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Has the league figured out Tomlin?

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Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Prosecutor » Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:51 am

2011 Pre-All Star ERA: 3.81
2011 Post-All Star ERA: 5.26
2012 ERA: 5.51

He's been consistently beat up for a year now. His walk rate is double what it was last year. He's also getting hammered in the first inning. Opposing batters are hitting .302 against him on pitches 1-15; last night was a great example. One-third of his walks this year have come in his first 15 pitches. It's taking him too long to get into his rhythm.

When he falls behind in the count he has no answer.

After 1-0: .350
After 2-0: .379
After 2-1: .346
After 3-1: 333

He's also been ineffective pitching with runners on.

Bases loaded: .500
Runners on: .323
Scoring position: .311

He's only effective when he gets ahead 0-1 or 0-2 in the count. And after the first inning.

The first half of last season he got by on impeccable control with all of his pitches. This year he seems to be nibbling, hence the doubling of the walk rate.

It's been a year. I'm not sure if he has an answer. If he doesn't figure something out, I don't see him in the rotation next year. He's looking like another Jeremy Sowers, a soft-tosser who had one good half-season before the league figured out how to hit him.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:06 pm

Not just from the All-Star break on last year, but June 1st on. Again, it's over 30 starts now and his ERA is well over 5. Yes, the league has figured out Tomlin. Had 2 really good months then has struggled since (kinda like Sowers). Still think he could be an effective 5, but nothing more really. Did like how he battled yesterday after that rough 1st inning.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Tondo » Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:39 pm

His FIP and xFIP though suggest that he's still the same pitcher...he is what he is a 4.5 ERA type of guy +/- 1 on good/bad spurts/years

I like his consistency though....he doesn't blow up completely, almost always gives you 5-6 innings and keeps his team in games more often than not...I know wins are a lousy stat, but I think with Tomlin it's no coincidence that he's 23-17 lifetime...add to that an above AVG career WHIP and you're looking at a BOR on a winning team

Not so sure about the theory that the league has figured him out as he had spurts of success in there....if anything, he blows up more often in between....maybe that's on him having too much confidence? Acta having too much confidence in him when he struggles? Anyway, I don't think he's going anywhere as I'm sure our staff loves his reliableness as much as I do
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Wed Jul 18, 2012 3:47 pm

Tondo wrote:I like his consistency though....he doesn't blow up completely, almost always gives you 5-6 innings and keeps his team in games more often than not...I know wins are a lousy stat, but I think with Tomlin it's no coincidence that he's 23-17 lifetime...add to that an above AVG career WHIP and you're looking at a BOR on a winning team

Tomlin is taxing the bullpen and the record streak of 29 straight games going 5+ innings is a distant memory. This year he's failed to make it through 5 innings three times already... he's only completed 7 innings four times. He also got lit up when he came in to replace Jeanmar Gomez in Tomlin's one relief appearance (when Gomez was ejected) and didn't give the team the innings they needed from him then either. He and Jimenez are half the problem with the front of the bullpen, because they both routinely force Acta to start using it by the 6th inning.

His quality start rate is 43%... league average is 49%. Maybe he's getting lucky and the team is keeping him in games, but he's doing nothing to keep the team in games.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby indians1 » Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:19 pm

and this is the guy we wouldn't trade boston for kevin youkilis.

The indians overvalue their mid-level prospects. Youkilis would have been that right handed bat with some power and gets on base.

If you can't replace josh tomlin, that is an indictment of this organization and tells you how bare we are of talent.

Instead we let him go to chicago and he is tearing it up.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby JP_Frost » Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:08 pm

In all fairness nobody would bring this up if Youkilis were hitting .220 or injured.

There never was much to figure out with Tomlin. He relies on control and command and when those aren't spot on, particularly his command, he gets hammered.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby indians1 » Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:39 pm

He is another jeremy sowers.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby JP_Frost » Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:50 pm

indians1 wrote:He is another jeremy sowers.


