Indians Prospect Insider - Covering the Cleveland Indians from the Minors to the Big Leagues

2014 MLB Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu May 08, 2014 10:53 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:A cpl other interesting players could slide bc of injury. Might be a cpl value buys for the Tribe..

Luis Ortiz - RHSP Cal. HS (elbow soreness) velo has been down from 92-95
Zech Lemond - RHSP Rice (elbow soreness / irritation)
Derek Fisher - OF U of Va. (Broken hamate - has since returned)

I'd really like to see the Tribe take a gamble IF Hoffman is there, if he's not than one of those three at some point later.

I like all of those guys Home. Fisher is batting .322 with 2 HR & 3 doubles in his 7 post-injury games. The swing remains a thing of beauty. I haven't seen any updates on Ortiz or Lemond. both talented guys but I wouldn't want to draft three guys needing TJ surgery in the same draft. Not that you were suggesting that. :razz
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 08, 2014 11:13 am

Ortiz is back pitching, last I knew his velo was touching 90-92, not the 92-95 prior to injury, obvious he is either pitching through the injury or is knocking the rust off. Haven't heard an update on him or Lemond yet. Btw, Erick Fedde and another notable arm (can't remember) missed this past weekend with injury concerns.

Certainly wouldn't want three guys with the need for TJ, unless they were later round "draft & follow" types, guys they could stash and let heal, and then bring back.

I have no problem with them going after Hoffman at 21, Fisher / Ortiz at 31 / 38 or Lemond at 97 IF that's the only damaged goods they are picking in the top 5-10 rds. It will be interesting to see what the Tribe does, if Hoffman is there, I'd guess he might demand overslot money. Picking Hoffman at 21 and a cpl senior signs like Stinnett, and Allen could compensate at the same time landing some quick moving talent.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat May 10, 2014 1:38 pm

Erick Fedde to have TJ according to some reports. He's was projected as a top 10 pk in a few mock drafts.

Real possibility that one of Hoffman or Fedde is there, small possibility that both are there at 21. It would be nice if the tribe had their pk between the two. I'd be happy with either one (prefer Hoffman) but doubtful several teams like the Jays and Royals seem willing to gamble to land an upper tier arm.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 13, 2014 6:47 pm

Here's a decent top 150 rundown courtesy of BR...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2061 ... teamstream
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu May 15, 2014 12:36 am

PG had a prospect report on Garrett Fulenchek, a HS RHP from Texas. He's 6'3" & 205, throws a hard sinking FB which touches 96, a true slider with late break in the low to mid 80's from the same slot, and a developing change. Some vid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r4SZGNahcs

Looks good. PG projects Round 1S-2.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 15, 2014 10:01 am

BA's top 100 prospects...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ ... ects-list/

Hoffman, Fedde still top 10 talents.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 15, 2014 4:40 pm

Draft order, other info courtesy of BA...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2014-draft-order/
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 15, 2014 4:45 pm

Signing bonus allotments per team...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2014-draft-order/
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 15, 2014 4:48 pm

Here is the pk by pk breakdown rds 1-10...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/20 ... 10-rounds/
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 15, 2014 4:51 pm

The Indians will have the 8th largest spending pool for the June 5-7 MLB draft, per BA...$8,234,100 allotted to them. Here's how the slot total breaks down per pk rds 1-10...

Rd 1 pk 21 = $2,008,100
Rd 1 pk 31 = $1,733,000 (Jimenez compensation pk)
Rd 1 pk 38 = $1,495,400 (competitive balance pk)
Rd 2 pk 61 = $928,700
Rd 3 pk 97 = $539,600
Rd 4 pk 128 = $400,200
Rd 5 pk 158 = $299,600
Rd 6 pk 188 = $224,300
Rd 7 pk 218 = $168,200
Rd 8 pk 248 = $154,800
Rd 9 pk 278 = $144,600
Rd 10 pk 308 = $137,600

(5 top 100 pks and 3 top 40 pks).
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Fri May 16, 2014 10:24 am

The closer we get to the draft, the more I want the Indians to draft LHP Mac Marhsall. You know how much of a College-first guy I am normally, so for me to pimp a HS kid, take note :lol

It's really rare to find HS arms who throw good changeups. You don't have to hope for him to develop it down the road to become more than just a thrower, it's already there. Marhsall represents high upside to dream on combined with a high floor at a very young age. I guess he will ask for 1.2 to 2mil to sign. I would draft him as high as 21 if he agrees to sign underslot (less than 2mil) or at 38 if he wants slot money (1.5mil).

