Building the 2013 Cleveland Indians

[timdav]

See today's Terry Pluto column re: why Tribe should consider trading Asbrubal Cabrera. Told you guys this the day of the Aviles trade.

[Hermie13]

See today's Terry Pluto column re: why Tribe should consider trading Asbrubal Cabrera. Told you guys this the day of the Aviles trade.

So did most people on this board....many said the Tribe should consider dealing Cabrera even before the Aviles trade...

[GeronimoSon]

See today's Terry Pluto column re: why Tribe should consider trading Asbrubal Cabrera. Told you guys this the day of the Aviles trade.

So did most people on this board....many said the Tribe should consider dealing Cabrera even before the Aviles trade...

I don't get why anyone would want to be right about predicting a trade.. I just dont get it....a very small number thought of trading Asdrubal the day after he was traded to the Indians from Seattle.. so THERE !!..rme.. What's your point besides stroking your own ego about possibly being right according to the highly regarded Terry Pluto????? The comments section of the article are particularly vicious.. or not. The article is a take off of Olney's posting a few days ago..too.

HNQ...

[timdav]

You guys are right...many of us said the same thing re: possibly trading A-Cab.

[Hermie13]

Jason Bay is now a free agent...

I think Cleveland is now a very likely destination...

Francona his old manager. Tribe tried getting Him a few times in trades...

[GoTribe028]

Jason Bay is now a free agent...

I think Cleveland is now a very likely destination...

Francona his old manager. Tribe tried getting Him a few times in trades...

I thought this too when I read they worked out a release. Jon Morosi wrote Seattle could be a place for him, citing close to home for him & they moved in the fences.

He would likely be a cheap option, but he was really, really awful last season and is too unreliable due to injuries. I would hope they don't go crazy after him and pass over another option, perhaps a better one.

[Uncle Rick]

And who is one of Bay's best friends in the game? Why Grady Sizemore...just sayin.

[criznit2009]

Jason Bay is now a free agent...

I think Cleveland is now a very likely destination...

Francona his old manager. Tribe tried getting Him a few times in trades...

I am not opposed this in principle. However, the terms of deal could change that immediately. Needs to be super cheap, I mean super cheap. Also as an "invitee" there will have to be no roster decision made on him until ST winds down. Could be an ok DH/OF. But if this is as saucy as the off-season moves get.... Lets not even go there for now......


HNQ

[GeronimoSon]

BTW.. Bruce Drennan seems to believe the Indians should trade both Choo and Asdrubal to the Rays for Shields. Then Chris Antonetti should go to Mr Dolan and ask him for $ 75 MM for a five year extension.. This was in response to the Terry Pluto article...

I guess, if it doesn't happen, the Browns should fire Shu...err.. the Indians should fire Antonetti...

[GoTribe028]

BTW.. Bruce Drennan seems to believe the Indians should trade both Choo and Asdrubal to the Rays for Shields. Then Chris Antonetti should go to Mr Dolan and ask him for $ 75 MM for a five year extension.. This was in response to the Terry Pluto article...

I guess, if it doesn't happen, the Browns should fire Shu...err.. the Indians should fire Antonetti...

This is why I hate Drennan. He clearly doesn't pay attention to the Indians history of signing it's own players or acquired players to long term deals (at least ones taking them beyond arbitration into their FA seasons, in Shields case, well beyond). The Indians simply don't offer those kinds of years to pitchers and yet he's willing to give Shields a 5 year deal without ever throwing a pitch for the Indians. Thats just as reckless as signing him as a free agent.

Drennan said the EXACT same thing when they traded for Ubaldo Jimenez. There's a reason people like Drennan wind up in jail.

[Hermie13]

Jason Bay is now a free agent...

I think Cleveland is now a very likely destination...

Francona his old manager. Tribe tried getting Him a few times in trades...

I thought this too when I read they worked out a release. Jon Morosi wrote Seattle could be a place for him, citing close to home for him & they moved in the fences.

He would likely be a cheap option, but he was really, really awful last season and is too unreliable due to injuries. I would hope they don't go crazy after him and pass over another option, perhaps a better one.

Seattle makes a lot of sense, as could Boston or Pittsburgh IMO.

Agree, not a guy I'd want to go overboard on, but think he will be cheap and a free agent option that is actually pretty realistic for the Indians.

[Rocky55]

BTW.. Bruce Drennan seems to believe the Indians should trade both Choo and Asdrubal to the Rays for Shields. Then Chris Antonetti should go to Mr Dolan and ask him for $ 75 MM for a five year extension.. This was in response to the Terry Pluto article...

I guess, if it doesn't happen, the Browns should fire Shu...err.. the Indians should fire Antonetti...

This is why I hate Drennan. He clearly doesn't pay attention to the Indians history of signing it's own players or acquired players to long term deals (at least ones taking them beyond arbitration into their FA seasons, in Shields case, well beyond). The Indians simply don't offer those kinds of years to pitchers and yet he's willing to give Shields a 5 year deal without ever throwing a pitch for the Indians. Thats just as reckless as signing him as a free agent.

Drennan said the EXACT same thing when they traded for Ubaldo Jimenez. There's a reason people like Drennan wind up in jail.

Wind up in jaill????

At least he's safe from prison rape.

[timdav]

Teams that win division titles, league championships, and a legitimate shot at winning a World Series ring have a solid foundation in starting pitching.

We love our Tribe, we're all pulling for them...no doubt.

It's up to the commitment of the owner and front office to dedicate themselves to building a dominant starting pitching rotation...a baseball reality.

[homerawayfromhome]

Do we take the ACab to STL for Lynn and Adams rumors serious? I'd have to think the Tribe would have to send more to STL.

Also, Trevor Bauer is apparently available...Hmm, I wonder if Bauer for Lindor could get done? Just saying I'd consider that move, but of course I'd rather get a proven MLB starter back BUT the plus would be the yrs of control IF the Tribe did anything like that.

[GoTribe028]

Do we take the ACab to STL for Lynn and Adams rumors serious? I'd have to think the Tribe would have to send more to STL.

Also, Trevor Bauer is apparently available...Hmm, I wonder if Bauer for Lindor could get done? Just saying I'd consider that move, but of course I'd rather get a proven MLB starter back BUT the plus would be the yrs of control IF the Tribe did anything like that.

I don't understand why Arizona is suddenly so willing to deal him....

But if the Indians were trading away Lindor for anything I would have to believe they would be only willing to do it for someone a bit more established.

[homerawayfromhome]

I think a lot of it with Bauer is the odd work out regiment that has them upset. He's been rushed to the bigs has the stuff to pitch on the MLB level but could use more seasoning IMO. He's definitely an interesting arm to say the least.

[GoTribe028]

I think a lot of it with Bauer is the odd work out regiment that has them upset. He's been rushed to the bigs has the stuff to pitch on the MLB level but could use more seasoning IMO. He's definitely an interesting arm to say the least.

Olney also noted Dbacks peeps were not to happy with his attitude when they wanted him to pitch lower in the zone. This was just one of a few issues raised regarding Bauer.

I have to question why they would be so suddenly willing to move him. If they've already soured on him then you have to approach his case with more than just his flashy tools in mind.

[ironmike]

Regarding ANY free agents for the Indians.

Shapiro is on record recently stating the organizations internal keyboard geeks tell him a free agent at $9million per year only earns 1.5 victories a season. Don't see them competing for any good free agents, nor should they.

The formula?

1. Rebuild the farm and scouting system

2. Hire the best baseball evaluators to organize and execute the drafts, acquire ML talent (trades).

Until the Indians accomplish the above, it won't matter what they do.

Priorities:

1. New owner

2. Owner creates winning baseball business model

3. Owner hires the right baseball guy for front office with an additional proven baseball consultant overseeing

4. Baseball GM and consultant collectively hire the very best staff and scouts

5. Develop the young talent and core players, add a few proven playoff experienced free agents when the team is
ready to win.

6. Owner bites the financial bullet for 3-4 years, but sells his vision to the fan base, partners and sponsors. He sells
the vision based on how the best Indian teams were built in the past.

7. It is going to take, if done correctly, a 3-5 year window is necessary to turn this organization around and get it in
position to win and contend over the long haul.

Wish there was a better way, there isn't. We had all this in place and it disintegrated on the watch of those organizational people in place, the owner we have now. What evidence of new found knowledge is there to rest on the fact these group of people can turn this around? None.

Personally, don't believe the Indians farm system is fixed or will be producing the best talent in all of baseball over the next 3-5 years with the people now in place. Of course, they (Shapiro & Antonetti) are going to tell you they have fixed it, there asses are on the line. Haven't read any reports from other organizations saying look out for the Indians they have their internal farm and scouting issued fixed. Why? Because they haven't. The baseball world is a small circle.

Not trying to be negative, just promote and keep reality as the top of mind awareness.

When will it all change? Not until a new owner comes in and his new broom sweeps clean.

[GeronimoSon]

blah blah blah.. the owner sucks...
blah blah blah.. the front office sucks..
blah blah blah.. it's broken...
blah blah blah.. start over..

-603 total postings: Of the last 124, 118 have this same message being presented/stated The latest caveat is that the message needs to be refreshed... SMH..

[timdav]

Ironmike does keeps saying the same things over and over: rebuild the farm system the right way with much, much better talent & trade evaluators.

Why does he do so? Probably because: #1-he's totally correct, and #2-he's frustrated at all the losing. Itotally agree with him because what he says is everything I've ever been told about how you build a successful MLBB organization.

Two and two is still four....no matter how tired any of you of hearing that reality.

[GeronimoSon]

Ironmike does keeps saying the same things over and over: rebuild the farm system the right way with much, much better talent & trade evaluators.

Why does he do so? Probably because: #1-he's totally correct, and #2-he's frustrated at all the losing. Itotally agree with him because what he says is everything I've ever been told about how you build a successful MLBB organization.

Two and two is still four....no matter how tired any of you of hearing that reality.

#1-he's totally correct <==
So, who are the new owners? WRONG
So, who is in the new front office? WRONG
So, what isn't broken?
So, when does the restart begin?

He isn't right.. He isn't close to right.. He's not offering any thing even close to a solution. He's whining.. What he has to offer is just unrealistic (go get McCutchen.. Score 850 runs.. Go get a new owner.. yada yada..) Two and two may equal four.. but so does two times two.. So, reality can come in a different wrapper..

Whiners like him are as useful as pickled pigs feet at bar mitzvah....

[ironmike]

From Paul Hoynes, the Indians are coming off a 94-loss season. In terms of trading his top players such as Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Chris Perez and Justin Masterson, Antonetti has an "open mind."

"If there is the right deal, and it makes sense, we'll move on it," he said. "But we like a lot of the players we're bringing back. We still have a lot of good major-league players. We need to find a way to build a championship team around them."

Question, find a way or know the way?

The way is, to have a core of young players coming through the farm system ready to contribute at the ML level on an annual basis. The Indians don't have this luxury because as an organization they failed miserably drafting and evaluating players over the past 10 years.

Big problems loom ahead for the Cleveland Indians. Hopefully Dolan gives up and starts looking for a buyer. There are some who say he already has after their many attempts to find investors has failed.

At the moment the team needs three professional hitters who can fill 1B, LF and DH which represents 1/3 of their batting order, plus 2 or more starting pitchers who can compete / win at the ML level if they wish to contend.

Trading away your best players seldom works. It fills a hole and creates another when there isn't a influx of young organizational players ML ready to take their place.

The Indians are not in a good place at the moment.

[ironmike]

How the Indians went from having one of baseball's poorest farm system to be named the top orgainization by Baseball America in 1992. Read the timeline below of how they did it.

Hank Peters was aghast when he went to the 1988 Indians' camp in Arizona. Although, the Indians had claimed to be developing a large number of talented pitchers. Peters was unimpressed with what he saw. Throughout the entire organization, Peters thought, there was a lack of hard-throwing pitchers. The farm system he concluded, was a "disgrace."

Like many baseball executives, he had privately laughed when Sports Illustrated picked the Indians to win in 1987. Peters was right. The Indians scored runs that year, but their pitchers were yielding five earned runs per game. No team could win with such poor pitching.

Nor was Peters impressed with many of Joe Klein's (GM) favorites. He told agent Scott Boras that Jay Bell was a Triple A shortstop and traded him to the Pirates. He held a low opinion of catcher Andy Allanson's defensive skills and released him. He did not believe that Klein draftees Rod Nichols, Jeff Shaw, or Kevin Wickander had major league arms.

Peters was unduly harsh in his criticism. Peter Bavasi and Joe Klein had taken control of baseball's worst franchise in 1985 and had initiated the transformation of the team. Klein's farm system included such future major leaguers as Greg Swindell, Steve Olin and Tom Kramer, and outfielder Albert Belle. Klein was one of the few executives firmly convinced that Jay Bell would be an All-Star shortstop. But Bavasi knew the effort to rebuild the Indians was not completed, " I think we have the thing halfway turned-around," Bavasis confided to Hank Peters in 1987.

Peters scrapped the Indians organization and replaced it with his own. He recruited John Hart, a baseball lifer, to be a special assignment scout in Cleveland. Hart was young, bright, and so energetic that he kept a notebook by his bed to jot down ideas in the middle of the night. Unlike Peters, John Hart was intense and impatient. But Peters always liked him and carefully promoted him through the Baltimore system. Peters discovered Hart when Tom Giordano, director of player development and scouting in Baltimore, scouted Ron Karkovice at an Orlando High School. "Watch how this team plays today," a scout told Giordano. "The fellow who manages the team does a real good job." The high school manager was John Hart, and an impressed Giordano hired him to manage an Orioles Rookie League team.

When Peters brought Hart to Cleveland he already was considering him as a possible successor. "The first year," Peters told Hart, "I want you to scout major league teams. It will help you get to know the talent in the major leagues that you haven't seen. It will also give you the opportunity to go to other major league parks, introduce yourself, and get to know people at the major league level that you might have to deal with sometime in the future. Hart worked his way through a variety of chores in Cleveland until Peters elevated him to vice president of baseball operations in 1990.

To direct the Indians' farm system, Peters brought Dan O'Dowd from Baltimore, where Dan had spent 2 1/2 years as assistant director of player development. Like Hart, O'Dowd was young and ambitious: Peters was convinced that he would "be a general manager someday." Peters wanted to retain, Jeff Scott as director of scouting, but when Scott took another job, Peters chose Chet Montgomery for the job. Peters added a new Class A team the South Atlantic League. The Indians, who had just four minor league teams and 18 scouts in 1984 operated six minor league teams and had 29 scouts in 1992.

The additional scouts paid off quickly. While most teams choose wisely in the first and second rounds of the June free agent draft, clever scouts find players in the low rounds. Peters scout did exactly that. In 1989, the Indians drafted Jim Thome in the 13th round. By 1994 Thome was contributing at the ML level. In 1990, the Indians drafter David Bell in the 7th round and Albie Lopez in the 20th round. Lopez was so highly regarded that when the Indians tried to obtain Bret Saberhagen in 1993, the Mets insisted upon Lopez in return.

Peters also ordered O'Dowd and Giordano to open a baseball school in the talent-rich Dominican Republic, home of such stars as Julio Franco, George Bell, and Tony Fernandez. For two decades, the Indians made little effort to sign players in Latin America; Peters noted that the Indians' chief scout in Latin America spent most of the summer serving as a coach in Cleveland instead of scouting. That would end: for too long the Indians had allowed the Blue Jays and Dodgers to monopolize the Dominican Republic.

The Indians hired Winston Llenas, a shrewd scout of Latin America talent. Instead, of directly competing with the Blue Jays and Dodgers schools in the south of the Dominican, the Indians opened their school in Santiago in the north. Cleveland scouts fanned out across the DR, Panama and Venezuela in search of new talent. The players many of them 16 years old would be shipped to the DR for development. The major league prospects were then shipped to the U.S. minor league teams.

Julian Taveras a graduate of this system came to the Indians first in 1993.

For limited dollars, $300,000 a year, instead of handing out $1 million dollar bonuses the Indians found a better way to develop quantity and quality.

Baseball executives were impressed. Baseball America named the Indians the top organization of the year in 1992. The Indians showed they could develop players in their minor league system and would go and demonstrate they could keep them and win.

EOM

Lots of common ground where the Indians were in 1987 and now in 2012. All comes down to good baseball people being able to build the foundation, be solid in there evaluations. One thing of note, it took 5+ years to turn things around with a sharp guy like Hank Peters and an entrepreneurial owner who create the right business model.

Terry Francona is a great manager, he's at step one in year one of a five year plan. However, we are only as strong as our weakest link and at the moment we have many.

Yes things are different today, the DR is well represented by the Indians, but like Peters they need to find other ways to gain a competitive edge in their current situation. Trying to promote and execute "snow days" ain't gooing to generate a winning culture. With limited resources all effort must go into finding the right baseball savvy people with one clear objective.

Indians won't get better until they can become Baseball America's top organization of the year again. Question is, who is the new owner and baseball executive out there ready to take a negative situation and turn it into a positive. With all the money at stake, we are closer to the fix than most realize.

[TonyIBI]

Indians were also Baseball America's top organization in 2003 too.

[Hermie13]

Hank Peters also hired baseball lifer Mark Shapiro in 1991....

Tribe did set themselves up with a great system heading into 1992 (Hart's first year as GM)....but then 10 years of bad drafting really gutted the system (along with bad trades). I know people are tired of hearing it, but again from 1992 to 2001 (the years Hart was GM) the Tribe drafted 14 players in the 1st and sandwich round.....8 of those guys never made the bigs and another 3 barely played at all. We basically got 1 guy worthy of a 1st round pick out of those 14 (Sabathia)...

Tribe doesn't have a 10 year draft problem, they have a 20 year draft problem...

[Hermie13]

Trading away your best players seldom works. It fills a hole and creates another when there isn't a influx of young organizational players ML ready to take their place.

The Indians are not in a good place at the moment.

Except if you're the A's or Rays trading away guys like Cahill, Gonzalez, Garza, etc....

[GeronimoSon]

Trading away your best players seldom works. It fills a hole and creates another when there isn't a influx of young organizational players ML ready to take their place.

The Indians are not in a good place at the moment.

Except if you're the A's or Rays trading away guys like Cahill, Gonzalez, Garza, etc....

Hermie.. you see.. that's when it does work..

So that can't be mentioned because the not new owner hired not new savvy front office baseball people who are spread sheet geeks that hire the worst baseball scouts so that they have the team not scoring 850 runs while not acquiring McCutchen...

RME...

[OhioBaseball]

Trading away your best players seldom works. It fills a hole and creates another when there isn't a influx of young organizational players ML ready to take their place.

The Indians are not in a good place at the moment.

Except if you're the A's or Rays trading away guys like Cahill, Gonzalez, Garza, etc....

Hermie.. you see.. that's when it does work..

So that can't be mentioned because the not new owner hired not new savvy front office baseball people who are spread sheet geeks that hire the worst baseball scouts so that they have the team not scoring 850 runs while not acquiring McCutchen...

RME...

Mike is right in theory. He actually has offered ideas -- it's getting good baseball people into the organization. People that know what the are doing and have demonstrated success. Building from the farm system is only way the Indians can compete.

The Indians have smart people in the front office, but I'm not so certain they are good baseball people. I think the Indians bought into the Moneyball philosophy years too late, and it's quite possible they have been applying it poorly (look at the results). Having this quantitative analytics department is nice, but I don't think it offers much to drafting, signing and developing prospects in-house. Once again, look at the results.

I love economics -- I have a masters degree in the subject. However, the problem with econometrics is that you can build equations that look fancy, but many of them are built on assumptions that aren't fully understood by the statistician and accounting for changes in variables (and how changes in other variables impact other variables) is very difficult. Even famous economists build bad equations. Go read any of Nassim Taleb's books.

Anyone with a modest background in stats, economics, etc. can build an equation based on historical data on what types of amateur prospects have the best value (cost and success). You can select and sign these guys in the draft, BUT I think the Indians neglect that they should be drafting prospects that their player development people are skilled at developing. Eric Kubota, the Oakland A's Scouting Director, used to talk about how important it is to have cohesion between scouts and player development people and how important that has been to successfully developing prospects. If you base decisions off statistical models (which easily could be poorly constructed), you're neglecting the important fact that prospects need to be developed by the right people (models don't account for that). I don't know exactly how the Indians scouting department works, but they brag about their analytics department and the results suck. Something is wrong and it needs to be identified fast, if it hasn't already. I think their analytics department has led them astray if they are applying these types of techniques to the draft.

You can point to recent drafts and note picks that have turned out well -- Drew Pomeranz, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis. I give the Indians credit for developing Jason Kipnis defensively at 2b, but Pomeranz was a polished pitcher that excelled in the SEC. Lonnie Chisenhall was a polished hitter when taken, as was Jason Kipnis. These aren't prospects that needed a ton of development -- they were polished. Who are the examples of raw prospects that the Indians drafted, signed and developed? The only HS prospect the Indians signed and developed into a Cleveland Indian over the last 12 years is Aaron Laffey. That's it and he sucks. Something is wrong. Chris Archer is a top prospect, but it wasn't until he went to another organization until he started to perform as such.

I don't want to turn this into a big argument, but I think its foolish to pretend that everything is fine with the Cleveland Indians organization right now. There are problems. If you prefer to lie to yourself and reinforce optimistic beliefs about the organization, it's a free country and you're right to do so. However, some people are sick of accepting mediocrity and it's time for change.

Frankly, seeing the responses to ironmike's posts claiming they are redundant is ironic. I believe much of the content and posts I've read on this site are just the same, except they are overly optimistic. I've read about dozens of proclaimed great prospects that have turned out to suck (I never believed many were good to begin with). You complain about ironmike's redundancy b/c he's negative, but many are redundantly optimistic supporting this organization. I suppose it's more pleasant to believe everything is going well, so nobody complains.

Regarding Shapiro/Antonetti/Grant -- none actually played baseball. Shapiro grew up with a silver spoon in his mouth (son of a wealthy agent), went to Princeton, played football and through connections from his dad, landed a job in baseball. Antonetti went to Georgetown, took some internships with the Expos, worked hard and was given a job. Brad Grant went to Miami University and swam on the swimming team there. I am also an alum of Miami and know Grant's old swimming coach (he taught a class I took about 6 years ago). Grant's sister married relatively famous scout Lee MacPhail IV and got his job through such connections.

These are well-educated, smart guys, but they were really quite far away from baseball. They played different sports in college (football and swimming) and never played baseball, except maybe some little league. These guys have never been a part of the player development process before they took jobs. I'm sure they picked up on things (they are smart), but they've never experienced it themselves. Given this experience, its not really surprising how bad the Indians player development is b/c the guys calling the shots never directly experienced the process. I just don't know how someone can excel at something without ever being directly involved in it. You wouldn't hire a banker to build a car.

There was a big movement a decade ago, the Moneyball paradigm shift. Guys like Shapiro, Antonetti, Grant -- guys that don't know baseball, but are smart that can unlock value in baseball. People decided that old baseball types were too traditional and never thought outside of the box (there is merit to this). Wall Street types could find market inefficiencies in baseball, and a wave of Shapiro types were ushered into baseball. It's been ten years now and surprise, surprise -- the guys that know more about economics, statistics and finance than baseball actually didn't do that good of a job drafting and developing baseball players. Go figure.

[Rocky55]

OB, excellent post. Every bullet point a direct hit. Agree that attacking the skeptic amounts to defending the status quo. Why anyone would want to defend the actual results of this regime, putting personalities aside, is beyond me.Is there a danger that a new FO might make the team worse?

Human beings are variables that can't be defined by statistics. That includes players, scouts, coaches & executives. I subscribe to the use of stats for player analysis but it has limits. I believe that stats are especially limited when applied to amateur & lower lever minor league players. They don't measure command, movement or velo of pitches, range/hands on defense, bat speed, pitch recognition or solidity of contact as a hitter, desire & dedication, or projectability. There is a need for insight & intuition in scouting, plus knowing what to look for & recognizing what you see, especially in the aforementioned lower levels & amateurs. The numbers work much better for analysis at the high minors/MLB level.

I'd bet that most everyone has gone to a HS/College/Lower Minors game eager to see a highly touted prospect & been unimpressed. Maybe there was a kid on the other team, or even a team mate who you liked better. Maybe it's indefinable or unmeasurable but it's real. Then again, every once in a while you see a Rendon, a Weiters, a Zimmerman, a Lincecum, where performance/talent measures up to expectations.

Scouting is fallible too though. Witness Mike Trout. I've personally been way wrong on a bunch of guys. After watching one college game I called Kipnis the next Trevor Crowe. Could any two players be more different? Shows you the value of one look.

What we need is an org that is consumed by the drive to make our team better by all avenues available & whatever means are necessary.

[Hermie13]

You can point to recent drafts and note picks that have turned out well -- Drew Pomeranz, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis. I give the Indians credit for developing Jason Kipnis defensively at 2b, but Pomeranz was a polished pitcher that excelled in the SEC. Lonnie Chisenhall was a polished hitter when taken, as was Jason Kipnis. These aren't prospects that needed a ton of development -- they were polished. Who are the examples of raw prospects that the Indians drafted, signed and developed? The only HS prospect the Indians signed and developed into a Cleveland Indian over the last 12 years is Aaron Laffey. That's it and he sucks. Something is wrong. Chris Archer is a top prospect, but it wasn't until he went to another organization until he started to perform as such.

I don't want to turn this into a big argument, but I think its foolish to pretend that everything is fine with the Cleveland Indians organization right now. There are problems. If you prefer to lie to yourself and reinforce optimistic beliefs about the organization, it's a free country and you're right to do so. However, some people are sick of accepting mediocrity and it's time for change.

Chiz was not a polished hitter when we drafted him. He got kicked off an SEC baseball team early his freshman year then went to a JUCO team that you hardly hear about (only 2 players ever drafted higher than the 15th round from there and Chiz is one of them). He had a nice looking swing but that is not even close to the same thing as a polished hitter. Kipnis was a much more polished hitter than Chiz when drafted. The Indians have developed Chiz as a hitter, though you can argue how well. Chiz technically wasn't a high school kid, but looking at where he played and the little experience he had, he was darn close to one.

Also, Grady Sizemore was out of high school but he was still only 18 and still in A-ball (showing no power) when the Tribe got their hands on him too. If you're not going to count Chris Archer for reasons you stated, then you have to count Grady Sizemore.

Obviously including Chiz and Sizemore still doesn't make the situation look good. The Tribe has struggled developing young talent (though then again, they haven't drafted a ton of high school kids early the last decade), think we all agree that needs improving. I do think (as I think many do) that the Tribe should look at their scouting department and guys there and really think about some changes. I do think this whole you need "baseball men" as your GM and President and whatnot is overblown. What qualifies someone as a baseball guy is a debate, plus simply being a guy that's played baseball or was a scout doesn't make you a better GM. Just look at Omar Minaya who was one hell of a baseball man and highly regarded scout...yet God awful GM. Steve Phillips was a good baseball man yet really struggled as a GM. Even Billy Beane, a "baseball man"...his A's in the last 10 years have only drafted and developed 1 HSer to the big leagues (Cahill). Rest has come from trades (some good some very bad) or college kids.


I do agree with a lot of what you say, but just think this whole get "baseball men" in here thing is an overblown argument. Definitely need to look at the scouting department and rethink things when it comes to the draft, but Shapiro and Mirabelli did take a terrible Tribe system (and an aging MLB team) and turned it into one of the best organizations in baseball that had a nice 4 year run from 2005-2008 and was a win away from the World Series, that despite having some severe payroll limitations. If a guy like Mirabelli was fired tomorrow I personally wouldn't be that upset though...

[daingean]

1. Yes there is optimism on this board but most of us do mix it with some realism. I just don't know how anyone can be an Indians fan with having optimism. Proudly wearing our Indians colors when we are in first place (or contention for 1st place) knowing that any day the other shoe is going to fall. We understand the economics of baseball and how that makes certain things nearly impossible. Yet we still come here and give our opinions on how we can reach the promised land (knowing it probably won't happen). Yes there is some blind optimism but most know.

2. As for new ownership, most of us would like new ownership but I would put the odds of that happening in the next 10 years as 1000000 to 1. So if we don't think it will happen, why harp on it ....say something constructive....as for new FO, it's clear that LD is not going to change it now....the only way we are going to have a winner is within the framework of what it is.

[Hermie13]

Is there a danger that a new FO might make the team worse?

Human beings are variables that can't be defined by statistics. That includes players, scouts, coaches & executives. I subscribe to the use of stats for player analysis but it has limits. I believe that stats are especially limited when applied to amateur & lower lever minor league players. They don't measure command, movement or velo of pitches, range/hands on defense, bat speed, pitch recognition or solidity of contact as a hitter, desire & dedication, or projectability. There is a need for insight & intuition in scouting, plus knowing what to look for & recognizing what you see, especially in the aforementioned lower levels & amateurs. The numbers work much better for analysis at the high minors/MLB level.

Yes, there a very real possibility that a new regime could make this organization much worse.


I agree with the next part; however, maybe I'm very wrong but I dont' think the Indians solely look at numbers and stats when evaluating young talent. If they really are just sitting a computer just sticking a players numbers into a computer and basing their evaluations of that player on that, then I'd agree we need a change and we need it now. Again, maybe I'm way off there though...

[Hermie13]

1. Yes there is optimism on this board but most of us do mix it with some realism. I just don't know how anyone can be an Indians fan with having optimism. Proudly wearing our Indians colors when we are in first place (or contention for 1st place) knowing that any day the other shoe is going to fall. We understand the economics of baseball and how that makes certain things nearly impossible. Yet we still come here and give our opinions on how we can reach the promised land (knowing it probably won't happen). Yes there is some blind optimism but most know.

2. As for new ownership, most of us would like new ownership but I would put the odds of that happening in the next 10 years as 1000000 to 1. So if we don't think it will happen, why harp on it ....say something constructive....as for new FO, it's clear that LD is not going to change it now....the only way we are going to have a winner is within the framework of what it is.

This x10

[Rocky55]

Is there a danger that a new FO might make the team worse?

Human beings are variables that can't be defined by statistics. That includes players, scouts, coaches & executives. I subscribe to the use of stats for player analysis but it has limits. I believe that stats are especially limited when applied to amateur & lower lever minor league players. They don't measure command, movement or velo of pitches, range/hands on defense, bat speed, pitch recognition or solidity of contact as a hitter, desire & dedication, or projectability. There is a need for insight & intuition in scouting, plus knowing what to look for & recognizing what you see, especially in the aforementioned lower levels & amateurs. The numbers work much better for analysis at the high minors/MLB level.

Yes, there a very real possibility that a new regime could make this organization much worse.


I agree with the next part; however, maybe I'm very wrong but I dont' think the Indians solely look at numbers and stats when evaluating young talent. If they really are just sitting a computer just sticking a players numbers into a computer and basing their evaluations of that player on that, then I'd agree we need a change and we need it now. Again, maybe I'm way off there though...

Are you referring to Trader Lane? Other than '05 & '07( 6 seasons ago) we've been at .500 exactly once since '02. You lost me with much worse. You should have put a HNQ after that.

I agree that (as noted in an earlier post) the Hart regime had some bad drafts & did some dumb trades. You have to agree (I think)* that the player development was far superior. Also, drafting Manny & Thome & Sexson & Giles & Casey & CC & Ogea & trading for Sandy & Kenny & Carlos & Omar & Marquis Grissom & Fryman & Matty Williams & Mesa & signing Kenny & Robbie & Eddie & Dennis & Orel...these are off the top of my head, add your own. Notice how we are on a first name basis with these guys. I think you have to agree the current FO could do much better.

I don't believe that the current FO does the numbers only approach but I also think they rely on it heavily. I also believe that they hire bad player development people & that they themselves are lousy talent evaluators. YMMV.

*HNQ

[GeronimoSon]

SMH..

OB, let's start with the concept of qualification.. you've written (a repeat of the "negative", as you said, how ironic), that:

...Regarding Shapiro/Antonetti/Grant -- none actually played baseball...well-educated, smart guys, but they were really quite far away from baseball. They played different sports in college (football and swimming) and never played baseball, except maybe some little league. These guys have never been a part of the player development process before they took jobs. I'm sure they picked up on things (they are smart), but they've never experienced it themselves. Given this experience, its not really surprising how bad the Indians player development is b/c the guys calling the shots never directly experienced the process. I just don't know how someone can excel at something without ever being directly involved in it..

Well, I can tell you than 22.3 % of all obstetricians are males yet they haven't given birth to anyone. So, should you assume that every male OB/GYN hasn't got a clue about what they're doing? The "you haven't stood in my shoes" argument is neanderthallic. You should stop it. You're smarter than that even if you think raising it more than once in a posting somehow makes it more credible...



Second point

...is right in theory. He actually has offered ideas -- it's getting good baseball people into the organization. People that know what the are doing and have demonstrated success. Building from the farm system is only way the Indians can compete....

Saying go get new people that are better isn't right (how do you know if they're better?. You want to listen to the Rusty Mikes of the world crying about the sky falling?)..He's not right in theory & hes not right in practice.. it's inconceivable to believe, but he's provided absolutely nothing that can be concluded as being substantive. Building the farm system.. okay.. with which draft players. using what matrices or what methodology for talent evaluation" Or, is what he's saying.. ".. well, golly geee, it stinks so do something different." then repeating it 119 times out of his last 125 postings?. There is no theory here.. there is whining.. Go get a new owner?. really?. The Browns got a new owner. They're going to upgrade the score board and put up bunting... motherf^%#$#@ing bunting..Yeah, that's gonna jazz up the team to great feats !! Mr Dolan has support this team for the entirety of his ownership by spending every penny that was every generated from the ongoing business into the team. He's NOT cheap. He's operating a business unlike the Liar in Chief who was just re-elected.. It's pay as you go. With that comes certain realities that have NOTHING to do with theory that is being illustrated or discussed by this repeating whiner to begin with.. When you find 10 problem identifiers for every problem solver, it's time to call a spade a spade..

... a big movement a decade ago, the Moneyball paradigm..

Yeah.. Theo Epstein was a ALL STAR with the 43rd Avenue Stick Ball Stickers before he took over the reigns of the Red Sox, applied statistics from Bill James (directly as a consultant) and won two world series.. smh

[ironmike]

Hermie, take a little polish off your ego, Tribe won more games from 1994-2001 than any time in their history. Period. It's about winning, not what color the pie filling was made out of. Only an idiot argues with the facts and tries to manipulate them.

[ironmike]

Ohio Baseball you responded, Mike is right in theory. He actually has offered ideas -- it's getting good baseball people into the organization. People that know what the are doing and have demonstrated success. Building from the farm system is only way the Indians can compete.

It is not about me being right, it's all about what has been the only thing that has worked for this franchise since 1949 and continues to work for other teams. It is well documented. Those that elect to put their heads in the sands, and take to ankle biting easily expose themselves, so be it.

You also wrote.

"Regarding Shapiro/Antonetti/Grant -- none actually played baseball. Shapiro grew up with a silver spoon in his mouth (son of a wealthy agent), went to Princeton, played football and through connections from his dad, landed a job in baseball. Antonetti went to Georgetown, took some internships with the Expos, worked hard and was given a job. Brad Grant went to Miami University and swam on the swimming team there. I am also an alum of Miami and know Grant's old swimming coach (he taught a class I took about 6 years ago). Grant's sister married relatively famous scout Lee MacPhail IV and got his job through such connections.

WOW, now I know why Tony didn't respond prior to my. Grant didn't play baseball he was a swimmer. Wow. Unreal and people wonder why things are the way they are. In order to find and uncover the finer points of baseball talent it won't come from the bottom of swimming pool. Hank Peters surrounded himself with exceptional scouts, he knew as much or not more than they did, he guided young executives, groomed them and delegated, a rare combination. We are so weak in the current ownership and front office it won't much matter what they do going forward they just aren't capable. We have talkers (we will contend in 2012) we need doers. It doesn't matter if the Indians change their ways, it matters who is making the evaluations. Mirabelli, Grant, Antonetti and Shapiro all there working while this collapsed. Why do they still have jobs?

It all adds up to the catastrophe we have today. Antonetti is another guy, he started out selling gifts for the Expos.

Give us Hank Greenberg, Hank Peters and John Hart and we can do it again. Farm system MUST be strong each and every year it takes top-notch baseball evaluators to do. Shapiro needs to resign. Shame on Dolan, a typical beauracrat, he was either to arrogant or ignorant to continue what was in place. One of baseballs best franchises now has become one of the worst. The economy has nothing to do with it. It is all about the lack of young talent that wasn't drafted and developed, poor trades and an owner who was handed a ML baseball team by his father who doesn't know what the hell he is doing. If you ever met him you would agree he is a cake eater.

No the sky isn't falling, it is all about a crumbling foudation that was unattended.

PS When you have a strong system and in contention you trade a few pieces wisely and try to win a championship. A farm system is not about the record of the affiliates it is all about producing a constant flow of ML ready and able talent who can step in and contribute immediately. The formula is really quite simple, but it all starts with exceptional player evaluation done by baseball savvy professionals.

[timdav]

When you can't spend much money for free agents (perfectly understandable in markets like Cleveland), you make marginal trades, and are unable to develop enough quality talent in your minor league system...all you can do is kinda fake-compete by signing journeymen to patch together a team, come up with catchy advertising jingles and image lines ("what if"), run a million promotions like dollar-dogs & a zillion fireworks nights and hope the fans won't notice what a mediocre team you have on the field.

Would you every year pay $100.00 per date to go to 30 or 40 bad movies simply because they gave you a free popcorn and skittles, and blew a siren with flashing lights on the stage?

[Hermie13]

You also wrote.

"Regarding Shapiro/Antonetti/Grant -- none actually played baseball. Shapiro grew up with a silver spoon in his mouth (son of a wealthy agent), went to Princeton, played football and through connections from his dad, landed a job in baseball. Antonetti went to Georgetown, took some internships with the Expos, worked hard and was given a job. Brad Grant went to Miami University and swam on the swimming team there. I am also an alum of Miami and know Grant's old swimming coach (he taught a class I took about 6 years ago). Grant's sister married relatively famous scout Lee MacPhail IV and got his job through such connections.

WOW, now I know why Tony didn't respond prior to my. Grant didn't play baseball he was a swimmer. Wow. Unreal and people wonder why things are the way they are. In order to find and uncover the finer points of baseball talent it won't come from the bottom of swimming pool. Hank Peters surrounded himself with exceptional scouts, he knew as much or not more than they did, he guided young executives, groomed them and delegated, a rare combination. We are so weak in the current ownership and front office it won't much matter what they do going forward they just aren't capable. We have talkers (we will contend in 2012) we need doers. It doesn't matter if the Indians change their ways, it matters who is making the evaluations. Mirabelli, Grant, Antonetti and Shapiro all there working while this collapsed. Why do they still have jobs?

You do know that the guy that gave Shapiro the job that OB was talking about was Hank Peters right? And that Shapiro was one of those young executives that Hank Peters hired (in 1991) to lead the team right? Baseball is full of GM and executives that didn't play pro baseball or even college baseball...or hell, even high school baseball (Theo Epstein for one, Jon Daniels another).

Interesting to note that the only time Francona had success as a MLB manager was working for a guy with no real baseball playing experience....

[Hermie13]

Is there a danger that a new FO might make the team worse?

Human beings are variables that can't be defined by statistics. That includes players, scouts, coaches & executives. I subscribe to the use of stats for player analysis but it has limits. I believe that stats are especially limited when applied to amateur & lower lever minor league players. They don't measure command, movement or velo of pitches, range/hands on defense, bat speed, pitch recognition or solidity of contact as a hitter, desire & dedication, or projectability. There is a need for insight & intuition in scouting, plus knowing what to look for & recognizing what you see, especially in the aforementioned lower levels & amateurs. The numbers work much better for analysis at the high minors/MLB level.

Yes, there a very real possibility that a new regime could make this organization much worse.


I agree with the next part; however, maybe I'm very wrong but I dont' think the Indians solely look at numbers and stats when evaluating young talent. If they really are just sitting a computer just sticking a players numbers into a computer and basing their evaluations of that player on that, then I'd agree we need a change and we need it now. Again, maybe I'm way off there though...

Are you referring to Trader Lane? Other than '05 & '07( 6 seasons ago) we've been at .500 exactly once since '02. You lost me with much worse. You should have put a HNQ after that.

I agree that (as noted in an earlier post) the Hart regime had some bad drafts & did some dumb trades. You have to agree (I think)* that the player development was far superior. Also, drafting Manny & Thome & Sexson & Giles & Casey & CC & Ogea & trading for Sandy & Kenny & Carlos & Omar & Marquis Grissom & Fryman & Matty Williams & Mesa & signing Kenny & Robbie & Eddie & Dennis & Orel...these are off the top of my head, add your own. Notice how we are on a first name basis with these guys. I think you have to agree the current FO could do much better.

I don't believe that the current FO does the numbers only approach but I also think they rely on it heavily. I also believe that they hire bad player development people & that they themselves are lousy talent evaluators. YMMV.

*HNQ

We've been at or over .500 more than the Royals, Orioles, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds....so yes, I think a new regime could make things much worse.

Jim Thome, Brian Giles, and Manny Ramirez were not drafted by Hart; Hank Peters was the GM then. The Sandy Alomar/Baerga deal was also a Hank Peters deal.

No clue why you just mentioned Marquis Grissom, I'd argue that was a bad deal both when we traded for him and when we traded him away. If we don't make that deal, we don't deal Giles for Rincon. I'd rather of had Giles, Lofton, and Embree. Also not sure why Chad Ogea was mentioned...first off he was drafted when Peters was GM, 2nd he was never that good...never pitched 150 innings and only twice was an above average starter. Don't get me wrong, I will never forget the all around performmance he gave in Game 6 (or that ugly slide of his), but if you're really chalking that up to a "good" for Hart then that just further proves my point that Hart was an overrated GM that was simply put in a great situation.

Really after the Omar deal, Hart didn't make any good moves. Sure the Matt Williams for Fryman deal was solid, but then again we gave up Jeff Kent and others to get Matt Williams. I'd rather of had Kent than either Fryman or Williams. Hell, Jeff Kent outhit Williams in 1997 even (the lone year we had Williams). Trading away Jeremy Burnitz hurt too in 1996. Had we not done that and not made the Lofton/Grissom-Justice or Willaims deal...we are a better team in 1997 and moving forward thru the late 90s years. Had we kept Kent we could have saved money on Alomar and gone after some much needed pitching too. Tribe scored 1000 runs and still coudln't do anything. Hart was good at throwing money at players, i'll give him that....then again a new ballpark really helps in allowing one to do that.

I'll give you player development was a bit better...but there were plenty of high profile players that simply weren't developed then too (like pretty much all the draft picks from the 1st rounds). Still think a better GM wins us at least 2 if not more World Series in those late 90s years. I will give Hart (and Hargrove) credit though for convincing Jacobs to move the team to the AL Central (Tigers could have moved in 1994). I'd put Hart up their with Omar Minaya. Good baseball guy and eye for talent (for the most part) but he just never seemed to understand the concept of player value....still will never get over trading a relatively young OFer who put up back to back seasons of .800+ OPS and a near .400 OBP for a lefty setup guy. I mean, yeah Shapiro dealt Phillips for Jeff Stevens, but Phillips was out of options and had been terrible at the ML level. Giles had already established himself as a good ML hitter (on his way to great). Or Richie Sexson for a closer. I think too many people just were so excited by how well the Tribe did in the 90s after sucking for so long that they look at Hart's tenure with rose-colored glasses on...but to each their own...

Far enough on your assessment of the current FO. Disagree some (though I am not an Antonetti fan either) but fair enough if that's your opinion.

[timdav]

I believe I've summed up most of your comments, and what it tells me is: the Indians minor league scouting, signing, drafting, and player development has been fair at best-to poor for for at least 13 years...or longer.

Not that it's their only misstep, but...that's the main reason this franchise is in the shape it's in as we sit here in November of 2012.

Right?

[ironmike]

Hermie, make an appointment with Dr. Phil.

[Rocky55]

Is there a danger that a new FO might make the team worse?

Human beings are variables that can't be defined by statistics. That includes players, scouts, coaches & executives. I subscribe to the use of stats for player analysis but it has limits. I believe that stats are especially limited when applied to amateur & lower lever minor league players. They don't measure command, movement or velo of pitches, range/hands on defense, bat speed, pitch recognition or solidity of contact as a hitter, desire & dedication, or projectability. There is a need for insight & intuition in scouting, plus knowing what to look for & recognizing what you see, especially in the aforementioned lower levels & amateurs. The numbers work much better for analysis at the high minors/MLB level.

Yes, there a very real possibility that a new regime could make this organization much worse.


I agree with the next part; however, maybe I'm very wrong but I dont' think the Indians solely look at numbers and stats when evaluating young talent. If they really are just sitting a computer just sticking a players numbers into a computer and basing their evaluations of that player on that, then I'd agree we need a change and we need it now. Again, maybe I'm way off there though...

Are you referring to Trader Lane? Other than '05 & '07( 6 seasons ago) we've been at .500 exactly once since '02. You lost me with much worse. You should have put a HNQ after that.

I agree that (as noted in an earlier post) the Hart regime had some bad drafts & did some dumb trades. You have to agree (I think)* that the player development was far superior. Also, drafting Manny & Thome & Sexson & Giles & Casey & CC & Ogea & trading for Sandy & Kenny & Carlos & Omar & Marquis Grissom & Fryman & Matty Williams & Mesa & signing Kenny & Robbie & Eddie & Dennis & Orel...these are off the top of my head, add your own. Notice how we are on a first name basis with these guys. I think you have to agree the current FO could do much better.

I don't believe that the current FO does the numbers only approach but I also think they rely on it heavily. I also believe that they hire bad player development people & that they themselves are lousy talent evaluators. YMMV.

*HNQ

We've been at or over .500 more than the Royals, Orioles, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds....so yes, I think a new regime could make things much worse.

Jim Thome, Brian Giles, and Manny Ramirez were not drafted by Hart; Hank Peters was the GM then. The Sandy Alomar/Baerga deal was also a Hank Peters deal.

No clue why you just mentioned Marquis Grissom, I'd argue that was a bad deal both when we traded for him and when we traded him away. If we don't make that deal, we don't deal Giles for Rincon. I'd rather of had Giles, Lofton, and Embree. Also not sure why Chad Ogea was mentioned...first off he was drafted when Peters was GM, 2nd he was never that good...never pitched 150 innings and only twice was an above average starter. Don't get me wrong, I will never forget the all around performmance he gave in Game 6 (or that ugly slide of his), but if you're really chalking that up to a "good" for Hart then that just further proves my point that Hart was an overrated GM that was simply put in a great situation.

Really after the Omar deal, Hart didn't make any good moves. Sure the Matt Williams for Fryman deal was solid, but then again we gave up Jeff Kent and others to get Matt Williams. I'd rather of had Kent than either Fryman or Williams. Hell, Jeff Kent outhit Williams in 1997 even (the lone year we had Williams). Trading away Jeremy Burnitz hurt too in 1996. Had we not done that and not made the Lofton/Grissom-Justice or Willaims deal...we are a better team in 1997 and moving forward thru the late 90s years. Had we kept Kent we could have saved money on Alomar and gone after some much needed pitching too. Tribe scored 1000 runs and still coudln't do anything. Hart was good at throwing money at players, i'll give him that....then again a new ballpark really helps in allowing one to do that.

I'll give you player development was a bit better...but there were plenty of high profile players that simply weren't developed then too (like pretty much all the draft picks from the 1st rounds). Still think a better GM wins us at least 2 if not more World Series in those late 90s years. I will give Hart (and Hargrove) credit though for convincing Jacobs to move the team to the AL Central (Tigers could have moved in 1994). I'd put Hart up their with Omar Minaya. Good baseball guy and eye for talent (for the most part) but he just never seemed to understand the concept of player value....still will never get over trading a relatively young OFer who put up back to back seasons of .800+ OPS and a near .400 OBP for a lefty setup guy. I mean, yeah Shapiro dealt Phillips for Jeff Stevens, but Phillips was out of options and had been terrible at the ML level. Giles had already established himself as a good ML hitter (on his way to great). Or Richie Sexson for a closer. I think too many people just were so excited by how well the Tribe did in the 90s after sucking for so long that they look at Hart's tenure with rose-colored glasses on...but to each their own...

Far enough on your assessment of the current FO. Disagree some (though I am not an Antonetti fan either) but fair enough if that's your opinion.

Okay Hermie, you got me. Of course, I realized when I posted that Thome & Giles were drated when Peters was the GM but since the discussion was about the Peters/Hart era VS the Shapiro/Antonetti era, & I assumed it was understood, I stupidly neglected to call it the Peters/Hart regime.This even though considering I was replying to you & I should have expressed myself with technical perfection. I neglected the HNQ in this case.

Congrats. You got me. I've been Hermied.

[BrianM]

Congrats. You got me. I've been Hermied.

Ahahahaha. Thats funny stuff Rocky.

Ironmike, who is the guy in your avatar?

[Hermie13]

Is there a danger that a new FO might make the team worse?

Human beings are variables that can't be defined by statistics. That includes players, scouts, coaches & executives. I subscribe to the use of stats for player analysis but it has limits. I believe that stats are especially limited when applied to amateur & lower lever minor league players. They don't measure command, movement or velo of pitches, range/hands on defense, bat speed, pitch recognition or solidity of contact as a hitter, desire & dedication, or projectability. There is a need for insight & intuition in scouting, plus knowing what to look for & recognizing what you see, especially in the aforementioned lower levels & amateurs. The numbers work much better for analysis at the high minors/MLB level.

Yes, there a very real possibility that a new regime could make this organization much worse.


I agree with the next part; however, maybe I'm very wrong but I dont' think the Indians solely look at numbers and stats when evaluating young talent. If they really are just sitting a computer just sticking a players numbers into a computer and basing their evaluations of that player on that, then I'd agree we need a change and we need it now. Again, maybe I'm way off there though...

Are you referring to Trader Lane? Other than '05 & '07( 6 seasons ago) we've been at .500 exactly once since '02. You lost me with much worse. You should have put a HNQ after that.

I agree that (as noted in an earlier post) the Hart regime had some bad drafts & did some dumb trades. You have to agree (I think)* that the player development was far superior. Also, drafting Manny & Thome & Sexson & Giles & Casey & CC & Ogea & trading for Sandy & Kenny & Carlos & Omar & Marquis Grissom & Fryman & Matty Williams & Mesa & signing Kenny & Robbie & Eddie & Dennis & Orel...these are off the top of my head, add your own. Notice how we are on a first name basis with these guys. I think you have to agree the current FO could do much better.

I don't believe that the current FO does the numbers only approach but I also think they rely on it heavily. I also believe that they hire bad player development people & that they themselves are lousy talent evaluators. YMMV.

*HNQ

We've been at or over .500 more than the Royals, Orioles, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds....so yes, I think a new regime could make things much worse.

Jim Thome, Brian Giles, and Manny Ramirez were not drafted by Hart; Hank Peters was the GM then. The Sandy Alomar/Baerga deal was also a Hank Peters deal.

No clue why you just mentioned Marquis Grissom, I'd argue that was a bad deal both when we traded for him and when we traded him away. If we don't make that deal, we don't deal Giles for Rincon. I'd rather of had Giles, Lofton, and Embree. Also not sure why Chad Ogea was mentioned...first off he was drafted when Peters was GM, 2nd he was never that good...never pitched 150 innings and only twice was an above average starter. Don't get me wrong, I will never forget the all around performmance he gave in Game 6 (or that ugly slide of his), but if you're really chalking that up to a "good" for Hart then that just further proves my point that Hart was an overrated GM that was simply put in a great situation.

Really after the Omar deal, Hart didn't make any good moves. Sure the Matt Williams for Fryman deal was solid, but then again we gave up Jeff Kent and others to get Matt Williams. I'd rather of had Kent than either Fryman or Williams. Hell, Jeff Kent outhit Williams in 1997 even (the lone year we had Williams). Trading away Jeremy Burnitz hurt too in 1996. Had we not done that and not made the Lofton/Grissom-Justice or Willaims deal...we are a better team in 1997 and moving forward thru the late 90s years. Had we kept Kent we could have saved money on Alomar and gone after some much needed pitching too. Tribe scored 1000 runs and still coudln't do anything. Hart was good at throwing money at players, i'll give him that....then again a new ballpark really helps in allowing one to do that.

I'll give you player development was a bit better...but there were plenty of high profile players that simply weren't developed then too (like pretty much all the draft picks from the 1st rounds). Still think a better GM wins us at least 2 if not more World Series in those late 90s years. I will give Hart (and Hargrove) credit though for convincing Jacobs to move the team to the AL Central (Tigers could have moved in 1994). I'd put Hart up their with Omar Minaya. Good baseball guy and eye for talent (for the most part) but he just never seemed to understand the concept of player value....still will never get over trading a relatively young OFer who put up back to back seasons of .800+ OPS and a near .400 OBP for a lefty setup guy. I mean, yeah Shapiro dealt Phillips for Jeff Stevens, but Phillips was out of options and had been terrible at the ML level. Giles had already established himself as a good ML hitter (on his way to great). Or Richie Sexson for a closer. I think too many people just were so excited by how well the Tribe did in the 90s after sucking for so long that they look at Hart's tenure with rose-colored glasses on...but to each their own...

Far enough on your assessment of the current FO. Disagree some (though I am not an Antonetti fan either) but fair enough if that's your opinion.

Okay Hermie, you got me. Of course, I realized when I posted that Thome & Giles were drated when Peters was the GM but since the discussion was about the Peters/Hart era VS the Shapiro/Antonetti era, & I assumed it was understood, I stupidly neglected to call it the Peters/Hart regime.This even though considering I was replying to you & I should have expressed myself with technical perfection. I neglected the HNQ in this case.

Congrats. You got me. I've been Hermied.

Of course you realized? If you say so....

If you want to call that late 80s/early 90s period the Peters/Hart regime that's fine...but then you need to call the late 90s period the Hart/Shapiro regime as Shapiro had as much if not more of a hand in things as Hart did prior to become GM.

[Rocky55]

Is there a danger that a new FO might make the team worse?

Human beings are variables that can't be defined by statistics. That includes players, scouts, coaches & executives. I subscribe to the use of stats for player analysis but it has limits. I believe that stats are especially limited when applied to amateur & lower lever minor league players. They don't measure command, movement or velo of pitches, range/hands on defense, bat speed, pitch recognition or solidity of contact as a hitter, desire & dedication, or projectability. There is a need for insight & intuition in scouting, plus knowing what to look for & recognizing what you see, especially in the aforementioned lower levels & amateurs. The numbers work much better for analysis at the high minors/MLB level.

Yes, there a very real possibility that a new regime could make this organization much worse.


I agree with the next part; however, maybe I'm very wrong but I dont' think the Indians solely look at numbers and stats when evaluating young talent. If they really are just sitting a computer just sticking a players numbers into a computer and basing their evaluations of that player on that, then I'd agree we need a change and we need it now. Again, maybe I'm way off there though...

Are you referring to Trader Lane? Other than '05 & '07( 6 seasons ago) we've been at .500 exactly once since '02. You lost me with much worse. You should have put a HNQ after that.

I agree that (as noted in an earlier post) the Hart regime had some bad drafts & did some dumb trades. You have to agree (I think)* that the player development was far superior. Also, drafting Manny & Thome & Sexson & Giles & Casey & CC & Ogea & trading for Sandy & Kenny & Carlos & Omar & Marquis Grissom & Fryman & Matty Williams & Mesa & signing Kenny & Robbie & Eddie & Dennis & Orel...these are off the top of my head, add your own. Notice how we are on a first name basis with these guys. I think you have to agree the current FO could do much better.

I don't believe that the current FO does the numbers only approach but I also think they rely on it heavily. I also believe that they hire bad player development people & that they themselves are lousy talent evaluators. YMMV.

*HNQ

We've been at or over .500 more than the Royals, Orioles, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds....so yes, I think a new regime could make things much worse.

Jim Thome, Brian Giles, and Manny Ramirez were not drafted by Hart; Hank Peters was the GM then. The Sandy Alomar/Baerga deal was also a Hank Peters deal.

No clue why you just mentioned Marquis Grissom, I'd argue that was a bad deal both when we traded for him and when we traded him away. If we don't make that deal, we don't deal Giles for Rincon. I'd rather of had Giles, Lofton, and Embree. Also not sure why Chad Ogea was mentioned...first off he was drafted when Peters was GM, 2nd he was never that good...never pitched 150 innings and only twice was an above average starter. Don't get me wrong, I will never forget the all around performmance he gave in Game 6 (or that ugly slide of his), but if you're really chalking that up to a "good" for Hart then that just further proves my point that Hart was an overrated GM that was simply put in a great situation.

Really after the Omar deal, Hart didn't make any good moves. Sure the Matt Williams for Fryman deal was solid, but then again we gave up Jeff Kent and others to get Matt Williams. I'd rather of had Kent than either Fryman or Williams. Hell, Jeff Kent outhit Williams in 1997 even (the lone year we had Williams). Trading away Jeremy Burnitz hurt too in 1996. Had we not done that and not made the Lofton/Grissom-Justice or Willaims deal...we are a better team in 1997 and moving forward thru the late 90s years. Had we kept Kent we could have saved money on Alomar and gone after some much needed pitching too. Tribe scored 1000 runs and still coudln't do anything. Hart was good at throwing money at players, i'll give him that....then again a new ballpark really helps in allowing one to do that.

I'll give you player development was a bit better...but there were plenty of high profile players that simply weren't developed then too (like pretty much all the draft picks from the 1st rounds). Still think a better GM wins us at least 2 if not more World Series in those late 90s years. I will give Hart (and Hargrove) credit though for convincing Jacobs to move the team to the AL Central (Tigers could have moved in 1994). I'd put Hart up their with Omar Minaya. Good baseball guy and eye for talent (for the most part) but he just never seemed to understand the concept of player value....still will never get over trading a relatively young OFer who put up back to back seasons of .800+ OPS and a near .400 OBP for a lefty setup guy. I mean, yeah Shapiro dealt Phillips for Jeff Stevens, but Phillips was out of options and had been terrible at the ML level. Giles had already established himself as a good ML hitter (on his way to great). Or Richie Sexson for a closer. I think too many people just were so excited by how well the Tribe did in the 90s after sucking for so long that they look at Hart's tenure with rose-colored glasses on...but to each their own...

Far enough on your assessment of the current FO. Disagree some (though I am not an Antonetti fan either) but fair enough if that's your opinion.

Okay Hermie, you got me. Of course, I realized when I posted that Thome & Giles were drated when Peters was the GM but since the discussion was about the Peters/Hart era VS the Shapiro/Antonetti era, & I assumed it was understood, I stupidly neglected to call it the Peters/Hart regime.This even though considering I was replying to you & I should have expressed myself with technical perfection. I neglected the HNQ in this case.

Congrats. You got me. I've been Hermied.

Of course you realized? If you say so....

If you want to call that late 80s/early 90s period the Peters/Hart regime that's fine...but then you need to call the late 90s period the Hart/Shapiro regime as Shapiro had as much if not more of a hand in things as Hart did prior to become GM.

Herrrmie wants to arrrrgue.

[Hermie13]

Herrrmie wants to arrrrgue.

Actually I'd like to talk intelligently about the Indians...but clearly with you that's just not possible. o well



And now back to the 2013 Indians....led by Shapiro/Antonetti and company....

[OhioBaseball]

GSon, I don't think you understand what I was saying. Specifically look at what I was talking about -- the draft and player development.

#1 – The Indians need to be good at signing, drafting and developing amateur baseball talent to be a competitive team, citing the economic challenges of the team.

#2 – I question Shapiro, Antonetti, Grant’s skills at understanding the processes necessary to develop MLB talent. Look at their results. Why don’t they get it?

As I tried to communicate in my post I value quantitative approaches. I value market-oriented analysis. This is very helpful in acquiring free agent talent, MLB trades, trading for prospects, etc. I think Shapiro and Antonetti can handle this stuff well. I just don’t believe you take a quantitative approach to the draft and player development and be successful. I question that approach’s merit.

Someone can find an undervalued stock using some equation (like acquiring an undervalued baseball player), buy it and sell it at a profit a few months later. This person made money b/c they found an undervalued company, but they never set foot in a manufacturing facility or did anything to help the company’s operations. All they did was in front of a computer screen.

I think Shapiro and Antonetti are capable of finding undervalued assets, but they don’t get their hands dirty by optimizing a manufacturing process to see how a widget is actually made. Shapiro and Antonetti never had to learn how to play baseball; they never instructed someone how to play baseball.

Shapiro and Antonetti can find undervalued prospects in the draft, but when it comes to understanding how to put the right people in place to develop these prospects into major leaguers, I’m not sure they know what they are doing. Look at the last dozen years. The Indians are one of the worst teams in MLB over this time period in developing prospects, if not the worst. The Indians have had prospects in the system, but they had to trade MLB talent to acquire the talent.

This system of commoditizing amateur prospects, I understand how it can be applied. I am way oversimplifying this but you group prospects with similar capabilities, talents, ceilings, etc. – look at how much it took to sign these amateur prospects and try to put a dollar amount on their productive value as professional baseball players using some set of metrics, such as WAR and other stuff. Doing this, you can get an investment rate of return if you’ve applied the numbers correctly, much like the rate of return you get on your 401(k) or your pension.

I know this stuff has been used by some teams. Keith Law wrote something years ago saying scouting departments were treating the draft like an investment portfolio. I thought it was a cool approach, but I think people are trying to hard to make the draft something that it’s not. Putting financial values on MLB production is really difficult to do in a valid way. It’s not as simple as looking at financial statements with hard numbers in front of you. You’re making a lot of assumptions valuing this stuff – it’s quite complicated. Frankly, the people with the capabilities of building such VALID models are probably working for hedge funds or investment banks making a ton of money, not for the Cleveland Indians making far less.

My problem is that developing prospects isn’t like building some financial model. It’s totally different. It’s getting your hands dirty, spending HOURS, DAYS, WEEKS, MONTHS in the batting cages, infields or bullpens. This is stuff that Shapiro and Antonetti have never done and I’m not sure they know what good instruction is and what’s not. Look at their results.

Shapiro and Antonetti are capable of doing many things, many things that can add value to the organization, but their track record of DEVELOPING prospects into MLB PLAYERS is nothing short of atrocious. How many later round picks have the Indians turned into MLB players outside of a couple middle relievers? Other teams can develop those types into MLB players, but it just doesn’t happen in this organization. That may be OK to you, but not to me.

I don’t believe developing baseball players is one of the core competencies for Shapiro, Antonetti and crew and that is a major problem b/c this organization needs to develop its own prospects. Look at the situation the team is in. Once again, they’ve got to trade MLB talent to make up for the short-comings of their prospect development.

[ironmike]

Ohio Baseball, well said.

You wrote, I don’t believe developing baseball players is one of the core competencies for Shapiro, Antonetti and crew and that is a major problem b/c this organization needs to develop its own prospects. Look at the situation the team is in. Once again, they’ve got to trade MLB talent to make up for the short-comings of their prospect development.

Exactly, right on point.

Would you agree even if things were corrected todlay it will take all of 3-5 years to conted and go forth as contenders?

[GeronimoSon]

...GSon, I don't think you understand what I was saying..

No, really.. I do understand that the results have proven over the last ten years or so to be less than a team in the Indians situation can have to be a competitive team going forward.. What I don't agree with is the flippant " ...ends justify the means..." casual assumptions that are made that go along with this argument:

"..well, the results suck, i.e. the development of players to become impact ML'ers.. so it must be the Mark Shapiro's and Chris Antonetti's and Bob DiBiasio's and while we're at it, blame the owner who is at fault...." This kind of logic is further backed up with the "..none of these guys were in a batting cage for months. .or on those buses for years as the cause effect reasoning for the results: Not being qualified. To quote Dr Sheldon Cooper. "..It's a lot of hooey.." This is simply laying culpability because those guys just happen to be convenient targets. Here's a hint: The guys drafted # 1, didn't perform. 83 out of 100 draft choices in the first round including Indians draft choices don't. An even larger number of those guys drafted after the first round don't perform either. Projecting what a 17 year kid with skinny legs, strong wrists and over sized thighs is going to become.. doesn't require a CDL.. It requires taking a risk. In baseball, the risk return is magnified because of the dollar values and further exacerbated by second guessing savants who look back and come to the conclusion that it isn't the players.. it's the GM. or the assistant GM who is now the GM.. or the Head Scout.. all these guys are to blame.. yet, when you look at the guys selected and cross check them against any other evaluation criteria.. they pass muster at the time of their selection.. Laying blame doesn't solve the problem..

You don't build a team by starting with & staying with blaming.. it serves no useful purpose.. NONE..