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2013 MLB Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:49 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Tondo,

I agree with a lot of what you are saying. I don't think you trade potential for safety at 5, unless it seems its a fair tradeoff. If let's say for instance the Tribe feels that Frazier or Stewart would be a better pick than Shipley they need to make the pick. I think you make valid points RE: Stewart. However, if the Tribe feels they can develop him into a FOR arm he could be the choice. Personally, I think he has a legit chance to develop, but a lot depends upon the system he's drafted into.

I agree Ball is a longer term 'project' but is a legit LHSP with FOR potential IMHO. The length of development for Ball could be a bit longer than you'd like but could be rewarding in the end. As you pointed out a high ceiling / low floor pick.

My personal best guess is the Tribe makes the pick between Shipley, Frazier and Meadows. The Tribe has relatively no recent history of drafting and developing HS arms in the 1st rd. Id be willing to say right now if Shipley is there he's the guy, but if he's gone I think it's Frazier than Meadows (in that order). If something crazy goes down at the top than who knows maybe Gray falls into the lap of the Tribe, but it's any one's guess right now.


I agree Homer.....playing it safe gets you Jeremy Sowers or Trevor Crowe........going upside can get you Sabathia and Manny.....now going upside may only succeed 1-4 times every 10 years (hopefully better) but would you rather have a team of Crowes/Sowers or 1 or 2 studs like CC or Manny? Our drafting in the 90's was not great but we did hit on Ramirez, Sabathia, and Jaret Wright (for a brief time) with our first and hit gold mines in Thome (our of a JC) and Giles (well he was a gold mine....but for Pitts).
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:33 pm

I wrote a novel on how I disagree with that "dreaming big" thinking, but the board "ate it" and I don't feel like re-type it all out, bummer.

Recap: FOR come from both HS and College, but most of the HS guys become FOR or bust and most College guys become BOR/MORs and thus the false logic of HS turning into more FORs. BOR/MOR are clearly more College, due to higher "floor". So, overall, the better bet is the College arm. Wacha, Gausman, AJ Griffin, Strasburg, Minor, Harvey, Sale, Cole, Hultzen, Bauer just from the past 3 drafts

Also, give me 4 BORs and 4 MORs and my team will have more wins after 162 games. Many forget in all of this that the game started by your FOR is worth as much as those started by your no3, 4, 5 or 8 SP. Drafting HS in "depth rounds" (3-15) leads to lacking that depth. Ask the Blue Jays who are "very aggressive" HS drafters

My point was not about settling for less or trade floor for upside. My point was that "upside" or "projectability" are place holder arguments. They are terms for something that is not there and explain what actually needs to be explained. "Dreaming big" is a pretty good fit for this phenomenon and what it boils down to: belief, opinion etc.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:40 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:@ OB

How do you think the top four will play out?


I think Mark Appel should go #1 and Jonathan Gray will go #2. If you forget everything else and just watch Appel and Gray square off against each other, I think most scouts would go with Jonathan Gray because his fastball is an excellent pitch with very good movement and leverage. Appel is very good in his own right, but he's got a stiff delivery and I don't think his stuff is as explosive.

I was critical of Mark Appel last year. I don't think he was a #1 overall guy and it turns out neither did other teams because they didn't pay him the top money he wanted. That being said, he's taken a step forward this year as his command of his pitches is very good for a college guy. I saw him as a sophomore and thought he was a little rough, but he improved his junior year and he has again improved this year.

Jonathan Gray has more of a sloppy body and has been inconsistent in years past. This year he turned it on for the draft, but is he going to revert back after he gets paid? I don't think so, but his body of work is less impressive and while I don't think the adderral thing will be a huge deal, it is a stimulant with affects similar to amphetamines. I work out regularly and know people that use similar products (1,3-dimethylamylamine) and yes it makes a difference...not huge, but it helps performance. Jonathan Gray's fastball is Justin Verlander-like and his breaking ball is plus MLB level already and he shows a good change (though he needs to speed up his arm for it) -- he's great, but the body of work is less as impressive compared to Appel. Appel is safer, and yet he still throws very hard with good movement and has a breaking ball of similar quality to Gray's.

People seem to think Kris Bryant is a lock to be off the board before the Indians pick, but I think that's a little high-praise for him. I wouldn't be jumping up and down in excitement if he makes it to the Indians, but he's far preferable to Moran.

There's a lot of variables that are being discussed right regarding what players want. Some players may ask for more or less than what scouts think they're worth, and that'll move the draft board for sure. I think it's less likely to impact the early picks this year b/c the teams with early picks don't have a lot of other picks -- saving money on the 1st overall selection won't really help Houston like it did last year because they have far fewer picks than they did in 2012. The Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Indians don't have comp picks so they've got less flexibility, which I believe reduces the chance of someone like Colin Moran going to the Astros to sign an underslot deal -- that doesn't make much sense this year. You can save money, but teams don't know who'll be there for them later which makes such a move very risky unless you just hate the top players in the draft.

I'd be excited if the Indians got Appel, Gray or Frazier. I've loved Frazier since last summer. I never saw anything to indicate that he struggles vs. breaking balls, but if that's true its a problem. I'd be disappointed if the Indians came away with Tyler Naquin and Colin Moran in two consecutive drafts. Naquin has been showing decent power this year, but he's also striking out a lot vs. A-ball pitching.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:10 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Here's a few scouting reports for some of the top prospects in this weeks MLB draft from minorleagueball.com....

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/6/3/43 ... mark-appel

Shipley looks good AFA having a college guy with some upside left but I've read concerns about the breaking ball. If it doesn't develop he's a reliever. We have a penchant for converting SP's into RP's on the least provocation. Wouldn't mind him as the pick & hope for the best.

