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The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

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The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby GhostofTedCox » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:14 pm

I had to wait a day or so before I commented on the recent goings on here. This is a website and board devoted to the excruciating minutiae of Indians prospects. We realize that the only way the Indians can truly become competitive is to develop a strong and deep farm system, rather than buy free agents. So it is especially hard when the system is shook up so badly all in 1 week. It requires a complete change in thinking. A 180.

So strap yourself in. The time is now. The next wave of prospects, Santana, Brantly, Chiz, Kipnis, Carasco, Sipp, etc, are here. Many of them have been rushed, but for better or worse they are here now. The veterans on the team such as Hafner, ACab, CPerez, and Jimenez, all have the clock ticking. Most likely they will be gone by the 2014 season. And like in the circle of life, the next wave of prospects like Wolters, Aguilar, LRod could be about ready by then.

From now on, the FO must obtain veteran players, (some with marginal contracts), in order to make this happen. Yes, we need an OF, and ANOTHER bat. There are no ther position players in our system that are even close to being able to help this team. The good news is that we still have incredible pitching deapth to make trades. Next years Columbus SP will be better than some 2nd tier MLB clubs.

So we may not be done trading prospects in order to obtain the bats. Agree?

Note to any SABR people out there. Please let us know if there has ever been a MLB club with people names Ubaldo and Asdrubal. Oh, and Kosuke too. :s_wink
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby ironmike » Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:27 pm

Ted Cox ... agree. The number one reason we have a farm system is to support the ML club with call ups and trades. Hinted on another thread the Indians can't sign free agents, they seldom make a multiple player for player trade that involves all ML talent so they MUST trade from strength in their farm system. That is the one area they invest the most and can compete. Besides clearing this top level of pitching prospects will provide an opportunity for others now in the system or those coming to rise to the occasion.

The Indians will need to do the same this winter to overcome the lack of balance for their position players. The number on priority should ALWAYS be win at the ML level.

True we could not get McCutcheon, but we had sincere interest in Upton and Bourn which tells me this regime appreciates these type of athletic players and is a huge improvement over Wedge & Shapiro. It is refreshing to see the Indians now appreciates the "Kenny Lofton" types.

We have Jimenez for 2.5 years for sure. He'll be in his prime at the end of his contract if we can't retain him we trade him for prospects and start the cycle over. When you get a chance to get a front of the rotation starter you go get him. Winning at the ML level is best strategy. Selling "hope" this off season will now be much easier.

Now if Nick Johnson could get healthy he could help ... because this is by far the worst offensive Indians team I can ever remember. Great news they brought Donald up, should have been here before Valbeuna.

Fine job by Antonetti and his scouting staff getting Ubaldo. What he did took big balls.
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby Prosecutor » Mon Aug 01, 2011 8:02 pm

I think this increases the chances of picking up Carmona's option. Next year's rotation should be as strong as any in the league from top to bottom with Jimenez, Masterson, Carmona, Tomlin, and the winner of the Carrasco/Huff/Barnes/Gomez/McAllister free-for-all.

If Nick Johnson can take LaPorta's spot at first, so much the better. No right-handed pitcher in the league is going to want to face that lineup.

The more I see of Zeke Carrera the less I am worried that either the Tribe won't pick up Grady's option or he won't be able to play anywhere near his former level.

These next two years should be a lot of fun.
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:01 pm

Prosecutor wrote:I think this increases the chances of picking up Carmona's option. Next year's rotation should be as strong as any in the league from top to bottom with Jimenez, Masterson, Carmona, Tomlin, and the winner of the Carrasco/Huff/Barnes/Gomez/McAllister free-for-all.


Unless Carmona blows out his arm, his option will be picked up. I don't think many people realize this...but if the Tribe did for whatever reason decline Carmona's option, he actually is not a free agent.

Carmona did not have 5 full years of ML service time prior to this year, meaning he'll be shy of the 6 full years required to be a free agent. So if you decline his option, you have to either offer arbitration or non-tender him (thus making him a free agent)....but can't see the Tribe flat out cutting Carmona (again, unless he's very badly hurt). In arbitration he'd end up around what his option would be, so all you would do is eliminate the extra options he has....which wouldn't make much sense.
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby Prosecutor » Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:08 am

Thanks for clearing that up, Herm.

Right now Fausto is 5-11 with a 5.31 ERA. If he stays at that level of performance the rest of the year, do you think he gets $13 million in arby?
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:57 am

Prosecutor wrote:Thanks for clearing that up, Herm.

Right now Fausto is 5-11 with a 5.31 ERA. If he stays at that level of performance the rest of the year, do you think he gets $13 million in arby?


Fausto's options for the next three years (he's currently at $ 6.1 MM for the 2011 season) are valued at 2012 $ 7.0 MM, 2013 $ 9.0 MM and 2014 $ 12.0 MM.. all club options.. and affordable.. easy choice to pick up the option in 2012, slightly more difficult for 2013, and much more difficult for 2014.. imho..
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby GhostofTedCox » Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:35 am

GeronimoSon wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:Thanks for clearing that up, Herm.

Right now Fausto is 5-11 with a 5.31 ERA. If he stays at that level of performance the rest of the year, do you think he gets $13 million in arby?


Fausto's options for the next three years (he's currently at $ 6.1 MM for the 2011 season) are valued at 2012 $ 7.0 MM, 2013 $ 9.0 MM and 2014 $ 12.0 MM.. all club options.. and affordable.. easy choice to pick up the option in 2012, slightly more difficult for 2013, and much more difficult for 2014.. imho..


I think Carmona's contract plus potential makes him the most trade-able person this off season in order to get a RH bat. I don't expect this waiver period to be very productive.
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:30 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:Thanks for clearing that up, Herm.

Right now Fausto is 5-11 with a 5.31 ERA. If he stays at that level of performance the rest of the year, do you think he gets $13 million in arby?


Fausto's options for the next three years (he's currently at $ 6.1 MM for the 2011 season) are valued at 2012 $ 7.0 MM, 2013 $ 9.0 MM and 2014 $ 12.0 MM.. all club options.. and affordable.. easy choice to pick up the option in 2012, slightly more difficult for 2013, and much more difficult for 2014.. imho..


I think Carmona's contract plus potential makes him the most trade-able person this off season in order to get a RH bat. I don't expect this waiver period to be very productive.

Not sure I understand why the rush to trade Carmona but if he continues to pitch the way he has pitched in July, he would fetch some quality help. The way the organization is structured right now with pitching, he may not be the most trade-able person in the off season or even the most desireable to trade. I think I'll wait on this until after I see how the Indians do in August since I would not be surprised at a trade this month. :pleasantry:
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:38 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:
GhostofTedCox wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:Thanks for clearing that up, Herm.

Right now Fausto is 5-11 with a 5.31 ERA. If he stays at that level of performance the rest of the year, do you think he gets $13 million in arby?


Fausto's options for the next three years (he's currently at $ 6.1 MM for the 2011 season) are valued at 2012 $ 7.0 MM, 2013 $ 9.0 MM and 2014 $ 12.0 MM.. all club options.. and affordable.. easy choice to pick up the option in 2012, slightly more difficult for 2013, and much more difficult for 2014.. imho..


I think Carmona's contract plus potential makes him the most trade-able person this off season in order to get a RH bat. I don't expect this waiver period to be very productive.

Not sure I understand why the rush to trade Carmona but if he continues to pitch the way he has pitched in July, he would fetch some quality help. The way the organization is structured right now with pitching, he may not be the most trade-able person in the off season or even the most desireable to trade. I think I'll wait on this until after I see how the Indians do in August since I would not be surprised at a trade this month. :pleasantry:
It would be a HUGE SHOCK if Fausto is trade during the 2011 season. Absolutely shocking if that were to happen..
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby Bearcatbob » Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:44 am

One of the assets in the farm system that has no position that I can see is Cord Phelps who is a switch hitter.

