2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - Outfielders

[osueddy]

I'll be posting over the next week a report ranking the Indians prospects at each position and an overall report on the position. I'll be using the same rules as Tony concerning eligibility for prospects (50 IP, 130 AB, and played stateside). The age next to the players name is for next season using the July 1 cut-off date.

Outfielders Not Eligible: Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley, Austin Kearns, Trevor Crowe, Travis Buck

Prospect Ranking (Outfielders):
1.) LeVon Washington (19)
2.) Nick Weglarz (23)
3.) Abner Abreu (21)
4.) Matt McBride (26)
5.) Delvi Cid (21)
6.) Bo Greenwell (22)
7.) Tyler Holt (22)
8.) Jordan Henry (23)
9.) Ezequiel Carrera (24)
10.) John Drennen (24)
11.) Jerad Head (28)
12.) Jason Smit (21)
13.) Tim Fedroff (24)
14.) Chad Huffman (26)
15.) Donnie Webb (25)

I've ranked 15 outfielders so it would be comparable to the five I ranked at the other positions. Picking between #1 and #2 was tough, but I went with Washington due to his five-tool prospects. Through some injuries, Weglarz is still producing (.897 OPS last year). I would like to see him stay healthy this year and push for a starting spot with the Tribe in 2012. I know the Indians may move Sizemore to left, but what if Brantley struggles and Weglarz is ready in '12. Would Sizemore move right back to centerfield? That's an interesting problem. I'm still high on Abreu despite his terrible BB/K rate (20/130). After those three, I think you could move the rankings around 4-9. The Indians will be losing Sizemore and Choo in a few years and hopefully Weglarz and either Abreu/Washington/Greenwell will have developed into players that can fill their spots when that time comes.

Didn't Make the Cut:
Aaron Siliga (18)
Mark Brown (19)
Greg Folgia (23)
Carlos Moncrief (22)
Anthony Gallas (23)
Brian Heere (23)
Trent Baker (21)
Henry Dunn (22)
Marcus Bradley (20)
Jordan Casas (23)
Kevin Rucker (21)
Joel Torres (21)

Future Prospects From the DSL Team:
Luigi Rodriguez (18): Hit .301-2-27 as a 17 year old last season. Luigi stole 31 bases and had a solid BB/K ratio (36/35). He played 42 games in centerfield along with 21 games at second base. That's a pretty good eye and some speed for a 17 year old, but we'll see how that transfers to the AZL team in the future.

Orgizational Report:
Cleveland - Sizemore / Brantley / Choo / Kearns
Columbus - Weglarz / Carrera / McBride / Crowe
Akron - Fedroff / Henry / Drennen / Webb
Kinston - Greenwell / Cid / Abreu / Folgia / Smit
Lake County - Holt / Washington / Moncrief / Baker
Extended Spring Training - Siliga / Casas / Rucker / Heere / Torres / Brown / Gallas / Bradley / Dunn
Cut? - Buck / Head / Huffman

I'm with the idea of moving Sizemore to left to save some wear on his body, and that pretty well sets the Cleveland outfield. Kearns will stick as the 4th outfielder, though I think the Indians overpaid for him. If Brantley has a terrible start to the season, would they move Sizemore back to centerfield or would they bring Crowe/Carrera up?

In Columbus, Weglarz/Carrera/Crowe probably start with McBride and Jordan Brown playing some outfield as well. Carrera may have passed Crowe in the pecking order in terms of a call to Cleveland. I don't see Jerad Head or Chad Huffman making the roster unless there are some injuries.

Akron will have Fedroff, Henry, and Drennen, but the last spot will come down to Donnie Webb or Bo Greenwell. The Indians may decide that Greenwell might need more at bats in Kinston. If they think he is ready, then he'll start and Drennen will be the 4th outfielder and Webb will start in Kinston.

Cid and Abreu will make for a young interesting outfield with a lot of strikeouts with Greenwell or Webb. Greg Folgia may hang on here as a backup outfielder and DH. Jason Smit could also make the Kinston team or he could end up back in Lake County.

The Captains will have Holt and Washington providing some excitement and the 3rd and 4th spots are wide open between Carlos Moncrief, Trent Baker, and a number of other players from Mahoning Valley and the AZL team.

The Indians outfield appears set for the next two seasons, but with Sizemore and Travis Hafner done after the 2012 season, the outfield prospects will have to start producing. Nick Weglarz fits that OF/DH mold, and he isn't far away from getting his chance. Michael Brantley also hasn't proven to me that he is an every day outfielder yet, so if he doesn't produce things could get a little shaky (counting on Crowe or Carrera). Choo's last season could be in 2013 and at that point LeVon Washington hopefully is ready to take over in 2014.

With all of the high ceiling prospects the Indians have, they will have to start coming through by 2013/14. The future outfield could be Weglarz/Washington/Abreu with Brantley/Greenwell in the mix, but it would be nice if the Indians could entice Choo to sign an extension especially if we can win some division titles in '12 and '13.

[Rocky55]

This is the best young group of OF specs in a long time.

I'd move Wegz to 1B right now. If LaPorta bombs/goes down he could move right in. It might keep him healthier.

I'd get rid of Crowe & move Webb up to Cbus. Carrera would easily be a big improvement over Crowe at the ML level as a 4th OF. He'd be the best fielder on the roster. He might hit just as bad as Crowe to start out but the defensive upgrade would be monumental.

Abreu/Cid might take longer to develop but remind me of the type of guys that the Phillies do so well with. They're keepers. I really can't see Cid moving up to the pitcher freindly Carolina League but I do think it's smart to have Abreu repeat.

I like Holt better than Greenwell but I've seen a lot of Holt, including in person. For me, Holt starts in Kinston instead of Cid.

If Brantley doesn't work out, although I think he will, you might be looking at Henry/Holt until Washington is ready. Carrera could do it but after what his bat looked like in winter ball I'm not sure he's a regular.

Agree with Washington at #1. Don't agree with the 5 tool rating, the arm will never be better than average, if that. Everything else though...

Siliga & Brown from the '10 draft have good potential. Siliga has a good bat & Brown has all of the CF tools but needs lots of development.

You have to be pretty impressed with this group if you're a Tribe fan.

Last thing, thanks for doing these eddy. Great job/good reading.

[indianinkslinger]

Nice list. The OFs are really tough in this organization. Although I do not expect him to be a factor in Cleveland, Carlos Moncreif has some tools that separate him from others who did not make the cut and, IMO, some who did. I applaud your ranking of Cid and Smit who are tough to like seriously because of their K rates. It was also nice to see you not throw Abreu under the bus. He has the same tools that made him a darling last year. As he demonstrated, he also has the same flaws and pitchers took advantage of those flaws.

[daingean]

I like LeVon but I'm concerned with his arm strength. I like Weglarz especially his power and patience (may be a replacement for Hafner and able to play 1B down the road.) What concerns me the most is where are the RF's? I know that Choo is young and established at the ML level besides Abreau who else could be a starter in RF (for a full season at the ML level)?

[GeronimoSon]

I like LeVon but I'm concerned with his arm strength. I like Weglarz especially his power and patience (may be a replacement for Hafner and able to play 1B down the road.) What concerns me the most is where are the RF's? I know that Choo is young and established at the ML level besides Abreau who else could be a starter in RF (for a full season at the ML level)?

After reviewing the status of the Indians infielders, it is clear that there are two 3B's that could be useful as outfielders provided they're instructed at the appropriate time. The candidates are specifically Kyle "Bells" Bellows & Urshela. Both might fit into this role. Just a thought...

[osueddy]

I like LeVon but I'm concerned with his arm strength. I like Weglarz especially his power and patience (may be a replacement for Hafner and able to play 1B down the road.) What concerns me the most is where are the RF's? I know that Choo is young and established at the ML level besides Abreau who else could be a starter in RF (for a full season at the ML level)?

After reviewing the status of the Indians infielders, it is clear that there are two 3B's that could be useful as outfielders provided they're instructed at the appropriate time. The candidates are specifically Kyle "Bells" Bellows & Urshela. Both might fit into this role. Just a thought...

That's not a bad idea especially if Chisenhall convincingly takes third base.

[TitoFrancona]

I like LeVon but I'm concerned with his arm strength. I like Weglarz especially his power and patience (may be a replacement for Hafner and able to play 1B down the road.) What concerns me the most is where are the RF's? I know that Choo is young and established at the ML level besides Abreau who else could be a starter in RF (for a full season at the ML level)?

After reviewing the status of the Indians infielders, it is clear that there are two 3B's that could be useful as outfielders provided they're instructed at the appropriate time. The candidates are specifically Kyle "Bells" Bellows & Urshela. Both might fit into this role. Just a thought...

That's not a bad idea especially if Chisenhall convincingly takes third base.

Bellows hasn't yet shown he can hit well enough to be a 3rd baseman let alone a corner OF'er. Isn't Urshela supposed to have plus tools defensively as a 3rd baseman?

[gotribe31]

I like LeVon but I'm concerned with his arm strength. I like Weglarz especially his power and patience (may be a replacement for Hafner and able to play 1B down the road.) What concerns me the most is where are the RF's? I know that Choo is young and established at the ML level besides Abreau who else could be a starter in RF (for a full season at the ML level)?

After reviewing the status of the Indians infielders, it is clear that there are two 3B's that could be useful as outfielders provided they're instructed at the appropriate time. The candidates are specifically Kyle "Bells" Bellows & Urshela. Both might fit into this role. Just a thought...

Urshela's plus tool is his defense at 3rd. No way he's moving to OF.

[TonyIBI]

Nice job with these org reports Eddy....though my only gripe would be McBride being way too high.

Would you be interested in cleaning these up and updating for posting on the front page?

[Upper Box Woodchuck]

Nice job with these org reports Eddy....though my only gripe would be McBride being way too high.

Would you be interested in cleaning these up and updating for posting on the front page?

Any chance of an "org reports" heading on the "Indians Resource Center" on the home page?

+1 on the props to osueddy

[osueddy]

Nice job with these org reports Eddy....though my only gripe would be McBride being way too high.

Would you be interested in cleaning these up and updating for posting on the front page?

I'm up for that.

I've just got to put the RH pitchers on here tonight or tomorrow.

[TonyIBI]

Nice job with these org reports Eddy....though my only gripe would be McBride being way too high.

Would you be interested in cleaning these up and updating for posting on the front page?

I'm up for that.

I've just got to put the RH pitchers on here tonight or tomorrow.

Great. This would be a nice overview for next week heading into my scout piece and Top 50 countdown which begins after Martin Luther King Day.

[ktriber]

From my vantage point (watching him 40-50 games last year), Abreu is ranked too high. I get it that he is young, but he showed very little improvement last year other than cutting down on his strikeouts towards the end of the year. The power never appeared. His defense was also not as good as advertised. I like the kid, but he has a lot of work to do.

Also, I loved watching Jordan Henry play. He was the heart and soul of the offense until he got called up. After that, the K-tribe struggled mightily to score any runs. If he can get stronger and fill out some, I think he has potential.

[Jamooky]

Any chance Gallas might be at Mahoning Valley when their season starts? He's a Cleveland kid, and I'd love the organization to give him a legitimate chance.

[Prosecutor]

If you're having trouble choosing between Wegs and Washington for 1-2, I think you have to downgrade Wegs based on his injury history. The guy weighs 250 and he's hurt every year. He might develop into another Adam Dunn, but he has to prove he can play a full season first. Didn't he miss half a season with shin splints that turned out to be a hairline fracture? Maybe his bones and joints just aren't able to support all that weight and power.

Let's hope he can play 130 games this year. If he misses even a month or two I think we have to push him way down the list at this time next year.

[TonyIBI]

Any chance Gallas might be at Mahoning Valley when their season starts? He's a Cleveland kid, and I'd love the organization to give him a legitimate chance.

Definitely should always root for the Cleveland guys.

Realistically speaking though, Gallas was an undrafted free agent signing that the organization has virtually no money invested in. It's a cutthroat business, and with so many players in the system, a guy like Gallas is gonna have to put up some supernatural numbers to stick around. Rarely do the UDFAs stick around or get to the higher levels. Not to say it can't happen as Herrmann and Brian Barton are two UDFAs for the Indians who have gone on play in the big leagues and become priority prospects for the Tribe. I think there is a chance Gallas could stick around and play in Mahoning Valley, or fill in at Lake County if needed. Though in three months you have another 25-30 draft picks coming in.....which makes it even more tougher to stick. He's in the fight for his life this spring as probably around 20-30 guys will be released by the end of minor league spring training, and I expect almost all of last summers UDFA signings to be released.

[Ebby Calvin]

Hey Tony, you're 100% correct about this being a cutthroat business. But I have to admit, Gallas looked like he belonged this spring. He's a big strong kid who puts the fat part of the bat on the ball. It would be a mistake for the Indians to let this kid go just because he was an undrafted free agent and they don't have money invested in him.

