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What now?

Talk about the Cleveland Indians, Major League Baseball, and other sports.

Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:45 pm

MickS wrote:I think most of us are saying the same thing. There's no need to trade Shoppach until somebody comes to us with the proverbial "offer that we can't refuse". Patience.


Which isn't coming barring Posada going down for the whole year.....
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Re: What now?

Postby MickS » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:49 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
MickS wrote:I think most of us are saying the same thing. There's no need to trade Shoppach until somebody comes to us with the proverbial "offer that we can't refuse". Patience.


Which isn't coming barring Posada going down for the whole year.....


If it doesn't, it doesn't. Someday I want to borrow that crystal bal of yours, Hermie.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:57 pm

MickS wrote:If it doesn't, it doesn't. Someday I want to borrow that crystal bal of yours, Hermie.


You don't need a crystal ball. Just look around the league. There are more available catchers than open spots. And Texas also has 2-3 catchers they can trade (likely only 1 would go, but have 3 options for teams). Some with bigger upsides than Shoppach in fact.....


If you can find a team that makes sense for Shoppach that I didn't list, by all means please share it. Cause other than the Yanks and maybe the Red Sox, I just can't see any team giving us a lot for Shoppach.....not with how he played defense last year.....
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Wed Jan 07, 2009 1:02 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Most GMs and scouts would prefer a catcher that throws out 35-40% of runners and hits 10 HRs than a guy that hits 20 but only throws out 20% of runners 10 out of 10 times.


Do you know how many qualified catchers caught more than 35% of runners in all of MLB in 2008?

4

Most GMs and scouts would prefer a catcher who does both, but there's only one of those guys (Joe Mauer..... and possibly a healthy Victor).

Shoppach was shaky to start the year defensively last year (looked a little lazy to me - I'm sure he had like 6 passed balls in the first month), but (going from eye only) he was back to his "normal self" later in the year.

Plus, he's got good career CS numbers too: -

2006 - 36.7% (11 out of 30)

2007 - 36.1% (13 out of 36)

Career - 29.6% (34 out of 115)

I wouldn't write Shop off after one subpar CS year.... we all did that with Victor in 2006 and we saw how that turned out.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:04 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:Do you know how many qualified catchers caught more than 35% of runners in all of MLB in 2008?

4

Most GMs and scouts would prefer a catcher who does both, but there's only one of those guys (Joe Mauer..... and possibly a healthy Victor).

Shoppach was shaky to start the year defensively last year (looked a little lazy to me - I'm sure he had like 6 passed balls in the first month), but (going from eye only) he was back to his "normal self" later in the year.

Plus, he's got good career CS numbers too: -

2006 - 36.7% (11 out of 30)

2007 - 36.1% (13 out of 36)

Career - 29.6% (34 out of 115)

I wouldn't write Shop off after one subpar CS year.... we all did that with Victor in 2006 and we saw how that turned out.


key there was qualified.....how many catchers actually qualified? Bet it's not 30......



Shoppach was still late in the year throwing balls into CF when trying to catch attempted base stealers. He didn't improve at all as the year went on....may have gotten worse in fact.

I did say Shoppach was good before in his career......but it brings into question those numbers. Can he reach them in a full season or will his body wear down again as it did in 2008 (never good when your catcher needs knee surgery after his first ML season as a starter).


And like I said, I have some faith that he can rebound. Victor did after working really hard in the offseason with Skinner on his defense.


Now will Shoppach work as hard? Who knows.....but hopefully he will.....
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Re: What now?

Postby dnosco » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:25 pm

The only reason Shoppach would have trouble throwing out runners all of a sudden was if he had arm problems. Other than that, at his age, you just don't forget how to throw out runners. I mean, I have never seen Steve Blass or Steve Sax disease attributed to cathers other than in a movie once. :-)

He will be good defensively this year at throwing out runners, calling a game and blocking balls. It is just who he is as a catcher and, as we know from experience, guys with good defensive catching skills hang on for a long time BECAUSE they don't forget how to play defense AND catching skills, other than not being able to squat any longer, just don't seem to disappear that fast.
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:27 pm

Hermie13 wrote:key there was qualified.....how many catchers actually qualified? Bet it's not 30......



16 qualified, so only 25% of qualified catchers we at or above 35%.

Of those 4 they hit the following amount of HRs: -

Jason Kendall - 2

Dioner Navarro - 7

Kurt Suzuki - 7

Joe Mauer - 9

So, whilst your statement of "any GM would take a guy who catches 35-40% of basestealers and hits 10HRs" may or may not be true, the fact is that player didn't exist in 2008.

And seeing as though you're discounting Shoppachs defensive numbers from his partial seasons, then you can only consider "qualified" catchers within your arguement based on the fact that you said

I did say Shoppach was good before in his career......but it brings into question those numbers. Can he reach them in a full season or will his body wear down again as it did in 2008


If there are catchers that fit your criteria (there may or may not be - I'd guess not though) who didn't qualify in 2008 then you've just said yourself why we can't count them.
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:31 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:key there was qualified.....how many catchers actually qualified? Bet it's not 30......



16 qualified, so only 25% of qualified catchers we at or above 35%.

