2012 Draft Prospects

[Hermie13]

According to reports Naquin signed for $1.75M. Would be $500K under slot.

And according to reports Brown signed for $800K. Would be $160.3K over slot.

[Tondo]

Well played....

The Indians parlayed their 15th and 79th overall and 2.89mil of their budget into one player that was ranked 19th and 25th by PG/BA and another that was ranked 44th/59th and paid 2.55mil...Naquin's AVG ranking is 22 and Brown's 51/52....adding those = 73.5....15th pick + 79th = 94

What I'm trying to say with this weird math is that we got good value from those top 2 picks as is....saving 340k of budget doing so is excellent and will probably enable us to sign even more value spreading our savings on Lovegrove, McCLure, Baker and Schubert...according to BA we're 750k under budget as we apparently got Wendle, Lee and Martin on the super cheap (no leverage as Seniors)...and who knows...if Antonetti still manages to save some budget after signing those, maybe they could also get another higher ranked spec signed...I'm thinking 1 of Calica, Cox, Fant

Overall we got really good value with pur top 5 picks without completely tanking our Senior budget saving picks as I like both Lee and Martin and Wendle doesn't seem as bad a pick as Bartolone

[daingean]

I'm not real sure if this means anything but Josh Schubert-McAdams is not on the East Cobb Yankees roster for a recent tournament in Murfreesboro Tennessee.

[MadThinker88]

..if Antonetti still manages to save some budget after signing those, maybe they could also get another higher ranked spec signed...I'm thinking 1 of Calica, Cox, Fant

I might be in the minority but I think signing Garza would be a bigger move. To get him away from going to college will be tough but I feel the reward of signing him is well worth it.

[daingean]

Well played....

The Indians parlayed their 15th and 79th overall and 2.89mil of their budget into one player that was ranked 19th and 25th by PG/BA and another that was ranked 44th/59th and paid 2.55mil...Naquin's AVG ranking is 22 and Brown's 51/52....adding those = 73.5....15th pick + 79th = 94

What I'm trying to say with this weird math is that we got good value from those top 2 picks as is....saving 340k of budget doing so is excellent and will probably enable us to sign even more value spreading our savings on Lovegrove, McCLure, Baker and Schubert...according to BA we're 750k under budget as we apparently got Wendle, Lee and Martin on the super cheap (no leverage as Seniors)...and who knows...if Antonetti still manages to save some budget after signing those, maybe they could also get another higher ranked spec signed...I'm thinking 1 of Calica, Cox, Fant

Overall we got really good value with pur top 5 picks without completely tanking our Senior budget saving picks as I like both Lee and Martin and Wendle doesn't seem as bad a pick as Bartolone

That said, if the Tribe felt that Naquin was the best pick at 15 then that is great. I would rather have gone for the touchdown at 15 than sign 3 or 4 extra 10-15 round picks. My only issue with Naquin at #15 is the lack of power but this was a down draft so I'm okay with Naquin if they think he was the BPA available (on an upside scale). Personally, I'd rather have Naquin than Heanney (who I think is another Jeremy Sowers type pick - and Mirabelli's comments kind of indicate that Heanney was the guy prior to him being taken at 14). Anyway, an ace at #1 should beat Kings at 3,4, and 5. I have no idea if Naquin is the guy (he could be) because I'm not a scout. Personally, I'm happier with this draft than the "Huff, Wright" draft or the Sowers draft but I still think "Lindor, Howard, Sisco +" was a coup.

[homerawayfromhome]

I actually like his draft class, with the restrictions in place by the new CBA the Tribe done well... I believe that's what Tondo was getting at in his appraisal of the draft value.
That said Lindor is / was a fabulous pk by the Tribe, I had 2 guys projected there last yr Archie Bradley and Lindor. Glad to have Lindor.

[GeronimoSon]

In three to five years.. Tyler Naquin may be the starting CF'er wearing Chief Wahoo on his sleeve at the corner of Ontario and Carnegie.. But, the comp to Heanney wasn't what was 'passed'.. it was Lucas Giolito.. We'll see if having a strong armed best pure hitting gamer in CF'er in the future was a better choice than a Front of the Rotation starting pitcher of the future (a.k.a. the Ace)...

Reading between the lines, it's pretty clear from Dain's post.. Tyler Naquin wasn't who he would have selected at # 15 & it certainly wasn't Heanney...