[TonyIBI]

Hey Tony, you're 100% correct about this being a cutthroat business. But I have to admit, Gallas looked like he belonged this spring. He's a big strong kid who puts the fat part of the bat on the ball. It would be a mistake for the Indians to let this kid go just because he was an undrafted free agent and they don't have money invested in him.

I have to say, getting my first look at Gallas, I liked what I saw. Has a nice frame/size, some strength, and really pounded the ball to all parts of the field. I think he has a legit shot to open in Lake County....or in extended and be one of the first callups to Lake County/Kinston when a need arises.

[Prosecutor]

If you're having trouble choosing between Wegs and Washington for 1-2, I think you have to downgrade Wegs based on his injury history. The guy weighs 250 and he's hurt every year. He might develop into another Adam Dunn, but he has to prove he can play a full season first. Didn't he miss half a season with shin splints that turned out to be a hairline fracture? Maybe his bones and joints just aren't able to support all that weight and power.

Let's hope he can play 130 games this year. If he misses even a month or two I think we have to push him way down the list at this time next year.

Well, there you go. He just tore something in his knee running the bases and is out for 2 months. Considering he's 23 years old and can't seem to pull on his pants without hurting himself, I'd drop him down to about #10 in the outfield rankings. I certainly wouldn't list him above Bo Greenwell and Jordan Henry. Like Woody Allen said, 90% of success is just showing up.

If I were him I'd try to lose about 20 pounds. Don't know if that will help him avoid injuries, but what he's doing sure ain't working.

[Hermie13]

Well, there you go. He just tore something in his knee running the bases and is out for 2 months. Considering he's 23 years old and can't seem to pull on his pants without hurting himself, I'd drop him down to about #10 in the outfield rankings. I certainly wouldn't list him above Bo Greenwell and Jordan Henry. Like Woody Allen said, 90% of success is just showing up.

I don't know about #10. Even being hurt again, the only guy you could really rank higher than him is Washington....and he too doesn't have the best bill of health. Wegz still set and potential just dwarf Greenwell and Henry's. But to each their own.

This new injury obviously is disheartening though. No doubt about that.

[Prosecutor]

Herm, I suppose I'm drawing a distinction between traumatic injuries that could happen to anyone, such as Santana's knee giving out when a player basically threw himself right into it, and injuries that just happen when something in the body gives out while running the bases or swinging a bat or throwing a pitch. Weglarz's injuries, for the most part, fall into the latter category. When you have these kind of reoccuring injuries to a player in his early 20's, you really wonder if he'll ever be able to stay healthy long enough to develop into a big league player.

If you can't stay off the DL for more than a couple of months at a time, you have no upside.

[davidkey]

Weglarz is no longer even a top 20 prospect, IMO. He's spent all of about half a year at AAA, and did OK but didn't exactly light the world on fire. For all his touted power potential, in his one full year of play (3 years ago?) he hit 21 hrs. He draws more walks than he gets hits. When you've got that kind of power potential, swing the freakin' bat, you just might hit a homerun. We've got plenty of guys who can hit singles, draw walks and not clog the bases....we don't need Weglarz doing that in between his stints on the DL.

IMO, he will never live up to the hype of all those who've pegged him as a top 5, even top 10 prospect (within the system). If he stays healthy, he's still only got the upside of a Jack Cust.

[Hermie13]

Herm, I suppose I'm drawing a distinction between traumatic injuries that could happen to anyone, such as Santana's knee giving out when a player basically threw himself right into it, and injuries that just happen when something in the body gives out while running the bases or swinging a bat or throwing a pitch. Weglarz's injuries, for the most part, fall into the latter category. When you have these kind of reoccuring injuries to a player in his early 20's, you really wonder if he'll ever be able to stay healthy long enough to develop into a big league player.

If you can't stay off the DL for more than a couple of months at a time, you have no upside.

Well I guess we can agree to disagree on the term "upside"....but still see Wegz's upside as that of a Dunn-esque player. Despite his injuries he still has the upside of a 30+ HR guy that can walk 100 times a year.

Again, agree he must get healthy.....but he does still have youth on his side. I know it feels like he's been around forever, but the kid is only 23....and is actually 8 months younger than Kipnis. Personally still think he's worth leaving at the top of your OF rankings based off potential when healthy. Though do understand the frustration with the injuries, and the concerns people have.