Indians Prospect Insider - Covering the Cleveland Indians from the Minors to the Big Leagues

2013 MLB Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Wed May 22, 2013 8:28 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
PEngle39 wrote:Jim Callis at Baseball America now has the Indians taking Colin Moran.

So now Law, Callis, McDaniel, Sickels, and Mayo all have Moran going to the Indians. Must be some heavy info there.....

Hope for our sakes those dudes are wrong. I know if Grant & crew saw the UNC/FSU game on Monday they would be having second thoughts. Moran looked pathetic. on both sides of the ball. He looks gangly & un coordinated. Can't see that guy ever being a 3B in MLB. Weak contact, when he made contact, in every AB. These were not Friday night starters pitching. Four guys on UNC had 2 hits apiece. Moran had the bid zero.

Granted, this is only one look. Maybe he was having an off night, but I've seen literally 20 guys in college games this season that I'd take before Moran. I believe I posted somewhere in this thread that I'd take Moran over Meadows; I retract that shamefacedly.

Now watch him end up in the HOF.


Agreed, I want nothing to do with Moran.
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3110
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed May 22, 2013 9:27 pm

PEngle39 wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:
PEngle39 wrote:Jim Callis at Baseball America now has the Indians taking Colin Moran.

So now Law, Callis, McDaniel, Sickels, and Mayo all have Moran going to the Indians. Must be some heavy info there.....

Hope for our sakes those dudes are wrong. I know if Grant & crew saw the UNC/FSU game on Monday they would be having second thoughts. Moran looked pathetic. on both sides of the ball. He looks gangly & un coordinated. Can't see that guy ever being a 3B in MLB. Weak contact, when he made contact, in every AB. These were not Friday night starters pitching. Four guys on UNC had 2 hits apiece. Moran had the bid zero.

Granted, this is only one look. Maybe he was having an off night, but I've seen literally 20 guys in college games this season that I'd take before Moran. I believe I posted somewhere in this thread that I'd take Moran over Meadows; I retract that shamefacedly.

Now watch him end up in the HOF.


Well, Kiley McDaniel has said that Gray and Appel want #1 money and won't take less, so the Astros have been flocking to UNC to see Moran. I guess both owner and GM went to visit him with hopes that he agrees on an very under slot deal. Wouldn't it be something if one of Appel/ Bryant/ Gray fell to the Indians?

I've heard Gray is willing to cut a deal and has some ties to the Astros. While I'd love to see any of those three I seriously doubt that happens. I think it's more realistic to expect Frazier, Meadows, Shipley, Stanek or Stewart from the Tribe.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby adaree » Thu May 23, 2013 10:08 am

Honestly I think more than anything, the writers are just doing what writers always do...trying to be the first one to report something. They see the scouting reports that say that Moran is the "best pure hitter" in the draft, and they immediately see him going to the Tribe. Based on our history, that's a completely reasonable jump...but it doesn't mean any of these writers have actually talked to Tribe scouts about this. It's purely speculation, albeit reasonable speculation. Let's just hope some team ahead of us loves Moran and takes him before we have the chance.
adaree
Undrafted Free Agent
 
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:30 am

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 23, 2013 11:58 am

Agreed, writers do what they do...that's their job. Previous history is a good indication if what teams will do. I think the best guess right now for the Tribe would be Braden Shipley - RHSP from Nevada. Lower miles arm, solid build, likely ceiling of # 2 SP. I think he'd likely sign underslot, just a guess but I think $3.25 M would get him signed. That would save the Tribe a cool $500 K in similar fashion to last yr the Tribe could go aggressive the rest of the way.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Thu May 23, 2013 12:15 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Agreed, writers do what they do...that's their job. Previous history is a good indication if what teams will do. I think the best guess right now for the Tribe would be Braden Shipley - RHSP from Nevada. Lower miles arm, solid build, likely ceiling of # 2 SP. I think he'd likely sign underslot, just a guess but I think $3.25 M would get him signed. That would save the Tribe a cool $500 K in similar fashion to last yr the Tribe could go aggressive the rest of the way.


I'd prefer either Frazier or Meadows or even Bryant than Shipley. I'm not so excited by getting a #2 SP with the #5 pick. I think Frazier, Meadows and Bryant will be All Stars where Shipley has a much lower ceiling (guys with ceilings of #2 starters smell too much like Sowers and Huff to me). I think last year's savings was more a result of not liking the other options and Naquin was the lesser of potential evils (at least to the Scouting department). Hopefully this will be the last time for a while we draft this high and this team needs power hitters in the minors.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu May 23, 2013 12:37 pm

Agreed, was simply suggesting Shipley based off of previous history. 50 % RHSP and 50 % college picks (top 10 picks last 3 yrs). Although I do like Shipley, I'd prefer Kohl Stewart over Shipley myself because he has # 1 potential. That said, there are concerns about signability, mechanics, risk of injury and of course development of HS talent.

My top 5:
Gray
Bryant
Appel
Frazier
Stewart
Just missed:
Meadows
Ball
Shipley
Moran
Stanek
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Tondo » Thu May 23, 2013 12:58 pm

I'm completely torn on Moran and would like one of Gray, Appel, Bryant or Frazier...not sure why, but I'm quietly hoping for Frazier and I'm more of a College guy when it comes to the draft, so that's saying something. Guess it's the reports saying he already has an advanced College-type bat

If the top 4 are gone my frontrunner as of now is Shipley....he should come on a heavy discount (I think we can easily save 700k up to 1mil of pool money by signing him around 3mil) and represents the best ceiling/floor bet of all players left. His ceiling is that of a FOR/MOR tweener and his floor is a backend BP guy/BOR.

I would again go heavy underslot with pick 79 with a good but older College guy (think Buck Farmer). This would allow the Indians to draft a few free falling signability HS players much later, even outside the Top 10 picks and go hard at one of them with their surplus money, take it or leave it style.

I keep reading draft analysts saying that the 4th to 10th round range is where team go the "SR-College route" to save pool money to "work the new system", but I actually think it's bad logic, as the biggest slot values, naturally, are the highest picks, so there's wher you can "save" the most. You can also throw 100k at every player picked after round 10 without affecting the pool money, that's another head-start many forget about and not much less than the alloted figures from rounds 8 to 10.

Here's an example: Let's say we go Shipley or College guy at 5, save 750k on pool money. Now at 79 we really like a couple of late 1st round HS prospects that are falling because nobody met their demand (let's say somewhere between 1.5-2mil). Now, we could of course draft one of them and burn all of our saved Shipley money and more and meet their asking price OR we draft a good College SR like Farmer, save another 300-500k doing so and let those HS guys drop even further as it becomes less likely with every pick that some other team is able to meet their asking price. We see it every draft: good HS prospects going undrafted in the top 10 rounds and picked up much later as "flyers" or insurance, but with the new system in place there's no more "insurance" as you lose all your slot value if you don't sign a top10 round player. This means more of those HS prospects will drop.

Of course, I already hear you saying that we could as easily draft that HS guy and save money on College SRs in the mid rounds and that's what most of the teams do. But I think it's bad mass logic at work here, as MORE good HS talents drop all the way through, whereas LESS good, older College players get through the mid rounds as in years past.