[daingean]

Reading between the lines, it's pretty clear from Dain's post.. Tyler Naquin wasn't who he would have selected at # 15 & it certainly wasn't Heanney...

With a #15 pick, I'd preferred to have gotten a bat with power (i.e. Schaffer) unless the guy is a middle of the diamond player. The FO can talk about him potentially being a CF but he wasn't one in college so I am skeptical on him in CF.

I certainly like the Naquin pick but would have preferred someone with the power tool (either power bat or power arm). No way did I want Heanney.

[OhioBaseball]

Reading between the lines, it's pretty clear from Dain's post.. Tyler Naquin wasn't who he would have selected at # 15 & it certainly wasn't Heanney...

With a #15 pick, I'd preferred to have gotten a bat with power (i.e. Schaffer) unless the guy is a middle of the diamond player. The FO can talk about him potentially being a CF but he wasn't one in college so I am skeptical on him in CF.

I certainly like the Naquin pick but would have preferred someone with the power tool (either power bat or power arm). No way did I want Heanney.

I agree 100%. I'm sure some people have talked themselves into liking Naquin, but this was a mid first round pick and (1) if were a true major league CF'er, he likely would have played the position in college and (2) he needs to seriously develop more power, and to do that he may need to change his swing to drive the ball more and which may sacrifice a part of his ability to hit for average. Naquin was a stretch at 15 for sure (I've been following Naquin for well over a year now since his strong sophomore season -- he sucked his freshman year and nobody knew who he was on the national scene), but thats why he signed quite a bit under slot, so I can't complain too much. I think he's a fine addition to the system and believe he's a high probability major league player, but he needs to make some serious improvements in power hitting (without sacrificing much average), otherwise he's just a reserve outfielder in a David DeJesus or Sam Fuld (or Jamey Carroll in the OF with arm strength) kind of way.

With you on Heaney.

[JP_Frost]

why does he need to develop power? If he can put up a .750 OPS in CF, or maybe even .800 in RF, that's definately good enough.

He just strikes me as a poor man's Ichiro. I'm fine with that.

[daingean]

why does he need to develop power? If he can put up a .750 OPS in CF, or maybe even .800 in RF, that's definately good enough.

He just strikes me as a poor man's Ichiro. I'm fine with that.

First of all, I think he'll be a good defensive RF but he doesn't project as a good defensive CF (just my opinion). Secondly, he doesn't need to develop power to be a decent RF if he can put up a .750 or .800 OPS. My only beef is what he projects to as a #15 pick and without the power projection, he's not a #15 unless he's a middle of the diamond type player defensively (which I don't see). He's a nice piece and he's ours now. One good thing is that he signed for under slot which will help us land guys like McClure and Shubert (which is a good thing).

[Hermie13]

I think he's a fine addition to the system and believe he's a high probability major league player, but he needs to make some serious improvements in power hitting (without sacrificing much average), otherwise he's just a reserve outfielder in a David DeJesus or Sam Fuld (or Jamey Carroll in the OF with arm strength) kind of way.

David DeJesus is NOT a reserve outfielder. Was one of the best OFers in the game from 2005 to 2010 (13th best fWAR, just ahead of Nick Swisher) and arguably one of the 5 best RFers in the game. He had a miserable year in Oakland but aside from that he's been a very solid bat. Lack of power always hurt his value, but personally I don't think a .282/.356/.419.775 batting line is "reserve" outfielder material, especially when you throw in his defense (was never bad in CF either defensively).

I do agree, I'd prefer more power at 15, but if Naquin became as good as DeJesus, I would be pleased. DeJesus was always underrated because he didn't hit HRs but a very good ML OFer.

I also still disagree that Naquin can't play CF. The more I watch of him the more I think he can make the move back to CF. Doesn't sound like he was moved to RF at A&M because of his lack of range, but because of his arm. Though we shall see. Very interested in seeing him play this year to see how he looks out there (watching live is so different than vid).

[daingean]

I also still disagree that Naquin can't play CF. The more I watch of him the more I think he can make the move back to CF. Doesn't sound like he was moved to RF at A&M because of his lack of range, but because of his arm. Though we shall see. Very interested in seeing him play this year to see how he looks out there (watching live is so different than vid).

