Prospect rankings 2012-2013

[MadThinker88]

Thanks for posting, always interesting to check out these lists!

No problem Marty. Btw- how would you adjust your earlier list posting with the addition of Bauer?? Fell free to edit you list if you want to.

[martyinnewyork]

To me, Bauer/Lindor/Paulino are interchangeable for 1-3. From there, today's #4 is tomorrow's #20. Not having seen many of the young guys makes it tough.

[artgold]

Geez MT88, how on earth did you find all of those rankings?

[GeronimoSon]

This year, unlike 2012, the top prospect list seems to be a bit easier to fill out. Some of the players that entered 2012 with significant expectations are still on the list.. Some haven't lived up to expectations and have bave either been traded or are still looking to improve... Without further verbage, the following is how I see the Indians farm system entering 2013:

1) Trevor Bauer, RHP
2) Francisco Lindor, SS
3) Dorssys Paulino, SS
4) Cody Allen, RHP
5) Scotty Barnes LHP
6) Trey Haley, RHP
7) Luigi Rodriguez, OF
8) Tony Wolters, 2B-SS
9) Ronnie Rodriguez, 2B-SS
10) Dillon Howard, RHP
11) Danny Salazar, RHP
12) Tyler Naquin, OF
13) Rob Bryson, RHP
14) Mitch Brown, RHP
15) Kieran Lovegrove, RHP
16) Alex Monsalve, C
17) Elvis Araujo, LHP
18) Giovanny Urshela, 3B
19) LeVon Washington, OF
20) D'vone McClure, OF

10 Pitchers, 5 Outfielders, 3 Middle Infielders, 1 Catcher. 1 corner infielders. Not exactly a balanced top 20....

Edit.. oops..thanks for catching the Luigi two times.. Ronnie at #9...

[MadThinker88]

This year, unlike 2012, the top prospect list seems to be a bit easier to fill out. Some of the players that entered 2012 with significant expectations are still on the list.. Some haven't lived up to expectations and have bave either been traded or are still looking to improve... Without further verbage, the following is how I see the Indians farm system entering 2013:

1) Trevor Bauer, RHP
2) Francisco Lindor, SS
3) Dorssys Paulino, SS
4) Cody Allen, RHP
5) Scotty Barnes LHP
6) Trey Haley, RHP
7) Luigi Rodriguez, OF
8) Tony Wolters, 2B-SS
9) Luigi Rodriguez, OF
10) Dillon Howard, RHP
11) Danny Salazar, RHP
12) Tyler Naquin, OF
13) Rob Bryson, RHP
14) Mitch Brown, RHP
15) Kieran Lovegrove, RHP
16) Alex Monsalve, C
17) Elvis Araujo, LHP
18) Giovanny Urshela, 3B
19) LeVon Washington, OF
20) D'vone McClure, OF

10 Pitchers, 5 Outfielders, 3 Middle Infielders, 1 Catcher. 1 corner infielders. Not exactly a balanced top 20....

Hey GSon, you listed Luigi Rodriguez twice and didn't rate Ronnie Rodriguez at all. Which of you Luigi's should have been Ronnie??

[MadThinker88]

Geez MT88, how on earth did you find all of those rankings?

Patience and careful research. not much else up here in WI unless I want to convert to Cheese / Beer Head

[Rocky55]

Since I'm too lazy to update my whole list, I'm putting Bauer #1 & moving everyone else down one slot.

This is pretty old but what the hell. For those who hadn't seen it yet:

http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/02 ... more-15265

Klima loves this kid & that's one hell of a recommendation.

[A.Zajac]

MLB Network/Mayo Top 50 notes:

Lindor ranked 14, Bauer 17 in MiLB. (FWIW, Skaggs ranked 10)

Lindor rankings present:
Hitting 4
Power 3
Running 5
Arm 6
Fielding 6
Overall 6

Lindor rankings future:
Hitting 7
Power 5
Running 5
Arm 6
Fielding 8
Overall 7

Bauer rankings present:
Fastball 6
Curveball 5
Slider 4
Changeup 4
Control 4
Overall 5

Bauer rankings future:
Fastball 7
Curveball 6
Slider 5
Changeup 5
Control 5
Overall 6

[MadThinker88]

Sorry everyone. I worked up my list just after new years and thought I had posted it. Reviewing the thread I see I hadn't so, here is my submission to 'the peanut gallery'.

1) Trevor Bauer, RHP
2) Francisco Lindor, SS
3) Dorssys Paulino, SS
4) Ronnie Rodriguez, SS
5) Mitch Brown, RHP
6) Cody Allen, RHP
7) Tyler Naquin, OF
8) Danny Salazar, RHP
9) Tony Wolters, 2B-SS
10) Jose Ramierez, 2B
11) Jesus Aguilar, 1B
12) Nick Hagadone, LHP
13) Dylan Baker, RHP
14) Scott Barnes LHP
15) LeVon Washington, OF
16) Shawn Armstrong, RHP
17) Giovanni Soto, LHP
18) Jordan Smith, OF
19) Luigi Rodriguez, OF
20) Dillon Howard, RHP
21) C.C. Lee, RHP
22) Tim Fedroff, OF
23) D'vone McClure, OF
24) Kieran Lovegrove, RHP
25) Bryson Myles, OF

[GeronimoSon]

Nice article at MiLB.com via Lets Go Tribe website regarding Francisco Lindor:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ym ... d=tw_share

[A.Zajac]

Keith Law released his top 100 prospects today..

Lindor ranked 7th! Bauer ranked 25, Paulino 56, Jose Ramirez Honorable Mention.

Law actually raves about Lindor.

[criznit2009]

Keith Law released his top 100 prospects today..

Lindor ranked 7th! Bauer ranked 25, Paulino 56, Jose Ramirez Honorable Mention.

Law actually raves about Lindor.