Give me Frazier. Upside/high floor combined. Power plus & I believe he can stick in center.

David Rawnsley at PG has raves about Jonah Wesely. He's topped out physically as a HS but is a good sized LHP that touches 93 & sits at 91-92, who has what Rawnsley believes is the 2nd best HS curve in the draft. Rawnsely on Wesely: "He's an 18 year old left-hander with a 93 mph fastball and three quality off-speed pitches and he's shown the ability to throw all four pitches for strikes." He's also learning to pitch off of his fastball, locate low, and not just get cheap K's by overwhelming run of the mill HS batters with the plus CB.

Target sighted...
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:12 pm

Tondo wrote:I wrote a novel on how I disagree with that "dreaming big" thinking, but the board "ate it" and I don't feel like re-type it all out, bummer.

Recap: FOR come from both HS and College, but most of the HS guys become FOR or bust and most College guys become BOR/MORs and thus the false logic of HS turning into more FORs. BOR/MOR are clearly more College, due to higher "floor". So, overall, the better bet is the College arm. Wacha, Gausman, AJ Griffin, Strasburg, Minor, Harvey, Sale, Cole, Hultzen, Bauer just from the past 3 drafts

Also, give me 4 BORs and 4 MORs and my team will have more wins after 162 games. Many forget in all of this that the game started by your FOR is worth as much as those started by your no3, 4, 5 or 8 SP. Drafting HS in "depth rounds" (3-15) leads to lacking that depth. Ask the Blue Jays who are "very aggressive" HS drafters

My point was not about settling for less or trade floor for upside. My point was that "upside" or "projectability" are place holder arguments. They are terms for something that is not there and explain what actually needs to be explained. "Dreaming big" is a pretty good fit for this phenomenon and what it boils down to: belief, opinion etc.

I agree with a lot of what you saying. It's a crab shoot picking HS players and pitchers in particular. Since you mentioned recent drafts may I point out the Francisco Lindor selection. Lindor seems to be well on his way to being a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball in 2014. When he was selected at the age of 17 he was one of the youngest players picked. Should the Tribe have selected the BPA or went the safe route? Had the Tribe chosen the safe route the system would have been lacking of the games most talented young SS.

All of this being said, I think a team has to weigh it out. Will the player... Frazier, Stewart, Meadows for instance, be as good or better in terms of develop at the same point as say Braden Shipley. Unfortunately, it does come to projection. I don't think teams such as the Indians can take these decisions lightly. When I look at the potential miss margins in College and HS arms the team MUST be convinced that player will be better at the same point or it's a wash. Also, worth noting is the fact how similar Kohl Stewart and Braden Shipley really are... 6'3 190 is hardly frail but it's not the "classic" size either. Both Stewart and Shipley are relatively raw as pitchers. Obviously, Shipley is more refined and 2.5 yrs older, will Stewart be equal or better at the same point of development? Only the Tribes FO can answer that on their behalf. I like Stewart and if Shipley is gone Id be OK with that pick. Personally, I'm not convinced Stewart will be better than Shipley, but he might.

Side note here: I read the stats (somewhere?) of 1st rd College arms and HS arms since 1965 that appeared in the big leagues for at least 1 game. College arms...71% HS arms...57%. That is a 14% difference in favor of College arms.

I don't think it's as easy as saying college is safer and more accurate way to go to build the farm system. I think it's much deeper than that. The farm system itself, the organizational values, etc. that come into play. More specifically, I think it comes down to a pick by pick basis. There truly is not road map for success out side of developing home grown talent (and making schrewd deals) for a team such as the Tribe.

While I agree in general that college picks are fairly safe selections because much of the development has already occurred and projection becomes much easier in most cases. Teams simply can't over look talented, advanced HS players such as Francisco Lindor in the name of safety or the club will rob themselves of players who have the potential to lead and carry the org. to the next level, not of contention, but of winning championships.

All of this said, I'll say again... I think the 5th pick comes down to three players: Braden Shipley, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows in that order. If Shipley is gone I think Frazier is the pick unless one of Appel, Bryant and Gray are there for some reason.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:18 pm

Houston has picks 1, 40 and 74.. seems like they could be in a prime position, especially at # 40 to make a play for just about ANY player who's demands makes signing him too rich for a club drafting in front of them. i.e. the draft pool could be severely depleted. With the savings achieved by the stros w/ their first pick(say Moran at # 1 for ~ $ 4 MM ).. they could afford the contract for, essentially, a second high first round choice.. And it would still be a mistake. it would require the Stros to pass on two guys who should be considered & are projected to be FOR SP's.. It only takes one dumb decision like that to set a franchise back for two, three or five years..
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:26 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Here's a few scouting reports for some of the top prospects in this weeks MLB draft from minorleagueball.com....

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/6/3/43 ... mark-appel

Shipley looks good AFA having a college guy with some upside left but I've read concerns about the breaking ball. If it doesn't develop he's a reliever. We have a penchant for converting SP's into RP's on the least provocation. Wouldn't mind him as the pick & hope for the best.

Give me Frazier. Upside/high floor combined. Power plus & I believe he can stick in center.

David Rawnsley at PG has raves about Jonah Wesely. He's topped out physically as a HS but is a good sized LHP that touches 93 & sits at 91-92, who has what Rawnsley believes is the 2nd best HS curve in the draft. Rawnsely on Wesely: "He's an 18 year old left-hander with a 93 mph fastball and three quality off-speed pitches and he's shown the ability to throw all four pitches for strikes." He's also learning to pitch off of his fastball, locate low, and not just get cheap K's by overwhelming run of the mill HS batters with the plus CB.