I think Naquin can play CF but he will have to prove to me that he's a GG caliber CF to justify being the #15 pick (with his lack of power). Now, I will concede that this was a weak draft and that's a factor. At this point, I'm okay with the pick but would have liked more power at #15 (that's my only complaint).

[OhioBaseball]

I'm not going to discuss the merits of David DeJesus. I was at a Cubs game last night, he was fresh on my mind and I was basing it off the type of player he is now. I'd be thrilled if Naquin developed the kind of power that DeJesus had in his prime (10 to 15 HR power would be a big success in the case of Naquin). It's hard finding a comp for Naquin; I think Ichiro Suzuki is very optimistic, but there are some similarities.

Naquin is pretty much a slap hitter right now, and he doesn't have a projectable body frame to grow into. I do think he's going to add muscle, but it won't be much (body frame limitations).

I echo just what daingean has said. I'm glad to have Naquin in the organization. Not an overall impact kind of talent, but he signed at a discount to free up money for some other guys, so pressure is on the Indians to sign and (very importantly) develop their later round picks.

[JP_Frost]

why does he need to develop power? If he can put up a .750 OPS in CF, or maybe even .800 in RF, that's definately good enough.

He just strikes me as a poor man's Ichiro. I'm fine with that.

First of all, I think he'll be a good defensive RF but he doesn't project as a good defensive CF (just my opinion). Secondly, he doesn't need to develop power to be a decent RF if he can put up a .750 or .800 OPS. My only beef is what he projects to as a #15 pick and without the power projection, he's not a #15 unless he's a middle of the diamond type player defensively (which I don't see). He's a nice piece and he's ours now. One good thing is that he signed for under slot which will help us land guys like McClure and Shubert (which is a good thing).

If he plays a solid CF (let's say average) and hits like he projects to, that's a damn fine player. Definately worthy of a mid first round selection. It seems like some of you expect to draft future MVP's and Cy Young's in the first round. I'll settle for a good everyday player. It might be different if you draft within the top 5, but at 15 you pretty much take whoever you feel has the best chance to be an above-average major leaguer. I think Naquin has that potential.

We've been bitching about the offense and we drafted a guy that by all accounts can hit very well. It fits a need and it enabled the Indians to go for higher ceiling talent in later rounds. What's not to like? Okay, he's not our new 40HR first baseman or left fielder, but those guys weren't available in this class and certainly not at 15 (Roache is the closest thing, but there are serious concerns there as well).

[A.Zajac]

Whether Naquin can stick in CF or not remains to be seen because he's yet to play a professional inning.. but offensively, I think in his prime he can hit .300-.320, 5 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB.. He has the cannon for an arm, I will say that.

[Tondo]

I probably missed the news on him but where is 2011 draft spec SS Yhoxian Medina? He has reportedly signed but where is he? According to Tony's depth chart he isn't in EST either

[Rocky55]

I can reasonably see Naquin in his prime going .800+ OPS via .370+/.430+ with 10-15HR & 40-50 doubles. I believe that given his claimed durability that he could be counted on for 180+ hits per year, which would be refreshing compared to the "K's aren't that bad" mentality the org seems to support. There are so many ways in which a player can impact a game besides just hitting HR's.

His swing MAY need to be tweaked, although I'm not convinced of that. He may make adjustments on his own, as players are constantly adjusting. I see no bar to him being as good a CF as Brantley as a floor.

As far as whether he was worthy of being the 15th pick, who knows? I'd seen him mocked as high as 17th & ranked as high as 19. I remember my WTF reaction to the Kipnis at 15 rumor a couple of yrs. ago. My reaction to a Kipnis at 15 now would be: Yes Please!

I haven't read Brad Grant's take on Naquin but that's the one I'd put the most credence in. If he puts out the idea that Naquin was the best option given the constraints of the new CBA(Dammit) then I'm good with it. Lots of guys I'd have preferred at 15 but I bow to Grant's judgement.

[Hermie13]

I also still disagree that Naquin can't play CF. The more I watch of him the more I think he can make the move back to CF. Doesn't sound like he was moved to RF at A&M because of his lack of range, but because of his arm. Though we shall see. Very interested in seeing him play this year to see how he looks out there (watching live is so different than vid).

