Off-Season Priorities

[jellis]

Geronimo, I disagree. Yes, save percentage is great for showing success now but it does not show overall effectiveness, dominance, nor help predict future issues or jumps in performance. The rate stats show that as well as a lot of the other advanced metrics. The Indians themselves believe that too, and trust me there is some concern with regard to his drop in performance this season. Night five alarm fire concern, but some concern nonetheless. He is a good closer, but hardly elite or dominating.

what do you mean tony, it is totally the most important stat, I mean jensen lewis is the best CL in baseball right?

[criznit2009]

Best thing about Perez as our closer... We have Pestano, Smith, Lee, Hagadone, Judy... Not saying I want to roll the dice but a trade of Perez, Carmona and Phelps or.... Could get you whatever bat you are after this off season. Perez is definitely one of the guys in baseball you would target as a sell high guy - the other team knows that too.

[GeronimoSon]

Just to clarify.. measure of dominance via statistical illustration has all the sabermatricians happy as a nerd with a new slide rule.. For a Closer, after save conversion percentage, next most important stats become, in any order WHIP, K/BB, BAA, Inherited Runners Scoring, then ERA.

TBH.. if you have a closer that converts nearly 90 % of his save opportunities.. SIGN THAT GUY to a long term contract. A team CAN WIN with him.

If you're all about measuring the nth degree of dominance of a reliever, answer the question: Why is the bullpen considered the most volatile and changeable part of a pitching staff???..(see 2008, 31/51 Save Conversion Percentage and the impetus to "blow it" and rebuild)

Chris Perez is and remains one of the better closers in the AL. He won't get traded.. not for a "piece" of something else for the 2012 season with some other guy being thrown into the fray as the Indians closer. 2012 is CP's ARB I season. While my crystal ball isn't quite as clear as it can be, it seems just as likely that he'll be here for the 2013 season or his ARB II season. After that, it's a coin flip. One thing is very clear, however, when you have an effective (read: save conversion percentage approaching 90% or higher) closer, the bullpen has a HUGE ADVANTAGE. It sets the roles of the other bullpen pitchers.. It shortens the game..

[dazindiansfanuk]

Just to clarify.. measure of dominance via statistical illustration has all the sabermatricians happy as a nerd with a new slide rule.. For a Closer, after save conversion percentage, next most important stats become, in any order WHIP, K/BB, BAA, Inherited Runners Scoring, then ERA.

I think where the disagreement is coming here GS is simply a case of current performance Vs future performance.

In Chris Perez's role on this team in 2011, yes the most important stat is his save percentage because that basically chronicles how well he's done his job this year.

As you said though, with bullpen volatility being what it is, where the rest of us are coming from is that we don't believe Chris Perez's 2011 save percentage is anywhere near as good a predictor for his performance beyond this year than the other advanced stats.

[GeronimoSon]

Just to clarify.. measure of dominance via statistical illustration has all the sabermatricians happy as a nerd with a new slide rule.. For a Closer, after save conversion percentage, next most important stats become, in any order WHIP, K/BB, BAA, Inherited Runners Scoring, then ERA.

I think where the disagreement is coming here GS is simply a case of current performance Vs future performance.

In Chris Perez's role on this team in 2011, yes the most important stat is his save percentage because that basically chronicles how well he's done his job this year.

As you said though, with bullpen volatility being what it is, where the rest of us are coming from is that we don't believe Chris Perez's 2011 save percentage is anywhere near as good a predictor for his performance beyond this year than the other advanced stats.

+1

Current performance has historically been the only measure for predicted future results..hence the incredible salary that truly elite closers are able to garner. CP is not an elite closer, he's just one of the better closers in the AL. His peripheral stats, reduction in K/BB ratio, as an example, portends a lowering of the potential prediction of continued success.

[Hermie13]

Geronimo, I disagree. Yes, save percentage is great for showing success now but it does not show overall effectiveness, dominance, nor help predict future issues or jumps in performance. The rate stats show that as well as a lot of the other advanced metrics. The Indians themselves believe that too, and trust me there is some concern with regard to his drop in performance this season. Night five alarm fire concern, but some concern nonetheless. He is a good closer, but hardly elite or dominating.

what do you mean tony, it is totally the most important stat, I mean jensen lewis is the best CL in baseball right?

ha, I was thinking the same thing. Don't think it's a stat you should ignore, but it can definitely be misleading. Perez is a solid closer who gets the job done typically....but very Wickman-like (circa 05).