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Beyond the Fukodome

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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GhostofTedCox » Mon Sep 12, 2011 5:18 pm

Would you want KoFu back?

After watching him a while I thinks it's safe to say he is a reliable OF that plays the game well, with line drive type swing. He's not anything to write home about, but he probably is better than most, if not all, the OF we have.

He will not get anywhere near the $13 million he makes this year from anyone. Also, may need to fit a specific need for a team to even show much interest.

Who would be a better investment for 2012: KoFu or Sizemore?
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Sep 12, 2011 6:45 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:Would you want KoFu back?

After watching him a while I thinks it's safe to say he is a reliable OF that plays the game well, with line drive type swing. He's not anything to write home about, but he probably is better than most, if not all, the OF we have.

He will not get anywhere near the $13 million he makes this year from anyone. Also, may need to fit a specific need for a team to even show much interest.

Who would be a better investment for 2012: KoFu or Sizemore?
Kosuke Fukudome can become a FA after the end of this season. If the Indians were to offer him arbitration (IDK if his contract forbids offering arbitration.. there was a story or a collective of blather that so indicated that was the case), then the Indians would be required to offer him no less than $ 10.6 MM for 2012 season...and, of course, provided the Indians are permitted to make the offer under the tenets of his contract (if he declines, then the Indians may get a Compensation B draft pick). As a FA, it doesn't seem likely that Kosuke Fukudome would be offered that kind of money. So, the Indians would be wise to not offer a contract (regardless of his contract language) and attempt to sign him if they believe he can be had for a value that is commensurate with his abilities. In Fukudome's case no less than $ 5-8 MM a year.. less per year for multiple years, more for a single season... As of this writing, IDK what Grady can bring to the table for the rest of 2011.. or 2012, for that matter. That's the real issue. If he can regain his health and form, then $ 8.5 MM is a steal..if he cannot regain his health and form, then he's not even worth the buyout..
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby JP_Frost » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:35 am

Although Fukudome has been pretty solid for us lately, I really wouldn't pay him more than $3M per season. His production can easily be replaced by someone like Buck or Carrera imo. Fukudome has posted a wOBA of .301 with the Tribe and his defense in RF is okay, but he's pretty atrocious in CF, so I don't see the versatility.

I'd like to keep him as bench player/pinch hitter, but he'd have to accept a substantial paycut.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Edible14 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 4:59 pm

JP_Frost wrote:Although Fukudome has been pretty solid for us lately, I really wouldn't pay him more than $3M per season. His production can easily be replaced by someone like Buck or Carrera imo. Fukudome has posted a wOBA of .301 with the Tribe and his defense in RF is okay, but he's pretty atrocious in CF, so I don't see the versatility.

I'd like to keep him as bench player/pinch hitter, but he'd have to accept a substantial paycut.


I pretty much agree with this. He would end up getting a lot of playing time here for sure, but I just don't see the need.

That being said, we need to bring back either Grady or Kosuke OR we can sign somebody else. The free agent OF market isn't great. Maybe Willingham would be good, but if he's a type A and/or he commands a lot of money, that's probably not worth it. But we need somebody to go with Choo and Brantley as the starting OF. A lot of our depth in the OF is potentially evaporating this year with so many guys eligible for minor league free agency.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Prosecutor » Thu Sep 15, 2011 8:44 am

Fuko probably still sees himself as an everyday player, and he won't be an everyday player in Cleveland. The only reason we traded for him was because Choo got hurt. Next year Choo will be in right and Brantley in left. At 36 years old, Fuko is too old to play center except in spots. So unless he wants to be the 4th outfielder he's out.

The Tribe should decline Grady's option and try to sign him to a contract with a lower base and incentives for plate appearances. Next year he'll be a full year removed from his microfracture surgery and may be able to stay healthy enough to put up 400-500 plate appearances.

The 4th and possibly 5th outfielders can be chosen from Crowe, Carerra, and Duncan. The plan would be to play Grady about five days per week. On his days off either Carerra or Crowe would play center, or, put Duncan in left and move Brantley to center, depending on the pitcher.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GhostofTedCox » Thu Sep 15, 2011 9:37 am

Prosecutor wrote:Fuko probably still sees himself as an everyday player, and he won't be an everyday player in Cleveland. The only reason we traded for him was because Choo got hurt. Next year Choo will be in right and Brantley in left. At 36 years old, Fuko is too old to play center except in spots. So unless he wants to be the 4th outfielder he's out.

