Indians Prospect Insider - Covering the Cleveland Indians from the Minors to the Big Leagues

2014 Prospect Rankings

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 02, 2013 11:10 am

The 2014 prospect rankings have started to come out. Baseball Prospectus released their Tribe one last week.


1. SS Francisco Lindor
2. OF Clint Frazier
3. CF Tyler Naquin
4. RHP Cody Anderson
5. C Francisco Mejia
6. 2B Jose Ramirez
7. SS Ronny Rodriguez
8. SS Dorssys Paulino
9. 2B Joe Wendle
10.RHP Dace Kime


Their top 10 25 and under list:

1. Francisco Lindor
2. Clint Frazier
3. Danny Salazar
4. Tyler Naquin
5. Cody Anderson
6. Trevor Bauer
7. Francisco Mejia
8. Jose Ramirez
9. Ronny Rodriguez
10.Dorssys Paulino

A Parting Thought: The farm as a whole isn’t very impressive, as the depth stops near the surface and the ceilings of the downlist prospects don’t offer much to dream on. But the top layer of talent can be game changers, middle-of-the-diamond players with all-star potential who can alter the future of a franchise if they reach their potential.


They did also list Anthony Santander, Erik Gonzalez, and Nellie Rodriguez as "Prospects on the Rise".

Also listed Jesus Aguilar, CC Lee, and Shawn Armstrong as "Factors on the Farm" guys. They aren't sold on Aguilar's hit tool which is what kept him off their top 10 list.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby martyinnewyork » Mon Dec 02, 2013 5:36 pm

How can Bauer make the second list but not the first? Does he no longer qualify as a prospect?
martyinnewyork
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:16 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 02, 2013 5:58 pm

martyinnewyork wrote:How can Bauer make the second list but not the first? Does he no longer qualify as a prospect?


Correct, by Baseball Prospectus' standards, Bauer no longer qualifies as a prospect. Same reason Salazar made the 2nd list and not the 1st.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 1:01 am

Top Prospect Alert and Prospect 361 have also posted their Tribe lists (top 10 and top 20 respectfully).
I'll try to post the names in the next few days....
MadThinker88
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1738
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:48 am
Location: Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby BrianM » Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:42 pm

Surprised to see Naquin at number 3. I hope that's more of a statement towards their belief he can be a good major leaguer, rather than the mediocrity of the rest of our system.

The rest of that list seems pretty accurate to me with a few minor exceptions. Paulino and RRod could be flip flopped, and Naquin should probably be below all of Anderson, Meija, Ramirez, and Paulino. All the players on the list would probably all fall in my personal top 12-13 list.

I had Moncrief ahead of Naquin in the last top 20 list I made, and I plan on keeping it that way.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Mitch Brown show up on BA's top 10 list. I think he would still crack my top 10, even with his disaster of a year. Most draft and prospect people were very high on him, and if this year was a product of injury, I see no reason to push him down so far.

Bauer would also still crack my top 5. He could fall out of my top 20 by the end of May though if he does not improve over the winter.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby daingean » Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:35 am

I think the fact the Naquin hit double digits in homers (barely) propelled him up a bit. That homer total allows me to project him as more than a fourth OF (which is where I had him coming into the year) as it demonstrates he's more than an Alex Cole or Miguel Dilone. Cutting down on the K's certainly has to be on his agenda for next year.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:16 am

BrianM wrote:Surprised to see Naquin at number 3. I hope that's more of a statement towards their belief he can be a good major leaguer, rather than the mediocrity of the rest of our system.

The rest of that list seems pretty accurate to me with a few minor exceptions. Paulino and RRod could be flip flopped, and Naquin should probably be below all of Anderson, Meija, Ramirez, and Paulino. All the players on the list would probably all fall in my personal top 12-13 list.

I had Moncrief ahead of Naquin in the last top 20 list I made, and I plan on keeping it that way.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Mitch Brown show up on BA's top 10 list. I think he would still crack my top 10, even with his disaster of a year. Most draft and prospect people were very high on him, and if this year was a product of injury, I see no reason to push him down so far.

Bauer would also still crack my top 5. He could fall out of my top 20 by the end of May though if he does not improve over the winter.


They were really impressed with his season. Said they weren't believers in him before the season but to this point has proved people wrong. Here's his strengths according to BP:

"The glove has really improved; plays solid-average; arm is true weapon; plus-plus arm strength; good athlete; runs well; swing has improved; shows good bat speed and line-drive ability."

They still think the power is below average (no shock) and worry his bat won't play enough (too many swings and misses). They did compare him to Michael Brantley though as a reasonable fantasy comp (for what it's worth).


As far as Moncrief....Parks had this to say in the comments:

"He's okay. He can hit a little and has pop for the minors. But I don't think its a mistake to exclude a 25-years-old corner outfielder with a bat that doesn't project to average at the major league level. I can see him as a Factor on the farm; a player that can contribute to the major league team in 2014. But I don't see a top ten prospect."
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby BrianM » Mon Dec 09, 2013 2:15 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
BrianM wrote:Surprised to see Naquin at number 3. I hope that's more of a statement towards their belief he can be a good major leaguer, rather than the mediocrity of the rest of our system.

The rest of that list seems pretty accurate to me with a few minor exceptions. Paulino and RRod could be flip flopped, and Naquin should probably be below all of Anderson, Meija, Ramirez, and Paulino. All the players on the list would probably all fall in my personal top 12-13 list.

I had Moncrief ahead of Naquin in the last top 20 list I made, and I plan on keeping it that way.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Mitch Brown show up on BA's top 10 list. I think he would still crack my top 10, even with his disaster of a year. Most draft and prospect people were very high on him, and if this year was a product of injury, I see no reason to push him down so far.

Bauer would also still crack my top 5. He could fall out of my top 20 by the end of May though if he does not improve over the winter.


They were really impressed with his season. Said they weren't believers in him before the season but to this point has proved people wrong. Here's his strengths according to BP:

"The glove has really improved; plays solid-average; arm is true weapon; plus-plus arm strength; good athlete; runs well; swing has improved; shows good bat speed and line-drive ability."

They still think the power is below average (no shock) and worry his bat won't play enough (too many swings and misses). They did compare him to Michael Brantley though as a reasonable fantasy comp (for what it's worth).


As far as Moncrief....Parks had this to say in the comments:

"He's okay. He can hit a little and has pop for the minors. But I don't think its a mistake to exclude a 25-years-old corner outfielder with a bat that doesn't project to average at the major league level. I can see him as a Factor on the farm; a player that can contribute to the major league team in 2014. But I don't see a top ten prospect."


Thanks for the info.

I've watched Moncrief a couple time. He needs to lose weight, thats for sure, but the age thing does not bother me at all. He has progressed just like we would want any other top prospect to considering his experience.

I had done a project and found out how our top prospects performed against the top pitchers in their respective leagues. I took all pitchers who were listed in the BA's top 20 league prospect lists and looked up the results against them for Moncrief, Aguilar, Ramirez, RRod, Lindor, & Naquin. The sample size was surprisingly high, as everyone but Lindor and Naquin had around 50 AB's against the competition. RRod and Ramirez performed fairly well and had averages around .270-.280 against the top guys. Aguilar underpeformed and had an average around .220 in over 60 ab's. Moncrief on the other hand, had almost 60 ab's as well and hit around .420 with a nice handful of XBH against the leagues best (I dont remember the exact number, I did this about 6 weeks ago).

I don't really know how significant these numbers really are. They could mean nothing. They are interesting though.

Moncrief's five tool potential still holds a lot of value to me, regardless of age. The fact they he managed to improve even more during his first stint in AA is also very encouraging.

I have seen Moncrief play, though I don't watch many games like other people do. I have followed Minor League prospects and their numbers for a long time though. Strikeouts have always been a very telling stat when trying to predict a players future. Plate discipline is another very telling factor. Naquin still seems like a guy who will fall short of becoming much more than a Trevor Crowe type player if he can't cut the k's. If his value is based on his potential to put up close to a .300 BA, how is he supposed to reach his potential if hes striking out 30% of the time? A massive difference between Naquin and Brantley is the plate discipline and K numbers they have shown early on. I've just seen very few top prospects who have had these type strikeout issues overcome them and become anything more than AAAA players. I've seen plenty of guys like Moncrief fail too, but at least he has shown the ability to improve and still holds more power potential than Naquin.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Mon Dec 09, 2013 11:46 pm

BrianM wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
BrianM wrote:Surprised to see Naquin at number 3. I hope that's more of a statement towards their belief he can be a good major leaguer, rather than the mediocrity of the rest of our system.

The rest of that list seems pretty accurate to me with a few minor exceptions. Paulino and RRod could be flip flopped, and Naquin should probably be below all of Anderson, Meija, Ramirez, and Paulino. All the players on the list would probably all fall in my personal top 12-13 list.

I had Moncrief ahead of Naquin in the last top 20 list I made, and I plan on keeping it that way.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Mitch Brown show up on BA's top 10 list. I think he would still crack my top 10, even with his disaster of a year. Most draft and prospect people were very high on him, and if this year was a product of injury, I see no reason to push him down so far.

Bauer would also still crack my top 5. He could fall out of my top 20 by the end of May though if he does not improve over the winter.


They were really impressed with his season. Said they weren't believers in him before the season but to this point has proved people wrong. Here's his strengths according to BP:

"The glove has really improved; plays solid-average; arm is true weapon; plus-plus arm strength; good athlete; runs well; swing has improved; shows good bat speed and line-drive ability."

They still think the power is below average (no shock) and worry his bat won't play enough (too many swings and misses). They did compare him to Michael Brantley though as a reasonable fantasy comp (for what it's worth).


As far as Moncrief....Parks had this to say in the comments:

"He's okay. He can hit a little and has pop for the minors. But I don't think its a mistake to exclude a 25-years-old corner outfielder with a bat that doesn't project to average at the major league level. I can see him as a Factor on the farm; a player that can contribute to the major league team in 2014. But I don't see a top ten prospect."


Thanks for the info.

I've watched Moncrief a couple time. He needs to lose weight, thats for sure, but the age thing does not bother me at all. He has progressed just like we would want any other top prospect to considering his experience.

I had done a project and found out how our top prospects performed against the top pitchers in their respective leagues. I took all pitchers who were listed in the BA's top 20 league prospect lists and looked up the results against them for Moncrief, Aguilar, Ramirez, RRod, Lindor, & Naquin. The sample size was surprisingly high, as everyone but Lindor and Naquin had around 50 AB's against the competition. RRod and Ramirez performed fairly well and had averages around .270-.280 against the top guys. Aguilar underpeformed and had an average around .220 in over 60 ab's. Moncrief on the other hand, had almost 60 ab's as well and hit around .420 with a nice handful of XBH against the leagues best (I dont remember the exact number, I did this about 6 weeks ago).

I don't really know how significant these numbers really are. They could mean nothing. They are interesting though.

Moncrief's five tool potential still holds a lot of value to me, regardless of age. The fact they he managed to improve even more during his first stint in AA is also very encouraging.

I have seen Moncrief play, though I don't watch many games like other people do. I have followed Minor League prospects and their numbers for a long time though. Strikeouts have always been a very telling stat when trying to predict a players future. Plate discipline is another very telling factor. Naquin still seems like a guy who will fall short of becoming much more than a Trevor Crowe type player if he can't cut the k's. If his value is based on his potential to put up close to a .300 BA, how is he supposed to reach his potential if hes striking out 30% of the time? A massive difference between Naquin and Brantley is the plate discipline and K numbers they have shown early on. I've just seen very few top prospects who have had these type strikeout issues overcome them and become anything more than AAAA players. I've seen plenty of guys like Moncrief fail too, but at least he has shown the ability to improve and still holds more power potential than Naquin.

I've never gotten the Brantley/Naquin comp either. Brantley never had the K's that Naquin has. Debating whom from the Brewers that were available at the time of the CC trade, the big attraction that Brantley held had mostly to do with the OBP. True, Brantley never walked much but he K'd even less. Naquin's a totally different player.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 12:57 am

Rocky55 wrote:
BrianM wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
BrianM wrote:Surprised to see Naquin at number 3. I hope that's more of a statement towards their belief he can be a good major leaguer, rather than the mediocrity of the rest of our system.

The rest of that list seems pretty accurate to me with a few minor exceptions. Paulino and RRod could be flip flopped, and Naquin should probably be below all of Anderson, Meija, Ramirez, and Paulino. All the players on the list would probably all fall in my personal top 12-13 list.

I had Moncrief ahead of Naquin in the last top 20 list I made, and I plan on keeping it that way.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Mitch Brown show up on BA's top 10 list. I think he would still crack my top 10, even with his disaster of a year. Most draft and prospect people were very high on him, and if this year was a product of injury, I see no reason to push him down so far.

Bauer would also still crack my top 5. He could fall out of my top 20 by the end of May though if he does not improve over the winter.


They were really impressed with his season. Said they weren't believers in him before the season but to this point has proved people wrong. Here's his strengths according to BP:

"The glove has really improved; plays solid-average; arm is true weapon; plus-plus arm strength; good athlete; runs well; swing has improved; shows good bat speed and line-drive ability."

They still think the power is below average (no shock) and worry his bat won't play enough (too many swings and misses). They did compare him to Michael Brantley though as a reasonable fantasy comp (for what it's worth).


As far as Moncrief....Parks had this to say in the comments:

"He's okay. He can hit a little and has pop for the minors. But I don't think its a mistake to exclude a 25-years-old corner outfielder with a bat that doesn't project to average at the major league level. I can see him as a Factor on the farm; a player that can contribute to the major league team in 2014. But I don't see a top ten prospect."


Thanks for the info.

I've watched Moncrief a couple time. He needs to lose weight, thats for sure, but the age thing does not bother me at all. He has progressed just like we would want any other top prospect to considering his experience.

I had done a project and found out how our top prospects performed against the top pitchers in their respective leagues. I took all pitchers who were listed in the BA's top 20 league prospect lists and looked up the results against them for Moncrief, Aguilar, Ramirez, RRod, Lindor, & Naquin. The sample size was surprisingly high, as everyone but Lindor and Naquin had around 50 AB's against the competition. RRod and Ramirez performed fairly well and had averages around .270-.280 against the top guys. Aguilar underpeformed and had an average around .220 in over 60 ab's. Moncrief on the other hand, had almost 60 ab's as well and hit around .420 with a nice handful of XBH against the leagues best (I dont remember the exact number, I did this about 6 weeks ago).

