Building the 2013 Cleveland Indians

[OhioBaseball]

Based on what I've seen Otani has the talent to project as a number 1 overall pk if he were in the MLB draft. Something i was unclear on. That said all things considered and weighed, another factor I had not thought of until recently I'd make a very aggressive offer on this kid I'm talking $3.5 mil to $5 mil.
If he signed great, the Tribe would then be limited to signing players at no more than $250 K next signing period. The answers simple and was right under my nose. SIGN OTANI, pay the penalty and then in turn trade $2.1 M next yr (projected to get a $4.2 M pool next yr in the IFA) to some of the teams. Btw, i think teams can only trade up to half of their pool money, if they could trade more than id do it and only sign a handful of guys.

This has piqued my interest. I tried to find a video of him and finally found one on the net. Regarding where he'd go in this upcoming draft, I'm inclined to agree with you that he'd arguably go #1. For a teenager, he's got remarkably advanced stuff. To get to the upper 90s, it takes a bit of effort, but he looks to be able to pitch at 92-95mph quite well, with higher velos in his back pocket. The surprising thing is that he's got the ability to spin a breaking ball well (his curve is too slow, but can be spun well and his slider can have some real bite at times), and he's able to throw a good change with a fast arm. Normally you like to get a look at a guy's arm action, his release point and downward leverage from the side and you can't get that on TV, but to me his arm action in the back looks a bit choppy. Overall though, this guy is the real deal. I mean, if he just tightens up his curveball some he's got all of the pitches he's going to need in MLB to be a starter already at 18 or whatever he is.

It'll be interesting to see what he gets, but I think someone is going to go all in on him. I'd like to know his background (innings thrown, etc.) and get a better look at him from the side, but he's very legit in terms of stuff. I think he's always going to be thin and don't think he's all that projectable, but he doesn't need it. I'd be shocked in the Indians got in on him, though.

[homerawayfromhome]

Ohio Baseball,

I agree, I seriously doubt the Indians will make a play on him. There's obviously a lot to like. There are also some concerns as you've outlined as well. I think the Indians should be in on him, and the competition will be tough. I have no clue what kind of talent will be out there in the IFA mkt next yr but to potentially sign someone with the talent of a number 1 pk in draft would be a coupe for the Tribe. As I mentioned there are some tough penalties, there is also a route to get around it... The Tribe could make a serious offer like $5 mil. to Otani if they signed him they could always turn around and recoup the part of the penalty money ($5 mil) by trading away a portion of their spending pool next yr. The Tribe would be limited to spending $250 K on players anyways and project to get about $4.2 Mil under the new CBA rules which kick in next yr. The Tribe could also trade that cash for players or simply for cash as I've already said.

I honestly, don't see the Tribe making a play for Otani but I think they should make a serious offer. Getting talent is the name of the game and its cheaper to acq. amateur talent than to compete in FA. As I've mentioned there is options to bringing more talent. My path would be to offer Otani $5 Mil. And then recoup the a portion of the penalty money if he signed through trading several Million of the spending pool in 13 for cash.

Normally I'd say the Tribe should take the safe route and take that $4 mil next yr and try to land 4/5 guys at or near $1 mil. each. But when the opportunity to sign an 18 yo w/ NUMBER 1 PK POTENTIAL presents itself the Tribe has to think outside the box. If they are serious about competing in the mkt they have to be willing to take risks and signing an arm who could potentially be a Felix Hernandez (FOR type arm) type signing presents itself the Tribe should GO ALL IN.

I've not heard any news linking the Tribe to Otani, from reports the Dodgers, Yanx, RedSox, and Rangers have all been linked to Otani. The Rangers have been the most aggressive team in the International mkt in recent yrs. I'm not sure if the Yu Darvish signing gives the Rangers a leg up, although I have seen others speculate that it may. This is probably a non-issue for the Tribe bc it's doubtful they would pay the penalties but I think they have to make a play on this type signing IF it pays off, IT PAYS OFF BIG...it would be outside the box and add a big time qk moving arm that would be controllable and affordable for a number of yrs.

[GeronimoSon]

Dice-K Posting Fee: $ 52 MM
Yu Darvish Posting Fee: $ 51.7 MM
Kei Igawa Posting Fee: $ 26 MM
.
.
.
.
.
Shohei Otani FA Signing Fee: $ 5 MM X 2 for penalties...

Where's the risk?.. even rusty mike would have to agree that is a no brainer..

[homerawayfromhome]

I completely agree, it's a no brainer to offer on this kid IMO. I've thought through the penalties and the Tribe really wouldn't be hurt bc they can simply recoup the cash penalty next yr by trading several million for cash considerations or prospects.

According to Dodgers asst GM Logan White, Shohei Otani would go number 1 if he were draft eligible next season. When you have opportunity to sign an arm with that kind of potential YOU HAVE TO GO FOR IT.

There's really or way to gauge the mkt for this kid but I'd come out and offer $3.5 mil, up to potentially $7 mil (number 1 pk money). I've not seen an amateur arm get that much and would be some what hesitant to incur the penalty on $7 mil but the Tribe has to brk out of the norm and simply go and get it done.

Simply put, we are talking about an arm that could be an ACE type and could be in the big leagues reasonably within 2 to 3 years and potentially sooner. The Tribe has to think creatively and competively, and work within the system sometimes it means taking risks, spending nearly $3 mil on Francisco Lindor is no different than spending $7 mil OR MORE on Shohei Otani when they can re-coup the penalty money by trading from their spending pool for CASH or PROSPECTS.

[homerawayfromhome]

Offseason Calendar

posted on mlbtraderumors.com by Ben Nicholson-Smith,

With the MLB season nearing its conclusion, it’s time to look ahead to the hot stove. There’s a lot to keep track of in the first full offseason under the sport’s new collective bargaining agreement, so MLBTR has compiled a timeline of offseason events...

Immediately after World Series - Eligible players hit free agency
Three days after World Series - Option decisions due
Five days after World Series - Qualifying offers due
Six days after World Series - Free agents can sign contracts with teams other than their former clubs
12 days after World Series - Players must accept or reject qualifying offers
November 7th - 9th - GM Meetings
November 20th - Deadline for setting 40-man roster in advance of Rule 5 Draft
November 30th - Deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players
December 3rd - 6th - Winter Meetings
December 6th - Rule 5 Draft takes place at Winter Meetings
January - Teams, players exchange arbitration figures
February - Arbitration hearings take place

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#U741FI53mZYqgZxc.99

[OhioBaseball]

Dice-K Posting Fee: $ 52 MM
Yu Darvish Posting Fee: $ 51.7 MM
Kei Igawa Posting Fee: $ 26 MM
.
.
.
.
.
Shohei Otani FA Signing Fee: $ 5 MM X 2 for penalties...

Where's the risk?.. even rusty mike would have to agree that is a no brainer..

THE ABSENCE OF A POSTING FEE IS IRRELEVANT! Just b/c he's Japanese doesn't mean he's any better than an American, Dominican, Venezuelan, etc. so who cares about a posting fee? He's still an 18 year old pitching prospect, so dragging this posting fee thing in adding a variable that really distorts the true equation of what the prospect is worth in terms of a signing bonus.

What's the risk?
(1) He's 18 years old and a pitching prospect. These are very volatile assets.
(2) There's significant opportunity cost here. Signing Otani means you're severely limited in regard to other international free agents. The Indians otherwise would devote the money to get multiple players from the Caribbean, many of which have considerable upside.
(3) The Indians have a terrible track record with these kind of prospects. The only teenage pitching prospect they've signed and actually developed into a MLB starter is Fausto Camrona over the last decade.

Look, Otani is an excellent pitching prospect, but there's a lot of risk. #1 he's remarkably advanced, so I'd imagine he's already got a lot of mileage on his arm. If his arm flames out, you've got nothing else b/c you put all of your eggs in one basket.

[daingean]

Dice-K Posting Fee: $ 52 MM
Yu Darvish Posting Fee: $ 51.7 MM
Kei Igawa Posting Fee: $ 26 MM
.
.
.
.
.
Shohei Otani FA Signing Fee: $ 5 MM X 2 for penalties...

Where's the risk?.. even rusty mike would have to agree that is a no brainer..

THE ABSENCE OF A POSTING FEE IS IRRELEVANT! Just b/c he's Japanese doesn't mean he's any better than an American, Dominican, Venezuelan, etc. so who cares about a posting fee? He's still an 18 year old pitching prospect, so dragging this posting fee thing in adding a variable that really distorts the true equation of what the prospect is worth in terms of a signing bonus.

What's the risk?
(1) He's 18 years old and a pitching prospect. These are very volatile assets.
(2) There's significant opportunity cost here. Signing Otani means you're severely limited in regard to other international free agents. The Indians otherwise would devote the money to get multiple players from the Caribbean, many of which have considerable upside.
(3) The Indians have a terrible track record with these kind of prospects. The only teenage pitching prospect they've signed and actually developed into a MLB starter is Fausto Camrona over the last decade.

Look, Otani is an excellent pitching prospect, but there's a lot of risk. #1 he's remarkably advanced, so I'd imagine he's already got a lot of mileage on his arm. If his arm flames out, you've got nothing else b/c you put all of your eggs in one basket.

I'd counter this with the fact that Japenese HSers are much more developed than other International FA's. Most Latin players are signed at a younger age (16) and have had no or little organized baseball experience (although there is one Dominican team that travels here to East Cobb for a tournament). So by that standard Otani is more in line with a HS pitcher here in the USA than other IFA's.

That being said, you are correct that the indians haven't developed any teenage MLB starters since Fausto (well Jeanmar) but really no FOR even since CC (in fact with their track record Otani would be converted to a reliever after his first struggles at Akron). For that reason, I wouldn't break the bank for him.