Of those 4 they hit the following amount of HRs: -

Jason Kendall - 2

Dioner Navarro - 7

Kurt Suzuki - 7

Joe Mauer - 9

So, whilst your statement of "any GM would take a guy who catches 35-40% of basestealers and hits 10HRs" may or may not be true, the fact is that player didn't exist in 2008.

And seeing as though you're discounting Shoppachs defensive numbers from his partial seasons, then you can only consider "qualified" catchers within your arguement based on the fact that you said

I did say Shoppach was good before in his career......but it brings into question those numbers. Can he reach them in a full season or will his body wear down again as it did in 2008


If there are catchers that fit your criteria (there may or may not be - I'd guess not though) who didn't qualify in 2008 then you've just said yourself why we can't count them.

You are trying to use intelligent thought with a juvenile. It doesn't work!
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:34 pm

dnosco wrote:The only reason Shoppach would have trouble throwing out runners all of a sudden was if he had arm problems. Other than that, at his age, you just don't forget how to throw out runners. I mean, I have never seen Steve Blass or Steve Sax disease attributed to cathers other than in a movie once. :-)

He will be good defensively this year at throwing out runners, calling a game and blocking balls. It is just who he is as a catcher and, as we know from experience, guys with good defensive catching skills hang on for a long time BECAUSE they don't forget how to play defense AND catching skills, other than not being able to squat any longer, just don't seem to disappear that fast.


Or it's that he doesn't have the endurance to hold up behind the plate for a full season.

And I'm not sold on Shoppach's game calling skills.....I'm beating this to death I know....but several pitchers were better when Shoppach wasn't behind the plate (some VERY noticably like Sowers). Shoppach doesn't have a ton of recent experience (at least going into last year) of calling games. Now will he be better this year with a nearly full 2008 season of starting under his belt? Quite possibly......but forgive me if I don't hold my breath on it......I've been a bit skeptical of his game calling skills since he was in Buffalo....
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:36 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:key there was qualified.....how many catchers actually qualified? Bet it's not 30......



16 qualified, so only 25% of qualified catchers we at or above 35%.

Of those 4 they hit the following amount of HRs: -

Jason Kendall - 2

Dioner Navarro - 7

Kurt Suzuki - 7

Joe Mauer - 9

So, whilst your statement of "any GM would take a guy who catches 35-40% of basestealers and hits 10HRs" may or may not be true, the fact is that player didn't exist in 2008.

And seeing as though you're discounting Shoppachs defensive numbers from his partial seasons, then you can only consider "qualified" catchers within your arguement based on the fact that you said

I did say Shoppach was good before in his career......but it brings into question those numbers. Can he reach them in a full season or will his body wear down again as it did in 2008


If there are catchers that fit your criteria (there may or may not be - I'd guess not though) who didn't qualify in 2008 then you've just said yourself why we can't count them.


My point was, how many non-qualifying catchers threw out 35-40%. I'm sure many GMs would take a guy that can do that and hit 5 or fewer HRs. The main thing for a catcher is to receive and throw out runners, plus call a great game. Hitting is an afterthought of sorts. Yeah, you want your starter to be pretty decent with the bat, but power doesn't need to come from the catcher spot.

You're right, if they didn't have enough at-bats to qualify they may not be able to hold up under a full season (I'll give you that point).


But I'm still worried about Shoppach's 'smarts' and willingness to put in time to improve. He made quite possibly the most childish play I've seen an Indian make in the last 15 years (which is saying a LOT considering Manny was on the team for a while) when he threw his mitt at a live ball that was over his head. To this day I can't believe he did it. 8 year old kids (and possibly even indianinkslinger......burn) know you can't do that. We were lucky the umpire didn't give the guy that hit the ball an extra base and the other team an extra run because of it. Luckily he was so bad he missed the ball with his glove so nothing was called (though Leyland was POed).

He's nearly 30....he needs to so more maturity and leadership behind the plate.....which I'm not sold on.....but really hope I'm wrong.... :s_drinks
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Re: What now?

Postby endlesssleeper » Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:02 pm

when did this incident happen???? none of that sounds remotely familiar to me.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:10 pm

Shoppach is so over rated by fans, if he is not moved I will be pissed value will not be higher. Teams will have a book on him next year and with hsi K rate its obvious he must have a massive hole in his swing
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:12 pm

Believe me it did. Almost positive it was against the Tigers. LFer threw the ball to home (or maybe it was a cutoff man) and the throw was about 8-10 feet over Shoppach's head. He jumped up to catch it and threw his mitt at the ball. Luckily he missed it. Leyland came out and was screaming that the batter (who was on third now) should have gotten an extra base (which by rule, he could have), which would have scored the runner. However, the umps ruled that since the glove missed the ball (or maybe they just didn't see it) and the runner stayed on 3B.

I'll never let that live....it was even dumber than the time Tony Pena used his mask to scope up a ball at home plate....which is also a big no-no. Runners advanced a base because of his play (so guess you could call Pena's worse since it cost us something).....
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:57 pm

jellis wrote:Shoppach is so over rated by fans, if he is not moved I will be pissed value will not be higher. Teams will have a book on him next year and with hsi K rate its obvious he must have a massive hole in his swing

Cannot argue your rationale but he still looks like an awfully good backup. In all honesty, would you trade him for any other backup catcher in baseball? Especially at his price/age. I think his trade value might get higher if some catchers wind up on the DL but that is pure speculation. I also think the book on Shoppach has been well read by now but you could be right. In any event, it might be worth waiting to see if some real old catchers in the AL east break down. I think the Rangers are probably doing the same thing.
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Re: What now?

