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BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

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BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby jellis » Fri Feb 06, 2009 12:26 am

As it is premium content did players 12-18 here as the indians have pick 15 so right now I figured these 6 players would be on the radar

12. Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt
Second Commodores lefty (following David Price) to earn BA's Summer Player of the Year award in last three years.

13. Jason Stoffel, rhp, Arizona
Served as closer ahead of first-round picks Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth on the Wildcats' 2008 super-regional club.

14. Kentrail Davis, of, Tennessee
Draft-eligible sophomore owns the best combination of speed and power among the college hitting crop.

15. Jacob Turner, rhp, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis
Might be better than last year's Missouri stud high school pitcher, Tim Melville.

16. Shelby Miller, rhp, Brownwood (Texas) HS
Top pitcher at Area Code Games, tossed two no-hitters and a perfect game in three consecutive starts last spring.

17. D.J. LeMahieu, ss, Louisiana State
Draft-eligible sophomore continues to move up as more scouts believe he'll remain at shortstop, provide plenty of offense.

18. Luke Bailey, c, Troup HS, LaGrange (Ga.) HS
Offensive and defensive talent headlines a deep crop of high school catching that blows away the college group.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/d ... 67547.html
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby jellis » Fri Feb 06, 2009 12:29 am

also did on BA Stephanie Storm had an article on miller, I know she is or was a writer for the beacon, not living in town i am a bit out of touch with the current writers. it is a lot of what we already knew but figured people would be interested

highlights

Now, if Miller makes it through spring training without any setbacks, there's an outside chance he could even make the squad out of camp. If not, it won't hurt to start the season at Triple-A Columbus until a spot opens in Cleveland's bullpen. Although Miller is entering his seventh professional season since being selected 31st overall in 2003, he's still just 24 years old.

"I saw a 97 miles an hour fastball, an 89 miles an hour sinker," Tribe farm director Ross Atkins told the Cleveland Plain Dealer after seeing Miller pitch out of the bullpen in the Dominican League. "I saw the complete Adam Miller, and we have every reason to believe his finger problems won't reoccur."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/m ... 67529.html
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Feb 06, 2009 10:41 am

jellis wrote:also did on BA Stephanie Storm had an article on miller, I know she is or was a writer for the beacon, not living in town i am a bit out of touch with the current writers. it is a lot of what we already knew but figured people would be interested

highlights

Now, if Miller makes it through spring training without any setbacks, there's an outside chance he could even make the squad out of camp. If not, it won't hurt to start the season at Triple-A Columbus until a spot opens in Cleveland's bullpen. Although Miller is entering his seventh professional season since being selected 31st overall in 2003, he's still just 24 years old.

"I saw a 97 miles an hour fastball, an 89 miles an hour sinker," Tribe farm director Ross Atkins told the Cleveland Plain Dealer after seeing Miller pitch out of the bullpen in the Dominican League. "I saw the complete Adam Miller, and we have every reason to believe his finger problems won't reoccur."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/m ... 67529.html


Sure they didn't see anything that pointed to the injury occurring in the first place.....


But it is great to see him pitching and looking healthy......definitely keeping my fingers crossed that this continues for all of 2009.....Aubrey was finally healthy last year.....hopefully it's Miller's turn now....
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby dnosco » Fri Feb 06, 2009 11:21 am

jellis wrote:As it is premium content did players 12-18 here as the indians have pick 15 so right now I figured these 6 players would be on the radar

12. Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt
Second Commodores lefty (following David Price) to earn BA's Summer Player of the Year award in last three years.

13. Jason Stoffel, rhp, Arizona
Served as closer ahead of first-round picks Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth on the Wildcats' 2008 super-regional club.

14. Kentrail Davis, of, Tennessee
Draft-eligible sophomore owns the best combination of speed and power among the college hitting crop.

15. Jacob Turner, rhp, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis
Might be better than last year's Missouri stud high school pitcher, Tim Melville.

16. Shelby Miller, rhp, Brownwood (Texas) HS
Top pitcher at Area Code Games, tossed two no-hitters and a perfect game in three consecutive starts last spring.