Although they will spend about $4million for kids we never heard of that will excite us at MV, LC or Carolina but most of them will fizzle and leave us saying whatever happened to Abner Abreau. For this reason, I'd prefer then Tribe spend a lot of the top guys than distribute it across several projectable prospects.

[homerawayfromhome]

I look at I'm as a high ceiling high floor type arm IMO. His FB is his ticket but he's got to have the off speed stuff to be a starter. I know there are some scouts who question whether he will have the control he needs, theres an amazing amount of hype surrounding him right now too. He has the helium working in his favor right now, as far as signing. The concerns with his work load could be premature bc he's just 18, but he has logged 173 pitches in one game this spring with 11k and 11bb. He does have control concerns but I think just about every 18 yo could be categorized that way. He pitches comfortably in the mid 90s probably where he should work, but he has the flames to throw it buy guys too if needed. I think that's part of his issues throwing too hard, but that's speculation on my behalf.

When you have GMs acknowledge this kid as a number 1 overall type pk talent that top of the draft type arm should register what kind of talent he has. My question is... is it worth signing an arm with that talent or is it worth more; signing a number of talented 16-18yo from Latin America / Pacific Rim regions next yr? What has more value, and when do you make a risky move? I get the Tribe needs numbers, but they have to think creatively to add TOP talent to their system too.

In regards to Geronimo Sons use of the posting fees... I think his correlation is more than these are Japanese arms, they costed more investment to get them. Here's the notation if the Tribe signed Otani to a deal similar to Jairo Beras' deal with the TX Rangers they would have to pay $9 Mil to get it done. $4.5 Mil to Otani and a penalty of $4.5 Mil with spending restrictions next yr of $250k.

My proposed solution to the equation is to offset the money lost through the penalty by trading several million of the Tribes IFA spending pool for 2013. The Tribe could compensate the restrictions by trading this pool money for CA$H considerations or for prospects. Adding prospects would directly offset the inability to sign some of the better talent, so too would the consolation prize of Shohei Otani.

[OhioBaseball]

.

[Hermie13]

Dice-K Posting Fee: $ 52 MM
Yu Darvish Posting Fee: $ 51.7 MM
Kei Igawa Posting Fee: $ 26 MM
.
.
.
.
.
Shohei Otani FA Signing Fee: $ 5 MM X 2 for penalties...

Where's the risk?.. even rusty mike would have to agree that is a no brainer..

THE ABSENCE OF A POSTING FEE IS IRRELEVANT! Just b/c he's Japanese doesn't mean he's any better than an American, Dominican, Venezuelan, etc. so who cares about a posting fee? He's still an 18 year old pitching prospect, so dragging this posting fee thing in adding a variable that really distorts the true equation of what the prospect is worth in terms of a signing bonus.

What's the risk?
(1) He's 18 years old and a pitching prospect. These are very volatile assets.
(2) There's significant opportunity cost here. Signing Otani means you're severely limited in regard to other international free agents. The Indians otherwise would devote the money to get multiple players from the Caribbean, many of which have considerable upside.
(3) The Indians have a terrible track record with these kind of prospects. The only teenage pitching prospect they've signed and actually developed into a MLB starter is Fausto Camrona over the last decade.

Look, Otani is an excellent pitching prospect, but there's a lot of risk. #1 he's remarkably advanced, so I'd imagine he's already got a lot of mileage on his arm. If his arm flames out, you've got nothing else b/c you put all of your eggs in one basket.

Agree with most of what you're saying here. Think we'll see the Tribe take a similar approach to the international market as they did the MLB draft. Tribe passed on Giolito who was also a teenage pitching spec who would have (or was thought to) eat up a large chunk of allowable spending. Risks would be different with a draft pick vs an international kid from Japan, but many are similar. As much as I'd have liked Giolito at the time didn't think the Tribe would risk it and really don't see them taking the risk now on Otani. Even without the posting fee he presents a lot of risk.....though I do think at times you have to take risks if you're Cleveland (not sure Otani is it though, haven't seen or know enough about him honestly).

[homerawayfromhome]

All of this maybe pointless any how. There are rumblings that Otani will be the first selection of the NPB draft. He could end up signing there for the right price, but teams may be forced into waiting until next yr spring or even summer.

here's a link... http://www.npbtracker.com/2012/10/repor ... aft-otani/

[Rocky55]

I look at I'm as a high ceiling high floor type arm IMO. His FB is his ticket but he's got to have the off speed stuff to be a starter. I know there are some scouts who question whether he will have the control he needs, theres an amazing amount of hype surrounding him right now too. He has the helium working in his favor right now, as far as signing. The concerns with his work load could be premature bc he's just 18, but he has logged 173 pitches in one game this spring with 11k and 11bb. He does have control concerns but I think just about every 18 yo could be categorized that way. He pitches comfortably in the mid 90s probably where he should work, but he has the flames to throw it buy guys too if needed. I think that's part of his issues throwing too hard, but that's speculation on my behalf.

When you have GMs acknowledge this kid as a number 1 overall type pk talent that top of the draft type arm should register what kind of talent he has. My question is... is it worth signing an arm with that talent or is it worth more; signing a number of talented 16-18yo from Latin America / Pacific Rim regions next yr? What has more value, and when do you make a risky move? I get the Tribe needs numbers, but they have to think creatively to add TOP talent to their system too.

In regards to Geronimo Sons use of the posting fees... I think his correlation is more than these are Japanese arms, they costed more investment to get them. Here's the notation if the Tribe signed Otani to a deal similar to Jairo Beras' deal with the TX Rangers they would have to pay $9 Mil to get it done. $4.5 Mil to Otani and a penalty of $4.5 Mil with spending restrictions next yr of $250k.

My proposed solution to the equation is to offset the money lost through the penalty by trading several million of the Tribes IFA spending pool for 2013. The Tribe could compensate the restrictions by trading this pool money for CA$H considerations or for prospects. Adding prospects would directly offset the inability to sign some of the better talent, so too would the consolation prize of Shohei Otani.

I'd be interested if anyone could find scout's views on this kid. The only thing I could find was relaying what was said by Ben Badler of Baseball America. I'm no fan of BA, hence my wish for corraboration. Here it is:


http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/10/24/ ... ohei-otani

If this has any credence, we have to ask ourselves if we'd like to pay that much for Ty Hensley or Lucas Sims. I'm all for adding quality talent, really, I am, but stories of overthrowing to hit triple digits on what was called a "hot gun" don't give me comfort, nor do the 170+ pitch games. I asked about ability to spin it, which, it seems, Otani has. I asked also about command but even mere contol seems lacking. I don't think we're talking Gioloto here. As far as how he develops...

[OhioBaseball]

I look at I'm as a high ceiling high floor type arm IMO. His FB is his ticket but he's got to have the off speed stuff to be a starter. I know there are some scouts who question whether he will have the control he needs, theres an amazing amount of hype surrounding him right now too. He has the helium working in his favor right now, as far as signing. The concerns with his work load could be premature bc he's just 18, but he has logged 173 pitches in one game this spring with 11k and 11bb. He does have control concerns but I think just about every 18 yo could be categorized that way. He pitches comfortably in the mid 90s probably where he should work, but he has the flames to throw it buy guys too if needed. I think that's part of his issues throwing too hard, but that's speculation on my behalf.

When you have GMs acknowledge this kid as a number 1 overall type pk talent that top of the draft type arm should register what kind of talent he has. My question is... is it worth signing an arm with that talent or is it worth more; signing a number of talented 16-18yo from Latin America / Pacific Rim regions next yr? What has more value, and when do you make a risky move? I get the Tribe needs numbers, but they have to think creatively to add TOP talent to their system too.

In regards to Geronimo Sons use of the posting fees... I think his correlation is more than these are Japanese arms, they costed more investment to get them. Here's the notation if the Tribe signed Otani to a deal similar to Jairo Beras' deal with the TX Rangers they would have to pay $9 Mil to get it done. $4.5 Mil to Otani and a penalty of $4.5 Mil with spending restrictions next yr of $250k.

My proposed solution to the equation is to offset the money lost through the penalty by trading several million of the Tribes IFA spending pool for 2013. The Tribe could compensate the restrictions by trading this pool money for CA$H considerations or for prospects. Adding prospects would directly offset the inability to sign some of the better talent, so too would the consolation prize of Shohei Otani.

I'd be interested if anyone could find scout's views on this kid. The only thing I could find was relaying what was said by Ben Badler of Baseball America. I'm no fan of BA, hence my wish for corraboration. Here it is:


http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/10/24/ ... ohei-otani

If this has any credence, we have to ask ourselves if we'd like to pay that much for Ty Hensley or Lucas Sims. I'm all for adding quality talent, really, I am, but stories of overthrowing to hit triple digits on what was called a "hot gun" don't give me comfort, nor do the 170+ pitch games. I asked about ability to spin it, which, it seems, Otani has. I asked also about command but even mere contol seems lacking. I don't think we're talking Gioloto here. As far as how he develops...

I don't think he's as talented as Giolito, either, but Lucas Giolito's don't come around very often.

Rocky, you've got a good eye for talent. Here are some clips of him. http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/10/dod ... al-budget/

If the radar gun readings are accurate (after converting kmh to mph), this guy has some serious velocity. I've owned a of couple radar guns in the past and I've never really understood how one can juice up velocities. As long as you're using a Stalker (what a majority use these days) or even a Jugs, I don't know how you can manipulate the readings, but maybe I am naive? Frankly, I believe the velocities in the video. He throws a very slow curveball (with good arm speed) in those same videos between 66 to 69 mph, which looks about right to me -- it's a soft pitch and reads a low velo for being a supposed "hot gun". If it's a hot gun, how does it also pick up those slower velocities? Call me crazy, but I believe those velocities in the video...maybe you can skim 1mph off them (Jugs and Stalkers often ready differently on a consistent basis).