I don't really know how significant these numbers really are. They could mean nothing. They are interesting though.

Moncrief's five tool potential still holds a lot of value to me, regardless of age. The fact they he managed to improve even more during his first stint in AA is also very encouraging.

I have seen Moncrief play, though I don't watch many games like other people do. I have followed Minor League prospects and their numbers for a long time though. Strikeouts have always been a very telling stat when trying to predict a players future. Plate discipline is another very telling factor. Naquin still seems like a guy who will fall short of becoming much more than a Trevor Crowe type player if he can't cut the k's. If his value is based on his potential to put up close to a .300 BA, how is he supposed to reach his potential if hes striking out 30% of the time? A massive difference between Naquin and Brantley is the plate discipline and K numbers they have shown early on. I've just seen very few top prospects who have had these type strikeout issues overcome them and become anything more than AAAA players. I've seen plenty of guys like Moncrief fail too, but at least he has shown the ability to improve and still holds more power potential than Naquin.

I've never gotten the Brantley/Naquin comp either. Brantley never had the K's that Naquin has. Debating whom from the Brewers that were available at the time of the CC trade, the big attraction that Brantley held had mostly to do with the OBP. True, Brantley never walked much but he K'd even less. Naquin's a totally different player.


The Brantley-Naquin comp had to do with fantasyvalue. OBP and strikeouts don't go into fantasy (at least not most fantasy).

They were comping their avg, HR potential (or lack of) and SB potential at the major league level, not the overall package.



As far as Naquin's K's....definitely something he needs to improve on no question, but don't think it's the end of his ability. Wil Myers K'd over 22% of the time at AA and over 24% of the time at AAA...wouldn't call him a AAAA guy (at least not yet)...
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby BrianM » Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:18 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:
BrianM wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
BrianM wrote:Surprised to see Naquin at number 3. I hope that's more of a statement towards their belief he can be a good major leaguer, rather than the mediocrity of the rest of our system.

The rest of that list seems pretty accurate to me with a few minor exceptions. Paulino and RRod could be flip flopped, and Naquin should probably be below all of Anderson, Meija, Ramirez, and Paulino. All the players on the list would probably all fall in my personal top 12-13 list.

I had Moncrief ahead of Naquin in the last top 20 list I made, and I plan on keeping it that way.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Mitch Brown show up on BA's top 10 list. I think he would still crack my top 10, even with his disaster of a year. Most draft and prospect people were very high on him, and if this year was a product of injury, I see no reason to push him down so far.

Bauer would also still crack my top 5. He could fall out of my top 20 by the end of May though if he does not improve over the winter.


They were really impressed with his season. Said they weren't believers in him before the season but to this point has proved people wrong. Here's his strengths according to BP:

"The glove has really improved; plays solid-average; arm is true weapon; plus-plus arm strength; good athlete; runs well; swing has improved; shows good bat speed and line-drive ability."

They still think the power is below average (no shock) and worry his bat won't play enough (too many swings and misses). They did compare him to Michael Brantley though as a reasonable fantasy comp (for what it's worth).


As far as Moncrief....Parks had this to say in the comments:

"He's okay. He can hit a little and has pop for the minors. But I don't think its a mistake to exclude a 25-years-old corner outfielder with a bat that doesn't project to average at the major league level. I can see him as a Factor on the farm; a player that can contribute to the major league team in 2014. But I don't see a top ten prospect."


Thanks for the info.

I've watched Moncrief a couple time. He needs to lose weight, thats for sure, but the age thing does not bother me at all. He has progressed just like we would want any other top prospect to considering his experience.

I had done a project and found out how our top prospects performed against the top pitchers in their respective leagues. I took all pitchers who were listed in the BA's top 20 league prospect lists and looked up the results against them for Moncrief, Aguilar, Ramirez, RRod, Lindor, & Naquin. The sample size was surprisingly high, as everyone but Lindor and Naquin had around 50 AB's against the competition. RRod and Ramirez performed fairly well and had averages around .270-.280 against the top guys. Aguilar underpeformed and had an average around .220 in over 60 ab's. Moncrief on the other hand, had almost 60 ab's as well and hit around .420 with a nice handful of XBH against the leagues best (I dont remember the exact number, I did this about 6 weeks ago).

I don't really know how significant these numbers really are. They could mean nothing. They are interesting though.

Moncrief's five tool potential still holds a lot of value to me, regardless of age. The fact they he managed to improve even more during his first stint in AA is also very encouraging.

I have seen Moncrief play, though I don't watch many games like other people do. I have followed Minor League prospects and their numbers for a long time though. Strikeouts have always been a very telling stat when trying to predict a players future. Plate discipline is another very telling factor. Naquin still seems like a guy who will fall short of becoming much more than a Trevor Crowe type player if he can't cut the k's. If his value is based on his potential to put up close to a .300 BA, how is he supposed to reach his potential if hes striking out 30% of the time? A massive difference between Naquin and Brantley is the plate discipline and K numbers they have shown early on. I've just seen very few top prospects who have had these type strikeout issues overcome them and become anything more than AAAA players. I've seen plenty of guys like Moncrief fail too, but at least he has shown the ability to improve and still holds more power potential than Naquin.

I've never gotten the Brantley/Naquin comp either. Brantley never had the K's that Naquin has. Debating whom from the Brewers that were available at the time of the CC trade, the big attraction that Brantley held had mostly to do with the OBP. True, Brantley never walked much but he K'd even less. Naquin's a totally different player.


The Brantley-Naquin comp had to do with fantasyvalue. OBP and strikeouts don't go into fantasy (at least not most fantasy).

They were comping their avg, HR potential (or lack of) and SB potential at the major league level, not the overall package.



As far as Naquin's K's....definitely something he needs to improve on no question, but don't think it's the end of his ability. Wil Myers K'd over 22% of the time at AA and over 24% of the time at AAA...wouldn't call him a AAAA guy (at least not yet)...


I should have elaborated in my original post because, yes, there are plenty of prospects that strike out a lot, but the obvious difference between someone like Myers and Naquin is the power production. As I said, Naquin's value is based mostly on his potential hit tool and a high batting average. He just wont be able to achieve his perceived if he can't cut the K totals.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 8:22 pm

BrianM wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:The Brantley-Naquin comp had to do with fantasyvalue. OBP and strikeouts don't go into fantasy (at least not most fantasy).

They were comping their avg, HR potential (or lack of) and SB potential at the major league level, not the overall package.



As far as Naquin's K's....definitely something he needs to improve on no question, but don't think it's the end of his ability. Wil Myers K'd over 22% of the time at AA and over 24% of the time at AAA...wouldn't call him a AAAA guy (at least not yet)...


I should have elaborated in my original post because, yes, there are plenty of prospects that strike out a lot, but the obvious difference between someone like Myers and Naquin is the power production. As I said, Naquin's value is based mostly on his potential hit tool and a high batting average. He just wont be able to achieve his perceived if he can't cut the K totals.


Disagree here. Naquin's value isn't just from potential for high average, it's about OBP with him. Walked over 8% of the time this year at Carolina. That's not great but if he can maintain that he'll be fine. OBP was .345, wOBA was .354, and wRC+ was 115. All numbers I'd take at the big league level should he be able to keep that up (no sure thing obviously).

