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PTBNL Thread

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PTBNL Thread

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:30 pm

If Paul Hoynes is to be believed, the Brewers have made the playoffs today which means the Indians get to pick the PTBNL.

Hoynes has also reported that the list is believed to be 4 players long.

Personally I don't buy Hoynes theories on both fronts.... I still think the list has always been Green or Brantley and the Indians have always had the pick.

Personally I think they'll take Brantley and, if Green and Brantleys agent is to believed (from his blog), it won't be announced until after the World Series.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby MadThinker88 » Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:42 pm

I don't believe either Brantley, Green or Lucroy needs to be protected on the 40 man this off-season. IF somehow Salome was selected as the PTBNL, he would need to be added to the 40 man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.

Time will tell on who we actually get.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby dnosco » Sun Sep 28, 2008 9:10 pm

Remembering that I didn't like the trade at the time and wanted a minimum of LaPorta and Gamel I hope the PTBNL is the best player available and not just the player that the FO thinks we need the most.

My position at the time was if it was LaPorta, Green, Bryson and Jackson we didn't get enough because it is not about quantity it is about quality. To think that Shapiro had to negotiate even to get this haul (as opposed to a potentially lesser prospect than Green if you believe Hoynes) is almost inconceivable to me. To me it was start with LaPorta and Gamel and then work up from there, if possible.

Shapiro made this deal in haste and did not get enough back. If his deal HAD come down the Brewers making the choice of potentially a different group of players then this would have made the deal worse.

But that is all speculation now. The Brewers made the playoffs so, even if Hoynes was right, we still get our choice from the list of players.

I hope there is an announcement tomorrow. This hype for a Type high B prospect is almost comical. Unless it is Gamel or someone of that ilk or a Jeffress who has the skills but not the personal control to focus on baseball, it will all certainly not be worth the wait.

Better than no PTBNL for sure, but none of these guys, except for Lucroy, Gamel and Jeffress in their farm system really are exciting at this point.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby jellis » Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:58 pm

dnosco wrote:Remembering that I didn't like the trade at the time and wanted a minimum of LaPorta and Gamel I hope the PTBNL is the best player available and not just the player that the FO thinks we need the most.

My position at the time was if it was LaPorta, Green, Bryson and Jackson we didn't get enough because it is not about quantity it is about quality. To think that Shapiro had to negotiate even to get this haul (as opposed to a potentially lesser prospect than Green if you believe Hoynes) is almost inconceivable to me. To me it was start with LaPorta and Gamel and then work up from there, if possible.

Shapiro made this deal in haste and did not get enough back. If his deal HAD come down the Brewers making the choice of potentially a different group of players then this would have made the deal worse.

But that is all speculation now. The Brewers made the playoffs so, even if Hoynes was right, we still get our choice from the list of players.

I hope there is an announcement tomorrow. This hype for a Type high B prospect is almost comical. Unless it is Gamel or someone of that ilk or a Jeffress who has the skills but not the personal control to focus on baseball, it will all certainly not be worth the wait.

Better than no PTBNL for sure, but none of these guys, except for Lucroy, Gamel and Jeffress in their farm system really are exciting at this point.


your thinking here is out dated, this isnt baseball 5 years ago. Current baseball dogma has the spec having incredible value. No one gets 2 super specs for a one year rental. yes baltimore got a huge haul, but it was for a 2 year guy same deal with haren. We got a player considered by many a top 10 spec in all of baseball who is near ready. We got 3 players who had a chance to make the Brewers top ten that is a good haul for anyone. Yes Mil now gets the draft picks, and they get guys who in 2 to 3 years might help them, we got 2 guys who might help us in 1 or 2 years and one who should help next year. I am not sure what else was out there Phi minors werent great and LA didnt want to take on salary. Shapiro jumped on a deal to fill a need RH power, and he got the best spec he could get
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:58 pm

As I have said a few times, it has been Fort Knox with the Brewers/Indians in regard to the parameters on the PTBNL. Mostly people are just speculating and thinking way too much. Shapiro on the day of the trade said it was a list of two players and they had until the end of the season to make the choice. On day one the list was speculated that it was Green or Brantley.

And according to Gammons tonight, it seems this was the case as the Indians reportedly have chosen Brantley. I like Brantley a lot.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:03 pm

jellis wrote:
dnosco wrote:Remembering that I didn't like the trade at the time and wanted a minimum of LaPorta and Gamel I hope the PTBNL is the best player available and not just the player that the FO thinks we need the most.

My position at the time was if it was LaPorta, Green, Bryson and Jackson we didn't get enough because it is not about quantity it is about quality. To think that Shapiro had to negotiate even to get this haul (as opposed to a potentially lesser prospect than Green if you believe Hoynes) is almost inconceivable to me. To me it was start with LaPorta and Gamel and then work up from there, if possible.

Shapiro made this deal in haste and did not get enough back. If his deal HAD come down the Brewers making the choice of potentially a different group of players then this would have made the deal worse.

But that is all speculation now. The Brewers made the playoffs so, even if Hoynes was right, we still get our choice from the list of players.

I hope there is an announcement tomorrow. This hype for a Type high B prospect is almost comical. Unless it is Gamel or someone of that ilk or a Jeffress who has the skills but not the personal control to focus on baseball, it will all certainly not be worth the wait.