Postby TheWord » Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:08 am

His K rate could possibly go down as he reverts back to his role as a backup. This would make his value higher heading into the All Star break, and provide insurance to an oft-injured Martinez for the first half of the season.
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:02 am

Looks like the Red Sox are about to sign Smoltz, so maybe they'd be more inclined to deal a young starter now.

Rotation of: -

Beckett
Dice K
Smoltz
Wakefield
Penny

Leaves them with Bucholz on the outside looking in.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/s ... aning.html
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:04 am

dazindiansfanuk wrote:Looks like the Red Sox are about to sign Smoltz, so maybe they'd be more inclined to deal a young starter now.

Rotation of: -

Beckett
Dice K
Smoltz
Wakefield
Penny

Leaves them with Bucholz on the outside looking in.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/s ... aning.html


um....did Lester blow out an arm? He's definately in that rotation......

Buckholz was already on the outside looking in before anything about Smoltz came up......wouldn't suprise me if the the Sox tried using Smoltz in the pen.....though no idea why he'd really accept that unless he was going to be the closer (which isn't happening in Boston)....
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:11 am

Another thing with Smoltz.......anyone see what the deal is?

Accoring to reports....it's a gurnateed $5.5M with incentives pushing it up to $10M.........that's for a guy likely to start the year on the DL and is over 40.......

Accodring to some reports, he's not even gonna be able to pitch in the MLs til June 1st......
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:37 am

Shit, Lester..... totally forgot about him.

Good spot Hermie.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:23 pm

smotlz is pen incentive to me for the red soxes and they added Rocco Baldelli today
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Re: What now?

Postby tphat09 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:17 pm

I really don't see why either Smoltz or the red sox are considering this deal... I mean Smoltz only has a year or two left and has been with the Braves his whole career, where he is a hero. So he is now fighting for a spot in a pretty solid rotation and seems to be at best a setup man. The Red Sox now are making more of a logjam for Bucholz and others and spending 5 mil on a guy who probably wont make much of an impact even when he does finally step on the field
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:54 pm

cause the 5 mil doesnt hurt them and if he comes back healthy smotlz for 5 mil is a steal, its a great deal its the type of rick move a team shoudl make not the pavano type.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 09, 2009 10:10 am

The Red Sox would have been way smarter though to go after a guy like Juan Cruz for less money in 2009 if they want Smoltz as a setup man (which makes no sense for Smoltz to even consider).


If Smoltz comes back healthy and can start 15-18 games and be a great pitcher in them, then he may be worth it......but isn't it nearly the same thing as Pavano? Yeah Pavano is no where near the caliber of pitcher as Smoltz....but Pavano can actually pitch day 1 and is about 10 years younger...and costs about $4M less guranteed.....
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Re: What now?

Postby petes999 » Fri Jan 09, 2009 2:32 pm

I think now we sit tight and wait until mid-season for our next move. I have always said that we should have traded Shoppach for a young front-line starting pitcher/prospect. I think that Shoppach has a lot of value. The value will go up though as the year progresses as there aren't too many good catchers who have the HR punch and CS %. Shoppach may not be the best defensive talent, yet he does a decent job at it along with having power.

People laughed when I suggested in another post somewhere that Shoppach could land us a Hughes, Kennedy, Buchholz or Materson in a trade package. I know Buchholz would have been maybe Gut and Shoppach (reason I didn't like Valbuena trade at the time is that it gave up a trading chip).

Yet, now it looks like Boston invested a lot in Smoltz and have no room on their pitching staff for 3-4 young promising staring pitcher as Smolz isn't going to the pen with his incentives and already at $5 million.

I think we would have been better with a young pitching prospect for Shoppach than Pavano. Yet, if he pitches like Millwood, Shapiro did very well. If not, we wait and see if Boston loosens its hold on prospects.

According to MLB Rumors:
Despite signing John Smoltz, the Red Sox still are not willing to trade Clay Buchholz for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The Sox may be willing to move Michael Bowden or especially Daniel Bard for Salty.


I know Salty is younger, yet just 1/2 season less than Shoppach at ML level. And, Shoppach has a better CS and HR to Salty and equivalentl BA in AL. Thus, I think Shoppach would get just as much if not more in a trade. With Boston signing Baldelli, what would have Shoppach and Gut given us? May not have been Buchholz, yet it was getting closer.

How would our SP look with Lee, Carmona, Reyes, Buchholz/Materson and Laffey? I would live with that. Then next year we have Miller and Westbrook competing for a spot with Huff still waiting. Not bad.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 09, 2009 2:53 pm

Salty is 23....Shoppach is 28......Shoppach is arbitration eligible already....Salty isn't.....

Salty is worth more to many teams than Shoppach, plain and simple.


Shoppach was NEVER gonna get us Buckholz, even adding Gut (Baldelli is better offensively by a lot than Gut). Same with Hughes and Kennedy since the Yanks still have Posada.

Masterson was a big maybe....and still is I guess.....but doubtful as well. Sox have basically made him untouchable.
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Re: What now?

Postby carnegie44115 » Fri Jan 09, 2009 4:32 pm

If the Red Sox were even to think about taking Shoppach back, better be thinking more along the lines of a package of David Pauley and Kris Johnson.
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Re: What now?