I think Naquin can play CF but he will have to prove to me that he's a GG caliber CF to justify being the #15 pick (with his lack of power). Now, I will concede that this was a weak draft and that's a factor. At this point, I'm okay with the pick but would have liked more power at #15 (that's my only complaint).

Personally disagree that he would have to be a GG caliber CF to justify the 15th pick. If he can just be average there defensively he will justify the pick IMO provided he hits and gets on base. I totally agree with your last statement, and it seems like that's the majority feeling on the pick too.

[JP_Frost]

So the Tribe signed both Lovegrove and Baker to underslot deals? That's great news!

Now let's get the rest of the top 10 signed, and add Vick and Garza to the mix. This could be a very good haul. Lovegrove's projectability is insane. Very raw though, but with the proper coaching he could be something special.

[homerawayfromhome]

To be completely honest I'm very surprised with the amount of talent the Tribe stands to add to the system after this draft. It seems the Tribe staff played this draft masterfully. It should be noted that this draft lacked tremendous depth, but by going under slot value on the first pk the Tribe has been able to amass some talent after round 1, with potential for more.

I fully understand that there were some talented players there when the Tribe drafted, but truthfully if you look at the players grades across the board Naquin was perceived in the same talent bracket. The lone exception to that may have been Lucas Giolito but both his signability and health remain in question. I'm not advocating Naquin was the best player available because truth be told was not. Naquin is / was a near value in comparison to others on the draft board, was signable and projects as a center of the diamond player.

I believe we will see the Tribe heavily pursue several of these modern summer "draft and follow players" such as Justin Garza, Andrew Calica, Logan Vick, Nelson Rodriguez, and Cameron Cox. As of now the Tribe looks like it will have extra money from the $4.5-$4.8 M bonus pool to spend, but Dvone McClure, Josh Schubert and Caleb Hamrick remain unsigned as of right now, and these are considered potential hard signs. Nonetheless the Tribe will have some cash to offer unless these two completely tap out the savings which is unlikely.

Overall, I believe the new CBA hasn't really changed the draft in the sense that big money teams will spend. We have seen that in the overslot deals that some of these clubs have paid out, but it did push back some talented players as some teams sought to hit it big with a cpl prospects while others like the Tribe played it safe and took a large volume of talent after rd 1. However, I expect some of these other clubs may be penalized which may change their way of thinking in the draft.

Personally, I thought the Tribe came out quite well in the sheer volume of players drafted with high upside. It was better than expected by most including myself and could get better with a few late signings. I look forward to what the summer holds.

[Tondo]

I suspected Lovegrove to go around slot, but Baker UNDER slot is a surprise, but I'll take it.

I think we'll have to spend most of the savings on the remaining Top 10 picks

McClure was ranked as a borderline Top 100 guy and is a HS spec and was picked 143rd, so his 315k slot won't be enough. I guess 500k should get it done though...600k max

Schubert was picked 233rd and was ranked in the 150-250 range, being a HS spec his 145k slot won't get it done. He was ranked close to Lovegrove, who signed for 400k, so that should be his max, but I think 300-350k will be enough.

By my math that'd leave around 400-450k of the budget. Hamrick's slot is 136k...at this point I'd be "ok" to lose him and his budget if he asks for too much, since we have an "extra" 100k to give to 11th + rounders before the budget kicks in with those...that means if we "lose" Hamrick or even Schubert...all we would lose on effective budget would be 45k and 36k respectively

We'll look to get McClure signed next and then open the "budget competition" among Schubert, Hamrick and their later round handcuffs Garza, Calica and Cox...I expect 1 OF and 1 RHP out of this group. Should we still have something left we might go slightly over the 100k max for some of those lesser known HS specs or some College JRs like Vick, Sever and Fant

I liked how we worked the draft under the budget constraint and think we got a good mix of quality and quantity

[homerawayfromhome]

Lovegrove reportedly signed for 400k, while it is rumored that Baker settled under slot at 200k as well. Wow! If that's the case didn't think wed get Baker for less than 400-500k. If it comes down to signing Garza or Hamrick I'd take Garza, but the Tribe will prioritize getting those top 10 done. I believe we will see the Tribe snag a few more outside of the top 10 rds like Logan Vick, and Nelson Rodriguez. Overall I'd expect to see about 22/23 signings.