Better than no PTBNL for sure, but none of these guys, except for Lucroy, Gamel and Jeffress in their farm system really are exciting at this point.


your thinking here is out dated, this isnt baseball 5 years ago. Current baseball dogma has the spec having incredible value. No one gets 2 super specs for a one year rental. yes baltimore got a huge haul, but it was for a 2 year guy same deal with haren. We got a player considered by many a top 10 spec in all of baseball who is near ready. We got 3 players who had a chance to make the Brewers top ten that is a good haul for anyone. Yes Mil now gets the draft picks, and they get guys who in 2 to 3 years might help them, we got 2 guys who might help us in 1 or 2 years and one who should help next year. I am not sure what else was out there Phi minors werent great and LA didnt want to take on salary. Shapiro jumped on a deal to fill a need RH power, and he got the best spec he could get


Yeah, I think even in hindsight this was a fair deal. Indians got a legit power hitter who will be a top 10 prospect at the start of next season who is about ready for the bigs. They also got two upside highly valued prospects a few years away, although if the Brantley talk from Gammons is true he is not far away. And jackson looks like he will be a quality depth starting option next year. For a 3 month rental, it is tough to ask for more.

It can be argued that maybe we shoulda got better lower level guys than Bryson/Brantley.....but there is no way we get two top guys for CC. It just wasn't happening.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby dnosco » Mon Sep 29, 2008 12:44 am

"your thinking here is out dated, this isnt baseball 5 years ago. Current baseball dogma has the spec having incredible value. No one gets 2 super specs for a one year rental. yes baltimore got a huge haul, but it was for a 2 year guy same deal with haren. We got a player considered by many a top 10 spec in all of baseball who is near ready. We got 3 players who had a chance to make the Brewers top ten that is a good haul for anyone. Yes Mil now gets the draft picks, and they get guys who in 2 to 3 years might help them, we got 2 guys who might help us in 1 or 2 years and one who should help next year. I am not sure what else was out there Phi minors werent great and LA didnt want to take on salary. Shapiro jumped on a deal to fill a need RH power, and he got the best spec he could get"

I think it is somewhat of a reach to say that LaPorta was a player "considered by many a top 10 spec in all of baseball". He was only the 4th best player in the Southern League this year and didn't do vey well after coming over to the Indians.

Also, my definition of super specs may be different than yours. For example, look at what Blake got us. Meloan was a Dodgers' top 10 prospect last year and some here have Santana as the best prospect in the Indians' organization. I would say that is a much better haul, talent-for-talent, than the Sabathia trade as this is not additive. Getting a 9, maybe a 7, a 6 and a 3 on a 1-10 prospect rating scale is not nearly getting two 9s. In fact, to get that second "9" I would have thrown in a "7" from my end.

We will just have to agree to disagree but what we got on paper, in Shapiro's words significantly after the trade, were two depth guys (Bryson and Jackson), LaPorta and a guy with major league potential.

If that guy is Brantley you are getting a rag-arm left field type with no power who is a slap hitter without great OB skills (although I like the .319 BA he did only have 50 BB in over 400 AB, which are pedestrian numbers). He could be more as he did this at 21 years old (albeit in his second year in the Southern League).

He is a banjo hitter with decent but not great speed. Hey, at least Willy Taveras has an arm! Brantley may turn out to be more but he may also turn out to be Jason Tyner. I mean, the guy has no great tools and only two above average tools (speed and hitting for average) as I have read that his arm is poor, he is a relatively poor outfielder who has, as a result, seen some time at 1B and he has no power. How much of a prospect can a guy like that be especially when we got LaPorta who is a LF-only guy in the trade and Sizemore has a rag-arm too meaning that we now have 2 LF types plus no where to move Sizemore?

I'll go on record as saying that Gamel and Green will turn out much better down the road due to their hitting ability and versatility than LaPorta and Brantley, not only to the Indians but in baseball, in general.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby petes999 » Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:41 am

Honestly, if it is Brantley, I am a little disappointed and a little confused. I saw Brantley and Green as relatively even prospects. They always seemed to be neck and neck to everyone. Thus, it really surprises me that all this wait and suspense (on who gets to pick) was just to pick between the two. From a Brewers perspective, it seems that they would have wanted us to take Brantley instead of Green because they have Cain, Gillespie, Gindl, etc. (loaded with prospects even with the loss of LaPorta and Brantley) with an outfield that is relatively set with Hart and Braun (maybe could use Brantley in center versus Cameron) while Green only had Gamel ahead of him where some thought Gamel would have to be moved to the outfield or 1st.

I just thought with the ability to pick that there would be another prospect added to Green/Brantley debate like a Lucroy, Jeffress or the only-in-your dreams player Escobar. Yet, Cleveland must have seen something for Brantley to have been the pick for the last few weeks (as Gammons said it would be him weeks ago and the agent for Brantley, Green and Jeffress said he knew who it would be a few weeks ago to). It makes some sense as we lack some outfield depth (other than Weglarz, LaPorta and Crowe) with many questions at the majors until recently. Yet, our need was more at the lower level (A ball) where Gindl would have made more sense (possibly more upside) factoring in Fran/Choo/LaPorta and Crowe would battle for 2 spots where Brantley doesn't add that much. And, Green had been added to AFL as a replacement for an injured Gamel where Brantley was left off for personal reasons (after supposedly being placed on the list initially).