Postby JP_Frost » Fri Jan 09, 2009 5:03 pm

the only guy I can see Boston trading for Shoppach is Michael Bowden.
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Re: What now?

Postby carnegie44115 » Fri Jan 09, 2009 5:19 pm

Just saw a report from Gammons,

It appears the Red Sox have been looking at Miguel Montero of the Dbacks, and it says the Red Sox are unwilling to trade Bowden for him. So if that's the case, I highly doubt they would trade Bowden for Shoppach when they could get a catcher that is 3 years younger and possibly more upside.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Fri Jan 09, 2009 5:33 pm

Hermie13 wrote:The Red Sox would have been way smarter though to go after a guy like Juan Cruz for less money in 2009 if they want Smoltz as a setup man (which makes no sense for Smoltz to even consider).


If Smoltz comes back healthy and can start 15-18 games and be a great pitcher in them, then he may be worth it......but isn't it nearly the same thing as Pavano? Yeah Pavano is no where near the caliber of pitcher as Smoltz....but Pavano can actually pitch day 1 and is about 10 years younger...and costs about $4M less guranteed.....



its similar in terms of the teams ability smotlz for 5 mil is near nothing for the soxes, and yoru missing the big point on cruz, he is a type A FA and no one has signed him because of that soxes arent giving up a draft pick to sign cruz and they lose nothing but cash for Smoltz
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Re: What now?

Postby JP_Frost » Fri Jan 09, 2009 5:48 pm

carnegie44115 wrote:Just saw a report from Gammons,

It appears the Red Sox have been looking at Miguel Montero of the Dbacks, and it says the Red Sox are unwilling to trade Bowden for him. So if that's the case, I highly doubt they would trade Bowden for Shoppach when they could get a catcher that is 3 years younger and possibly more upside.


ah, if that's the case then there'd be no match between Boston and Cleveland.
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Re: What now?

Postby petes999 » Fri Jan 09, 2009 6:14 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Salty is 23....Shoppach is 28......Shoppach is arbitration eligible already....Salty isn't.....
Salty is worth more to many teams than Shoppach, plain and simple.


I don't know much about Salty ... yet from his minor league career, it doesn't look like he has played a full season really. And he has only 1 year that he hit more than 10 or 11 HRs.

We like the youth. Yet, in days of free agency how much does it really matter when you only have them for so many years. Do you want a 4-5 years of someone who is already groomed or 4-5 years of a prospect that may hit his stride in 2-3 years? We think that if we get a hold of a 23 year old, that we control them for 10 years. It just isn't so anymore. Salty only has 1 few year in the bigs, so he may be eligible for arbitration next year. So what is the difference in 23 vs 28 unless you are going to tell me Salty is going to turn on the juice like Sizemore?

I think we devalue Shoppach. Yet, look at trade proposals we had out there to get Dunn. He did hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs yet hit .250 while doing it - good states. Yet, his average kills him against other OFs who can hit slightly less HRs but higher average. He is a good outfielder. Yet, Shoppach had 21 HRs and 55 RBIs and higher average (slightly) in fewer games and is a defensive asset (slightly) at catcher. The improvement in Shoppach behind the plate hitting 25HRs in my mind is a slightly better or even chip (given he can replicate this again) than an outfielder with no defense who hits 40HRs. I can go out and get an OF that hits 25-30 HRs relatively easily compared to a catcher who can even hit 15HRs. OFs are expected to produce, catchers aren't. The value of a trade is the value of the upgrade.

I may exaggerate a bit as Dunn is more of a proven commodity, yet I am trying to prove a point. My point is Shoppach hitting 10-15 or more HRs and about same batting average than the average catcher in the league is about the same value (given he can prove he can do this year-in-year-out) is similar or greater valule as an outfielder that hits 15 more HRs than average OF yet doesn't even get close to batting average for an outfielder.

It's like saying that Garko is a great player because he can hit 15-20 HRs yet we expect 25 HRs from a 1st baseman. Don't undervalue Shoppach because he adds value to a difficult position where most catchers either give you one of three (defense, average, HR). Shoppach gives you an upgrade at defense (slightly) and power.
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Re: What now?

Postby JP_Frost » Fri Jan 09, 2009 7:39 pm

The fact that Dunn is better than so many outfielders is not just his power, but in large part his on base ability. Who cares if he hits .230 and strikes out 200 times? He still puts up a .900 OPS

You're right that playing a premium position makes some players more valuable. However, Shoppach won't play much if Victor is healthy so that decreases his value. That's the point alot of people have made about trading him now -- he likely won't get another season with 400 AB's in Cleveland, making his value in 08 the highest it'll ever be (probably).
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 3:43 pm

petes999 wrote:I don't know much about Salty ... yet from his minor league career, it doesn't look like he has played a full season really. And he has only 1 year that he hit more than 10 or 11 HRs.

We like the youth. Yet, in days of free agency how much does it really matter when you only have them for so many years. Do you want a 4-5 years of someone who is already groomed or 4-5 years of a prospect that may hit his stride in 2-3 years? We think that if we get a hold of a 23 year old, that we control them for 10 years. It just isn't so anymore. Salty only has 1 few year in the bigs, so he may be eligible for arbitration next year. So what is the difference in 23 vs 28 unless you are going to tell me Salty is going to turn on the juice like Sizemore?