Wow - 7th is pretty impressive even for Law. And look at Paulino, shooting up the charts. Personally I think Paulino has massive potential and I like him as a prospect more than Lindor but its by a hair. Bauer at 25. It kinda unfair how Bauer disrupts the tribes prospect rankings, seeing how he might not end up throwing a single minor league pitch for the tribe - but any way... As list start rolling out, many will have 3 or 4 SS-types in the tribes top 10. Huge year for minor league hitters as many of them find themselves in that "next step" year. Pithcers, well thats another story...

[A.Zajac]

Some definite differences in top tens.. Mayo vs. Law

Law / Mayo

1. Lindor / Lindor
2. Bauer / Bauer
3. Paulino / Paulino
4. Salazar / R. Rodriguez
5. J. Ramirez / Brown
6. Naquin / Naquin
7. Brown / Wolters
8. Lovegrove / Salazar
9. R. Rodriguez / J. Ramirez
10. Wolters / Howard

[Rocky55]

Some definite differences in top tens.. Mayo vs. Law

Law / Mayo

1. Lindor / Lindor
2. Bauer / Bauer
3. Paulino / Paulino
4. Salazar / R. Rodriguez
5. J. Ramirez / Brown
6. Naquin / Naquin
7. Brown / Wolters
8. Lovegrove / Salazar
9. R. Rodriguez / J. Ramirez
10. Wolters / Howard

Looks pretty close to me. Same top 3, on which everyone agrees. Law has Lovegrove, Mayo has Howard. Both of them over-rate Naquin(IMO). As a Tribe fan I think that the top 3 are mortal locks to be All-Stars . The rest of the system is boom/bust. Hope for the boom.

[criznit2009]

Without a doubt most people (and 99-100% of EVERY professional) with rank Lindor, Bauer and Paulino in some order in the top 3 sopts. Prolly 4-5 other names in most those top 10 list, but really anything after #5 or so on most list IMO, is as Rocky so excellently put; pretty much - Boom or Bust.

Ronny Rod might be the next best hitter after Paulino. I love Ronny Rod but he hes no guarantee. Aguliar didn't overly impress but he didn't go down in flames. I like him, gotta be #20 even on a skeptics list. Wolters bounced back after a horrible start, it will be interesting to see if his power is truly increasing, adds MAJOR value. After a terrible 2011 at lake county Urshela had an "interesting" showing in Carolina, already considered a quality defender, continued offensive improvement drastically improves his status.

IMO this year is a major one in the developement of hitters in the system, A-ball is gonna make the players, but in Akron is where the real show is this year. Which AA type guys are going to break through this year? You could make a case for several players this year easily, unlike 2012 which lacked upper level hitting for the most part. Tons of talent in A-ball ready to impress, can't wait to see which hitters elevate their game.

[skydancing8]

I feel like R-Rod is slightly undervalued by the masses. I believe that Jim Pete said near the end of last season that R-Rod should have had 25+ HR due to the high fences at the home field. I feel like if he did have those 25 HRs everyone would be raving abuot him much like they do about Lindor and Paulino now. Hopefully he can produce at the AA level this year and his stock will skyrocket because of it.

[homerawayfromhome]

I'm a fan of Ronnie Rodriguez but I expect he will struggle a bit making the transition to AA. I do think he can handle AA but he seems to take a little while to adjust to each level. Sme guys take off running, others have to work their way through it. I think he will be fine and post something like... .250 - .260 ba 12 hr 20 dbl 20 sb.

[BrianM]

I feel like R-Rod is slightly undervalued by the masses. I believe that Jim Pete said near the end of last season that R-Rod should have had 25+ HR due to the high fences at the home field. I feel like if he did have those 25 HRs everyone would be raving abuot him much like they do about Lindor and Paulino now. Hopefully he can produce at the AA level this year and his stock will skyrocket because of it.

I remember reading that Jim article too and was thinking the same things. He could very easily be the breakout player in our system this year. I would love to see him hit 20 hrs next year in Akron, but I would rather see him improve his defense and prove he can play SS in the ML. 20 hrs is great for a SS, pretty good for a 2nd basemen, but only above average for an OF.

[MadThinker88]

Anyone get their copy of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook yet??
I have to head into the post office itself and pay some additionally postage before I can have mine. Likely due to needing to be forwarded to my new address in Wisconsin. @:(&!?(:@&! Post office.

[Rocky55]

Anyone get their copy of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook yet??
I have to head into the post office itself and pay some additionally postage before I can have mine. Likely due to needing to be forwarded to my new address in Wisconsin. @:(&!?(:@&! Post office.

You moved from Cleve to Wisconsin? What's next, the North Pole?

[MadThinker88]

Anyone get their copy of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook yet??
I have to head into the post office itself and pay some additionally postage before I can have mine. Likely due to needing to be forwarded to my new address in Wisconsin. @:(&!?(:@&! Post office.

You moved from Cleve to Wisconsin? What's next, the North Pole?

Considering I am further north than Green Bay, I'm not entirely sure I am already at the North Pole given some of the weather in January. At this point 25 degrees feels balmy and I'm ready to wear shorts.

[MadThinker88]

Picked up the book on Monday. Signing of Bourn taking all my focus tonight.
I'll look to post the rest of the top 31 names sometime Tuesday or Wednesday.

[Hermie13]

Some definite differences in top tens.. Mayo vs. Law

Law / Mayo

1. Lindor / Lindor
2. Bauer / Bauer
3. Paulino / Paulino
4. Salazar / R. Rodriguez
5. J. Ramirez / Brown
6. Naquin / Naquin
7. Brown / Wolters
8. Lovegrove / Salazar
9. R. Rodriguez / J. Ramirez
10. Wolters / Howard

Wait, Law has Salazar at 4 and J-Ram at 5....but lists Ramirez at an honorable mention top 100 but not Salazar?? Or was there a typo there?? Or did Law really do that?

[Hermie13]

Keith Law released his top 100 prospects today..

Lindor ranked 7th! Bauer ranked 25, Paulino 56, Jose Ramirez Honorable Mention.

Law actually raves about Lindor.

Lindor top 10 is aggressive but I am a believer. Think he is clearly #1 in our organization. A future Jeter/Rollins type of franchise SS.

[criznit2009]

Keith Law released his top 100 prospects today..

Lindor ranked 7th! Bauer ranked 25, Paulino 56, Jose Ramirez Honorable Mention.

Law actually raves about Lindor.

Lindor top 10 is aggressive but I am a believer. Think he is clearly #1 in our organization. A future Jeter/Rollins type of franchise SS.

3 guys are neck and neck - I prolly like Paulino a little more than some/most.

i put something like this

Paulino 35.5% - can't wait to see his stat line. Might not stick at SS which hurts a little but is the best young hitter in awhile IMO.
Lindor 34.5% - good 1st year - but not as good as I wanted. He will have to hit better (POP POP) in 2013 to remain at 1-2. Also do the wheels tighten up or do they fall off? Yes he is young, but for everyone who says that - Paulino is younger (probably).
Bauer 30% - tough because i know lilttle about him, and his unorthodox routine. SHould spend a chunk of time in the ML this year, maybe all of it.
Drop-off

[homerawayfromhome]

Here's my top 10
1 Bauer
2 Lindor
3 Paulino
4 RRodriguez
5 Brown
6 Naquin
7 Wolters
8 JRamirez
9 Salazar
10 Allen

Others: Lovegrove, Barnes, Armstrong, Aguilar

[A.Zajac]

Some definite differences in top tens.. Mayo vs. Law

Law / Mayo

1. Lindor / Lindor
2. Bauer / Bauer
3. Paulino / Paulino
4. Salazar / R. Rodriguez
5. J. Ramirez / Brown
6. Naquin / Naquin
7. Brown / Wolters
8. Lovegrove / Salazar
9. R. Rodriguez / J. Ramirez
10. Wolters / Howard

Wait, Law has Salazar at 4 and J-Ram at 5....but lists Ramirez at an honorable mention top 100 but not Salazar?? Or was there a typo there?? Or did Law really do that?

No, Law really did do that.

[homerawayfromhome]

Some definite differences in top tens.. Mayo vs. Law

Law / Mayo

1. Lindor / Lindor
2. Bauer / Bauer
3. Paulino / Paulino
4. Salazar / R. Rodriguez
5. J. Ramirez / Brown
6. Naquin / Naquin
7. Brown / Wolters
8. Lovegrove / Salazar
9. R. Rodriguez / J. Ramirez
10. Wolters / Howard

Wait, Law has Salazar at 4 and J-Ram at 5....but lists Ramirez at an honorable mention top 100 but not Salazar?? Or was there a typo there?? Or did Law really do that?

No, Law really did do that.

I'm surprised he had any Indians on his list. The way he sounds the Tribe is the worst org. in all of baseball, I hate his bias against the Tribe. Frankly, I just don't get it...I'm surprised he didn't try to grandstand once again and throw in something like the "racist logo" or something to that effect, OR... Like he did the other day (Tribe signed Bourn) tagging a link to an article, the Indians need to change their name. Sorry for the rant...

[MadThinker88]

Here's my top 10
1 Bauer
2 Lindor
3 Paulino
4 RRodriguez
5 Brown
6 Naquin
7 Wolters
8 JRamirez
9 Salazar
10 Allen

Others: Lovegrove, Barnes, Armstrong, Aguilar

Thanks for that listing Homer.

[homerawayfromhome]

Here's my top 10
1 Bauer
2 Lindor
3 Paulino
4 RRodriguez
5 Brown
6 Naquin
7 Wolters
8 JRamirez
9 Salazar
10 Allen

Others: Lovegrove, Barnes, Armstrong, Aguilar

Thanks for that listing Homer.

Bauer in my mind has to be number 1. A potential Ace SP trumps an AS SS such as Lindor could be, that being said Paulino is close on his heels. The 4-10 slots are close as well but it's an obvious drop off in talent from 3 to 4. I probably value RRod more than some bc I think he's produced at a high level at a young age. I won't be shocked to see him struggle a bit with the jump to AA, but I think this kid can play and be an everyday ML qlty player, but I'm not convinced he stays at SS. He could be an OF or 2b. I don't see Naquin as much more than he is, low ceiling / high floor. He's another guy I think can (possibly - fringe) be an everyday OF. Tony Wolters is a guy I'm really impressed with, he made huge strides in my mind last season. JRamirez what can I say? He just hits, he's a baseball player in the classic sense. Salazar, I'm weary of him, big time power arm with a smaller frame. His stuff says SP, but I'm concerned he may wear down or break down as a SP. Allen is a guy I think could be the closer if the future. The others category, guys I considered for the ten spot. Lovegrove pitched well in his debut, he's a guy I think could be a serious rankings climber in the future. Scott Barnes is he a LHSP or LHRP? If he's a SP he gets the ten spot, I think he could be, but I think he could be a lights out bullpen arm. Obviously, SP is more valuable and the uncertainty how he's developed drops him in my mind. Armstrong another potential lights out type bullpen arm with closer potential. Aguilar, I have to admit I'm cooling on Aguilar as a prospect. He could get bogged down, but I'm not convinced he will.

[criznit2009]

Well here is my list, so hard to rank after #4 IMO. I like Ronny Rod and clearly his bat looks legit as far as hitting with purpose, and i think he will end up in most top ten lists, closer to the top.
Also, it's amazing the difference a year makes... Araujo and Sterling both were considered nice SP prospects, but a horrible 2011 flushes them right down the list. They are down but not out...well they are out of the top 10 or close to it, but they - Sterling in particular could rebound nicely. All the Washington lovers got bounced by 2011, almost entirely injury based. But as far as prospects goes in football parlance, he has gone from probable to doubtful. He has a lot of raw ability no doubt, but now it really is about producing and not potential.
To summarize 2012 wasn't a good year for Indian prospects/minor leaguers in general. There were bright spots, J-Ram and obviously Paulino for examples, but a lot of treading water and confusing stats to really know who might break out in 2013.


IF you read that thanks, please comment and on to the list

1. Paulino - his hit skill is amazing, if he grows into an average/above avg. SS he is golden
2. Lindor - great upside - arguably our #1, but i think a lot of that could be because he was such a high draft pick. He will have to hit better next year to keep Paulino from passing him in 2014.
3. Bauer -pretty much ready for the show. He's got the stuff, but only one way to find out if it's ML stuff.
The top 3 are so close IMO, depending on how you value attributes/stats/whatever.
4. Ronny Rodriguez
5. Salazar
6. Brown
7. Wolters - might be this years breakout surprise - POP POP
8. Cody Allen - stupid that this techincally correct as he will be a ML player
9. J- Ram. If he steals bases like he did in winter ball, look out.
10. Naquin - hated this pick, but his #1 round status and his dinky hit tool and cannon arm..........uggg..
11. Lovegrove
12. Baker
13. Barnes - he will be a ML pitcher this year on opening day. If he goes to AAA...It mean he is starting or sucking.
14. CC Lee - looked like our best bullpen prospect last year but TJ came along.
15. Aguilar - another hitter who could move up fast if he hits for power and trims some K's.
16. Luigi Rodriguez
17. Urshela - risky but showed offensive promise last year
18. McCLure
19. Santander - could be higher could be lower, this is a total guess but put up good numbers in his 1st taste IMO
20. Lugo - 1st edit.
21. Haley - wow he finally made it back up into my top 20. Only if he starts, otherwise it is Fedroff, who hit for a little bit of power in Cbus last year plus his overall stat line....WHOOPS nevermind..

Young, unproven pitchers get a little more love this year, considering....

I am sure I have missed people and feel free to note who I might have missed I might want to make adjustments. It was so hard to rank this year. Hopefully we will see some blossoming this year, something that lacked in 2012 overall.

I really enjoy seeing all the list posters and other posted list every year, but this year with so many uncertainties it could be a make or break year for the system overall. Most top guys are young, so many ???'s abound, can't wait to see who breaks out.

[MadThinker88]

Picked up the book on Monday. Signing of Bourn taking all my focus tonight.
I'll look to post the rest of the top 31 names sometime Tuesday or Wednesday.

First off, the book must have gone to print before the Choo trade as Bauer is still listed with Arizona. As such the Tribe organization is listed 24th overall. Have to assume Bauer would have moved the Tribe into the 11-20 range. It should be noted that each BA writer ranked Bauer ahead of Lindor.

Now onto the rest of the Tribe's list:
11. Scott Barnes, lhp
12. Luis Lugo, lhp
13. Anthony Santander, of
14. Trey Haley, rhp
15. D'Vone McClure, of
16. Dylan Baker, rhp
17. Tony Wolters, 2b/SS
18. Chris McGuiness, 1b
19. Tim Fedroff, of
20. Shawn Armstrong, rhp
21. Kieran Lovegrove, rhp
22. Giovanny Urshela, 3b
23. Jose Ramirez, 2b
24. Austin Adams, rhp
25. Dillon Howard, rhp
26. Elvis Araujo, lhp
27. Yan Gomes, c/1b/3b
28. Thomas Neal, of
29. Cody Anderson, rhp
30. Jordan Smith, of
31. Josh Schubert, of

I would encourage everyone to go out and get a copy of the book for themselves. Enjoy.

[BrianM]

Well here is my list, so hard to rank after #4 IMO. I like Ronny Rod and clearly his bat looks legit as far as hitting with purpose, and i think he will end up in most top ten lists, closer to the top.
Also, it's amazing the difference a year makes... Araujo and Sterling both were considered nice SP prospects, but a horrible 2011 flushes them right down the list. They are down but not out...well they are out of the top 10 or close to it, but they - Sterling in particular could rebound nicely. All the Washington lovers got bounced by 2011, almost entirely injury based. But as far as prospects goes in football parlance, he has gone from probable to doubtful. He has a lot of raw ability no doubt, but now it really is about producing and not potential.
To summarize 2012 wasn't a good year for Indian prospects/minor leaguers in general. There were bright spots, J-Ram and obviously Paulino for examples, but a lot of treading water and confusing stats to really know who might break out in 2013.


IF you read that thanks, please comment and on to the list

1. Paulino - his hit skill is amazing, if he grows into an average/above avg. SS he is golden
2. Lindor - great upside - arguably our #1, but i think a lot of that could be because he was such a high draft pick. He will have to hit better next year to keep Paulino from passing him in 2014.
3. Bauer -pretty much ready for the show. He's got the stuff, but only one way to find out if it's ML stuff.
The top 3 are so close IMO, depending on how you value attributes/stats/whatever.
4. Ronny Rodriguez
5. Salazar
6. Brown
7. Wolters - might be this years breakout surprise - POP POP
8. Cody Allen - stupid that this techincally correct as he will be a ML player
9. J- Ram. If he steals bases like he did in winter ball, look out.
10. Naquin - hated this pick, but his #1 round status and his dinky hit tool and cannon arm..........uggg..
11. Lovegrove
12. Baker
13. Barnes - he will be a ML pitcher this year on opening day. If he goes to AAA...It mean he is starting or sucking.
14. CC Lee - looked like our best bullpen prospect last year but TJ came along.
15. Aguilar - another hitter who could move up fast if he hits for power and trims some K's.
16. Luigi Rodriguez
17. Urshela - risky but showed offensive promise last year
18. McCLure
19. Santander - could be higher could be lower, this is a total guess but put up good numbers in his 1st taste IMO
20. Lugo - 1st edit.
21. Haley - wow he finally made it back up into my top 20. Only if he starts, otherwise it is Fedroff, who hit for a little bit of power in Cbus last year plus his overall stat line....WHOOPS nevermind..

Young, unproven pitchers get a little more love this year, considering....

I am sure I have missed people and feel free to note who I might have missed I might want to make adjustments. It was so hard to rank this year. Hopefully we will see some blossoming this year, something that lacked in 2012 overall.

I really enjoy seeing all the list posters and other posted list every year, but this year with so many uncertainties it could be a make or break year for the system overall. Most top guys are young, so many ???'s abound, can't wait to see who breaks out.

Completely agree about the first part. Last year we went into the season wondering which guys may or may not breakout, but nothing has really changed this year with those players. Were adding all the recent draft picks to all the former draft picks. It will be a very interesting year to follow our minor league teams. I also agree that it really was a down year for the club. Sterling, Araujo, Washington, Aguilar, Lowry, Luigi Rod, Howard, and Moncrief were all guys who had potential to bloom into top 2-10 guys, and they went backward. Knapp retiring also was a bummer. We really have to root for guys like Howard, Luigi Rod, RRod, Urshela, Moncrief, Brown, and especially Paulino and Lindor to have breakout years this year.

[daingean]

I like Paulino's offensive abilities but I prefer Lindor's defense at SS. It's not that I don't think Paulino can play ML SS but I think a good defender at SS is gold. Also think Bauer being near ML ready and a FOR pitcher puts him at the top:

1. Bauer
2. Lindor (defense at a D position + 1 rung of the ladder higher than Paulino)
3. Paulino
4. R-Rod - see a future RF here
5. Allen - MLB experience and meteoric rise = impressive
6. Wolters - projecting as a super sub
7, J-Ram
8. Brown
9. Barnes (if he can be converted to SP)
10. Haley (as a SP)

If Barnes or Haley are relegated to the BP then move Luigi, Salazar up the list)

My big breakout candidates are one of the catchers: Haase or Lavisky and comeback prospect is Arujo

[criznit2009]

I like Paulino's offensive abilities but I prefer Lindor's defense at SS. It's not that I don't think Paulino can play ML SS but I think a good defender at SS is gold. Also think Bauer being near ML ready and a FOR pitcher puts him at the top:

1. Bauer
2. Lindor (defense at a D position + 1 rung of the ladder higher than Paulino)
3. Paulino
4. R-Rod - see a future RF here
5. Allen - MLB experience and meteoric rise = impressive
6. Wolters - projecting as a super sub
7, J-Ram
8. Brown
9. Barnes (if he can be converted to SP)
10. Haley (as a SP)

If Barnes or Haley are relegated to the BP then move Luigi, Salazar up the list)

My big breakout candidates are one of the catchers: Haase or Lavisky and comeback prospect is Arujo

Good list and it just shows how varied opinions are this year. I rank Allen a little lower, but easily could be #5. I am a little surprised by Haley being so high though, even as a starter. Though he has bounced back and found some success as a BP guy, he still has control issues to say the least. He wasn't a good starter at all in LC, but I definitely hope they give him a chance to start in AA this year. Just not convinced (yet) he will ever get the BB's under control enough to stick as a SP. Personally I think he could top out as a good/great late inning guy, but a total "wild"card at this point. He is sort of in the same boat as Washington is, product trumps possibilty now, real progress must be made. Then again he could excel when returned to the starting rotation. His stuff is some of the best in the system, but he hasn't been able to control it effectively. A major turn around on Haleys part, has me eating my words quickly.

I hope Barnes starts the year in AAA as a starter, or a ML bullpen guy. NOT A AAA BULLPEN GUY.

Catcher is a major weakness in the system. Bringing in Gomes helped, but I don't think he is viewed as an everyday catcher. Possibly a good offensive minded bench/back-up/(everyday 1B type?) though. Ranking-wise Charlie Valerio (still learning) and Haase are guys I like. Hmm might have to pencil Valerio into my list somewhere..

[homerawayfromhome]

Jeremy Lucas is a guy I think could help the C situation in a few yrs. nothing outstanding but could be a big league back up / fringe starter if he develops, IMHO.

[daingean]

Good list and it just shows how varied opinions are this year. I rank Allen a little lower, but easily could be #5. I am a little surprised by Haley being so high though, even as a starter. Though he has bounced back and found some success as a BP guy, he still has control issues to say the least. He wasn't a good starter at all in LC, but I definitely hope they give him a chance to start in AA this year. Just not convinced (yet) he will ever get the BB's under control enough to stick as a SP. Personally I think he could top out as a good/great late inning guy, but a total "wild"card at this point. He is sort of in the same boat as Washington is, product trumps possibilty now, real progress must be made. Then again he could excel when returned to the starting rotation. His stuff is some of the best in the system, but he hasn't been able to control it effectively. A major turn around on Haleys part, has me eating my words quickly.

I hope Barnes starts the year in AAA as a starter, or a ML bullpen guy. NOT A AAA BULLPEN GUY.

Catcher is a major weakness in the system. Bringing in Gomes helped, but I don't think he is viewed as an everyday catcher. Possibly a good offensive minded bench/back-up/(everyday 1B type?) though. Ranking-wise Charlie Valerio (still learning) and Haase are guys I like. Hmm might have to pencil Valerio into my list somewhere..

One thing I remember about Haley's stints at Lake County was that the Indians almost took away his FB so that he'd work on his secondary pitches (read that in one of Tony's MH's) which makes the BB's at LC a little deceiving. Then the sports hernia affected him (something like that would affect control). I ranked him so high because at AA he is more advanced than several of the other pitchers in the org and he had a good Arizona Fall League. With prospects its all about projection and I think Haley is going to see his control improve and get there. I will admit that I did rank him higher because I wanted some pitchers on my list (same goes for Barnes) and need makes a prospect more valuable to me

[GeronimoSon]

Reasons for my top ten.....

1) Trevor Bauer, RHP: Is the Indians # 1 because he's got the talent;, skils, stuff to be exactly what the Indians have needed/wanted from the last five drafts: A front of the rotation starting pitcher.
2) Francisco Lindor, SS: is high on the list because he plays with swag, enthusiastically and has the skill set to exceed. He represents the best position player in the Indians system and is at a premium defensive position...
3) Dorssys Paulino, SS: One of the key indicators of a player's prospect position is age. Paulino has succeeded and excelled as the youngest player at each stop along his way to a ML career. He's the goods.. has tremendous bat speed, too. He needs to fix one thing about his game: plate discipline. He could be moved from SS as he has the jets to be an impact OF'er is the Indians decide to develop him that way..
4) Cody Allen, RHP: What can you say about a guy who gets draft, goes through four levels of the minor leagues and finishes with a stint in a ML bullpen?.. You say WOW!!. The was accomplished in 18 months.. Allen's ticket to the ML's was relatively simple to understand: He throws quality strikes..
5) Scotty Barnes LHP: Is rated at this level because he has the talent to be a left handed starting pitching version of Cody. The move to the pen to get better balance will prove to be invaluable experience for Scotty. If he remains in the pen, then his value may erode.
6) Trey Haley, RHP: The secret is out on Trey... he has a big arm & throws strikes. He has four or five pitches, but only two that he commands with aplomb: Two seam fastball that touches 96 and a four seam fastball that approaches triple digits. He has a late breaking slider that has some late snap to it and a curve ball that he trusts more. He throws a change up every odd numbered month. He could be in a ML bullpen to start the 2013 season. He should be in ours before the 2013 season is over. With his good command, he's a better Cody Allen.
7) Luigi Rodriguez, OF: A switch hitting 19 year old with jets that remind you of a young Kenny Lofton. Accomplishing what he's accomplished as a raw 19 year old for the Captains in Eastlake says. we need to know more about this guy. Because he's so young, Luigi only projects to being the next great CF'er for the Indians. You have to see how this skinny guy can swing the bat..& if he can put some weight on.. he could be a 30 / 30 guy at the highest level.
8) Tony Wolters, 2B-SS : Is sort of the red-headed step child of Shortstops within the Indians system. IMHO, he's the breakout candidate of the year for the Indians minor league system. He should be put at 2B for the duration starting this year, but, that shouldn't affect his true value: an offensive middle infielding DIRTBAG. Great hands and feet on this kid..
9) Ronnie Rodriguez, 2B-SS: The consensus (both on this thread & national pubs) has RRod rated as high as # 4 and as low as # 9 (there are a couple of outliers.. for example: Prospect 361 doesn't even rate him & Prospect Digest has him at # 12. The facts are very simple with him: he's a young fast athlete with excellent bat speed that portends future power, a extremely strong/accurate arm and wheels that play anywhere. He's a top of the order hitter at the very young age of 21. What he doesn't do is control himself/maintain self discipline. Not an easy characteristic to master as a young athlete. He has a lot to off the Indians and may see his star further shine in AA this season..
10) Dillon Howard, RHP: Rounds out my top ten or is included in my top ten for projection reasons more than actual results. Howard came out of high school in Searcy Arkansas with an easy mid nineties fastball, a curve, slider and an unrefined change up that showed flashes. He didn't pitch the year he was drafted and came into camp unprepared for the rigors of being a professional athlete. He's learning.. and he has a LOT to learn. He has the skills & talent to succeed. The 2012 season was an EYE OPENER for him as he's now realized that being a high school stud athlete and 50 cents gets you a small, warm cup of coffee at McDonald's..

Should be an interesting group of prospects.. I would expect to see some changes to the list as the 2013 season progresses. BTW, the exclusion of # 1 draft choice, Tyler Naquin, from this top ten prospect listing, isn't an accident.. He really needs to show that advanced bat/approach to make the list..

Thoughts/responses/other opinions?..

[homerawayfromhome]

Good list and it just shows how varied opinions are this year. I rank Allen a little lower, but easily could be #5. I am a little surprised by Haley being so high though, even as a starter. Though he has bounced back and found some success as a BP guy, he still has control issues to say the least. He wasn't a good starter at all in LC, but I definitely hope they give him a chance to start in AA this year. Just not convinced (yet) he will ever get the BB's under control enough to stick as a SP. Personally I think he could top out as a good/great late inning guy, but a total "wild"card at this point. He is sort of in the same boat as Washington is, product trumps possibilty now, real progress must be made. Then again he could excel when returned to the starting rotation. His stuff is some of the best in the system, but he hasn't been able to control it effectively. A major turn around on Haleys part, has me eating my words quickly.

I hope Barnes starts the year in AAA as a starter, or a ML bullpen guy. NOT A AAA BULLPEN GUY.

Catcher is a major weakness in the system. Bringing in Gomes helped, but I don't think he is viewed as an everyday catcher. Possibly a good offensive minded bench/back-up/(everyday 1B type?) though. Ranking-wise Charlie Valerio (still learning) and Haase are guys I like. Hmm might have to pencil Valerio into my list somewhere..

One thing I remember about Haley's stints at Lake County was that the Indians almost took away his FB so that he'd work on his secondary pitches (read that in one of Tony's MH's) which makes the BB's at LC a little deceiving. Then the sports hernia affected him (something like that would affect control). I ranked him so high because at AA he is more advanced than several of the other pitchers in the org and he had a good Arizona Fall League. With prospects its all about projection and I think Haley is going to see his control improve and get there. I will admit that I did rank him higher because I wanted some pitchers on my list (same goes for Barnes) and need makes a prospect more valuable to me

If Haley is a SP prospect he jumps to 4 on my list. I think he has FOR stuff, but are they going to develop him as SP going forward. Btw, from my understanding he had some mild shoulder discomfort and has been shut down for a few days.

[daingean]

If Haley is a SP prospect he jumps to 4 on my list. I think he has FOR stuff, but are they going to develop him as SP going forward. Btw, from my understanding he had some mild shoulder discomfort and has been shut down for a few days.

I think the Haley SP II experiment starts at AA in 2013. It's not written in stone that's where he'll be but the prospect of it happening is good enough for me to put him in my top 10.

The shoulder discomfort is always concerning but every pitchers are hurts in spring training. Hurt is different than injured. Here's hoping it's just him overdoing it a little too early.

[homerawayfromhome]

If Haley is a SP prospect he jumps to 4 on my list. I think he has FOR stuff, but are they going to develop him as SP going forward. Btw, from my understanding he had some mild shoulder discomfort and has been shut down for a few days.

I think the Haley SP II experiment starts at AA in 2013. It's not written in stone that's where he'll be but the prospect of it happening is good enough for me to put him in my top 10.

The shoulder discomfort is always concerning but every pitchers are hurts in spring training. Hurt is different than injured. Here's hoping it's just him overdoing it a little too early.

I think they almost have to move Haley back into the rotation to see if can be a SP. His value would sky rocket IMHO. I really like his stuff, he's tall and slim and could still fill out his frame a bit more. It seems like he's been in the system forever. But at 22 he's just hitting his near ready yrs. I think he could pitch out of the pen effectively at the big league level soon, but could take another yr plus to be big league ready as a SP. I think he only pitched near 40 innings last yr, off the top of my head so he needs to build durability.

[criznit2009]

Haley needs to be retunred to a starting role in 2013 I agree. He does have 2 excellent pitches - that are gonna K a lot of guys. But the walks and general control issues, 11 WP in 38.2 innings in '12 for example - absolutely need to be drastically reduced in 13 if he has any chance of re-establishing prospect value let alone any shot at becoming a SP in the ML

Also totally disagree that he could pitch in the ML in 13 for any team, but hey lets hope he actually starts living up to the hype.

[A.Zajac]

BA came out with their top 100 today..

14. Bauer
28. Lindor

That's it.


Lindor at 28 is a complete joke. Not to mention, most places have ranked Paulino in their Top 100. Heck, even KLaw did. Their Indians top 10 prospects also omits Jose Ramirez, which almost every other site has ranked in their top 10. Anyone else need more reasoning why BA is so shitty nowadays? Didn't think so.

[GeronimoSon]

BA came out with their top 100 today..

14. Bauer
28. Lindor

That's it.


Lindor at 28 is a complete joke. Not to mention, most places have ranked Paulino in their Top 100. Heck, even KLaw did. Their Indians top 10 prospects also omits Jose Ramirez, which almost every other site has ranked in their top 10. Anyone else need more reasoning why BA is so shitty nowadays? Didn't think so.

Lindor and Bauer in the top quartile seems appropriate. I would have thought both would be in the teens. The exclusion of Paulino is a snub.. He's clearly a mid 70's to "on the list" kind of prospect. Jose Ramirez: I didn't have ranked either as we've only seen about a half season of low A ball and a very nice winter.. <shrugs>

[OhioBaseball]

BA has certainly lost its prestige over the years, but it's mainly b/c their analysis and rankings are basically stolen by people that create their own websites, adjust BA's unique analysis/rankings to reflect their own opinions and spit it back out as their own material. It's a horrible business b/c there are no barriers to entry. People just copy their work and publish their own versions of it online for free. BA can't afford to keep their talent and the product has worsened over the years. That's the internet for you.

Most of these mock drafts you'll see online are just rip-offs of Baseball America's rankings. It's no coincidence that they all seem to pop up after BA releases their own draft top prospect lists. Most (if not all) mock drafts (are all published by people that have never even seen these guys actually play -- they get their material from BA, and to a lesser extent PG, but Perfect Game tends to be more cost prohibitive.

I respect BA and what it's done educating fans, but anyone can copy their work. It's a really tough business.

Regarding the rankings, I understand leaving Paulino off. I think Indians fans have gotten ahead of themselves on Paulino. I like Paulino -- he's an advanced bat and he's got some pretty good athleticism, but there's really not a ton of room for improvement outside of improvement through repetitions. I think Paulino's star will shine less as he moves up the minor league ladder and his peers comparatively improve more than he does through physical maturity. Paulino is advanced, which is great -- I think he's good prospect -- but there's just relatively less room for improvement in a guy like him. I remember loving JD Martin after two months of pro ball in Burlington. He lit the Appy league on fire, but he was (1) advanced for his age and (2) had two really good months. Not to say Paulino is JD Martin, but Paulino is not a knock-your-socks off projectable, toolsy shortstop. I'm excited about him, but I acknowledge that he's advanced for his age and two months vs. short-season competition isn't enough for me to think he's in the same league as Lindor (who is still quite young himself!)

[GeronimoSon]

OB.. I don't get your logic here.. Lindor is pretty young.. but still a year older than Dorsyss Paulino. Lindor spent the entire 2012 season at Lake Country at age 18.. Dorsyss Paulino is slated to spend the entire year w/ the Captains at age 18.. Lindor has a slightly better glove, Paulino has a rare quality bat.. both are superb prospects..

So, age/level of competition is virtually the same: 1 year 7 days apart in age (Lindor is older).. exact same level of competition for the age.

Both are some of the youngest prospects at the level they're playing as well.. As far as improvement goes.. If you've watch Paulino and Lindor.. they both are incredibly enthusiastic about learning and put in the work.. As far as JD Martin goes.. IDK what he has to do with this analogy..

[OhioBaseball]

OB.. I don't get your logic here.. Lindor is pretty young.. but still a year older than Dorsyss Paulino. Lindor spent the entire 2012 season at Lake Country at age 18.. Dorsyss Paulino is slated to spend the entire year w/ the Captains at age 18.. Lindor has a slightly better glove, Paulino has a rare quality bat.. both are superb prospects..

So, age/level of competition is virtually the same: 1 year 7 days apart in age (Lindor is older).. exact same level of competition for the age.

Both are some of the youngest prospects at the level they're playing as well.. As far as improvement goes.. If you've watch Paulino and Lindor.. they both are incredibly enthusiastic about learning and put in the work.. As far as JD Martin goes.. IDK what he has to do with this analogy..

JD Martin = an advanced teenage talent that dominated rookie league competition. He was less effective as he moved up the minor league ladder b/c his prior success was primarily due to polish at a young age. He dominated guys that were still learning how to play baseball. Once he began to pitch vs. batters that had learned how to hit, he didn't look quite as good. There are other factors at play for sure, but I hope you understand what I'm saying.

Some players do perform so well at young ages b/c they have developed skill and look comparatively better vs. other teenagers that are still learning the skill. I think Paulino is more polish than raw talent. I think his talents will look more ordinary if/when he gets to the MLB level. I think calling Paulino "superb" is premature.

Regarding the Lindor comparisons, Lindor is a very good athlete that I think can be a better hitter than he demonstrated in 2012 (I like his swing from both sides of the plate). He also has the aptitude to be a far better defender than Paulino. I don't think Paulino's bat is as "rare" as you do. I like Paulino, and I think he'll hit well in the minor leagues, but let's not get too carried away with two months of statistics (circling back to JD Martin analogy).

For the sake of reference: JD Martin in 2001; 46 IP, 26 H, 11 BB, 72 K. He turned out to be not so good. I'm sure there are hundreds of more examples of guys that crushed rookie ball and turned out to suck. I'm not saying Paulino's two months of rookie ball are worth nothing, but this is why I said I believe Indians fans are getting ahead of themselves on Paulino. Let's please not turn this into a "OB, why do you think Paulino sucks?" discussion, where I find myself responding to posts that have little to do with my original point.

Paulino's bat is his ticket. If he's 23 years old in Columbus batting .250 with 8 HR, he's not getting to the majors b/c he doesn't have anything else to fall back on. Lindor can do that and still be seen as an asset b/c his elite level of defensive talent. Since Paulino's offensive production is his ticket and we only have 2 months of a track record to look at his offensive production you can see why I'm not calling him "superb" just yet. Sample size.

[GeronimoSon]

OB.. it's not that I don't understand the analogy. i.e.. put an advanced polished SP@ ( e.g. He has a curve ball that finds the strike zone once in a while would qualify as being polished at) Mahoning Valley and he looks like he's setting the baseball world on fire. With Paulino, we just disagree.. He's not advanced artificially for his age or skills.. In fact he just uses his abilities better.. he's more raw than Lindor was in many ways.. but he has the tools (approach, wrists and hands, pitch recognition, arm strength, speed, baseball IQ, etc) & should be considered a valuable and nationally ranked prospect as an 18 year old at the full season low A level...

He'll be 19 / 20 when he's at AA/AAA and will be pounding on the door while hitting for both power and average while playing his defensive position / making it look easy.. This is a very talented young player with an unlimited ceiling that should be projected as one of the better prospects in MiLB... and it has very little to do with his sample size. .it's has to do with what he can do with a bat, with a glove on his hand and a ball that he fires across the diamond. ( BTW Jose Ramirez, if he was the subject of this discussion..I'd agree with you about sample size and single tool and the rest of your argument) but not with Paulino.. this kid is the goods..

[BrianM]

If you read through the chat, the guys mention that Paulino was in the next 5, and a couple other comments make me believe he was actually #101. Take it for what its worth, but they do seem to like him quite a bit. He could be a major riser next year.

[OhioBaseball]

He's not advanced artificially for his age or skills.. In fact he just uses his abilities better.. he's more raw than Lindor was in many ways...This is a very talented young player with an unlimited ceiling that should be projected as one of the better prospects in MiLB...

"unlimited ceiling", "should be projected as one of the better prospects in MiLB". You don't get the feeling you're overselling him...just a little??

I've seen clips of Paulino -- he's got a very quick bat and a nice swing. He's a good enough athlete to someday see him play in the middle infield in MLB. He's got good arm speed and I think his throws can carry pretty well. He runs well, too, but not plus speed. In terms of physical projection, there's really not much there for a teenager. His swing is a doubles kind of swing -- the bat speed is nice, but it's not a powerful swing that projects for significant power down the road. I've seen a lot of high upside, infield talent and Dorssys Paulino is NOT that type. There's really nothing flashy about Paulino; he's adequate in pretty much all respects but tools-wise nothing stands out. At the MLB level, I think he can run, throw and potentially field well enough to be adequate, but his only potential plus tool is his bat. The guy is a GOOD prospect and I think his good performance at such a young age is very encouraging, but I think he's got some limitations.

I have no subscriptions or prospect books to sell, so I've got nothing but my honest opinion so take it for what it's worth -- I look at a prospect like Francisco Lindor and I see a guy with plus MLB defensive tools that I believe could be bat .300 with 15+ HR's in MLB -- Lindor is a potential 5-tool player; he may never be that but he has that kind of upside. Regarding Paulino's realistic upside, I see a more athletic, trimmer Ronnie Belliard kind of player with a bit higher average. That's not a shot at Paulino -- Belliard was a nice player (good offensive 2b that could chip in a 3b) and Paulino could potentially chip in at SS the way Belliard did at 3b, but I just don't see see a ton of upside in Paulino.

One thing we've got to keep in the back of our minds while we're reading glowing scouting reports of minor league prospects is that MOST PROSPECTS FAIL, so sorry if I sound less than sold on Paulino's unlimited upside; it's not b/c I'm a hater its just that I'm trying to be realistic (I actually feel like a sucker saying potential 5-tooler on Lindor to be honest). Go back and look at top prospect lists from 5, 10, 15 years ago. There's a LOT of very well respected prospects from those lists that turned out to be not so good. It's actually quite laughable when you read some quotes. Of particular interest to Indians fans, an "NL scout" said of Casey Kotchman (#6 prospect overall) in 2005, "I think he'll easily hit 30+ homers in the majors". "There's nothing not to like about Andy Marte (#9 overall)" said Birmingham manager Razor Shines (I don't believe that's his real name, btw). Regarding a prospect named Joel Guzman (#5 overall) of the Dodgers, an AL scout said "He's Juan Gonzalez waiting to happen". That's just some quotes from guys in BA's top 10 from 2005. Other top 10 failures that year include Ian Stewart (#4) and arguably Delmon Young (#3) -- he was only a +1 WAR player once in his career. That's just the top 10 in all of baseball (only half turned out to be good MLB players). Obviously, the further down the list you go the worse it gets.

Baseball America wouldn't sell magazines if they just talked about how most of the guys they hype up would never live up to their potential, even if it's true. It's Marketing 101...you sell the sizzle, not the steak. So, sorry if I don't think Paulino has an "unlimited ceiling". That's not to say that minor league prospects aren't worth following, it's just that I'm not going to buy the sizzle.