My guess a month ago was if it was Green or Brantley, that you could expect a trade (package Shoppach, PTBNL and someone else) for a closer. Yet, I had hoped for someone a little higher because as Dennis said, LaPorta, Green/Brantley, Bryson and Jackson would have been better if we went for 2 studs versus LaPorta + others. And, please don't say Jackson is an added depth starter (good trade value) because by adding him to the 40 we will lose someone (Martin, Head, Hermann, etc.) to Rule 5. How much better is Jackson to these players (only an incremental improvement)?
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:41 am

A source close to the situation says "No nothing, gammons just spouting off. Nothing has happened".

We'll see.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby toledobuck » Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:46 pm

I think Brantley's ceiling is higher than Green's. Brantley is younger at a higher level and producing better (except for power). He still has room to fill out so an upside of J. Damon could be made with a downside comparison being that of J. Tyner type AAAA player. I also like his speed and OBP to transition to being a decent leadoff hitter and an big upgrade over Crowe. Green to me just does not appear to be a decent enough fielder or hitter to make it in the majors. I compare him to a little better version of what J. Rodriguez gave us last year in A+ and he sure came down to earth this year in AA.

If A. Escobar becomes the player, that would just be a phenominal haul. Gamel sure put up some good offensive numbers this year but his last quarter of the season he was in a huge slump. He is also a butcher with the glove at 3B so he would not have been able to stick there. He would have been a LF, 1B, DH type and we have a ton of those already. If Gamel continues to grow as a hitter, he will put his team in a position to find a spot for him on the field. He has that offensive potential.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:04 pm

Good Lord, if we somehow were to get Escobar in the deal I would be estatic. Fills a huge need and is a huge talent. Love what I have hear about him. In order of preference: Escobar-Lucroy-Brantley-Gamel-Green.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby npc29 » Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:52 pm

I, like many, heard Shapiro say it was two players that would be selected at the end of the year, so I don't see any reason to take any stock into what Hoynes has said. I mean who are you going to believe? Shapiro or Hoynes? I don't know if the situation could change, I doubt the Indians and Brewers went back and made an adjustment to the deal, which is the only conceivable way I would see Hoynes' report being right.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:54 pm

I know a lot of us like Lucroy, but for what it's worth BA just rated Green ahead of Lucroy on the FSL League top 20.

Green was #16, Lucroy #19.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby artgold » Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:50 pm

Perhaps, but I'm still hoping for Lucroy. If not Lucroy, I would rather have Brantley over Green.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:11 am

PTBNL COuld Be Named Today

Countdown:

The Indians could complete the CC Sabathia trade today by selecting outfielder Michael Brantley or third baseman Taylor Green from Milwaukee. The Indians get to make the choice because the Brewers, with a huge assist from Sabathia, made the playoffs Sunday as the NL's wild card team.

If the Brewers didn't make the postseason, they could have chosen the fourth player to complete the deal.

It's believed the Indians were leaning toward Brantley, 21, a left-handed hitting outfielder with speed. Brantley hit .319 (134-for-420) with 17 doubles, two triples, four homers and 40 RBI at Class AA Huntsville, Ala. He stole 28 bases, scored 80 runs, drew 50 walks and struck out 27 times.

Brantley had an OPS of .793.

Green, 22, hits left-handed and throws right-handed. He batted .289 (121-for-418) at Class A Brevard County with 46 runs, 19 doubles, 15 homers and 73 RBI. He struck out 59 times, drew 61 walks and had an OPS of .825.

They were both injured this season and the Indians have had concerns about their health.

The Indians have already received Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson for Sabathia.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Sep 30, 2008 1:00 pm

toledobuck wrote:I think Brantley's ceiling is higher than Green's. Brantley is younger at a higher level and producing better (except for power).


I think he'll get his fair share of extra base hits once he starts maturing. One guy labeled him aother potential Lofton, a guy I have come to really trust as far as an opinion scouting report goes. The offensive game is definitely there wth the speed and bat (obviously he is nowhere near the defensive potential Lofton was):

Brantley (Age 18-21):

Minor League Career: 383 games, 1392 AB, 53 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 199 BB, 142 K, 104 SB, .311/.399/.372/.771

Lofton (Age 21-24):
Minor League Career: 363 games, 1423 AB, 46 2B, 24 3B, 6 HR, 159 BB, 266 K, 168 SB, .300/.370/.379/.749

Brantley is my guy, and is to me the best player on the proposed list.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby petes999 » Tue Sep 30, 2008 2:33 pm

Just a few things to think about in this process:

I was kind of surprised that both Green and Brantley were not ranked higher in their respective leagues by BA - more of hoping one would standout as the player we want (top-10 type player) - yet neither one really had a big second half. Thus, they were both barely on the top-20 lists (Green 16, Brantley 18). It's kind of like hearing we are getting someone like Tomlin (ranked 18) - like the guy, yet nothing to say wow about.

Yet, when you look at Brantley's league, most everyone (if not everyone) ahead of Brantley on the list will probably be a top 100 player on BA list next spring (at least according to Rotoworld mid-season ranking all at or above 80 except Brantley). And, the player right ahead of Brantley on the Southern league list is Salome. Due to the depth in the Southern league, he is probably rated a higher prospect than Hodges in the Eastern league.

