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Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:48 pm

ironmike wrote:Both Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley do an excellent job in drawing walks and maintaining decent BB-K ratios. All of the other Indian players really need to improve in this category. Improvement from within and from the new players we acquire should help the Indians improve this glaring weakness from the 2011 season.

This is the single most important factor in getting from the 80 win level to 88 and above.


Not true at all. His walk rate was the same as Jhonny Peralta's (6.9%) and barely better than AC's this year. In the minors Brantley did a good job of drawing walks, but it has not translated to the bigs. He absolutely MUST work at increasing his walk rate if he wants to be an everyday leadoff guy. Hell, Lou Marson has shown each of the last two years to be much better at drawing walks (nearly 9% each season).
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Edible14 » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:51 pm

ironmike wrote:Less K's, putting the ball in play and drawing more walks will lead to more runs.

Kotchman or Carlos Lee both would be great additions as far as a better K-BB ratio to improve our offense that scored two runs or less in 50 games. The Indians must continue to move forward with every team transaction in trying to repair this weakness.

Both Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley do an excellent job in drawing walks and maintaining decent BB-K ratios. All of the other Indian players really need to improve in this category. Improvement from within and from the new players we acquire should help the Indians improve this glaring weakness from the 2011 season.

This is the single most important factor in getting from the 80 win level to 88 and above.


The "productive out" thing is mostly overrated by non-statisticians. If the bases are empty, it doesn't matter how you commit your outs. Advancing the runner on a groundball or flyball out is actually kind-of rare with those outs, and is more than off-set by the fact that "just putting the ball in play" can lead to double play balls. That's my take on it, and it also seems to be the Indians' philosophy as well, considering that they've signed an awful lot of windmills in the past few years (Branyan, Orlando Cabrera, Kearns, etc.).
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby ironmike » Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:08 pm

Their records prove "windmills" really don't result into a winning or contending team. A huge flaw in the Mark Shapiro era.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:34 am

ironmike wrote:Their records prove "windmills" really don't result into a winning or contending team. A huge flaw in the Mark Shapiro era.


Indians hitters finished with the 2nd most strikeouts this year in the AL. 3rd most? That would be the Rays. Their solution? Get Pena who strikes out about a quarter of the time. 5th most K's? Tigers...6th? Yanks. Strikeouts weren't the biggest issue for the Tribe. Sure, would be nice to reduce that, but you can contend regardless of how much you strikeout as a team.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby ironmike » Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:45 am

Hermie, I'm not going to argue with you. BB-K ratio is the point. If you notice the Yankees BB-K ratio. Baseball is just that, "base - ball", which means get on base in order to score runs. Now if you want to find a poster to argue with you that fundamental point, good luck it ain't going to be me.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:10 am

ironmike wrote:Hermie, I'm not going to argue with you. BB-K ratio is the point. If you notice the Yankees BB-K ratio. Baseball is just that, "base - ball", which means get on base in order to score runs. Now if you want to find a poster to argue with you that fundamental point, good luck it ain't going to be me.


There are a lot more factors than BB-K rates. If you only use 1 stat (or really stats in general) to evaluate players then you will not win. I don't believe stats are worthless but there is a reason there is an old axiom "Stats are for losers". It's great to have guys get on base but a singles hitter with no speed isn't going to score many runs unless you have guys that can get extra base hits behind them. That's one reason why I'm not thrilled about Kotchman because he is neither a run scorer or run producer (I come to that conclusion with my own 2 eyes and not statistics). I like Kotchman's D and I believe it will save runs but I don't think his Off + Def = a good all around 1B.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:36 am

Just a couple of things while looking at Kotchman's career history:

Regression is coming -- Kotchman's career BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .280. His BABIP last year? .335, a .055 increase which helped balloon his batting average last year to a highly respectable .306. If we expect Kotchman to regress to his career mean, which I fully believe he will, one can expect his BA next year to look an awful lot like his career average of .268. Which isn't bad, but it isn't "big bopper" territory, either.

Extreme ground ball percentage -- I did some number crunching on all qualified 1B in baseball, and found that the average 1B hits ground balls at a 42.5% clip. Kotchman hits well above that at an alarming 55.3% career rate. The more ground balls hit = less potential to hit HRs/XBH. 1B is a power position, and Kotchman simply does not have that power potential in him.

Kotchman has had 2 full years of above average run creation: 2007, and last year. Those years he had a wRC+ of 120 and 125 (league average is an even 100), meaning he produced better than 20-25% of all 1B in baseball.

The years inbetween? 94, 90, 66, all below average.