Simply put, a guy like Farmer won't make it past the 10th round in this new system, a high end SR guy like him probably not even out of the 5th, so the earlier you take him, the more pool money you can save for one of the free falling HS guy later (think Garza last draft). If you draft this HS prospect somewhere after the 10th, you'd have 100k+750k+500k freed up for him already. You can now work the phone with him constantly and make offers you feel comfy with, because you've worked yourself "ahead of the count", so to say. If you feel you're close to meet his demand, you can mix in a Wendle-like mid rounder to save the rest you need and go ahead and either secure the HS guy in rounds 7to10 or if you have a bigger pool you like, let them drop past that and concentrate on mostly slot/underlsot College guys till round 10.

The way most teams, including the Indians, do this is "contact slapping" behind in the count after taking the huge swing early on. You either hack at it early on (sign a high dollar guy with your first pick) and go save from there, but if you sacrifice-draft Naquin's in the 1st, why hack at it following it up with overslots like M.Brown and McClure? Instead of them we could have drafted a Stripling, Baxendale, C.Walker or Refsnyder AND signed Garza with the money saved there. Now we're hoping that Brown and McClure will be as good as Stripling and Refsnyder in 2 years and have no extra lottery ticket in Garza. While there is a lot of hindsight in this particular example, I think my bigger point is legit...or not?
Tondo
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 464
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Thu May 23, 2013 2:46 pm

we had such bad luck with College players in the first round (Sowers, Huff, Mills, Aubrey, Guthrie (better success after he was waved), Crowe.....I know Chiz was a college guy but a JC guy when drafted) that my feelings are we are better off with HS players. I think the "luck" thing is more our approach to developing/drafting guys. I've no qualms after the first round as I view first round guys have to be All Stars to justify the pick (at least at 5). Aside from Appel and Gray, I don't see a true potential All Star in the college ranks.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Thu May 23, 2013 2:55 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
PEngle39 wrote:Jim Callis at Baseball America now has the Indians taking Colin Moran.

So now Law, Callis, McDaniel, Sickels, and Mayo all have Moran going to the Indians. Must be some heavy info there.....

Hope for our sakes those dudes are wrong. I know if Grant & crew saw the UNC/FSU game on Monday they would be having second thoughts. Moran looked pathetic. on both sides of the ball. He looks gangly & un coordinated. Can't see that guy ever being a 3B in MLB. Weak contact, when he made contact, in every AB. These were not Friday night starters pitching. Four guys on UNC had 2 hits apiece. Moran had the bid zero.

Granted, this is only one look. Maybe he was having an off night, but I've seen literally 20 guys in college games this season that I'd take before Moran. I believe I posted somewhere in this thread that I'd take Moran over Meadows; I retract that shamefacedly.


It wasn't just one look, Rocky -- his game just doesn't jump out at you.

Regarding this Colin Moran stuff, if I were a scouting director I wouldn't waste my time with him unless he was willing to sign for a material discount. This is why;

Instead of paying top dollar for a low-upside, marginal talent prospect like Moran (I do recognize that he's a plus hitter, keep in mind), have your scouts go find a group of Jordan Smith-type guys and sign a group of them for $50k-$150k a piece rather than giving Moran $3mm-$4mm. Frankly, if you grade out Jordan Smith's tools vs. Colin Moran's, there's not that big of a difference. All things equal, I'd take Colin Moran everyday of the week over Jordan Smith b/c he's a better hitter, but Colin Moran is going to cost you 25x more than Jordan Smith in a signing bonus. That's a ridiculous disparity in my mind. Go watch Jordan Smith play, and then go watch Colin Moran. No scout in their right mind would tell you that Colin Moran is worth 25x more (or even 5x more for that matter). Just being real.
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu May 23, 2013 3:11 pm

I've got a UNC/Miami game on Fox Sports about to start. Two of my faves from last year's draft: the much discussed Skye Bolt & David Thompson of Miami. I considered Thompson the best HS power guy last year. He's playing 3B as he did in HS. Daingean's boy Kent Emanuel (SP?) is pitching for UNC. Will report later.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby PEngle39 » Thu May 23, 2013 3:43 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:
PEngle39 wrote:Jim Callis at Baseball America now has the Indians taking Colin Moran.

So now Law, Callis, McDaniel, Sickels, and Mayo all have Moran going to the Indians. Must be some heavy info there.....

Hope for our sakes those dudes are wrong. I know if Grant & crew saw the UNC/FSU game on Monday they would be having second thoughts. Moran looked pathetic. on both sides of the ball. He looks gangly & un coordinated. Can't see that guy ever being a 3B in MLB. Weak contact, when he made contact, in every AB. These were not Friday night starters pitching. Four guys on UNC had 2 hits apiece. Moran had the bid zero.

Granted, this is only one look. Maybe he was having an off night, but I've seen literally 20 guys in college games this season that I'd take before Moran. I believe I posted somewhere in this thread that I'd take Moran over Meadows; I retract that shamefacedly.


It wasn't just one look, Rocky -- his game just doesn't jump out at you.

Regarding this Colin Moran stuff, if I were a scouting director I wouldn't waste my time with him unless he was willing to sign for a material discount. This is why;

Instead of paying top dollar for a low-upside, marginal talent prospect like Moran (I do recognize that he's a plus hitter, keep in mind), have your scouts go find a group of Jordan Smith-type guys and sign a group of them for $50k-$150k a piece rather than giving Moran $3mm-$4mm. Frankly, if you grade out Jordan Smith's tools vs. Colin Moran's, there's not that big of a difference. All things equal, I'd take Colin Moran everyday of the week over Jordan Smith b/c he's a better hitter, but Colin Moran is going to cost you 25x more than Jordan Smith in a signing bonus. That's a ridiculous disparity in my mind. Go watch Jordan Smith play, and then go watch Colin Moran. No scout in their right mind would tell you that Colin Moran is worth 25x more (or even 5x more for that matter). Just being real.


I disagree. Watching Moran for the fourth time now, it's really apparent that he has a real feel for the game; something the Indians really seem to value. He's going to stick at 3B with his hands and arm making up for a lack of foot speed. I think he's a safe pick, but even his 'safe' is nearly all-star caliber-- at worst, he's a high average, high OBP, low K, with minimal power. At his best, he's those same qualities with 20-30 HR potential.
PEngle39
Undrafted Free Agent
 
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 5:30 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Thu May 23, 2013 4:23 pm

PEngle39 wrote:
OhioBaseball wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:
PEngle39 wrote:Jim Callis at Baseball America now has the Indians taking Colin Moran.

So now Law, Callis, McDaniel, Sickels, and Mayo all have Moran going to the Indians. Must be some heavy info there.....

Hope for our sakes those dudes are wrong. I know if Grant & crew saw the UNC/FSU game on Monday they would be having second thoughts. Moran looked pathetic. on both sides of the ball. He looks gangly & un coordinated. Can't see that guy ever being a 3B in MLB. Weak contact, when he made contact, in every AB. These were not Friday night starters pitching. Four guys on UNC had 2 hits apiece. Moran had the bid zero.

Granted, this is only one look. Maybe he was having an off night, but I've seen literally 20 guys in college games this season that I'd take before Moran. I believe I posted somewhere in this thread that I'd take Moran over Meadows; I retract that shamefacedly.


