MLB Hot Stove

[Edible14]

I keep thinking that Smoak might be on the move now. With Montero now committed to catcher (I guess), you have Smoak at 1B, Morales at DH, Bay/Ibanez in the corner OF spots and... Morse slotting in where? CF is presumably locked down between Saunders and Guttierez, and none of those guys are good CF candidates anyway. So there seems to be an extra part there (and don't forget that Thames is still on the roster).

I'm not sure I'd like acquiring Smoak. He reeks of failed prospect to me, and I'm not sure where there's room for optimism when he's already 26. His splits suggest that he'd do better away from Safeco (lifetime BABIP of .242 home, .271 away), even though he has a much better walk rate and k-rate at home. But even if you gave him his walk/k rate at home and his batting average/slugging on the road, you'd end up with an OPS below .720, sub-par for a 1B. If it was just for a reliever and Marson, that would be fine. If we're talking a grander trade involving Cabrera, then there had better be something better involved.

[homerawayfromhome]

Smoak would have to be purely a flier type pickup. If he's on the mkt and I think he is, he wouldn't be the key piece in any deal involving ACab but could be a decent secondary piece.

Only an example:

ACab for...

Paxton / Hultzen
Smoak
Furbush / Capps

[homerawayfromhome]

The Indians have more than enough utility players, it would seem. So, their interest in another veteran utility player does indicate other discussions very well might be in progress...makes total sense.

Why do they need more unless they have other plans? I agree it would seem the Indians might be in the mix for a big trade.
Masterson & A-Cab for ?????. You guys keep up with prospects of other teams (I don't too much).

But, why not make another huge trade? Although I love the changes the Tribe has made for far this off-season, it's not like the Indians are now set to win the World Series in 2013 or 2014. So, why not maximize a couple more key pieces for stronger current/and or Bauer-like starting pitching?

Who knows what or if anything will happen...but, I love this!

All speculation but what if the Tribe and Mariners hooked up, with the Mariners looking to score a return on the scale of Justin Upton.

Here's an idea of what something could look like...

Mariners get...

Masterson
ACab
Marson

Indians get...

Hultzen
Paxton / Maurer
Smoak
Furbush / Capps / Pryor
Franklin

No way I see anything like this happening, but I guess dream on it. Seems like something could be going down with the Tribe looking at adding some utility type help BUT I think we could read more into it than we should, might be nothing / might be ACab or Aviles getting traded.

[homerawayfromhome]

Sounds like the Tribe is trying to round things up a bit, trying to get some versatile bench pieces in place. FWIW, the Tribe reportedly has an offer out to Jim Thome (Tony on Twitter). That could be the reason the team is considering a few other versatile options for the bench.

[Hermie13]

don't see Gutierrez as a fit at all. We have Stubbs, a RH hitting CF who hits lefties and plays good defense. I would much rather get a lefty to compliment Stubbs in the OF. someone like Saunders. or a DeJesus from the Cubs or maybe a Will Venerable from SD.

[GeronimoSon]

don't see Gutierrez as a fit at all. We have Stubbs, a RH hitting CF who hits lefties and plays good defense. I would much rather get a lefty to compliment Stubbs in the OF. someone like Saunders. or a DeJesus from the Cubs or maybe a Will Venerable from SD.

The inclusion of Gutierrez is as a salary balancing veteran who, if healthy, can contribute to the success of the club he's going to.. While his health is yet to be determined, Gutierrez's appears to be finally in a good spot in that regard.. We also know that Gutierrez has a howitzer for an arm and can play all three outfield positions with aplomb... He's been in the VWL and has crushed the ball, played stellar defense and is preparing for a big 2013, his last guaranteed season on his current contract with the Mariners.

Just to be clear.. Right now the Indians have Tim Fedroff & Ezequiel Carrera slated as the two players battling for the fourth outfield spot.. and you see these two guys as a better fit that Franklin Gutierrez if a trade were to be consummated?..

note: this is where the equivocation begins...

[homerawayfromhome]

Is anyone hearing any trade chatter? I say this out of curiosity, I have not heard or seen anything and there is some (what seems like...) reasonable speculation that something is going on involving ACab. I'm just unclear if it all assumption based on the Tribes rumored interest in Ryan Theriot and Ryan Raburn. It could be simply the Tribe is looking for a utility type handcuff for a DH, to provide bench options if the Tribe were to sign Jim Thome, etc.

Btw, I like the idea of bringing Thome in especially if the Tribe were to make another move in which someone is traded. I get some of these younger guys need at bats and completely agree but at the same time Thome would be a solid bench presence and some LH pop from the DH spot. All that and he'd be a fan favorite.

[GeronimoSon]

Is anyone hearing any trade chatter? I say this out of curiosity, I have not heard or seen anything and there is some (what seems like...) reasonable speculation that something is going on involving ACab. I'm just unclear if it all assumption based on the Tribes rumored interest in Ryan Theriot and Ryan Raburn. It could be simply the Tribe is looking for a utility type handcuff for a DH, to provide bench options if the Tribe were to sign Jim Thome, etc.

Btw, I like the idea of bringing Thome in especially if the Tribe were to make another move in which someone is traded. I get some of these younger guys need at bats and completely agree but at the same time Thome would be a solid bench presence and some LH pop from the DH spot. All that and he'd be a fan favorite.

Homer.. I think what we'll see through the day today is the gnashing of teeth as arbitration offers and counter offers are accepted/rejected by players/agents and their respective Front Office. This will take up most of the usable time. Once the remaining four (Albers, Aviles, Masterson, & Joe Smith) decide which way they're going to go, then CA and the FO can begin to evaluate if they want to go to arbitration.. or if they're more inclined to TRADE the ungrateful FPOS's rather than negotiate a 100 or 300 % increase in salary with an arbitrator.. At least, that's what could be happening...

edit: Joe Smith is signed..four down.. three to go...
edit: There goes Albers and Masterson..Six down, one to go.... (Only Mike Aviles remains)...