When his command is off ... yes.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Chiefroy » Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:52 pm

I don't know if the league has figured him out, but I think I have. I picked up JJ Hardy and Adam Jones in ESPN Baseball Challenge game and Hardy's got a 2-run dinger already. I have faith that Jones won't let me down. When's Lowe pitch again? I'm gonna load up on his ass.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:31 pm

Tomlin actually recorded two outs tonight before giving up the multi-run homer. Baby steps! By next week he'll be getting clear into the 2nd inning before putting the team in a huge hole.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:46 pm

Pork Chop Pough wrote:Tomlin actually recorded two outs tonight before giving up the multi-run homer. Baby steps! By next week he'll be getting clear into the 2nd inning before putting the team in a huge hole.


then again, instead of giving up a 2-run HR like the last 2 games, he gave up a 3-run HR.....building up to a grand slam....
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby MadThinker88 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:30 pm

Anyone got a breakdown on how Josh has done with Marson catching and how he has done with Santana catching? If so, please share.

I'm NOT suggesting that Josh does better or worse with one or the other. Rather I'm curious if there is a difference.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby martyinnewyork » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:43 pm

Tomlin is perfect when Luke Carlin is catching...
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Prosecutor » Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:23 am

1st inning ERA of 11.40 going into tonight's game, now it's worse than that.

Ridiculous. Whatever he's doing to get ready to pitch it isn't working. That pitch to Morneau missed the catcher's target by two feet and with Diamond pitching for the Twins, the game was over before we were out of the first inning.

It wouldn't surprise me if they gave Seddon or Kluber at shot at Tomlin's spot immediately and put Hernandez in for Lowe as soon as he's eligible to be activated.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:34 am

I've been a band wagon leader for Tomlin but even I could understand making a change.
Not sure it should be Kluber or Jeanmar Gomez getting the call or if Tomlin has a DL trip in his near future, but it's time for the FO to take some action before Josh's next scheduled start.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Prosecutor » Sat Jul 28, 2012 9:01 am

Yeah, I forgot Gomez. Candidates to replace Tomlin:

Kluber 3.54 ERA
Seddon 3.44
Gomez 3.15

As a reference, McAlister's ERA was 2.98 in his 11 starts for the Clippers.

I don't know if any of those guys would do better than Tomlin has done lately if they were promoted, but there's not a lot to lose by trying.

It's going to be an interesting few days. Possible trades at the deadline, maybe a change in the rotation, the Browns starting camp, and the Olympics getting underway. I've been waiting all year for this week.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:46 am

MadThinker88 wrote:Anyone got a breakdown on how Josh has done with Marson catching and how he has done with Santana catching? If so, please share.

I'm NOT suggesting that Josh does better or worse with one or the other. Rather I'm curious if there is a difference.

w/Santana: 8 g, 46 ip, 4.30 ERA, 4 hr, 9 bb, 21 so, .258/.296/.416
w/Marson: 8 g, 44 ip, 7.36 ERA, 10 hr, 10 bb, 28 so, .340/.378/.553
w/Carson: 1 g, 5 ip, 7.20 ERA, 2 hr, 2 bb, 4 so, .222/.300/.667

His ERA in the 1st inning is 12.38 (1st batter of the game: .563/.588/.875), and for the 5th inning it's 8.56. Those are not the numbers of someone who keeps his team in the ballgame.

The difference of who's behind the plate is really too large to ignore... although the way he's pitching, I personally don't think his numbers with Santana are sustainable. I don't want to see him start another game regardless of who's back there, but if he does, it needs to be Santana from here on out.

The most amazing thing to me is that the Twins have gotten 41 starts this year from guys with worse ERA's than Tomlin. Can you imagine having to watch something worse than Tomlin 41% of the time? It's incredible that the Twins have any fans left.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat Jul 28, 2012 11:22 am

It's easy to see the Tribe desperately needs another SP.
A couple "lesser" names the Tribe could look Aton trades are Paul Maholm and Joe Blanton. I'd prefer Maholm myself adding a lefty to the back of the rotation and likely at a lower cost ($).

Maholm is 9-6 with 3.88 era 113 ip 30 bb and 76 k. However he would be considered a rental bc he is a FA at seasons end.
Blanton is 8-8 with 4.70 era 126 ip 17 bb and 108 k. Blanton is also a FA at seasons end. But is in the last yr of big deal.
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Re: Has the league figured out Tomlin?

Postby ironmike » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:52 am

If Tomlin has options he needs to go back to Columbus and get things figured out, if he does, he comes back up in September.

Obviously he hasn't been able to adjust, and is pressing.
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