[daingean]

I'm not real sure if this means anything but Josh Schubert-McAdams is not on the East Cobb Yankees roster for a recent tournament in Murfreesboro Tennessee.

Per Tony's draft update, Josh apparently has signed. I have been checking the East Cobb Yankees games and roster on http://www.gamechanger.io/ and Josh disappeared from the team last week. Sometimes guys disappear from 18U teams for a number of reasons (school things, camps, pro signings....) but he never returned. I was hoping to check Josh out at a ECB Yankees game but missed my opportunity. Welcome aboard Josh.

Yes I did quote my own post

[JP_Frost]

Good news.

I really want McClure though.

[homerawayfromhome]

Josh Schubert (McAdams) is officially signed, posted on the Tribes official site. No news on money.
Also Dylan Baker has officially signed.

McClure signed a letter of intent for Arkansas with the stipulation he only plays baseball.
He could be a harder sign than I had thought. I'd absolutely hate to miss on him, I hope this is one of those moves where the Tribe ponies up and gets it done. I'd be willing to go 750k to get him here. I'm not suggesting the Tribe is cheap, McClure is a must sign IMO.

[daingean]

Josh Schubert (McAdams) is officially signed, posted on the Tribes official site. No news on money.
Also Dylan Baker has officially signed.

McClure signed a letter of intent for Arkansas with the stipulation he only plays baseball.
He could be a harder sign than I had thought. I'd absolutely hate to miss on him, I hope this is one of those moves where the Tribe ponies up and gets it done. I'd be willing to go 750k to get him here.

With baseball schollies being only partial, I'd think we can get the $$$ right with McClure. He knows that if he signs he'll have a priority placement for the next few years (hopefully longer). Because of this, I think the baseball only stipulation may actually be to our favor.

[jellis]

schubert cost 250, so 104K over slot not bad for a guy with his tools

[homerawayfromhome]

Thanks @ jellis... Exactly what I had expected.

[dazindiansfanuk]

On the subject of Naquin, I asked Keith Law if his power/ability to stay in CF would justify the #15 pick and he replied with: -

"I think he can handle CF, but that swing won't produce any pop."

[JP_Frost]

So what if he hits 3 HR's a year. If he can play CF, and show he's got a plus hit tool, we've got a good regular at a premium position. I don't care where you pick in the first round, that's a damn fine outcome.

I was a bit down on the pick at first as well, but that mostly came from not knowing much about him. After reading up and watching some video, I think he's a solid choice and the underslot bonus makes it even better.

[Rocky55]

Naquin was 3-4 with a double & a SB in his debut. Promote him to the Tribe already. Also Joe Wendle was 2-4 with a walk & a RBI. Wendle's 2nd game.

Nice to see the Draftees hit the ground running.

[OhioBaseball]

I can reasonably see Naquin in his prime going .800+ OPS via .370+/.430+ with 10-15HR & 40-50 doubles.

Sorry, but I think 10-15 HR with all those doubles is quite unrealistic. Naquin would have been a consensus top 10 overall player if scouts actually believed he could do that.

[Hermie13]

I can reasonably see Naquin in his prime going .800+ OPS via .370+/.430+ with 10-15HR & 40-50 doubles.

Sorry, but I think 10-15 HR with all those doubles is quite unrealistic. Naquin would have been a consensus top 10 overall player if scouts actually believed he could do that.

Rocky is probably a tad optimistic but those numbers are only slightly better than what Cabrera put up in 2009 (6 HRs and over 40 doubles in only 131 games). Choo is on pace for over 50 doubles and around 14-15 HRs. Disagree that 10-15 HRs, 40-50 dooubles and an .800 OPS would have made Naquin a consensus top 10 pick, even in this weak draft. Not many OFers other than speedsters would be consensus top 10s if scouts didn't see them being 20+ HR guys.

I do think 8-10 HRs is probably more realistic for Naquin though, but as we've seen with Asdrubal, you just never know on power (don't recall any scouts ever saying he'd be a 20-25 HR guy).

[OhioBaseball]

I can reasonably see Naquin in his prime going .800+ OPS via .370+/.430+ with 10-15HR & 40-50 doubles.

Sorry, but I think 10-15 HR with all those doubles is quite unrealistic. Naquin would have been a consensus top 10 overall player if scouts actually believed he could do that.