The Tribe should decline Grady's option and try to sign him to a contract with a lower base and incentives for plate appearances. Next year he'll be a full year removed from his microfracture surgery and may be able to stay healthy enough to put up 400-500 plate appearances.

The 4th and possibly 5th outfielders can be chosen from Crowe, Carerra, and Duncan. The plan would be to play Grady about five days per week. On his days off either Carerra or Crowe would play center, or, put Duncan in left and move Brantley to center, depending on the pitcher.


So going into the 2012 "Season of Contention" the OF would be:
Choo - coming off an injury plagued and very unproductive year
Maybe Sizemore - coming off another injury plagued and unproductive year
Brantley - coming off wrist surgery
Carrera - who needs Starbucks every inning so he stays awake and doesn't make stupid mistakes
Crowe - OF coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder
Duncan - nice guy, but the definition of a AAAA player

Money aside, Fukodome doesn't look too bad next to that bunch.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Sep 15, 2011 2:34 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:So going into the 2012 "Season of Contention" the OF would be:
Choo - coming off an injury plagued and very unproductive year
Maybe Sizemore - coming off another injury plagued and unproductive year
Brantley - coming off wrist surgery
Carrera - who needs Starbucks every inning so he stays awake and doesn't make stupid mistakes
Crowe - OF coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder
Duncan - nice guy, but the definition of a AAAA player

Money aside, Fukodome doesn't look too bad next to that bunch.


Money aside... The outfield the Indians project for 2012 clearly has uncertainty. That uncertainty may be the impetus for a FA acquisition or trade.. but what can be expected from the current team?

The starting outfield could be:

Shin-soo Choo: While it's pretty easy to make excuses about injuries causing his numbers to falter, up until this season, Choo was considered a bona-fide five tool, rising star for the Indians. There is no reason to expect anything less from him... perhaps a 140 games/550 AB's/.295 BA/.365 OBP/.855 OPS.. with 22 homers..

Grady Sizemore: IDK what to expect from him.. the guy we saw at the beginning of the year.. or the the guy after May 10th.. One thing does appear to be true from his latest limited appearances, he does seem to be healthy. 100 games?..that's about as far as any reasonable projection could be..

Michael Brantley appears to be a solid player and should improve. The hamate bone injury shouldn't have any bearing on his ability to contribute.. at all. The numbers to be expected from Brantley may be 110 games/400 AB's/.265 BA/.330 OBP/.720 OPS.. with as many as a dozen homers..

If Fukudome is retained, then the Indians will be that much better off for having a solid veteran back up, but it does give rise to the 'over left-handedness' of the OF. Fukudome or a player of his ilk could be part of the backup outfield corp. Players, in addition to possibly Fukudome who be part of this include a FA/Trade Acquisition, Crowe, Carrera, Duncan and / or Neal. Combined, these guys, some who will be in the minors for at least part of the season would contribute a cumulative 140 games/550 AB's/.245 BA/.305 OBP/.700 OPS..and a combined 22 homers.

Most of these numbers are thought out guesses.. A killer in the OF could be the biggest difference maker for the Indians in the off season, but, there is no reason to discount the potential that guy(s) is already present (Choo & Grady)...
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Prosecutor » Sat Sep 17, 2011 9:27 am

GhostofTedCox wrote:
So going into the 2012 "Season of Contention" the OF would be:
Choo - coming off an injury plagued and very unproductive year
Maybe Sizemore - coming off another injury plagued and unproductive year
Brantley - coming off wrist surgery
Carrera - who needs Starbucks every inning so he stays awake and doesn't make stupid mistakes
Crowe - OF coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder
Duncan - nice guy, but the definition of a AAAA player

Money aside, Fukodome doesn't look too bad next to that bunch.


Fuko will want to start. He's not a backup - yet. He's too old to be an everyday centerfielder, and that's not his best position anyway. So who would you prefer in right field - Choo or Fukodome? Fuk is going to hit .280 with 8-10 HRs tops. I believe Choo will get back to his 2009-2010 form, in which he hit .300 with 20 HRs and 20 SBs, plus led the league in assists and kept a lot of runners from trying to score from second on a single. I don't think there's a team in baseball that would Fuko over Choo in right field.

If you did, what would you do with Choo? Make him a bench player? Trade him to make room for a 36-year-old corner outfielder who won't hit 10 HRs?

Brantley or Fuko in left? Brantley will be 100% as he did not have a wrist injury. It's normal for hitters to have the hamate bone removed with no adverse effects. His career is still arcing upward. He'll hit .280 like Fuko, and give you more speed in the bargain. Plus, Fuko never played left field before this season.

I don't see the Tribe offering Fuko a starting job over Brantley or Choo, and he's not an everyday center fielder. He won't want the 4th OF job, and even if he did, the Tribe already has three left-handed bats. They don't need a 4th.

If it's between Fuko and Crowe, or Fuko and Careera, then I agree - he doesn't look bad. But it's not, unless he no longer sees himself as an everyday player and is looking to take less money and not play regularly, which I doubt is his plan for next year.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GhostofTedCox » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:05 pm

Prosecutor wrote:
GhostofTedCox wrote:
So going into the 2012 "Season of Contention" the OF would be:
Choo - coming off an injury plagued and very unproductive year
Maybe Sizemore - coming off another injury plagued and unproductive year
Brantley - coming off wrist surgery
Carrera - who needs Starbucks every inning so he stays awake and doesn't make stupid mistakes
Crowe - OF coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder
Duncan - nice guy, but the definition of a AAAA player

Money aside, Fukodome doesn't look too bad next to that bunch.


Fuko will want to start. He's not a backup - yet. He's too old to be an everyday centerfielder, and that's not his best position anyway. So who would you prefer in right field - Choo or Fukodome? Fuk is going to hit .280 with 8-10 HRs tops. I believe Choo will get back to his 2009-2010 form, in which he hit .300 with 20 HRs and 20 SBs, plus led the league in assists and kept a lot of runners from trying to score from second on a single. I don't think there's a team in baseball that would Fuko over Choo in right field.

If you did, what would you do with Choo? Make him a bench player? Trade him to make room for a 36-year-old corner outfielder who won't hit 10 HRs?

Brantley or Fuko in left? Brantley will be 100% as he did not have a wrist injury. It's normal for hitters to have the hamate bone removed with no adverse effects. His career is still arcing upward. He'll hit .280 like Fuko, and give you more speed in the bargain. Plus, Fuko never played left field before this season.

I don't see the Tribe offering Fuko a starting job over Brantley or Choo, and he's not an everyday center fielder. He won't want the 4th OF job, and even if he did, the Tribe already has three left-handed bats. They don't need a 4th.

If it's between Fuko and Crowe, or Fuko and Careera, then I agree - he doesn't look bad. But it's not, unless he no longer sees himself as an everyday player and is looking to take less money and not play regularly, which I doubt is his plan for next year.


Right now, even with expanded rosters, we can't get Fuko off the field. So let's look to 2012.
In a perfect world we acquire a 25 HR 90 RBI guy to play OF either through trade or FA. But the probabilities of that are no more than 40% (even with an aggressive FO). Plus, there is no everyday bat in the system above Kinston. Most likely we would acquire either a over-the-hill type, or a Jason Michaels type. So is there room for Fuko? You bet there is. You can give some of Sizemore's money to him. Sizemore is gone most likely. With our fragile and questionable OF, Fuko might still wind up with the most AB's even as the 4th OF.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Prosecutor » Sun Sep 18, 2011 8:55 am

Here's what Terry Pluto had to say about Sizemore in the PD this morning:

1. No final decisions have been made on the contract options for Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona. Here's what I believe the Indians will do: They will pick up Sizemore's $9 million option. Carmona's $7 million is not as certain, but the odds favor him returning.

2. The Indians know Sizemore has missed more games in three years than he has played. They also believe he has a decent chance of being healthy for most of next season. Their problem is lack of depth in the outfield. They believe Michael Brantley is -- at best -- average in center field. They'd rather play him in left, where he grades high defensively.