[dazindiansfanuk]

Chris Perez - $7.3m
Joe Smith - $3.15m
Matt Albers - $1.75m
Masterson - Signed, figure not yet confirmed.

Only Aviles unsigned now.

[Edible14]

Chris Perez - $7.3m
Joe Smith - $3.15m
Matt Albers - $1.75m
Masterson - Signed, figure not yet confirmed.

Only Aviles unsigned now.

Using the new arby figures, I've come out to $61.175M for the players already under contract (including Swish, Santana, ACab, Reynolds, Bauer, Myers) using the projections to fill in (5.7 for Masterson, 2.3 for Aviles). Add 11 guys at league minimum for $5.5M, add the buyout for Hafner (2.75), and the money from the Bauer/Choo trade (3.5), and you get $72.925M as your budget for the year. So about $8M up on last year's payroll (I can't remember there being any significant buyouts/other expenditures for 2012, so I'm just using Cot's).

Probably not a whole lot left there to make a run at Lohse/Bourn.

[Edible14]

Smoak would have to be purely a flier type pickup. If he's on the mkt and I think he is, he wouldn't be the key piece in any deal involving ACab but could be a decent secondary piece.

Only an example:

ACab for...

Paxton / Hultzen
Smoak
Furbush / Capps

That would be fine, I think. Incidentally, the Mariners fan blogs I'm reading are melting down over this trade. The argument goes that Jaso isn't that much worse than Morse offensively, but he plays at a much more premium position that the club is actually thin at, and the move hurts the Mariners defense all around. How much of an offensive difference there is depends on a number of questions: do you think Morse will stay healthy, do you think that Jaso's inability to hit LH skews his numbers because he's sitting out against them, do you think Morse will be a worse hitter at Safeco, etc. But defensively, there is no argument to be had. The Mariners are a worse defensive team as a result of this trade.

They are now required to start one (possibly two of) Ibanez, Morse and Bay in the corner OF. None of those fellows are particularly good defenders, and probably should be DH. They also now have to start Montero at C, who has never received rave reviews about his defense at C (side note, with Kotteras being DFA'd for Jaso, and the Mariners only having one rostered catcher, it would make a lot of sense for them to claim Kotteras as a backup C, essentially making this a 2 for 1 trade).

[Hermie13]

don't see Gutierrez as a fit at all. We have Stubbs, a RH hitting CF who hits lefties and plays good defense. I would much rather get a lefty to compliment Stubbs in the OF. someone like Saunders. or a DeJesus from the Cubs or maybe a Will Venerable from SD.

The inclusion of Gutierrez is as a salary balancing veteran who, if healthy, can contribute to the success of the club he's going to.. While his health is yet to be determined, Gutierrez's appears to be finally in a good spot in that regard.. We also know that Gutierrez has a howitzer for an arm and can play all three outfield positions with aplomb... He's been in the VWL and has crushed the ball, played stellar defense and is preparing for a big 2013, his last guaranteed season on his current contract with the Mariners.

Just to be clear.. Right now the Indians have Tim Fedroff & Ezequiel Carrera slated as the two players battling for the fourth outfield spot.. and you see these two guys as a better fit that Franklin Gutierrez if a trade were to be consummated?..

note: this is where the equivocation begins...

Yes, I see both Carrera and Fedroff as better 4th OF candidates than Gut with how the roster is currently constructed. The 4th OFer will play mostly against righties as Brantley will be in there everyday, same with Swisher, and Stubbs hits lefties well. Gut has a career OPS against righties of .635 and last year (albeit tiny sample) .397. He just is not a good fit. Maybe as a platoon guy with a McGuiness I guess (Swisher to 1B, Reynolds to DH) but Santana can move to 1B allowing Marson or Gomes to play against lefties. Also have Aviles who can DH against lefties.

IMO the Tribe's 4th OFer needs to be a lefty or someone that can hit righties at least. Again, someone that compliments Stubbs who is a platoon guy right now.

[homerawayfromhome]

I was looking at some of the arb. numbers for some of these guys and Brendan Ryan stood out as a comparison to Mike Aviles. Aviles was projected to get $2.3 M on mlbtraderumors the same amount that Ryan was projected to get. Ryan ended up getting $3.25 M from the Mariners, could Aviles net near that amount? If so, would he suddenly become too expensive as a utility type infielder? I think it's possible. Again, maybe it was simply the Tribe doing their diligence looking into both Raburn and Theriot, IDK. Then again, could it be ACab is involved in trade talks or maybe it's Aviles. Aviles would be a reasonable option for a team not wanting to commit serious prospects / players in a deal. Perhaps it's as simple as the Tribe looking at potential bench / utility options if they land a FA DH such as Thome or Hafner.

All of this said what if the Tribe decided to sign a guy like Ryan Theriot for 1 yr / $1.5 M and then traded their other UTL option in Mike Aviles. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility, Theriot would be a solid bench piece similar to Jamey Carroll, IMO. What could the Tribe get if they decided to move Mike Aviles?

Here's something I think the Tribe could possibly pull off...

Cards get...
Mike Aviles
Joe Smith

Indians get...
Joe Kelly
Matt Adams

[daingean]

Yes, I see both Carrera and Fedroff as better 4th OF candidates than Gut with how the roster is currently constructed. The 4th OFer will play mostly against righties as Brantley will be in there everyday, same with Swisher, and Stubbs hits lefties well. Gut has a career OPS against righties of .635 and last year (albeit tiny sample) .397. He just is not a good fit. Maybe as a platoon guy with a McGuiness I guess (Swisher to 1B, Reynolds to DH) but Santana can move to 1B allowing Marson or Gomes to play against lefties. Also have Aviles who can DH against lefties.

IMO the Tribe's 4th OFer needs to be a lefty or someone that can hit righties at least. Again, someone that compliments Stubbs who is a platoon guy right now.

I like Carrera as the 4th OF most of all. He has defence and speed. It is always nice to have a speed option guy on the bench. The only draw back on Carrera (and Fedroff) is arm strength for RF which Gut has an ample supply of. So my rankings for the 4th OF would be: Zeke, Gut then Fed.

[Chip Davis]

I read somewhere that the Rays are shopping for a center fielder. What could Brantley bring back from the Rays pitching rich farm system?

[GeronimoSon]

Yes, I see both Carrera and Fedroff as better 4th OF candidates than Gut with how the roster is currently constructed. The 4th OFer will play mostly against righties as Brantley will be in there everyday, same with Swisher, and Stubbs hits lefties well. Gut has a career OPS against righties of .635 and last year (albeit tiny sample) .397. He just is not a good fit. Maybe as a platoon guy with a McGuiness I guess (Swisher to 1B, Reynolds to DH) but Santana can move to 1B allowing Marson or Gomes to play against lefties. Also have Aviles who can DH against lefties.

IMO the Tribe's 4th OFer needs to be a lefty or someone that can hit righties at least. Again, someone that compliments Stubbs who is a platoon guy right now.

I like Carrera as the 4th OF most of all. He has defence and speed. It is always nice to have a speed option guy on the bench. The only draw back on Carrera (and Fedroff) is arm strength for RF which Gut has an ample supply of. So my rankings for the 4th OF would be: Zeke, Gut then Fed.

Gutierrez, when healthy, does everything better than Zeke "the streak" Carrera does or will ever do....

[GeronimoSon]

I read somewhere that the Rays are shopping for a center fielder. What could Brantley bring back from the Rays pitching rich farm system?

Yes.. saw the note about that.. and thought.. Michael Brantley for Chris Archer straight up or Jake Odorizzi & Mike Montgomery in a two for one.. Either way, the Indians acquire at least one MOR/FOR SP candidate, or, if they want to take a risk, go for the two for one..

Then, I thought.. Tampa Bay looking for a CF'er and have no interest in Michael Bourn..because he's getting older and has the epitome of a leach /the blood sucking agent in Scott Boras. The Rays would be more inclined, with their farm to look for at most a two year deal.. The Rays could also use some serious help in their pen. The Rays have excess SP's & a well stocked farm system. Then I thought.. the Mainers have too many 1B/LF/DH's, two CF'ers and a need for a catcher, a hitting SS and a vet starting pitcher. Like the Rays, the Mariners farm is well stocked. The Indians have a need for "prospect level" MOR/FOR SP's and as many upper level prospects that may be able to impact the club in 2013 and beyond. All three of these clubs aren't exactly what you'd call 'big spenders"..There may be a deal where the needs of each team is addressed:

1. The Mariners get a SP (Hellickson), SS (Droobs), & a backup C (Jiminez or Lobaton)
2. The Rays get a CF (Gutierrez), LHRP (Furbush), MIF'er Nick Franklin, & a Closer (CPerez) + $ 7.3 MM from the Indians
3. The Indians get an SP (Hultzen) and 4 prospects ( Maurer, Shaffer, Ames, Mahtook).

This is pure speculation and the simpler trade of Michael Brantley for one or two SP's is still remotely likely at best. This crazy three way deal seems to address each team's needs. After looking at it. I'd much rather prefer Archer over Ames and Mahtook. Sadly, that would thin the Rays SP depth to dangerous levels.

Anyway, what are you thoughts?

[Hermie13]

Yes, I see both Carrera and Fedroff as better 4th OF candidates than Gut with how the roster is currently constructed. The 4th OFer will play mostly against righties as Brantley will be in there everyday, same with Swisher, and Stubbs hits lefties well. Gut has a career OPS against righties of .635 and last year (albeit tiny sample) .397. He just is not a good fit. Maybe as a platoon guy with a McGuiness I guess (Swisher to 1B, Reynolds to DH) but Santana can move to 1B allowing Marson or Gomes to play against lefties. Also have Aviles who can DH against lefties.

IMO the Tribe's 4th OFer needs to be a lefty or someone that can hit righties at least. Again, someone that compliments Stubbs who is a platoon guy right now.

I like Carrera as the 4th OF most of all. He has defence and speed. It is always nice to have a speed option guy on the bench. The only draw back on Carrera (and Fedroff) is arm strength for RF which Gut has an ample supply of. So my rankings for the 4th OF would be: Zeke, Gut then Fed.

True on arm strength though could always move Stubbs to RF when if needed. Aviles also can play RF and has a decent arm. Swisher also shouldn't need much time off.

I think Carrera will get first crack at the 4th OF job (out of options?), but still would like to see another guy brought in. I think a DeJesus-Stubbs platoon could work very well.

[Hermie13]

Gutierrez, when healthy, does everything better than Zeke "the streak" Carrera does or will ever do....

Except hit righties. Again, Gut has a .635 OPS against righties in his career. Zeke a .672 OPS. Even in 2010, Gut's last healthy year he only had a .653 OPS against righties.

I used to be one of Gut's biggest fans but he is just not that good and just not a fit in Cleveland unless they move Stubbs.

[homerawayfromhome]

I read somewhere that the Rays are shopping for a center fielder. What could Brantley bring back from the Rays pitching rich farm system?

Yes.. saw the note about that.. and thought.. Michael Brantley for Chris Archer straight up or Jake Odorizzi & Mike Montgomery in a two for one.. Either way, the Indians acquire at least one MOR/FOR SP candidate, or, if they want to take a risk, go for the two for one..

Then, I thought.. Tampa Bay looking for a CF'er and have no interest in Michael Bourn..because he's getting older and has the epitome of a leach /the blood sucking agent in Scott Boras. The Rays would be more inclined, with their farm to look for at most a two year deal.. The Rays could also use some serious help in their pen. The Rays have excess SP's & a well stocked farm system. Then I thought.. the Mainers have too many 1B/LF/DH's, two CF'ers and a need for a catcher, a hitting SS and a vet starting pitcher. Like the Rays, the Mariners farm is well stocked. The Indians have a need for "prospect level" MOR/FOR SP's and as many upper level prospects that may be able to impact the club in 2013 and beyond. All three of these clubs aren't exactly what you'd call 'big spenders"..There may be a deal where the needs of each team is addressed:

1. The Mariners get a SP (Hellickson), SS (Droobs), & a backup C (Jiminez or Lobaton)
2. The Rays get a CF (Gutierrez), LHRP (Furbush), MIF'er Nick Franklin, & a Closer (CPerez) + $ 7.3 MM from the Indians
3. The Indians get an SP (Hultzen) and 4 prospects ( Maurer, Shaffer, Ames, Mahtook).

This is pure speculation and the simpler trade of Michael Brantley for one or two SP's is still remotely likely at best. This crazy three way deal seems to address each team's needs. After looking at it. I'd much rather prefer Archer over Ames and Mahtook. Sadly, that would thin the Rays SP depth to dangerous levels.

Anyway, what are you thoughts?

I could see a three team deal being necessary to send a CF to TB I'll change up the look of the deal though. Here's something a bit different...

M's get...
ACab - SS (Cle)
Jose Lobaton - C (TB)

Rays get...
Michael Saunders - CF / RF (Sea)
Charlie Furbush - LHRP (Sea)
Lou Marson - C (Cle)

Indians get...
Brandon Maurer - RHSP (Sea)
Chris Archer - RHSP (TB)
Jake McKee - LHRP (TB)

[dazindiansfanuk]

Masterson confirmed at $5,678,500 for 2013.

[homerawayfromhome]

Mike Aviles has filed for $3.4 M in arb. the Indians countered Aviles with an offer of $2.4 M. It seems to make ACab that much more valuable commodity at solid price for 2 yrs. FWIW, mlbtraderumors.com projected $2.3 M for Aviles.

Here's a link to the arb numbers exchanged...
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny ... -exchanged

[Chip Davis]

Here's where I read the Ray's may be looking for a CF.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/r ... elder.html

[Edible14]

Mike Aviles has filed for $3.4 M in arb. the Indians countered Aviles with an offer of $2.4 M. It seems to make ACab that much more valuable commodity at solid price for 2 yrs. FWIW, mlbtraderumors.com projected $2.3 M for Aviles.

Here's a link to the arb numbers exchanged...
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny ... -exchanged

Interesting. More than I thought Aviles would get for sure. The guy had an OPS+ of 76, and most of his value comes in defense. I don't think an arbitrator is going to rule in his favor, he's better off taking whatever the Indians give him.

Also, from that article:

Craig Breslow, Red Sox: player $2.375 million, team $2.325 million
50k of difference. Clearly, this requires the intervention of an arbitrator.

[homerawayfromhome]

Mike Aviles has filed for $3.4 M in arb. the Indians countered Aviles with an offer of $2.4 M. It seems to make ACab that much more valuable commodity at solid price for 2 yrs. FWIW, mlbtraderumors.com projected $2.3 M for Aviles.

Here's a link to the arb numbers exchanged...
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny ... -exchanged

Interesting. More than I thought Aviles would get for sure. The guy had an OPS+ of 76, and most of his value comes in defense. I don't think an arbitrator is going to rule in his favor, he's better off taking whatever the Indians give him.

Also, from that article:

Craig Breslow, Red Sox: player $2.375 million, team $2.325 million
50k of difference. Clearly, this requires the intervention of an arbitrator.

Personally, I think the Tribe will get Aviles done in the next week or so, glad that its down to one guy and the numbers are somewhat close too. I think we could mark Aviles down for around $3 M, which is about $500k more than I thought he'd get. FWIW, Mariners starting SS signed his one yr deal yesterday for $3.25 M.

As for Craig Breslow, I'd demand a trade only to the Indians...

[GoTribe028]

@MLBastian: Indians are nearing a Minor League contract (with spring invite) for utility man Ryan Raburn. Likely finalized next week.

[GeronimoSon]

@MLBastian: Indians are nearing a Minor League contract (with spring invite) for utility man Ryan Raburn. Likely finalized next week.

There was a note on MLB Tr about Ryan Rayburn It basically said he's a very poor example / comp to Ben Zobrist.. Defensively, he plays everywhere w/ no particular spot that suits him better... Until the beginning of the regular season..where in just last season he finished with a Luis Valbuena-esque .171 season. His worst season as a pro. Does anyone know if he was hampered, hurting at the outset of the season?..IDK. By showing slow starts as he's had over the last couple of seasons, a MiLB contract works..

His spring trainings in Lakeland are legendary.. Last year.. he was second in hitting for the tigers with a .414 BA and won his spot and Leyland's praise out of ST. He did the same thing the previous year... and that time, with some power.. He has come to spring training and set the game on fire but hasn't been able to carry it over onto the season...

I guess this is one of the advantages to having him sign a minor league contract... It will allow him to continue confidently into the AAA regular season before he would have to earn his promotion. It just might be the wake up call this right handed utility guy needs.. This is a good low risk / good reward signing. Perhaps Rayburn will be "more" focused on getting and staying at the next level.. We'll see...

[A.Zajac]

Raburn deal is official. Also announced the Indians have brought back OF Ben Francisco on a minor league deal as well.

[GeronimoSon]

A couple of shorts about the Indians players.. now just 23 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in Goodyear Arizona:

-Carlos Carrasco. Apparently he was at the winter development program and had the chance to throw some for Tito.. Tito described the "sound" of the ball popping into the mitt as music to his ears. It's all about the sound when discussing the return of velocity. While velo is an important step, the part that usually lags is commmand/control. The fact that Carlos Carrasco will not be coddled or restricted in spring training was very good news..

-Lonnie Chisenhall has added around 20 pounds of brute strength to his frame while, according to him, maintaining his flexibility. Perhaps Lonnie has earned the new nick name Lonnie "Chiseled-one"?...

Nick Hagadone has completely recovered from his broken wrist and is coming to camp with the right mental attitude that says he's going to be a professional... Couldn't be a better time for him to step up...

[homerawayfromhome]

Getting Francisco and Rayburn are solid adds on minor league deals. Id still like to see the Tribe land Ryan Theriot and Ryan Sweeney on minor league deals. Maybe the Tribe could also land Manny Parra as a LHRP on a minor league deal as well. He's got some talent but has posted some ugly era's over his career.

Personally, I think the Tribe should make an aggressive offer to some of these FA's as ST nears. The longer that Lohse and Bourn stay on the mkt, the more likely I think the Tribe is to get back into FA, IMO. I've heard no notable noise on these guys other than potential interest by the Tribe weeks ago. But as ST nears it seems some of these guys, like Saunders and Marcum might be inclined to sign. While I'd prefer the more recognizable names like Lohse and Bourn, Marcum and / or Saunders could be solid adds on the right deal.

Maybe the Tribe could sign one of the or both of Lohse / Bourn and then let the chips fall where they will. Signing guys of their caliber would certainly spark further interest by Tribe fans. Yes the Tribe would lose a 3rd / and perhaps 4th rd pk if they signed one or both of these guys but the Tribe could recover the lost talent by trading off other pieces such as Chris Perez and Matt Albers for prospects which would free up $10 M in salary. The Tribe has bullpen depth to dip into which would help offset the loss of Perez. Or maybe they actually make a move involving ACab which has been speculated all offseason.

Could the Tribe be creative enough financially to land one or both? I'm not sure but considering what Rafael Soriano signed for and how he got it, maybe the Tribe could do something, somewhat similar back loading a deal with one or both. I know it's crazy to think it, the Tribe going for one let alone both but when the Tribe can work the system to their advantage they should...this is one of those rare opportunities, IMHO and the Tribe should look to strike on at least one of Lohse or Bourn, I'd prefer both but that's just me. All of this said, the Tribe should be willing and ready to strike a deal on one of these two.

[GeronimoSon]

The acquisition of the two remaining upper echelon FA's, Kyle Lohse & Michael Bourn, is a noble ambition. These two players are represented by the DEVIL and he's notorious for not giving / budging. IMHO, push is coming to shove w/r to Michael Bourn as he's a plus 30 year old who exhibited the hallmarks of an aging speed player during the second half of the 2012 season. For these reasons, the further Michael Bourn goes into this off season, the more likely he will be signed at for a shorter time, but no less of a bargain price. That is, his initial projected salary (5yrs/$75-100MM) and no lower than the lowest projected value (5yrs/$ 50-60 MM) will define the minimum or no less than one year and $ 10 MM. Dave Cameron at FanGraphs summarized this neatly with:

...is that someone will go five years for Bourn, and he’ll end up with a contract for between $75 and $100 million. Given his contact issues and the amount of his value that’s tied to his defense and base running, though, I don’t think I’d go beyond three years, and probably top out at $50-$60 million total. He’s going to get more than that, but I don’t know that I’d bet on him being worth more than that going forward.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... ket-value/

Using this value, it appears that Michael Bourn will sign NO CONTRACT for less than $ 10 MM. To do this, the Indians would have to move at least two players to remain at the budget level described by CA earlier in the month of January. Of these two guys out there, only Michael Bourn could be had for a 'bargain' such as this.. Kyle Lohse's situation isn't even close to being congruous with Michael Bourn's.

The market for Kyle Lohse is plentiful and will remain so. Lohse will get his 3 year $ 45 - 50 MM contract or perhaps even a four year contact. Kyle Lohse would blow the Indian's budget straight to hell and gone.. not that his services wouldn't vastly improve the club and their chances. So, in order to get both Bourn and Lohse, the Indians would have to come up with $ 25 to $ 30 MM in additional payroll. The trading away of CPerez, Asdrubal, Masterson and Albers along with the sale of STO and new TV money and so on.. just barely covers that.. The guys the Indians get back, will need to be able to complete their own contributions to the club as well as fill in for the losses from losing this quartet.. Not an easy order to fill. It might not even be an order the Indians F.O. wants to fill. It is possible that the Indians, less CP, Droobs, Masterson & Albers but with Lohse, Bourn and the five or six prospects/young ML vets coming back will be a better team.. They might be a LOT better.. IDK At the end of the day, the only way a pair of players "like" Lohse and or Bourn can be acquired will be through an astute trade.. On this, I have no doubt of its correctness..

Sorry to use so many words to rain on your parade, Homer...

[GeronimoSon]

BTW.. Shelly Duncan has hooked on with the Tampa Bay Rays, signing a MiLB contract with a spring training invite.. Good Luck Shelly...

[homerawayfromhome]

I seriously doubt Bourn or Lohse get those numbers, but I do acknowledge they could IF a team gives in OR a significant player gets hurt. I wouldn't want the Tribe to trade any of those parts to facilitate a signing. Just suggesting they could let things play out and may get a solid deal for these guys. At the same time, holding other pieces for the right moment to make a solid trade. Personally, Id be willing to go 3 yrs on Lohse IF the deal was structured to be friendly toward the team. As for Michael Bourn I would do 4 / $ 52 and maybe a 5th yr vesting / team option.

I get it they want flexibility with their payroll and either would really do some damage as far as the payroll goes, but Id be willing to say they would have a jump in attendance to help offset it too. Honestly, I still think they should pursue one of the two bc the penalty would be far cheaper this yr (3rd rd draft pk and pool money) than next for the same qlty of FA.

Btw, apparently the Phillies plan on using Delmon Young as there RF??? I'd like to see the Tribe try to land Domonic Brown from the Phillies. If he's so out of favor there as it appears maybe something like Matt Albers for Brown could get done.

[Hermie13]

I seriously doubt Bourn or Lohse get those numbers, but I do acknowledge they could IF a team gives in OR a significant player gets hurt. I wouldn't want the Tribe to trade any of those parts to facilitate a signing. Just suggesting they could let things play out and may get a solid deal for these guys. At the same time, holding other pieces for the right moment to make a solid trade. Personally, Id be willing to go 3 yrs on Lohse IF the deal was structured to be friendly toward the team. As for Michael Bourn I would do 4 / $ 52 and maybe a 5th yr vesting / team option.

I get it they want flexibility with their payroll and either would really do some damage as far as the payroll goes, but Id be willing to say they would have a jump in attendance to help offset it too. Honestly, I still think they should pursue one of the two bc the penalty would be far cheaper this yr (3rd rd draft pk and pool money) than next for the same qlty of FA.

Btw, apparently the Phillies plan on using Delmon Young as there RF??? I'd like to see the Tribe try to land Domonic Brown from the Phillies. If he's so out of favor there as it appears maybe something like Matt Albers for Brown could get done.

Agree with the 3rd round money vs next year and potentially losing 1st round money. Just not sure the Tribe can afford another big contract even if they moved Perez. Never say never I guess though. Maybe really front load a deal...

As soon as I saw Young sign with the Phillies I thought the same thing on Domonic Brown. Could platoon with Stubbs. Not sure Albers gets it done (not sure the Tribe wants to move him anyways). Was thinking maybe Carrera and a middling spec? Would like to see how Brown takes to a change of scenery.

[homerawayfromhome]

I seriously doubt Bourn or Lohse get those numbers, but I do acknowledge they could IF a team gives in OR a significant player gets hurt. I wouldn't want the Tribe to trade any of those parts to facilitate a signing. Just suggesting they could let things play out and may get a solid deal for these guys. At the same time, holding other pieces for the right moment to make a solid trade. Personally, Id be willing to go 3 yrs on Lohse IF the deal was structured to be friendly toward the team. As for Michael Bourn I would do 4 / $ 52 and maybe a 5th yr vesting / team option.

I get it they want flexibility with their payroll and either would really do some damage as far as the payroll goes, but Id be willing to say they would have a jump in attendance to help offset it too. Honestly, I still think they should pursue one of the two bc the penalty would be far cheaper this yr (3rd rd draft pk and pool money) than next for the same qlty of FA.

Btw, apparently the Phillies plan on using Delmon Young as there RF??? I'd like to see the Tribe try to land Domonic Brown from the Phillies. If he's so out of favor there as it appears maybe something like Matt Albers for Brown could get done.

Agree with the 3rd round money vs next year and potentially losing 1st round money. Just not sure the Tribe can afford another big contract even if they moved Perez. Never say never I guess though. Maybe really front load a deal...

As soon as I saw Young sign with the Phillies I thought the same thing on Domonic Brown. Could platoon with Stubbs. Not sure Albers gets it done (not sure the Tribe wants to move him anyways). Was thinking maybe Carrera and a middling spec? Would like to see how Brown takes to a change of scenery.

I somewhat disagree, I think they could afford another piece but it has to be the right circumstances. They have made it known they would go over budget in the right instance. For example Kyle Lohse is said to want 4 yrs based on what I've heard. There's no way Id do 4 yrs and I'd doubt the Tribe would want to go three but they might for the right deal. Looking at the Rafael Soriano deal makes me think the Tribe could always defer some money or more preferable offer a sizable option buyout.

Here's what I'm getting at: offer Kyle Lohse something like...

2yrs w/ a team option
2013: $7 M
2014: $15 M
2015: $15 M w/ a $3 M buyout

Overall potential value $37 M, overall true value for 2 yrs / $25 M.

As for Michael Bourn I think the Tribe should remain open to signing him as well. At this point however I'm not convinced he's worth more than Shane Victorino and IMO he's certainly not worth the same value as Nick Swisher, although that would probably be the jumping off point. Drew Stubbs certainly offers the Tribe a unique talent in CF but Bourn would offer a top of the lineup piece unlike they've had in a while.

Maybe the Tribe could get something done with Michael Bourn like 4 yrs / $52 M w/ 5th yr team option for $13M with a $3 M buyout...or...4 yrs / $56 with a 5th yr team option for $14 M and a $2 M buyout. I know Bourn isn't necessarily a need for the Tribe but he would provide a legit lead off hitter that provides solid defense / speed. Stubbs offers both speed and defense but he's not a premier lead off hitter as Bourn has been.

Maybe the Tribe could do something like...

4yrs / team option for 5th yr
2013: $7 M
2014: $14 M
2015: $14 M
2016: $14 M
2017: $14 M team option w/ $3 M buyout.

Overall potential value: $59 M, overall true value: 4 yrs / $52 M.

[ironmike]

Why split hairs over minor league free agent contracts? When was the last time one made any impact? Maybe Marty Cordova in 2001.

Wanna win? Tito does. Sign impact players. This team needs to add to the pile. What they have done so far is good, but not enough. After 6-8 years of low payrolls they can afford to go over budget one year. Still need a solid starting pitcher and another offensive player with intangibles. Then if would be an interesting season. The Indians can still afford to make a major trade and improve the team dramatically.

Hoping we can land Jim Thome, but prefer a Michael Bourn type. Either way another professional hitter, no minor league rejects. Reynolds is a huge gamble, if he don't hit 35-40 home runs he's a liability. Ditto Stubbs if he can't hit .260 or better. Was encouraged to read Stubb has dropped his high leg kick which causes eye level movement in favor of the Paul Molitor toe tap. That little move could be significant. We shall see.

Hey Tony, a healthy Josh Tomlin coming off a 12-7 season sure would look good right now???

Tito didn't come here to play .500 baseball he wants to win ... now.

Regarding Scott Kazmir, not concerned about his the speed of his fastball. Does it have movement? He needs to be able to throw three pitches for strikes in any count and locate. Also, IF he can develop a better than average change up that might be his ticket to getting on a Jamie Moyer path to recovery and being able to compete and contribute in 2013.

[GeronimoSon]

Which Michael Bourn will be the one you're getting?.. the one who hit .300 for the Astros in the first half of 2011?.. or the one who hit .275 for the Braves to finish out the season in late September as the Braves completed an EPIC GAG on their chance for the post season?.. Is the version of Michael Bourn the .300 hitter in the first half of 2012..or the .225 hitter in the second half of 2012?. Inconsistencies like this and a GINORMOUS contract make Michael Bourn a non-starter for the Indians. If the Indians are going to spend the same amount of money they have committed to Nick Swisher, then, at the very least, consistency is an absolute requirement..

Michael Bourn, imho, is marginally better than Michael Brantley.. and NO ONE is clamoring to give Michael Brantley a four or five year deal for tens of millions of dollars per season.. Just because Michael Bourn is a FA.. doesn't mean he's the right kind of player for the Indians..

It's pretty much a moot point, anyway.. Michael Bourn's agent, the devil, won't let his client play for a 'development' team, anyway...

[ironmike]

Michael Brantley is a good up and coming young core player. Great plate discipline and BB-K ratio. A team like the Indians would consider themselves fortunate to get Bourne. Agree, they aren't in play for him.

[timdav]

Agree totally with those who are hoping the Indians make another big trade for a quality starting pitcher (even if he's Bauer like: a premier, top prospect ready to move to the majors).

A-Cab, it would seem, is the most-valuable asset the Tribe could afford to trade.

Another potential #1 or #2 starter will help the Indians long-term a heck of a lot more than a 27-year-old shortstop (no offense to Asdrubal).

Getting another stud-potential starter in 2013 for A-Cab won't likely cause the Indians to win the World Series this season. However, until the Indians make major improvements in the starting staff, the Tribe has no realistic shot at winning a ring any time soon. Don't you agree?

Fingers crossed.

[homerawayfromhome]

Michael Brantley is a good up and coming young core player. Great plate discipline and BB-K ratio. A team like the Indians would consider themselves fortunate to get Bourne. Agree, they aren't in play for him.

Agreed the Indians are probably out on Bourn. I think they should at least try aggressively to land one of the top two FA remaining in Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn. The Tribe is the only team I can think of that would ONLY be penalized a 3rd rd draft pick plus pool money. IMO, that unique factor should come into play, bc the Tribe could use that top FA to upgrade the big club first. Secondly, the Tribe could always consider moving Lohse / Bourn in a deal at the trade deadline for 2/3 qlty prospects. Thirdly, it could only generate more interest from the fan base to add another qlty player. IMO, the Tribe could always be creative and pursue a deal for Lohse in similar fashion to the deal Rafael Soriano signed with a large portion of cash deferred. Just saying, I don't think these options should be off the table.

In other thoughts, Id like to see the Tribe pursue Kelly Johnson, Ryan Theriot, Ryan Sweeney and maybe a cpl SP like DiceK and Chris Young all on minor league deals. I doubt they can get them all but, Id like to see them add a cpl on minor league deals as other options for the bench.

[homerawayfromhome]

Agree totally with those who are hoping the Indians make another big trade for a quality starting pitcher (even if he's Bauer like: a premier, top prospect ready to move to the majors).

A-Cab, it would seem, is the most-valuable asset the Tribe could afford to trade.

Another potential #1 or #2 starter will help the Indians long-term a heck of a lot more than a 27-year-old shortstop (no offense to Asdrubal).

Getting another stud-potential starter in 2013 for A-Cab won't likely cause the Indians to win the World Series this season. However, until the Indians make major improvements in the starting staff, the Tribe has no realistic shot at winning a ring any time soon. Don't you agree?

Fingers crossed.

I completely agree, Id love to see the Tribe make another move and get a great return for ACab. I don't think we can entirely rule it out that he does get traded at some point but right now it seems highly unlikely that they'd move him. For the most part deals are done...I say that and the Indians will trade for Justin Upton tomorrow...

Seriously though, while I don't rule out another minor deal or two, it seems unlikely they pull off a bigger trade at this point.

[GoTribe028]

Heyman & Rosenthal reporting the Cubbies signed Scott Hairston to a 2yr deal pending physical.

[GeronimoSon]

Mets and Marcum.. a match made in heaven?...

[GeronimoSon]

There does seem to be an imaginary point in time when clubs decide "..this is who we're going to spring training with".. and they stay with it.. If, & only IF, an injury or an overwhelming offer presents itself, does that change. Jason Kubel being added to the Indians would represent an enormous improvement in the offense. At what cost?. Perhaps on the same level as what the Orioles are said to be trading: Mike Matusz & another prospect.. The Indians have several young'ish middle to back of the pen pitching prospects that they can package..

OTOH, perhaps the criticism Kevin Towers received in the wake of the Trevor Bauer/DiDi Gregorius/Shin-soo Choo deal will make the Indians, persona non-grata?..

[GeronimoSon]

Another Jon Heyman quote.. this one regarding the Teams allegedly in contention for the services of Michael Bourn:

...Heyman identifies eight different teams -- the Mets, Braves, Rangers, Mariners, Orioles, Cubs, Rays and Dodgers...

By conspicuous omission, no indication that the Indians are in any way "directly' involved. Additionally, the Orioles getting Kubel would take them out of the running.. The Mets Sandy Alderson has stated that there is NO way the Mets will meet Scott Boras' asking price. The Braves are said to be heavily invested in the Justin Upton sweepstakes. The Rays don't won't spend that kind of cash for a player, so, they're out of the picture. The Dodgers have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford as their starting outfield, so, other than having an enormous bank, the Dodgers would appear to be out of the running... This leaves the Cubs, M's and Rangers... that is.. the same guys that were allegedly interested in Michael Bourn back in November.

FWIW.. I hope it's the M's who crack..they could be the most likely as they are in desperate need of a lead off hitter. If the M's do take this plunge, then the M's would be looking to move at least one of their current CF potentials (Saunders or Franklin Gutierrez). The M's are already over loaded with 1B/DH's and are short on a defensive catcher, even WITH the signing of Ronny Paulino... This series of events, if they come to pass.. just fits the Indians / Mariners potential deal I've been trumpeting for weeks.. We'll see...

[GoTribe028]

@mlbbowman: Source: Braves get Justin Upton and Chris Johnson from D-backs for Prado, Delgado, Ahmed and Spruill.

WOW.

[homerawayfromhome]

Bourn has lost a potential landing spot in ATL. But that might not matter as the Mets are seeking a exemption from MLB to lose their 2nd rd pk, instead of their first rd pk. Btw, the Mets pick 11th and could argue they should hold the 10th pk bc of Pittsburgh compensation pk for not signing Appel last yr. Also, the Mets reportedly want to backload a deal with Bourn to get it done IF they can obtain an exemption.

Another note, the Dbax are reportedly looking to deal Nick Ahmed and a pitching prospect for Rick Porcello as per mlbtraderumors.com.

[GeronimoSon]

Bourn has lost a potential landing spot in ATL. But that might not matter as the Mets are seeking a exemption from MLB to lose their 2nd rd pk, instead of their first rd pk. Btw, the Mets pick 11th and could argue they should hold the 10th pk bc of Pittsburgh compensation pk for not signing Appel last yr. Also, the Mets reportedly want to backload a deal with Bourn to get it done IF they can obtain an exemption.

Another note, the Dbax are reportedly looking to deal Nick Ahmed and a pitching prospect for Rick Porcello as per mlbtraderumors.com.

Sort of a classic move by Kevin Towers.. make a trade of a surplus on your team for some prospects (Atlanta's), then package one or more of those guys with some of your own prospects you don't mind losing, then send that package away for who you do want from a third team... in this case, the Detroit Tigers:

e.g. Andrew Chafin and Nick Ahmed for Rick Porcello...

ooops.. check that.. It appears that John Gambadoro of AZ Sportsin Phoenix is saying that no way, no how do the DBax make a trade for Rick Porcello & that any rumors regarding him are garbage..

So, it's almost a done deal !!

[BrianM]

Prado is a nice piece and Delgado is a nice piece, but the deal from the Mariners seemed a bit sweeter than the package they got from the Braves.

Kevin Towers has gotten a lot of ridicule this offseason because of the Choo trade, but the D'Backs seem to have put themselves in a pretty nice position with the future of their rotation. They Currently have Trevor Cahill, Josh Collmenter, Patrick Corbin, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley, Tyler Skaggs, Archie Bradley, Randall Delgado, and potentially Rick Porcello. That is 10, maybe 11 starting pitching options. Bradley is further away, but certainly has a good chance of grabbing a spot in that rotation in the next couple years.

This kind of depth has made guys like Cahill, Collmenter, Hudson, Kennedy, and McCarthy all expendable during the season or offseason in potential trades. We have all seen what desperate or contending teams are willing to give up at the deadline for FOR/MOR starting pitching, and AZ has now put itself in a position to completely stack their minor league system. In 3 years a rotation of Skaggs, Delgado, Corbin, Miley, and Bradley could be a top 10 rotation in the majors. I have never seen a team put themselves in this kind of position. It just seems like such an enviable place to be.

[Hermie13]

Agree with the 3rd round money vs next year and potentially losing 1st round money. Just not sure the Tribe can afford another big contract even if they moved Perez. Never say never I guess though. Maybe really front load a deal...

As soon as I saw Young sign with the Phillies I thought the same thing on Domonic Brown. Could platoon with Stubbs. Not sure Albers gets it done (not sure the Tribe wants to move him anyways). Was thinking maybe Carrera and a middling spec? Would like to see how Brown takes to a change of scenery.

I somewhat disagree, I think they could afford another piece but it has to be the right circumstances. They have made it known they would go over budget in the right instance. For example Kyle Lohse is said to want 4 yrs based on what I've heard. There's no way Id do 4 yrs and I'd doubt the Tribe would want to go three but they might for the right deal. Looking at the Rafael Soriano deal makes me think the Tribe could always defer some money or more preferable offer a sizable option buyout.

Here's what I'm getting at: offer Kyle Lohse something like...

2yrs w/ a team option
2013: $7 M
2014: $15 M
2015: $15 M w/ a $3 M buyout

Overall potential value $37 M, overall true value for 2 yrs / $25 M.

As for Michael Bourn I think the Tribe should remain open to signing him as well. At this point however I'm not convinced he's worth more than Shane Victorino and IMO he's certainly not worth the same value as Nick Swisher, although that would probably be the jumping off point. Drew Stubbs certainly offers the Tribe a unique talent in CF but Bourn would offer a top of the lineup piece unlike they've had in a while.

Maybe the Tribe could get something done with Michael Bourn like 4 yrs / $52 M w/ 5th yr team option for $13M with a $3 M buyout...or...4 yrs / $56 with a 5th yr team option for $14 M and a $2 M buyout. I know Bourn isn't necessarily a need for the Tribe but he would provide a legit lead off hitter that provides solid defense / speed. Stubbs offers both speed and defense but he's not a premier lead off hitter as Bourn has been.

Maybe the Tribe could do something like...

4yrs / team option for 5th yr
2013: $7 M
2014: $14 M
2015: $14 M
2016: $14 M
2017: $14 M team option w/ $3 M buyout.

Overall potential value: $59 M, overall true value: 4 yrs / $52 M.

The Tribe is already over budget though based on what Antonetti said earlier this offseason. Not sure they can add more.

I would sign Lohse to that deal but think he can do better. Tribe payroll for 2014 also needs to be considered.