Rocky is probably a tad optimistic but those numbers are only slightly better than what Cabrera put up in 2009 (6 HRs and over 40 doubles in only 131 games). Choo is on pace for over 50 doubles and around 14-15 HRs. Disagree that 10-15 HRs, 40-50 dooubles and an .800 OPS would have made Naquin a consensus top 10 pick, even in this weak draft. Not many OFers other than speedsters would be consensus top 10s if scouts didn't see them being 20+ HR guys.

I do think 8-10 HRs is probably more realistic for Naquin though, but as we've seen with Asdrubal, you just never know on power (don't recall any scouts ever saying he'd be a 20-25 HR guy).

I'd be delighted if Naquin hit 8-10 HR's in the majors. I saw him play last year quite a bit in the Super Regionals last year vs. Florida State and CWS and he was predominantly a slap hitter. Keith Law (an unbiased observer) doesn't see any power in his swing, either.

Obviously, if the Indians didn't like him, they wouldn't have taken him but I think the fact that he signed at a material discount played a key part in the decision making process.

Regarding CF, he can probably handle the position -- as dangaen said, being adequate may not be enough. There was someone better than him at the position at Texas A&M and during the summer with Team USA there was also someone better at the position than him. When you start talking about MLB, if he ran into guys better than him at CF in college, he'll *probably* run into even more guys better than him at CF in MLB thus shifting him to a position where his bat may not project as well. This is the problem and why he's considered a 'tweener prospect. I think many of you assume that there won't be someone blocking him in CF when he gets the the major leagues, such as there was his entire college career?

I like Naquin -- I think he's a neat, interesting player. Having said that, I've seen a fair amount of him and I'm surprised at all the optimistic comments on the guy. I hope he lives up to most of your expectations.

Look, I get it. We're all Indians fans here. We're all rooting for the team to prosper and its natural to be optimistic about the guy the team just took in the first round. Like every other 1st round pick the Indians have made over the last decade, you'll read glowing comments from the scouting director in the press releases about the guy. I hope Naquin does well, too, but I can't overlook his shortcomings.

[GeronimoSon]

His shortcomings are a lack of power and no projection of that power.. He does everything else well.. to very well. His only PLUS PLUS tool is his arm.

In short, he was a bargain signing that has a chance to be a decent/average ML OF'er or fourth OF'er, which is okay but not much more. Naquin didn't profile even close to the upsides of some of the players that were picked behind him in the draft.. The names of players drafted after Naquin that have as much, if not more upside include but are not limited to the Lucas' (Sims and Giolito), Lance McCullers, Richie Shaffer, Victor Roache, Joey Gallo, Lewis Brinson, and Stephen Piscotty.

Time will tell..

[criznit2009]

Naquin was a "safe" pick - pretty polished at the plate and if he sticks in CF could be a good pick. Doesnt seems much different to me when compared to Fedroff offensively speaking. If he hits 10 HR's in the majors (in his career let alone a single season) it means he is suceeding but really I dont expect this guy to ever be an impact player. Other then his arm he doesnt look on paper to have the goods - as pointed out by other posters . G-son is right though and time will tell, but really hated (and still do) this pick. It was made because he was the safest/cheapest bet to make it to the ML with the 15th pick, at least in the FO's mind. Picking him enabled the tribe to spend more money on other picks and that might be the #1 reason he was our 1st pick.

As for his power I recall some posters expecting/stating Brantley was going to hit a dozen up 20 HR's this season. He has 1 and a bunch of doubles. Thats what you should expect from Naquin. If he ever makes it to the ML's which I truly doubt.

[Magneticnorth451]

Had an interesting conversation with a buddy of mine from Texas. He told me to look up Benny Suarez and try to figure out what was interesting about him... To be honest, nothing, but he said he's friends with him and he's going to try and get him to sign with the Indians... Ha.

I'll keep you abreast of this amazing (goofy) situation.

[homerawayfromhome]

@ Geronimo Son... Disagree while each of those guys are very intriguing and many of which I liked myself, all have their own issues. Shaffer a swinger, Piscotty power to play the corner, McCullers is he a starter?, Giolito health. Most of these guys have more projectibility... Naquin is a polished OF some considered a tweener, but with good speed and instincts couple with a cannon arm he can play CF, as you stated his one lacking area is power. Naquin could add 10-15 lbs of muscle but how would that affect his game? Personally I see Naquin as a .300-.320 hitter, 5-10 hrs, and 20-25 sb and a League leader in outfield assists.

[GeronimoSon]

@ Geronimo Son... Disagree while each of those guys are very intriguing and many of which I liked myself, all have their own issues. Shaffer a swinger, Piscotty power to play the corner, McCullers is he a starter?, Giolito health. Most of these guys have more projectibility... Naquin is a polished OF some considered a tweener, but with good speed and instincts couple with a cannon arm he can play CF, as you stated his one lacking area is power. Naquin could add 10-15 lbs of muscle but how would that affect his game? Personally I see Naquin as a .300-.320 hitter, 5-10 hrs, and 20-25 sb and a League leader in outfield assists.

I'd take that right now.. in fact.. I'd take 8 more guys just like that..

[Rocky55]

I can reasonably see Naquin in his prime going .800+ OPS via .370+/.430+ with 10-15HR & 40-50 doubles.

Sorry, but I think 10-15 HR with all those doubles is quite unrealistic. Naquin would have been a consensus top 10 overall player if scouts actually believed he could do that.

Rocky is probably a tad optimistic but those numbers are only slightly better than what Cabrera put up in 2009 (6 HRs and over 40 doubles in only 131 games). Choo is on pace for over 50 doubles and around 14-15 HRs. Disagree that 10-15 HRs, 40-50 dooubles and an .800 OPS would have made Naquin a consensus top 10 pick, even in this weak draft. Not many OFers other than speedsters would be consensus top 10s if scouts didn't see them being 20+ HR guys.

I do think 8-10 HRs is probably more realistic for Naquin though, but as we've seen with Asdrubal, you just never know on power (don't recall any scouts ever saying he'd be a 20-25 HR guy).

I don't want to quibble about numbers & I'm usually overly optimistic when making predictions. I mentioned Naquin's durability since he claims to never having been injured. Based on that I was assuming at least 150 games/675AB's, I don't think that those numbers are that great of a stretch for prime years, maybe ages 27-31. I will say that I'm more confident that he can hit 50 doubles than I am that he can hit 15+ HRs. I know that I wouldn't be at all shocked at a couple or 4 200 hit seasons. Shit, Brantley's at 74 hits & 20 doubles through 42% of the season. That's on pace for 47 doubles & 176 hits.

I was surprised by the Naquin selection but I'm not displeased. Most of the criteria some people, not on this board necessarily, put on the 15th pick would have been met by Beau Mills. I really, really hated the Beau Mills pick. I liked the idea of Joey Gallo but really, who knows how many K's/year records he might set. I mean as a hitter. G mentioned Brinson but we drafted McClure who will probably have a better chance of achieving the kind of results that might be optimistically expected of Brinson.

I like guys who put the bat on the ball. Naquin will hit.

[GeronimoSon]

Any interest in Puig?... Yasel Puig's name has come onto the radar. He's another Cuban defector that may have some potential as a ML OF'er. It's said that his baseball skills are ahead of Jorge Soler's.. but not quite up to Yoenis Cespedes' level. The information on Puig came from Kevin Goldstein.. FWIW..

[homerawayfromhome]

Puig is a guy that has kind of been under the radar. Personally, I've heard and known about him, but all I've heard has been vague. I'm sure the Tribe will have ppl scouting his workouts, has Puig been declared a FA yet? I haven't seen it. Based on what I have heard Puig has tried to hurry the process, so that he may sign before the July 2nd signing date.

I'm curious to see how the Tribe will handle the international market, with the new restrictions placed on all teams. There are some loop holes. Based upon my understanding teams can sign 6 players at $50k which do not count against the $2.9M signing limit. There are numerous athletic RH bats with speed and some power coming from the Dominican none of which would help the Tribe any time soon, but could add those components to the Tribes farm system. I'm not sure how much the Tribe has spent in the past in the international market but I can confirm they spent near or above $2M last yr in signing 4 players...Paulino, Santander, Sanchez, Pineda.

[JP_Frost]

Nice article on Hamrick today Tony. If he's willing to sign for around 250K, that should leave more than enough to sign McClure right?

Do you have any info on his status?