Shoppach is a free agent in 3 years.....not 4-5 years.....
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 3:46 pm

carnegie44115 wrote:Just saw a report from Gammons,

It appears the Red Sox have been looking at Miguel Montero of the Dbacks, and it says the Red Sox are unwilling to trade Bowden for him. So if that's the case, I highly doubt they would trade Bowden for Shoppach when they could get a catcher that is 3 years younger and possibly more upside.


Montero isn't that great of a catcher. He was pretty good in the minors but hasn't been able to sustain anything at the ML level. Could become better than Shoppach....but Shoppach definately has more value than him.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Sat Jan 10, 2009 6:34 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
carnegie44115 wrote:Just saw a report from Gammons,

It appears the Red Sox have been looking at Miguel Montero of the Dbacks, and it says the Red Sox are unwilling to trade Bowden for him. So if that's the case, I highly doubt they would trade Bowden for Shoppach when they could get a catcher that is 3 years younger and possibly more upside.


Montero isn't that great of a catcher. He was pretty good in the minors but hasn't been able to sustain anything at the ML level. Could become better than Shoppach....but Shoppach definately has more value than him.



its pretty even, value wise I think just when you factor in money, years left, potential

I still think FLA might be the best bet for the indians unless you think buck can get it done
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Re: What now?

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 6:50 pm

MAYBE a 3 way deal is possible between Cleveland, Florida and Boston.
Time to start creating some different scenarios.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:41 am

jellis wrote:its pretty even, value wise I think just when you factor in money, years left, potential

I still think FLA might be the best bet for the indians unless you think buck can get it done


Baker is fine in Florida. They are tight on money as it is.....not sure they'd want to add another arbitration eligible guy.


As far as Montero and Shoppach.....Montero only has 1 more year before free agency than Shoppach. He hasn't shown anything yet at the ML. Shoppach's value is higher, plain and simple. His potential isn't anything greater than Shoppach.....even is being optimistic....
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:42 pm

I am not sure there will be much activity initiated by Shapiro other than cleaning out some of the excess players from the roster, both ML and organization. Although I am not greatly cheered by his choice for a starting pitcher, he has accomplished what he set out to do at the beginning of the off season. The tribe has Barfield and Marte who have such little value they might be cut. Dellucci has little trade value but might serve some use as a 4th OF while Columbus OFs develop.

What can the tribe do to improve significantly by trade? They have three potential trading chips, IMO. First is Shoppach. I would imagine Shapiro will let the market come to him and that is the right choice. When some team needs a potential injury replacement or upgrade to their starting catching, I would guess that Texas and Cleveland would be the first calls. Retaining Shoppach until that time allows some flexibility and depth. That is not necessarily a bad thing even though Shoppach is probably near his peak trade value.

Of the Indian relievers, Betancourt might have the most positive financial impact on the team. He may also have the maximum return from a contender in need of veteran help. I confess that I am eager to see Miller and Meloan on the ML roster but I can wait until someone comes calling. Koba also meets some of the same criteria but does not look that trade-able to me.

Last, but not necessarily least, is the fact that the Indians have a plethora of MOR/BOR ML ready LH starters. Everyone on this blog knows the positives and negatives of the group. Some may be better than others. All could easily translate to 4A status. But the fact that they are LH and have a pulse could be a real positive for teams needing a lefty starter. I can think of no other franchise that has this excess of LH starters. The fact that any could be added without huge financial impact to another franchise is probably a bonus.

The bigger question, IMO, is what do we trade for? I, for one, think the Indians are overspending now. Dolan and Shapiro have spent without fully considering the ramifications of lower attendance, regardless of team performance. The bitching about Dolan's cheapness bores me. He is spending like a financially sound mid market baseball franchise and Cleveland is small market and getting worse by the day. He is putting his financial eggs in Ohio and I think that is great. But from a financial perspective, I don't think much of the idea. I think the best Cleveland can hope for are high ceiling prospects. Any team that wants these players won't trade a ML ballplayer that would help the Indians.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 13, 2009 10:19 am

I gurantee Barfield does not get cut. That would be the most idiotic move ever. He still does have trade value. Not nearly what it was when we got him, but any player of his age and position that has shown success at the ML level still has some value, especially considering he still has minor league options left so worst case you send him to Columbus.

Marte is the interesting one.....he made it all of last season without getting cut.....though had we not suffered the injuries we did and been in competition all year I'm not so sure that would have been the case. However, the Tribe already has decided to designate Aubrey this winter rather than Marte.....Tribe definately still likes him....the ability to play both corner infield spots could make him a nice bench players this year as well. As far as trade value.....not zero.....but pretty close. A team that's not looking to compete this year may take a chance on him....not straight up, but in some sort of package deal.....he'd be a throw-in to any deal for sure though.

I don't see many teams lining up to trade for Betancourt. He was pretty bad for most of last year. He's only really got 1 year left on his deal (no one will pick up the option he has for 2010, making him a free agent after the year). Looking at what we gave up for DeRosa......think half of that (if that) for Betancourt......but that really doesn't improve our team at all in 2009, and likely wouldn't do much for it in 2010 and beyond either. Unless packaged in a deal with someone, he has little value. Same goes for Koby as you mentioned.....plus I don't think trading your first Japanese free agent signing 1 year after signing him is the best message to send to other future Japanese free agents......


I actually like having Dellucci on this team. He's a good 4th OFer to have. Doesn't embarass himself in the OF (though won't ever be mistaken for Grady). Isn't a bum on the bases (but again, no speedster). Has some pop in his bat. Is traditionally a solid pinch hitter (though struggled a bit last year). Can hit in several places in the lineup (2-hole or bottom of the order). He's also a great clubhouse guy to have (calls team meetings when they are needed). Only real downside is his salary. If he was only making $1.5-2M, most people would have no problem with him on the roster....$4M is too much for him though.....but not by that much. Is he tradeable? Yes.....but only in certain situations. Think about the Bartolo Colon deal. We got Grady, Phillips, Lee.......and Lee Stevens. Expos couldn't afford to take on all of Colon's salary so we took Stevens to make up a bit of the difference. Dellucci is a great candidate to possibly be a similar type of player. Tribe doesn't have much (if any) payroll flexibility as it stands....but could part with some prospects and toss in Looch to get a player they need mid-season. An example could be Bedard from the Mariners. He'll be getting at least $7M this year....bit pricy for the Tribe, but if Looch is going to the Mariners (along with 2-3 nice prospects mid-season), it'd be doable......but again, that was just an example.


Another trade guy that being ignored a bit is Ryan Garko. People think he has no value but did come on really strong at the end of last year and finished with 90 RBIs (thanks to hitting extremely well with RISP). He's also not arbitration eligible so will make near the league minimum, which is very enticing to some teams. All the focus has been on trading Shoppach.....but in the right scenario with the right team, I still think Garko could be moved (with Vic going to 1B and Shop catching). A team like Baltimore is in need of a 1B. They lost out on Tex and don't like the price for Dunn.......in could step Garko. He's been linked to them before (though how reliable those sources are is another story). Would be a very nice fit there. Other teams would be a fit for Garko as well (I still think the Angels would be....depends on if they go after Abreu or Dunn).

I'd still rather move Shoppach as it frees up more money (though only $1.5M)....plus I think Garko is gonna have a very nice year.....but it's still an option that should be explored (and I'm sure it has/will be by the Tribe FO).
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Jan 13, 2009 10:34 am

Hermie13 wrote:I gurantee Barfield does not get cut. That would be the most idiotic move ever. He still does have trade value. Not nearly what it was when we got him, but any player of his age and position that has shown success at the ML level still has some value, especially considering he still has minor league options left so worst case you send him to Columbus.

Marte is the interesting one.....he made it all of last season without getting cut.....though had we not suffered the injuries we did and been in competition all year I'm not so sure that would have been the case. However, the Tribe already has decided to designate Aubrey this winter rather than Marte.....Tribe definately still likes him....the ability to play both corner infield spots could make him a nice bench players this year as well. As far as trade value.....not zero.....but pretty close. A team that's not looking to compete this year may take a chance on him....not straight up, but in some sort of package deal.....he'd be a throw-in to any deal for sure though.

I don't see many teams lining up to trade for Betancourt. He was pretty bad for most of last year. He's only really got 1 year left on his deal (no one will pick up the option he has for 2010, making him a free agent after the year). Looking at what we gave up for DeRosa......think half of that (if that) for Betancourt......but that really doesn't improve our team at all in 2009, and likely wouldn't do much for it in 2010 and beyond either. Unless packaged in a deal with someone, he has little value. Same goes for Koby as you mentioned.....plus I don't think trading your first Japanese free agent signing 1 year after signing him is the best message to send to other future Japanese free agents......


I actually like having Dellucci on this team. He's a good 4th OFer to have. Doesn't embarass himself in the OF (though won't ever be mistaken for Grady). Isn't a bum on the bases (but again, no speedster). Has some pop in his bat. Is traditionally a solid pinch hitter (though struggled a bit last year). Can hit in several places in the lineup (2-hole or bottom of the order). He's also a great clubhouse guy to have (calls team meetings when they are needed). Only real downside is his salary. If he was only making $1.5-2M, most people would have no problem with him on the roster....$4M is too much for him though.....but not by that much. Is he tradeable? Yes.....but only in certain situations. Think about the Bartolo Colon deal. We got Grady, Phillips, Lee.......and Lee Stevens. Expos couldn't afford to take on all of Colon's salary so we took Stevens to make up a bit of the difference. Dellucci is a great candidate to possibly be a similar type of player. Tribe doesn't have much (if any) payroll flexibility as it stands....but could part with some prospects and toss in Looch to get a player they need mid-season. An example could be Bedard from the Mariners. He'll be getting at least $7M this year....bit pricy for the Tribe, but if Looch is going to the Mariners (along with 2-3 nice prospects mid-season), it'd be doable......but again, that was just an example.


Another trade guy that being ignored a bit is Ryan Garko. People think he has no value but did come on really strong at the end of last year and finished with 90 RBIs (thanks to hitting extremely well with RISP). He's also not arbitration eligible so will make near the league minimum, which is very enticing to some teams. All the focus has been on trading Shoppach.....but in the right scenario with the right team, I still think Garko could be moved (with Vic going to 1B and Shop catching). A team like Baltimore is in need of a 1B. They lost out on Tex and don't like the price for Dunn.......in could step Garko. He's been linked to them before (though how reliable those sources are is another story). Would be a very nice fit there. Other teams would be a fit for Garko as well (I still think the Angels would be....depends on if they go after Abreu or Dunn).

I'd still rather move Shoppach as it frees up more money (though only $1.5M)....plus I think Garko is gonna have a very nice year.....but it's still an option that should be explored (and I'm sure it has/will be by the Tribe FO).

What utter crap! You are the master of wasted space and misspelling!
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Re: What now?

Postby cardiackidz » Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:17 am

Dellucci is a horrible 4th outfielder. he has absolutely no arm and can only play leftfield because of it. if you want a 4th outfielder that can only play LF and cant hit then i guess hes good.
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:21 am

Hermie13 wrote:Marte is the interesting one.....he made it all of last season without getting cut.....though had we not suffered the injuries we did and been in competition all year I'm not so sure that would have been the case. However, the Tribe already has decided to designate Aubrey this winter rather than Marte.....Tribe definately still likes him....the ability to play both corner infield spots could make him a nice bench players this year as well. As far as trade value.....not zero.....but pretty close. A team that's not looking to compete this year may take a chance on him....not straight up, but in some sort of package deal.....he'd be a throw-in to any deal for sure though.


Anthony Castrovince made a good point in his blog mailbag the other day. He speculated that the likely reason they cut Aubrey instead of Marte is that Marte is the only Plan B the Indians have at 3B right now.

So, if the injury bug hits at 3B Marte would be the Indians only real cover option. However, the Garko gets injured they have Martinez who could step in at 1B (or DeRosa in a pinch with Carroll playing some 3B).

Castro basically was saying he doesn't think the Indians have a spot for Marte, but are keeping him for the time being incase the shit hits the fan.
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:23 am

Hermie13 wrote:Another trade guy that being ignored a bit is Ryan Garko. People think he has no value but did come on really strong at the end of last year and finished with 90 RBIs (thanks to hitting extremely well with RISP). He's also not arbitration eligible so will make near the league minimum, which is very enticing to some teams. All the focus has been on trading Shoppach.....but in the right scenario with the right team, I still think Garko could be moved (with Vic going to 1B and Shop catching). A team like Baltimore is in need of a 1B. They lost out on Tex and don't like the price for Dunn.......in could step Garko. He's been linked to them before (though how reliable those sources are is another story). Would be a very nice fit there. Other teams would be a fit for Garko as well (I still think the Angels would be....depends on if they go after Abreu or Dunn)


I hypothesized at the end of the 08 season that the Indians should trade Garko and look at signing a place holder like Giambi until the young guys (LaPorta/Mills etc) are ready to step in.

Looking at what Giambi signed for I now, more than ever, wish they had gone that route.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:31 am

dazindiansfanuk wrote:Anthony Castrovince made a good point in his blog mailbag the other day. He speculated that the likely reason they cut Aubrey instead of Marte is that Marte is the only Plan B the Indians have at 3B right now.

So, if the injury bug hits at 3B Marte would be the Indians only real cover option. However, the Garko gets injured they have Martinez who could step in at 1B (or DeRosa in a pinch with Carroll playing some 3B).

Castro basically was saying he doesn't think the Indians have a spot for Marte, but are keeping him for the time being incase the shit hits the fan.


As you said....Carroll is an option at 3B......as are Valbuena and Barfield (via a move of Peralta to 3B and AC to SS)......

I do agree though that only playing 1B is a big negative for Aubrey (and likely what kept him from being claimed by anyone).....
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:33 am

dazindiansfanuk wrote:I hypothesized at the end of the 08 season that the Indians should trade Garko and look at signing a place holder like Giambi until the young guys (LaPorta/Mills etc) are ready to step in.

Looking at what Giambi signed for I now, more than ever, wish they had gone that route.


Hypothesized?

Why? Even with what Giambi signed for, Tribe doesn't have that kind of money to spend on an unneeded position. Besides, in your scenario it makes more sense to start the year with Martinez at 1B and Shoppach behind the plate than sign the aging (and terrible defensively) Giambi to play 1B.
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Re: What now?

Postby dnosco » Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:44 am

Hermie13 wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:Anthony Castrovince made a good point in his blog mailbag the other day. He speculated that the likely reason they cut Aubrey instead of Marte is that Marte is the only Plan B the Indians have at 3B right now.

So, if the injury bug hits at 3B Marte would be the Indians only real cover option. However, the Garko gets injured they have Martinez who could step in at 1B (or DeRosa in a pinch with Carroll playing some 3B).

Castro basically was saying he doesn't think the Indians have a spot for Marte, but are keeping him for the time being incase the shit hits the fan.


As you said....Carroll is an option at 3B......as are Valbuena and Barfield (via a move of Peralta to 3B and AC to SS)......

I do agree though that only playing 1B is a big negative for Aubrey (and likely what kept him from being claimed by anyone).....


I really, REALLY think Carroll is NOT an option at any position. His role is to fill in for a game to give a guy a day off. Anything more than that actually hurts the team. I haven't done the research but I imagine Peralta is somewhat above average offensively for a SS and Cabrera is a little below average as an AL secondbaseman. Putting Carroll in that group of 3 means that your offense from those three positions is significantly below average without, in my opinion, nearly enough defense upside to make up that difference.

Not saying Marte is any answer at all offensively...just that the Indians have to keep their options open. Marte may still hit...Carroll, well, last year is the best you will ever get from that guy.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 13, 2009 11:53 am

dnosco wrote:I really, REALLY think Carroll is NOT an option at any position. His role is to fill in for a game to give a guy a day off. Anything more than that actually hurts the team. I haven't done the research but I imagine Peralta is somewhat above average offensively for a SS and Cabrera is a little below average as an AL secondbaseman. Putting Carroll in that group of 3 means that your offense from those three positions is significantly below average without, in my opinion, nearly enough defense upside to make up that difference.

Not saying Marte is any answer at all offensively...just that the Indians have to keep their options open. Marte may still hit...Carroll, well, last year is the best you will ever get from that guy.


Considering last year wasn't his best season, you're a little off base there.

Carroll did very well for the Tribe last year when he started after AC was sent down and Barfield got hurt. He's had some recent success as a starter as well (in 2006 hit .300 with a .377 OBP for Colorado). Last season he a very nice .355 OBP in 113 games as well. He's not a 162 option to start really, but filling for a few weeks or even a month if an injury arises is fine for him. He can handle it, and proved it last season. Doesn't have the power for 3B......but with Peralta's well above average power for a SS you could get away with it at 3B, at least for a month (again, NOT saying for a full season).
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Tue Jan 13, 2009 12:39 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:I hypothesized at the end of the 08 season that the Indians should trade Garko and look at signing a place holder like Giambi until the young guys (LaPorta/Mills etc) are ready to step in.

Looking at what Giambi signed for I now, more than ever, wish they had gone that route.


Hypothesized?

Why? Even with what Giambi signed for, Tribe doesn't have that kind of money to spend on an unneeded position. Besides, in your scenario it makes more sense to start the year with Martinez at 1B and Shoppach behind the plate than sign the aging (and terrible defensively) Giambi to play 1B.


My thought was based on the following: -

1. I don't like Garko
2. I thought Giambi would provide much better offense than Garko
3. I thought Giambi would sign cheap
4. Although Giambi is a poor defender, so is Benny Hill (Garko) - admitedly not as bad as Giambi.
5. I was working on the basis that the Indians were unlikely to sign a big $$ free agent and therefore incremental (i'd say at worst Giambi would be incrementally better, but more likely substantially) improvement at a position would be beneficial.
6. I assumed that Garko's trade value at a time he was making league minimum was close to his peak (like I said, I don't like Garko so I'm expecting his offense to stay pretty constant as his price goes up).

With that all considered I thought it would be a pretty good move to make. I'll leave it at that.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 13, 2009 12:56 pm

Giambi hit .247 last year....Garko hit .273.....Giambi did have a higher OBP, but only had 6 more RBIs than Garko. Also has battled injuries recently (Garko had a much better 2007 than Giambi as well). I can see why some people would want Giambi over Garko.....but he's not enough of an improvement IMO for the money it would have cost.


I don't understand the hate for Garko. He lacks the power you want from a 1B, but the guy still drives in runs. With the power we get from other spots where you don't expect to see power (C, SS, and CF), we can afford less from the 1B as long as he's a run producer, which Garko most definitely is.

There 2006, 2007, and 2008 stats:

Garko
2006: .292/.359/.470/.829 with 7 HRs, 45 RBIs, 28 runs, 12 doubles in 50 games & 185 at-bats
2007: .289/.359/.483/.842 with 21 HRs, 61 RBIs, 62 runs, 29 doubles in 138 games & 484 at-bats
2008: .273/.346/.404/.750 with 14 HRs, 90 RBIs, 61 runs, 21 doubles in 141 games & 495 at-bats

Giambi
2006: .253/.413/.558/.971 with 37 HRs, 113 RBIs, 92 runs, 25 doubles in 139 games & 446 at-bats
2007: .236/.356/.433/.789 with 14 HRs, 39 RBIs, 31 runs, 8 doubles in 83 games & 254 at-bats (spent time on DL)
2008: .247/.373/.502/.875 with 32 HRs, 96 RBIs, 68 runs, 19 doubles in 145 games & 458 at-bats


so yeah, Giambi has the better power numbers (though Giambi was helped by the short RF fence in NY)......but Garko holds his own in runs and RBIs (especially since Giambi's injuries)....and it wasn't like Giambi was in a little league lineup. He had guys like Rodriguez, Abreu, and Nady around him......Garko had Peralta and Shoppach.....

Garko IMO is now (in place of Peralta) the most underrated and under appreciated Indian......
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Tue Jan 13, 2009 1:11 pm

The thing I have issue with is the "he's a run producer" comment.

Is he?

Then why did he only drive in 61 runs in 2007 when he hit more HRs and doubles and had a higher BA, OBP, SLG, OPS?

What happened between 2007 and 2008 that turned Garko into a "run producer" - that phrase BTW is a typical example of old fashioned "Baseball Speak" if you ask me.... goes well with "Plays the game the right way".

I make judgements about hitters and whomever based on seeing them in person (well at least on tape) and by making judgements on their what I call "repeatable statistics". By which I mean the statistic that their own personal performance has the most effect on.

So, based on my seeing Garkos repeated "drop to one knee swing" and my judgement of his statistics I felt Giambi would be a much better option.

And this time, that's really all I have to say on the matter! haha
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