Building the 2013 Cleveland Indians

by **ironmike** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:21 pm

Prosecutor, agree. Indians need to get back to mediocrity first before we can contend. Headed in the right direction, let's keep it going.

by **OhioBaseball** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:25 pm

The Indians line-up could be pretty decent next year. Just providing some context here, if you go back and look at the MLB Standings based on WAR, the 10th best team in MLB generally produces around +26 WAR or so.

Using 2012 WAR from Baseball Reference, this is the following production from the Indians line-up; Santana (3.7), Mark Reynolds (0.0), Jason Kipnis (3.7), Asdrubal Cabrera (3.0), Michael Brantley (3.0), Drew Stubbs (0), Nick Swisher (3.0). There's no real data for Lonnie Chisenhall at 3B and the DH position is open. Let's say the Indians somehow squeeze + 1.0 WAR in total from those two spots -- this line-up is +17.5 WAR.

I don't know how reliable WAR is to use on the bullpen (relievers stats fluctuate quite a bit year-to-year), but the current pen was +4.8 WAR last year. Seems high; Matt Albers' career stats aren't good and he somehow was +1.1 WAR last year, so let's bring that total down to +2.5 WAR to be conservative b/c we can't really rely on past performance with relievers.

So, the offense is +17.5 WAR, bullpen is +2.5 WAR (conservative estimate). If the Indians could somehow get merely +6 WAR from the starting rotation (it was below zero last year!!!! OUCH), they are within distance of a top 10 overall team and perhaps in playoff contention. Masterson has performed to a good level before (+3.6 WAR in 2011), the Indians will presumably have a healthy Carlos Carrasco next year, a young but promising Trevor Bauer, Zach McAllister (I think he is good), and it seems doubtful they get anything from Jimenez/Kluber/Huff/Gomez (very easily could be negative WAR). Maybe a free agent SP to fill the fifth spot, or hope you get lucky with one of those guys?

This was very much a bunch of back of the envelope calculations, but I was a bit surprised at the possibility of contention. I realize WAR aggregation is far from a bullet proof method of assessing team productivity, but it has some merit. Very possible we see regression in some players next year (Kipnis, Pestano come to mind), but there's possible improving production from various offensive players, too (Stubbs, Reynolds, Chisenhall). We'll see. You could make these cases for a lot of teams other than the Indians, but this team doesn't resemble the train wreck it was the last two months of 2012. The Indians will need some breaks, perhaps another acquisition or two, but it's not out of reach.

by **Prosecutor** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:24 pm

I agree that the Indians lineup won't be a train wreck, OB, but as far as contending, I really doubt it. If you like WAR, look at the Tigers:

Miguel Cabrera 7.5
Prince Fielder 5.0
Austin Jackson 4.9
Alex Avila 1.7
Andy Dirks 1.9
Jhonny Peralta 1.1

Then you have the starters:

Verlander 7.5
Scherzer 4.0
Fister 3.1
Porcello 1.3
Smyly/Sanchez 2.7

That adds up to 40 WAR right there.

All the Indians position players need to have career or near career years at the same time while Ubaldo figures it out, Masterson gets back to his 2011 form, and McAlister and Kluber take a big step forward. I just don't think the entire roster will stay healthy and have career years, but that's what it will take.

by **OhioBaseball** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:35 am

Prosecutor wrote:I agree that the Indians lineup won't be a train wreck, OB, but as far as contending, I really doubt it. If you like WAR, look at the Tigers:

Miguel Cabrera 7.5
Prince Fielder 5.0
Austin Jackson 4.9
Alex Avila 1.7
Andy Dirks 1.9
Jhonny Peralta 1.1

Then you have the starters:

Verlander 7.5
Scherzer 4.0
Fister 3.1
Porcello 1.3
Smyly/Sanchez 2.7

That adds up to 40 WAR right there.

All the Indians position players need to have career or near career years at the same time while Ubaldo figures it out, Masterson gets back to his 2011 form, and McAlister and Kluber take a big step forward. I just don't think the entire roster will stay healthy and have career years, but that's what it will take.

Wow, you're right. I am totally off here. The numbers I stated (+26 WAR for the top 10 in MLB) were strictly for positional players. I did google searches on different variations of ' mlb WAR standings', found a link and went to it -- I didn't pay enough attention to detail here. My mistake. I've been a bit of a pessimist lately and was trying to be optimistic!

MLB average WAR is approximately +38. It turns out I had a good reason to be surprised at my bad findings! The Indians have quite a steep hill to climb. The Indians have some clear upside potential with a lot of players, but the numbers overall aren't favorable.

by **ironmike** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 9:09 am

Ohio Baseball, agree with you. IMO Indians still need two impact bats, one if Stubbs can hit .260. Swisher won't be nearly enough to contend as far as position players, but have been recommending Swisher for 2 years on this forum. Reynolds will prove to be a negative addition, unless he also can hit .250+. There is a big reason why he has been with 3 teams in the past few years. We still desperately need a Kenny Lofton igniter type and another professional run producer so we can get close to 850 runs scored per season.

Dee Gordon is intriguing, but don't know enough about him. Gotta say his speed is intriguing, and like Lofton, gotta get these kind of guys before they emerge, otherwise you don't get guys like McCutcheon, but that is where exceptional scouting and good baseball people make their impact. Do we have them now? Not sure. Lofton was recommended by Charlie Manuel when he was managing Triple A Colorado Springs for us and Hargrove recommended too. Gordon might be a piece we need. Right now, teams are considering a position change for Gordon to be an outfielder. Like to see this happen with the Indians.

Pitching, two more better than average starting pitchers, unless Kazmir can be productive again. Expecting big things from McAllister, but one never knows about young pitchers from year to year. Ditto Carrasco. Doesn't matter if he is throwing 95 MPH, can he locate consistently with all of his pitches is the issue? Many of our pitchers really need to learn how to throw a change up with movement for strikes before they ever can become consistent winners, especially Masterson.

All of the above IF the team wants to contend, assuming Kipnis, Santana, Chisenhall, Stubbs and others have good years. IF his back is okay, would take a shot at Jim Thome being the full time DH, if he would play for a $1m or $2m or Carlos Lee. They both hit, walk, get on base better than most, would be affordable. No more Hafner, please.

How close are any of the young SS we have in our system to being able to play full time? Who will be the next position player from our system to make an impact at the ML level, ditto young starting pitchers?

Right now, depth wise we are very weak in the outfield. Any type of injury to our starting OF's, puts us in the position of using players without much ML experience, usually that is not productive.

Summarizing, at least one more professional hitter and another 15 game winner before we can ever think about contending. I'll be listening to Antonetti carefully at the next press conference hoping he realizes there is much more to be done and that he intends to do it prior to opening day.

by **GeronimoSon** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:47 pm

blah blah blah.. 850 runs..
blah blah blah.. two more impact hitters..
blah blah blan.. two more 15 game winners..
..like a broken record...

by **GeronimoSon** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 1:10 pm

If it seems to be too good to be true, then it probably is...

In a Kevin Towers interview before Christmas..there appeared to be a few notes/hints at why he was allowing the apparent overpay for DiDi.. While he doesn't specifically state Bauer's name.. it's pretty clear, that's who he meant..

"...makeup, character, aptitude. Are they able to apply the instruction that has been conveyed to them?..”

It's clear that Trevor Bauer's work habits did not sit well with KT & the DBax program. The disagreement manifested itself with an argument about "character". Perhaps having a hard driving field general (Gibson) who has a coaching staff that reflects his personality created a systematic appraisal that this kid (Bauer) was a lone wolf, not a team guy and became the proverbial "stone in his shoe" for KT.. Laying culpability on make up, character, attitude, ability to listen, etc. all sounds like intangible traits were the issue. .not the ability to throw a baseball with velocity and deception..

"...I don’t like pitchers who walk hitters... Strikeout-to-walk ratios are very important ..fastball command is paramount... the successful staffs are the ones that have low walk rates.”

The Dbax as a team had the lowest walk rate in MLB, I believe. Trevor Bauer, in a very limited sampling, performed in a way that might be considered the polar opposite of this statistic.. Not a very transparent "stab" at TB, imho..

In looking for reasons that make sense for the DBax to trade Trevor Bauer, this is the only reference that has any merit w/r to TB's actual on field performance. If this remains an issue, it could lead to some short starts by TB in the early part of his ML career.. While I would prefer to see two pitch at bats for our SP's regularly, TB trusting his stuff even if he gives up a few more walks than the best walk rate staff in MLB does shouldn't be a valid reason to throw him away, as the DBax appear to have done. It's essential for an SP to trust himself in those situations... and for the Indians and their coaching staff to assure TB that his approach, "doing his own thing" will not only be tolerated, but encouraged..

by **homerawayfromhome** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 3:04 pm

Towers also mentioned elsewhere that the key for Bauer to be successful is his FB. It seems like they grew awful impatient with Bauer and decided to invest their resources elsewhere. Bauer as talented as he is didn't seem to fit the way the Dbax do things, which furthered their interest in moving him. Bauer will walk guys, but also strikeout quite a few as well. He's not a finished product yet, but could easily pitch in the mid / back of a rotation.

by **Tondo** » Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:33 am

Sounds like Bauer could be our Brandon Phillips and Towers = Wedge

by **daingean** » Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:15 am

GeronimoSon wrote:The Dbax as a team had the lowest walk rate in MLB, I believe. Trevor Bauer, in a very limited sampling, performed in a way that might be considered the polar opposite of this statistic.. Not a very transparent "stab" at TB, imho..

In looking for reasons that make sense for the DBax to trade Trevor Bauer, this is the only reference that has any merit w/r to TB's actual on field performance. If this remains an issue, it could lead to some short starts by TB in the early part of his ML career.. While I would prefer to see two pitch at bats for our SP's regularly, TB trusting his stuff even if he gives up a few more walks than the best walk rate staff in MLB does shouldn't be a valid reason to throw him away, as the DBax appear to have done. It's essential for an SP to trust himself in those situations... and for the Indians and their coaching staff to assure TB that his approach, "doing his own thing" will not only be tolerated, but encouraged..

Certainly guys who walk a lot of hitters does raise flags. I do think there are several stories about walking guys:

1. Pitching around guys that can hurt you - as long as you get the next guys in the line-up out, this doesn't cause alarms
2. Walking a guy after getting him down 0-2 - nothing can be more frustrating than this
3. Lead-off walks - only surpassed by #2 above on the frustrating list

Putting guys on base moves infielders out of the most preferred defensive position (i.e. 1B holding runner, 2B and SS up in DP position) and it also gives the opponent to run which shifts fielders mid-play also providing for more openings. Some guys can bear down and get guys out but pitching in stress wears out a pitcher more than easy innings and walks = higher pitch counts.

by **ironmike** » Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:47 am

Long tossing has been around forever as a way to build arm strength. John Hiler the ace relief pitcher with the Tigers used to do it all the time. He would take a bushel full of baseballs get in CF and throw them in another basket behind home plate. Hell, Bob Feller believed in throwing every day. None of this is new, it is the geek squad spreadsheet idiots who came up with pitch counts, which is the real reason you see more arm injuries than ever before.

Go ahead defend what they do today, doesn't mean it is correct. All of the sudden now that Bauer is with the Indians his unique training methods are okay??? It isn't new.

The formula for building a winning organization:

1. An owner with a concise business plan who is intelligent enough to hire the right baseball executives
2. The right executive of baseball operations who knows talent and can hire / train the very best supporting staff,
scouts, minor league coaches / instructors and ML level manager and coaches.
3. A GM who values, pitchers with less hits than innings pitched and outstanding BB-K ratios and puts the same emphasis
on power arms along with consistent location and changing speeds.
4. A GM who recognizes the correct blend of power and speed in their lineup, values intangibles, understands the
importance of runs scored, and outstanding BB-K ratios.

All the other metrics BS is unnecessary and is a cloak to hide the real incompetence of those that spin it and use it. Right now, the Indians don't have any of the above. They won't be able to do it unless item number one is corrected.

All of the above 1-4 is the Dick Jacobs, Hank Peters / John Hart way, it works. Pretty doggone hard to argue with that unless your ego gets in the way.

Ever wonder why John Hart met every morning with Shapiro / Antonetti for breakfast in Nashville at the Winter Meetings? They sure the hell were not talking about baseball metrics.

by **GeronimoSon** » Thu Dec 27, 2012 12:33 pm

blah blah blah..new owner..
blah blah blah.. new front office..
blah blah blah.. score 850..
blah blah blah.. go get McCutchen..

blah blah bland.. like a broken record..

by **TheWord** » Thu Dec 27, 2012 1:17 pm

It's a shame we don't have the statistics to show that for every Bob Feller or Whitey Ford throwing every other day, there are probably thousands of pitchers who's arm about fell off during that time and never had their careers see the light of day.

Pretending the days of Bob Feller throwing 200 pitches every other day is practical is about the worst argument that plagues modern baseball today. Anytime I hear someone bring it up, I just picture the crazy uncle sitting in the corner starting out the conversation with "back in MY day."

It's tired, so I urge you...put it to bed.

by **daingean** » Thu Dec 27, 2012 1:49 pm

TheWord wrote:It's a shame we don't have the statistics to show that for every Bob Feller or Whitey Ford throwing every other day, there are probably thousands of pitchers who's arm about fell off during that time and never had their careers see the light of day.

Pretending the days of Bob Feller throwing 200 pitches every other day is practical is about the worst argument that plagues modern baseball today. Anytime I hear someone bring it up, I just picture the crazy uncle sitting in the corner starting out the conversation with "back in MY day."

It's tired, so I urge you...put it to bed.

Maybe so but there is a flaw in how guys are developed now. When you limit guys in the minors then expect them to be able to go 7-9 innings in the pros, there is an issue. Most guys coming out of HS are used to going 5-7 innings and college pitchers are used to going 7-9 innings then when they get to the minors it's 4 innings. It's no wonder we are better at developing relievers than starters.

I know weights play a major role in guys developing their arm strength but long toss is and always will be the best method. Proper pre and post throwing band work also can play a major role (and post pitching running). Not saying the old days were the best but today's pitchers are treated with kid gloves and have the best surgery/medicine/nutrition/supplements available and yet I would say at least equal in guys going down with injuries (compared with the "good old days"). Not saying old ways were best....just saying the new days are equally as flawed.

by **Prosecutor** » Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:24 am

Look at the pitchers of 100 years ago. For example, Kid Nichols averaged 45 starts and 400 innings the first ten years of his career from 1890-99. Same with Cy Young, Walter Johnson, and a lot of other guys. 400 innings a year was the normal workload. It was all long toss with those guys - no weights involved, and no ice baths, ultrasound, or anything like that.

Of course those guys probably threw nothing but fastballs and spitters; no sliders, splitters, or other breaking balls that put a lot of stress on the elbow and shoulder. Maybe they could get away with it because of the dead ball era and the fact that the average baseball player was about 5'7" and 150 pounds. Now that we have the live ball and physical specimens like Adam Dunn and Albert Pujols playing, pitchers can't get away with throwing nothing but heaters, so their arms are more vulnerable.

Look at Fernando Valenzuela, throwing all those screwballs. His career was a comet; here today, gone tomorrow. That's why power pitchers have longer careers, at least according to Bill James. Except for Jamie Moyer and Hoyt Wilhelm, of course.

Long toss may be the best thing to keep the shoulder strong and healthy, but throwing most fastballs has got to be a factor as well. Look how long Ryan and Feller and Clemens pitched.

by **GeronimoSon** » Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:29 am

It's the calm before the storm.. the days in between Christmas and New Year's when...

-Fans, bored & with time off search for inklings of ideas that put their club in contention in the coming season
-the count down to the start of spring training only requires one full month and parts of two others ( 51 days, now)
-Tony posts scouting videos as a means to inspire interest.. no other news to talk about, really and..
-ML executives' wives hide all three of their husband's cell phones and force them to pay attention to their brides..

In short, no news means CA/Others are whipped...

by **GeronimoSon** » Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:32 am

Interesting notes today and yesterday on some blog-rolls regarding the Red Birds of St Louis.. Cardinals fans seem to believe that they will be trading Matt Adams/others for a current and/or future shortstop.. This sounds an awful lot like Triv on WTAM talking about the little birdie he hears from... Nothing from any source that would be considered remotely credible..

by **GeronimoSon** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:32 am

The new year is upon us.. 50 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Goodyear Arizona.. and the Indians have changed nearly a third of their roster.. While improvement in the pitching staff is still needed, there appears to be one more area the club needs to address: Corner Outfield.

And the solution is 'available' for not much more than the price the Indians paid Grady Sizemore in 2012.. The player is Dariel Alvarez, a 24 year old Camagüey, Cuban, if you want to believe his birth certificate. He is 6' 2", 190 & right-handed. He plays all three OF spots and is currently wintering in Mexico for los Tigres de Tuxpan in the Mexican Vera Cruz Winter League. (..remember, even Jake Taylor couldn't cut it in the Mexican League.. so the competition MUST be good!!)

In Cuba for the Serie Nacional de Béisbol, he compiled stats that would say, this is a player. During his last three years in Cuba, he combined for over 1000 plate appearances while posting a triple slash line of .322/.376/.511. His home run total doubled each year showing a developing power tool. His outfield defense is average. He's not a speed merchant, but he's not lead footed either..

He makes a LOT of sense for the Indians

Now, when you look at the new CBA, Alvarez falls into the category of being over the age of 23 and has played four years of professional baseball. So, he is not subject to international free agent restrictions w/r to the signing bonus pool money. So, Dariel Alvarez would be considered a free agent like any other free agent. Hay esta' listo a escribir su nomber y bienvenido a los Indios de Cleveland !!

Si' piensan?..

by **Prosecutor** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:49 am

Never heard of Alvarez but don't the top Latin prospects get signed by the time they're 16 or 17, 19 at the latest? I'm thinking Doryss Paulino, for example, who's 20 years old.

If this guy is 23 and no major league team has signed him, there must be a reason. Do you have any scouting reports on him or are you just looking at Cuban league stats? By the way, how is he hitting for the Tigres? You didn't put those numbers up.

Edit:

Actually, Cespedes had a great rookie year for the A's at age 26. I wonder why he wasn't signed earlier. Visa issues? How does your guys numbers compare to Cespedes' Cuban League stats?

by **GeronimoSon** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:05 am

Prosecutor wrote:Never heard of Alvarez but don't the top Latin prospects get signed by the time they're 16 or 17, 19 at the latest? I'm thinking Doryss Paulino, for example, who's 20 years old.

If this guy is 23 and no major league team has signed him, there must be a reason. Do you have any scouting reports on him or are you just looking at Cuban league stats? By the way, how is he hitting for the Tigres? You didn't put those numbers up.

Edit:

Actually, Cespedes had a great rookie year for the A's at age 26. I wonder why he wasn't signed earlier. Visa issues? How does your guys numbers compare to Cespedes' Cuban League stats?

Cespedes was more consistent in the years leading up to his defection from that island fortress and was also about 3 years older. The 2011 numbers for both players are almost identical with the sole exception of walk rates. Cespedes was in the middle of a MUCH better lineup, so he got pitched around a LOT.. Dariel was just coming into his own in 2011, when he defected.. I guess you know that is the reason 'no one draft him before then. Cuba has this government.. led by this guy who wanted to be a Yankee.. and when he was told he sucked as a baseball player, he had a revolution.. etc.. I think you know the rest of the story..

by **MadThinker88** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:40 pm

Prosecutor wrote:Never heard of Alvarez but don't the top Latin prospects get signed by the time they're 16 or 17, 19 at the latest? I'm thinking Doryss Paulino, for example, who's 20 years old.

If this guy is 23 and no major league team has signed him, there must be a reason. Do you have any scouting reports on him or are you just looking at Cuban league stats? By the way, how is he hitting for the Tigres? You didn't put those numbers up.

Edit:

Actually, Cespedes had a great rookie year for the A's at age 26. I wonder why he wasn't signed earlier. Visa issues? How does your guys numbers compare to Cespedes' Cuban League stats?

Paulino isn't even 20 yet. I believe he just turned 18 in November.

by **GeronimoSon** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:04 pm

MadThinker88 wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:Never heard of Alvarez but don't the top Latin prospects get signed by the time they're 16 or 17, 19 at the latest? I'm thinking Doryss Paulino, for example, who's 20 years old.

If this guy is 23 and no major league team has signed him, there must be a reason. Do you have any scouting reports on him or are you just looking at Cuban league stats? By the way, how is he hitting for the Tigres? You didn't put those numbers up.

Edit:

Actually, Cespedes had a great rookie year for the A's at age 26. I wonder why he wasn't signed earlier. Visa issues? How does your guys numbers compare to Cespedes' Cuban League stats?

Paulino isn't even 20 yet. I believe he just turned 18 in November.

Yes.. Paulino is very young.. and very talented & due to the presence of this Trout guy.. Cespedes would have been an easy choice for AL ROY..

by **homerawayfromhome** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:36 pm

Here's a post I posted in another forum re: Alvarez and Diaz...

Dariel Alvarez - OF and Adelmys Diaz - SS the most recent Cuban imports have been declared FA by MLB. Here's a brief link...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/a ... gency.html

Dariel Alvarez in 2010-2011 Serie Nacional: .363/.404/.613 20 HR, 18 BB in 376 PA.

Aledmys Diaz: .294/.435/.433 7 HR, 58 BB in 345 PA

Someone (using the name: withpower) on Mlbtraderumors posted these stats, so I'm not sure about accuracy. They seem reasonable and both guys bat RH, I'd love to see the Tribe land them - or at least Id like to see the Tribe land Dariel Alvarez the RH hitting OF.

FWIW, the Tribe are rumored to have placed a very aggressive bid on Ryu - the young LHSP recently poached away from his S. Korean team by the Dodgers for a mere $60+ M dollar investment.

Here's another link from MLB.com...

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... b&c_id=mlb

by **homerawayfromhome** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:38 pm

Here's a second post re: Alvarez and Diaz includes all their stats...

Mlb.com' s Jesse Sanchez says on Twitter that former Cuban players Aledmys Diaz and Dariel Alvarez will have a try out in Mexico on Jan. 5th.

Diaz, 22, turns 23, on Jan. 8th and will not count against teams international signing pool. Diaz, 6'1 185 lbs, is a RH hitting SS with the ability to hit for power and average. Jesse Sanchez also notes Diaz has an above average arm and average speed. Per: Sanchez Diaz is the more MLB ready of the two prospects.

Alvarez, 24, a RH OF can man all three OF spots. Alvarez, 6'2 190 lbs, has impressed MLB scouts with his above average OF arm during league play in Mexico.

The Tribe were rumored to have aggressively bid on S. Korean LHSP Ryu and are shopping aggressively for improvements and depth options for the system. I'd expect to hear the Tribe linked to both of these prospects as the Tribe seeks to add talent and depth throughout the organization.

Here's a link the the original article...
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... b&c_id=mlb

Here's a look at Diaz's stats in Cuba...

Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG HR SB
2008 18 32 .281 .313 .281 0 0/1
2009 19 276 .341 .401 .482 5 0/5
2010 21 262 .282 349 .363 3 2/7
2011 22 282 .294 .435 .433 7 1/3

Here's a look at Alvarez's stats in Cuba...

Year Age AB BA OBP SLG HR SB
2007 19 125 .256 .273 .280 0 0/1
2008 20 108 .269 .299 .398 1 1/1
2009 21 271 .269 .350 .365 5 5/13
2010 22 299 .274 .322 .435 11 5/15
2011 23 344 .363 .404 .613 20 2/4

Here's a look at Alvarez's stats in Mexico...

Year Age AB BA OBP SLG HR SB
2012 24 152 .354 .371 .521 2 No Data

by **GeronimoSon** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:22 pm

Homer.. it looks like the numbers posted in the various spots agree, for the most part. Going from 5 to 10 to 20 homers over three years confirms his power tool development. I looked for some deeper stats, but couldn't find them.. His Tuxpan numbers are even more impressive, considering he has to have been out of baseball for close to a year (from his defection from Cuba to the restarting of his baseball activities in Las Ligas Veranos). At the same age.. Dariel Alvarez and Yoenis Cespedes are quite comparable (save for the walk thing)...

While both would be better, the OF'er is who really interests me.... :cool

oh.. and I liked the way the ball came out of Ryu's hand..a LOT !..

by **homerawayfromhome** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:11 pm

I think there is some projection left based on numbers from Alvarez, it seems pretty obvious that his numbers took a tick up every season something you want to see from a player developing. I find it interesting, Diaz is actually regarded as the better of the two. Personally, I'd like to the Tribe in on both add more SS depth and actually add some OF depth.

by **GeronimoSon** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:30 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:I think there is some projection left based on numbers from Alvarez, it seems pretty obvious that his numbers took a tick up every season something you want to see from a player developing. I find it interesting, Diaz is actually regarded as the better of the two. Personally, I'd like to the Tribe in on both add more SS depth and actually add some OF depth.

Couldn't agree more.. the Indians may be looking at a way to trim some more salary with perhaps one of the remaining three trade chips.. Whether that comes to pass or not, the Indians should be able to add both of these guys if they're deemed or project to being ML level talent..

The Mariners rumor posted by 028 is interesting.. only 49 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Goodyear Arizona...

by **Prosecutor** » Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:13 am

Any idea what is the level of competition in the Mexican Vera Cruz winter league? Is it roughly equivalent to low A, high A, or AA?

I'm suspicious of the jump in Alvarez's numbers from 2010 to 2011. 11 HR's to 20? A nearly 200 point jump in OPS? But - he's hitting the hell out of the ball in Mexico, he can play all three OF positions and reportedly has a good arm. If I were the Tribe I'd be at that tryout.

by **GoTribe028** » Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:07 pm

Prosecutor wrote:Any idea what is the level of competition in the Mexican Vera Cruz winter league? Is it roughly equivalent to low A, high A, or AA?

I'm suspicious of the jump in Alvarez's numbers from 2010 to 2011. 11 HR's to 20? A nearly 200 point jump in OPS? But - he's hitting the hell out of the ball in Mexico, he can play all three OF positions and reportedly has a good arm. If I were the Tribe I'd be at that tryout.

I've seen different comparisons to the different leagues around. Seen Japan comped to AAA ball, while countries with other leagues like Korea, Mexico, Cuba, etc. range from Low A to AA.

So it's quite a range of opinions about the level of competition. Posistion players like Cespedes really are few and far between when it comes to excelling from the get go.

by **GeronimoSon** » Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:44 pm

Prosecutor wrote:Any idea what is the level of competition in the Mexican Vera Cruz winter league? Is it roughly equivalent to low A, high A, or AA?

I'm suspicious of the jump in Alvarez's numbers from 2010 to 2011. 11 HR's to 20? A nearly 200 point jump in OPS? But - he's hitting the hell out of the ball in Mexico, he can play all three OF positions and reportedly has a good arm. If I were the Tribe I'd be at that tryout.

The best way to describe the level of play would be 'varied'.. The teams are made up of players that can and do range in age from upper teens to mid forties. Players can include former ML'ers to local hot shots attempting to show their ability to anyone would might be watching.. The general consensus is the level of play in Las Ligas Veranos is around high A to scratching the surface at AA. The quality of individual players, OTOH, cannot be as easily slotted...

by **homerawayfromhome** » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:34 pm

I'd guess the Tribe is in on both but haven't heard anything to link them to them. The Tribe was rumored to have been in aggressively on Korean lefty Ryu and had talk to Shohei Otani supposedly as well. From that we should be able to gather they will look aggressively at the international mkt. Neither player would fall into the International spending pool restrictions. Diaz will be exempt after his 23 b-day in a cpl days.

As for the level of play, Japan would be the closest comp. to the big leagues, Cuba is sporadic and Mexico is quite mixed. Cuba has produced a number of talented players in recent yrs (Chapman, Cespedes, Puig, Soler), which may drive the prices up a bit.

by **GhostofTedCox** » Tue Jan 01, 2013 9:39 pm

I see the Myers signing as a very good thing. A innings eater who is versatile enough to start or relieve. I think he will fill the role Derrick Lowe did last season. He will have some good starts, some inconsistency, and eventually loose his starting spot in the second half to somebody like Carrasco.

Right now I see the staff as:
Masterson
Ubaldo
McAllister
Myers
Bauer
-----------
Carrasco
Gomez
------------
Huff
Albers
Shaw
Smith
Pestano
Perez

There's plenty more names in the pen. Should be able to build a package for a DH type,

by **Prosecutor** » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:25 am

Jeanmar Gomez had a 5.96 ERA last year and if I'm not mistaken he is getting lit up in winter ball. I think his ship has pretty much sailed. He gave up 15 HR's in 90 innings last year. To me he looks like a AAA pitcher who can be brought up for a spot start when needed, but that's about it. Tony listed him as a possible candidate to be DFA'd.

Kluber is an interesting guy because he's at the crossroads of his career. He's 26 and finally got a shot last year when the Indians gave him 12 starts. He was impressive in some and awful in others. He had a 3-to-1 K/BB ratio, striking out 54 in 63 innings, so he has good stuff. The door is wide open if he can put it all together. He couldn't be in a better organization as the Indians are desparate for starting pitching (i.e., the Brett Myers signing).

I expect he'll start out in Columbus and if he dominates there he'll be brought up before too long. The Indians need to groom somebody to take over for Ubaldo next year, or at the All-Star break this year if we can move him. There aren't many candidates right now. This is a huge year for Kluber and he needs to take the next step. Gomez had legitimate shots the last two years to establish himself in the rotation and failed. Now it's Kluber and McAlister who are getting their chances.

We need at least one and hopefully both of these guys to get over the AAAA hump and become the next Jake Westbrook.

by **Edible14** » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:02 pm

At this point, there's not really a good reason to keep Gomez from being DFA'd. He's not demonstrably better than Kluber, Barnes or anyone else likely starting in AAA next year. He's probably around 8th or 9th on the starting pitching depth chart right now. Even if he is claimed on waivers, is it really that big of a problem?

by **OhioBaseball** » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:27 pm

Unless there is some non-public information about Gomez that we've yet to hear, I don't like the move. You can argue that he is out of options, but this could be a case of roster mis-management.

For a team that had such a horrible starting rotation last year and that has targeted young pitching in the trade market, they are now trading away a 24-year old, 6'3" RHP that has a decent arm, a consistent track record of health and above average command of a 90 mph sinker (greater than 2x Ground Outs/Fly Outs ratio)? I far prefer guys that work vertically rather than pitch-to-contact, sinker/slider guys like Gomez, but sometimes these guys provide value. Gomez is knocking on the MLB door, is going to get paid peanuts in the next couple years and has been reliable to log innings in the minors. But the Indians are getting rid of him, in favor of some very marginal talents that still remain on the 40-man roster. TJ House is a left handed version of Gomez (weaker minor league numbers, though) and is 2-3 years away. The Indians have a plethora of AAAA corner guys in Gomes, McGuinness, McDade, Neal and Canzler that are all cast-offs from other teams. Hopefully one of them turns out be be above replacement level. Cord Phelps is another marginal talent.

There could be a good reason why Gomez was DFA'd that none of us know yet, but I was quite surprised by this move. You can say he's out of options and all, but it's not even spring training yet (injuries always happen with pitchers) and I'd argue there's been some roster mis-management here. The Indians shouldn't be in a situation right now where they are DFA'ing near MLB-ready starting pitching. Gomez may never be good, he may have only one decent year his entire career, but pitching is difficult to forecast.

by **A.Zajac** » Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:10 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:Unless there is some non-public information about Gomez that we've yet to hear, I don't like the move. You can argue that he is out of options, but this could be a case of roster mis-management.

For a team that had such a horrible starting rotation last year and that has targeted young pitching in the trade market, they are now trading away a 24-year old, 6'3" RHP that has a decent arm, a consistent track record of health and above average command of a 90 mph sinker (greater than 2x Ground Outs/Fly Outs ratio)? I far prefer guys that work vertically rather than pitch-to-contact, sinker/slider guys like Gomez, but sometimes these guys provide value. Gomez is knocking on the MLB door, is going to get paid peanuts in the next couple years and has been reliable to log innings in the minors. But the Indians are getting rid of him, in favor of some very marginal talents that still remain on the 40-man roster. TJ House is a left handed version of Gomez (weaker minor league numbers, though) and is 2-3 years away. The Indians have a plethora of AAAA corner guys in Gomes, McGuinness, McDade, Neal and Canzler that are all cast-offs from other teams. Hopefully one of them turns out be be above replacement level. Cord Phelps is another marginal talent.

There could be a good reason why Gomez was DFA'd that none of us know yet, but I was quite surprised by this move. You can say he's out of options and all, but it's not even spring training yet (injuries always happen with pitchers) and I'd argue there's been some roster mis-management here. The Indians shouldn't be in a situation right now where they are DFA'ing near MLB-ready starting pitching. Gomez may never be good, he may have only one decent year his entire career, but pitching is difficult to forecast.

I've never been much of a Gomez fan and it's no hair off my back that we let him go, to be honest. Our depth isn't as suspect as you allude to. With the additions of Bauer and Myers, we still have McAllister, Kluber, Carrasco returning from TJ, Huff... Every time Gomez has had the opportunity to prove himself at the ML level, he's failed. Small sample size, yes.. but Gomez isn't a huge blow.

by **GeronimoSon** » Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:21 am

Interesting read about Indians first baseman/DH Mark Reynolds.. very very interesting...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=19409

by **GeronimoSon** » Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Congratulations to the trio of Preston Guilmet, Matt Langwell and Giovanny Soto for their spring training invites. Langwell could open some eyes as a real force into the pen sort of like we've seen with Vinnie Pestano. Soto is just now growing into his body and is beginning to learn his craft. A big league invite may open his eyes and let him believe he can compete at the highest level... & Preston Guilmet has been outstanding every stop along the way.. while he won't skip AAA, he should be ready if the Indians are in need of an effective strike thrower.. you can't get enough of those guys...

We'll see.. but, here's wishing them all good luck in the coming ST.. Also, Roberto Perez & Jesus Aguilar will be in big league camp to start ST.. Good for them..

by **Edible14** » Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:04 am

I wonder how much time they'll give Perez down in Columbus this year. You figure that one of Marson/Gomes will be down there to start the year, which will cut into his playing time. If it's Gomes, perhaps him playing 3B/1B/DH will open up some at-bats. Perez could be a new Wyatt Toregas at this point... a defensive catcher who the Indians will keep around as a cheap major league depth option, but probably won't ever make into a full-time major leaguer. It's better than constantly signing guys like Carlin and Pagnozzi, I guess.

I'm also hoping they keep Soto as a starter. Seems to me like it would be a waste to fast-track him just so you have a lefty.

by **GhostofTedCox** » Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:52 am

Indians sign Jeremy Hermida to a minor league deal. Former 1st round pick of the Marlins.
Played for the Red Sox in 2010 so there's a Francona connection.

by **Rocky55** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:07 pm

Tribe adding to the scouting dept. Good news but I have no way of judging if these guys can scout or not. One thing in Lubratich's favor is that he's a former player who has worked for multiple orgs. Check it out:

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ss ... eve_l.html

by **homerawayfromhome** » Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:25 am

Rocky55 wrote:Tribe adding to the scouting dept. Good news but I have no way of judging if these guys can scout or not. One thing in Lubratich's favor is that he's a former player who has worked for multiple orgs. Check it out:

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ss ... eve_l.html

Interesting...I have little clue about the scouting side of the game. I do know the Tribe is typically strong in Latin America, and increasingly aggressive in the Pacific Rim. I generally trust Brad Grant with the draft, I like his aggressive approach to drafting, although I was disappointed with the selection of Tyler Naquin last season. I would say as a whole Grant has done well for the Tribe. It will certainly be interesting to see what the club does with the 5th pk in the draft and to see how the big club fairs this season.

by **Chiefroy** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:45 am

GeronimoSon wrote:Interesting read about Indians first baseman/DH Mark Reynolds.. very very interesting...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=19409

Thanks GS, that was hilarious. Probably true though. :lol

by **GeronimoSon** » Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:09 am

Ahh.. the lineup convolutions Tito can use.. The flexibility of the players on this roster give rise to several permutations that can be exploited. Starting with the infield...

1B: The Indians have, essentially, four guys who can play this spot. They are Mark Reynolds (R), Nick Swisher (S), Carlos (S) Santana and Jason Giambi (L). There is also Chris McGuiness (L) and Mike McDade (S) who may challenge for this spot, but, seem less likely with the depth of the roster. You don't get much better versatility than that.

2B: The Indians have Jason Kipnis (L) as the starter with Mike Aviles (R) as the primary back up. It would be a huge surprise to see Asdrubal Cabrera (S) at 2B sometime this season, but not completely. Cord Phelps will also be in big league camp fighting for a spot as an extra utility infielder. Phelps' chances are somewhat mitigated by limited defensive flexibility.

SS: The Indians have Asdrubal Cabrera (S) as the starter with Mike Aviles as the primary back up. Juan Diaz is also in big league camp fighting for a spot as an extra utility infielder Diaz's chances are somewhat enhanced with his ability to play SS.

3B: The Indians have Lonnie Chisenhall (L) as the starter with Mike Aviles (R) as the primary back up, Mark Reynolds (R) and Yan Gomes (R) who can play there as well. In an emergency, both Carlos Santana and Asdrubal can play the spot for a day.

C: The Indians have Carlos Santana and Lou Marson. These two catchers will cover almost all the games for the Indians in 2013. There is an outside chance that Yan Gomes may get a start behind the dish if DH's pile up or an injury befalls one of the two primary backstops.

What this roster shows is a lot of responsibility heaped onto Mike Aviles and oodles of flexibility for the players. Both R and L splits for all spots are covered. There are no slouches anywhere...

Prediction: Reynolds, Swisher, Kipnis, Asdrubal, Chisenhall, Santana, Marson, Aviles, Gomes make the team. Sorry Diaz, McGuiness, McDade and Phelps..

The OF is essentially a group of four guys that can play at least two spots. All three starters, Brantley, Stubbs and Bourn, can play CF. Stubbs is most suited to start in RF when Swisher isn't there. Brantley can start in LF when he isn't playing in CF. It would not be a huge surprise to see the Indians go into the 2013 season with these three OF'ers and Swisher on the roster.

Prediction: Stubbs Brantley and Bourn make the team.

That's the full 12 member position player complement. Pretty good compared to entering the 2012 season....

by **dazindiansfanuk** » Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:17 am

I would expect there's like to be 13 position players and a 12 man pitching staff.

So, add one more bench guy to your list.

by **Hermie13** » Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:33 am

GeronimoSon wrote:Ahh.. the lineup convolutions Tito can use.. The flexibility of the players on this roster give rise to several permutations that can be exploited. Starting with the infield...

1B: The Indians have, essentially, four guys who can play this spot. They are Mark Reynolds (R), Nick Swisher (S), Carlos (S) Santana and Jason Giambi (L). There is also Chris McGuiness (L) and Mike McDade (S) who may challenge for this spot, but, seem less likely with the depth of the roster. You don't get much better versatility than that.

2B: The Indians have Jason Kipnis (L) as the starter with Mike Aviles (R) as the primary back up. It would be a huge surprise to see Asdrubal Cabrera (S) at 2B sometime this season, but not completely. Cord Phelps will also be in big league camp fighting for a spot as an extra utility infielder. Phelps' chances are somewhat mitigated by limited defensive flexibility.

SS: The Indians have Asdrubal Cabrera (S) as the starter with Mike Aviles as the primary back up. Juan Diaz is also in big league camp fighting for a spot as an extra utility infielder Diaz's chances are somewhat enhanced with his ability to play SS.

3B: The Indians have Lonnie Chisenhall (L) as the starter with Mike Aviles (R) as the primary back up, Mark Reynolds (R) and Yan Gomes (R) who can play there as well. In an emergency, both Carlos Santana and Asdrubal can play the spot for a day.

C: The Indians have Carlos Santana and Lou Marson. These two catchers will cover almost all the games for the Indians in 2013. There is an outside chance that Yan Gomes may get a start behind the dish if DH's pile up or an injury befalls one of the two primary backstops.

What this roster shows is a lot of responsibility heaped onto Mike Aviles and oodles of flexibility for the players. Both R and L splits for all spots are covered. There are no slouches anywhere...

Prediction: Reynolds, Swisher, Kipnis, Asdrubal, Chisenhall, Santana, Marson, Aviles, Gomes make the team. Sorry Diaz, McGuiness, McDade and Phelps..

The OF is essentially a group of four guys that can play at least two spots. All three starters, Brantley, Stubbs and Bourn, can play CF. Stubbs is most suited to start in RF when Swisher isn't there. Brantley can start in LF when he isn't playing in CF. It would not be a huge surprise to see the Indians go into the 2013 season with these three OF'ers and Swisher on the roster.

Prediction: Stubbs Brantley and Bourn make the team.

That's the full 12 member position player complement. Pretty good compared to entering the 2012 season....

Agree with most of this. Tribe definitely have lots of versatility position-wise. Nice to see.

As said though, a full roster compliment is actually 13 position players. You currently have only a 3 man bench and all righties (Marson, Aviles, and Gomes). I would be pretty shocked if there is no lefty on the bench (or switch hitter at least). Number of options in Carrera, McGuiness, Giambi, Etc...

by **GeronimoSon** » Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:37 am

dazindiansfanuk wrote:I would expect there's like to be 13 position players and a 12 man pitching staff.

So, add one more bench guy to your list.

Daz... I'm thinking, unlike the last few years when the Indians had the second day of the season off.. and another off day scheduled within a week of opening day, the Indians schedule for 2013 starts with 13 days w/ games in a row. For this reason, the Indians will carry the extra pitcher. Perhaps Tito will give his "starters" (Dice-K/Kazmir ?) a tandem start: Dice-K starts game five & goes 4 or 5 innings, Scott Kazmir goes the remaining 4 or 5 innings, depending on pitch counts.. Perhaps not exactly like that, but something as prosaic or in that direction..

If Giambi shows he's still got it to go, then this crazy idea goes up in smoke & the Giambino gets the 13th position player spot....

by **dazindiansfanuk** » Wed Feb 13, 2013 11:06 am

GeronimoSon wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:I would expect there's like to be 13 position players and a 12 man pitching staff.

So, add one more bench guy to your list.

Daz... I'm thinking, unlike the last few years when the Indians had the second day of the season off.. and another off day scheduled within a week of opening day, the Indians schedule for 2013 starts with 13 days w/ games in a row. For this reason, the Indians will carry the extra pitcher. Perhaps Tito will give his "starters" (Dice-K/Kazmir ?) a tandem start: Dice-K starts game five & goes 4 or 5 innings, Scott Kazmir goes the remaining 4 or 5 innings, depending on pitch counts.. Perhaps not exactly like that, but something as prosaic or in that direction..

If Giambi shows he's still got it to go, then this crazy idea goes up in smoke & the Giambino gets the 13th position player spot....

I guess that's possible.

In fact, with the flexibility of the position players, it could be said that the Indians could afford to play the whole year with just a 3 man bench and carry an extra pen guy (maybe a genuine long man like Dice-K or Kazmir).

That said, I'm not sure I see them going this route.... don't know why, but just have a feeling that they won't be too "outside the box" with their thinking.

by **daingean** » Wed Feb 13, 2013 11:19 am

I could see going with a 3 man bench especially with Columbus so close. The strength of the pitching staff is the bullpen, so with a 13 man pen, Francona can use a quick hook when starters are clearly struggling. On the other hand, Carrera would be a good 4th man on the bench as having a late inning pinch runner type available and a defensive replacement (when needed). Of course, I'd expect to see the team configuration change some when west coast trips begin as the supply line will not be there to replenish quickly.

by **Hermie13** » Wed Feb 13, 2013 11:47 am

I would be shocked if the Tribe opens with an 8 man pen....

Need a lefty on the bench. Stubbs can't play everyday. Chiz may sit some too early on. One of Carrera (out of options), McGuiness (Rule 5), Giambi, Heredia, etc will make this team out of camp. May go to an 8 man pen at some point but not right away.

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