It wasn't just one look, Rocky -- his game just doesn't jump out at you.

Regarding this Colin Moran stuff, if I were a scouting director I wouldn't waste my time with him unless he was willing to sign for a material discount. This is why;

Instead of paying top dollar for a low-upside, marginal talent prospect like Moran (I do recognize that he's a plus hitter, keep in mind), have your scouts go find a group of Jordan Smith-type guys and sign a group of them for $50k-$150k a piece rather than giving Moran $3mm-$4mm. Frankly, if you grade out Jordan Smith's tools vs. Colin Moran's, there's not that big of a difference. All things equal, I'd take Colin Moran everyday of the week over Jordan Smith b/c he's a better hitter, but Colin Moran is going to cost you 25x more than Jordan Smith in a signing bonus. That's a ridiculous disparity in my mind. Go watch Jordan Smith play, and then go watch Colin Moran. No scout in their right mind would tell you that Colin Moran is worth 25x more (or even 5x more for that matter). Just being real.


I disagree. Watching Moran for the fourth time now, it's really apparent that he has a real feel for the game; something the Indians really seem to value. He's going to stick at 3B with his hands and arm making up for a lack of foot speed. I think he's a safe pick, but even his 'safe' is nearly all-star caliber-- at worst, he's a high average, high OBP, low K, with minimal power. At his best, he's those same qualities with 20-30 HR potential.


I've been a fan of the UNC-Chapel Hill team for years now. I watch a good deal of UNC games and I've got a natural bias to like Moran, but I've seen him numerous times and no way do I think he's worth 20x to 25x more in a signing bonus than someone like Jordan Smith. Please keep in mind -- I think Moran is a good prospect, but taking him at 5th overall and paying him $3.5mm is crazy when there's dozens of similar players with similar tools/skills that are available for substantially less.

You can even go on YouTube and watch Smith (small clips) -- there's not enough of a difference between the two to justify the millions more you're going to spend on Moran. What I'm saying is the relative value between the two is far more favorable to the later round/lower bonus players (your Matt Carpenters of the world).
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Thu May 23, 2013 5:11 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:Regarding Josh Hart....

John Klima at Baseball prospect writes: Josh Hart. Here’s the guy you dream on. Easy plus runner – easy. I got the times to prove it. Baseball instincts – and that ball in the corner ought to tell you all you need to know. Left-handed hitter with a good swing. I thought a touch behind offensively from Frazier and Williams but not enough to scare me away. He's committed to attend Georgia Tech.. The rest of his evaluation can be seen at: http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/08 ... more-16627 .


Jeff Dahm at Moscato Baseball had this to offer from a PG scout regarding Josh Hart: “Slender live-bodied build, lots of room to get stronger. Polished leadoff-type hitter, very patient and will work walks. … Very good outfield range, playable arm strength, very accurate throws.”

The report also mentions that he is a “good student” as his high school GPA of 3.2 attests. His interest in schoolwork proved beneficial to Georgia Tech’s efforts to land him in Atlanta.

“That whole environment and they have a great baseball program,” Hart said. “Plus, I just love the whole site – the coaching staff they’re like family. And outside of baseball, I kind of want to get into business and marketing, and I’m pretty good at physics too, so I’m looking into that.”

Playing within the East Cobb Baseball organization, Hart is constantly surrounded by top-notch talent, including showcase events where East Cobb often sends entire team units. The PG 2-Texas Orange that Hart is playing with this week complements the PG 7-Texas Orange that features so many other East Cobb top prospects.


In a short, he's got the fast twitch reflexes and speed that Kenny Lofton possessed but not his strength.. that may come..


I've seen Hart play a couple of times......I know he played up an age group with the ECB Astros and manned CF very well. Another ECB CF prospect Stephen Wren can really fly and has a lot of arm strength. Both are comparable but Wren looks to go in round 2-4.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu May 23, 2013 5:46 pm

PG has Robert Kaminsky as the 2nd ranked HS player in the country, ahead of Stewart, Meadows, & Dom Smith, behind only Frazier. Glowing reports from every writer on the site. Comped him to a pre-injury Kazmir. Not that the Tribe is interested in a 6' HS lefty.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Fri May 24, 2013 10:07 am

PG #2 ranked JC spec, Cody Reed, LHP, NW Mississippi CC.

A 6'5" 220LB '11 HS grad, improved his FB velo from 86-88 in the fall of '12 to 94-95 in April-May '13. Velo on slider improved from 76-77 to 79-81 with "easy arm action and surprisingly good command." He's 6-2, 3.21 with 80 K's & 29 BB in 53 IP.

Might be suspicious of a big jump but looks like he's had a steady increase since HS.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Play ... ?ID=233782

Stil a bit inconsistent & not the greatest competition but the raw tools are there.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Fri May 24, 2013 11:26 am

PG's Mock V2 is out:

1: Kris Bryant

2: Jonathan Gray

3: Mark Appel

4: Braden Shipley

5: Drum roll please...Clint Frazier!!!

Not sure this will happen but I'd love it. I can envision it though, Minn is supposedly hot after Reese McGuire, FWIW.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 24, 2013 12:04 pm

BA has their latest mock out too, FWIW...

1. Hou... GRAY

2. CHIC... APPEL

3. Col... BRYANT

4. MN... STEWART

5. Cle... MORAN

I just can't fathom the Tribe going for anything other than upside at the 5th pick. I don't think Moran is worth the 5th pick unless he would sign an underslot deal. Personally, I'd prefer the upside of one of Frazier, and Meadows. I look at Frazier and Meadows as better options.

Here's my projections for Moran...
.275-.285 BA. 15-20 hrs, 25-30 dbls. I'm not convinced he sticks at 3rd.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Fri May 24, 2013 12:18 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:BA has their latest mock out too, FWIW...

1. Hou... GRAY

2. CHIC... APPEL

3. Col... BRYANT

4. MN... STEWART

5. Cle... MORAN

I just can't fathom the Tribe going for anything other than upside at the 5th pick. I don't think Moran is worth the 5th pick unless he would sign an underslot deal. Personally, I'd prefer the upside of one of Frazier, and Meadows. I look at Frazier and Meadows as better options.

Here's my projections for Moran...
.275-.285 BA. 15-20 hrs, 25-30 dbls. I'm not convinced he sticks at 3rd.


I agree with your projections on Moran. I just don't like 20 HR potential from the 5th pick. Would rather have 35HR potential. If he bombs, he bombs but I'd rather that then a Sowers/Huff draft and get what's expected.

Even signing under slot is not the best scenario. If that were to happen, the Indians would be drafting potential in the 3-6 rounds but the caveat is that potential would have been passed by other teams at least twice. There's a reason those guys are available in the 3-6 round. I'd rather have the 5th best player.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 24, 2013 12:45 pm

Outside of one of Appel, Gray and Bryant falling my personal wish list is.... (In order of preference).

Clint Frazier
Austin Meadows
Kohl Stewart
Trey Ball
Braden Shipley
Ryne Stanek
Colin Moran
DJ Peterson

I think we will see something like... (Just an example)

1. Clint Frazier
3. Aaron Blair
4. Austin Kubitza
5. Lukas Schiraldi
6. Mitchell Garver

High upside and a mix of college pitching. A bit different approach at the top but a similarly aggressive draft toward talent.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BrianM » Fri May 24, 2013 1:28 pm

How close would Moran be to the majors? Is he a player that would immediately be shuttled to Carolina, then start the 2014 at Akron and then shipped to Cleveland sometime in June '14?

Everybody on this board is making me freak out about the possibility of taking Moran at 5. The way everybody is talking just makes me wonder why the FO would do it if his ceiling is so much lower than the HS guys or someone like Shipley. I could understand the move if Moran is a player that could play 3rd base for a contending Indians team in 2014.

Right now our third base spot is wide open and unless we nab a free agent or believe Mike Aviles can perform as the everyday starter, were gonna have a hole at 3rd when we are in are best position to compete for a championship (MAstersons last year before FA). If the front office believe he can stick at 3rd and bat .275 with a good OBP and 10-15 HR's for the 2nd half of the 2014 season, I am totally on board with the pick in a weak draft class, but does anyone here think he can do that?
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Fri May 24, 2013 1:36 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Outside of one of Appel, Gray and Bryant falling my personal wish list is.... (In order of preference).

Clint Frazier
Austin Meadows
Kohl Stewart
Trey Ball
Braden Shipley
Ryne Stanek
Colin Moran
DJ Peterson

I think we will see something like... (Just an example)

1. Clint Frazier
3. Aaron Blair
4. Austin Kubitza
5. Lukas Schiraldi
6. Mitchell Garver

High upside and a mix of college pitching. A bit different approach at the top but a similarly aggressive draft toward talent.

I'd like that draft fine Home but it's gonna take some luck. Blair might be gone by 79 & Schiraldi is projected in 2-4 so if we want him (I do!) we might need to take him at 79. Kubitza's a wildcard with mixed results. I've seen him pitch a bunch & when he's on he's tough to hit. Has upside strength-wise too but touches only 91. I'd rather have Stuart Turner than Garver though. Stats from NM might be inflated.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Fri May 24, 2013 1:37 pm

BrianM wrote:How close would Moran be to the majors? Is he a player that would immediately be shuttled to Carolina, then start the 2014 at Akron and then shipped to Cleveland sometime in June '14?

Everybody on this board is making me freak out about the possibility of taking Moran at 5. The way everybody is talking just makes me wonder why the FO would do it if his ceiling is so much lower than the HS guys or someone like Shipley. I could understand the move if Moran is a player that could play 3rd base for a contending Indians team in 2014.

Right now our third base spot is wide open and unless we nab a free agent or believe Mike Aviles can perform as the everyday starter, were gonna have a hole at 3rd when we are in are best position to compete for a championship (MAstersons last year before FA). If the front office believe he can stick at 3rd and bat .275 with a good OBP and 10-15 HR's for the 2nd half of the 2014 season, I am totally on board with the pick in a weak draft class, but does anyone here think he can do that?


Yes I think he can but I like our chances with Chiz at 3B better (even with his low OBP)....
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri May 24, 2013 2:26 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Outside of one of Appel, Gray and Bryant falling my personal wish list is.... (In order of preference).

Clint Frazier
Austin Meadows
Kohl Stewart
Trey Ball
Braden Shipley
Ryne Stanek
Colin Moran
DJ Peterson

I think we will see something like... (Just an example)

1. Clint Frazier
3. Aaron Blair
4. Austin Kubitza
5. Lukas Schiraldi
6. Mitchell Garver

High upside and a mix of college pitching. A bit different approach at the top but a similarly aggressive draft toward talent.

I'd like that draft fine Home but it's gonna take some luck. Blair might be gone by 79 & Schiraldi is projected in 2-4 so if we want him (I do!) we might need to take him at 79. Kubitza's a wildcard with mixed results. I've seen him pitch a bunch & when he's on he's tough to hit. Has upside strength-wise too but touches only 91. I'd rather have Stuart Turner than Garver though. Stats from NM might be inflated.

Agreed, it will take some luck...I think they'll look for upside and college arms with their first 10 picks or so.

I like Kubitza, I think with some correction with his mechanics he could hit 92-94 and hit 95,96 on occasion, as he gets a bit stronger. I also, think he could get a bit thicker / stronger (maybe 10/15 lbs - he has a big frame) which would help his FB. But I would be comfortable with him in the 4th rd, I think he has the ceiling of a #3 SP or floor of a #5.

There's several Juco arms I think the Tribe will look at like Reed, Gates, Schiraldi, Porter, Knab, and Pivetta to name a few.

Curious, anyone think Josh Dreze - RHP / 1b - from: The Ohio State would be worth a flier?
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BrianM » Fri May 24, 2013 3:24 pm

daingean wrote:
BrianM wrote:How close would Moran be to the majors? Is he a player that would immediately be shuttled to Carolina, then start the 2014 at Akron and then shipped to Cleveland sometime in June '14?

Everybody on this board is making me freak out about the possibility of taking Moran at 5. The way everybody is talking just makes me wonder why the FO would do it if his ceiling is so much lower than the HS guys or someone like Shipley. I could understand the move if Moran is a player that could play 3rd base for a contending Indians team in 2014.

Right now our third base spot is wide open and unless we nab a free agent or believe Mike Aviles can perform as the everyday starter, were gonna have a hole at 3rd when we are in are best position to compete for a championship (MAstersons last year before FA). If the front office believe he can stick at 3rd and bat .275 with a good OBP and 10-15 HR's for the 2nd half of the 2014 season, I am totally on board with the pick in a weak draft class, but does anyone here think he can do that?


Yes I think he can but I like our chances with Chiz at 3B better (even with his low OBP)....


I was hoping for a bit more optimistic response towards Moran. I have not given up on Chiz, but the fact that you would still take him over our projected #5 overall pick is worrisome.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Fri May 24, 2013 3:30 pm

BrianM wrote:
daingean wrote:
BrianM wrote:How close would Moran be to the majors? Is he a player that would immediately be shuttled to Carolina, then start the 2014 at Akron and then shipped to Cleveland sometime in June '14?

Everybody on this board is making me freak out about the possibility of taking Moran at 5. The way everybody is talking just makes me wonder why the FO would do it if his ceiling is so much lower than the HS guys or someone like Shipley. I could understand the move if Moran is a player that could play 3rd base for a contending Indians team in 2014.

Right now our third base spot is wide open and unless we nab a free agent or believe Mike Aviles can perform as the everyday starter, were gonna have a hole at 3rd when we are in are best position to compete for a championship (MAstersons last year before FA). If the front office believe he can stick at 3rd and bat .275 with a good OBP and 10-15 HR's for the 2nd half of the 2014 season, I am totally on board with the pick in a weak draft class, but does anyone here think he can do that?


Yes I think he can but I like our chances with Chiz at 3B better (even with his low OBP)....


I was hoping for a bit more optimistic response towards Moran. I have not given up on Chiz, but the fact that you would still take him over our projected #5 overall pick is worrisome.


For 2014 ....... without a doubt
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Fri May 24, 2013 11:44 pm

Lukas Schiraldi. Check out the vid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RejRDzGpSmc

Can't see much but what you can see looks nice. He's 6'6" & 215, touches 97 with the FB & has what PG calls a "very effective" slider. Also a developing change. Went 9-0 with a 1.10 ERA so far.As I said, you can't see much but the physical talent is on par with any pitcher in the draft & he has MLB bloodlines. Ranked #7 JC spec just behind Tarpley but thats based on Tarpley's last season & being LH. The look like guys going in the opposite direction.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sat May 25, 2013 2:31 pm

BrianM wrote:How close would Moran be to the majors? Is he a player that would immediately be shuttled to Carolina, then start the 2014 at Akron and then shipped to Cleveland sometime in June '14?


It depends on whether you've got Moran at 1b or Moran at 3b. I think he could perform at a good level in the Carolina League right now at 1b, and do reasonably well in Double-A next year. I think expecting him at 3b in MLB by June 2014 is very unrealistic. I also think seeing him as a MLB 1b in 2014 is unrealistic.

If you'd like a reference for Colin Moran, look at Michael Aubrey at Tulane in 2003. (I'm not bringing him up b/c he was a Cleveland Indian, but I believe a very good reference point, although Moran has more size). Aubrey was an exceptional hitter in college with very good polish, but lacked MLB upside. The Indians took him 11th overall. Aubrey had good arm strength and some might have tried him at a corner OF spot, but I believe he lacked the requisite athleticism/agility to play OF and was good defensively at 1b. The bats were different in college in 2003, but Aubrey batted .420 with 18 HR vs. only 13 K's as a junior at Tulane. He signed quickly and hit very well in low-A (I believe he could have hit well in high-A as a college junior). The next year he hit very well in High-A and did reasonably well in Double-A. I think Colin Moran is on a similar track as Michael Aubrey when he was a junior in college.

Michael Aubrey developed back problems and his career was derailed b/c of that. He could have been a Sean Casey-type hitter (but not as much power, IMO) in MLB.

I think Moran is close to the majors for a college guy, but 2014 is very early, especially if you want him at 3b. Any team that takes Colin Moran at 5th overall (or close to it) probably projects him as a Sean Casey type of hitter, which is reasonable (though I believe its a bit optimistic) or thinks he can actually play 3b at a MLB average level. I think its more likely he's a Casey-like 1b than him actually playing 3b at a good level in MLB, but we'll see. I think there's a fair chance neither of those things happen and he is basically a Matt Carpenter-type player, which is why I don't like him in the top 10 overall. Just my opinions, but I'm trying to think of what scouts are projecting if this guy is truly a very early 1st rounder.
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby PEngle39 » Sun May 26, 2013 4:48 pm

I think Moran will be a solid draft pick. I know everyone thinks the Indians want upside, which they do, but Moran has plenty of it himself. It also helps that age-wise, he should be in the 2014 draft. But the Indians have played it safe every year with their 1st round pick.....even Lindor was a safe pick because they did so much work-up on him. With Frazier and Meadows, you really have to do some dreaming with them, especially since Frazier's approach isn't really conducive to the way the Indians develop bats and he's already struggling with off-speed stuff, and you really don't know if Meadows bat will ever come around.

At least with Moran, you get a Sabermetrics wet-dream; high average, lots of RBI's, and an absurd amount of walks. I just listened to an interview with the Cubs manager, Dale Sveum. He said he's been helping analyze video of the two position players they're considering at #2 overall, Moran and Bryant; he called them "core guys". He said Moran is a very polished hitter for his age, a pure bat. Has presence at the plate and a Robin Ventura-type swing. He also said Bryant has more leverage in his swing and more power but not the plate disciple of Moran. He said it's very fun to watch both......

I think a lot of people are missing the boat on Moran, he's clearly become a consensus top 5 pick. I don't think that happens by mistake. He might not be as exciting as a Frazier who could hit 30-40 HR's in the MLB but there's a risk he might not make enough contact to even play in the upper minors.
PEngle39
Undrafted Free Agent
 
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 5:30 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun May 26, 2013 5:33 pm

My biggest problem with Moran is I question his ability to stay at 3b. He might be able to but only as an average 3b. Offensively, I think he will hit for average but I question if power comes with it. Lets say he hits .285 15 hrs 80 RBI... Not quite what you want from a 5th pick - that kind of pick should be a cornerstone type player. I think his age is worth noting, considering him young for the draft. He's a guy I feel is more a safe pick...low ceiling & high floor type guy.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sun May 26, 2013 6:08 pm

PEngle, we see things differently and that's fine. You seem to have thought things out well and I respect that, so please don't take this as me arguing with you but here are things that concern me;

(1) Go back at the last decade's-plus worth of drafts. The (relatively) low-ceiling (either lack power or defensive tools), high performance college draft picks in the top 15 overall are the following; Christian Colon (4th in 2010), Dustin Ackley (2nd in 2009), Gordon Beckham (8th in 2008), Brett Wallace (13th in 2008), Beau Mills (13th in 2007), Trevor Crowe (14th in 2005), Michael Aubrey (11th in 2003), Khalil Greene (13th in 2002), Russ Adams (14th in 2002), Chris Burke (10th in 2001), Jake Gautreau (14th in 2001).

That is a group of players that were very high performers in college but lacked either (1) requisite tools to play a skill position or (2) didn't project for plus power at their corner positions. They are basically high performance, 'tweener prospects that dominated college baseball. I remember hearing many people talk everyone of those guys up (except Trevor Crowe do I remember much praise) just as you're talking up Colin Moran. All of those guys were great college players, but not a single one has turned into a good MLB player to this point (it's still early for a couple of them). I've learned over the years that you're going to be right more often than not when you say a prospect won't make it b/c most prospects end up never living up to expectations, so it's expected that a fair of those 1st round picks would fail but basically none of them lived up to expectations when they were drafted which I believe says something meaningful.

(2) You mention sabermetrics. This stuff has become more popular over the years in terms of its application to the draft. Teams hire guys with statistical and economics backgrounds to build econometric models based on historical draft data and make selections off them. Many of these models, I hypothesize, go back many years (as they should). Basic analyses demonstrate that college position players tend to have the highest probability of turning into MLB talent (Jeff Ellis did one of these studies on IPI a month or two ago) -- that's all based on historical data. Teams that have studied this know it to be true; its common knowledge. Given the Moneyball revolution in recent years, I believe many of these historical models have a flaw now in that (a) teams now realize college position players are high probability bets and (b) they are willing to draft them earlier than they used to (10+ years ago) because of that, which throws off any economic model based on historical data. Simple economic theory; this has increased demand for college position players and driven up their price which leaves lower marginal returns on these draft commodities. You used to pay $5 for these guys in the 90's, but now they are $10 so when you realize their potential you've got lower returns because you've now got a higher base on your initial investment outlay.

My basic premise is that college positional talent has become overvalued over the last decade. It's really become quite rare to see legitimate 5-tool or John Sickels' 7-skill talents at the college level (it's partly why I love UNC Freshman OF Skye Bolt so much...and he's physically projectable). Teams go crazy over modestly talented college positional talents so much to the point that college position prospects that project as only average MLB players are going in the top 5 overall. I think it's crazy and the value has now become the 6th to 10th round college guys that sign for less amounts, don't profile well at any position but can hit. I'd hit the Cape League hard and look for guys that handle the bat well, make contact, can drive the ball but look awkward on the field in some respects (throws poorly, runs funny, etc.)...enough so that'd it drive them out of the top 5 rounds. I think you'd be able to find a few Colin Moran types in that group each year and you'd have to pay them a lot less than what you would or Moran. The Saint Louis Cardinals have done a spectacular job with that lately.

Having said that, I'll give credit to Moran in that he's progressed very well in each year as an amateur. He's grown into a strong man over the last three years and is in good shape. The fact that he's obviously willing to put in the work in the weight room and improve his game is definitely a positive. The fact that he's worked hard AND succeeded is another positive. I think Moran has a chance to be Sean Casey, but it's more likely he's a pretty ordinary MLB player in my opinion. He certainly classifies as a "safe" pick this year in the top 5 overall.
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BrianM » Mon May 27, 2013 12:49 am

OhioBaseball wrote:PEngle, we see things differently and that's fine. You seem to have thought things out well and I respect that, so please don't take this as me arguing with you but here are things that concern me;

(1) Go back at the last decade's-plus worth of drafts. The (relatively) low-ceiling (either lack power or defensive tools), high performance college draft picks in the top 15 overall are the following; Christian Colon (4th in 2010), Dustin Ackley (2nd in 2009), Gordon Beckham (8th in 2008), Brett Wallace (13th in 2008), Beau Mills (13th in 2007), Trevor Crowe (14th in 2005), Michael Aubrey (11th in 2003), Khalil Greene (13th in 2002), Russ Adams (14th in 2002), Chris Burke (10th in 2001), Jake Gautreau (14th in 2001).

That is a group of players that were very high performers in college but lacked either (1) requisite tools to play a skill position or (2) didn't project for plus power at their corner positions. They are basically high performance, 'tweener prospects that dominated college baseball. I remember hearing many people talk everyone of those guys up (except Trevor Crowe do I remember much praise) just as you're talking up Colin Moran. All of those guys were great college players, but not a single one has turned into a good MLB player to this point (it's still early for a couple of them). I've learned over the years that you're going to be right more often than not when you say a prospect won't make it b/c most prospects end up never living up to expectations, so it's expected that a fair of those 1st round picks would fail but basically none of them lived up to expectations when they were drafted which I believe says something meaningful.

(2) You mention sabermetrics. This stuff has become more popular over the years in terms of its application to the draft. Teams hire guys with statistical and economics backgrounds to build econometric models based on historical draft data and make selections off them. Many of these models, I hypothesize, go back many years (as they should). Basic analyses demonstrate that college position players tend to have the highest probability of turning into MLB talent (Jeff Ellis did one of these studies on IPI a month or two ago) -- that's all based on historical data. Teams that have studied this know it to be true; its common knowledge. Given the Moneyball revolution in recent years, I believe many of these historical models have a flaw now in that (a) teams now realize college position players are high probability bets and (b) they are willing to draft them earlier than they used to (10+ years ago) because of that, which throws off any economic model based on historical data. Simple economic theory; this has increased demand for college position players and driven up their price which leaves lower marginal returns on these draft commodities. You used to pay $5 for these guys in the 90's, but now they are $10 so when you realize their potential you've got lower returns because you've now got a higher base on your initial investment outlay.

My basic premise is that college positional talent has become overvalued over the last decade. It's really become quite rare to see legitimate 5-tool or John Sickels' 7-skill talents at the college level (it's partly why I love UNC Freshman OF Skye Bolt so much...and he's physically projectable). Teams go crazy over modestly talented college positional talents so much to the point that college position prospects that project as only average MLB players are going in the top 5 overall. I think it's crazy and the value has now become the 6th to 10th round college guys that sign for less amounts, don't profile well at any position but can hit. I'd hit the Cape League hard and look for guys that handle the bat well, make contact, can drive the ball but look awkward on the field in some respects (throws poorly, runs funny, etc.)...enough so that'd it drive them out of the top 5 rounds. I think you'd be able to find a few Colin Moran types in that group each year and you'd have to pay them a lot less than what you would or Moran. The Saint Louis Cardinals have done a spectacular job with that lately.

Having said that, I'll give credit to Moran in that he's progressed very well in each year as an amateur. He's grown into a strong man over the last three years and is in good shape. The fact that he's obviously willing to put in the work in the weight room and improve his game is definitely a positive. The fact that he's worked hard AND succeeded is another positive. I think Moran has a chance to be Sean Casey, but it's more likely he's a pretty ordinary MLB player in my opinion. He certainly classifies as a "safe" pick this year in the top 5 overall.


Your the man. Good info OB.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Mon May 27, 2013 2:17 am

I'm of the belief that Moran won't stick at third. IMO, ultimately, he'll land at first. Whoever drafts him will probably give him every chance to succeed at third initially. I just don't feel his defense will be on par to stay at third.

At the plate, he has good discipline and he'll draw his walks. He SHOULD have a solid OBP throughout his career. I might be pessimistic, but I see him as a .280 hitter. Some say he has the ability to hit over .300.. I'm not sure I see it. Maybe once or twice? I wouldn't put it out of the question. I see him as a 15 home run a year guy.. maybe 30 doubles.

Like I said, I don't view him as highly as some do, so my projections could lean pessimistic.. but at #5.. a guy who will hit .280/15 hr and first base.. meh. I just think there's more upside to be had elsewhere.
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3110
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon May 27, 2013 7:57 am

A.Zajac wrote:I'm of the belief that Moran won't stick at third. IMO, ultimately, he'll land at first. Whoever drafts him will probably give him every chance to succeed at third initially. I just don't feel his defense will be on par to stay at third.

At the plate, he has good discipline and he'll draw his walks. He SHOULD have a solid OBP throughout his career. I might be pessimistic, but I see him as a .280 hitter. Some say he has the ability to hit over .300.. I'm not sure I see it. Maybe once or twice? I wouldn't put it out of the question. I see him as a 15 home run a year guy.. maybe 30 doubles.

Like I said, I don't view him as highly as some do, so my projections could lean pessimistic.. but at #5.. a guy who will hit .280/15 hr and first base.. meh. I just think there's more upside to be had elsewhere.

I completely agree, seems like there is a consensus among several of us on Colin Moran.

So far every indication is the Tribe will go BPA, as they should. Colin Moran doesn't fit the profile of middle of the diamond players the Tribe usually goes after. It seems, at least IMHO, that the best talent is from the HS ranks... Frazier, Meadows, McGuire, Stewart and Ball. I think it's easy to project more from these five than some of the other options, such as... Moran, Stanek, Shipley and Peterson.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Mon May 27, 2013 10:03 am

Moran VS Papi, Bolt, Stubbs, Lassiter:

http://www.virginiasports.com/sports/m- ... mcume.html


http://www.goheels.com/ViewContent.dbml ... _ID=392946

Papi, Bolt & Lassiter are too young for this draft but speak to the relative "youth" of Moran. Moran bat is mostly about OBP. Freshman Lassiter's is better, and Sophomore Papi's is much better. Stubbs is a Senior who isn't appearing on many top 300 lists but is arguably as good as Moran, albeit almost 2 yrs older. Bolt is younger than Moran & a superior player in every way.

Another thig to consider is the level of competition. Other than the occasional Carlos Rodon, Buck Farmer, and a handful of others, most of the good pitching in the ACC, at least SP's, plays for UNC. Moran hasn't really faced pro-quality pitching except Rodon. I believe that the announcers of the game I saw said that Moran was hitless in his career against Rodon.

Just a few other things. Moran has 9 doubles in 235 AB & a total of 24 XBH. We're often told that a high doubles total might evolve into more HR's later. Moran hits the ball on the ground. There doesn't seem to be a lot of natural lift to his swing. He's definitely not going to stick at 3B. So what you're looking at is a mostly singles hitting 1B with a lot of walks who struggles against premier pitching. Not what I want at #5.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue May 28, 2013 11:08 am

As the time approaches for the 2013 Rule IV draft, the Indians choice (assuming Appel & Gray are both selected) will be decided by whoever remains unselected from Kris Bryant, Kohl Stewart and Clint Frazier, probably, in that order. Austin Meadows Braden Shipley, or Trey Ball (depending on how much the Indians realllllllllly like him) have a chance to sneak onto this list in the five spot, however, IMHO, those are the three the Indians will select.

In a perfect world, Kris Bryant gets the nod and the Indians have a guy who could see action in the ML by the end of the 2014 season. Bryant is just that good..

If Colin Moran is selection, this would represent a "settling of a pick" that manages the draft pool in such a way that it allows for spending scarce resources on lesser talents..and a mistake..
Last edited by GeronimoSon on Tue May 28, 2013 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
GeronimoSon
MLB Rookie
 
Posts: 3793
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Tue May 28, 2013 11:23 am

GeronimoSon wrote:As the time approaches for the 2013 Rule IV draft, the Indians choice (assuming Appel & Gray are both selected) will be decided by whoever remains unselected from Kris Bryant, Kohl Stewart and Clint Frazier, probably, in that order. Austin Meadows or Trey Ball (depending on how much the Indians realllllllllly like him) have a chance to sneak onto this list in the five spot, however, IMHO, those are the three the Indians will select.

In a perfect world, Kris Bryant gets the nod and the Indians have a guy who could see action in the ML by the end of the 2014 season. Bryant is just that good..

If Colin Moran is selection, this would represent a "settling of a pick" that manages the draft pool in such a way that it allows for spending scarce resources on lesser talents..and a mistake..


I agree it will be a mistake but I think it will be a mistake for other reasons. Just like the draft picks of Sowers, Aubrey, Huff, Crowe and Gutherie....Moran will make it to the show......He won't be great (like a #5 pick should be) but he'll make it....If Moran is the pick, it will be so the FO can say "look it was a successful pick because he made it". One thing I'll say is that philosophy has mostly gone out the window with Grant (except for maybe the Naquin pick).
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Tue May 28, 2013 12:22 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:As the time approaches for the 2013 Rule IV draft, the Indians choice (assuming Appel & Gray are both selected) will be decided by whoever remains unselected from Kris Bryant, Kohl Stewart and Clint Frazier, probably, in that order. Austin Meadows Braden Shipley, or Trey Ball (depending on how much the Indians realllllllllly like him) have a chance to sneak onto this list in the five spot, however, IMHO, those are the three the Indians will select.

In a perfect world, Kris Bryant gets the nod and the Indians have a guy who could see action in the ML by the end of the 2014 season. Bryant is just that good..

If Colin Moran is selection, this would represent a "settling of a pick" that manages the draft pool in such a way that it allows for spending scarce resources on lesser talents..and a mistake..


Kris Bryant will be gone long before the Tribe selects. He's almost a lock at #3. To be honest, I think Kohl Stewart might go #4. I would LOVE Bryant, but that just isn't happening.

I agree with your premise on Moran.
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3110
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby adaree » Tue May 28, 2013 12:43 pm

How nice would it be for another team to select Moran ahead of us, so the Indians can't even be tempted with the idea of taking their favorite type of player? I've heard the Astros are considering taking him #1 overall as he would sign for well below slot value and they could spend more later in the draft. I can't even tell you how happy I'd be if that happened.
adaree
Undrafted Free Agent
 
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:30 am

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BrianM » Tue May 28, 2013 2:26 pm

adaree wrote:How nice would it be for another team to select Moran ahead of us, so the Indians can't even be tempted with the idea of taking their favorite type of player? I've heard the Astros are considering taking him #1 overall as he would sign for well below slot value and they could spend more later in the draft. I can't even tell you how happy I'd be if that happened.


More and more draft people are mentioning Moran going in the top 3, potentially to any of those 3 teams. The consensus top 2 guys are still the pitchers, but these analysts and reporters keep mentioning how the Astros and the Cubs both may be leaning toward a bat, and it is never just Bryant being mentioned. They always go out of their way to say that teams are split on Bryant and Moran, and Moran could very well be the pick for any of those first 3 teams. I feel more of these writers are admitting that they really don't know whats going to happen on draft day compared to previous years.

I still doubt Moran goes top 3 though.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 28, 2013 5:05 pm

I hope he does it would at least push Clint Frazier to the Tribe, but that might happen if the Twins go McGuire or Shipley. Both are guys that have been linked to the Twins at four.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Tue May 28, 2013 6:57 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:I hope he does it would at least push Clint Frazier to the Tribe, but that might happen if the Twins go McGuire or Shipley. Both are guys that have been linked to the Twins at four.

Both of them & Stewart too. I believe we have a decent chance for Frazier. C'mon Grant!
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue May 28, 2013 7:53 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:I hope he does it would at least push Clint Frazier to the Tribe, but that might happen if the Twins go McGuire or Shipley. Both are guys that have been linked to the Twins at four.

Both of them & Stewart too. I believe we have a decent chance for Frazier. C'mon Grant!

Knew I forgot someone... Long day at work.

My big three for the Tribe is... Frazier, Meadows, Stewart in that order. I like the advanced bat from Frazier. Meadows has tools to dream on. Stewart legit FOR potential.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed May 29, 2013 1:52 pm

okay.. here goes the latest off the wall, odd ball, where is this coming from idea...

... or Trey Ball (depending on how much the Indians realllllllllly like him)...
Trey Ball.. at pick # 5. The question becomes.. how do the Indians develop him?.. As a soon to be 19 year old, LHSP, Trey has a 6'6" 190 pound frame that allows him to throw a low 90's FB on a downward plane (not the kind with propellers for Hermie). He also has a change up that he throws from same arm slot that is as deceptive as all get out. His curve is a bit looopy while his slider can be a nasty thing of beauty, on occasion. In short, as this extreme athlete matures and continues to develop the repertoire of a ML SP, he is only going to add to his Velo, depth and ability to repeat his delivery..

however...

what if the Indians try something that hasn't been done is a lonnnggggg while.. on days he's not starting.. what would be so wrong with him playing the OF?.. A corner OF..He's a helluva hitter.. In the ancient past.. this was considered the norm.. this kid has the kind of athleticism that he could possibly do both.. and do them well.. It would take a prosaic front office and a well established / experienced field staff to pull something like this off.. and the kid who becomes the guinea pig for this experiment.. can establish his uniqueness while wearing Chief Wahoo on his sleeve..
GeronimoSon
MLB Rookie
 
Posts: 3793
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby criznit2009 » Wed May 29, 2013 3:09 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:okay.. here goes the latest off the wall, odd ball, where is this coming from idea...

... or Trey Ball (depending on how much the Indians realllllllllly like him)...
Trey Ball.. at pick # 5. The question becomes.. how do the Indians develop him?.. As a soon to be 19 year old, LHSP, Trey has a 6'6" 190 pound frame that allows him to throw a low 90's FB on a downward plane (not the kind with propellers for Hermie). He also has a change up that he throws from same arm slot that is as deceptive as all get out. His curve is a bit looopy while his slider can be a nasty thing of beauty, on occasion. In short, as this extreme athlete matures and continues to develop the repertoire of a ML SP, he is only going to add to his Velo, depth and ability to repeat his delivery..

however...

what if the Indians try something that hasn't been done is a lonnnggggg while.. on days he's not starting.. what would be so wrong with him playing the OF?.. A corner OF..He's a helluva hitter.. In the ancient past.. this was considered the norm.. this kid has the kind of athleticism that he could possibly do both.. and do them well.. It would take a prosaic front office and a well established / experienced field staff to pull something like this off.. and the kid who becomes the guinea pig for this experiment.. can establish his uniqueness while wearing Chief Wahoo on his sleeve..


I know this isn't exactly what you meant, but take a look at an old St. Ed's alum... Stetson Allie. Seemed awfully quick to yank him from the pitching mound at the time but looking at him now - they (Pirates) might be on to something.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... lie-001ste
criznit2009
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Tue May 12, 2009 9:27 pm
Location: Portland, OR

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Wed May 29, 2013 3:46 pm

criznit2009 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:okay.. here goes the latest off the wall, odd ball, where is this coming from idea...

... or Trey Ball (depending on how much the Indians realllllllllly like him)...
Trey Ball.. at pick # 5. The question becomes.. how do the Indians develop him?.. As a soon to be 19 year old, LHSP, Trey has a 6'6" 190 pound frame that allows him to throw a low 90's FB on a downward plane (not the kind with propellers for Hermie). He also has a change up that he throws from same arm slot that is as deceptive as all get out. His curve is a bit looopy while his slider can be a nasty thing of beauty, on occasion. In short, as this extreme athlete matures and continues to develop the repertoire of a ML SP, he is only going to add to his Velo, depth and ability to repeat his delivery..

however...

what if the Indians try something that hasn't been done is a lonnnggggg while.. on days he's not starting.. what would be so wrong with him playing the OF?.. A corner OF..He's a helluva hitter.. In the ancient past.. this was considered the norm.. this kid has the kind of athleticism that he could possibly do both.. and do them well.. It would take a prosaic front office and a well established / experienced field staff to pull something like this off.. and the kid who becomes the guinea pig for this experiment.. can establish his uniqueness while wearing Chief Wahoo on his sleeve..


I know this isn't exactly what you meant, but take a look at an old St. Ed's alum... Stetson Allie. Seemed awfully quick to yank him from the pitching mound at the time but looking at him now - they (Pirates) might be on to something.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... lie-001ste


Don't make too much of what Allie is doing. Granted, I'm not the biggest fan of Keith Law, but he doesn't see much potential out of Allie as a hitter.
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3110
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby daingean » Wed May 29, 2013 4:43 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:okay.. here goes the latest off the wall, odd ball, where is this coming from idea...

... or Trey Ball (depending on how much the Indians realllllllllly like him)...
Trey Ball.. at pick # 5. The question becomes.. how do the Indians develop him?.. As a soon to be 19 year old, LHSP, Trey has a 6'6" 190 pound frame that allows him to throw a low 90's FB on a downward plane (not the kind with propellers for Hermie). He also has a change up that he throws from same arm slot that is as deceptive as all get out. His curve is a bit looopy while his slider can be a nasty thing of beauty, on occasion. In short, as this extreme athlete matures and continues to develop the repertoire of a ML SP, he is only going to add to his Velo, depth and ability to repeat his delivery..

however...

what if the Indians try something that hasn't been done is a lonnnggggg while.. on days he's not starting.. what would be so wrong with him playing the OF?.. A corner OF..He's a helluva hitter.. In the ancient past.. this was considered the norm.. this kid has the kind of athleticism that he could possibly do both.. and do them well.. It would take a prosaic front office and a well established / experienced field staff to pull something like this off.. and the kid who becomes the guinea pig for this experiment.. can establish his uniqueness while wearing Chief Wahoo on his sleeve..


If I was the devo manager for a NL club, I'd take my best pitching prospect and have him DH in a couple of games a week when he's not pitching. Pitchers that can hit can be a weapon in the NL. I remember Bobby Cox sending Glavine up to pinch hit because he was a better PH than some of the guys on the team.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1533
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby BrianM » Wed May 29, 2013 5:29 pm

BA Callis chat notes.

Alex (Columbus, Ohio): You have the Indians taking Moran at 5 and i have to ask why? Grants draft strat has been to take middle of the diamond guys over the last few years.

Jim Callis: I'll quibble with you on that because Chisenhall projected as a third baseman and Naquin projected as a right fielder. I'm hearing a lot of Moran at No. 5, the Indians take a lot of college players and I think they're more comfortable with him than the HS options.

Tony (Youngstown, Oh): any truth to the rumors Clevelands taking Trey Ball?

Jim Callis: If they take a pitcher, I think it would be Shipley or Ball.
BrianM
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed May 29, 2013 5:53 pm

Callis isn't EXACTLY telling the truth....

Lonnie was a SS that projected as a 3b, but there was an outside chance he'd stay at SS. As for Naquin he played RF bc of his arm and bc it presented the best opportunity for TX A&M to field a solid OF. The Tribe drafted Naquin with the intentions of developing him as a CF.

I'd like Trey Ball at 5, there are others I'd prefer (Frazier, Meadows, Stewart) but it's hard not to think what Ball could become...a FOR LHSP with potential to add some velocity as he fills in his frame. I think he could easily be up to 94-95 in two / three yrs and a few more lbs on his frame.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2274
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed May 29, 2013 7:58 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Callis isn't EXACTLY telling the truth....

Lonnie was a SS that projected as a 3b, but there was an outside chance he'd stay at SS. As for Naquin he played RF bc of his arm and bc it presented the best opportunity for TX A&M to field a solid OF. The Tribe drafted Naquin with the intentions of developing him as a CF.

I'd like Trey Ball at 5, there are others I'd prefer (Frazier, Meadows, Stewart) but it's hard not to think what Ball could become...a FOR LHSP with potential to add some velocity as he fills in his frame. I think he could easily be up to 94-95 in two / three yrs and a few more lbs on his frame.

I'd be happy with Ball, helluv an athlete, 6.70 runner, bit of a longer development guy on the mound. Big upside though. Kaminsky would move fastest (IMO) as a HS pitcher, Clarkin & Wesely kinda in the middle. I'm not sure if you couldn't get a comparable HS pitcher at 79, Oakley maybe. Do like the idea of the ABM (Anyone But Moran)* pick.

*TM
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: 2013 MLB Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Wed May 29, 2013 8:37 pm

Been meaning to post this but keep forgetting. This is a guy we should target:

http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Play ... ?ID=319879

His father was such a pain in the ass to the Tribe, I think a pre-emptive strike is in order.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Indians Prospect Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron