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2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Basemen

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Basemen

Postby osueddy » Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:57 am

I'll be posting over the next week a report ranking the Indians prospects at each position and an overall report on the position. I'll be using the same rules as Tony concerning eligibility for prospects (50 IP, 130 AB, and played stateside). The age next to the players name is for next season using the July 1 cut-off date.

Third Basemen Not Eligible: Jayson Nix, Jack Hannahan

Prospect Ranking (Third Basemen):
1.) Lonnie Chisenhall (22)
2.) Kyle Bellows (22)
3.) Giovanny Urshela (19)
4.) Jared Goedert (26)
5.) Hunter Jones (19)

Though the position is a mess at the Major League level with the trades of Casey Blake and Jhonny Perlata and the failure of Andy Marte, the future is bright at the minor league level. Former first round pick Lonnie Chisenhall has risen to the top of almost everyone's prospect list and the Indians are counting on a long and successful career from him. Chisenhall will be in Columbus to start the year, and if the Indians are somehow making a run in the summer, maybe he'll get the call. If they are struggling again, we'll have to wait until September to see Chisenhall. Kyle Bellows solid season last year at Kinston has him set to replace Chisenhall at Akron. Everyone raves about his defense as he only made 8 errors at 119 games for Kinston at third. Urshela has shown a good bat at each stop so far and it will be exciting to see how he does at Lake County this season as a 19 year old. Jared Goedert exploded last season with 27 HR's and 83 rbi's, but he hasn't put up a consistent season like that throughout his career. With Chisenhall at third in Columbus, I think Goedert has a shot to be a backup on the Indians roster to start the season. I've got Hunter Jones ranked 5th at third base because he did play seven of his eight games last season for the AZL team at third. I'm not sure what the Indians future plans for him will be, but with the depth at third ahead of him, they may decide to play him somewhere else.

Didn't Make the Cut:
Adam Abraham (24)
Juan Romero (18)

Future Prospects From the DSL Team:
Leonardo Castillo (18): .269-0-16 last year as a 17 year old for the DSL team. He played the bulk of the games third base with Erik Gonzalez playing the rest. He made 19 errors in 58 at games at third, so I don't imagine that he'll be playing stateside this season.

Orgizational Report:
Cleveland - Nix / Goedert
Columbus - Chisenhall
Akron - Bellows
Kinston - Abraham
Lake County - Urshela
Extended Spring Training - Jones / Romero
Cut? - Hannahan

I know that no one is real excited about Jayson Nix being our third basemen, but he is going to be starting for Cleveland in April. I know that he is not amazing, but the Indians leadership has made the decision that they'll get more out of Nix than they would have gotten out of Andy Marte, and I can't say that I don't agree with them. I think Jared Goedert can make the Indians as a corner infield backup and he may be able to push Nix for playing time. I think the Indians would be willing to let him sit on the bench for extended periods of time rather than Cord Phelps.

If the Indians are battling for first in June/July and Chisenhall is tearing up the International League, then we may get an early glimpse of Lonnie. If not, then he'll make an appearance in September and then hopefully never leave the Indians infield for the next 10+ years. Of all of the Tribe prospects, the Indians really need him to pan out for their plans to succeed.

If Chisenahall ends being the top prospect we hope that he will be, then Kyle Bellows will just be working on his development at Akron with no pressure. Bellows could be a nice fall-back option of Chisenhall doesn't succeed, or he could be trade-bait in 2012 if the Indians are making a playoff run.

Adam Abraham saved his career in the 2nd half of the season last year at Lake County. With no one else really ready to play third at Kinston, Abraham will get his chance to stay ahead of Urshela in the third base depth chart. I don't see Bellows, Abraham, or Urshela moving from the teams they start the season with this year. What's nice about third base is that each of the players on a full season team essentially have the position to themselves. Barring injury they should all get to play 130+ games at the hot corner.

As questionable as third base is at the top, the Indians have a top prospect (Chisenhall), a solid prospect (Bellows), and a young promising prospect (Urshela). That's the kind of organizational balance that the Indians would like to see at every position.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 12:10 pm

I see you included Hunter Jones as a 3B prospect. Did you hear of another position switch for him?? I recall it was announced that he was being moved to the OF.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby osueddy » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:00 pm

MadThinker88 wrote:I see you included Hunter Jones as a 3B prospect. Did you hear of another position switch for him?? I recall it was announced that he was being moved to the OF.


I had not heard that, but I wouldn't doubt it. I was just basing the positions mostly on what they played last season.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby daingean » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:37 pm

I haven't been this excited by an Indians 3B prospect since Thome had a breakout season at Burlington. I think Chisenhall will have a good career at 3B and a fixture at the 2 hole (maybe 3 hole) for the Indians for years.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby artgold » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:47 pm

daingean wrote:I haven't been this excited by an Indians 3B prospect since Thome had a breakout season at Burlington. I think Chisenhall will have a good career at 3B and a fixture at the 2 hole (maybe 3 hole) for the Indians for years.


Hopefully, but I'm a little more reluctant to put much faith in Chisenhall being any better than OK in the majors.

I realize that each player has their own skills and development slopes, but consider this comparison of Akron performance for a moment:

Peralta - age 20 .281/.343/.457 with 15 HRs
Chisenhall - age 21 .278/.351/.450 with 17 HRs

Chisenhall had a slightly lower strikeout rate, but their stats were remarkably similar, and Peralta was a year younger than Chisenhall when playing at Akron.

Just trying to keep some perspective here.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby indianinkslinger » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:47 pm

artgold wrote:
daingean wrote:I haven't been this excited by an Indians 3B prospect since Thome had a breakout season at Burlington. I think Chisenhall will have a good career at 3B and a fixture at the 2 hole (maybe 3 hole) for the Indians for years.


Hopefully, but I'm a little more reluctant to put much faith in Chisenhall being any better than OK in the majors.

I realize that each player has their own skills and development slopes, but consider this comparison of Akron performance for a moment:

Peralta - age 20 .281/.343/.457 with 15 HRs
Chisenhall - age 21 .278/.351/.450 with 17 HRs

Chisenhall had a slightly lower strikeout rate, but their stats were remarkably similar, and Peralta was a year younger than Chisenhall when playing at Akron.

Just trying to keep some perspective here.

In the interest of perspective, you might have included the 2nd half stats when Chisenhall was healthy. Even though Peralta was a notoriously slow starter and usually a big finisher, Chisenhall's stats in the 2nd half were far superior, especially in HRs. Although Peralta was a year younger, his physical development at the time was more advanced than Chisenhall now. Just trying to keep the apples sorted. :pleasantry:
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby artgold » Sat Jan 01, 2011 4:12 pm

Actually Inky, Chisenhall had a good month of August, otherwise his performance was pretty consistent when healthy. Since the Peralta monthly data isn't available, it would be statistically invalid to compare a single month of one player (and extrapolate that to be representative of their potential) against the full season of another player.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby GeronimoSon » Sat Jan 01, 2011 8:24 pm

artgold wrote:Actually Inky, Chisenhall had a good month of August, otherwise his performance was pretty consistent when healthy. Since the Peralta monthly data isn't available, it would be statistically invalid to compare a single month of one player (and extrapolate that to be representative of their potential) against the full season of another player.

If Peralta's monthly data after coming to the majors for his april and mays are considered, i.e. instead of apples to apples, getting fruit salad, then you can see where Peralta's slow starts get their reputation. He earned it !! Comparing Peralta from over a half decade's worth of data is interesting enough, but we know that instead of having Jhonny P's early season starts, we may see Chisenhall HAVE a damn sight better beginning than what Jhonny P delivered.. that's "when" Mr Chisenhall or Mr Phelps arrives.. at least we hope so...

It would be rather nice to see Mr Chisenhall or even Cord Phelps.. make the Indians front office decision as to who starts at 3B to start the 2011 Indians season as tough as possible. Thing is, Jason Nix has not impressed anyone during this off season.. maybe he's pacing himself... Now only 44 days away from Pitchers and Catcher's reporting date...
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby indianinkslinger » Sun Jan 02, 2011 5:40 am

Actually Art, Chisenhall hit .294/.364/.505/.870 after the all star game, not a statistically insignificant month. Peralta's numbers don't look quite that good but he was a few months younger at the time though not the year difference in age you implied. Surprised you cannot find Peralta's stats for his time in Akron.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby Rocky55 » Sun Jan 02, 2011 12:28 pm

Chiz had interesting year.

In April, 19 games, .325/.393/.388/.781. Making great contact(8BB/10K) but I remember concern over the Slg.

Injured in May, in 12 games, .196/.283/.283/.566.

It looks like in June that he decided, or someone decided for him, that he needed to start driving the ball more as he went, in 26 games: .272/.333/.485/.819 with 11XBH, 9BB/18K.

in July, 25 games: .267/.330/.465/.796, remarkably cosistent with the previous month.

August explosion, in 29 games: .296/.378/.528/.906. He had 13XBH, with a very good 15BB/25K.

That's the Chiz we're all hoping to see translate into MLB. That's why lots of us have him ranked the #1 spec. He's still quite young, should get stronger as he matures. I've read quotes from his coaches about how hard he works on all aspects, not just the hitting.

It looks like we're developing an all-around good player and it wouldn't bother me if he spent the whole year in Cbus.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby artgold » Sun Jan 02, 2011 4:32 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:Actually Art, Chisenhall hit .294/.364/.505/.870 after the all star game, not a statistically insignificant month. Peralta's numbers don't look quite that good but he was a few months younger at the time though not the year difference in age you implied. Surprised you cannot find Peralta's stats for his time in Akron.


As Rocky so well demonstrated, my comment that his "plus" performance was due to a "plus" August, the remainder of the season he was pretty consistent and ordinary.

Regarding historical minor league stats, if you know of any site that provides historical minor league splits data feel free to provide the link. I haven't seen any in my cruising around the internet.

Meanwhile, I have hope for Chisenhall too, and had him ranked 3rd among the Indians minor league prospects. However, like I stated in my earlier posting, I wanted to add some perspective relative to his batting potential. I repeatedly see stuff that indicates he may be a "franchise savior" type of ballplayer, and while that would certainly be nice I haven't seen performance that supports this sentiment.

Rather, so far I see hitting performance that looks like it should be similar to Casey Blake's (.264/.336/.445, with 23 HRs in an average year). Nothing wrong with that, but this is more of what I consider to be his hitting potential.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby osueddy » Sun Jan 02, 2011 4:53 pm

artgold wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:Actually Art, Chisenhall hit .294/.364/.505/.870 after the all star game, not a statistically insignificant month. Peralta's numbers don't look quite that good but he was a few months younger at the time though not the year difference in age you implied. Surprised you cannot find Peralta's stats for his time in Akron.


As Rocky so well demonstrated, my comment that his "plus" performance was due to a "plus" August, the remainder of the season he was pretty consistent and ordinary.

Regarding historical minor league stats, if you know of any site that provides historical minor league splits data feel free to provide the link. I haven't seen any in my cruising around the internet.

Meanwhile, I have hope for Chisenhall too, and had him ranked 3rd among the Indians minor league prospects. However, like I stated in my earlier posting, I wanted to add some perspective relative to his batting potential. I repeatedly see stuff that indicates he may be a "franchise savior" type of ballplayer, and while that would certainly be nice I haven't seen performance that supports this sentiment.

Rather, so far I see hitting performance that looks like it should be similar to Casey Blake's (.264/.336/.445, with 23 HRs in an average year). Nothing wrong with that, but this is more of what I consider to be his hitting potential.


I'm not sure he'll be a "franchise savior," but the Indians need him to be more than Casey Blake if they want to be successful.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby artgold » Mon Jan 03, 2011 12:18 am

osueddy wrote:
artgold wrote:Meanwhile, I have hope for Chisenhall too, and had him ranked 3rd among the Indians minor league prospects. However, like I stated in my earlier posting, I wanted to add some perspective relative to his batting potential. I repeatedly see stuff that indicates he may be a "franchise savior" type of ballplayer, and while that would certainly be nice I haven't seen performance that supports this sentiment.

Rather, so far I see hitting performance that looks like it should be similar to Casey Blake's (.264/.336/.445, with 23 HRs in an average year). Nothing wrong with that, but this is more of what I consider to be his hitting potential.


I'm not sure he'll be a "franchise savior," but the Indians need him to be more than Casey Blake if they want to be successful.


Maybe, but a Blake type of offensive performance with decent defense at 3rd would be helpful on a good overall team. BTW, I enjoyed reading your write ups here, interesting points of view you bring to the discussion.

Speaking of Casey Blake though, if you look at the up and down minor league performance of Goedert so far, it is somewhat similar to what Casey did when in the minors. Kind of makes you wonder if he'll consolidate his abilities, and continued health, and be a decent late bloomer in the majors.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby daingean » Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:37 am

osueddy wrote:
artgold wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:Actually Art, Chisenhall hit .294/.364/.505/.870 after the all star game, not a statistically insignificant month. Peralta's numbers don't look quite that good but he was a few months younger at the time though not the year difference in age you implied. Surprised you cannot find Peralta's stats for his time in Akron.


As Rocky so well demonstrated, my comment that his "plus" performance was due to a "plus" August, the remainder of the season he was pretty consistent and ordinary.

Regarding historical minor league stats, if you know of any site that provides historical minor league splits data feel free to provide the link. I haven't seen any in my cruising around the internet.

Meanwhile, I have hope for Chisenhall too, and had him ranked 3rd among the Indians minor league prospects. However, like I stated in my earlier posting, I wanted to add some perspective relative to his batting potential. I repeatedly see stuff that indicates he may be a "franchise savior" type of ballplayer, and while that would certainly be nice I haven't seen performance that supports this sentiment.

Rather, so far I see hitting performance that looks like it should be similar to Casey Blake's (.264/.336/.445, with 23 HRs in an average year). Nothing wrong with that, but this is more of what I consider to be his hitting potential.


I'm not sure he'll be a "franchise savior," but the Indians need him to be more than Casey Blake if they want to be successful.


I don't see Chis as a "franchise savior" either. I do see him as a guy that could play good 3B and provide .300 - .330 BA with 15-25 HR pop. With his swing I think this is doable for him. I see him hitting in the 2 hole after he settles in with the Tribe.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Jan 03, 2011 10:01 am

...see him as a guy that could play good 3B and provide .300 - .330 BA with 15-25 HR pop...
These kinds of stats would put Chiz in the highest level or elite class of MLB... More realistic numbers may be .260-.270/.330/.380 with 12-18 HR's and 65-85 RBI's. These numbers are more representative of what may be in store for him..
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby Rocky55 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:28 am

Since this is the Chiz prediction thread:

Career Avg Yr: .285/.355/.455/.810, 38 doubles, 22HR, 165 hits.

I'd expect a few peak years at close to a .900 OPS with 185-200 hits.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby artgold » Mon Jan 03, 2011 12:16 pm

Rocky55 wrote:Since this is the Chiz prediction thread:

Career Avg Yr: .285/.355/.455/.810, 38 doubles, 22HR, 165 hits.

I'd expect a few peak years at close to a .900 OPS with 185-200 hits.


Predicting is a bit tough, because we don't know the type of era in which he'll be playing. Last season, the AL had an average of 4.45 team runs per game, and finally fell back to slightly below 1 team HR per game. These are typical of the type of numbers we'd see in the 1980's, and quite a bit less than what existed in the 1994-2009 period, when run scoring and HR rates were significantly higher than what we saw last year.

If last year was typical of how offense would look over the next decade or so (and I hope it is, meanng the steroid crap is over), then a batting line like you show above should be close to an all star type of player. I think your prediction is possible for Chisenhall, however my prediction would be about 10-15 points lower in BA and OBP.

Since this is a 3rd base thread though I'll also toss in here that I think Goedert may turn into a .250/.310/.430 type of hitter in the majors, though I'm not really certain where he'd end up defensively.
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Re: 2011 Indians Organizational Ranking and Report - 3rd Bas

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:25 am

MadThinker88 wrote:I see you included Hunter Jones as a 3B prospect. Did you hear of another position switch for him?? I recall it was announced that he was being moved to the OF.


They expertimented with him a little in the outfield in Instructs, but he still mostly played third base. They may still toy with the switch in ST and EST next year, but he will likely play 3B in 2011 with possibly a few games in the OF.
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