One thing Kotchman has going for him is he has a average to plus glove, something no Indian 1B can claim.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:45 am

Magneticnorth451 wrote:Just a couple of things while looking at Kotchman's career history:

Regression is coming -- Kotchman's career BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .280. His BABIP last year? .335, a .055 increase which helped balloon his batting average last year to a highly respectable .306. If we expect Kotchman to regress to his career mean, which I fully believe he will, one can expect his BA next year to look an awful lot like his career average of .268. Which isn't bad, but it isn't "big bopper" territory, either.

Extreme ground ball percentage -- I did some number crunching on all qualified 1B in baseball, and found that the average 1B hits ground balls at a 42.5% clip. Kotchman hits well above that at an alarming 55.3% career rate. The more ground balls hit = less potential to hit HRs/XBH. 1B is a power position, and Kotchman simply does not have that power potential in him.

Kotchman has had 2 full years of above average run creation: 2007, and last year. Those years he had a wRC+ of 120 and 125 (league average is an even 100), meaning he produced better than 20-25% of all 1B in baseball.

The years inbetween? 94, 90, 66, all below average.

One thing Kotchman has going for him is he has a average to plus glove, something no Indian 1B can claim.


+1 That sums up my evaluation from see him play as well. I do think he has a better than average glove. But his overall contribution is below average for a 1B.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:50 am

daingean wrote:
ironmike wrote:Hermie, I'm not going to argue with you. BB-K ratio is the point. If you notice the Yankees BB-K ratio. Baseball is just that, "base - ball", which means get on base in order to score runs. Now if you want to find a poster to argue with you that fundamental point, good luck it ain't going to be me.


There are a lot more factors than BB-K rates. If you only use 1 stat (or really stats in general) to evaluate players then you will not win. I don't believe stats are worthless but there is a reason there is an old axiom "Stats are for losers". It's great to have guys get on base but a singles hitter with no speed isn't going to score many runs unless you have guys that can get extra base hits behind them. That's one reason why I'm not thrilled about Kotchman because he is neither a run scorer or run producer (I come to that conclusion with my own 2 eyes and not statistics). I like Kotchman's D and I believe it will save runs but I don't think his Off + Def = a good all around 1B.


Casey Kotchman followed two "2-Teen" years in limited action in 2009 & 2010, respectively, with his "break out" 2011 season where his season long BA soared to above .300. When you look more closely at his season, Casey Kotchman's results belie his successes. In the Rays last quarter of the 2011 season, about 42 games, Kotchman hit at his more usual rate of around .225 - .235, had three homers, 11 runs scored, 11 RBI's all coming in 7 games, and half his stolen bases, one, while his OPS took a serious nose dive, dropping over 80 points. The run production Kotchman achieved throughout his 500 AB's was very much Luis Valbuena-esque. In short, Kotchman is not the answer at first base.

The trade market for first baseman is clearly the only path remaining for the Indians as the Indians have arrived at the four week mark before Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training in Goodyear Arizona !..
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Jan 24, 2012 10:20 am

Kotchman's power potential was questioned back in his top prospect days. He has done nothing to prove scouts wrong in the majors. Some people here only like Kotchman because he hit over .300 last year, which doesn't mean a thing.

I don't see anyone here going nuts over Conor Jackson, who is very comparable offensively to Kotchman. I'd much rather start the season with LaPorta/Duncan at 1st instead of Kotchman.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Edible14 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 11:57 am

Magneticnorth451 wrote:Just a couple of things while looking at Kotchman's career history:

Regression is coming -- Kotchman's career BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .280. His BABIP last year? .335, a .055 increase which helped balloon his batting average last year to a highly respectable .306. If we expect Kotchman to regress to his career mean, which I fully believe he will, one can expect his BA next year to look an awful lot like his career average of .268. Which isn't bad, but it isn't "big bopper" territory, either.


It's an interesting claim, but most statisticians I've read don't use BABIP for hitters. It's more of a pitchers stat (same for BB/K ratio). As a rule, better hitters will have a better BABIP and worse hitters will have worse BABIP numbers (see: Valbuena and Adam Everett's BABIP for "bad", Pujols, Ichiro for "good"). Also, as it was noted upthread, there can be other explanatory reasons for Kotchman's improvement - his vision correction.

Not to say I'm a huge fan of Kotchman. I'd rather have Carlos Lee to be perfectly honest. Mostly, I'd prefer someone who could comfortably slot over to DH if and when Hafner is hurt and perhaps in the future. I still think he's likely and upgrade over LaPorta, though.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:19 pm

BABIP is a stat used for both pitching and hitting.

Here's Yahoo sports on BABIP as a hitting stat:

"How BABIP works for hitters: For hitters there is more variance in BABIP, though the mean is obviously the same. Extremely speedy hitters tend to have a higher BABIP, because they are capable of beating out infield hits, like Ichiro Suzuki(notes) and his career BABIP of .357. Hitters less fleet of foot tend to have lower BABIPs. Free swingers like Vladimir Guerrero(notes) and Matt Diaz(notes), who manage to sustain high batting averages despite a cheerful disregard for the strike zone, have sustained accordingly high BABIPs — .319 for Guerrero and .362 for Diaz.

Jimmy Rollins'(notes) awful 2009 was accompanied by a .245 BABIP, far off of his career .295 mark and the .303 BABIP he enjoyed during his 2007 MVP campaign.

What accounted for the decline?

For one thing, Rollins had fewer infield hits than ever before, just 10 in 2009 compared to 15 the previous year.

For another, he had the fewest walks in any full season in his career — and tied for the second-fewest HBP — which meant that most every time he strode to the plate, he was putting himself into a position to make more outs. Had Rollins drawn more walks, leaned into a few more pitches and dragged a few more infield singles, he would have had more hits in fewer at-bats and his average would have been closer to the .277 he hit in 2006 and 2008.

Rollins was unlucky in 2009, but he was also lucky in 2007, when he set personal bests in PA, AB, runs, hits, triples, homers, RBI, batting average, slugging, and OPS, en route to winning the MVP. Luck breaks both ways. BABIP isn't the reason he did poorly; it's just merely a measure of how poorly he did."

His corrected vision may explain how well he did last season, but unless he comes to Cleveland on the cheap, I'm not sure I would throw money his way.


EDIT:

Did a little reaserch on Fangraphs and came up with a nice visual as to how Kotchman may have been aided by an unsustainably high BABIP.

Here's Kotchman's AVG chart:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1930&position=1B&page=0&type=full

Notice that it was high for the majority of the year, and then fell off a cliff towards the end of the season.

Here's Kotchman's BABIP chart:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1930&position=1B&page=7&type=full

His BABIP was well above .350 for a good portion of the year, helping to sustain that high BA, and then took a nosedive towards the end of the year... which coincides with his Batting Average crash towards the end of last year, as well.

That last 1/3 of the season may be the "real" Kotchman, after all.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:20 pm

JP_Frost wrote:Kotchman's power potential was questioned back in his top prospect days. He has done nothing to prove scouts wrong in the majors. Some people here only like Kotchman because he hit over .300 last year, which doesn't mean a thing.

I don't see anyone here going nuts over Conor Jackson, who is very comparable offensively to Kotchman. I'd much rather start the season with LaPorta/Duncan at 1st instead of Kotchman.


While I can't speak for others, I personally could care less about his batting average..it's the .378 OBP that I like. Not the first time he's posted an OBP over .370 either (though first time in a while). Also posted a .354 OBP in Atlanta in 2009....though promptly became useless in Boston.

Kotchman is not high on my wish list but I'd take him over LaPorta/Duncan....depending on his price.

Tribe's interest in Kotchman should come as no surprise. They were interested in him last year. And they had been fans of Fukudome for a while before getting him...who was like the OF version of Kotchman.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:21 pm

Edible14 wrote:Not to say I'm a huge fan of Kotchman. I'd rather have Carlos Lee to be perfectly honest. Mostly, I'd prefer someone who could comfortably slot over to DH if and when Hafner is hurt and perhaps in the future. I still think he's likely and upgrade over LaPorta, though.


I'd prefer Lee too...but I'm not convinced he would accept a deal to Cleveland even if the Indians and Astros agreed on money compensation....hope I'm wrong though.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:27 pm

Edible14 wrote:
Not to say I'm a huge fan of Kotchman. I'd rather have Carlos Lee to be perfectly honest. Mostly, I'd prefer someone who could comfortably slot over to DH if and when Hafner is hurt and perhaps in the future. I still think he's likely and upgrade over LaPorta, though.


Upgrade yes.....at the price he will cost then NO. I'd rather save the $$$ and use LaPorta/Duncan with the attitude of using that $$$ to get a better piece in July (if we are not out of it by then).
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:31 pm

Magneticnorth451 wrote:BABIP is a stat used for both pitching and hitting.

Here's Yahoo sports on BABIP as a hitting stat:

"How BABIP works for hitters: For hitters there is more variance in BABIP, though the mean is obviously the same. Extremely speedy hitters tend to have a higher BABIP, because they are capable of beating out infield hits, like Ichiro Suzuki(notes) and his career BABIP of .357. Hitters less fleet of foot tend to have lower BABIPs. Free swingers like Vladimir Guerrero(notes) and Matt Diaz(notes), who manage to sustain high batting averages despite a cheerful disregard for the strike zone, have sustained accordingly high BABIPs — .319 for Guerrero and .362 for Diaz.