Consider Bourn strikes out over 20% of the time and has a walk rate of 8.5%....sure better defensively and more speed but people seem to like him as a leadoff hitter despite his high K-rate (and career OBP under .340)...
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 11:31 pm

I never saw Naquin as a leadoff hitter, more likely 6th or 7th. He's contemporary with Lindor & I'm guessing Lindor moves into the leadoff spot for the big club once he's acclimated. Lindor is all about OB & is a smart base runner albeit not a base stealer.

Naquin is not a power guy so he'd better cut down on the K's if he wants to be a regular. Having 134 K's in 528 AB's like he did last year won't cut it for a guy with minimal power. Now if he could jump the HR's from 10 to 20 we could live with the K rate. He get more respect from the pitchers & the BB rate might go up as well. Hope it happens.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:28 am

Rocky55 wrote:I never saw Naquin as a leadoff hitter, more likely 6th or 7th. He's contemporary with Lindor & I'm guessing Lindor moves into the leadoff spot for the big club once he's acclimated. Lindor is all about OB & is a smart base runner albeit not a base stealer.

Naquin is not a power guy so he'd better cut down on the K's if he wants to be a regular. Having 134 K's in 528 AB's like he did last year won't cut it for a guy with minimal power. Now if he could jump the HR's from 10 to 20 we could live with the K rate. He get more respect from the pitchers & the BB rate might go up as well. Hope it happens.


Naquin's bat fits in the leadoff or 3-hole. That's where his value lies. Can get on base (though not elite there). Somewhat comparable to DeJesus who was a solid leadoff guy.

And again, the K-rate is comparable to Bourn who has no power and hits leadoff. Don't think the K-rate is an issue..if it doesn't go even higher as he moves up the ladder (which may or may not happen)...

Strikeouts in the leadoff spot don't hurt you at all either.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:06 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:I never saw Naquin as a leadoff hitter, more likely 6th or 7th. He's contemporary with Lindor & I'm guessing Lindor moves into the leadoff spot for the big club once he's acclimated. Lindor is all about OB & is a smart base runner albeit not a base stealer.

Naquin is not a power guy so he'd better cut down on the K's if he wants to be a regular. Having 134 K's in 528 AB's like he did last year won't cut it for a guy with minimal power. Now if he could jump the HR's from 10 to 20 we could live with the K rate. He get more respect from the pitchers & the BB rate might go up as well. Hope it happens.


Naquin's bat fits in the leadoff or 3-hole. That's where his value lies. Can get on base (though not elite there). Somewhat comparable to DeJesus who was a solid leadoff guy.

And again, the K-rate is comparable to Bourn who has no power and hits leadoff. Don't think the K-rate is an issue..if it doesn't go even higher as he moves up the ladder (which may or may not happen)...

Strikeouts in the leadoff spot don't hurt you at all either.

You really think that with Lindor & Naquin on the same team, Naquin will lead off? Agree to disagree. :cool
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:34 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:I never saw Naquin as a leadoff hitter, more likely 6th or 7th. He's contemporary with Lindor & I'm guessing Lindor moves into the leadoff spot for the big club once he's acclimated. Lindor is all about OB & is a smart base runner albeit not a base stealer.

Naquin is not a power guy so he'd better cut down on the K's if he wants to be a regular. Having 134 K's in 528 AB's like he did last year won't cut it for a guy with minimal power. Now if he could jump the HR's from 10 to 20 we could live with the K rate. He get more respect from the pitchers & the BB rate might go up as well. Hope it happens.


Naquin's bat fits in the leadoff or 3-hole. That's where his value lies. Can get on base (though not elite there). Somewhat comparable to DeJesus who was a solid leadoff guy.

And again, the K-rate is comparable to Bourn who has no power and hits leadoff. Don't think the K-rate is an issue..if it doesn't go even higher as he moves up the ladder (which may or may not happen)...

Strikeouts in the leadoff spot don't hurt you at all either.

You really think that with Lindor & Naquin on the same team, Naquin will lead off? Agree to disagree. :cool


For me it comes down to who has the higher OBP. Right now Lindor makes more sense but never know when they get to the majors. Could use them as your leadoff and 2-hole hitters too if both have solid OBPs. I also think Naquin's bat could fit in the 3 or 5 hole, similar to Brantley.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby OhioBaseball » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:35 pm

I see the Naquin/Bourn talk about the K's. Naquin is striking out vs. A-ball pitchers, and Bourn is striking out vs. MLB pitching. When Michael Bourn was in A ball (Low-A at 21), he had an 85/88 BB/K ratio in 510 AB's and he hit 5 HR, 14 3B and 20 2B. Naquin was 22 in High-A and was 41/112 in BB/K and only hit for modestly better power. There are some mediocre pitchers in A-ball, so anytime you see K's at a high rate vs. those guys there are issues.

Naquin was an all-average hitter at Texas A&M and he did not hit for much power. He began to swing for more power this year and he sacrificed average and contact to get more HR's. I'm sure he could have hit for +.300 if he slapped at the ball more and didn't try for as many extra bases. Regarding him being a good OBP guy, he only walked 41 times in nearly 500 AB's so I'm skeptical. He didn't walk much at Texas A&M, either. Naquin didn't even make the top 20 prospects in the Carolina League, which says something. There's only 8 teams in that league so it's a relatively easier list to make.

I've seen Naquin compared to David DeJesus. David DeJesus demonstrated excellent contact numbers in the minor leagues, most often walking more than he struck out. I think Naquin has a ways to go before he reaches DeJesus-type performance as he's got far worse BB/K numbers suggesting he's got some holes in his swing (despite being tabbed as a "plus-plus" hitter by some on this site after the draft). I'm still scratching my head on the Naquin at 15th overall selection. The Indians really botched that draft.
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby daingean » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:43 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
For me it comes down to who has the higher OBP. Right now Lindor makes more sense but never know when they get to the majors. Could use them as your leadoff and 2-hole hitters too if both have solid OBPs. I also think Naquin's bat could fit in the 3 or 5 hole, similar to Brantley.


I'd be very concerned if TN was in the 3 or 5 hole. Just don't see him as a guy that can drive runners in from first base. If he's up there, I see him as a #2 but most likely an #8 or #9 unless he starts drawing walks more consistently.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:27 pm

daingean wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
For me it comes down to who has the higher OBP. Right now Lindor makes more sense but never know when they get to the majors. Could use them as your leadoff and 2-hole hitters too if both have solid OBPs. I also think Naquin's bat could fit in the 3 or 5 hole, similar to Brantley.


I'd be very concerned if TN was in the 3 or 5 hole. Just don't see him as a guy that can drive runners in from first base. If he's up there, I see him as a #2 but most likely an #8 or #9 unless he starts drawing walks more consistently.


I don't see an issue at all with his walk rate and hitting near the top/middle of the lineup. 8+% isn't elite but it's very solid.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:44 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:I see the Naquin/Bourn talk about the K's. Naquin is striking out vs. A-ball pitchers, and Bourn is striking out vs. MLB pitching. When Michael Bourn was in A ball (Low-A at 21), he had an 85/88 BB/K ratio in 510 AB's and he hit 5 HR, 14 3B and 20 2B. Naquin was 22 in High-A and was 41/112 in BB/K and only hit for modestly better power. There are some mediocre pitchers in A-ball, so anytime you see K's at a high rate vs. those guys there are issues.