17. D.J. LeMahieu, ss, Louisiana State
Draft-eligible sophomore continues to move up as more scouts believe he'll remain at shortstop, provide plenty of offense.

18. Luke Bailey, c, Troup HS, LaGrange (Ga.) HS
Offensive and defensive talent headlines a deep crop of high school catching that blows away the college group.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/d ... 67547.html


Considering that, entering 2008 Tim Mehlville was the top 2008 draft prospect or one of the top 2 and he lasted until the 4th round and, at that, signed for a bonus about what he would have made if drafted at the end of the first round, it doesn't really matter who is ranked where, even at draft time. If you open your wallet there is almost always a top 10 talent when you pick in the first or second round and Mehlville is the poster child for that.

Besides, guys go up and down this list so much that the best use of them is to identify the sleepers in the draft once draft time comes around as some guys fall off the radar completely who were top 50 guys in the pre-season period. Eddie Burns who we signed out of Georgia Tech, I think, is a great example. Almost off the radar at draft time he made the top 100 college guys (i.e., easily a top 5 round talent) in the pre-season rankings.
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby petes999 » Fri Feb 06, 2009 2:17 pm

I agree with Dennis that talents change and some good 1st and 2nd round talents can be had in later rounds. That's why I am happy that we sent a CC to Brewers because the savings from him and Byrd probably went to a TJ House and others. Thus, we basically did better than the Brewers who get a 2nd and a supplemental pick and we got Laporta and Brantley. It all depends on how much you are willing to spend (reason why we should do more of that than Dellucci signings).

Yet, sometimes a top talent like Melville or others slips due to having a high bonus demands (more than the $1.25 million he signed for) and he only did signed due to the organization (he felt comfortable with KC, felt they were more family than any other organization that scouted him).

Thus, do you go after a Melville in 2nd over Haley .... probably, especially as we would have gotten a supplemental pick if we didn't sign him. Yet, sometimes we sign others than the top talent because we feel we have a better chance. Where 2-3 Fedroff's/House equate to a deeper farm system than 1 Melville especially if Melville has to have TJ surgery (as it seems 10%-20% of pitchers these days falter due to injury history like J.D. Martin).

Yet, with the talent we are starting to have in the system, it may be a good time to get 1-2 HS pitchers in the first few rounds (start to gamble a bit more). Yet, be careful what we wish for as freak injuries happen ... for every CC, you get a JD.
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Feb 06, 2009 3:07 pm

jellis wrote:As it is premium content did players 12-18 here as the indians have pick 15 so right now I figured these 6 players would be on the radar

12. Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt
Second Commodores lefty (following David Price) to earn BA's Summer Player of the Year award in last three years.

13. Jason Stoffel, rhp, Arizona
Served as closer ahead of first-round picks Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth on the Wildcats' 2008 super-regional club.

14. Kentrail Davis, of, Tennessee
Draft-eligible sophomore owns the best combination of speed and power among the college hitting crop.

15. Jacob Turner, rhp, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis
Might be better than last year's Missouri stud high school pitcher, Tim Melville.

16. Shelby Miller, rhp, Brownwood (Texas) HS
Top pitcher at Area Code Games, tossed two no-hitters and a perfect game in three consecutive starts last spring.

17. D.J. LeMahieu, ss, Louisiana State
Draft-eligible sophomore continues to move up as more scouts believe he'll remain at shortstop, provide plenty of offense.

18. Luke Bailey, c, Troup HS, LaGrange (Ga.) HS
Offensive and defensive talent headlines a deep crop of high school catching that blows away the college group.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/d ... 67547.html

FWIW, I really like #19 Givens better than 12-18. I happen to like him better as a SS in spite of his 96 fastball but it appears I am in the minority. Things may change, especially with the HSers, this spring but I think Matt Davidson, the 3B from California, has serious potential at the plate. If they are going pitcher, Turner would not be a bad choice but with the Tribe history, I think they will go with the safety of a college player and hold off on the eligible sophomores like they did this year.
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Feb 07, 2009 12:11 pm

It's nice to list out the better talents but the Tribe needs to be careful. Looking for only the best talent available maybe lead to holes in the system. It will also likely lead to the signing budget being used up rather quickly. Drafting only for needs will lead to continual over-reaches.

The only 'answer' I can give is drafting strategies need to have a balance between those schools of thought (best-talent and need).
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby dnosco » Sun Feb 08, 2009 11:42 am

"Yet, sometimes a top talent like Melville or others slips due to having a high bonus demands (more than the $1.25 million he signed for) and he only did signed due to the organization (he felt comfortable with KC, felt they were more family than any other organization that scouted him)."

I am pretty sure that Mehlville's bonus demands did not exceed $1.5 million, if that. Living in the St. Louis area I did see him pitch once and doing some research at the time (never actually talked to Mehlville because I never thought he would be around when Cleveland drafted) and talking to people in the area I am pretty sure that I am right on this. There was, essentially, zero difference in what we paid Haley and what we would have paid Mehlville. He DID NOT give KC a hometown discount and he certainly didn't sign with them because of either their ML history or their ability to develop high school pitchers!

Plus, even if we had drafted Mehlville in the second or third rounds and didn't sign him we would have gotten essentially the same pick back the next year...which is what I hoped they would do with Haley, if you remember. In my opinion, with the new draft rules, it is worse to draft a guy in the 4th round rather than the 3rd round because if you fail to sign a 4th rounder you lose that pick. If you pick at the end of the draft rounds like the Indians did last year, any pick you don't sign in the first 3 rounds you get back essentially the same pick next year.
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby dnosco » Sun Feb 08, 2009 11:47 am

Regarding Turner, Holt HS has a history of turning out stud baseball pitchers (Detweiler, Melville, Pontius). Westminster doesn't have that history. To me, along with the fact it is a private school that kids do not go to for the athletics shows me that it is the classic sucker's bet to take a guy like Turner. Not trying to be argumentative with anybody but, on the surface, it seems like a really, really bad gamble to take Turner unless he falls a few rounds.
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby petes999 » Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:51 pm

From Baseball America
High school righthander Tim Melville, whose talent would merit a first-round pick, is the one exception, but even his fall was tied as much to a college commitment as bonus demands. Melville's family sent a letter to clubs in May saying that he was strongly committed to North Carolina and would sign only for a bonus approaching those of the top 15 picks.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/dr ... 66305.html

Being a top 15 pick is about $1.8+ million. I have a feeling that it's more ... remember that NY and Boston didn't take him and Boston signed Casey Kelly to $3 million.

And, from the Kansas City Star

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals ... 49897.html

Before and after the draft, Melville and his family grew closer and closer with scouting director Deric Ladnier and other members of the Royals’ staff. That relationship was so close that many in baseball circles felt the Royals were the only organization that could Melville to skip his scholarship to play at North Carolina.


As he was slotted 15th from BA, I would think Detroit, NY or Boston would have taken him for $1.5 million (more than KC) if that letter to other organizations weren't looking for top 10 money.
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Re: BA top 33 draft propsects for next year

Postby petes999 » Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:35 pm

Dennis,

I do agree that we should have gambled with Melville in the 2nd or definitely the 3rd due to getting a supplemental pick. The worst thing that could happen was that we got a pick 5-10 slots below what we did as we had the end of the round slot ahead of Boston.

This year being in the middle of the round it is more of a gamble. Yet, if they are going to get yelled at by the commissioner for going over slot, might as well try to do it big.

Yet, it would not have been a fact either that Melville would have signed for $1.25 mill. either. And, they may have felt that they could have had Haley for $1 million.

I am starting to think that we should sign more HS and Dominican prospects for $75,000 and add another GCL type team to start to see who are our Rondon(s), De La Cruz, etc.. I think that is where we can get the biggest bang for the buck rather than spend $1.25 million for a HS pitcher who may blow out his arm. For every 2-3 HS pitcher (which 1 will surely not make it) we can get maybe 20 16 year old non-headliner Latin players of which 1 or 2 will make it.
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