Otani has a very fast arm, good breaking stuff and his arm speed on his change up is absolutely exceptional for someone his age -- you rarely, rarely ever see teenagers throw a change up like that. I like Sims and Hensley, but if Otani can actually sit at 92-95mph (very high velo), Otani is clearly a better prospect than both. Not even close.

I'm surprised how advanced his stuff is and wonder how much mileage is on his arm. You don't just pick up a baseball one day and throw off-speed stuff the way he does -- it takes repetitions. I think there is mileage on that arm, but I'm just some guy thousands of miles away from him so it's just pure conjecture.

[Rocky55]

I look at I'm as a high ceiling high floor type arm IMO. His FB is his ticket but he's got to have the off speed stuff to be a starter. I know there are some scouts who question whether he will have the control he needs, theres an amazing amount of hype surrounding him right now too. He has the helium working in his favor right now, as far as signing. The concerns with his work load could be premature bc he's just 18, but he has logged 173 pitches in one game this spring with 11k and 11bb. He does have control concerns but I think just about every 18 yo could be categorized that way. He pitches comfortably in the mid 90s probably where he should work, but he has the flames to throw it buy guys too if needed. I think that's part of his issues throwing too hard, but that's speculation on my behalf.

When you have GMs acknowledge this kid as a number 1 overall type pk talent that top of the draft type arm should register what kind of talent he has. My question is... is it worth signing an arm with that talent or is it worth more; signing a number of talented 16-18yo from Latin America / Pacific Rim regions next yr? What has more value, and when do you make a risky move? I get the Tribe needs numbers, but they have to think creatively to add TOP talent to their system too.

In regards to Geronimo Sons use of the posting fees... I think his correlation is more than these are Japanese arms, they costed more investment to get them. Here's the notation if the Tribe signed Otani to a deal similar to Jairo Beras' deal with the TX Rangers they would have to pay $9 Mil to get it done. $4.5 Mil to Otani and a penalty of $4.5 Mil with spending restrictions next yr of $250k.

My proposed solution to the equation is to offset the money lost through the penalty by trading several million of the Tribes IFA spending pool for 2013. The Tribe could compensate the restrictions by trading this pool money for CA$H considerations or for prospects. Adding prospects would directly offset the inability to sign some of the better talent, so too would the consolation prize of Shohei Otani.

I'd be interested if anyone could find scout's views on this kid. The only thing I could find was relaying what was said by Ben Badler of Baseball America. I'm no fan of BA, hence my wish for corraboration. Here it is:


http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/10/24/ ... ohei-otani

If this has any credence, we have to ask ourselves if we'd like to pay that much for Ty Hensley or Lucas Sims. I'm all for adding quality talent, really, I am, but stories of overthrowing to hit triple digits on what was called a "hot gun" don't give me comfort, nor do the 170+ pitch games. I asked about ability to spin it, which, it seems, Otani has. I asked also about command but even mere contol seems lacking. I don't think we're talking Gioloto here. As far as how he develops...

I don't think he's as talented as Giolito, either, but Lucas Giolito's don't come around very often.

Rocky, you've got a good eye for talent. Here are some clips of him. http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/10/dod ... al-budget/

If the radar gun readings are accurate (after converting kmh to mph), this guy has some serious velocity. I've owned a of couple radar guns in the past and I've never really understood how one can juice up velocities. As long as you're using a Stalker (what a majority use these days) or even a Jugs, I don't know how you can manipulate the readings, but maybe I am naive? Frankly, I believe the velocities in the video. He throws a very slow curveball (with good arm speed) in those same videos between 66 to 69 mph, which looks about right to me -- it's a soft pitch and reads a low velo for being a supposed "hot gun". If it's a hot gun, how does it also pick up those slower velocities? Call me crazy, but I believe those velocities in the video...maybe you can skim 1mph off them (Jugs and Stalkers often ready differently on a consistent basis).

Otani has a very fast arm, good breaking stuff and his arm speed on his change up is absolutely exceptional for someone his age -- you rarely, rarely ever see teenagers throw a change up like that. I like Sims and Hensley, but if Otani can actually sit at 92-95mph (very high velo), Otani is clearly a better prospect than both. Not even close.

I'm surprised how advanced his stuff is and wonder how much mileage is on his arm. You don't just pick up a baseball one day and throw off-speed stuff the way he does -- it takes repetitions. I think there is mileage on that arm, but I'm just some guy thousands of miles away from him so it's just pure conjecture.

This is a better look than what I've seen, especially the longer one. The kid has obvious talent. A loose, live, fast arm, great extension & athleticism. He spins the ball pretty well & actually seems to control the breaking stuff okay, but not consistently. I didn't see tons of swing & miss but that can be explained. I have the impression that plate discipline is emphasized in Japan (did you see that diving attempt at a squeeze bunt? ). One other reason is that his "misses" are so bad that Corey Snyder wouldn't swing at them. Rob Deer might. Seriously, he's pretty wild. I'm looking at vids of post '08 Draft Trey Haley who had a similar arm & much better command, although with fewer pitches. I'm a big Haley fan & would love to land Otani. I believe Homer posted something about Otani moving quickly; I don't see it. If I was confident in our player development personnel I think he might hit MLB after 3 minor leage seasons but if he makes it, we might be looking at a 23 yr old. Not saying that that's a bad thing. Then again, maybe something clicks & you have a young Verlander. Crap shoot.

Good dicussion, probably academic, but who kew Tito would come here either.

[homerawayfromhome]

You're right that I posted Otani would move qkly, I don't I see him as a polished arm. He's advanced for a 18 yo HS. I could see him hit the majors by age 21 based purely on power stuff alone. He's a kid I think would be the work in progress that would start at the back end of a rotation and would eventually develop into the FOR arm he could be. Here's a bit of progression breakdown...

Yr 1. Age 19 Lake County - Carolina
Yr. 2. Age 20 Carolina - Akron
Yr. 3. Age 21 Akron - Columbus
Yr. 4. Age 22 Columbus - Cleveland

In my earlier post I said 2/3 yrs, I think a normal developmental path for him would be 4 yrs as I posted above . I think once he comes to the US he will move qkly. Not necessarily based solely on readiness. IMO he'll be a guy that will be too good in the minors and not quite ready for the majors. I see him starting as 5th starter for a yr and getting progressed forward in a rotation. By his second full season I could see him pitching as a 3, and by his 3/4 season (age 25) I could see him pitching as a number 1 or 2.

I think all of this may be a moot point as the odds are stacked against the Tribe getting Otani. It would be entirely against the grain of the Tribe to make a move like this. I think when you have opportunities to add talent of his qlty you have to pursue it.

It's the outside the box mentality that the Oakland A's and Billy Beane are applauded for. Make aggressive moves at the right cost. I'd posit here that this could be one of those opportunities. I've laid out the costs in terms of penalties from MLB and also the means by which the Tribe could offset them. I'm usually the type to say 'play it safe' but I'm also thoroughly convinced the Tribe has to change the their philosophy act creatively, aggressively and think outside the box.

I get the fact the Tribe needs numbers and I agree. The Tribe also needs top tier prospects and has a chance to add 1 that would easily be a top 3 prospect in the system. Furthermore, they lack that pitching prospect that says STUD, Otani would bring that. The kid has the goods, my personal opinion is he ends up posting Clay Bucholtz type numbers... 2/1 K/BB ends up as a good 1 (not quite an ACE) or very good 2. Also, I see Otani as a top 5 draft pk if he were in it. I don't think he'd be a lock to go number 1 overall but has that kind of ability. That's the very reason I think the Tribe should make a play on him. They can re-coup the penalty by trading several million of the spending pool or trade cash allotments from the spending pool for prospects or both.

[GeronimoSon]

The longer video is pretty interesting..

First off.. the velo sat around 96 with the range at 93 - 98. The arm action needs a wee bit of refinement from a mechanical perspective to remove some of the abrupt/jerk when he loads in order to come to the plate. Essentially, it's a smoothing out of the motion & that's usually not a big problem..

It does look like Otani has the ability to spin it pretty well.. The slow curve ball is almost scary or will be to a right handed batter. The slider shows good late bite. The change up has some arm side run, however, it's easy to see it's his worst offering & he has virtually no idea where it's going...

As far as the comp to Trey Haley.. well.. there is rough edges to Otani's delivery mechanics and then there is Haley's mechanics.. nary the twain shall meet.. Haley can get the ball up to the plate with his fastball with as much or more velo as Otani but that's about it. Haley's curve ball is thrown a bit harder & is a bit more of a 1 o'clock to 7 o'clock break while Otani's breaks like a ball falling off the table at 12 o'clock to 6 o'clock and is much slower Both pitcher's sliders are pretty similar.. thrown hard, sit around 86-88 mph & have devastating late break to them. While Haley seems to struggle from time to time to possess the command of the slider, Otani's change up is his 'trouble' pitch. Neither pitcher seems to be comfortable bringing the ball inside to hitters..

I like the comp between these two pitchers.. ..I'd like it more if Haley and his big arm were being groomed for a starting pitching slot.. but interesting..none the less..

W/R to develop time, posted by Homer:

Sure.. 3 sounds about right.. faster if the discipline is achieved earlier..slower if it's not.. The tools are there... Coaching can smooth out poor mechanics.. Coaching can't create a 100 mph fastball to go with a devastating slider and serviceable curve ball..

High upside arms with a chance to be a starting pitcher are a rare and beautiful thing. (probably why this author is quick to criticize the mass exodus of SP candidates to the pen for the Indians e.g. Hagadone, Adams, Barnes, Rondon..etc ). Even knowing that surgery was probable for a potential FOR SP like Lucas Giolito, it still made sense for the Indians to select him over Tyler Naquin because high upside arms that can become a FOR SP, a rare and beautiful thing...

If the Indians can get two guys who project to becoming Clay Buchholz, that would be better.. W/R to the recouping of funds from the acquisition.. I don't get it. Operating a business, be it an entertainment venture or making widgets costs money.. Spending it wisely on high upside 18 years is inherently risky, or as was stated in Godfather II by Hyman Roth when confronted with the question: Who had Frank Pantangeli killed?

"...this is the business we've chosen..." ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PteyEDStTOE )

[homerawayfromhome]

All of this is moot right now w/ regards to Otani being picked by the Nippon Ham Fighters 1st overall no MLB team can sign him until April at the earliest.

My re-coupling the funds comments were with this intention...

1. IF the CA$H penalty is the deterent it's ridiculous bc they could re-coup the funds by trading cash allotments for cash considerations. The cash they could receive back would partially offset any penalty.

- They would be limited to spending no more than $250 K on any player.
- They are projected to receive a $4.2 Mil allotment in the next International signing period.
- That would equal about 17 players at / near $250 K each.
- The Tribe won't sign that many players.

2. They could turn the cash allotments from the spending pool into REAL MLB players or prospects.

- They could acq. a useful bat or maybe an arm.
- They could use this to acq. someone who they are taking on only a portion of their contract.
- They could trade large cash allotments for real prospects or as an inclusion w/ a trade.
- They could focus on guys on the last yr of their contracts, or guys who are out of options.

[homerawayfromhome]

It's actually the last idea that I like. Lets say for instance the Indians offered $2 Mil of the spending pool and a cpl prospects to the Mariners for LHSP Jason Vargas I think it would spark their interest.

I know Vargas has one yr remaining on his deal but it would be creative way to add talent w/ the bullets they have. The Tribe could look to resign him who I'm ONLY USING AS AN EXAMPLE or they could look at some younger talent.

I think this is something the Tribe should seriously and aggressively pursue. Teams that spend big like NYY, Boston, TX in the International mkt will be restricted in the future based upon their W/L record. The Tribe could use a good chunk of that cash allotment as part of a deal to add to the big league club now, and that's the idea produce talent on the big league level.

Further, this would be my course of action if they were to somehow sign Otani. Obviously they would be limited in the IFA mkt so why not turn the cash allotment into REAL MLB players. Use a huge chunk to supplement the big league roster.

[GeronimoSon]

In the FWIW pile...but to put the cross hairs where they belong....

...Teams that spend big like NYY, Boston, TX in the International mkt will be restricted in the future...

Rubbish homer... If any one of those teams want a guy, they spend for him as evidenced by the price paid for Yu Darvish.. The Rangers paid over $ 50 MM for the rights to negotiate with Yu, which is ten times the IFA pool value.. In short..Teams getting a stud superstar to be (Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig, Yu Darvish, et al.) are looking at this kid, Otani, and are seeing that instead of paying right now (March / April) they're gonna get to pay a fraction of the price for Darvish including whatever paltry penalties and restrictive covenants are enacted, relatively speaking..

[homerawayfromhome]

I just don't see these teams paying penalties on every player they want, bc that's where it will lead. I think the Dodgers, Rangers, Yanx, or Red Sox land Otani and pay the penalties but then they'll be faced with either holding to 250k next yr on guys or paying more penalties, I do think they'd do it for a yr to snatch a guy like Otani but now a yr after yr thing it could become. It just seems the process is more to temper these teams than stop the free spending and I think it could be somewhat effective overall, particularly if one of these teams land Otani and then see several others they like that want $1 mil or more they'll think twice about doing it... At least before going ahead and doing it. The point is unless they use some discipline it will become a yr after yr thing.

That's all probably worthless jargon anyways bc I think MLB will try to put a International draft in place sooner rather than later.

[GeronimoSon]

As long as the IFA market is open and it's only cash that's needed. the teams that have the means & have the players they want in their sights.. will exploit it.. Mariano Rivera and Robinson Cano didn't become Yankees because of the great clubhouse buffet....

[ironmike]

Pat Mac did an interview with Shapiro over on Fox Sports Ohio

http://www.foxsportsohio.com/10/24/12/A ... eedID=3652

A guy named Terry Mercury posted the following, he nailed it.

This interview is exasperating. Shapiro never addresses the #1 reason that his teams suck: His drafting has been appalling. Shapiro hasn't drafted a single quality player, and that has nothing to do with market size or finances.

The second issue that goes unaddressed is the focus on horrible ballplayers. Jack Hannahan is 32, has been in the league for six years and has 6.6 career wins about replacement-- that's a utility player. Chisenhall puts up 1.0 WAR in 223 plate appearances, and he can't win a job because Shapiro is concerned about his defense.

Casey Kotchman, in nine seasons, is 6.5 wins above replacement. That statistic means that he is identical to a replacement player-- a guy kicking around AAA, who doesn't cost you anything much to get. Russ Canzler is a replacement player-- but he'll cost you less than Canzler. And because he is younger and has played less, he has some chance to improve.

Third is the annual waste of $15-20 million on pond scum every year. Kotchman. Derek Lowe. The Ghost of Grady Sizemore. You're in eight figures right there. Shapiro wants to talk about how sad it is that Hafner and Westbrook. Yes, that was unfortunate. But every year they take on players who are sucking wind, like Kerry Wood, Russ Branyan, et al.

Fourth is the 1915-style approach to roster-building, where it is not important if the team hits, and it is especially unimportant if they hit for power. Mark Shapiro is the only executive in baseball that I know who looks for defense from his fist baseman, third baseman, leftfielder and rightfielder-- and then plays borderline defenders up the middle because they can hit.

Fifth is the Kremlin-style approach to baseball, where everyone in the organization has to speak Shapiro-Babble. Shapiro picks his manager's coaching staff, and makes sure they all agree with his crack-brained notions. The only reasons the Indians ever got good was because Eric had the guts to fire the coaches Shapiro kept trying to stick him with.

A manager has impact on a roster by looking at players who come across his field of vision and telling his GM "Hey, I like him-- he can help us-- let's get him." Gary Roenicke and John Lowenstein were examples of players that Earl Weaver pressed the Orioles to get. Tony LaRussa had the spooky ability to look at a bad pitchers and say "I can fix him." Billy Martin would pull players out of the low minors because he say something in them.

In Shapiro-Land, the manager never gets to do that. The front office decides that Jason Donald can play left field and third base, and the manager is stuck trying to make that work. Charlie Manuel decided that C.C. Sabathia, after one year in A ball, was ready for the majors. Shapiro wanted to keep him down in the farm system 2-3 more years. The only reason that didn't happen was that John Hart was in charge. Thanks to Shapiro's iron grip on the roster, the manager just gets to take the fall for the front office screwups.

This team isn't going anywhere, and it doesn't matter how much money they have or do not have. They do not understand what major-league talent is, and that will not change until the Dolans fire Shapiro and CHris Antonetti and get in someone who understands baseball.

[OhioBaseball]

Pat Mac did an interview with Shapiro over on Fox Sports Ohio

http://www.foxsportsohio.com/10/24/12/A ... eedID=3652

A guy named Terry Mercury posted the following, he nailed it.

This interview is exasperating. Shapiro never addresses the #1 reason that his teams suck: His drafting has been appalling. Shapiro hasn't drafted a single quality player, and that has nothing to do with market size or finances.

Ironmike, you may get a few posts from people telling you that you're a broken record and too negative, but you're right.

I read this article and was very frustrated afterward. Mark Shapiro just doesn't get it.

#1 - Shapiro discusses the "business" of baseball and alludes to his appreciation for it. Are you kidding me? Nobody shows up to games, your MLB team sucks and your farm system sucks. Even one of your best players has publicly stated (numerous times) how bad the franchise is and how others don't want to be Cleveland Indians. What exactly about business are you good at? If you were a publicly traded company, you'd have analysts all over your ass. What's your business, Shapiro? Collecting welfare checks from the MLB Central Fund and calling it a day?

#2 - Shapiro says that the Indians last 3 drafts have been "very good". If that is true, why is the farm system so terrible? The Indians have 1 top 100 prospect. The last 3 may be better than the previous years, but to call victory on your most recent drafts is very premature. The Indians spent a lot of money on the 2010 draft and have very little to show for their investment. He grades their drafts as good b/c they got players they wanted, but what is to lead us to trust your talent evaluation if you concede that your 5-6 drafts before that were "not good"? Your baseball people also blew the Sabathia and Lee trades. It's a trend, not coincidence.

#3 - Shapiro's defense of the blown Sabathia and Lee trades is appalling. He basically says the Indians are better off b/c they got more than the draft compensation picks they otherwise would have received for them are more valuable. Right, Mark. You set the bar awfully low there. The Indians traded two guys that matched up in Game 1 of the World Series shortly after being traded, and all you got was a few spare MLB pieces to this point. I like Carrasco, am still waiting for him to do something. The Indians made bad trades -- talent evaluation and development failed.

#4 - His answer to "when the Indians lose money, do owners have to make it up?" was "Yes. it comes out of pocket" You mean out of the pockets of the owners of the Yankees, Angels and Phillies through revenue sharing. Very deceptive answer.

Ironmike, I had the same reaction to you. I'm sick of reading these soft-ball interviews of Indians personnel. The MLB team was one of the worst in baseball last year, the farm system is terrible and nobody shows up to games. What exactly is good about the state of the Cleveland Indians right now? The fact is the Indians scouting and player development departments are some of the worst in MLB (you don't agree? look at the talent in this organization and compare it to others') and this wasn't even breached upon by Shapiro in the interview. Is it too much to ask for this GM to acknowledge the problem and tell us what they are doing to solve it??? It's incredibly frustrating.

Honestly, I don't think Dolan even cares. He used debt to buy the team and is using the proceeds from MLB revenue sharing to pay off the debt, grow his equity position in the team so he can sell it when he owns it outright. I work in banking -- I tell my friends at work what they think of this investment and not a single person believes it's a bad idea. The only risk is that the whole revenue sharing system breaks down and unprofitable teams are actually responsible for their own losses -- as long as that doesn't happen, you're golden. You use stable, reliable cash flows to repay debt and grow equity. It's like buying a house, renting it out and having someone else pay off your mortgage. Dolan is no dummy. It's a great investment and diversifies you away from industrial markets that are actually financially competitive (unlike the economics of MLB).

Hey look, I don't want to piss people off, but it's really frustrating following a team that sucks so bad and is doing nothing about it. I really don't want to make a big conversation about this -- I far prefer conversing with you guys on the value of an 18 year old Japanese pitching prospect, or who the Indians should draft at #5 next year. I'm just sincerely bothered by management.

I've wanted to like the Indians management for a long time. Back in 2002, I was in Ypsilanti, Michigan, watching Luke Hagerty of Ball State pitch on a Saturday afternoon and I met Mark Shapiro. It was really cool. I saw him a few other times at college games, too. A year later, scouting Justin Verlander on Team USA in Strongsville, OH I met John Mirabelli and one of his cross checkers. He was really nice and it was a great experience for a young guy. I've always supported these guys, but their time is up. The glimmer has wore off. The Cleveland Indians cannot be even a .500 team if their scouting and development teams are even average -- the Indians need to have some of the best scouting and development teams in MLB if this team is ever going to be competitive for an American League title. Bottom line. These guys just aren't getting it done.

You deserve better than this, Cleveland. It's time you realize it.

[A.Zajac]

One of the major reasons why I've stopped posting in this thread and stopped posting in generally lately is because we basically have 10 pages of the same thing over and over. "Shapiro is an idiot. Fire him. He doesn't know what he's doing. CA is an idiot. Fire him. He doesn't know what he's doing. They're in over their heads. They've done everything wrong."

What I'd do to have the old message board back... and as much as I hate saying this, I'd almost take Dennis Nosco back over this. And that's REALLY saying something.

[Rocky55]

DOGPILE!!!! Sorry Andrew.

Shap Sez: The business side is doing great, we must reward them. How about season tickets??? No, that's a punishment.

Shap Sez: Willingham performed better than "anyone" thought he would. So, we aren't at fault. Besides which, we offered him more money...just fewer years. We couldn't go 3yrs because we needed the money for Grady. Also, there's our "adversity" to risk; Princeton education. I think he means "aversion".

Shap Sez: We got Brantley for CC. Unless you're "lucky" you can't land anyone as good after the 1st round in the draft. In the '09 Draft, we had: #40 Tyler Skaggs, #63 Jason Kipnis, #80 Patrick Corbin, #82 Kyle Seager, #147 Brandon Belt, #246 Paul Goldschmidt. These are guys who have made their MLB debuts & are arguably as good as or better(more valuable to the Indians) than Brantley.

Shap Sez: I'm focusing on "over-exceeding expectations" w/r to the ticket takers, ushers, "scoreboard experience"(?), in park entertainment, and promotions. You know, all of the important stuff. This was his answer about why he hasn't been able to land a competent LF or 1B.

Shap Sez: In Free Agency spending, $9 million only nets 1 win, $15 million, 1.5 wins. Statisticians agree, so it has to be true. Of course, a Willingham or a Cody Ross out-performing our numbers guys' expectations are outliers. That will never happen again. Next question!

There's more but I'm depressed enough. We're doomed.

[ironmike]

Ohio Baseball, agree.

The egos here like to gloss over the truth, bury their heads in the sand. Sooner or later reality has to take over the situation and it finally did.

In that interview there is a real disturbing statement made by Shapiro, he says, we had bad drafts for 5-6 years and we are paying dearly for it now.

No kidding.

The big and alarming question to all Indian fans should be, why did it take them 5-6 years to figure it out, come to grips with it? That is a huge blunder. Changes should have been made after two years. How long did Mirabelli keep his job? Mark Shapiro took his eye off the ball. Lousy drafts, the lifeblood of the team, have put this franchise back 10 years and in serious, serious jeopardy.

They dug their own hole.

And, the same people are trying to resurrect all of this. It won't likely happen. Managers won't make a significant difference, they don't win without talent.

[GeronimoSon]

Initial response to the interview: Mark Shapiro was introspective and sincerely replied to the questions asked. He gave somewhat "measured responses in some instances", however, they were as truthful as could be expected from any front office executive in the business of baseball. In short, he didn't run away from the failings, he didn't over state successes, nor did he look to blame the un-level playing field where the Indians conduct business.

For the glass half empty/culpability mongers: If you were looking for a confession and admission of abject failure along with a suicidal comment on the continued career with the Indians, sorry, that wasn't going to happen.. nor will it ever happen & is completely undeserved...

The postings on this forum are typical.. a littany of rehashing of the same crap we have 10 pages of.. Really!!??.. Princeton education: adversity v. aversion?.. rme..

[BrianM]

I enjoyed the interview for one reason...he took blame for not putting enough research into Jason Knapp's injury concerns prior to the trade.

[Rocky55]

Irony abounds.

The same people who repsond to any Iron Mike post with name calling & childish "blah, blah, blah" excuse Shap for...blah, blah, blah.

To paraphrase Matthew: "Why do you see the mote in your brother's eye but fail to notice the beam in your own eye?"

Two posters in the comments section used the term "measured". Must be a new buzzword. I'm always the last to know about these things.

Is it too much to expect from the team president to answer questions simply & directly without evasions & florid flourishes? "Over-exceeding expectations"? Is that Doubleplusgood? Was that an interview or a motivational seminar? I'm still wating for the answer to the question about the difficulty in finding a LF and/or a 1B.

"...how do you measure, compensate, reward the business side of the operation separate from the team performance?"

I might start by giving performance bonuses based on attendance. Of course, you might hear grumbling from the troops about the difficulty of improving attendance when the Prez/GM aren't doing their jobs.

No one is expecting them to perform seppuku, we just expect them to perform. If they "over-exceed expectations" in the area of player acquisitions the complaints will subside. That, and stop giving inane, insipid interviews. Enough with the blah, blah, blah.

[GhostofTedCox]

I enjoyed the Shapiro interview quite a bit. He has much different challenges on the business side. I am not a Shapiro basher.

I agree that the present plight of the team is due in large part to horrendous drafting and player development when he was in charge. But was that due to poor scouting and player evaluation, lack of budget, poor strategy, coaching, etc? (or bad luck like Adam Miller). I hope they figured it out.

Add to that the poor local economy and low budget ownership, and you have a pretty unattractive job. Actually Shapiro seems pretty sharp compared to the present GM.

I feel a flaw the Indians FO has had in the past,and now, is the lack of a crusty old baseball type as an adviser. Too many spreadsheets, not enough tobacco juice.

[homerawayfromhome]

Here's a FA break down on two FA arms I think the Indians should look seriously at.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/f ... anton.html

I'd like to see the Tribe land at least one of the two, but preferably both. My guess is they both sign 2/3 yr deals for around $8 Mil per yr.

[daingean]

Let's face it.....it doesn't matter what we say/post here....we are stuck with the current FO for the foreseeable future. Despite what everyone feels. Complaining any longer is just bellyaching. I just want the Indians to improve and it is going to have to come from the current FO team if it's going to happen at all.

1. Yes poor drafting has gotten us to this point. The same scouting department that drafted the Huff, Aubrye, Sowers, Gutherie, Mills, Crowe were also responsible for turning Colon into C. Lee and Sizemore (combined they were more productive than Colon was after) and also turning 2 journeymen into Asdrubal and Choo. To be in balance these were as good of trades as we could have made. You can add in Blake for Santana and Delarosa for CPerez.....But yes the drafting was bad mostly because of the philosophy of taking guys early that were close the majors but had limited ceilings. Let me say this the philosophy has changed but it will take a few years to be able to properly evaluate everything (Chiz and Kip are here now but still are still developing to reach their ceilings). I applaud the new philosophy of going more athletic.

As far as how long it took them to make a change on the bad drafts, no draft can be fully evaluated until 4-6 years afterward. But it is a shame that we wasted all of those compensation picks we got from Manny and Thome (and others).

2. Another issue with getting there was signing a sore-shouldered DH only who only played about 90 games a year. He took up a needed roster space and $ millions which could have been used to acquire valuable pieces.

3. Sticking with "Losing April and May" Wedge but he's gone now (so is "Second Half Collapse" Acta).

We can sit and bellyache about the FO but it serves no purpose - LD is not going to sell the team and he does not appear to be ready to jettison the FO. We are stuck with them. Personally, I am not optimistic.....but I am hopeful (because that is all I've got). In truth, we are better off than the '80's and remember that the '80's fed the '90's revival.

[Hermie13]

Here's a FA break down on two FA arms I think the Indians should look seriously at.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/f ... anton.html

I'd like to see the Tribe land at least one of the two, but preferably both. My guess is they both sign 2/3 yr deals for around $8 Mil per yr.

Personally not a fan of Blanton at all. Over the past 5 seasons only once did he post an ERA under 4.60 for the whole season (4.05 in 2009), and that's while pitching in the NL. 2009 was also the only season had had an above average ERA (104 ERA+). He hasn't reached 200 innings in any of those 5 seasons either (though over 170 a few times). If someone is willing to give him a 2 or 3 year deal that's fine, but I sure as hell hope it's not Cleveland, especially at $8M a year...

Not a huge fan of Saunders but has thrown 200 innings in 2 of the last 3 years and pitched well in Baltimroe down the stretch this year, which isn't an easy park to pitch in (plus the division is tough). Helps that he's a lefty too. Think 2 or 3 years at $8M is too steep, but probably what he'll get from someone. Wouldn't hate getting him but would prefer to look elsewhere.

I just feel the Tribe has guys somewhat similar to Saunders and Blanton on the roster already. I know Masterson took a step back but did throw over 200 innings. Ubaldo stunk but threw more innings than Saunders this year and has been an inning eater the last few years. The Tribe IMO doesn't really need one or two $8M #3/4 starters added to this rotation, they need a top of the rotation guy (or a rebuild but that's for another discussion). I mean, yeah either Saunders or Blanton would be an improve to this rotation, but don't think the high cost in dollars/years is that justifiable. Maybe for one (Saunders) but definitely not for both unless the Indians have dealt away one or both of Masterson/Ubaldo. At least that's my opinion...

[OhioBaseball]

One of the major reasons why I've stopped posting in this thread and stopped posting in generally lately is because we basically have 10 pages of the same thing over and over. "Shapiro is an idiot. Fire him. He doesn't know what he's doing. CA is an idiot. Fire him. He doesn't know what he's doing. They're in over their heads. They've done everything wrong."

What I'd do to have the old message board back... and as much as I hate saying this, I'd almost take Dennis Nosco back over this. And that's REALLY saying something.

Hey Andrew,

Would you prefer us to talk about how if the Indians signed Mike Napoli this off-season and how that'd propel the Indians to an AL Central Division Title next year? Would you prefer us penciling in Tony Wolters as this teams 2b in 2014 and expecting him to be Dustin Pedroia for years to come? Maybe you'd instead prefer to discuss how awesome this rotation will be with Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff and Corey Kluber??

It you prefer to live in fantasy land, fine.

"Insanity" is often defined as doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results. I fear that 5 more years of the current administration implementing the same policies will land us where we are now in 2017. If that sounds irrational and misguided, by all means please re-educate me.

[GeronimoSon]

One of the major reasons why I've stopped posting in this thread and stopped posting in generally lately is because we basically have 10 pages of the same thing over and over. "Shapiro is an idiot. Fire him. He doesn't know what he's doing. CA is an idiot. Fire him. He doesn't know what he's doing. They're in over their heads. They've done everything wrong."

What I'd do to have the old message board back... and as much as I hate saying this, I'd almost take Dennis Nosco back over this. And that's REALLY saying something.

Hey Andrew,

Would you prefer us to talk about how if the Indians signed Mike Napoli this off-season and how that'd propel the Indians to an AL Central Division Title next year? Would you prefer us penciling in Tony Wolters as this teams 2b in 2014 and expecting him to be Dustin Pedroia for years to come? Maybe you'd instead prefer to discuss how awesome this rotation will be with Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff and Corey Kluber??

It you prefer to live in fantasy land, fine.

"Insanity" is often defined as doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results. I fear that 5 more years of the current administration implementing the same policies will land us where we are now in 2017. If that sounds irrational and misguided, by all means please re-educate me.

Personally, I'd be thrilled with a repeat of 2012 in 2017 if it meant somewhere in between last year and this five year future date, the Indians competed for an american league central division crown or wild card, competed in an american league division playoff series, an american league championship series and, possibly, competed in a World Series. Any one of those events, or, maybe more than one.. would be worth it..

OB.. they're not doing the same thing.. there are going to be several new players.. there is already a new manager and staff, there are kids that are coming.. It's never the same.. it's always evolving and changing.. sometimes for the better.. sometimes not so much..

It could be worse..you could be a Browns fan.. The sixth version of the 5 year plan (since 1999..do the math) with new owner and Steeler's fan Jimmy Haslam is about to be unveiled to the sell out throngs that go to watch the poorest Cleveland franchise in memory.. NO WORRIES, Haslam has it all figured out... he'd gonna put up some new bunting and get a better graphics card for the score board !! and, as stated in his presser.. do a better job of drafting (where have I heard that before?..) The fan experience is going to be amazing, not to mention this forward thinking.. Maybe the Browns should score 850 runs too !!!.

[OhioBaseball]

One of the major reasons why I've stopped posting in this thread and stopped posting in generally lately is because we basically have 10 pages of the same thing over and over. "Shapiro is an idiot. Fire him. He doesn't know what he's doing. CA is an idiot. Fire him. He doesn't know what he's doing. They're in over their heads. They've done everything wrong."

What I'd do to have the old message board back... and as much as I hate saying this, I'd almost take Dennis Nosco back over this. And that's REALLY saying something.

Hey Andrew,

Would you prefer us to talk about how if the Indians signed Mike Napoli this off-season and how that'd propel the Indians to an AL Central Division Title next year? Would you prefer us penciling in Tony Wolters as this teams 2b in 2014 and expecting him to be Dustin Pedroia for years to come? Maybe you'd instead prefer to discuss how awesome this rotation will be with Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff and Corey Kluber??

It you prefer to live in fantasy land, fine.

"Insanity" is often defined as doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results. I fear that 5 more years of the current administration implementing the same policies will land us where we are now in 2017. If that sounds irrational and misguided, by all means please re-educate me.

Personally, I'd be thrilled with a repeat of 2012 in 2017 if it meant somewhere in between last year and this five year future date, the Indians competed for an american league central division crown or wild card, competed in an american league division playoff series, an american league championship series and, possibly, competed in a World Series. Any one of those events, or, maybe more than one.. would be worth it..

OB.. they're not doing the same thing.. there are going to be several new players.. there is already a new manager and staff, there are kids that are coming.. It's never the same.. it's always evolving and changing.. sometimes for the better.. sometimes not so much..

It could be worse..you could be a Browns fan.. The sixth version of the 5 year plan (since 1999..do the math) with new owner and Steeler's fan Jimmy Haslam is about to be unveiled to the sell out throngs that go to watch the poorest Cleveland franchise in memory.. NO WORRIES, Haslam has it all figured out... he'd gonna put up some new bunting and get a better graphics card for the score board !! and, as stated in his presser.. do a better job of drafting (where have I heard that before?..) The fan experience is going to be amazing, not to mention this forward thinking.. Maybe the Browns should score 850 runs too !!!.

Unfortunately I am a Browns fan. I don't like the constant management turnover, but accepting mediocrity year after year from the same source isn't good, either.

Hiring Francona does nothing to improve the talent in the organization. Manny Acta isn't why the farm system is barren.

"There are kids coming"? The only one that believes that is the IPI site b/c every other source I look at says there aren't kids coming. There's a couple teenagers ages away from MLB, but not much else.

I'm not going to argue with you. We're on totally different pages here. The MLB team is bad, the farm system is bad, the financial resources of the team are poor. Apparently that's acceptable to you, but not to me.

[homerawayfromhome]

@ Hermie...

I disagree on both Blanton and Saunders some what. I believe Blanton would offer the innings the Tribe needs from a starter. He made $8 M the last few seasons. Blanton is actually a solid innings eater who gets a good amount of K's I think he's exactly what they need as a 3 starter. I do agree 3 yrs is pushing it on Blanton, could see a 2 yr deal with an option. That's more like the Tribe anyways.
Saunders is a soft tossing lefty, but is a good pitcher who I'd describe again as a 3 type pitcher. If I recall correctly he made $6 M last season and 2yrs would be idea with a 3rd option yr he may be a bit harder to sign bc he's from Maryland and the O's reportedly have interest in bringing him back.

[GeronimoSon]

@ Hermie...

I disagree on both Blanton and Saunders some what. I believe Blanton would offer the innings the Tribe needs from a starter. He made $8 M the last few seasons. Blanton is actually a solid innings eater who gets a good amount of K's I think he's exactly what they need as a 3 starter. I do agree 3 yrs is pushing it on Blanton, could see a 2 yr deal with an option. That's more like the Tribe anyways.
Saunders is a soft tossing lefty, but is a good pitcher who I'd describe again as a 3 type pitcher. If I recall correctly he made $6 M last season and 2yrs would be idea with a 3rd option yr he may be a bit harder to sign bc he's from Maryland and the O's reportedly have interest in bringing him back.

I'm with Hermie on this one...

Neither Blanton or Saunders make sense.. individually or as a pair.. two years.. three years.. somewhere in there with a team option.. etc.. all make no sense.. Both guys are heading to back side of their careers. Neither is a "teacher/mentor" type.. In short, they're roster fodder that would encompass nearly 20 % of the Indians projected payroll for which the Indians would get #3/#4 type starter results. Innings and starts will be made, but the upside is severely limited. If there is a consensus that the Indians drafted for those five years poorly because they acquired limited upside/talent players that were closer to ML ready. Isn't acquiring two journeyman SPs that have limited upside in the majors more of the same thing at 10 times the price?..

PASS on mediocrity.. ALWAYS..

[homerawayfromhome]

I'd love to see the Tribe hit on one of the better SP like Anibal Sanchez or Edwin Jackson but I'm just not seeing it. I don't think I'd call Blanton or Saunders mediocre they are average 3 types IMO. But that's moot at the very best, I'm trying to temper my expectations, while being realistic and it seems no matter where I land it seems unreasonable the Tribe will land a number of the guys I've suggested.

Remember, I've thrown out a various number of guys and I just can't see the Tribe landing them unless they overpay. I'm not suggesting that with these guys (Blanton / Saunders) rather I was looking at their potential mkt as FA.

If I could choose who the Tribe lands here's a few FA I want to see them get... (no particular order).
1. Anibal Sanchez -RHSP Sanchez would be a 2 with the Tribe. It probably takes about $12 mil per yr over 4/5 yrs to land him.
2. Mike Napoli -1b/C Napoli would be my everyday 1b and add the RH bat the Tribe needs.
3. Angel Pagan - CF I doubt he gets away from SF, but he'd be a great sign for the Tribe...Brantley moves to LF.
4. Edwin Jackson -RHSP Jackson is close to Sanchez IMO and would be a number 2 for the Tribe.
5. Francisco Liriano -LHSP Liriano would be a bit of a risk but is a power Lefty, even more they need LHSP.
6. BJ Upton -CF I think Upton would be a cheaper option in comparison to Bourn.
7. Shaun Marcum -RHSP another good arm who I think becomes a 2 for the Tribe if signed.

I'd love to see the Tribe land 1/2 of these guys and a few more pieces to build around, but I think they end up signing a 2/3 of the avg type instead.

[GeronimoSon]

I'd love to see the Tribe hit on one of the better SP like Anibal Sanchez or Edwin Jackson but I'm just not seeing it. I don't think I'd call Blanton or Saunders mediocre they are average 3 types IMO. But that's moot at the very best, I'm trying to temper my expectations, while being realistic and it seems no matter where I land it seems unreasonable the Tribe will land a number of the guys I've suggested.

Remember, I've thrown out a various number of guys and I just can't see the Tribe landing them unless they overpay. I'm not suggesting that with these guys (Blanton / Saunders) rather I was looking at their potential mkt as FA.

If I could choose who the Tribe lands here's a few FA I want to see them get... (no particular order).
1. Anibal Sanchez -RHSP Sanchez would be a 2 with the Tribe. It probably takes about $12 mil per yr over 4/5 yrs to land him.
2. Mike Napoli -1b/C Napoli would be my everyday 1b and add the RH bat the Tribe needs.
3. Angel Pagan - CF I doubt he gets away from SF, but he'd be a great sign for the Tribe...Brantley moves to LF.
4. Edwin Jackson -RHSP Jackson is close to Sanchez IMO and would be a number 2 for the Tribe.
5. Francisco Liriano -LHSP Liriano would be a bit of a risk but is a power Lefty, even more they need LHSP.
6. BJ Upton -CF I think Upton would be a cheaper option in comparison to Bourn.
7. Shaun Marcum -RHSP another good arm who I think becomes a 2 for the Tribe if signed.

I'd love to see the Tribe land 1/2 of these guys and a few more pieces to build around, but I think they end up signing a 2/3 of the avg type instead.

Good listing of FA's.. Anyone one of 1 through 3 would be valued contributors to the Indians effort in 2013 and beyond, if a contract can be made. The dollar value for Anibal @ 12 MM/yr. seems right. The Indians most likely will not go more than three years plus a club option and who could blame them after the Jake Westbrook failure.

BTW...If the "Joes" were added to this list.. they'd be at #'s 8 & 9, in any order...

[ironmike]

Outside of taking on huge contracts which the Indians won't do -- here are few offensive players that should be on the Chris Anonetti's radar with ML expeirence outside of the super stars that could help the Indians. The right combination of three of the twelve players listed below would generate a huge shot in the arm for the Indians offense even with trading Choo or Caberara in the deals.

1. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay, would take a major deal to get him. He would become our best offensive player.

2. Martin Prado, Atlanta, solid player, gets on base, scores runs, plays aggressively. Impact would be immediate.

3. Noricki Aoki, Milwaukee, a well kept secret, would be one of our better all around players. Lots of intangibles.

4. Coco Crisp, Oakland, an upgrade, not a long-term fix but this guy still can run the bases and has a great BB-K ratio.

5. Daniel Nava, Boston, could break out with a team like the Indians with 450 or more at bats.

6. Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles Angels, great BB-K ratio, a player who seems destined to get better.

7. John Jaso, Seattle, would make a great back up catcher and has real good on base skills as a hitter.

8. David Murphy, Texas, possibly could be set to break out if he wasn't a platoon player, worth a chance.

9. Melky Cabrera, SF, as bad off as we are, if affordable, he's better than any OF we currently have.

10. Jerry Hariston, SD, would make a productive utility infielder, good offensive skills.

11. Yasamani Grandal, SD, intriguing player in many ways.

12. David DeJesus, Cubs, better offensive skills than Choo, much better BB-K ratio than Choo, a gamer.


Second level: Utility and platoon candidates

Placido Polanco, Domonic Brown, Juan Pierre

[GoTribe028]

Outside of taking on huge contracts which the Indians won't do -- here are few offensive players that should be on the Chris Anonetti's radar with ML expeirence outside of the super stars that could help the Indians. The right combination of three of the twelve players listed below would generate a huge shot in the arm for the Indians offense even with trading Choo or Caberara in the deals.

1. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay, would take a major deal to get him. He would become our best offensive player.

2. Martin Prado, Atlanta, solid player, gets on base, scores runs, plays aggressively. Impact would be immediate.

3. Noricki Aoki, Milwaukee, a well kept secret, would be one of our better all around players. Lots of intangibles.

4. Coco Crisp, Oakland, an upgrade, not a long-term fix but this guy still can run the bases and has a great BB-K ratio.

5. Daniel Nava, Boston, could break out with a team like the Indians with 450 or more at bats.

6. Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles Angels, great BB-K ratio, a player who seems destined to get better.

7. John Jaso, Seattle, would make a great back up catcher and has real good on base skills as a hitter.

8. David Murphy, Texas, possibly could be set to break out if he wasn't a platoon player, worth a chance.

9. Melky Cabrera, SF, as bad off as we are, if affordable, he's better than any OF we currently have.

10. Jerry Hariston, SD, would make a productive utility infielder, good offensive skills.

11. Yasamani Grandal, SD, intriguing player in many ways.

12. David DeJesus, Cubs, better offensive skills than Choo, much better BB-K ratio than Choo, a gamer.


Second level: Utility and platoon candidates

Placido Polanco, Domonic Brown, Juan Pierre

DeJesus is a nice solid player, but he is not better than Choo offensively. Choo is a much better base runner, has more power. Choo's also been better against lefties in recent years than DeJesus.

[GeronimoSon]

If I read Rusty Mike's note/posting correctly, the listing of these twelve players are who the Indians would receive in return for Asdrubal and Choo.. While it isn't stated, I'll assume these "3 of 12" are the "veteran/ML" returnees with the trade(s) which will include at least one MiLB'er, preferably a starting pitcher that is near MLB ready or projects to being MLB ready inside of three years..

Is this a fair assessment?...

Of the players listed, Zobrist and Prado aren't going anywhere.. The Rays and Braves LOVE these guys for their versatility and performance. It would require a huge over pay to acquire either or both of them.. so, for the purpose of this posting, they'll be omitted.

Melky Cabrera is what could be referred as a "Risk / Reward" kind of player, a FA. He'd cost nothing by cash and would bring baggage that the Indians have been averse to in the past. Imho.. take on the risk and baggage. Good players that have veteran leadership in the Manager find ways to contribute..especially one looking to rehabilitate his image..

Everybody else on the list, is fair game...

There seems to be a couple of groupings with this list of the remaining 9, The first six to consider:

The first list is the 2013 walk year or becoming a FA in 2014 with or without picking up that players option. This group consists of Callaspo, DeJesus, Murphy, Coco, Aoki, Hairston (who plays for the Dodgers). Only Murphy had what might be considered a "break out" or career type year for the Rangers in 2012. Most of these guys are what might be considered "journeymen" genre.

Note: Murphy's ML career year included the total number of at bats and was used against RHP's nearly five times as many AB's as LHP's. He did, however, hit very well against LHP's.

None of the other five players on this list excite or give any reason to believe they couldn't potentially end up as the next Casey Kotchman or Johnny Damon or, most likely, Jose Lopez. Mediocre is what may define these guys.. Aoki is the only one that may have some upside, but, not exactly what you'd want as a veteran brought in to play. Make no mistake in this posting.. I'm not saying these six WILL be the next Kotchman or Lopez.. it's more likely they will be than not Pass on mediocrity..

That leaves three names.. John Jaso, Daniel Nava and Yasmani Grandal...Any one of these three or all three would work for the Indians. They're young and under team control. They have at least a chance to become solid to spectacular contributors to the Indians in 2013 and beyond. The teams they current play for have at least one and possibly three prospects that would be more than suitable for the Indians in their quest for a FOR SP prospect with high upside.. examples of trades that might just work:

Block Buster with the Red Sox: The Four Killer B's (Bogaerts, Barnes, Bradley & Brentz) & Daniel Nava for Choo & Droobs

Three way deal with San Diego/ St. Louis/Cleveland
San Diego gets: Francisco Lindor, Lou Marson and Michael Wacha
Saint Louis gets: Asdrubal Cabrera & Brad Boxberger
Cleveland gets: Matt Adams, Oscar Taveras & Yasmani Grandal

M's Deal: Shin-soo Choo and Scott Barnes for and James Paxton and John Jaso

The likelihood of these trades happening.. about the same as anyone of the twelve named players winning an individual league award....almost none.. remember, they're 'examples'..

[artgold]

I think we need to be careful about signing free agents, reading about guys in this thread such as Blanton, Murphy, Guthrie and Cabrera, I'm not sure that they are really better than what we have today.

I'm sitting out here in NorCal now and able to pretty closely see how the A's and Giants operate. If you look at the Giants, they have some outfielders who nobody would have campioned getting the last offseason, such as Gregor Blanco, who are making a significant contribution. Likewise, they have a 1st baseman with very inconsistent power and performance, yet they win with him. Angel Pagan has been a steady performer for them all season, and he was a pretty pedestrian pickup this offseason. Marco Scutaro has in many ways carried the team the past couple of months, and he generally is considered an average (but aging) middle infielder. Other than Buster Posey, and sometimes Panda Sandoval, they don't really have plus players on the field.

So you "know" it has to be the pitching. But ace Lincecum has now had back to back disappointing seasons, and highly regarded Jonathan Sanchez, a mainstay on the 2010 championship staff, ended up being a bust and dealt for a partial season of Melky Cabrera (who is absolutely despised now in the SF area). Barry Zito is an in and out starter, and massively overpaid. Even this season where he is getting some good publicity again, he has only had a good few months all season, getting hit pretty hard especially from late July through early September (they talked about taking him out of the rotation for awhile there). Matt Cain and Ryan Bumgarner are horses, and among the best starters in all of baseball, but their other top starter, Ryan Vogelsong, was picked off a scrap heap at the start of 2011 and could have been signed for free by any organization.

So basically, the Giants are built around about 7 or 8 players if you include the bullpen, and everyone else is pretty much a hit or miss.

So I think the Indians should retain Ubaldo, Masterson and maybe even Hernandez (at a discount), and see if Kluber, Barnes or McAllister can develop into the Indians version of Vogelsong. I'm not worried about too many starters, just jam up the rotation and see who performs.

And stop getting guys like Slowey, Lowe and Wheeler.

Just find the pitching from within our system.

[BrianM]

Thanks for the info Art. Teams have proven every year that you can win with an average lineup, but you will never see a team with an average lineup competing in the playoffs if they don't have aces to anchor their pitching staff (the A's may be an exception this year, though their lineup may be better than it appears if you factor in the success of their platoons). The Giants have had Lincecum-Cain, Cain-Bumgarner, the Rays had Price-Shields, and the A's had Zito-Mulder-Hudson during their great runs 8-10 years ago, and were able to develop or acquire guys like Haren-Gio-Cahill (im sure im missing a couple more) after. We were winning early in the year with our lineup, and our pitching was only solid. If we had two ace caliber pitchers, of course we could compete. Priority number one needs to be finding and developing guys who can potentially be #1 or 2 starters. We can get as creative as we want, but everything seems to fall short when I try unless it involves finding a guy who can anchor our staff. I'm all for dismantling this team, but only if we acquire talent like Archie Bradley, Tyler Skaggs, Jamison Taillon, Gerritt Cole...those type pitching prospects. After that, filling the holes should be far less complicated.

[timdav]

Now that the World Series is over....not to overstate the obvious but: the Tribe organization's off-season has begun...and the clock is really ticking.

I wish the FO and organization the best of luck in successfully beginning to fix their many holes. They have a really challenging job to begin to do.

[GeronimoSon]

Fix what?...

Looking closer at the Giants and how they were constructed.. you have to come to the conclusion that Santa Sabean did have his sleigh stop by the "Island of Misfit Players" to fill in some of the spots.. Art's comment about picking guys off the scrap heap reign true.. The Giants have a 2012 payroll of over $ 131 MM, 10 % of which is being paid to Aaron Rowand, Can you believe that???? Another $ 32 MM of the Giants payroll is being paid to what should be called "non-contributors" (Aubrey Huff, Brian Wilson, 1/2 of Melky and Freddie, etc.). In effect, a solid "third" of the Giants payroll contributed not much..

The one place the Giants did spend and spend wisely was with their pitching staff.. Zito and Cain both started and played extremely well in the post season.. TIm Lincecum showed the heart of a true champion and acquiesced to a bullpen role where he was outstanding. Ryan Vogelsong was solid throughout the regular as well as post season. Only Madison Bumgarner had what might be considered a statistically poor post season, however, came UP HUGE in his game two start in the World Series (a widely questioned decision by Bruce Bochy that truly illustrated what a good manager means to a team). Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo Javier Lopez and Santiago Cassilla, the four mainstays in the Giants bullpen pitched over 30 innings in the post season and gave up two earned runs (three total runs) Romo showed that a smallish stature has little to do with the size of his heart..

The Indians are either light years away from having the kind top of the rotation and bullpen the Giants have..or are on the verge of turning the corner with the talented arms already on the staff.. Baseball is such a fickle game.. when a team loses.. it's because of every reason known.. yet, when you get past the ego driven dislike for Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti, you realize that the statement: The Indians have been in first place in the American League Central Division longer over the past two years than any other team.. you begin to wonder.. If these guys are soooo friggan bad.. why aren't they in the basement all the time?..

BTW.. The Tigers, you know, the American League representative in the World Series, the team that proved to be the best the AL could offer.. did how well against the Sons of Geronimo in face to face meetings during the course of the year?... hmmm?

[homerawayfromhome]

Geronimo Son,

It seems you implied --the Tribe is actually better then we think. If that's the case I agree. There's a lot to like on this club, yes they need some pitching and several hitters but with about 2/3 solid adds I could see this team winning close to 80 games. A lot will depend on the coaching staff (pitching coach) Francona is able to assemble but I have confidence that he can get the right ppl in place. This offseason is pivotal to the Tribe, several posters have hit on it.

We all know that they have a limited budget and are likely to move a few pieces and could in fact be a bit younger next season by default. It's simple to me, the Tribe doesn't have to be perfect this offseason but they also have to get it right. They need to add a cpl anchors for this team but can't afford the stars to carry the team. I think they should focus on adding at least 1 anchor on either side of the ball this offseason and then add in complimentary parts to the team.

Here's the idea acq. anchor piece through trade or FA. One primary piece and other avg to solid contributors to fill other holes. Here's an example:

Sign Edwin Jackson 4 yrs $45 mil
Sign Angel Pagan 3 yrs $24 mil
Sign Jonny Gomes 2 yrs $6

[Hermie13]

I think we need to be careful about signing free agents, reading about guys in this thread such as Blanton, Murphy, Guthrie and Cabrera, I'm not sure that they are really better than what we have today.

I'm sitting out here in NorCal now and able to pretty closely see how the A's and Giants operate. If you look at the Giants, they have some outfielders who nobody would have campioned getting the last offseason, such as Gregor Blanco, who are making a significant contribution. Likewise, they have a 1st baseman with very inconsistent power and performance, yet they win with him. Angel Pagan has been a steady performer for them all season, and he was a pretty pedestrian pickup this offseason. Marco Scutaro has in many ways carried the team the past couple of months, and he generally is considered an average (but aging) middle infielder. Other than Buster Posey, and sometimes Panda Sandoval, they don't really have plus players on the field.

So you "know" it has to be the pitching. But ace Lincecum has now had back to back disappointing seasons, and highly regarded Jonathan Sanchez, a mainstay on the 2010 championship staff, ended up being a bust and dealt for a partial season of Melky Cabrera (who is absolutely despised now in the SF area). Barry Zito is an in and out starter, and massively overpaid. Even this season where he is getting some good publicity again, he has only had a good few months all season, getting hit pretty hard especially from late July through early September (they talked about taking him out of the rotation for awhile there). Matt Cain and Ryan Bumgarner are horses, and among the best starters in all of baseball, but their other top starter, Ryan Vogelsong, was picked off a scrap heap at the start of 2011 and could have been signed for free by any organization.

So basically, the Giants are built around about 7 or 8 players if you include the bullpen, and everyone else is pretty much a hit or miss.

So I think the Indians should retain Ubaldo, Masterson and maybe even Hernandez (at a discount), and see if Kluber, Barnes or McAllister can develop into the Indians version of Vogelsong. I'm not worried about too many starters, just jam up the rotation and see who performs.

And stop getting guys like Slowey, Lowe and Wheeler.

Just find the pitching from within our system.

As you said, Vogelsong was picked up off the scrapheap by the Giants...at the age of 33. He is more like a Slowey or Wheeler type of add IMO than a Kluber, Barnes, or McAllister type of internal addition. The Rangers were in the previous 2 World Series with Colby Lewis who was similar to Vogelsong in that he was a journeyman who finally broke out. If we're going by recent success, you need a nice combination of internal talent and external. Don't want the Tribe to go crazy in free agency but think it'd be wise to look at adding a starter there if you can't swing a trade.

Agree on the Giants offense though is the NL so a bit harder to compare, plus they did go out and make a big deal for Hunter Pence....just struggled. That park makes it hard for most to produce offensively (unless they are juiced up).

Don't disagree that you need to build your pitching from within, but the Tribe really lacks good arms in the rotation so IMO need to look outside the organization for some help. No issue giving McAllister and eventually Kluber some shots though in 2013, and hopefully Carrasco can come back...real wild card there.

I am not worried about too many starters either...very worried about not enough Major League caliber ones though...

[Rocky55]

Pluto mentioned that AZ might be inclined to keep Justin Upton & is willing to move Kubel who has 1yr/$7.5 million left on his contract. If we were competing next year, maybe include hin in an Asdrubal to AZ deal. He's relatively cheap, in his prime, should be good for a .270 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI, .800 OPS line. The K's took a big jump last year but the HR's did also, so maybe the approach changed. Maybe I'd settle for Skaggs & Kubel for Cabrera. Really don't want to pay Upton's nearly $29 million owed for the '14 & '15 seasons anyway. I'm surprised that AZ would.

Homer, you sure like Pagan, don't you? Do you think the Giants might try to re-sign him? Watched the Series & kept thinking that that's the type of player I expect Naquin to mature into eventually. Not much for a mid 1st Round pick. Makes you more convinced that we're going to be sorry to have passed on Gioloto. Also, watching the Series reinforces the idea/certainty that if you want to win anything, you have to have the pitching. Watching Affeldt & Romo mow down the fat guys was a real treat.