IMO - it would an interesting move to convert him to an outfielder. Otherwise - how do we capitalize on his value.

I also note that Donald looks to me like he can handle a bat pretty well. I can see a possibility of Donald platooning with Chis until Chis proves he can hit lefties. Of all the guys who have been rushed to the majors, I think Chis is the least ready.

I see a team with a good two year run ahead. I also see the revenue that would result from that run will provide a means to keep that window open.

Bob
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:39 am

Bearcatbob wrote:One of the assets in the farm system that has no position that I can see is Cord Phelps who is a switch hitter.

IMO - it would an interesting move to convert him to an outfielder. Otherwise - how do we capitalize on his value.

I also note that Donald looks to me like he can handle a bat pretty well. I can see a possibility of Donald platooning with Chis until Chis proves he can hit lefties. Of all the guys who have been rushed to the majors, I think Chis is the least ready.

I see a team with a good two year run ahead. I also see the revenue that would result from that run will provide a means to keep that window open.

Bob
Cord Phelps has had a short stay at the ML level this season. As is the case with many young players making their first foray into the major leagues, he had his positive moments (walk off homer <== does it get any better!?!?!?) and had his weaknesses exposed. Cord has since gone back to the minors where he continues to work his butt off in preparation for another call up. He is and remains a valuable part of the Indians present and future. As far as playing some in the outfield: sure, any additional versatility he can bring will only improve his chances to stay in the major leagues..

Regarding revenue: the projected attendance for the 2011 season was in the 1.35-1.40 MM fans. As of now, the Indians are looking at 1.8-1.9 MM in attendance and possibly a bit higher as the pennant race moves into the final stretch. While the coffers aren't exactly overflowing with dollars, the Indians are moving in the right direction. The two year run you speak of looks pretty solid. IMHO, this is a three and one half year run that began in July of 2010.
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby Bearcatbob » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:41 pm

Regarding revenue: the projected attendance for the 2011 season was in the 1.35-1.40 MM fans. As of now, the Indians are looking at 1.8-1.9 MM in attendance and possibly a bit higher as the pennant race moves into the final stretch. While the coffers aren't exactly overflowing with dollars, the Indians are moving in the right direction.

A key question for me is pricing for next year. This year had a huge amount of discounting built in to attract fans with what was not looking like a contending team. Next year, I would assume that pricing will return to a more normal level which would certainly help revenues.

For instance, this year all bleacher seats are $10. Does anyone remember prior year pricing?
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Re: The window of opportunity in now wide OPEN

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:39 pm

Bearcatbob wrote:Regarding revenue: the projected attendance for the 2011 season was in the 1.35-1.40 MM fans. As of now, the Indians are looking at 1.8-1.9 MM in attendance and possibly a bit higher as the pennant race moves into the final stretch. While the coffers aren't exactly overflowing with dollars, the Indians are moving in the right direction.

A key question for me is pricing for next year. This year had a huge amount of discounting built in to attract fans with what was not looking like a contending team. Next year, I would assume that pricing will return to a more normal level which would certainly help revenues.

For instance, this year all bleacher seats are $10. Does anyone remember prior year pricing?


The Indians entered the 2011 season with an average $ 18.49 per ticket price tag or a % 16.4 % reduction in per ticket price reduction. Adding addition items such as parking program adult beverage.. yada yada and the family of cost index to attend any game sitting in any seat for any opponent came to $ 170.96 or a -5.3% over 2011. With a projected increase from 1.4 MM fans to 1.85MM fans or 32.41 % increase of fans paying 94.7% of the previous year's Family cost to attend the game.. the Indians will gain nearly $ 19.2 MM above their projected 2011 budget to start the season. In other words.. the discounting has a positive effect on attendance..winning has a bigger effect on attendance.
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