I'd really like 6 (or more) of the following prospects:

Pitchers:
LHP M.Marshall
LHP J.Sheffield
LHP F.Griffin
LHP Sands
LHP Imhof
LHP A.Suarez
LHP J.Fry
LHP Holmes(-Wetzler)
LHP Gomber
LHP A.Brown
RHP Weaver
RHP Z.Lemond
RHP McKinney
RHP Weisenberg
RHP C.Johnson
RHP Cease
RHP Castellani
RHP D.Gossett
RHP Stinnett
RHP Ruxer

Bats:
C/1B Schwarber
1B AJ Reed
1B Gillaspie
1B/3B Travis
1B B.Bradley
OF Papi
OF Davdison
2B F.Wall
C/OF Vallot

How about:

21 RHP Weaver
31 OF Davidson
38 LHP M.Marshall
61+97 1 of S.Travis/Papi/Wall/Vallot/Bradley + 1 of RHP Stinnett/Gossett/Weisenberg/McKinney/Lemond/C.Johnson/Cease
128 1 of Gomber/Ruxer/Holmes/Suarez/Fry/Sands
158 whoever fell + RHP Castellani, LHP A.Brown
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 16, 2014 12:17 pm

Here's BA's most recent mock draft...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/20 ... draft-2-0/

Big fan of the Tribes first pk.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 16, 2014 12:32 pm

Tondo,

Has your account been hacked? :)

You want a HS arm??? That's very unusual for you, seems we have done a flip bc I would like to see a college arm heavy draft at the top. I really like the upside with this college class, unusually talented, IMO. A cpl big time injured arms could really set the Tribe up for a solid draft if they gamble on one.

I'd like to see something like...

1.21 Jeff Hoffman or Erick Fedde
1.31 Luke Weaver
1.38 Matt Imhof
2.61 Chris Ellis
3.97 Jake Cosart
4.128 Brent Graves
5.158 Jordan Foley
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby PEngle39 » Sun May 18, 2014 1:13 am

Heard the Indians like Medeiros a lot.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Sun May 18, 2014 1:46 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Tondo,

Has your account been hacked? :)

You want a HS arm???


Shocking, I know :wink

It's not that I don't like the College players in this class, I still do. I absolutely want one bat of Reed, Gillaspie or Travis and I am a big Andrew Suarez and Morales fan. My main concern with HS arms (and pitchers in general) normally is lack of offspeed polish and lack of control. Some mistake that as projectability or upside, but that's an optimistic way of saying that the spec is still far away. Mac Marshall has both though, so what's not to like? He already throws a MLB average fastball and has two offspeed pitches that are even better. That's why I like him, C.Johnson, J.Sheffield, McKinney and Weisenberg the most out of the HS arms. There's a good mix of polish, control and upside. Some pitcher like Cederoth who throws hard with little else to go on, does nothing for me. Think Hagadone vs Tomlin

That's also the reason I am on the fence with specs like S.Adams or Medeiros. I like them enough to not hate the pick, if the Indians select them, but control is an issue with both.

That said, in this new budget era draft, it all comes down to what specs, especially HS, demand and where they are picked and if they are over or under slot to maximize the value of the entire draft class. So, if Marshall demands 2mil and Weisenberg only 1mil, I'd probably take the latter especially at pick 38 or 61. Of course, you could draft Marshall for 2mil at 21 and Weisenberg at 38 or 61, even coming out under slot overall. That's also why I am not a big fan of going over slot on some TJ arm falling to 21. They won't pitch in the Minors until 2016 and 23yo. If Hoffman or Fedde comes at slot value or even below, then that's an ok gamble with 5 top100 picks, but if that selection compromises the following picks financially, then I would not like it.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun May 18, 2014 2:30 pm

Yeah, I see your point on Hoffman and Fedde. I think Hoffmans upside sets him apart from Fedde. Hoffman is potentially FOR arm, and he likely won't see the mound until June next yr plus he's 21 /22 next yr. He's obviously a gamble but worth it if he develops into at least a number 2, IMHO. Fedde was potentially a top 10 pk, he's not the same level of talent as Hoffman, but would be a worth while grab if one or the other is available at 21.

Btw, I also agree on Chederoth, SAdams, CJohnson, McKinney and Marshall. I'm not sure about Medeiros yet, I kind of like him, but also not convinced. Haven't seen much on Weisenberg yet.

As for taking college arms...I like several of the HS arms, but if they are the same talent / ceiling than I'd suggest stock piling several of the college arms who will be ready qkly and still have upside to offer. When the HS arm is superior pick them. As for the financial the Tribe can over up 9.9% without incurring the loss of a draft pk. Drafting several underslot (college SRs) players would help balance it out.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon May 19, 2014 10:35 am

@Tondo.. Just looking at the pitchers.. (Bats need hats.. that will be for another day...)

Your listing of names is pretty extensive & well researched.. It's assumed that some names were omitted because you feel that the Indians would not have an opportunity to select them as early as # 21.. (e.g. Rodon/Aiken/Beede/Kolek/others.. certainly, won't be there.. why list them) The point of the listing appears to be guys the Indians WOULD have a chance to draft..

That said.. umbrage may be taken with:
-Zech Lemond.. not so certain about drafting a sore shouldered guy.. call it cautionary for now..
-Justus Sheffield.. not really much of a pro prospect at this point.. doesn't really project...
-Ben Holmes Wetzler.. not really interested in a felon.. a drunk one at that.. call this a low grade for citizenship?
-Daniel Gossett.. he's like 6 foot tall & 150 pounds, maybe has the physique of an 11 grade school boy?..

I'm sure there are guys that might be better choices.. these three are just the ones that I looked at and scratched my head.. W/R to a couple other names that might be added in their stead and later than first round picks.. How about:
-Spencer Adams.. the RHP from White County Ohio.. he's a 6'5 190 pounder that has all the tools to be special, three pitch mix with more velo on an already low 90's FB
- Tommy Doyle.. from Vienna Virginia's Flint Hill Academy.. he's a 6'6 215 pound right hander with pretty decent velo & two other offerings, He's only 17?

The orthopedist's dream team might see the Indians draft Hoffman, Fedde and Lemond with their first three picks.. I wouldn't be totally against it..
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon May 19, 2014 1:31 pm

Minorleagueball.com's most recent mock....

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/1 ... -version-2
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon May 19, 2014 1:38 pm

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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue May 20, 2014 5:47 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Minorleagueball.com's most recent mock....

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/1 ... -version-2


I would not complain if the Indians got Reid-Foley, who I like, but didn't have on my list because I think he will go 12-20, AJ Reed and Fedde.

It will be really hard for Antonetti to come up with 3 specs I would not like. It really comes down to if he can save some budget on top of selecting 3 good specs to set up the following picks. Those will be as crucial as the top 3. Lots of talent in this class.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue May 20, 2014 10:07 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Mlb.com's most recent mock...

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/moc ... y=news_mlb

I read Mayo's stuff and just shake my head..

Kodi Medeiros?.. the kid from Hawaii?... I have never seen.. but at 6 foot nothing and a hundred and something pounds.. for a first round FOR stud?.. I don't think so.. I like seven of the next eight guys Mayo lists better (Jacob Gatewood, a superb athlete that may comp to the Strawman or ARod, Nick Burdi..huge arm.. high floor/back of the pen closer to FOR SP, Conner Gillaspie..best power bat in the draft, Michael Chavis, corner IF'er with pop, Derek Fisher, coming off injury but is the goods when healthy, Foster Griffin and Spencer Adams..both big armed SP candidates at the highest level) Then at 31.. he pegs an RP with less upside than Burdi followed by three more guys that I like better: Gettys, Ortiz and Fedde.. I can only think that the prognostication that Mayo comes up with represents what he thinks the Indians would normally do as opposed to who the next best player is on his draft board is.. That is.. the signable guy the Indians select with the idea that they can "save money" for later (lesser talented) picks. This 'savings" affords the Indians a prospect who makes it to AA and then fizzles..

Drafting and developing high upside / high risk prospect.. is the only way this club is going to create the talent needed to compete..
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 20, 2014 12:38 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Mlb.com's most recent mock...

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/moc ... y=news_mlb

I read Mayo's stuff and just shake my head..

Kodi Medeiros?.. the kid from Hawaii?... I have never seen.. but at 6 foot nothing and a hundred and something pounds.. for a first round FOR stud?.. I don't think so.. I like seven of the next eight guys Mayo lists better (Jacob Gatewood, a superb athlete that may comp to the Strawman or ARod, Nick Burdi..huge arm.. high floor/back of the pen closer to FOR SP, Conner Gillaspie..best power bat in the draft, Michael Chavis, corner IF'er with pop, Derek Fisher, coming off injury but is the goods when healthy, Foster Griffin and Spencer Adams..both big armed SP candidates at the highest level) Then at 31.. he pegs an RP with less upside than Burdi followed by three more guys that I like better: Gettys, Ortiz and Fedde.. I can only think that the prognostication that Mayo comes up with represents what he thinks the Indians would normally do as opposed to who the next best player is on his draft board is.. That is.. the signable guy the Indians select with the idea that they can "save money" for later (lesser talented) picks. This 'savings" affords the Indians a prospect who makes it to AA and then fizzles..

Drafting and developing high upside / high risk prospect.. is the only way this club is going to create the talent needed to compete..

Not exactly a fan of Mayo myself, worth the look just to comp player value and to get another perspective. I'd prefer to stay away from Him myself. I like Reid-Foley at 21, I don't think he will be there. I seriously doubt Hoffman falls to the Tribe but if he does, he should be the pk. I'm not as high on Erick Fedde, but I think he could really payoff, either way I won't cry if they pass on him.

I like Luke Weaver, he's smallish but generates a lot of velo. it's possible he could slide all the way to 38, bc some are skeptical of his size / stuff...pegging him as a RP - I don't - I think he's a MOR arm with 2 potential.

I really like Casey Gillespie's bat, he could slide into top 20 pks, if he's there at 21 he'd be a nice pk, but he doesn't fit the middle of the diamond profile for the Tribe. Gillespie would be a nice add for the middle of the lineup, I'm hopeful the Tribe acts aggressively with multiple first rd pks and a sizable draft pool.

After last yrs draft, I'm not sure what direction they go this yr, but they talk about drafting the depth of the draft, this yr it is HS P and College P. Last yr they drafted a ton of P and seemingly targeted LHP.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 22, 2014 12:28 pm

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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 22, 2014 12:42 pm

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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 23, 2014 3:32 pm

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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat May 24, 2014 8:41 am

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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun May 25, 2014 8:06 pm

Funny thing I noticed: the top 4 Texas HS pitchers, Kolek, Kopech, Fulenchek, Supak, all of them big RHP's, all throw hard & have a plus secondary pitch, all are still projectable, & all have Eastern European, Ohio sounding surnames. Destiny. Anyway, here's some free content from PG on one of them:

http://perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9943

Some vid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r4SZGNahcs
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue May 27, 2014 7:38 am

As the first entry June draft draws every closer, there appears to be no particular consensus on who will be available when the Indians pick.. or who they will pick.. Being this close to the draft, "unusual" would be the word I'd use to describe the situation. The following may be useful"

SI/CNN has the Indians taking Sean Newcomb @ # 21; I'd be okay with this..
Minor League Ball has Sean Reid-Foley @ # 21, AJ Reed @ # 31 & Erick Fedde @ # 38: Happiness would ensue...
Baseball American (2) has the Indians taking Jeff Hoffman @ # 21 & AJ Reed @ # 31: a glorious result
MLB Draft Insider (soon defunct) has the Indians taking Casey Gillaspie @ # 21; meh..
MyMLB Draft has the Indians taking Casey Gillaspie @ # 21 w/ Luke Weaver @ # 31 & Braxton Davis @ # 38; An okay/very good result
MLB (Callis) has the Indians taking Brandon Finnegan @ # 21 & Derek Fisher @ # 31; Both are special players

The only agreement seems to be an interest in Casey Gillaspie and AJ Reed.. otherwise.. it's a lot of guessing.. Should be an interesting week..

Thoughts?..
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 27, 2014 8:41 am

G'Son,

As I'm sure you know, the Tribe takes middle of them diamond position players...so it's odd feeling to see corner position players mocked there for the tribe.

I think there is some cause for concern about Brandon Finnegan's shldr, but if he's healthy, he could be a Sonny Gray from the left side. Maybe expectations should fall on a Travis Wood type, I'd be fine that.

I like Luke Weaver, I've heard St. Louis is interested in him. If that's a thermometer for where he will fall he could be there at all three pks, 21, 31, 38. I won't be shocked to see St. Louis take him with one of their two first rd pks. I've seen Weaver projected anywhere from 12 to 75. There is question about his ability to stay in the rotation, bc his slider turns more into a slurve and he had some drop off in velo mid season. I think it was probably fatigue / mechanics related, but I really haven't heard. He has since bounced back, fwiw.

I've seen AJ Reed as a Freshman, thought he might be 3-5 rd pk. I haven't seen him since, but I know he's really come on as a hitter, but there is concern he's a bit slow / hitch in his swing, (based on what I have been told) but generates (obvious) power. Honestly, I'm not a fan at 21, 31, but he seems like a solid grab at 38.

I'm not convinced Jeff Hoffman or Erick Fedde make it to the Tribe at 21. Two advanced college arms, I think Hoffman could be a FOR arm. Fedde might profile as a number 2 if he hits his ceiling, but Hoffman, might develop into a number 1, with Ace stuff. Hoffman is worth the risk, and would likely move rather quickly if a team is willing to wait (12 - 18 mos.) for him to heal. I'm hopeful he falls to the Tribe and they are willing to gamble, but I'm not convinced he gets by the Jays, Royals and Nats all teams that for one reason or another might be willing to gamble.

I like both Derek Fisher and Casey Gillaspie one or the other and I'd be happy. I hope the Tribe comes away with a ton of pitching from this draft.

On a personal note I will be making a 700 mile move next week coming back to the Lake Erie area. I'm hopeful it's a smooth transition, and excited for the opportunity to get back where I belong. Hopefully, I will actually get to see the Indians and their affiliates in person - it's been too long.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue May 27, 2014 9:00 am

Thanks for the links homer, they're helpful to navigate through this class.

It's really a good class overall, but it seems like 80% of the specs I like are pitchers :eek

The College bats projected to go in the 3rd to 10th round are especially underwhelming as a group, so I'm hoping for two bats with the top 4 picks, but hopefully not Pentecost, Fisher, Sparks or Blandino. It's not that I don't like them, but I don't think they're top 50 talents in this draft. I'd rather take the underrated Zagunis in the 5th to 8th range. Zagunis and Sam Travis are the bats I like in those middle rounds. Consistent bats with a good approach. Derek Fisher hasn't hit .300 in 3 College seasons. He's still all hype and upside talk without sufficient production to gamble a top pick on.

HS bats are the biggest gambles, but there are some that I like. Chavis, F.Wall, B.Davidson and B.Bradley, though I would be reluctant to select any of them at 21. Bradley would be a good pick at 61 or 97, but I doubt the Indians are even considering him.

Other bats I like:

-SR OF/C Jeff Gardner from Louisville is another bat I like in that 8th to 15th round range. He has hit better than Cousino.
- FSU 3B Brizuela is another good buy low bat. He had a good CapeCod showing, but hasn't dominated this past season, but been consistently good (.320+ BA, .400+ OBP). In many ways he is comparable to D.Fisher but at a much lower price. Draft him on day 3 if still available (shockingly, he isn't on PG's top 500) and offer 100K and see what happens.
- OF/C Jimmy Pickens, Michigan St., some intriguing power/speed combo. 7 HRs and 11 SBs in 34 CapeCod games. He's projected to be a 8th to 15th rounder. Why not?
- 3B D.Tomscha was drafted out of CC in the 19th round in 2012. He had two very solid seasons at Auburn in the SEC (OBP over .400) and is a SR now, so anything from 8th to 20th round is possible.
- C Richard Gonzalez, Alabama State. Deep sleeper alert. From the PR BB Academy to Bama State and is still just 20yo. Good contact hitter, OBP over .440 the past two seasons. Some athleticism too, as he stole 18 bases in 22 attempts. Well worth a 100k deep day 3 flyer.
- SS Vince Conde, Vandy, also from PR and still 20yo. Consistent SEC bat and a MIF. Held his own in the CapeCod. If his defense is ok, he could go as high as 5th/6th round. Would take him from the 7th/8th on, but like him better as a day 3 flyer for a budget free 100k, but he probably won't last.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue May 27, 2014 9:34 am

As for pick 21: hard to predict who will be avilable, but the Indians are sitting good and will get some good talent there, even with an outside chance that a Beede or Schwarber falls.

I would only pick Hoffman or Fedde if they don't come over slot. What are the chances for that? I don't like the thought of compromising the other picks for a spec that will start off their first full season in A+ in 2016 at age 23, because that's the realistic path for Hoffman and Fedde. When they start their minors career a couple of other arms drafted in that class already contribute at the MLB level, let's not forget that when talking about their value. They won't be in a Tribe uni until 2017/18 and that's if they burn through the minors like Wacha or Crockett, so 2018/19 seems more realsitic. Don't know about you, but that thought doesn't excite me. They've basically become advanced JC/HS specs in terms of ETA, because the next two seasons are shot.

I like Gillaspie, but not as the first pick at 21. I'd rather take Beede, Schwarber, Reid-Foley or Holmes and even AJ Reed if available. I'd only want him if those are gone and he signs under slot.

Yes, the Indians don't like corner specs, but they also prefer advanced College bats and there aren't many around this draft, so hopefully they select one of Schwarber, Reed, Gillaspie or S.Travis at some point.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue May 27, 2014 10:57 am

hmm.. For the most part.. I agree... with both postings..

@ Homer: Congrats on the Return to the North Coast.. The Indians need ONE more fan going to the games..

@ Tondo.. Yeah.. the need to wait for recovery then development etc.. can be a huge burden.. The prize at the end of the wait, is worth it.. Take the best example of a "highly decorated" spec from the 2012 draft that needed TJ before he could start his path to the ML's, Lucas Giolito.. Giolito is just over 7 weeks from his 20th's birthday. Hoffman, Celebrated his 21st birthday 4 1/2 months ago.. Regardless of who drafts him, Hoffman will be 22 when he hits A+ ball for the first time & possibly as old as 25 when he see his first action in MLB.. That's about normal.. Given the promise of a FOR SP.. it's worth the risk, i.m.h.o. I would rather have a post TJ Hoffman that is a mature 25 when he hits MLB for the first time.. than a Tyler Beede at 24 or a 24 year old Sean Newcomb.. Hoffman promises to be a better pitcher.. better than perhaps all the guys in this draft not names Aikens or Kolek, imho..

Bats: If the Indians don't draft a single bat until the 8th round.. I wouldn't be upset.. That would mean they have a stable of 10 new pitchers from THIS draft.. This draft is STRONG w/r to pitching talent.. Bats can be traded for or acquired in several ways.. Pitchers.. have to be drafted/created/developed...

Thoughts?..
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 27, 2014 12:09 pm

G'Son, thanks, not sure if I'll get to make the trek westward to Cleveland to see the Tribe, but I should at least get an opportunity to see Akron @ Erie. I'll be happy with that. A lot to get settled, a new ministry opportunity, 1 more yr of Masters level classes and a large and growing (one on the way) family.

As for drafting Hoffman, I think once healthy he makes the transition through the minors qkly. He's got the build to add some weight / strength. I'd suggest he could come back bigger, thicker and stronger than before and would probably be on pace to debut at age 24/25 if he's as good as I think he can be I would suggest the former. That would be about average.

Completely agree, re: bats. I like a cpl guys, but I like the pitching prospects even more. I think it's possible there could be a run on the advanced bats early, perhaps causing some talented pitching to slip. I would not be shocked to see the Tribe go college bat early (Gillespie, Fisher, Reed, Schwarber) and then load up on pitching.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 27, 2014 12:24 pm

@Tondo,

Agree, re: Jeff Gardner - OF / C from Louisville, I think he'd be a nice underslot pk rds 8-10. Also, agree, Mark Zagunis C from Va Tech he should fall in the 5-10 range.

I like Derek Fisher and Taylor Sparks, Fisher at 31, 38 and Sparks at 61, 97. Fisher's tools are enticing, I think he might come around, won't be a star, but a very good player. Sparks K's are concerning, I think he will improve his K rate, but his power is hard to pass if he's there that late.

I really like Reid-Foley and Grant Holmes, I'd like one or the other if they slide, I'd prefer Holmes, but really want to see some college arms like Ellis, Imhof, Nick Howard, Chris Oliver, Jake Cosart (JC), Andrew Saurez, Austin Gomber, Eric Skugland, Wyatt Strahan, Jake Lindgren, Zech Lemond, Andrew Morales, Dillon Peters, Lukas Schiraldi

HS arms I'd like to see them grab (outside Holmes, Reid-Foley) Michael Kopech, Cobi Johnson, Grant Fulencheck, Trey Suppak.

A cpl Juco redraft possibilities....Dustin Cook, and Paul Young.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue May 27, 2014 2:06 pm

Yeah, the strength is clearly pitching and the College arms are solid to very good, which causes many to go under the radar. There are also some I see a little overrated. Not a fan of N.Howard, C.Oliver, Skoglund, Ellis and Strahan compared to where they are being ranked. I could take any of those and compare them to other pitchers that are being ranked a handful of rounds later without much difference. Take Oliver vs Beeks as an example. I have to guess that he doesn't throw as hard, but Beeks has been as good if not better on the same team vs the same competition, so I'd rather pick Beeks in rounds 8-10 than Oliver in the top rounds.

Same with Fisher. All this hype about him but where's the production? It's ok, but far from 1st round material. He's not a HS spec, he had 3 years in College and never broke the .300 BA or .900 OPS mark or double digits in HR and SB, that just doesn't scream top 50 pick to me, if you compare that to specs of recent drafts.

Really like Lindgren too. Should be a Crockett-like quick mover through any system, but will come at a steeper price. Crockett was the 111th pick, Lindgren will go anywhere from 40-80. He'd be a solid pick at 61, but a little high at 38 for a LHRP. I'm really high on a couple of other College closers, who are ranked much lower: David Berg from UCLA and Johnathan Holder from Mississippi St.. Also Michael Gunn from Arkansas and Sam Clay from GT, two LH closers.
Virginia also has three solid bullpen arms, who should all be available on day 3: Lewicki, A.Young and W.Mayberry. They're all Seniors, I think. Why not go back selecting from the program that delivered Crockett?
Then there's the Vandy closer Brian Miller. Everybody has Jared Miller and Ravenelle high on their rankings from that squad, but both seem overrated to me and their closer is a nice value on day 3.

So many good College arms, re-draft candidates Ruxer, A.Brown and F.Duncan in that 6th to 15th round range. Add Oregon's Tommy Thorpe, Aggie RHP Mengden, S.Carolina lefty Jordan Montgomery, UNC's Benton Moss, Robichaux - LA Lafa to the one's you already mentioned in Gomber, Suarez, Morales, Lemond etc

How about this mostly College, all pitchers mock draft:

21 RHP Reid-Foley or RHP Weaver
31 LHP Imhof or RHP Fedde
38 LHP M.Marshall or LHP F.Griffin
61 RHP K.McKinney or LHP J.Sheffield
97 RHP Stinnett or LHP A.Suarez
127 RHP Mengden or LHP A.Brown
157 LHP Gomber or LHP J.Montgomery
187 LHP J.Beeks or RHP B.Moss
217 RHP Ruxer or RHP A.Morales
247 RHP Robichaux or RHP Prevost
277 RHRP J.Holder or RHRP D.Berg
307 LHP Thorpe or LHP H.Musgrave

That should add plenty of pitching depth and be easily within the budget :lol
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue May 27, 2014 4:01 pm

deleted... :cool
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed May 28, 2014 1:14 pm

I'd like Brian Miller and Dave Berg, both are juniors might be able to grab them rds 8-15. Also, Ryan Harris from Fl, he's got a deceptive delivery.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed May 28, 2014 1:31 pm

Teams draft analysis 2009-13 courtesy of minorleagueball.com...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/1 ... hytdbwtata
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed May 28, 2014 1:36 pm

Here's a decent rundown of the Tribe...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/2 ... ndians-mod
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu May 29, 2014 8:53 am

hmm... a week away from the draft.. lots of activity.. cross check.. double check.. medicals... APGAR.. He wet the bed until he was 14.. pass on that... The crush of information has to be reaching it's peak this weekend.. For the top three or four clubs.. no problema..If it's not Kolek, it will be Rodon.. if it's not Aiken, it will be ______________________ (fill in top five name).. When teams get into the mid teens and onward.. it's a guessing game and/or crap shoot.. It's a who likes who better than who and why??!?? For the Indians, this is the resupply of their lifeblood. The Indians (and other teams like the pirates and rays) cannot make huge gaffes in selecting a player who will not become what they expect. The first ten rounds are the only ten rounds as it relates to players making an impact at the ML level some time in the not so distant future. Less than 10% of players taken after the 10th round ever matter at the ML level. It's all about the top of the draft.. The Indians have picks 21, 31, 38, 67 and 97 in this draft. There are seven more meaningful rounds, but these five picks in the first 100 names are going to be used to measure the success or failure of this draft.. That said & with one week to go... Here is one "mock" for consideration...

The ALL ORTHOPEDIC Draft:

-1.21 Jeff Hoffman..
-1.31 Erick Fedde..
-1.38 Brandon Finnegan
-2.67 Derek Fisher
-3.97 Zech Lemond

Well.. this kind of draft would raise the ire of just about everyone in North East Ohio with the first question being: What are these guys doing, are they stupid or what?.. Followed by the inevitable "..Dolan is just being cheap.. buying bargains.." Maybe not so stupid.. maybe the smartest moves the club can make?. At this point.. who can know?.. BTW.. if by some miracle, this was the Draft, then Tribe fans can expect a normal to slightly later impact of these guys on the ML squad.. None of these guys would make it to the ML in 2014 or 2015.. A draft like this would point toward 2015 late and 2016, realistically. Most draft picks take three to five years, anyway, so there might be a slower path, but, with the talent these kids have.. patience is not only a virtue, it's a smart virtue...
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 29, 2014 9:04 am

If two or three of those guys panned out it would be a solid draft.

Anyone know some other injured players from HS & college that might slip through the cracks?
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu May 29, 2014 9:12 am

The above.. is a tongue in cheek mock that has been rolling around.. It tends toward what MoneyBall is really all about.. Finding undervalued assets for a baseball club and exploiting them.. The use of statistics define the undervalue in most cases..

There are other mock drafts that are more realistic..this one might be close to them.. With one week to go, here it is:

1.21 Jeff Hoffman/Sean Newcomb/Grant Holmes
1.31 Michael Cederoth/Michael Kopech
1.38 Derek Fisher/Erick Fedde/Brandon Finnegan
2.67 Foster Griffin/Garrett Fulenchek/Ti'Quan Forbes
3.97 Chris Ellis/Matt Chapman/Keaton McKinney/Kel Johnson

The order of priority is first listed.. So the best outcome would be Hoffman, Big Cedes, Fisher Foster and Ellis.. Thoughts?...
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Fri May 30, 2014 10:55 am

I'm not a fan of Cederoth and Fisher that high, but Hoffman and Griffin would be strong picks where you have them. Not sure about Ellis. With the alternatives you offered, I'd be very happy with any of the 3 at 21 and would take Finnegan and Fedde at 31+38. Not sure why you think Finnegan will fall that far? Did I miss something? Next, I would take the two prep arms Griffin and McKinney. Hoffman, Finnegan, Fedde, Griffin, McKinney sounds too good to be true and that's why it won't happen :wink

Warming up on the idea of taking Chavis, even at 21, but depending on who's available would probably prefer 31. The Indians will draft a MIF in the top rounds, might as well be him, though Brian Anderson at 61 would be fine with me too. I like F.Wall too, but that shoulder stuff is concerning. As long as it's not Blandino or Gatewood with one of the three picks, that would disappoint me. My general plan would be to sign and save some budget on players early and then take some gambles on falling HS specs after round 10. A lot of HS specs will not get what they wanted simply because of a numbers game. The lucky team that was able to save 700k+ early will have a shot at those (plus the extra budget free 100k after round 10) while having the likes of Imhof, Stinnett, Morales, Gardner etc in the fold

Here's an interesting comment from P.Ebert from PG's draft chat:

Player that in your mind should be drafted in the first round, but likely won't be ?

Patrick Ebert: "I will say that I think Justus Sheffield has some of the best pitchability I've seen at the HS level and think he could be a guy we all wonder how he didn't go int the first round 2-3 years down the road."

That's why I'm so bullish on Sheffield

and regarding M.Marshall:

Frankie Piliere:
"I think he's a real nice fit in the first compensation round. Someone could step up in the back of the first though. He's really developed his secondaries to an advanced level this spring."

If the Indians want Marshall, it has to be 21 or 31 it seems

Here's the entire chat: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vie ... ticle=9962

BA's Top 500: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri May 30, 2014 1:01 pm

tondo.. yes.. of course you've missed something.. it's age..

An early May start or two was passed because Finnegan suffered what was described as:

"...The second-place Horned Frogs (31-13, 10-5 Big 12) were scorching in April, going 16-1, thanks mainly to smothering pitching. TCU, however, may be without usual Friday night starter Brandon Finnegan, who has inflammation in his left throwing shoulder.

TCU coach Jim Schlossnagle said the left-hander from Fort Worth Southwest High School is feeling better since leaving last Friday’s game in the third inning. Finnegan could be available to start Sunday if his bullpen session goes well Friday morning.

“I’m not pitching him until he tells me he doesn’t feel anything,” Schlossnagle said. “If that means he has to skip one weekend to get him back on Friday nights then that’s what we’re going to do.”

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/05/01 ... rylink=cpy

While it appears to be a small issue.. an issue exists, none the less.. With Finnegans max effort windup, there's good reason to believe this will not be the last time there could be a problem... Add to the fact that he's not the biggest guy (less than 6 foot) and having only two good pitches. and a history of control issues... He just seems to be a guy that will drop in this draft, imho.. Long term.. it would not surprise me if he became a bull pen guy.. we'll see..
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 30, 2014 2:22 pm

I've heard Brandon Finnegan = Billy Wagner, that might be a fair comp.

It could be draftitis, where Finnegan doesn't want to pitch unless it's meaningful ($$$). But there are concerns about his size and durability long term, I would steer clear myself unless they were certain, he is protecting himself by not pitching.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 30, 2014 10:08 pm

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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Jun 01, 2014 7:02 pm

Pirates trade Bryan Morris to the Marlins and pick up their Competitive Balance pick (and the $ 1.58 MM in draft pool money)..

Smart move by Neil Huntington.. What would a trade of equal of superior value look like from the Indians in place of Morris?. Would Scott Barnes, Nick Hagadone or Jose Ramirez be a better return than Bryan Morris?.. Would the 39th overall pick in the coming draft mean more than any one of those three guys down the road?..

THoughts???
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:56 am

I think the Tribe should be in on this type move. Creative way to add talent and depth if they can stretch the money out, lots of flexibility for the Pirates. As for value I'd suggest Barnes and hags might net some international cash, JRam / ACab might bring that value or more, IMHO.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:13 am

GeronimoSon wrote:Pirates trade Bryan Morris to the Marlins and pick up their Competitive Balance pick (and the $ 1.58 MM in draft pool money)..

Smart move by Neil Huntington.. What would a trade of equal of superior value look like from the Indians in place of Morris?. Would Scott Barnes, Nick Hagadone or Jose Ramirez be a better return than Bryan Morris?.. Would the 39th overall pick in the coming draft mean more than any one of those three guys down the road?..

THoughts???


I wouldn't move Jose Ramirez for the 39th pick but any of the relievers you mentioned I'd do in a heartbeat. Would throw in just about any reliever on the 40-man other than Shaw and Allen really.

Agree, great/smart move by Huntington. Really don't get this move for the Marlins...at all.
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Re: 2014 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:17 pm

Great move by the Pirates.

Wonder if Outman + Hagadone would have gotten it done too? Could have moved Crockett back to the 25 and still have solid depth with Zagurski and Barnes. Would have been a no brainer for me. Another top50 pick and budget boost in this draft would have been huge.

JRam would be a no go though.

As for the draft, believe it or not, I'm starting to like some more HS arms. I already am very bullish on Holmes, Reid-Foley, M.Marshall, F.Griffin, Sheffield, Weisenberg, Cobi Johnson, McKinney and Sands. Now you can add Brendan McKay, Logan Webb, Ryan Castellani, Cre Finfrock, Zach Shannon, Marvin Gorgas, Jake Jarvis, Andrew Karp and Jordan Yamamoto to the mix. All of those specs are ranked 100+ on most boards and would be very good picks in the mid rounds or as budget/money gambles past the 10th round.

My All-HS arms mock would look something like this:

21 Holmes/Reid-Foley/F.Griffin
31 Marshall/F.Griffin/L.Ortiz
38 J.Sheffield/Medeiros/C.Sands
61 McKinney/Weisenberg/C.Varga
97 C.Johnson/Cease/Castellani
127 Finfrock/A.Karp/Hockin
157 McKay
187 Z.Shannon
217 Webb
247 Yamamoto
277 Gorgas
307 Jarvis
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