Thus, are we dissing Brantley a bit due to not having more power for a corner outfield position? As Tony mentioned, he could be another Loften (yet Loften was mostly a center fielder). Not bad for someone to come off the bench when you need a hit. Yet, the issue is, do we want a corner outfielder with no power, yet? I could live with it since Grady hits for the power in center and either LaPorta or Weglarz will have the other corner. And, LaPorta can move to 1st or DH depending on what happens to Hafner and Mills.

Also ... to add to the suspense ... everyone kept on saying that we would wait to choose a player until the end of the season due to making sure no one got injured and doing the final evaluation. Now, we may have waited to see who picked (Cle or Mil). Yet, can we be waiting a little bit longer (if the deadline is the end of the season - world series) to do further evaluation as both players are down in Arizona Fall League which starts next week?????
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby GhostofTedCox » Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:11 pm

I'm a little surprised that the deal hasn't been completed by now. There's no reason not to make it a done deal.
There is really only one reason I can think of (hope for). Maybe that player is on the Brewers 40 man roster. As long as the Brewers remain in the playofs, they could add a player to the active roster from the 40 man, in case of injury. The one player on the 40 man that has been discussed is Alcides Escobar. Maybe the trade had an escalator clause where we could include him based on how effective CC was in the regular season. Escobar could be that inielder we're looking for.
Oh, well. Just an idea. :idea:
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:18 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:I'm a little surprised that the deal hasn't been completed by now. There's no reason not to make it a done deal.
There is really only one reason I can think of (hope for). Maybe that player is on the Brewers 40 man roster. As long as the Brewers remain in the playofs, they could add a player to the active roster from the 40 man, in case of injury. The one player on the 40 man that has been discussed is Alcides Escobar. Maybe the trade had an escalator clause where we could include him based on how effective CC was in the regular season. Escobar could be that inielder we're looking for.
Oh, well. Just an idea. :idea:


This is a good point and something worth considering. The fact that the deal has yet to be announced to me indicates that the player the Indians want could very well be on the Brewers 40-man roster.

In fact, this makes a ton of sense. Why else would they wait to make the pick? There must be some parameter that the PTBNL is not announced until after the season (in other words, the end of the Brewers season).

If it is Escobar, I piss my pants with joy.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby Timmyb » Tue Sep 30, 2008 6:20 pm

Wow, I wish you guys would have never put that thought into my head. I currently have goose bumps at the thought of the indians landing Escobar in the trade. If it is true, I will never say a negitive thing about Shapiro again
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Sep 30, 2008 6:47 pm

Consigliere wrote:
GhostofTedCox wrote:I'm a little surprised that the deal hasn't been completed by now. There's no reason not to make it a done deal.
There is really only one reason I can think of (hope for). Maybe that player is on the Brewers 40 man roster. As long as the Brewers remain in the playofs, they could add a player to the active roster from the 40 man, in case of injury. The one player on the 40 man that has been discussed is Alcides Escobar. Maybe the trade had an escalator clause where we could include him based on how effective CC was in the regular season. Escobar could be that inielder we're looking for.
Oh, well. Just an idea. :idea:


This is a good point and something worth considering. The fact that the deal has yet to be announced to me indicates that the player the Indians want could very well be on the Brewers 40-man roster.

In fact, this makes a ton of sense. Why else would they wait to make the pick? There must be some parameter that the PTBNL is not announced until after the season (in other words, the end of the Brewers season).

I am not sure about this rule but I do not believe that a player on the 40 man can be the PTBNL. Of course, the door could be opened for a renegotiation/escalator based on the Brewer's playoff run as Hoynes has suggested that two more players are involved but, frankly, I think Hoynes' expertise is primarily in the press box buffet. I have really reconciled myself to Brantley since he was removed from the Brewers AFL roster but Escobar would be very nice. In any event, this was a real good trade for the Tribe. I am not really concerned that LaPorta was ranked 4th in the Southern since the 3 players ahead of him (Kershaw,Maybin, Price) are among the highest ranked prospects in the minors. All 3 reached the majors this year and none had to put up with LaPorta's schedule in the second half. This trade only pales by comparison to the incredible something for nothing trade for Reyes. We got more out of Reyes since the trade than the Indians ever would have gotten out of Perdomo. Reyes' performance actually made me question the hype about Duncan. I rank this ahead of the Blake trade but it is likely that will be resolved in favor of the Indians, as well. Shapiro earned his paycheck in July, IMO.

If it is Escobar, I piss my pants with joy.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby petes999 » Tue Sep 30, 2008 7:09 pm

The agent for Brantley has a blog and has written that Brantley was initially removed from the AFL roster for personal reasons (nothing serious) and not because of the trade. This was weeks ago (early Sept.) and recently said that Brantley has been added back to the roster (and his equipment has been shipped to Arizona). He followed up today that if it was Brantley (or someone else) than the roster would be shifted and another one of his clients, like Cain, could replace Brantley, if he was the one.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Sep 30, 2008 7:40 pm

petes999 wrote:The agent for Brantley has a blog and has written that Brantley was initially removed from the AFL roster for personal reasons (nothing serious) and not because of the trade. This was weeks ago (early Sept.) and recently said that Brantley has been added back to the roster (and his equipment has been shipped to Arizona). He followed up today that if it was Brantley (or someone else) than the roster would be shifted and another one of his clients, like Cain, could replace Brantley, if he was the one.


Did not know that? Many thanks for the update on Brantley! Makes the scenario proposed by Ghost really cool speculation. 8-)
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby osueddy » Tue Sep 30, 2008 10:15 pm

Shapiro said all along that this player was going to be the 2nd best prospect of the deal. That remains to be seen, but I've been pleasantly surprised with Zach Jackson, and though he is a little further away, Bryson may contribute as well.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:34 pm

This has dragged on and is sort of ridiculuous if it truly is down to just Green and Brantley and has been between those two for three freaking months. How many times would they need to scout these two? How long does it take to make a decision between two players? If it really was between these two, why does this deal not get finished when the minor league season ends four weeks ago?

This is why I am starting to believe the rumors that there may be other players involved. Or that there are two players involved, but the two players that have been rumored are incorrect or only partly correct.

What if the two players on the PTBNL list are Escobar and Green? Or Escobar and Brantley? And what if Hoynes actually was right where if the Brewers lose out in the playoffs they get to pick the guy which is Brantley or Green, and if the Brewers go to the playoffs the Indians get to pick and it is Escobar? And what if the hold up to the Indians making that announcement official is that Escobar is on the 40-man and could be used in the playoffs?

This is getting interesting......and confusing.

Hopefully we find out soon.....maybe even by the time Milwaukee finalizes their playoff roster?
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby murt » Wed Oct 01, 2008 5:46 am

Possible that entitlement depends on not just if Brewers make playoffs, but also how far they go in the playoffs with CC

One never knows

Regardless, despite what Shapiro says, this deal is 95% about Laporta, and 5% about the ptbnl, isn't it? The two ptbnl seem like typical reaches. (both have large holes, despite a couple of likable features)
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby MadThinker88 » Wed Oct 01, 2008 10:33 am

In all honesty, I would prefer a player I didn't have to put on the 40 man right away.
While I understand the desire for a more established/ known talent like Escobar, the 40 man process this off-season is going to be such a bear to deal with that I question the wisdom of adding another quality player into that pre-roster deadline mix.

Adding more quality that has to protected now will make it necessary to figure what additional talent we will lose as a result in the draft.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby petes999 » Wed Oct 01, 2008 11:10 am

That's plan mad madthinker .... don't get Escobar because he would have to be added to the 40????

Heck ... if it is Escobar, I would take it in a heart beat and then let Barfield or Marte go via a trade or even just plain just cut. I would consider leaving Mujica, Jackson, Head or even J.D. Martin off the 40. I would sacrifice the 2009 season for what we could have in 2010 and 11.

I am not saying that Escobar is going to be our starting shortstop, yet he is going to be a top 30 talent on the BA list in the winter. Imagine 5 people in the top 30 prospects (I knkow it means nothing - yet 2 or 3 should pan out in LaPorta, Santana, Welglarz, Mills and an Escobar). Are you serious that you would not take someone like that?

The argument is against taking him is that we have Cabrera. Yet, I would love to see Escobar/Cabrera at 2nd/SS next summer (after a few months at AAA for Escobar). Imagine how well Westbrook would do (and Laffey/Carmona) by having such a strong center of the diamond.

Something like this would eliminate the need to resign Blake or trade for a 2nd baseman. You give either Marte, Barfield (who ever is not cut) or Hodges the first shot in the Spring and then when Escobar is ready, move him to SS and Parelta to 3B. Then the only hole is 1b which you can give to Martinez (if Shoppach is not traded) as you wait for Mills/LaPorta.

I think our problem is that we do not have enough star players in the minors at the higher levels so I would risk losing a Hermann, Head, ... for someone who can be a star if his stick maintains his improvement this year. Now would I take someone else (non-100 top prospect) who needs to be protected over Brantley, maybe not. Yet, not someone like an Escobar who can be very special where the bat doesn't matter as much (SS) than OF.

Now will we get him, probably not. Yet, the longer this drags out, the more likely it is. Note, yesterday some of the other trades like Maddux got completed (another trade with better prospects due to LA getting into the playoffs) so what is the hold up unless (1) they are waiting for the AFL to continue to scout - or just get them more experience as our AFL roster is full, (2) Escobar is on the 40 and can't be moved until after World Series and Shapiro wouldn't be as mean as to yank him out as he just was on the bench during the playoff run (where he went 2 for 4 - thus they trusted him already in pressure situation) or (3) there is a 2nd contingency if they get to the WS.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby timdav » Wed Oct 01, 2008 11:40 am

Whatever happens with this PTBNL....it's a truly hectic time for the Tribe front office.

This off-season in particular, Mark Shapiro & company has to have multiple scenerios depending on whom the Indians can work a trade for: 3B, corner OF (still not impossible even w/Choo's success and La Porta waiting).

Marte will very, very likely be left to leave as a 6 year free agent (he's out of options and must be put on the 40 man roster to be protected from the November Rule 5 minor league draft).

Here's a wild but not totally unreasonable idea: if Brantley is really an outstanding CF, would you groom him for Cleveland's CF job and move Grady to LF because of his newly-found HR power? Sizemore really doesn't have the arm for RF, but would make a perfect LF.

Still, the obvious is, well: obvious. Without a closer and an improved bullpen....2009 won't be much different than 2008.

Let's send the good vibes down to Mark Shaprio & staff!
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby petes999 » Wed Oct 01, 2008 12:12 pm

First, if either Barfield or Marte is left off the 40-man, than they will be picked up under the normal waiver wires where someone will put them on the 40-man. Heck if Snyder was picked up, then Barfield and Marte would not last.

Second, I wouldn't put Brantley is center. Grady loves it and is probably a better CF than Brantley (he supposedly is improving on his route running and arm is not the best either). Thus, they both can play, get Grady has earned the right to be there for us. Just as Loften played left, whoever gets in the outfield for us (LaPorta, Brantley or Crowe) would be flanking Grady.

Third, I am not sold anymore that we need bullpen help. If we can find a closer without being blackmailed great. However, we have plenty of people coming up that can help up Stevens, Meloan, Sipp, Rundles, etc. that can help out. I just wished they got more innings late in the year (Rundles go the most and he is my least favorite in the group).

And the outfield, I doubt we will do anything there because we have options coming (Brantley if PTBNL, Crowe, LaPorta and Brown).

My guess is that we make 1 FA signing and 1 trade (3-1 type trade) to get closer or 2b/3b.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby MadThinker88 » Wed Oct 01, 2008 1:08 pm

petes999 wrote:That's plan mad madthinker .... don't get Escobar because he would have to be added to the 40???? .......


Pete,
I think you missed the drift of the post. I want quality but if given a choice, I take for down the road. Perhaps I would have better explained myself by saying that between equal quality, I take the player that doesn't need to be protected this offseason.

We sat down and went through the roster together and if either of us was given the scissors to cut the roster down, it would get bloody in a hurry. :lol: I think both of us want the Tribe to have solid competitive teams for multiple years to come (a la the Braves run) and the debate between us (if there really is one) is how is the best way to achieve that.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby jellis » Wed Oct 01, 2008 1:47 pm

I think we are getting over hyped here, more than likely its not going to be for escobar. He was who we wanted with laporta from the start and were flatly said no. I am growing more and more on brantley. He isnt a good CF but in LF he would be excellent, you defiantly don't move Grady for him. I was reading today he has the second lowest strike out rate in the minors, which would be a boon with this very strike out prone offense, plus brantley is born to hit lead off, which means Grady finally moves down to the 3 or 4. Got to love a 2:1 walk to strike out rate and a guy who hits to all fields.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Oct 01, 2008 1:50 pm

If I recall correctly, the hangup in the CC trade was that the Indians wanted LaPorta AND Escobar but the Brewers were against it. I'd have to look back on one of the threads back in late June or early July when all the rumors were flying.

But if what I am recalling is true......then what if the Indians and Brewers found some common ground where if they missed the playoffs the Brewers get to pick the PTBNL and that player is Taylor Green, but if the Brewers make the playoffs then the Indians get to pick the player and that guy is Escobar?

Just more food for thought and rampant speculation. I am trying to make sense of Hoynes' comment about the PTBNL stipulation and also the fact the PTBNL has still not been announced.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby petes999 » Wed Oct 01, 2008 2:20 pm

Sorry, Madthinker ... I just missed read your post ... I just had dreams of Escobar on my mind. I know the 40 man is going to be hard to cut down to ... Yet, I would take a Gamel, Escobar and Salome (as they are on the 40 now) over a Head, Martin, Jackson, Mujica any day (but not a Gillespie or Cain if they need to be protected). Yet, the main names, Lucroy, Green and Brantley do not need protection this year.

We can delay the process by taking a Lucroy, Green or Brantley, yet because we are a young team, we are not going to have an easy Rule 5 for a few years (especially with Huff, LaPorta, Hodges among others like PTBNL and De La Cruz being on the 40 sometime next year where we only lose a Delluci, maybe Bentancourt and Koby ... and cut some deadweight of Barfield and Marte).

Tony .... There was one post early

"This is new and interesting. According to CBS, the Brewers have told Cleveland that they can have two of thier top five prospects, as long as they arent a combo of Laporta and Escobar."

I don't know what will happen, yet if you look at their top 5 at the time it was

1. LaPort
2. Gamel
3. Escobar
4. Jeffress
5. Salome

6-8 -- Brantley, Green, Lucroy

then people like Cain, Gillespie

I never saw Green and Brantley as top 5 talent. So, there may be something here, who knows. I would take either Jeffress or Escobar and be happy.

There was one post I recall early on that listed like 4 options (no playoff, playoffs, .... WS) for player to be named later. I recall Jeffress being one of the options, yet I could never find it again. I bring this up because in Brantleys/Green's agent's blog, he mentioned there were two deadlines for the PTBNL the day after the trade (kind of blew his mind). Yet, it is starting to make sense if there were contingencies.

If it hasn't been announced today, I have a feeling we will wait until after the WS to hear (or when Brewers are eliminated if there was an ultimate contingency).
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby GhostofTedCox » Wed Oct 01, 2008 6:07 pm

In Hoyne's chat today he was curious too as to why the deal hasn't been completed. He said Brantley and Green are both in Arizona getting ready to play for the Brewers in the AFL. He said maybe the Indians were concerned about their health.
But the injuries are not career threatening. Heck, they're not even as serious as Adam Miller's or Anthony Reyes. The Indians know what both of these players can do, and they know what position would be a better fit. If I was making the decision, I would want my player to get adjusted to the Indians organization ASAP. But nothing happens. Why?