Target sighted...

I'm down to Shipley, Frazier, Meadows at 5. But I just have to throw out Catcher Reese McGuire as a dark horse candidate. He seems like a fairly safe pick even as a HS and plays a premium middle of the diamond position.

I'm not really sure at 79 bc there's just a huge amount of guys I think cluster together tightly, I think we might find a pleasant surprise or two a bit later than we expected bc of it.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Tue Jun 04, 2013 3:42 pm

Rocky55 wrote: David Rawnsley at PG has raves about Jonah Wesely. He's topped out physically as a HS but is a good sized LHP that touches 93 & sits at 91-92, who has what Rawnsley believes is the 2nd best HS curve in the draft. Rawnsely on Wesely: "He's an 18 year old left-hander with a 93 mph fastball and three quality off-speed pitches and he's shown the ability to throw all four pitches for strikes." He's also learning to pitch off of his fastball, locate low, and not just get cheap K's by overwhelming run of the mill HS batters with the plus CB.

Target sighted...


That's good enough for me. David Rawnsley is probably the best person in the amateur prospect reporting business. Put that kid on the draft board!
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Wed Jun 05, 2013 4:25 am

Looks like the consenus on here is to draft Frazier if Gray, Appel and Bryant are gone and I'm on board with that, but opinions on who's 5th seems to vary.

Thanks on the heads up on Wesely, Rocky. Will keep an eye on him. BA has him way down on their top 500, so he could be a good mid round gamble

Some fun facts, looking over BA's bloodlines list:

- 5th to 10th round SR LHP Matt Boyd is a distant relative of Bob Feller. I had him in my Indians mock without knowing

- same goes for RHP Luke Farrell, who's father is John Farrell

- funny enough, RHP McGowin, who I also had in my mock, is a distant relative of Ty Cobb
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:00 am

Tondo wrote:Looks like the consenus on here is to draft Frazier if Gray, Appel and Bryant are gone and I'm on board with that, but opinions on who's 5th seems to vary.

Thanks on the heads up on Wesely, Rocky. Will keep an eye on him. BA has him way down on their top 500, so he could be a good mid round gamble

Some fun facts, looking over BA's bloodlines list:

- 5th to 10th round SR LHP Matt Boyd is a distant relative of Bob Feller. I had him in my Indians mock without knowing

- same goes for RHP Luke Farrell, who's father is John Farrell

- funny enough, RHP McGowin, who I also had in my mock, is a distant relative of Ty Cobb

I'd agree, seems like the pick will likely be down to Frazier and Shipley with the next possibility Austin Meadows. I'd call Reese McGuire my dark horse candidate for the pick.

Thanks for the heads up on Matt Boyd, seems like I heard that before.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Jun 05, 2013 11:24 am

Philosophy: is defined as the study of general and fundamental problems, such as those connected with reality, existence, knowledge, values, reason, mind, and language. Philosophy is distinguished from other ways of addressing such problems by its critical, generally systematic approach and its reliance on rational argument. Well, here's an irrational argument:

One of the changes to the Indians philosophy in generating/finding talent needs to be a grass roots, from the bottom up, fill the minor league system with major league talent. The Indians have a few guys who might be considered ML talent, but, not as many as they would like. The Indians Major League talent resides, for the most part, in Lake County (A-) for the Captains and Zebullon (A+) for the Muddies and the vast majority of these guys (Lindor, Paulino, Ronnie Rod, Naquin Wolters Luigi, Levon, D'Vone, etc..) are position players. The Indians two best arms, Bauer and Salazar, didn't come via the draft (they were traded for and signed as a free agent, respectively) The draft is where the Indians need to get impact arms.. With that said..

It has become painfully clear that whoever has the chance to provide the Indians with the best impact arm in the first round is who the Indians are going to take. For the Indians next pick at # 79, repeat philosophy of pick number one.. There shouldn't be a position player selected by the Indians until the middle of the second day of the draft.. So, here are the guys that make the list for # 79 and onward (in no particular order):

RHP Chris Oakley 6'8" 240 SP; with an easy 95+ mph FB and just learning the position
RHP Trevor Clifton 6'5"" 180 SP; who is all projection at this point. Has a legitimate 90+ mph FB with sink
RHP Derek Beauprez 6'5" 220 SP; with a low to mid 90's FB that is new to pitching
RHP Carlos Salazar 6'2" 200 SP; with a power arm, FB touches upper 90s with Change up and Curve
RHP Jordan Sheffield 6'3" 195 SP; Plus FB and Hammer Curve
RHP Clinton Hollon 6'1" 195 SP; FB is back into the mid 90's after injury. Has regained elite SP prospect status
RHP Casey Shane 6'4" 210 SP; Three pitch mix and lots of projection
RHP Bret Morales 6'2" 190 SP; converted IF'er. 92 MPH FB with two developing secondaries. quite an athlete

LHP A.J. Puk 6'7"225 SP; High ceiling Iowa boy. Mid low 90's FB and athleticism to burn
LHP Hunter Green 6'4" 170 SP; low 90's FB with lots of room to add velo, A plus kid all around
LHP Stephen Gonsalves 6'5" 210 SP; Has a Paul Byrd kind of wind up, lots of moving parts but has great feel for pitching
LHP Tyler Nurdin 6'3" 215 SP; Mid 90's FB and control, best when facing the best

If the Indians can land half of these arms (after their first pick) in the first ten round, that would be superb. If they can land a third of these arms, that would generate the kind of depth in the pitching staff Indians fans are seeing with the position players..