Jimmy Rollins'(notes) awful 2009 was accompanied by a .245 BABIP, far off of his career .295 mark and the .303 BABIP he enjoyed during his 2007 MVP campaign.

What accounted for the decline?

For one thing, Rollins had fewer infield hits than ever before, just 10 in 2009 compared to 15 the previous year.

For another, he had the fewest walks in any full season in his career — and tied for the second-fewest HBP — which meant that most every time he strode to the plate, he was putting himself into a position to make more outs. Had Rollins drawn more walks, leaned into a few more pitches and dragged a few more infield singles, he would have had more hits in fewer at-bats and his average would have been closer to the .277 he hit in 2006 and 2008.

Rollins was unlucky in 2009, but he was also lucky in 2007, when he set personal bests in PA, AB, runs, hits, triples, homers, RBI, batting average, slugging, and OPS, en route to winning the MVP. Luck breaks both ways. BABIP isn't the reason he did poorly; it's just merely a measure of how poorly he did."

His corrected vision may explain how well he did last season, but unless he comes to Cleveland on the cheap, I'm not sure I would throw money his way.


EDIT:

Did a little reaserch on Fangraphs and came up with a nice visual as to how Kotchman may have been aided by an unsustainably high BABIP.

Here's Kotchman's AVG chart:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1930&position=1B&page=0&type=full

Notice that it was high for the majority of the year, and then fell off a cliff towards the end of the season.

Here's Kotchman's BABIP chart:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1930&position=1B&page=7&type=full

His BABIP was well above .350 for a good portion of the year, helping to sustain that high BA, and then took a nosedive towards the end of the year... which coincides with his Batting Average crash towards the end of last year, as well.

That last 1/3 of the season may be the "real" Kotchman, after all.


I'd take that though....over the last 1/3 of the season (last 2 months) he hit .273/.370/.385/.755 with 6 HRs. His BABIP was .287 over that span. In 2009 when he was 'ok' he posted a similar .283 BABIP. I don't think it's crazy to think he could put up a .350 OBP easily in 2012. Definitely lacks power but he walks enough to be valuable. Think he'd make a solid 2-hole guy if they want to bat Kip lower in the order and use AC in the 3-hole again...
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:33 pm

daingean wrote:Upgrade yes.....at the price he will cost then NO. I'd rather save the $$$ and use LaPorta/Duncan with the attitude of using that $$$ to get a better piece in July (if we are not out of it by then).


The bold part of your quote is what worries me the most about the Indians seemingly standing pat.

There is talk about making a deadline deal, but what's stopping the Indians from getting off to a slow start and being 10 games back of Detroit by the All-star break? By that time it may be too late, and that half year rent-a-player potentially costs the Indians money and prospects.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:41 pm

Magneticnorth451 wrote:
daingean wrote:Upgrade yes.....at the price he will cost then NO. I'd rather save the $$$ and use LaPorta/Duncan with the attitude of using that $$$ to get a better piece in July (if we are not out of it by then).


The bold part of your quote is what worries me the most about the Indians seemingly standing pat.

There is talk about making a deadline deal, but what's stopping the Indians from getting off to a slow start and being 10 games back of Detroit by the All-star break? By that time it may be too late, and that half year rent-a-player potentially costs the Indians money and prospects.


That worries me too but I just don't think Kotchman will add much to this team. A whole year with Kotchman at 1B may get the Tribe 86 wins and with LaPorta/Duncan (basically in a similar role to last year) would be about 83 wins. I do believe the real difference in wins can come from Sizemore bouncing back and Kipnis & Santana really taking steps forward. BTW, I don't believe the 3 extra wins will come because of Kotchman's bat but more from his defense (mostly because I think his D is good enough to let Chiz play 3B - and Chiz offensively makes the team better but defensively we will need a better D first baseman.)
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Jan 24, 2012 3:53 pm

IMO, this series of blogs today on Kotchman has been one of the most interesting and informative that I have seen on this site in a long time. I have not been a big follower of Kotchman and spent less than 5 minutes looking at tape. Personally, I would not be excited about his acquistion but hardly suicidal either. There is much to be said for defensive improvement, particularly if Chisenhall wins the 3B battle. I would expect him to regress from his offensive performance of last year but that is not guaranteed. Just not sure he is an offensive upgrade over LaPorta except in the area of BB/K which is important to me. All in all, I would vote thumbs down on Kotchman and pursue Lee if he is willing to come to Cleveland. :pleasantry:
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:02 pm

Scratch Prince Fielder from the list.. looks like he's signing with the Detroit Tigers.. the AL Central just got a LOT tougher... wow..
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:04 pm

Prince Fielder to the Tigers......wow. in the back of my mind I thought this was possible....but didnt think they'd actually pull the trigger. 9 years reportedly too...
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby ironmike » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:16 pm

IMO, the Tigers signing of Fielder is just fine. The Indians will be forced to compete even more and that isn't all bad. If you want to win a championship you need to play against the very best competition day in and day out, match up and beat them. That's how players get better in a hurry. Fielder makes every one better in the Tigers line up. Now the Indians have to go out and match this move.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:16 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Prince Fielder to the Tigers......wow. in the back of my mind I thought this was possible....but didnt think they'd actually pull the trigger. 9 years reportedly too...