3. Nor are there any other center field prospects at the top level of the farm system ready for 2012. Alternatives on the roster are Zeke Carrera and Trevor Crowe. Kosuke Fukadome is a free agent at the end of the season, but considered best in right field.

4. At least eight teams are supposed to be looking for center fielders in 2012. That means the price for one will be high. If the Indians pass on Sizemore's option, they believe another team will probably pick him up at that price range. This is the era where the average payroll is close to $100 million, even if the Tribe's payroll moves from about $50 million to $70 million in 2012.

5. I'd offer Sizemore a contract with a $3 million base and lots of incentives. It can even be hooked into a lucrative long-term deal if he plays 120 games, or some other indication of durability. But my guess is the Tribe will simply pick up the option because they believe there will be a healthy market for Sizemore, despite all his injuries.

My comment:

I didn't realize that "at least eight teams" will be looking for a CF this off-season. The Indians don't have anybody who qualifies as a starting CF at the major league level other than Grady. He'll have six months to continue to rehab and strengthen his knee. If Pluto is right and they either exercise his option or get him to sign a deal with incentives, then the OF is Brantley, Sizemore, and Choo. Fukodome would be an excellent choice as the 4th outfielder, but do you really think he would sign with Cleveland if the Indians pick up Grady's option? The Indians pitch would have to be, "Sign with us and you can play center twice a week until somebody gets hurt, then you'll play every day." Think he'll jump at that deal?
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:34 am

The story by Pluto has a bit of a "trap" attached to it.. something any reader of a story from the Plain DULL should be aware of.. that is..

In the event the Indians do not pickup the option(s) on the players indicated..and the players go elsewhere and, for whatever reason, have healthy and/or productive seasons, then the writer can point to Mr Dolan as being cheap.. again.. If the the player(s) go elsewhere and have the same kind of seasons they've had over the last three (2008-2011), then nary a word will be printed...

As far as Terry Pluto's analysis, It's pretty basic or, it' not exactly earth shattering or unique. This could make one of Crowe/Carrera/Brantley potential trading chips.. alone, none will bring the kind of offensive impact player the Indians are looking for, but, in a package, could be more than interesting.. Interesting to note that there are eight (8) teams looking for a CF'er:

AL East: None
AL Central: None
AL West: Athletics (Coco Crisp - FA)

NL East: Nats (Rick Ankiel - FA)
NL Central: Cubs (Marlon Byrd - FA)
NL West: None

Looks like three.. not eight.. While the statement "looking for" as opposed to actively pursuing or having a deal in progress isn't the same thing. The statement is, at best, ubiquitous..
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:45 pm

I'd definitely throw the Giants in the looking for a CF category. 3 guys have started 10 or more games there...one was Rowand who they cut, one is Ross (a free agent who is more a cOFer), and Andres Torres and his .307 OBP. Torres is under team control for a while, but is he really starting material for them? meh, maybe...but they need offense and they'll be looking for upgrades all over that OF.

Marlins could be looking at CFers. Coghlan had a good rookie year and decent last year in LF, but injuried this year in his first stint in CF. Didn't have the best range before he got hurt in CF...Fish could move Logan Morrison (seems to be a lot of tension there, similar to the Rasmus situation in St. Louis) and put Coghlan back in LF if they see a CFer they like.

I'd never rule out the White Sox either. Rios could easily move to RF (or LF). Pierre is a free agent so could be in the market for an outfielder, especially one with leadoff experience (ie, Grady if he's on the open market). They obviously could just go with Viciedo in LF but personally wouldn't rule anything out there. Grady and Dunn in the same lineup.....not sure if they'd offset global warming or if they'd set the stage for mass tornadoes in the midwest with the breeze created by the wiffs.

Cardinals have Jay but if they lose Berkman (and/or Pujols) could move him to RF and look at adding a CFer. Obivously their concentration will be on Pujols and brinigng back Berkman though moreso than CF.

Mets have Angel Pagan for 1 more year but hole in RF (unless F-Mart takes it) and could look to upgrade as Pagan has been trending downward for 2 years now.

And of course if the Indians were to decline Grady's optoin, could throw them into that mix too.

At least, 8 teams looking for CFers seems very reasonable actually.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GhostofTedCox » Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:46 pm

No team, whether they need a CF or not, is willing to take a $8 million gamble with their payroll. The Indians would be insane to do that. Pluto usually makes sense, but I think he is way off on this.

Sizemore shows no indication that he could stay healthy for a whole season. And if he could, his skills seems to have eroded as well. If I recall, his injuries this year were caused by normal baseball activities, like sliding into a base, not any spectacular play.

I haven't scanned any rosters lately, but I can guarantee there are better ways to use $8 million.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:00 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:No team, whether they need a CF or not, is willing to take a $8 million gamble with their payroll. The Indians would be insane to do that. Pluto usually makes sense, but I think he is way off on this.

Sizemore shows no indication that he could stay healthy for a whole season. And if he could, his skills seems to have eroded as well. If I recall, his injuries this year were caused by normal baseball activities, like sliding into a base, not any spectacular play.

I haven't scanned any rosters lately, but I can guarantee there are better ways to use $8 million.


If you decline his option though, he may take less money to go elswhere. Everyone loves to say we can match any offer someone else makes...but he's not a restricted free agent like in football, he can leave if he wants. Only way to really guarantee he's back (if you want him obviously) is to pick up the option. Maybe you work out some sort of handshake agreement before you have to pick it up or decline it and make the base less with bigger incentives. But if you decline grady's option...he probably walks. And if he does...what do you do with that $8.5M you saved? Yeah maybe you get lucky with a Berkman like signing....or could end up with Guerrero....and that's if you can convince a guy like that to come to Cleveland.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:05 pm

There is absolutely no way the Indians should pay Sizemore $9M next year. He can do all the rehab and stuff he wants in the offseason, but there is no guarantee that he will ever be the player he once was. He has had injury issues the last three years....why suddenly would they go away next season? If they can bring him back for a restructured deal of $3-4M then yeah, maybe....otherwise, just pass and look at other alternatives.

And really, at this point, is Sizemore even an above average defender in CF still? Is he THAT much better than Brantley now? Also, even if they pick up the option the glaring hole in CF is still there after next season. Might as well be proactive and try to fix that problem now if possible or search for solutions. That time is coming regardless, so no good in putting it off especially considering the health concerns of the player involved.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:41 pm

TonyIPI wrote:There is absolutely no way the Indians should pay Sizemore $9M next year. He can do all the rehab and stuff he wants in the offseason, but there is no guarantee that he will ever be the player he once was. He has had injury issues the last three years....why suddenly would they go away next season? If they can bring him back for a restructured deal of $3-4M then yeah, maybe....otherwise, just pass and look at other alternatives.

And really, at this point, is Sizemore even an above average defender in CF still? Is he THAT much better than Brantley now? Also, even if they pick up the option the glaring hole in CF is still there after next season. Might as well be proactive and try to fix that problem now if possible or search for solutions. That time is coming regardless, so no good in putting it off especially considering the health concerns of the player involved.


Sizemore represents one player in the Indians system that has the potential to be an impact bat either at the top of the order and or in the middle / bottom of the order ( batting in the sixth or seventh spot in the order?) At a time when the Indians are expecting to compete for a division, having that kind of player in that role gives the Indians a better chance to achieve this goal.. Making the statement that the Indians should "do something else" lacks substance. Possible "searches for solutions"??? Really? No.. REALLY????.. Do you honestly think this is the time for that kind of open ended decision under the guise of being "proactive"? Grady's option is $ 1.0 MM more than what the Indians are paying him for 2010. While his salary represents a good portion of the Indians total payroll, it still JUST MONEY. It doesn't cost the Indians prospects that are the life blood of future pennant contending teams. More importantly, picking up Grady's option creates GOOD PUBLIC RELATIONS for the Indians on the North Coast. If he can come back, it would be a boost the the offensively starved lineup.. In short, Grady's option should be picked up... PERIOD. It wouldn't be a HUGE surprise to get a press release within a week or so of the end of the season from the Indians Front Office announcing that Grady's contract option has been picked..
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby martyinnewyork » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:39 pm

I have given up on the idea of Grady ever being back to his old self...
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby criznit2009 » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:58 pm

I too has given up on Grady ever being a solid contributor, I have for some time. You cannot pick up his option at 9 mil based on what you have got out of him the last 2-3 seasons. Thats throwing money down a sewer in a black hole.. Wasn't he supposed to healthy this year any way?!? If you can rework (phone calls/handshakes) great! I like Grady for about 4-6 mil at most. Think of it - 9mil from grady to spend on FA, then 7 for Carmona( or trade or keep-all moves im ok with)... If the owner throws in around 6 mil for FA's you will have a nice chunk for a RH OF hitter and/or a solid SP even... I wonder what a 2-3 yr deal with Willingham would look like...Prolly a little better than the one Grady ends up getting?? Maybe??

As for Fukudome, he has been nice but in a relatively injury-free (if one exist...)indians outfield he wouldn't be the best of fits.. Besides we would get outbid on him IMO.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:13 pm

TonyIPI wrote:There is absolutely no way the Indians should pay Sizemore $9M next year. He can do all the rehab and stuff he wants in the offseason, but there is no guarantee that he will ever be the player he once was. He has had injury issues the last three years....why suddenly would they go away next season? If they can bring him back for a restructured deal of $3-4M then yeah, maybe....otherwise, just pass and look at other alternatives.

And really, at this point, is Sizemore even an above average defender in CF still? Is he THAT much better than Brantley now? Also, even if they pick up the option the glaring hole in CF is still there after next season. Might as well be proactive and try to fix that problem now if possible or search for solutions. That time is coming regardless, so no good in putting it off especially considering the health concerns of the player involved.

I understand Hermie's point about no FAs wanting to come to Cleveland but there is always a trade. Cleveland is rebuilding and Sizemore is even worse defensively in CF than offensively from what I see. Worse than any of the other options IMO, even Crowe. I still have not seen a good reason to delay Grady's inevitable departure. If you were going to definitely get back the offensive and defensive prowess of 2007 Grady, a case might be made although I would trade him then. But I think we all know that the odds are long against seeing that Grady. I think your analysis is spot on Tony. :good:
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby nubballguy » Tue Sep 20, 2011 12:20 pm

I think the FO should offer Grady a reworked deal based on his current fair market value (maybe $3 million?) loaded with incentives such that, based on performance, he can earn something approximating what he would have gotten if his option was picked up. The Indians have had a lot of success over the recent past with guys like Millwood and Pavano in structuring deals like this. Perhaps they offer him a 2 year, incentive laden deal with an out clause for 2013 to make it more palatable for Grady.

Bottom line, I think he's the cheapest, best upside option on the market, makes good PR and business sense and the savings from his salary can go to locking up one of the younger guys like Acab or Masterson to a long term deal.

I also think guys like Choo, RPerez and Joe Smith (and even CPerez in the right circumstance though unlikely) should be moved now for a RH bat, preferably a RF'er. That said though, I am intrigued by Thomas Neal and would love to see him rise up and seize the opportunity in '12.

And there's no way they bring FuKu or Thome back next year. Those were playoff drive pick ups only. Unless they find a way to move Hafner (keep Thome if he's not retiring) somehow so I guess never say never.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby daingean » Tue Sep 20, 2011 12:48 pm

nubballguy wrote:I think the FO should offer Grady a reworked deal based on his current fair market value (maybe $3 million?) loaded with incentives such that, based on performance, he can earn something approximating what he would have gotten if his option was picked up. The Indians have had a lot of success over the recent past with guys like Millwood and Pavano in structuring deals like this. Perhaps they offer him a 2 year, incentive laden deal with an out clause for 2013 to make it more palatable for Grady.

Bottom line, I think he's the cheapest, best upside option on the market, makes good PR and business sense and the savings from his salary can go to locking up one of the younger guys like Acab or Masterson to a long term deal.

I also think guys like Choo, RPerez and Joe Smith (and even CPerez in the right circumstance though unlikely) should be moved now for a RH bat, preferably a RF'er. That said though, I am intrigued by Thomas Neal and would love to see him rise up and seize the opportunity in '12.

And there's no way they bring FuKu or Thome back next year. Those were playoff drive pick ups only. Unless they find a way to move Hafner (keep Thome if he's not retiring) somehow so I guess never say never.


Wondering if resigning Grady to a lower base will really be that easy. If he rejects it, we either decline his option making him a FA or pick up his option and overpay. The power then sits in Grady's lap and you don't know if he wants to stay (taking a $3mil) or looks elsewhere.

I agree no way on Fuku and Thome although there is a chance on Fuku but we cannot afford to offer arby to him. It will be bidding on him against others. This team cannot afford 2 DH only guys with a 25 man roster.

OF/1B guy is what this team needs. Certainly down the road when Choo leaves for FA, we will need a RF but not next year. A corner OF/1B like Berkman or Willingham would give this team some flexibility and if they don't resign Grady then we could use both an OF and a 1B. Our team showed that with some key additions we could win the division next year. Once in the playoffs anything can happen.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Tue Sep 20, 2011 1:10 pm

daingean wrote:Wondering if resigning Grady to a lower base will really be that easy. If he rejects it, we either decline his option making him a FA or pick up his option and overpay. The power then sits in Grady's lap and you don't know if he wants to stay (taking a $3mil) or looks elsewhere.

Does anyone seriously think that some team is going to offer Sizemore a multi-year deal and/or any significant guaranteed money? I'll be shocked if Cleveland picks up his option, and my guess is that they're already working out a incentive-laden deal for next year, possibly with one side getting an option for 2013. If Sizemore isn't interested in that, his other option is going to be packing up and moving on, with the hopes to cash in next year with a different team that will only be offering something similar. Unless he's delusional (and Terry Pluto obviously is), I think the outcome is obvious. The only way I see Grady not coming back on an incentive-laden deal is if the Indians are simply ready to move on, but considering the upside he could provide at a lowered cost, as nubballguy pointed out, that would surprise me as well.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:04 pm

Pork Chop Pough wrote:
daingean wrote:Wondering if resigning Grady to a lower base will really be that easy. If he rejects it, we either decline his option making him a FA or pick up his option and overpay. The power then sits in Grady's lap and you don't know if he wants to stay (taking a $3mil) or looks elsewhere.

Does anyone seriously think that some team is going to offer Sizemore a multi-year deal and/or any significant guaranteed money? I'll be shocked if Cleveland picks up his option, and my guess is that they're already working out a incentive-laden deal for next year, possibly with one side getting an option for 2013. If Sizemore isn't interested in that, his other option is going to be packing up and moving on, with the hopes to cash in next year with a different team that will only be offering something similar. Unless he's delusional (and Terry Pluto obviously is), I think the outcome is obvious. The only way I see Grady not coming back on an incentive-laden deal is if the Indians are simply ready to move on, but considering the upside he could provide at a lowered cost, as nubballguy pointed out, that would surprise me as well.


First off.. go waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out on a limb and assume Grady Sizemore will be healthy through the end of the 2011 season. In other words, he show signs that he is not injured. I don't care what kind of numbers he puts up..just that he can go out on the field.. take his four or five AB's and that he can make the routine plays for the 7 or 8 games left in THIS season..

What then.. healthy and ready to work his way back into playing form.. for $ 8.5..

IF the Indians were to go out and get a "Tier B" not bargain basemen.. not Carlos Beltran/Werth/J DL Drew/Etc.... but a Tier B guy, like Willingham.. it's a $ 4 - 6 MM deal..

Is the cost in PR & the potential that Grady can bring.. not worth the $ 3.5 MM.. Does Grady not have the potential to be bring the biggest impact to the order?.. All for the difference of $ 3.5 MM.. It's easy to say.. just get rid of the guy, people do it all the time.. in Fantasy Baseball..IRL.. Grady's option will be picked up.. he'll be healthy.. and he'll play out his option..

Ask yourself.. why would Grady want to sign an incentive laden deal for a year with the Indians for less than half what he's making now?..Because he was injured and wants to make it up to the club (note the tense..).. ????
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Sep 20, 2011 10:29 pm

If the Indians bring back Sizemore, they essentially bring back the same offense in 2012. The same one which is prone to huge hot/cold spells, is a record-setting strikeout machine, and is pretty injury prone. With Sizemore back, it really only leaves first base as a position to improve in the offseason....which if they get an everyday guy there means Santana behind the plate full time (something I know a lot of people don't like).

The offense needs some changes. Time to make some tough decisions. That starts with cutting the cord with Sizemore.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Wed Sep 21, 2011 3:59 am

GeronimoSon wrote:Ask yourself.. why would Grady want to sign an incentive laden deal for a year with the Indians for less than half what he's making now?..Because he was injured and wants to make it up to the club (note the tense..).. ????

Ask yourself "Who the *bleep* is going to guarantee Sizemore $8.5 million next year?" No one wants to take a pay cut and sign an incentive laden deal, but that's where his career is currently at. Sure, there's a slim chance that some team gets foolish and guarantees him something similar to the option, but if you start making decisions based on the possibility of a foolish team, then you've just made yourself the foolish team. I don't expect you to pick up on this since you somehow missed it being the main point of my previous point, but they can offer him a lower base with incentives because that's going to be what's on the table from every other team that makes him an offer. If he wants to pack up and leave for a similar deal with another team (where he'll have to bounce back before he's a fan favorite... where the team doesn't have the time and emotion invested in his career, and may not give him as long of a leash), so be it, but it wouldn't make much sense for him. I wouldn't expect him to be thrilled about a short-term low base contract, but he'll have to go out and perform next year in order to cash in again in any scenario.

Now if the Indians still want to sign him to a deal for next season seems to be the bigger question.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Prosecutor » Wed Sep 21, 2011 9:40 am

I'd think Grady would want to stay in the AL where he can DH from time to time in order to give his knees a break while keeping his bat in the lineup. He still wants to play every day. Since Hafner is probably not an every day player at this point it might work out well.

I suppose Oakland might be a possibility since he's from the west coast. But all things being equal, you'd think he'd want to stay here. Nobody is going to offer him $9 million; I think Pluto is wrong about that. But the Indians expect to contend next year and I'm pretty sure they don't want Carerra or Crowe starting in center field. Possibly Brantley, but that would involve trading for a left fielder. Another option would be to let Grady go, move Brantley to center and sign Fukodome to play left, but I'd be surprised if that happens. Too many left-handed bats, no power, and Fuk has never played left.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby daingean » Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:46 am

Prosecutor wrote:I'd think Grady would want to stay in the AL where he can DH from time to time in order to give his knees a break while keeping his bat in the lineup. He still wants to play every day. Since Hafner is probably not an every day player at this point it might work out well.

I suppose Oakland might be a possibility since he's from the west coast. But all things being equal, you'd think he'd want to stay here. Nobody is going to offer him $9 million; I think Pluto is wrong about that. But the Indians expect to contend next year and I'm pretty sure they don't want Carerra or Crowe starting in center field. Possibly Brantley, but that would involve trading for a left fielder. Another option would be to let Grady go, move Brantley to center and sign Fukodome to play left, but I'd be surprised if that happens. Too many left-handed bats, no power, and Fuk has never played left.


Things happen in the FA market. Sometimes players want a change in scenery. Sometimes other teams offer more than what we expect. It's a volatile market. It would not surprise me if someone like Seattle offers the moon.
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Wed Sep 21, 2011 1:59 pm

Let's assume there was a nameless formerly good outfielder from another team who became a free agent. His stats over the last 3 years were: .234/.314/.414 while averaging 70 games per year due to multiple injuries. Is any team guaranteeing that guy $8-$9 million next season? Would you want the Indians to be the team that does?
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Re: Beyond the Fukodome

Postby daingean » Wed Sep 21, 2011 2:21 pm

Pork Chop Pough wrote:Let's assume there was a nameless formerly good outfielder from another team who became a free agent. His stats over the last 3 years were: .234/.314/.414 while averaging 70 games per year due to multiple injuries. Is any team guaranteeing that guy $8-$9 million next season? Would you want the Indians to be the team that does?


I hear ya. I'm just pointing out the flaw in thinking that if you decline his option that you can easily resign him to a lower contract. My guess is if he is declined he would definitely look elsewhere and some team (i.e. Cubs or Mariners...who have shown some poor judgement in spending $$$) get in a bidding war for him. After all, he was one of the top players in the game just a few years ago.
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