Comments?...
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:38 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:RHP Chris Oakley 6'8" 240 SP; with an easy 95+ mph FB and just learning the position
RHP Trevor Clifton 6'5"" 180 SP; who is all projection at this point. Has a legitimate 90+ mph FB with sink
RHP Derek Beauprez 6'5" 220 SP; with a low to mid 90's FB that is new to pitching
RHP Carlos Salazar 6'2" 200 SP; with a power arm, FB touches upper 90s with Change up and Curve
RHP Jordan Sheffield 6'3" 195 SP; Plus FB and Hammer Curve
RHP Clinton Hollon 6'1" 195 SP; FB is back into the mid 90's after injury. Has regained elite SP prospect status
RHP Casey Shane 6'4" 210 SP; Three pitch mix and lots of projection
RHP Bret Morales 6'2" 190 SP; converted IF'er. 92 MPH FB with two developing secondaries. quite an athlete

LHP A.J. Puk 6'7"225 SP; High ceiling Iowa boy. Mid low 90's FB and athleticism to burn
LHP Hunter Green 6'4" 170 SP; low 90's FB with lots of room to add velo, A plus kid all around
LHP Stephen Gonsalves 6'5" 210 SP; Has a Paul Byrd kind of wind up, lots of moving parts but has great feel for pitching
LHP Tyler Nurdin 6'3" 215 SP; Mid 90's FB and control, best when facing the best

If the Indians can land half of these arms (after their first pick) in the first ten round, that would be superb. If they can land a third of these arms, that would generate the kind of depth in the pitching staff Indians fans are seeing with the position players..

Comments?...


After seeing about half of those guys last summer, I'm really surprised to see them being talked about as 3rd round or later picks.

Of note, Jordan Sheffield just had Tommy John surgery, so that's why you'll see him lower on this list.

I like Brett Morales. He must have not looked so good this spring b/c he was a potential 1st round guy, in my opinion. I saw him sitting on 92-93 with a very nice overhand curveball, so to be talking about 4th round...he must have lost something.

I think AJ Puk has good upside, but he's also pretty raw. Same with Chris Oakley.

I don't care much for Casey Shane.

The guys that interest me the most are Jordan Sheffield and Brett Morales (and Chris Oakley). Sheffield is going to Vanderbilt, so it may be pricey to sign him, but that's definitely a name to watch!!
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:52 pm

Agreed, I think we could see a more aggressive approach... Maybe for perspective sake as aggressive or more so than last yr outside of the top pick (Naquin). I'm sure they'll target a few signable guys in the top ten, but I expect them to target starting pitching and athleticism heavily. I've heard (cant remember the source) they scouted college arms heavily all season. If that is true, I think they'll target a few guys in the mix for top 10 rds. Also, look for the Tribe to select several LH pitchers this time around. This yr is a bit deeper, but I also think the org. will try to snag several of these guys.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:55 pm

I agree w/ OB,

Sheffield will be hard sign but he's a top 25 talent. I think he could slide depending upon the general feeling of signability but TJ or not he's a talent worthy of the 79 pick, IMHO. I doubt he goes that high to be honest, I think he could be a guy the Tribe snags in rds 3-7. But that is no measure of his potential as a SP.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Wed Jun 05, 2013 1:20 pm

I see the HS-hype is all go on here. Might consider this: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/dr ... s-produce/

Looks to me like te WAR-battle clearly goes to the College ranks.

Speaking of, here are my SR sleepers for day 3, only bats, will do the pitchers tomorrow:

SS Pat Blair - WForest...consistent OBP-machine with some speed. "young" SR (class 91)

OF Kanzler - Buffalo...nice power/speed combo, questionable eye

1B LB Dantzler - SCar...just had a monster season (born 91)

2B Denver Chavez - CalPoly...horrible MIF class, but this guy doesnt look worse than some top10 round MIF specs. Has some speed and gets on base

1B/3B George Roberts - Kent St. ....lacks speed/power but is just a good hitter to add. Next Sabourin?

SS John Murphy - Sacred Heart....consistent producer, improved every year, has speed ('91) = worth a shot

OF Chad Christensen - Nebraska...light speed and power, but a good hitter, was drafted in round 35 last season.

1B Cody Stubbs - UNC...was drafted in round 14 in 2011 out of JC but didnt sign, had a disappointing JR season adjusting to the ACC, but a monster SR season ('91)

3B Cal Towey - Baylor...consistent 4 year performer. Similar College totals to ex-teammate and last year's 11th rounder L.Vick

SS M. Fransoso - Maine...same here, consistent over 4 years. Very good speed, contact and eye

SS Jeff Kemp - Radford...was drafted last year in round 31, had an even better SR season. Some light speed/power

OF Ben McQuon - Campbell...crazy speed, 54 SBs with a .911 OPS (.443 OBP), worth a shot

1B/C R.Huck - Western Kentuck...did nothing his first 3 seasons, then out of nowhere had a monster SR season with 16 HRs. Who knows, maybe he figured something out. Good enough to find out with a 30+ round pick
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Jun 05, 2013 2:47 pm

I had a couple of position players that I held back from the above list.. They are:

Jan Hernandez 6'3" 195 pound SS out of the Carlos Beltran Academy of do nothing but think baseball, eat baseball and play baseball....oh did I mention.. this kid is all about baseball?

Trey McClure 6'2" a 190 pound OF'er & Speed Merchant.. This kid has two speeds.. fast and faster.. I don't think he's related to D'Vone, but, I could be wrong...
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Jun 05, 2013 4:03 pm

Tondo wrote:I see the HS-hype is all go on here. Might consider this: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/dr ... s-produce/

Looks to me like te WAR-battle clearly goes to the College ranks.