I'm surprised by this. Almost feels like a punch to the gut in a way at first thought is "how can we compete with that?". Oh well, the Tribe just needs to concentrate on getting better. I guess Cecil (who had his best years as a Tiger) had an influence.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:19 pm

ironmike wrote:IMO, the Tigers signing of Fielder is just fine. The Indians will be forced to compete even more and that isn't all bad. If you want to win a championship you need to play against the very best competition day in and day out, match up and beat them. That's how players get better in a hurry. Fielder makes every one better in the Tigers line up. Now the Indians have to go out and match this move.


Really dont see how the Tribe can go out and "match" this move. Not one close to Fielders talent on the market right now
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:21 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
ironmike wrote:IMO, the Tigers signing of Fielder is just fine. The Indians will be forced to compete even more and that isn't all bad. If you want to win a championship you need to play against the very best competition day in and day out, match up and beat them. That's how players get better in a hurry. Fielder makes every one better in the Tigers line up. Now the Indians have to go out and match this move.


Really dont see how the Tribe can go out and "match" this move. Not one close to Fielders talent on the market right now


You mean the Prince Fielder signing wasn't a response to the Indians signing Julio Lugo to a MiLB contract? <smh>
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:25 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Really dont see how the Tribe can go out and "match" this move. Not one close to Fielders talent on the market right now


Certainly with a lefty/righty combo of Cabrerra and Fielder the Tigers will not be easy to pitch to but pitching is the only area where the Tribe can match-up with the Tigers. Aside from Verlander, I'd take our staff any day. I think Valverde will come back to earth.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:26 pm

daingean wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
Really dont see how the Tribe can go out and "match" this move. Not one close to Fielders talent on the market right now


Certainly with a lefty/righty combo of Cabrerra and Fielder the Tigers will not be easy to pitch to but pitching is the only area where the Tribe can match-up with the Tigers. Aside from Verlander, I'd take our staff any day. I think Valverde will come back to earth.

+ 1 for optimism...

- 14 for depiction of the real world....
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:28 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
daingean wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
Really dont see how the Tribe can go out and "match" this move. Not one close to Fielders talent on the market right now


Certainly with a lefty/righty combo of Cabrerra and Fielder the Tigers will not be easy to pitch to but pitching is the only area where the Tribe can match-up with the Tigers. Aside from Verlander, I'd take our staff any day. I think Valverde will come back to earth.

+ 1 for optimism...

- 14 for depiction of the real world....


Did I say it would be enough? No.....Did I say it was our "only hope"? Yes.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby A.Zajac » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:30 pm

It's a good thing there will be another wild card slot now...

And the Indians compete by staying healthy. That's a HUGE priority.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:47 pm

Honestly, looking at this club I just don't see more than 86-88 wins right now. I would say Kotchman would add a cpl wins, and at this point while I had hoped the Tribe would add Carlos Pena, and he signed for less money money than he probably could've gotten to play back in TB it still leaves the Tribe without the much sought after bat :search: they had desired. I don't think it's wise just to stand put bc they didn't get a bat to add to the lineup. Teams are made up of many components, If you can't get the hitter you want go for a pitcher. I'd consider Roy Oswalt, but just don't see him signing here. I'd still go for Rich Harden, or maybe Jeff Francis. Neither would command much $$$ ($2/$3 mil. and / or incentives) in my opinon, the Tribe should optimize the roster by adding Kotchman and a pitcher like Harden if possible.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby A.Zajac » Tue Jan 24, 2012 6:34 pm

If I'm the Tribe, at this juncture, I don't sign anyone and I weather the storm. Then, come mid-season, explore trade opportunities for a first baseman. There's not a first baseman available left in free agency who will make a significant difference to this club. I'm not willing to overpay for one, nor am I willing to make a knee jerk reaction. Wait until mid-season and then see what you can muster up.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:07 pm

A.Zajac wrote:If I'm the Tribe, at this juncture, I don't sign anyone and I weather the storm. Then, come mid-season, explore trade opportunities for a first baseman. There's not a first baseman available left in free agency who will make a significant difference to this club. I'm not willing to overpay for one, nor am I willing to make a knee jerk reaction. Wait until mid-season and then see what you can muster up.


Agree to an extent. I am just not sold that Kotchman will end up signing for much at all, be it with the Tribe or elsewhere. He simply doesn't have much leverage with so few teams looking at 1Bs. Could DH but that limits his value as his defense is a sellign point at 1B. I mean, really how many teams really could say Kotchman is an upgrade at 1B besides Cleveland right now? Maybe the Orioles (have Chris Davis there it seems for the time being)? Suppose he could be an upgrade in Oakland, but they are looking to deal 1B/DH types it sounds like. Plus, they kind of have a Kotchman type in Daric Barton (all OBP, no power). Pirates? Have Garrett Jones and recently acquired Casey McGehee, though could argue Kotchman there I guess. Brewers are the only team that really jumps out at me, but sounds like they are way overbudget as is, plus could give Gamel one last look. Am I really missing a team? I think you could end up getting him for a bit more than Russell Branyan/Austin Kearns money.....
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:11 pm

A.Zajac wrote:If I'm the Tribe, at this juncture, I don't sign anyone and I weather the storm. Then, come mid-season, explore trade opportunities for a first baseman. There's not a first baseman available left in free agency who will make a significant difference to this club. I'm not willing to overpay for one, nor am I willing to make a knee jerk reaction. Wait until mid-season and then see what you can muster up.


While it's understandable to believe the Tigers have just about sewn up the AL Central with the acquisition of Prince Fielder, the games are played on the field.. There should be no change in the overall plan of the Indians to continue to improve the club so they can compete with anyone on any given day..

The mountain is just a bit steeper.. but not insurmountable.

The Indians have strengths in the pen, in the starting pitching staff and, when healthy, at the plate. The defense, specifically throwing the ball, has to take the steps to improve across the board. With health, this club can contend.. with luck and health.. they can be very good..
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby ironmike » Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:23 pm

Mr. Dolan said, we will acquire one big bat this off-season. I see no reason not to believe him. There is still plenty of time to make a trade.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby ACrank » Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:46 pm

Except what do the Indians have to trade? Pitching is a strength, but the Madsen signing for one year tells you what you need to know about the closer market, and i wonder what Perez or Sipp could bring. Starting pitching was a strength at least in numbers, but between injuries and visa problems suddenly that depth is disappearing. And Fielder went to a team who didn't have a first baseman to trade (even if they would deal within the division).
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:28 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:If I'm the Tribe, at this juncture, I don't sign anyone and I weather the storm. Then, come mid-season, explore trade opportunities for a first baseman. There's not a first baseman available left in free agency who will make a significant difference to this club. I'm not willing to overpay for one, nor am I willing to make a knee jerk reaction. Wait until mid-season and then see what you can muster up.


While it's understandable to believe the Tigers have just about sewn up the AL Central with the acquisition of Prince Fielder, the games are played on the field.. There should be no change in the overall plan of the Indians to continue to improve the club so they can compete with anyone on any given day..

The mountain is just a bit steeper.. but not insurmountable.

The Indians have strengths in the pen, in the starting pitching staff and, when healthy, at the plate. The defense, specifically throwing the ball, has to take the steps to improve across the board. With health, this club can contend.. with luck and health.. they can be very good..


I agree with Andrew and I don't think it really is considering the the Tiggers have sewn it up. I do recognize they are now the prohibitive favorite. I just don't see the Indians having the ammo to pull off a major acquisition and I don't think that the Kotchman will be of much value. If the Indians are going to compete they will have to remain healthy, get good pitching, and have breakout seasons by Santana/Kip/Chiz/LaPorta as well as rebound seasons from Choo and Sizemore (I'm not so optimistic on Hafner). I actually think that there is a better chance of LaPorta having that breakout season than for Kotchman to provide enough offense to justify signing him (and I am not a big LaPorta supporter - I hope he does well but hope doesn't lead to wins - performance does). That said, stand pat unless blown away by an offer and look to improve in July.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby ironmike » Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:50 pm

Weather the storm? We've been weathering ever since John Hart left. We need to contend in 2012 with winning the division the first priority. If we can't as a team have those goals, they they should join the International League. Lots of time yet to improve this club. Lots of possibilities. Good baseball people will get the job done.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby TheWord » Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:04 pm

I don't recall Dolan ever going on record as saying they'll acquire anything.

As for those hoping the mid-90s will return, call Randy Lerner and ask that he move the Browns to London. :biggrin:
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 1:10 pm

TheWord wrote:I don't recall Dolan ever going on record as saying they'll acquire anything.


Me neither. Did say he'd spend when the team was contending...but even then, never said he'd spend on free agents.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:01 pm

Since the wind was seemingly knocked out of our sails from the Prince Fielder signing, I'd like to get back on track with the only free agent who can make an impact now and down the road, Yoenis Cespedes.

It seems like MLB teams will be allowed to negotiate with him in the near future, and if the Indians really want to take a shot at him, I (with my military salary) would offer him 6/50.

The contract structure goes like this:

'12, '13: 4 million.
'14: 8 million.
'15: 10 million.
'16, '17: 12 million.

It's a reasonable amount of money from beginning to end, and if he becomes a 3 WAR CF/RF like some believe he is capable of, then his contract is an absolute bargain.

This deal makes sense for the Indians in a number of ways: 1, he'd replace Sizemore once he leaves for greener pastures, and 2, he can slide over to RF with Brantley in CF when Choo's time is up.

Yes, there is risk involved, but you can't always play it safe... but that's easy to say when it's not my money!!!
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:19 pm

Magneticnorth451 wrote:Since the wind was seemingly knocked out of our sails from the Prince Fielder signing, I'd like to get back on track with the only free agent who can make an impact now and down the road, Yoenis Cespedes.

It seems like MLB teams will be allowed to negotiate with him in the near future, and if the Indians really want to take a shot at him, I (with my military salary) would offer him 6/50.

The contract structure goes like this:

'12, '13: 4 million.
'14: 8 million.
'15: 10 million.
'16, '17: 12 million.

It's a reasonable amount of money from beginning to end, and if he becomes a 3 WAR CF/RF like some believe he is capable of, then his contract is an absolute bargain.

This deal makes sense for the Indians in a number of ways: 1, he'd replace Sizemore once he leaves for greener pastures, and 2, he can slide over to RF with Brantley in CF when Choo's time is up.

Yes, there is risk involved, but you can't always play it safe... but that's easy to say when it's not my money!!!


That's a lot of money for someone who hasn't faced ML pitching as yet. The Tribe in the past has been able to sign 1 or 2 guys long term (i.e. Hafner). I think it would be safer to select 1 or 2 guys on the current team to sign the Hafneresq contract to (it could even be someone they acquire in the future). I'd throw Masterson as the most likely right now with Santana, Kipnis, and Chiz in the mix later. Hopefully Ubaldo pitches well enough to be the guy. We do have a lack of high end OF prospects at the higher level of the minor leagues (hopefully guys like Myles, Washington et al begin to fill that void soon.)

Edit: Soler may be the better choice for the Tribe although not as close to ML ready but his price should be more reasonable.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby ACrank » Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:27 pm

Magneticnorth451 wrote:Since the wind was seemingly knocked out of our sails from the Prince Fielder signing, I'd like to get back on track with the only free agent who can make an impact now and down the road, Yoenis Cespedes.

It seems like MLB teams will be allowed to negotiate with him in the near future, and if the Indians really want to take a shot at him, I (with my military salary) would offer him 6/50.

The contract structure goes like this:

'12, '13: 4 million.
'14: 8 million.
'15: 10 million.
'16, '17: 12 million.

It's a reasonable amount of money from beginning to end, and if he becomes a 3 WAR CF/RF like some believe he is capable of, then his contract is an absolute bargain.

This deal makes sense for the Indians in a number of ways: 1, he'd replace Sizemore once he leaves for greener pastures, and 2, he can slide over to RF with Brantley in CF when Choo's time is up.

Yes, there is risk involved, but you can't always play it safe... but that's easy to say when it's not my money!!!


Read something that suggested some GMs look at him as a 1b candidate....
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:29 pm

daingean wrote:[That's a lot of money for someone who hasn't faced ML pitching as yet. The Tribe in the past has been able to sign 1 or 2 guys long term (i.e. Hafner). I think it would be safer to select 1 or 2 guys on the current team to sign the Hafneresq contract to (it could even be someone they acquire in the future). I'd throw Masterson as the most likely right now with Santana, Kipnis, and Chiz in the mix later. Hopefully Ubaldo pitches well enough to be the guy. We do have a lack of high end OF prospects at the higher level of the minor leagues (hopefully guys like Myles, Washington et al begin to fill that void soon.)

Edit: Soler may be the better choice for the Tribe although not as close to ML ready but his price should be more reasonable.


What you wrote in bold is part of what I was thinking. We have a dearth of OF talent in the minors, and perhaps Washington has the highest upside of them all, but won't be ready for the Majors until late '13 or 2014 at the earliest.

Soler is another good choice, but most of what I heard about him has him being a notch below Cespedes, and not nearly as ready. I won't be upset if the Tribe signed him, though.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:37 pm

ACrank wrote:Read something that suggested some GMs look at him as a 1b candidate....


That's certainly thinking outside the box, but a lot of his value seems to be coming from the fact he's a speedy CF (for now).

I envision Cespedes having a regular season line similar to what Santana had last year... and that's excellent for a CF, but not sure it translates quite as well as a 1B.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby daingean » Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:41 pm

Magneticnorth451 wrote:
daingean wrote:[That's a lot of money for someone who hasn't faced ML pitching as yet. The Tribe in the past has been able to sign 1 or 2 guys long term (i.e. Hafner). I think it would be safer to select 1 or 2 guys on the current team to sign the Hafneresq contract to (it could even be someone they acquire in the future). I'd throw Masterson as the most likely right now with Santana, Kipnis, and Chiz in the mix later. Hopefully Ubaldo pitches well enough to be the guy. We do have a lack of high end OF prospects at the higher level of the minor leagues (hopefully guys like Myles, Washington et al begin to fill that void soon.)

Edit: Soler may be the better choice for the Tribe although not as close to ML ready but his price should be more reasonable.


What you wrote in bold is part of what I was thinking. We have a dearth of OF talent in the minors, and perhaps Washington has the highest upside of them all, but won't be ready for the Majors until late '13 or 2014 at the earliest.

Soler is another good choice, but most of what I heard about him has him being a notch below Cespedes, and not nearly as ready. I won't be upset if the Tribe signed him, though.


I'm not against Yoenis but I think the contract offer is pretty steep for someone who has a questionable chance of success. Say we sign him and he turns out to be Alex Escobar (who I think is a good comp at this point based on where he was at when the Tribe acquired him). We got Escobar as the centerpiece of the Robbie Alomar deal and he was the Met's next can't miss prospect. NOTE: I am not predicting the same results as Escobar but that is a possibility. I just don't want to pay $32 million for an Alex Escobar (amount in the final 3 years of that proposed contract). I am not risk aversive but I do want to quantify my risks prior to making them.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:47 pm

The contract doesn't even need to be that steep. It depends on the bidding war, if there is one.

I've heard he could command anything from 30-50 million, so go 5/35, or 5/40... you can play with the money, but if you want to make a solid case to acquire him and control him for the longterm, then the offer has to blow the other offers out of the water.

Anyway, I've read that the Cubs are the frontrunners, with the Phillies in there somehwere. Indians have a slim chance, but it's nice to want things.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:55 pm

Magneticnorth451 wrote:
ACrank wrote:Read something that suggested some GMs look at him as a 1b candidate....


That's certainly thinking outside the box, but a lot of his value seems to be coming from the fact he's a speedy CF (for now).

I envision Cespedes having a regular season line similar to what Santana had last year... and that's excellent for a CF, but not sure it translates quite as well as a 1B.


FanGraphs projected Cespedes numbers for the 2012 season, if he were to start in the ML's at somewhere around .280/.320/.480.. They used some kind of hybrid on MLE's and limited Cuban baseball history to come to that conclusion. They finalized their projection by saying, they weren't certain of anything at this point. they further suggested that he would probably be projected around a 3 WAR as a CF'er. During Cespedes time in the DWL, Cespedes was able to get 7 hits and 10 K's in 35 AB's.. not bad for a guy who hasn't swung a bat in a competitive situation in about a year.. Certainly worth investigating.. but, as I've stated in previous posts.. his DWL hasn't improved his standing... and may lead to a contact that may not exceed the Aroldis Chapman contract, after all has been said and done..

We shall see..
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby GhostofTedCox » Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:47 pm

It looks like the Indians have renewed their interest in Roy Oswalt. I would assume this is due to the Fausto / Heredia affair. Nevertheless, I would be in favor of adding him. What's his name will wind up on the restricted list for most, or all of the season, and not paid. So why not do a 1-year contract with Oswalt? You gotta think if Masterson, Ubaldo, and Oswalt are your top 3, you'll have a better than average chance to win the game. Also, if we fall out of the race, it shouldn't be hard to move him to a contender.

It doesn't look like we can get anybody worth a big salary at 1B anyway.

BTW, did anybody notice that on the indians.com official depth chart; they have Santana listed as the starting 1B and Marson as the starting C? Maybe it's been that way. But I just noticed it.
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:17 am

GhostofTedCox wrote:BTW, did anybody notice that on the indians.com official depth chart; they have Santana listed as the starting 1B and Marson as the starting C? Maybe it's been that way. But I just noticed it.


I've had it that way on my site since the end of the season. :biggrin:
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Re: Player Acquisition Targets for 2012

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:42 am

For what it's worth, mlbdepthcharts.com has Santana starting at 1B and Marson behind the plate as well. I'm not a huge fan of Santana moving from behind the plate (yet), but does seem like a better bet than counting on LaPorta opening day, at least right now...
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