With each passing day, I think Escobar is part of the deal. He's on the 40-man roster (Brantley and Green are not). As long as he remains on the 40-man, the Brewers could activate him for the playoffs. He would also add depth to the organization at a critical position, (Green would too, but he's still in A ball).

Let's really get ahead of things. Here's a lineup for 9/1/09

G. Sizemore - CF
A. Cabrera - 2B
V. Martinez - 1B
J. Peralta - 3B
S. Choo - RF
M. Laporta - LF
K. Shoppach - C
T. Hafner - DH
A. Escobar - SS
8-)
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby dnosco » Wed Oct 01, 2008 6:49 pm

Interesting. The choose-from-a-list-of-4 rumor is back in play according to one source.

The longer we wait, the more rumors there are.

I will love to hear the FO spin on this if Shapiro said from a group of 2 and suddenly it was from a group of 4. I would also love to hear if the Brewers making the playoffs DID have an impact.

If it was a positive impact, i.e., the Brewers winning gave us a choice of players better than or as good as Green and Brantley, it would obviously be a positive for the restructuring of the deal.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby jellis » Wed Oct 01, 2008 7:14 pm

Consigliere wrote:If I recall correctly, the hangup in the CC trade was that the Indians wanted LaPorta AND Escobar but the Brewers were against it. I'd have to look back on one of the threads back in late June or early July when all the rumors were flying.

But if what I am recalling is true......then what if the Indians and Brewers found some common ground where if they missed the playoffs the Brewers get to pick the PTBNL and that player is Taylor Green, but if the Brewers make the playoffs then the Indians get to pick the player and that guy is Escobar?

Just more food for thought and rampant speculation. I am trying to make sense of Hoynes' comment about the PTBNL stipulation and also the fact the PTBNL has still not been announced.



Yeah that's what I remember too that the brewers were dead set against trading both and I am still hesitant tot think they will, as I they have the NL version of perralta, Hardy, and I think they want to move to 3B. At this point though I think unless its escobar there is going to be a huge let down when this deal gets done
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby petes999 » Thu Oct 02, 2008 4:28 am

It will be a few more days .... yet it is probably not Escobar because it would make it a slam dunk ... It maybe Jeffress as we may have had the medical reports on Green and Brantley already (and their medical issues should be minor) - yet if Jeffress was added due to the playoffs, then we would need to check out the drug issue

This from Wednesday MJS.

Deal deadline closer: The deadline for completing the CC Sabathia trade is next Monday. Because the Brewers made the playoffs, Cleveland gets to choose the "player to be named." Had the Brewers fallen short, they would have named the player.

"It might be the same guy, you never know," said general manager Doug Melvin. "They might be split on the player or else they would have decided already. They're looking at medical records now."

Melvin wouldn't reveal the minor leaguers on the list provided but the names that come up most often are outfielder Michael Brantley, third baseman Taylor Green and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Whomever the Brewers lose, Melvin said he can live with it because of Sabathia's impact in making the playoffs.

"We have no regrets," said Melvin. "CC is the guy who got us here."
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby petes999 » Thu Oct 02, 2008 5:48 am

Reasons it may be Jeffress ....

I now that supposedly all the players on the list may be position players as Brewers are thin in Pitching thus would not want to give up their best pitching prospect yet ...

1) If the list was Green and Brantley, I doubt this was the hang up in whether Brewers got to the playoffs or not

2) Jeffress is an upgrade with either star or bust type impact (walks are high and drug use .. yet with 100 MPH fastball, he could make him special - .226 bating average against at High-A at age 20 and only one bad game at AA out of 4 games)

3) Supposedly the agent for Brantley and Green has told the player who it would be weeks ago ... everyone focused on them ... yet Jeffress had also just signed with him

This from their agent last night

Monday is decision day. This trade is almost over. It's my understanding that the medicals are being reviewed and Cle is understandably having trouble choosing the PTBNL. I still believe it's the same guy I informed several weeks ago, so we'll see if I'm right by monday.

On a separate and unrelated note....

Taylor Green is to replace Mat Gamel in the AFL but wont report until Monday. Everyone else reported today (Aguilar,Jeffress,Brantley etc......)


... It could be Green as he hasn't reported to AFL, yet as Tony said we should have decided on Green or Brantley long time ago and us having trouble points me to Jeffress being suspended for a long period of time if he uses again (and Wedgie/Shapiro wanting good character guys).
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:13 am

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=801157

Teams are allowed to have six players in uniform on the bench who are inactive and Sveum said he made his choices according to seniority: Sheets, Kapler, Riske, Branyan, Dillon and Vinny Rottino. Three other September call-ups, Alcides Escobar, Tim Dillard and Mark DiFelice, are on hand but will watch games from the clubhouse. Extra players are kept because changes can be made to rosters between rounds of the playoffs, or during a series if a player is injured. Infielder Mike Lamb, signed in September and therefore ineligible, went home for the birth of a baby. Minor league catcher Angel Salome left to prepare for the Arizona Fall League.


Deal deadline closer: The deadline for completing the CC Sabathia trade is next Monday. Because the Brewers made the playoffs, Cleveland gets to choose the "player to be named." Had the Brewers fallen short, they would have named the player.

"It might be the same guy, you never know," said general manager Doug Melvin. "They might be split on the player or else they would have decided already. They're looking at medical records now."

Melvin wouldn't reveal the minor leaguers on the list provided but the names that come up most often are outfielder Michael Brantley, third baseman Taylor Green and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Whomever the Brewers lose, Melvin said he can live with it because of Sabathia's impact in making the playoffs.

"We have no regrets," said Melvin. "CC is the guy who got us here."
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby toledobuck » Thu Oct 02, 2008 10:35 am

There is such suspense over this like I have never seen with a PTBNL even for us rabid fans. I can honestly say it is going to be most difficult for whatever prospect we get to live up to this hype and build up. I would be hugely surprised if it is someone other than Brantley or Green. Count me down for Brantley if Shapiro/Wedge needs a tie breaker vote.

Lucroy is a great prospect but can't see him being the PTBNL. Escobar is probably a pipe dream. Jeffress I do not know much about but I have only seen his name brought up on this subject on message boards, never the actual press or MLB team.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby dnosco » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:57 pm

As I said, it may have been a good thing that Shapiro negotiated it this way or a bad thing. If he increases his chances of getting a player BETTER than Brantley or Green then this was a good deal. If all this is is another stipulation protecting THE BREWERS at the time of the trade then it is laughable.

The Brewers made us trade at that moment or there was no deal

The Brewers said they would not give up Gamel AND LaPorta

and now it could be that the Brewers would lose less IF they didn't make the playoffs?

Unless it is someone greater than Green or Brantley, I mean significantly better, then this aspect of a deal favoring the Brewers before we found out this information even favors the Brewers more meaning, in my opinion, that whatever you thought of the deal at the time you probably have to consider it a worse deal right now, if ony incrementally.

I mean, how many PTBNL deals have you heard of where the team getting the PTBNL might get a worse PTBNL depending on how a team finishes in the standings.

Heck, we should have negotiated that if we finished less games behind than CC's wins minus losses we should have gotten a better PTBNL because trading him cost us the pennant (just kidding, but the same ridiculousness applies to what we are hearing now).
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Thu Oct 02, 2008 3:44 pm

I've officially stopped thinking about who the PTBNL is.

By all accounts the deadline is Monday at which point we'll all know. Could it be Brantley, Green, Lucroy, Jeffress, Escobar, Cain..... it could be any, I just don't know.

The biggest problem with all this speculation is not the build up, but the undoubted aftermath of second guessing that it will cause. The Indians and Brewers won't release who wasn't selected, but no matter who is selected there will be post after post of "Player X would've been the better pick", even though none of us will ever know for sure of that "Player X" was on the list.

I thought from day 1 that the list was Brantley/Green and I expected them to pick Brantley from that time too..... unless they pick someone other than those two, then I will continue to maintain that belief.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Oct 02, 2008 5:24 pm

Got a tip from a reliable person who also happens to be a site reader that Escobar is indeed an untouchable and is not in consideration for the PTBNL.

No surprise really. We were just praying it might happen. :mrgreen:
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby jellis » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:11 pm

so not sure if anyone would care but in Keith law's chat today he said he would choose Green over Brantley, didnt give a reason but just some more info
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby MadThinker88 » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:52 pm

jellis wrote:so not sure if anyone would care but in Keith law's chat today he said he would choose Green over Brantley, didnt give a reason but just some more info


Now that is interesting.... Just wish someone had pressed him for a reason behind the selection. There are a number of 'general' possible reasons: system need and ceiling/ upside of the compared prospects to name a few.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:57 pm

Speaking of tips, I have one from someone I know to be reliable but must remain anonymous. He said the decision was made this week to take Brantley pending review of medical reports. He anticipates the public disclosure on Monday. Shapiro was truthful that there were two players involved but he understands that both sides intentionally left wriggle room because Brantley figured in Milwaukee's short term plans. Milwaukee did not want to give up Brantley but absolutely ruled out Gamel or Escobar if the Indians took LaPorta. He had no idea what other prospects were on the table that could be substituted but, by his account, Cleveland agreed with Milwaukee's assessment that Brantley had upside and was reasonably close to ML ready. DO NOT TAKE THIS AS GOSPEL!!!! This was posted as information of interest only. :geek:
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby GhostofTedCox » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:50 pm

If the choice was just Brantley or Green it could have been made weeks ago. The injuries were not serious. You pick the player that is a better fit for your organization. (By the way, if they pick Brantley, then Laporta moves to 1B, because Choo will nail down RF.)

I still have a hunch that something unexpected will be announced. Here's a wild thought; If the Brewers were high on Brantley, how about if we trade him back, include a pitcher, and take Escobar. HE would be a better fit for the Indians.

:?
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby MadThinker88 » Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:03 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote: Here's a wild thought; If the Brewers were high on Brantley, how about if we trade him back, include a pitcher, and take Escobar. HE would be a better fit for the Indians.

:?

Not a bad thought but what pitcher are we talking about?? I have a hunch that the Brewers desired pitcher is someone we would balk at sending for Escobar and the pitchers we would be willing to send is not someone the Brewers would be interested in.
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Re: PTBNL Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:21 pm

If this ultimately comes down to Green and Brantley, shame on the Indians. Absolutely no reason to carry this on for this long unless the whole Brewers in/out of the playoffs really made a difference.
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