Speaking of, here are my SR sleepers for day 3, only bats, will do the pitchers tomorrow:

SS Pat Blair - WForest...consistent OBP-machine with some speed. "young" SR (class 91)

OF Kanzler - Buffalo...nice power/speed combo, questionable eye

1B LB Dantzler - SCar...just had a monster season (born 91)

2B Denver Chavez - CalPoly...horrible MIF class, but this guy doesnt look worse than some top10 round MIF specs. Has some speed and gets on base

1B/3B George Roberts - Kent St. ....lacks speed/power but is just a good hitter to add. Next Sabourin?

SS John Murphy - Sacred Heart....consistent producer, improved every year, has speed ('91) = worth a shot

OF Chad Christensen - Nebraska...light speed and power, but a good hitter, was drafted in round 35 last season.

1B Cody Stubbs - UNC...was drafted in round 14 in 2011 out of JC but didnt sign, had a disappointing JR season adjusting to the ACC, but a monster SR season ('91)

3B Cal Towey - Baylor...consistent 4 year performer. Similar College totals to ex-teammate and last year's 11th rounder L.Vick

SS M. Fransoso - Maine...same here, consistent over 4 years. Very good speed, contact and eye

SS Jeff Kemp - Radford...was drafted last year in round 31, had an even better SR season. Some light speed/power

OF Ben McQuon - Campbell...crazy speed, 54 SBs with a .911 OPS (.443 OBP), worth a shot

1B/C R.Huck - Western Kentuck...did nothing his first 3 seasons, then out of nowhere had a monster SR season with 16 HRs. Who knows, maybe he figured something out. Good enough to find out with a 30+ round pick

Some interesting stuff there (BA) for sure.

Btw, I'll recommend Luke Farrell 6'6 200 Sr Northwestern. He hits 88-90 FB but might pick up a few ticks as a RHRP. He's certainly a pitch ability guy. I read one site that says his off speed stuff is ML caliber. I can't say, I have seen very little of him but I think he'd be a solid 10th round underslot signing. Btw, his dad is John Farrell of the BoSox.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby indians1 » Wed Jun 05, 2013 8:54 pm

I know Geronimo thinks i am a negative indians fan and is a half glass empty guy but at some point we have to ask, "Why can't the indians develop a starting pitcher that can challenge for the #1 or #2 spot in the rotation?"

We don't have to go over the mirabelli drafts again because they speak for themselves. Brad Grant? - he has been better, but is he good enough for a small market team that can't afford miss after miss.

He took over in 2008 and he has had 5 drafts. What impact major league talent has he produced? Is it good enough to say Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall have made it to the majors? They haven't made an impact and Kipnis is playing like he did the 2nd half of last year vs. the first half. He is a .240 hitter right now. A guy that is considered a cornerstone player going forward. Maybe next year is the year he breaks out, but you have to ask, is it just drafting wrong or is there something wrong with development of these players?

The indians have been more aggressive with their drafting (especially with power arms) and how much better has that turned out?

How excited were we when after the drafts when we looked at trey Haley (a guy compared to clay bucholtz), we drafted tj house, bryce stowell, dillon Howard, (even alex white and drew pomeranz), Dillon Howard is somewhere in another universe ( a guy that was thought of that could move fast through the system). We paid more for those guys along with alex lavisky, tony wolters, and i know i am missing some others.

I have to ask, whatever looks good on draft day, are we setting ourselves for major disappointment 2 and 3 years down the line when these guys flame out?

I don't think i am asking a ridiculous question. You look at in 5 years of drafting too we missed out on chris sale and shelby miller and we took a lefty and a power righty those years. Our talent evaluation was wrong. Small market teams can't make those mistakes.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BrianM » Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:15 pm

^ I still wont consider Chris Sale better than Pomeranz yet. Apparently Drew's change-up has gotten a lot better and I still think Sale could have a career ending injury within the next couple years. However, he would look pretty darn good in our rotation right now.

Anyway....

I would like to see all of you knowledgeable IBI scouts try to predict our 3-10 picks sometime in the next couple days. Everyone has listed a lot of players and I would be curious to see if anyone could pick a couple correctly. Everyone could pick three different picks for each round considering the draft is often quite the mystery. Most of you seem to know your stuff, so it should be interesting.

Or everyone could just select the guys they would have taken after the draft (trying to take singing bonuses into account), and come back to it in a couple years and see who selected the most prospects.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:43 pm

BrianM wrote:^ I still wont consider Chris Sale better than Pomeranz yet. Apparently Drew's change-up has gotten a lot better and I still think Sale could have a career ending injury within the next couple years. However, he would look pretty darn good in our rotation right now.

Anyway....

I would like to see all of you knowledgeable IBI scouts try to predict our 3-10 picks sometime in the next couple days. Everyone has listed a lot of players and I would be curious to see if anyone could pick a couple correctly. Everyone could pick three different picks for each round considering the draft is often quite the mystery. Most of you seem to know your stuff, so it should be interesting.

Or everyone could just select the guys they would have taken after the draft (trying to take singing bonuses into account), and come back to it in a couple years and see who selected the most prospects.

Interesting proposal for sure. I consider myself more a somewhat knowledgable casual fan than a scout. But I'll try to throw out some names I think they will (or at least should, IMHO) consider for the Indians 1st 10 picks (rds 1-11).
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:50 pm

indians1 wrote:I know Geronimo thinks i am a negative indians fan... can't afford miss after miss.

He took ... Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall... is it just drafting wrong or is there something wrong with development of these players?

The indians have been more aggressive with their drafting (especially with power arms) and how much better has that turned out?

I am asking a ridiculous question....
I've taken some license to crop out some of the content.. This is done to focus on the meat of the argument presented...

-No.. you're not a negative Indians fan.. that would be redundant...

-By definition, missing on players '..pick after pick after pic..", beit Mirabelli or Grant or Luhnow, is part of the program as far as drafting and developing 16 through 21 year old kids.. Even the best of the best teams (let's say Minnesota or St Louis) have 1 guy who succeeds for every 24 who don't... The difference between one team's success and another's failure could be in the scouting.. it could be in the development, or, imho, it's in the kid. Just like everybody can't write in a style that invites positive responses and numerous kudos, you have a few like me that come off as a condescending and a pompous ass**le... Then there there those of us who like it that way..

-Their development isn't complete. It appears that Kipnis is a notch or two ahead of Chiz. Lonnie has a whopping 450 AB's at the major league level. His biggest issue is strike zone pitch recognition, especially with two strikes. Even so, he still managed to post a career triple slash line of .250/.286/.406.. not great, but, it's clear: He doesn't walk. He's shown in 2012 that he was starting to get it & he's raking in Columbus.. His development learning curve is moving back into an upward swing. He should be back soon.. perhaps to stay?.. Kipnis is growing into his role. His numbers say he's getting it some of the time, not all of the time. Will he improve..Probably. Is it possible he'll regress?.. maybe, but, I don't think there are more than a handful of 2B's in MLB w/ less than 1000 AB"s that are better than him ..

-Aggressively projecting what a 19 year old kid is going to become w/r to baseball and the talent to play the game has one clear & undeniable truth about it: You're going to be wrong ten times as many times as you are right.. That's why there are 40 picks, IFA"s and FA's. The Indians get about 100 new guys every year, and maybe, JUST maybe 2 might become major league regulars. That would be considered a BUMPER CROP!!!! (as opposed to Chris Perez whose crop is from an entire different part of the horticultural world...)

-Yes, your question is ridiculous from the standpoint of stating that Chris Sale and Shelby Miller could have been drafted by the Indians and weren't.. with the implied: "..see how stupid our talent evaluators really are..." Couldn't they see how these two guys were going to become what they have become?.. The answer.. is no.. they didn't.

comments?
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:57 pm

BrianM wrote:^ I still wont consider Chris Sale better than Pomeranz yet. Apparently Drew's change-up has gotten a lot better and I still think Sale could have a career ending injury within the next couple years. However, he would look pretty darn good in our rotation right now.

Anyway....

I would like to see all of you knowledgeable IBI scouts try to predict our 3-10 picks sometime in the next couple days. Everyone has listed a lot of players and I would be curious to see if anyone could pick a couple correctly. Everyone could pick three different picks for each round considering the draft is often quite the mystery. Most of you seem to know your stuff, so it should be interesting.

Or everyone could just select the guys they would have taken after the draft (trying to take singing bonuses into account), and come back to it in a couple years and see who selected the most prospects.


In three days, the nine or so pages on this thread will become a record that can be held for posterity...or until the server archive for the database screws up rendering the history... well, history... There will be names and lists and comments and links that define who said what about this draft. In three years, then Indians1's comment can be evaluated for projecting the future results from another Brad Grant Draft. IN short, the record exists.. it will just take a little Tony/Jim/Andrew/Steve/Jeff/Arthur/Charlie/yada/yada Elbow Grease to GLEAN the information from these many postings..

T.B.H... this sounds a LOT like a NATHAN KEMP kinda job...
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:48 am

John Sickels of minorleagueball.com has produced his top 50 pitchers and top 50 hitters lists. Interestingly, he has Colin Moran as only the 6th best hitter in the draft. Check it out below.

Here's the link for both lists...

Hitters...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/5 ... raft-board

Pitchers...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/5 ... raft-board
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:29 am

Some traction seems to be gaining w/r to the Astros, Cubs and Rockies looking at "under slot" signings for their early round selections (it's that or an aversion to dealing with Scott Boras). Sounds almost surreal, but, could the Indians be presented with the choice of both Appel and Gray when it's their turn to pick at #5? Six weeks ago.. no chance.. Six days ago.. not gonna happen.. Six hours ago.. very unlikely.. Six minutes ago.. well.. who knows...
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:23 am

I think every team at the top will be looking at underslot deals no real surprise there. Lets face it, teams that are picking that high generally have poor farm systems and have to consider spreading the wealth in order to supplement the system with numerous (ideally) talents.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a number of guys slide bc of their bonus demands. That happens every yr, it will force a few guys down, which actually helps the Tribe. There should be a few better talents on the board than expected.

Overall, I expect the Tribe to make several aggressive picks but also keep it balanced with some upside college arms along the way. Just my expectations here, I have heard nothing with this regard.

To build on BrianM's idea... I think I will give my wife a crack at it too, she knows NOTHING about baseball. I'll give her a list of 5 players and ask her to choose 1 BY NAME ONLY, just to see how much of a science this really is. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if she did better than most of us.

I'm going to try to post my top 10 Indians picks before the draft starts but if I miss it... I'll select Clint Frazier at 5 and then build the rest of the top ten tonight / tomorrow.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:33 am

Here's a link to Perfect Games top 100 College Seniors...

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vie ... ticle=8586

I expect to see the Tribe nab a few of these guys.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GoTribe028 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:14 am

Ryan over on LGT posted this earlier this morning

http://www.letsgotribe.com/2013/6/6/440 ... ran-in-his

5. CLEVELAND INDIANS: Unless one of the big three drops, Cleveland will choose between Moran and Frazier. The Indians usually prefer college players, but Frazier seems to be gaining steam here. Meadows is another possibility, with Shipley a longshot.

PROJECTED PICK: Colin Moran.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Braden Shipley/2.0: Colin Moran/3.0: Moran)
Follow me on Twitter @GoTribe028 for useless and random tweets.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BrianM » Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:53 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:To build on BrianM's idea... I think I will give my wife a crack at it too, she knows NOTHING about baseball. I'll give her a list of 5 players and ask her to choose 1 BY NAME ONLY, just to see how much of a science this really is. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if she did better than most of us.


Ha. not a bad idea. It seems like the more college basketball I watch in a given year, the worse my tournament bracket ends up being. When I was a kid and new nothing about the teams in the tourny, I used to kill my dad's office pool.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:47 pm

It looks like it's going to be down to Clint Frazier and Colin Moran for the Indians. I've never bought the underslot idea from any of the teams ahead of the Indians; none of them have the extra picks to really make the best use of it and you're exposing yourself to a lot of risk b/c you don't know who'll be there in later rounds for you, particularly b/c the top teams don't have that many picks.

I normally never like the draft and sign the guy that fell due to bonus demands thing. Normally, that means you're taking and overpaying the prospect b/c no other scouts thought the player was worth what he was asking for in a signing bonus (otherwise they'd have drafted him earlier).

I expect the first few picks to go as planned in the mocks. Gray/Appel, or Appel/Gray going #1 and #2 (I think Appel is the better choice). I guess people like Kris Bryant at 3, though I think he's overrated. Kohl Stewart to the Twins at #4 (also seems a bit high to me). I think Clint Frazier would be a great addition to the organization and will be disappointed with Moran.

I think the Indians will have the chance to take some good upside guys in the 3rd and 4th rounds, too. Going off what I saw this summer, there'll be some opportunities to get guys that could be 1st round caliber talents, not that I expect the Indians to take guys I like.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby criznit2009 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 3:10 pm

Hey OB and Rocky - thanks for your interest in this and providing some stellar info/links/insight/etc.

I obviously do not follow the amateurs like I do the pro's when it comes to baseball but feel fairly versed in this years draft crop - especially to how it pretains to the indians.

If Appel or Gray (both?? HA) are there at #5 - Boom done. any questions?

Frazier is better than Moran. If Stewart is there you take him, unless See above.

Cubs prolly have the easiest choice at #2. Either Appel or Gray. Its possible Appel or Gray could slip a little but not past the 4 pick 95% of the time, and definitely not past 5.

So if its not A or G I really hope its Frazier.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 06, 2013 3:14 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:It looks like it's going to be down to Clint Frazier and Colin Moran for the Indians. I've never bought the underslot idea from any of the teams ahead of the Indians; none of them have the extra picks to really make the best use of it and you're exposing yourself to a lot of risk b/c you don't know who'll be there in later rounds for you, particularly b/c the top teams don't have that many picks.

I normally never like the draft and sign the guy that fell due to bonus demands thing. Normally, that means you're taking and overpaying the prospect b/c no other scouts thought the player was worth what he was asking for in a signing bonus (otherwise they'd have drafted him earlier).

I expect the first few picks to go as planned in the mocks. Gray/Appel, or Appel/Gray going #1 and #2 (I think Appel is the better choice). I guess people like Kris Bryant at 3, though I think he's overrated. Kohl Stewart to the Twins at #4 (also seems a bit high to me). I think Clint Frazier would be a great addition to the organization and will be disappointed with Moran.

I think the Indians will have the chance to take some good upside guys in the 3rd and 4th rounds, too. Going off what I saw this summer, there'll be some opportunities to get guys that could be 1st round caliber talents, not that I expect the Indians to take guys I like.

I agree, I think the Tribe can land guys rds 3-5 with late 1st / 2nd round talent. It's funny I usually compare several top 100 / top 500 to get a better feel of the guys and this yr it's pretty much all over the place outside the top 20-25 guys.

Clint Frazier is a premium talent. He's about a safe pick as possible for a HS. He's on the fringe of elite for this draft class, IMHO. Developmentally, I think he plays right now offensively and defensively at Lake County relatively with ease. Point being, he's an advanced HS that should perform. I love the work ethic and overall potential from Frazier at 5. He's rated anywhere from 2-7 depending on where you look. Personally, I have him at 4 but I expect he will be the pick by the Tribe tonight. I project Frazier with the potential to hit... .285 BA 20-25 hrs 30-35 dbls 20-25 sb. I think he could stay in CF, but may move to RF.

I'm not a Colin Moran fan, but if he's the pick...I will be a bit disappointed, but I'll cheer him on anyway. If he is the pick lets hope he's an underslot signing, which gives the Tribe the ability to sign a few other talents later.

Honestly, I expect Frazier at 5 and several college players / pitchers tomorrow. I believe the Tribe will finish out Saturday with a relatively good mix of safe college pks and HS pks.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Jun 06, 2013 3:33 pm

It's pretty simple to say.. follow the mocks..take the player who's next on the consensus list..etc.. etc..The "fun" part of a draft is taking a look at various scenarios that don't follow the well worn rut..

What if the Stros eschew Appel or Gray and go with Moran?..

What if the Rockies take Dom Smith instead of Kris Bryant?..

What if the Twins decide they have to have Peterson?..

Then.. what does the Indians FO do?. roll the dice?. stay the course?. panic?. yeah.. Let's see some PANIC !!...

(tongue in cheek)..

In a perfect Wahoo World.. the Adderall Action drops Gray to the Indians.. who snatch him up at # 5... He's so grateful, he signs an under slot deal for $ 2.5 MM.. and heads directly to Akron.. When pick # 79 comes around, the medicals for Sean Manaea have scared off everyone, so the Indians take him.. He's so grateful for finally being picked, he signs the same contract Gray signed...

The Indians net two stud SP's, a lefty and a righty... that is.. the next CC and Rocket..

You can dream??????? or not....
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 06, 2013 3:40 pm

I think we will see the Tribe come out go this draft with a cpl guys that we fans say, "I'm surprised they were able to get...."
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:07 pm

I'm surprised at a couple of those top 50 lists. Ben Lively made the top 50 pitchers list. My mancrush, Stuart Turner, is rated above Zane Evans. I heart Stuart Turner but Evans is a better hitter. If you look at the lists you realize that this is quite a deep draft. Lots of talent out there. Let's clean up Grant!
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:21 pm

criznit2009 wrote:If Appel or Gray (both?? HA) are there at #5 - Boom done. any questions?


Not necessarily. If you take Gray or Appel at 5 it's because they fell because of bonus demands, meaning if you take them you're going to have to eat up most of your draft budget. So your draft would probably be Gray or Appel and a lot of college seniors in later rounds, with maybe a decent prospect or two mixed in there.

If you're the Indians and think the 3rd and 4th rounds are enticing, then you may pass on Gray or Appel. If you don't like those rounds, absolutely take Gray or Appel. I believe the 3rd and 4th rounds have some good quality prospects that are potential 1st round caliber talents. Off the top of my head, this list includes (but is not limited to);

Jordan Sheffield (RHP, TN), Cavan Biggio (2B, TX), Tyler Skulina (RHP, OH), Clinton Hollon (RHP, KY), Jan Hernandez (INF, PR), Brett Morales (RHP, FL), Ivan Wilson (OF, LA), Justin Williams (OF, LA). I can run off some issues with all of those prospects, but I think they are all interesting. Jordan Sheffield is particularly interesting. If he's willing to skip college while he's recovering from TJ surgery, that's potentially a good opportunity to get a legit 1st round talent in later rounds.

criznit2009 wrote:
Frazier is better than Moran. If Stewart is there you take him, unless See above.


I would take Clint Frazier over Kohl Stewart. I think Frazier is a top 3 overall kind of talent, whereas Stewart is a later-single digits overall talent.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:32 pm

Rocky55 wrote:I'm surprised at a couple of those top 50 lists. Ben Lively made the top 50 pitchers list. My mancrush, Stuart Turner, is rated above Zane Evans. I heart Stuart Turner but Evans is a better hitter. If you look at the lists you realize that this is quite a deep draft. Lots of talent out there. Let's clean up Grant!

I agree, I've spent about 3 weeks cramming on all of these guys and there is qlty. It think it's a misnomer that there is not depth. There is depth but it's not at the top of the draft, which lowers the qlty of the draft. That said some qlty major leaguers will come out of this draft (rounds 3-5).
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:47 pm

Ryon Healy's not getting much play, at least in the lists & mocks. Klima loves the guy.I'm thinking he's gone by 79 but that's another possibilty. BTW, Klima doesn't think much of Appel's slider. Looked okay to me but whaddawino. Here's something on their duel:

http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2013/05/31/healy-appel

Note the Gausman reference; he got smacked around like a punch drunk sparring partner after his promotion. I think they rushed him.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 6:12 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:I'm surprised at a couple of those top 50 lists. Ben Lively made the top 50 pitchers list. My mancrush, Stuart Turner, is rated above Zane Evans. I heart Stuart Turner but Evans is a better hitter. If you look at the lists you realize that this is quite a deep draft. Lots of talent out there. Let's clean up Grant!

I agree, I've spent about 3 weeks cramming on all of these guys and there is qlty. It think it's a misnomer that there is not depth. There is depth but it's not at the top of the draft, which lowers the qlty of the draft. That said some qlty major leaguers will come out of this draft (rounds 3-5).

Lots of depth at catcher especially, HS & college. We should be able to get one if they think we need one.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Thu Jun 06, 2013 6:49 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Here's a link to Perfect Games top 100 College Seniors...

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vie ... ticle=8586

I expect to see the Tribe nab a few of these guys.


Nice list and kinf od spoils mine some, but I still have some hidden SR late round "gems" :biggrin

This really seems to be an incredibly deep draft, there will be some nice SR talent around deep into day 3
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:03 pm

Agree w/ Rocky lots depth at C. I think the Tribe will grab one top 10.

I'm calling Frazier at 5. I'll try to post my entire first 10 picks tonight / tomorrow. Taking some summer classes so keeping me really busy.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:06 pm

Frazier's getting a lot of noise re the Tribe's pick. I hope they're right.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:17 pm

Houston effed up.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:20 pm

Things are opening up.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:22 pm

Guess the Adderall news cost Gray some. Could it also explain his improvement?
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby JP_Frost » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:25 pm

No real surprises so far. The tope 3 went top 3, maybe the order was a little different than expected.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:27 pm

Just get Frazier past Minn.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BuddyLee » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:32 pm

We're about to find out a lot more about the philosophy of this front office and scouting staff. Frazier would be the bold pick and Moran is the boring pick. You guys have me hyped up on Frazier, so I'm really hoping for him now.
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:36 pm

Wow! MLB.com's draft coverage didn't even talk about Frazier...
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:36 pm

Nice.

When was the last time a consensus pick on here ended up being drafted by the Indians?

Very good start
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Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BuddyLee » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:38 pm

Did Bud Selig say he is a third baseman??? I'm assuming he screwed up again?
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