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Pavano?

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Re: Pavano?

Postby dnosco » Wed Mar 11, 2009 8:57 am

Tony

Isn't that what we did with Jason Johnson? I mean, it's not like Millwood where there was a history of good performance. Pavano stunk except for one year. If he stinks now in ST, what evidence is there to risk running him out there for 7-10 probable bad starts, stressing the bullpen and still probably ending up with losses.

I mean, some glimmer of hope with three good performances strung together and I say it is worth a chance for a few starts (probably through the end of April). Any more than that, if he pitches like he has so far, and you are putting a big dent in your pennant chances.
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Re: Pavano?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:20 am

dnosco wrote:So far the guy is looking very Pavano-like and a waste of whatever they are paying him.

Question: If he continues like this do they do a Jason Johnson and run him out there for two months and 7 ugly starts, probably all losses, or do the do the same thing with a guy who might have a future, like Laffey or Sowers? I mean, my guess is that, at worst, the result is the same.

Thoughts?


Unless Pavano's arm falls off, he's on the team. He's looked better than Laffey, Sowers, or Lewis thus far. If the other guys were all having great springs it'd be one thing, but none of the pitchers really are.


It's way, way too early to look at the pitching stats (as Tony mentioned). I still think Pavano can get us 12 wins and an ERA around 4-4.2......but I may be in the minority here.....


I do agree totally though that if Pavano is struggling a lot after 7-10 starts he'll get cut ala Jason Johnson (though i thought he was technically traded to the Red Sox but basically just cut). We're paying him $1.5M even if we cut him right now.....and I don't believe his incentives start before 10 starts.....so you don't lose a whole lot seeing what he can do (again, if Laffey, Sowers, or Lewis were blowing people away things may be a bit different).....
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Re: Pavano?

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Mar 26, 2009 10:20 pm

I watched Pavano in Peoria yesterday. Some very clear observations on his six innings. First, I think I was wrong to assume this was a stupid signing. He looks much better than i thought he would and he appears healthy. That being said, there are some specifics that should concern us.

Until the 4th inning, he hardly threw any FPS and was working from behind on many batters. I tell you this because he does not pitch well behind in the count. He tends to go with his fastball which does not have the life it used to. In fact, several of his fastballs could best be described as "room service". He does not miss many bats with his fastball. On the other hand, he had an excellent change. Good deception and movement. It is the closest thing I see to a plus pitch. HIs slider is at least ML average and maybe better. There isn't as much depth as I recall and he pitches off the plate to RHs a lot but it is a very serviceable pitch. He keeps his fielders busy. I think it was the 5th inning that was an absolute highlight film for Asdrubal Cabrera. In summary, I still don't think he is a #3 any longer but if he stays healthy he will not embarrass us. He should keep the fires burning long enough to transition to Huff or Westbrook who, IMO, are real 3s. Worthwhile pickup even if it goes bad.
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Re: Pavano?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:46 am

I agree with everything you said (til the second to last sentence). I would have bet my life that one of Pavano, penny, or Garcia ended up in Cleveland this winter. Just a Shapiro-like move you knew was coming.

Pavano is definitely no Ace or even a #2 really. Like you hinted at, he's a decent stop-gap type of #3. Should be able to get us some innings, at least for the first half of the year. Seems healthy (though we've heard that before). I actually think he can win 12 games this year.....not often the Tribe's #3 starter does that.

I agree, Westbrook is a legit #3 (heck, i think on some teams he'd be a great #2)......but I wouldn't call Huff a 'real' #3. He struggled this spring, albeit nursing a sore arm. Honestly he looked like more of a 4-5......but if he can get the change going again, he could be a nice #3....
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Re: Pavano?

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Mar 27, 2009 3:39 pm

Hermie13 wrote:I agree with everything you said (til the second to last sentence). I would have bet my life that one of Pavano, penny, or Garcia ended up in Cleveland this winter. Just a Shapiro-like move you knew was coming.

Pavano is definitely no Ace or even a #2 really. Like you hinted at, he's a decent stop-gap type of #3. Should be able to get us some innings, at least for the first half of the year. Seems healthy (though we've heard that before). I actually think he can win 12 games this year.....not often the Tribe's #3 starter does that.

I agree, Westbrook is a legit #3 (heck, i think on some teams he'd be a great #2)......but I wouldn't call Huff a 'real' #3. He struggled this spring, albeit nursing a sore arm. Honestly he looked like more of a 4-5......but if he can get the change going again, he could be a nice #3....

Maybe we are stuck on the definitions of a #3? I have always gone with the classical, I think, approach that a pitcher should have a plus pitch, an above average ML pitch and. at least, one 3rd pitch that Is ML average. I think Huff qualifies with a plus change, above average ML fastball and an average slider. In the long view, I really would not be too concerned about the ST numbers. I think they suspected he would have a sore arm and was not a real candidate to go north unless he "lit it up".

Westbrook gets there a different way. His fastball(sinker) may get a plus plus. Changing speeds on the sinker is above average even though he does not throw a true change IMO. I would like to think his slider is ML average but it's close.

Interestingly, Lewis gets a decent grade as a #3 in spite of his fastball, which I do not consider ML average. He has a curve which has even been described as plus plus. Although I consider the change to be above average, many people argue plus. He also has a slider which is at least ML average and likely better. He has fallen in love with the slider, an easier pitch to locate, over this magnificent 12-6 curve. I think he will have to resurrect his curve to maximize his ML effectiveness. Can you imagine what it was like to face this guy when he was throwing in low 90s up to 95? All I am saying is to be careful when you relegate Lewis to long term failure because of the fastball. There is more than one way to skin a cat! :s_dance
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Re: Pavano?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:10 pm

No, we have similar views on a #3.......just that Huff didn't show any 'plus' pitch this spring. Again I do think it will be a plus pitch like it was last year when he was dominating (though against AA hitters mostly). Hopefully it was just the sore arm that hurt his pitches this spring.....I'm also not 'totally' enamored with Huff's fastball...it's better than the other lefties, but I question just how 'above average' it really is....

I guess part of my 'issue' (if you can even really call it that, more of just a difference in opinion) with the #3 thing is I don't like calling a guy who's never pitched in the MLs a 'real' anything other than a real nice prospect.....cause right now, that's all Huff is. I mean, Adam Miller looked like a 'real' #2. Had a plus-plus pitch (fastball) and plus-pitch in his slider.....and the changeup was reportedly showing good signs as well.

Obviously it was an injury that hurt his chances of reaching that.....but still, he only 'looked' like one. Untill you face ML hitters, you can't really say for sure....though maybe that's just a personal petpeeve of mine.


I obviously truely hope Huff becomes a legit #3. With Lee and Westbrook slated for free agency after the 2010 season we can certainly use him there.....


I also disagree on Lewis's curve being 'plus plus' reportedly. I've never seen that (though I did miss that BA had him as a prospect still....so obviously I could have missed that) anywhere or even saying it could become one. I've recently read more good thigns about his changeup than his curve in fact.

And again, I truly do hope Lewis turns out to be a solid MLer......


But I'm getting Jason Stanford vibes from him......


In fact.....anyone see any similarites between the stout group of lefties from the early 2000s and now? I'm talking about the group of Cliff Lee, Billy Traber, Brian Tallet, and Jason Stanford vs. Jeremy Sowers, Aaron Laffey, David Huff, and Scott Lewis?


Is Huff the next Lee? Lee was a big piece in the trade...

Is Sowers the next Traber? Both big draft picks (traber 16th overall, sowers 6th)....Traber failed after showing some promise....will Sowers?

Is Laffey the next Tallet? ha, honestly I see little comparison here. Just both lefties. laffey is younger than tallet was and a much lower draft pick....Jackson actually could be a decent Tallet comparison. Failed high pick (tallet was a 2nd round, jackson a sup 1st pick) starters. Tallet has become a rather nice lefty reliever with the Blue Jays the last 2 years. Can Jackson do it for Cleveland?

And is Lewis the next Stanford? Stanford did win a starting job out of the pen at one point pretty unexpectedly too after a great spring only to blow out his arm and become a minor league journeyman....never had that great of stuff and reminds me a bit of Lewis....


Again, I really hope none of those (other than the Huff/Lee one) comes true. I still think Sowers can make something of his career and hope he can in Cleveland. I really want to see how using both fastballs to both righties and lefties works for him over a full season. Laffey is still very young, so I don't think he'll end up in the pen, but he does lack super stuff......


None of those comparison are really 'legit'....but I have just found it kind of intersting that all 4 our current lefties have pitched together at some level (all pitched in AAA last year) and all the old ones pitched together as well.....
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Re: Pavano?

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:46 pm

I think the comparisons aren't bad. Some thoughts.

Huff may be an above average breaking ball away from "close" to Cliff Lee ability. Lee's fastball has slightly better life but Huff has a superior change. Lee's curve and slider are both superior to Huff's modest ML average slider. I could make a reasonable case that Lee has a plus curve even though he does not use the pitch often. You have the difference between TOR and MOR, IMO.

I believe there is a huge difference between Lewis and Sanford. Sanford lacked Lewis' secondary pitches. I think Sanford is a better comp to Laffey but Laffey's sinker is a better pitch than anything I recall from Sanford. If I had to pick a comp for Tallet, it would be Jackson or Sowers because of the style similarities. Sowers compares more to Traber in many respects after the injury.

Lewis' plus plus is not recent. It was after his "lights out" performance in Kinston. He seemed to lose his ability to locate the massive break with the arm troubles in Akron. Those arm troubles cost him a few feet on his fastball and there may be a correlation. To me, there is always the hope he will get both back as time from the injuries increase but that hope is increasingly unlikely due to his age.

We will disagree on Miller. When healthy, Miller had two plus plus pitches and and an above average 3rd pitch. Clearly a #1 projection wise. As we know, though, being a genetic freak does have its downside.

I tend to believe that when a pitcher, or position player, reaches the show, he either reaches his projection potential or he doesn't. The projection is really the constant IMO. As we know, some pitchers exceed projection potential but that is less likely than under performing. Just opinion stuff! :s_cool
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Re: Pavano?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 30, 2009 8:57 am

Stanford had really good stuff actually (not great though) before his injury in 2004. Lewis may have had better though.....was just going by the almost 'out of left field' winning of a rotation spot for both guys (not that Lewis was 'that' big a shock, but he definitely wasn't the front runner and neither was Stanford when he won it). That was where I was drawing that comparison more than stuff really.


Yeah, I really was high on Traber and wonder how he would have done had there been no arm injury....


My reasoning behind not projecting Miller as a #1 has little to do with his pitches....more his mental makeup. I'm not sold he has it....but then again, not being on the field much, it's hard to say for sure. Just my opinion though.....but I will say Miller trying to come back with that finger is great to see.
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Re: Pavano?

Postby jellis » Mon Mar 30, 2009 12:00 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Stanford had really good stuff actually (not great though) before his injury in 2004. Lewis may have had better though.....was just going by the almost 'out of left field' winning of a rotation spot for both guys (not that Lewis was 'that' big a shock, but he definitely wasn't the front runner and neither was Stanford when he won it). That was where I was drawing that comparison more than stuff really.


Yeah, I really was high on Traber and wonder how he would have done had there been no arm injury....


My reasoning behind not projecting Miller as a #1 has little to do with his pitches....more his mental makeup. I'm not sold he has it....but then again, not being on the field much, it's hard to say for sure. Just my opinion though.....but I will say Miller trying to come back with that finger is great to see.


mental make up? Miller has a great head on his shoulders and there is only one question mark on the kid its his health. If he had zero health injuries he would be our number 2 pitcher right now ahead of fausto. Yes injuries have majorly derailed his career, but that has been the only negative I have ever seen. He has 2 devastating pitches and by ever account I have seen exactly the mentally you want from a pitcher with his skill set
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Re: Pavano?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 30, 2009 1:35 pm

jellis wrote:mental make up? Miller has a great head on his shoulders and there is only one question mark on the kid its his health. If he had zero health injuries he would be our number 2 pitcher right now ahead of fausto. Yes injuries have majorly derailed his career, but that has been the only negative I have ever seen. He has 2 devastating pitches and by ever account I have seen exactly the mentally you want from a pitcher with his skill set


All I know is most 'experts' have had him pegged as a #2 for the last few years (even before last year's injury and this current finger issue).

And I disagree that he'd be our number two ahead of Fausto even without the injuries. It's possible, but Fausto when healthy is a legit #1-2 as well.

And how can we really tell if Miller has the mental makeup to be a #1? He's been hurt so much that it's hard to tell. He has had a good head about him in the minors....but that means little at the ML level. Miller still needs to prove that he has the mental makeup to be a #1-2.....or a closer even if he remains in the pen.....
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