Naquin was an all-average hitter at Texas A&M and he did not hit for much power. He began to swing for more power this year and he sacrificed average and contact to get more HR's. I'm sure he could have hit for +.300 if he slapped at the ball more and didn't try for as many extra bases. Regarding him being a good OBP guy, he only walked 41 times in nearly 500 AB's so I'm skeptical. He didn't walk much at Texas A&M, either. Naquin didn't even make the top 20 prospects in the Carolina League, which says something. There's only 8 teams in that league so it's a relatively easier list to make.

I've seen Naquin compared to David DeJesus. David DeJesus demonstrated excellent contact numbers in the minor leagues, most often walking more than he struck out. I think Naquin has a ways to go before he reaches DeJesus-type performance as he's got far worse BB/K numbers suggesting he's got some holes in his swing (despite being tabbed as a "plus-plus" hitter by some on this site after the draft). I'm still scratching my head on the Naquin at 15th overall selection. The Indians really botched that draft.


There's definitely concern with Naquin putting up the numbers he has at A-ball vs the majors. He needs to improve his game or he'll obviously just struggle when he moves up. But think people are writing him off too much.

Bourn struck out nearly 19% of the time at AA in 2006 and had a batting line of .274/.350/.365. I think Naquin can easily hit that well and have that OBP...but probably will have a higher SLG.

And again, an 8% walk rate is really not bad. I'd love to see more walks but if he walks 50 times in 600 plate appearances that's fine. Again, that is if he can maintain tihs walk rate to the bigs..which is no guarantee.

I'm not trying to justify the pick of Naquin either (I didn't like it), but think Naquin is a decent player and can be a solid big leaguer. Can see some 2-3 win seasons from him in the OF. Not exactly the same type of hitter as a DeJesus (or an Aoki) but can put up similar OBP numbers and value I think. Think he could hit .275-.285 at the big league level with an OBP around .350...similar to what DeJesus has done and what Aoki has done. Value in those types of players.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Chiefroy » Mon Dec 23, 2013 8:07 pm

Chiefroy
Draft Prospect
 
Posts: 191
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 7:28 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby adam30 » Wed Dec 25, 2013 9:28 pm

Hermie13 wrote:There's definitely concern with Naquin putting up the numbers he has at A-ball vs the majors. He needs to improve his game or he'll obviously just struggle when he moves up. But think people are writing him off too much.

Bourn struck out nearly 19% of the time at AA in 2006 and had a batting line of .274/.350/.365. I think Naquin can easily hit that well and have that OBP...but probably will have a higher SLG.

And again, an 8% walk rate is really not bad. I'd love to see more walks but if he walks 50 times in 600 plate appearances that's fine. Again, that is if he can maintain tihs walk rate to the bigs..which is no guarantee.

I'm not trying to justify the pick of Naquin either (I didn't like it), but think Naquin is a decent player and can be a solid big leaguer. Can see some 2-3 win seasons from him in the OF. Not exactly the same type of hitter as a DeJesus (or an Aoki) but can put up similar OBP numbers and value I think. Think he could hit .275-.285 at the big league level with an OBP around .350...similar to what DeJesus has done and what Aoki has done. Value in those types of players.


It's not all about OBP though really when you're talking about a guy who doesn't hit for power. I know you're not defending the Naquin pick, but would anybody really give Bourn a second thought if he wasn't a 40+ SB threat? That year in AA Bourn stole 30 bags in 80 games. Naquin doesn't have that tool either.
adam30
Undrafted Free Agent
 
Posts: 14
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:42 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Dec 27, 2013 10:18 am

adam30 wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:There's definitely concern with Naquin putting up the numbers he has at A-ball vs the majors. He needs to improve his game or he'll obviously just struggle when he moves up. But think people are writing him off too much.

Bourn struck out nearly 19% of the time at AA in 2006 and had a batting line of .274/.350/.365. I think Naquin can easily hit that well and have that OBP...but probably will have a higher SLG.

And again, an 8% walk rate is really not bad. I'd love to see more walks but if he walks 50 times in 600 plate appearances that's fine. Again, that is if he can maintain tihs walk rate to the bigs..which is no guarantee.

I'm not trying to justify the pick of Naquin either (I didn't like it), but think Naquin is a decent player and can be a solid big leaguer. Can see some 2-3 win seasons from him in the OF. Not exactly the same type of hitter as a DeJesus (or an Aoki) but can put up similar OBP numbers and value I think. Think he could hit .275-.285 at the big league level with an OBP around .350...similar to what DeJesus has done and what Aoki has done. Value in those types of players.


It's not all about OBP though really when you're talking about a guy who doesn't hit for power. I know you're not defending the Naquin pick, but would anybody really give Bourn a second thought if he wasn't a 40+ SB threat? That year in AA Bourn stole 30 bags in 80 games. Naquin doesn't have that tool either.


Wasn't trying to compare Naquin and Bourn's overall game. Bourn was the better prospect for sure (better CF defense too). Still think Naquin can be a DeJesus/Aoki type of player is more my point.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby daingean » Fri Dec 27, 2013 11:17 am

Hermie13 wrote:Wasn't trying to compare Naquin and Bourn's overall game. Bourn was the better prospect for sure (better CF defense too). Still think Naquin can be a DeJesus/Aoki type of player is more my point.


From what I've read on TN is that his arm is a difference maker so if he can hit .260 and play a solid CF then I'd be happy. I don't think the Tribe has had that kind of an arm in the OF since Cory Snyder....
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Dec 27, 2013 3:56 pm

A howitzer for an arm in CF,stealing very few bases while hitting around .260-.270 with plenty of K's and not too many walks from a first round pick in Low A to a first taste of AA as a 22 year old is a travesty..

Naquin is the result of the Indians front office being a little too smart for their own britches. Naquin is not a valid or impact ML prospect. He's a fourth outfielder on a poor team..Unless he begins to show something.. anything in the 2014 season, he'll be history and a wasted draft choice..

That's too bad.. He's a good kid.. all character.. When the Indians were on the clock.. they had the chance to take who would make a difference.. Too bad for the fans. They'll have to watch as that guy now becomes a front of the rotation stud for another team.. A stud who's already rated 100 spots ahead of Tyler Naquin on credible websites who rate players without the benefit of their draft round status...
GeronimoSon
MLB Rookie
 
Posts: 3794
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:17 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby adam30 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:28 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
adam30 wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:There's definitely concern with Naquin putting up the numbers he has at A-ball vs the majors. He needs to improve his game or he'll obviously just struggle when he moves up. But think people are writing him off too much.

Bourn struck out nearly 19% of the time at AA in 2006 and had a batting line of .274/.350/.365. I think Naquin can easily hit that well and have that OBP...but probably will have a higher SLG.

And again, an 8% walk rate is really not bad. I'd love to see more walks but if he walks 50 times in 600 plate appearances that's fine. Again, that is if he can maintain tihs walk rate to the bigs..which is no guarantee.

I'm not trying to justify the pick of Naquin either (I didn't like it), but think Naquin is a decent player and can be a solid big leaguer. Can see some 2-3 win seasons from him in the OF. Not exactly the same type of hitter as a DeJesus (or an Aoki) but can put up similar OBP numbers and value I think. Think he could hit .275-.285 at the big league level with an OBP around .350...similar to what DeJesus has done and what Aoki has done. Value in those types of players.


It's not all about OBP though really when you're talking about a guy who doesn't hit for power. I know you're not defending the Naquin pick, but would anybody really give Bourn a second thought if he wasn't a 40+ SB threat? That year in AA Bourn stole 30 bags in 80 games. Naquin doesn't have that tool either.


Wasn't trying to compare Naquin and Bourn's overall game. Bourn was the better prospect for sure (better CF defense too). Still think Naquin can be a DeJesus/Aoki type of player is more my point.


I completely understand that...just saying that Bourn's offensive game is really not an impressive one if you strip away his speed. He's been able to maintain high BABIP's at the major league level because of his speed, and he's been a viable leadoff man (up until 2013) because of his speed. So if you're going to compare Naquin to Bourn, but not account for the difference in their speed I think you're missing a big part of the picture. Naquin hit only .277 in A+ ball, and that was with the help of a .351 BABIP, something that is very unlikely to repeat itself the higher he gets up in the system. When he had a more normal BABIP in Akron, he hit .225.

Even comparing him to Aoki is a reach IMO, again, because of the difference in their speed. Dejesus fits the profile a little better, but he's always had superior plate discipline, with a career .62 BB/K ratio in the majors...that's about double what Naquin put up in A+ and AA ball in 2013.
adam30
Undrafted Free Agent
 
Posts: 14
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:42 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby martyinnewyork » Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:13 pm

I am really starting to feel the pain of realizing that Tony won't be doing a book this year. Can't blame him, I'm sure it is a total beast to put together. I will be trying to put together a Top 30, but I have not seen a whole ton of prospects and all I can go by is what I read. I miss the days when the Tribe was affiliated with the Bisons, I got to see the prospects 10-15 times a year. I have never seen Aguilar or Moncrief play, for example, and have only seen any of our guys, at most, 3 or 4 times.
martyinnewyork
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:16 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:45 am

BA's top 10 out:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2 ... prospects/

I guess you could cite inexperience in leaving out Mejia but for me he's top 10.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:21 pm

Rocky55 wrote:BA's top 10 out:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2 ... prospects/

I guess you could cite inexperience in leaving out Mejia but for me he's top 10.


From their "Top 25 & under list"...looks like they ranked Mejia their 12th best prospect in the Tribe system.

In fact looks like you can get their top 14 prospects using that list (and the top 10 list).

1. Lindor
2. Frazier
3. Bauer
4. Naquin
5. Anderson
6. Paulino
7. R. Rodriguez
8. C.C. Lee
9. J. Ramirez
10. A. Adams
11. Crockett
12. Meija
13. L. Rodriguez
14. Moncrief


Not sure if it speaks to how they like him or how much they don't like the system, but they ranked Lonnie Chisenhall as our 4th best "25 & under" guy, behind only LIndor, Salazar, and Frazier (in that order).
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby OhioBaseball » Wed Jan 08, 2014 6:24 pm

The Indians released Kyle Blair and Michael Goodnight. The Indians invested $580k in Kyle Blair and $310k for Michael Goodnight in the summer of 2010. I don't know what went wrong but these guys are recently out of college and only 24-25 years old. That should be embarrassing for the organization. Prospects fail more often than not, but these guys are done very early in their careers. Missing on these two guys isn't a huge deal, but it's emblematic of bad scouting and player development. I think they botched the 2012 draft, Dillon Howard's regression is embarrassing so early in his career, and there are many duds in past years, too. There are examples of great picks (Kipnis, and presumably Lindor), but its clear this organization needs more -- about 2 good picks every 5 years sucks. How is this acceptable in an organization that relies so heavily on home-grown talent?

John Mirabelli is still "Senior Director, Scouting Operations"? He's still around because he's working for free, presumably?
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby martyinnewyork » Wed Jan 08, 2014 9:34 pm

I will never understand the draft philosophy. If you have a board with, in order, the guys you think are the best players available, then your turn comes up, why not take the best player still on your board? The Tribe seems to think that, if we draft at slot 13 and a guy we have as the 5th best player in the whole draft is still undrafted, it is somehow smarter to take the 94th best player and then hope that 5th best player is still available in round 20, so we can sign him with all the money we saved by drafting a nobody in the 1st round.
martyinnewyork
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:16 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby daingean » Thu Jan 09, 2014 10:48 am

martyinnewyork wrote:I will never understand the draft philosophy. If you have a board with, in order, the guys you think are the best players available, then your turn comes up, why not take the best player still on your board? The Tribe seems to think that, if we draft at slot 13 and a guy we have as the 5th best player in the whole draft is still undrafted, it is somehow smarter to take the 94th best player and then hope that 5th best player is still available in round 20, so we can sign him with all the money we saved by drafting a nobody in the 1st round.


I don't think all of the blame should be pointed at the draft. I think plenty of blame has to go at the development philosophy. This team has developed potentially one difference maker SP since CC (unless you count F-Bob's one good year) and the jury is still out on Salazar (only because he hasn't been up long enough). Howard did self destruct and you can somewhat point at the draft for that. Not saying Mirabelli and Grant are blameless but our track record developing guys has been worse.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby OhioBaseball » Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:26 pm

daingean wrote:Howard did self destruct and you can somewhat point at the draft for that. Not saying Mirabelli and Grant are blameless but our track record developing guys has been worse.


I don't know Howard, but I think it looks bad when you sign a guy for $1.85 million and then he goes right into the tank. I think he looked quite polished as a HS pitching prospect and developed physically; he should have a year of A-ball under his belt by now but we're a long way from that. Maybe there were some character issues that were overlooked, or maybe he just peaked out at age 17? Something went wrong. Remember, the Indians got Howard in the 2nd round because other teams passed on him and his asking price -- maybe there was a reason for that.

I think your comment regarding player development is true -- it's not just the scouts, but there's got to be a good working relationship between scouting and player development. When you're selecting players, they've got to be guys your development people know how to work with and the scouting department needs to be considering that. A lot of blame (if not most of it) falls on player development.
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby daingean » Thu Jan 09, 2014 1:20 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:
daingean wrote:Howard did self destruct and you can somewhat point at the draft for that. Not saying Mirabelli and Grant are blameless but our track record developing guys has been worse.


I don't know Howard, but I think it looks bad when you sign a guy for $1.85 million and then he goes right into the tank. I think he looked quite polished as a HS pitching prospect and developed physically; he should have a year of A-ball under his belt by now but we're a long way from that. Maybe there were some character issues that were overlooked, or maybe he just peaked out at age 17? Something went wrong. Remember, the Indians got Howard in the 2nd round because other teams passed on him and his asking price -- maybe there was a reason for that.

I think your comment regarding player development is true -- it's not just the scouts, but there's got to be a good working relationship between scouting and player development. When you're selecting players, they've got to be guys your development people know how to work with and the scouting department needs to be considering that. A lot of blame (if not most of it) falls on player development.


If I recall correctly, Howard showed up out of shape in 2012 then was suspended for a drug in his system. I think I read somewhere that the drug was a weight loss supplement but that was only rumour.

I know everyone does low pitch counts for pitching prospects in the lower minors and increase the pitch counts as they climb the ladder. I will just say that HS and College pitchers are used to going much deeper into games but only pitching once a week (#1 college guys are Friday pitchers). I think in some ways the lower pitch counts but pitching every fifth day kind of shocks the system. Scouts evaluate guys by what they are seeing then in the pros pitchers routines are changed. And the lower pitch counts prevent guys from having to attack hitters a third or fourth time in a ball game. HS guys even in their summer days, only pitch about once a week (i.e. studs are Sunday guys because most tournament bracket games are on Sundays). I'm just pointing this out as I think guys have been trained as much as 15 years doing things one way then when they get into pro ball their routines are changed up.

Regardless, maybe the Tribe needs to hire a Cardinal or Brave player development mind. Those two teams have a lot of success developing pitchers.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby BrianM » Thu Jan 09, 2014 8:12 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:BA's top 10 out:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2 ... prospects/

I guess you could cite inexperience in leaving out Mejia but for me he's top 10.


From their "Top 25 & under list"...looks like they ranked Mejia their 12th best prospect in the Tribe system.

In fact looks like you can get their top 14 prospects using that list (and the top 10 list).

1. Lindor
2. Frazier
3. Bauer
4. Naquin
5. Anderson
6. Paulino
7. R. Rodriguez
8. C.C. Lee
9. J. Ramirez
10. A. Adams
11. Crockett
12. Meija
13. L. Rodriguez
14. Moncrief


Not sure if it speaks to how they like him or how much they don't like the system, but they ranked Lonnie Chisenhall as our 4th best "25 & under" guy, behind only LIndor, Salazar, and Frazier (in that order).


What a boring list. With Callis gone, BA is sure to take quite a stumble in the prospect community. The only reason I ever respected BA so much was Jim Callis, and now the MLB.com list he does will come first and foremost for me when looking for opinions outside of the awesome IBI.

The only things that interest me in regards to this list are Moncrief and as someone else mentioned, Chissenhall. BA and Callis have always loved Chiz, and a number of other well thought of sites seem to still like Chiz. Having him ranked as the 4th best young player for the Tribe makes me believe that they have yet to find something that makes them believe he can't be the player they always though he could despite his lack of success thus far and his terrible splits. Moncrief at 14 is much higher than I expected him to be. I love the ranking and would have him in my own personal top 10, but they must have seen or heard some very good news about him to push him up that far in their list considering he was completely off the BA radar one year ago.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby criznit2009 » Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:58 am

Not a knock on Adams, but he is not the #10 prospect in the system.. Hopefully they will go back and "revise" their list after Aguilar's fine winter ball campaign if they can. Otherwise, that might end up becoming a glaring oversight.
Quick list from me...
1. Lindor <- if he's not on yr list here you are an idiot or a genius.
2. Fraizer
3. Cody Anderson
4. Fransisco Mejia <- Don't know enough about this kid, but what's not to like?
5. Jose Ramirez
6. Trevor Bauer
7. Jesus Aguilar <- Chance I'm wrong, and this is too low.
8. C.C Lee <- best rookie pitcher for the tribe this year, tempted to swap him with Bauer...
9. Joe Wendle <- bullish but his stock explodes if he plays well in Akron..
10. Dorssys Paulino

1st 2/3 are easy.. Then a lot of ??????? marks.

Crockett and Ronny Rod, are in the mix too, and you could argue a few more guys. Starting pitching is very weak IMO,though there are a few guys who have potential. However, given the tribes recent (recent? who am I kidding) struggles to develop SP's it could continue to be a major hole and even get bleaker.
criznit2009
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Tue May 12, 2009 9:27 pm
Location: Portland, OR

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby martyinnewyork » Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:31 pm

My Top 30:

1 Lindor
1 Salazar (Hey, its my list, I'm counting him)
3 Frazier
4 Bauer
5 Aguilar
6 J Ramirez
7 Naquin
8 Anderson
9 Paulino
10 Mejia
11 Baker
12 Wendle
13 Crockett
14 Kime
15 R Rodriguez
16 Myles
17 Lugo
18 Santander
19 Wolters
20 L Rodriguez
21 J Smith
22 CC Lee
23 Adams
24 Moncrief
25 Urshela
26 Mitch Brown
27 TJ House
28 L Washington
29 Araujo
30 Soto

If I made this list in 3 hours, the bottom 15 would probably be switched around. I could have Washington and Moncrief higher, and Adams and Brown lower. And shoot me, I still consider Salazar a prospect...
martyinnewyork
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:16 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby BrianM » Sat Jan 11, 2014 11:56 pm

Okay so I just tried making a top 30 list but its so hard differentiating pitchers from hitters, so instead I put together 3 different prospect lists separating Hitters, SP, and RP.

Hitters

1 Lindor
2 Frazier
3 Paulino - Won't give up on the hype yet...thought about putting him in front of Frazier
4 Moncrief - My boy with the 5 tools
5 J Ramirez
6 Meija
7 Aguilar - I don't trust his WL stats. Someone confirmed the fence is only like 365-375 in dead center I believe
8 Washington - If healthy, probably number 2 on this list
9 Naquin - Meh
10 Wolters - Was unbelievably good last year considering the circumstances
11 Wendle - Can't play defense and Can't hit lefties...yet
12 Santander
13 Haase - Can't ignore catchers with pop and athleticism
14 E Gonzalez - Showed the pop we wanted to see from RRod this year, and we rostered him
15 R Rodriguez
16 L Rodriguez - Ahead of Myles based on youth, speed, and swagger
17 Myles
18 Urshela
19 Monsalve
20 N Rodriguez

Starting Pitchers

1 Salazar - I added him just to make the system look deeper
2 Bauer
3 Anderson
4 Baker
5 Brown - Injury plagued first season, so I'll ignore it
6 House - given time, he has adjusted to every level hes been at and hes left handed
7 Morimando
8 Kime
9 Plutko - Hopefully doesn't turn into Kyle Blair 2.0
10 Lugo
11 Araujo
12 Lovegrove - Still really young and Tony mentioned he was hitting 97 this year. Actually may have said 99.
13 Brady - Probably ends up in BP, but I loved his performance in Arizona this year.
14 Sisco
15 Howard - He got fat and sucked his first season. Took drugs to lose weight and got caught his 2nd. Maybe he matures and puts it together this year. If he does, that 2011 draft will actually turn into something quite impressive. Imagine if we would have been able to sign Tarpley and Peters.

Relief Pitchers

1 CC Lee - Gets the edge over Crockett for having the better KO pitch
2 Crockett
3 Guilmet - You can't be as successful as he is been without knowing how to pitch
4 Barnes - Still really high upside
5 Adams
6 Soto - would rather see him start
7 Price
8 Stowell
9 Armstrong
10 J Johnson

Haley was a notable omission. Don't care how hard you throw if you can't throw strikes. Honestly, wouldnt mind seeing him start again either considering the depth of our RP.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:21 pm

criznit2009 wrote:Not a knock on Adams, but he is not the #10 prospect in the system.. Hopefully they will go back and "revise" their list after Aguilar's fine winter ball campaign if they can. Otherwise, that might end up becoming a glaring oversight.
Quick list from me...
1. Lindor <- if he's not on yr list here you are an idiot or a genius.
2. Fraizer
3. Cody Anderson
4. Fransisco Mejia <- Don't know enough about this kid, but what's not to like?
5. Jose Ramirez
6. Trevor Bauer
7. Jesus Aguilar <- Chance I'm wrong, and this is too low.
8. C.C Lee <- best rookie pitcher for the tribe this year, tempted to swap him with Bauer...
9. Joe Wendle <- bullish but his stock explodes if he plays well in Akron..
10. Dorssys Paulino

1st 2/3 are easy.. Then a lot of ??????? marks.

Crockett and Ronny Rod, are in the mix too, and you could argue a few more guys. Starting pitching is very weak IMO,though there are a few guys who have potential. However, given the tribes recent (recent? who am I kidding) struggles to develop SP's it could continue to be a major hole and even get bleaker.


Can't see anyway they do that. They publish their top 30 in book form still and changing their top 10 would require changing the print version, which probably isn't doable at this point.

Agree on the starting pitching in the system. Really need Salazar to be the real deal and Bauer to step up. After Anderson not a lot to look forward too in the system right now...
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Mon Jan 13, 2014 4:14 pm

Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3112
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:43 pm

Baseball Prospectus' top 101 list is out for 2014:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22664
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:07 pm

Jonathan Mayo also has posted his favorite 15 prospects that did not make the mlb.com top 100. He notes that it's not necessarily a 101-115 ranking but just guys he really likes. Cleveland's Dorssys Paulino made that list, for what it's worth. Jim Callis did the same, though no Tribe specs ended up there.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 28, 2014 2:14 pm

Parks did a chat about the BP top 101 yesterday as well. Not much Tribe wise, but couple intersting points:

1. Not a big Bauer fan...sounds like even if he wasn't ruled ineligible by their standards, he wouldn't have made the list (not surprising given where he was ranked among the best 25 and under).

2. They are big Francisco Mejia fans. Named him as one of his nine prospects he thinks will "blow up" this year, and when asked directly about him and if he could be on the list in 2015 he said "Yes. He has the talent to make that happen. We are very high on him."

3. When asked what the what the odds were of Clint Frazier making the overall top 10 next year he said "quite possible"....which isn't a ringing endorsement but still.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:07 pm

Keith Law has his top 100 out now, plus his team rankings.

As usual, only Lindor and Frazier are in the top 100 from Cleveland (6th and 45th, respectively). Tribe's system ranked 17th overall, not too bad considering Salazar isn't included (obviously always want a stronger system though).
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Wed Jan 29, 2014 5:56 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Keith Law has his top 100 out now, plus his team rankings.

As usual, only Lindor and Frazier are in the top 100 from Cleveland (6th and 45th, respectively). Tribe's system ranked 17th overall, not too bad considering Salazar isn't included (obviously always want a stronger system though).


Tomorrow we'll see his top ten... I'm somewhat anxious to see what it'll look like. Just based off prior conversations Law has had, it seems as if he's not very high on Aguilar or Wendle. We'll see tomorrow.
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3112
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:50 pm

Keith Law's top ten:

1. Francisco Lindor, SS (6)
2. Clint Frazier, OF (45)
3. Dorssys Paulino, SS
4. Trevor Bauer, RHP
5. Cody Anderson, RHP
6. Jose Ramirez, 2B
7. Tyler Naquin, CF
8. Tony Wolters, C
9. Mitch Brown, RHP
10. Carlos Moncrief, OF

Gotta say, I'm left scratching my head.. Paulino 3?! Mitch Brown 9?! I don't get that at all... Wolters at 7 seems a tiny bit high to me as well.

EDIT: He mentions Ronny Rodriguez would come in at #11, Erik Gonzalez #12..

Mentions Kieran Lovegrove, Dylan Baker, and Dace Kime as back-end starts or pen arms, with Kime the most likely to stick in the rotation.

His sleeper is Francisco Mejia.
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3112
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Jan 30, 2014 4:49 pm

Baseball Prospectus
1. SS Francisco Lindor
2. OF Clint Frazier
3. CF Tyler Naquin
4. RHP Cody Anderson
5. C Francisco Mejia
6. 2B Jose Ramirez
7. SS Ronny Rodriguez
8. SS Dorssys Paulino
9. 2B Joe Wendle
10.RHP Dace Kime

Baseball America
1. SS Francisco Lindor
2. OF Clint Frazier
3. P Trevor Bauer
4. OF Tyler Naquin
5. P Cody Anderson
6. SS Dorssys Paulino
7. SS Ronny Rodriguez
8. P C.C. Lee
9. 2B Jose Ramirez
10. P Austin Adams
11. P Kyle Crockett
12. C Francisco Meija
13. OF Luigi Rodriguez
14. OF Carlos Moncrief

Keith Law
1. Francisco Lindor, SS (6)
2. Clint Frazier, OF (45)
3. Dorssys Paulino, SS
4. Trevor Bauer, RHP
5. Cody Anderson, RHP
6. Jose Ramirez, 2B
7. Tyler Naquin, CF
8. Tony Wolters, C
9. Mitch Brown, RHP
10. Carlos Moncrief, OF
11. Ronnie Rodriguez, SS
12. Erik Gonzalez, INF

So for those counting at home...
SS Francisco Lindor: 1, 1, 1 (1.0)
OF Clint Frazier: 2, 2, 2 (2.0)
P Trevor Bauer: NR, 3, 4 (2.3)
OF Tyler Naquin: 3, 4, 7 (4.6)
P Cody Anderson: 4, 5, 5 (4.6)
SS Dorsyys Paulino: 8, 6, 3 (5.6)
2B Jose Ramirez: 6, 9, 6 (7.0)
SS Ronny Rodriguez: 7, 7, 11 (8.3)
C Francisco Mejia: 5, 12, NR
C Tony Wolters: NR, NR, 7
P Mitch Brown: NR, NR, 9
OF Carlos Moncrief: NR, 14, 10
P CC Lee: NR, 8, NR, NR
2B Joe Wendle: 9, NR, NR
P Dace Kime: 10, NR, NR
P Austin Adams: NR, 10, NR
P Kyle Crockett: NR, 11, NR
INF Erik Gonzalez: NR, NR, 12
OF Luigi Rodriguez: NR, 13, NR
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3112
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:18 pm

I'm too lazy to do a spec list but I look at Kyle Crockett and I look at Tyler Naquin and I'm pretty sure I can guess which one will have a bigger impact at the ML level. So why rank the future AAAA player above the future valuable pen arm?

Also think that ignoring Dylan Baker is going to look foolish in a couple of years.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:21 pm

Rocky55 wrote:I'm too lazy to do a spec list but I look at Kyle Crockett and I look at Tyler Naquin and I'm pretty sure I can guess which one will have a bigger impact at the ML level. So why rank the future AAAA player above the future valuable pen arm?

Also think that ignoring Dylan Baker is going to look foolish in a couple of years.


It may not take that long...
GeronimoSon
MLB Rookie
 
Posts: 3794
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:17 pm

Re: 2014 Prospect Rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:31 am

Rocky55 wrote:I'm too lazy to do a spec list but I look at Kyle Crockett and I look at Tyler Naquin and I'm pretty sure I can guess which one will have a bigger impact at the ML level. So why rank the future AAAA player above the future valuable pen arm?

Also think that ignoring Dylan Baker is going to look foolish in a couple of years.


Think people calling Naquin a AAAA player will look foolish in a couple years too....
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Next

Return to Indians Prospect Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron