Official 2011 MLB Draft thread

[petes999]

I was a bit hard on the Lowery pick as I didn't see that much upside hearing that he did his damage in a hitter friendly park and not in the best conference. But, he did get 1st team All-America as a DH (catcher went to Florida's guy) per BA.

"Lowery's 91 RBIs are the most by a college player since Buster Posey's 93 in 2008. He also ranked second in the nation in homers and fourth in triples (eight), threw out 43 percent of basestealers and led JMU to a runner-up finish in the Chapel Hill Regional."

And, when it was said that he wasn't good defensively and may not stay at catcher, it's hard to believe that a guy can throw out 43% - nimble enough to get up and throw in 2 seconds ... can't block the plate at least decently.

Also Mylles got 2nd team. Roth got 1st team as well but sounds like he isn't signing.

[TitoFrancona]

I was a bit hard on the Lowery pick as I didn't see that much upside hearing that he did his damage in a hitter friendly park and not in the best conference. But, he did get 1st team All-America as a DH (catcher went to Florida's guy) per BA.

"Lowery's 91 RBIs are the most by a college player since Buster Posey's 93 in 2008. He also ranked second in the nation in homers and fourth in triples (eight), threw out 43 percent of basestealers and led JMU to a runner-up finish in the Chapel Hill Regional."

And, when it was said that he wasn't good defensively and may not stay at catcher, it's hard to believe that a guy can throw out 43% - nimble enough to get up and throw in 2 seconds ... can't block the plate at least decently.

Also Mylles got 2nd team. Roth got 1st team as well but sounds like he isn't signing.

Wasn't a huge fan of this pick but didn't hate it either. Dennis went off on it saying he was taken 6 rds too soon. Yet most of the scouting and analysts said he would probably go between rd 4 & 6 so I guess it wasnt a huge reach.

But I do recall reading one report that said he hit pretty well and with power on the road too. But the scouting reports I have seen on him do seem to question whether his power will translate to proball or not.

[homerawayfromhome]

I actually saw one projection of Lowery as a third rd pk and another mock as a third. Half of his hrs came on the road that should be considered.

[Lloyd Christmas]

Lowery
14 HRs in 29 home games
10 HRs in 32 non-home games

[Rocky55]

Lowery
14 HRs in 29 home games
10 HRs in 32 non-home games

Plus, in road games:
11 of his 22 doubles
4 of his eight triples

Total of 25 of his 54 XBH on the road. More than half of Jake's hits went for extras. The guy had 3(!) errors all year, for a .994 FP. He was arguably the best college hitter this season. First team All-American as a DH. One of 3 finalists for the Johnny Bench award (an aside, they named the college catcher of the year award after a guy who didn't go to college).

If you told me before the draft that we'd get maybe the best hitter in college ball, a Junior, at a skill position like catcher, a player with production, tools, athleticism, projection, all in the 4th Round, for probably not a whole lot of money, I'd have asked "Where do I sign"!

No guarantees with prospects but I'm looking forward to following this kid's career. Hopefully another building block for a championship team.

[petes999]

The issue though with Lowery is that his competition wasn't all that great ... They did play NC twice in the regionals where he went 2 for 9 and 3 for 4 against Florida International. So, when people say will his power project, I think we have focused on his friendly hitter park but it may also be due to the fact of who he has faced. Hopefully, we will soon find out in MV ...

[OhioBaseball]

I'm fine with the Lowery selection. I don't know about the park, but power numbers were down across the board in college baseball this year with the new bats. In the face of that offensive challenge, Lowery had a ton of extra base hits. It would make for an interesting study, but I would guess that offensive stats in college baseball will begin to correlate with pro stats in a tighter fashion going forward.

The ballpark is not really a concern of mine. The two things that concern me about Lowery are; (1) he pretty much sucked as a freshman and sophomore and (2) he struck out a lot throughout his college career. The strike outs against the generally mediocre pitching he faced at James Madison is concerning to me.

Regardless, at 128th or wherever in the draft, it's hard to get great prospects. Getting players with extra base capabilities at skill positions is normally a good thing.

[TonyIBI]

Dennis went off on it saying he was taken 6 rds too soon. Yet most of the scouting and analysts said he would probably go between rd 4 & 6 so I guess it wasnt a huge reach.

Big surprise. Where is he posting, Scout.com?

[GeronimoSon]

After good pitching.. the next most important commodity to have is good catching. With Santana & Marson at the ML level, two "vet" journeymen at Columbus (Carlin & Phillips), one prospect at AA Akron (Chen) and the trio of Roberto Perez, Alex Monsalve and Alex Lavisky in the lower levels of minor league ball, adding Lowery shores up a relatively thin area in the Indians system..

Good signing and good luck to him...

[OhioBaseball]

Dillon Peters' start tonight was televised over the net. I was only able to catch 2-3 innings of it (he threw a lot of pitches in these innings, though) before I had to leave, but nonetheless got a nice look at him. Peters really struggled with his control; I'm not sure but I wouldn't be surprised if he was pitching on short rest. Regardless, I don't think it's all that concerning at this point.

He's a short guy, but I don't think that matters much. His pitches work fine despite his height. He's obviously been developed by a pitching instructor that knows what he's doing. Peters has a very nice arm action and delivery, and while he's (1) not tall and (2) his velocities aren't going to excite you, his fastball seems to dart and it has some deception (I realize he was going vs. high school hitters, but I really think his FB will ride up on guys at the higher levels quicker than what the velo indicates). He has a good curveball that is obviously spun very well and it gets good depth, which is another reason why I don't think his height is much of an issue.

I think Peters is a good pitcher, but there's no physical projection here. I don't think he was comfortable with his change-up, so that could be a pitch he develops and improves his arsenal, but there's not much coming as far as physical maturation (if anything, keeping his weight under control could be an issue for him; he's got wide hips, wide thighs, generally unathletic body build). To me, the one guy that he reminds me of is a guy I saw a ton of when he was at Ohio State; former Indians 3rd rounder Scott Lewis. Lewis was thin and Peters is bulky, and I think Peters' delivery is more traditional, but they are quite similar pitchers. (one of Lewis' problems was a lack of height and a relatively weak body frame, which may have done him in. Peters would be categorized as a "bad body" guy by most scouts, but he may be more durable)

Scott Lewis consistently threw 87-91 when I saw him (similar to Peters) and he was never a projectable pitcher (small body frame), but the thing I loved about him was his ability to throw his fastball by hitters frequently. Lewis was deceptive and he also had a tall arm slot (taller than Peters), to go with advanced breaking stuff. His fastball had a deceptive darting thing going for it, and he'd even throw it by guys upstairs. I think Dillon Peters has this attribute, as well.

I know what you're probably thinking, "Scott Lewis sucked and never amounted to anything". It's true he never really made it, but I think that's due mostly to injuries. Had Lewis been healthy, he probably would have been a respectable 3 or 4 starter IMO. If you look at Lewis' minor league numbers, they were good and the guy struck batters out in the upper levels despite below avg. FB velocity. To me, Lewis had a good slurve and change-up, and he demonstrated good control throughout his career in college and the pros. Peters definitely did not show good control when I saw him (only two innings), but I would not be surprised if he's got good control.

Although he I understand he did not do well tonight (found out his team lost and he gave up 5 runs?), I like Dillon Peters in a Scott Lewis kind of way. Peters is not a high upside guy, but he could be a sneaky quick, pitchability guy with a plus curveball that is able to get K's above A-ball. The problem is that he reportedly wants 1st round money, which is more than he's worth at this point. I frankly think he may have difficulty being a 1st round pick even after college b/c he's not a radar gun guy (never will be), he's not projectable and he's got a below avg. body. Go back and look at past drafts; there are definitely exceptions (Mike Leake comes to mind as a short guy w/o good velo), but you just won't find many low projection, sub 6' pitchers that can't top out in at least the mid 90's. I don't mean to knock on the guy b/c I like him, but that's generally how it is.

His advisor may be talking "first round money", but I think that's optimistic. If Peters gets a $800k or so offer (I consider this a strong offer) from the Indians, he should take it unless he is in love with going to college in Austin. He's not an awesome, upside prospect and he was not a top 100 draft prospect on any lists I saw. For what its worth, the guy has a twitter page with the MLB emblem as the background rather than a Texas Longhorn.

Overall; a good pitcher, nice prospect. His upside is a weak 3/strong 4 starter IMO. $1 million would be overspending. I wouldn't expect him to make a lot of BA top prospect lists as a minor leaguer, but he could develop into a good SP down the line.

[IndyDave]

My son and I were at all 4 Indiana championship games including Peters game.

The semi-state games were played the previous Saturday so Peters had a full week's rest. If anything he was likely pitching on too much rest. The start of the game was delayed more than 90 minutes by rain. The teams never started warming up before the rain came.

Game story from Indianapolis Star with quotes from Peters about the game

Edit - i can't post a link in first post - IndyStar dot com has the story - High School / Preps section