[homerawayfromhome]

It sounds like Hamrick wants $225 k, which is less than I had believed. Hamrick asked for 5th rd slot but also offered up that he was willing to discount it so that the tribe could have a bit extra to some later pks signed too. I'd offer him $175 and than focus entirely on getting McClure to ink.

Here's the rundown on top 10 signings...

Player...Signed for...Real Value...Bonus pool status.
Tyler Naquin...$1.75 M. ($500 K under slot). +500k
Mitchell Brown...$800 K. ($160 K over slot). +340k
Keiran Lovegrove...$400 K. ($33 K under slot). +373k
D'Vone McClure...unsigned as of 6/25. (slot $315).
Dylan Baker...$200 K. ($35 K under slot). +398k
Joe Wendle...$10 K. ($166 K under slot). +564k
Josh Schubert...$250 K. ($105 over slot). +459k
Caleb Hamrick...unsigned as of 6/25. (slot $136)
Jacob Lee...$2.5K. ($124.5 underslot). +583.5k
Josh Martin...$5 K. ($120 underslot). +703.5k

As of 6/25
Caleb Hamrick (136k) and D'Vone McClure (315k) both remain unsigned.
The Tribe currently stands at $703,500 under the allotted bonus pool. The Tribe also can spend up to 4.9% of $4,582,900 or about $224,500 over the pool allotment without incurring any penalties. Basically the Tribe has $925,000 extra to spend as of 6/25.

[JP_Frost]

That should be more than enough to sign them both I'd think.

Let's say Hamrick agrees to $225K, that's about $90K overslot.

That leaves a little over $600K to play with if you go by the allotted bonus pool.

McClure should be signable at $750K right? That's well over $400K overslot.

[OhioBaseball]

It sounds like Hamrick wants $225 k, which is less than I had believed. Hamrick asked for 5th rd slot but also offered up that he was willing to discount it so that the tribe could have a bit extra to some later pks signed too. I'd offer him $175 and than focus entirely on getting McClure to ink.

Here's the rundown on top 10 signings...

Player...Signed for...Real Value...Bonus pool status.
Tyler Naquin...$1.75 M. ($500 K under slot). +500k
Mitchell Brown...$800 K. ($160 K over slot). +340k
Keiran Lovegrove...$400 K. ($33 K under slot). +373k
D'Vone McClure...unsigned as of 6/25. (slot $315).
Dylan Baker...$200 K. ($35 K under slot). +398k
Joe Wendle...$10 K. ($166 K under slot). +564k
Josh Schubert...$250 K. ($105 over slot). +459k
Caleb Hamrick...unsigned as of 6/25. (slot $136)
Jacob Lee...$2.5K. ($124.5 underslot). +583.5k
Josh Martin...$5 K. ($120 underslot). +703.5k

As of 6/25
Caleb Hamrick (136k) and D'Vone McClure (315k) both remain unsigned.
The Tribe currently stands at $703,500 under the allotted bonus pool. The Tribe also can spend up to 4.9% of $4,582,900 or about $224,500 over the pool allotment without incurring any penalties. Basically the Tribe has $925,000 extra to spend as of 6/25.

That's great work. Thank you for the analysis! Very nice.

All I know on Hamrick is that he barely made any top prospect lists, for which there is probably a good reason (why should we want to overpay for him if others don't seem to think he's much of a prospect?) I hope the money goes to McClure.

Also I can't help to think, the Indians have hardly gone over slot to sign these guys. The thing with Naquin was that he'd save money for later round guys, but the Indians haven't really gone over slot for anyone but Brown and that wasn't really that much. I don't know what McClure's price tag is, but if he only goes for $200k over slot, the Indians may have screwed up their first round pick -- they could have gone for Wacha, Stratton, Shaffer, etc. instead of saving money on Naquin that may never be invested? We'll see how things go in the next few weeks, but I hope the Indians don't leave money on the table, or spend money just to spend it (on Hamrick).

[homerawayfromhome]

I get the fact Hamrick wasn't a highly hyped prospect. The Tribe likes him obviously enough to pick in the 8 th rd. I'm not advocating spending to spend but I believe they may have to go over slot to get him. I don't have a problem going over a bit to get Hamrick but McClure must be signed first and foremost.

McClure must be the focus, I'd be willing to offer him $750 K if that's what it took or nearly whatever it takes including the excess of the bonus pool. The Tribe lacks the type impact player McClure could become, and adding him next must be top priority. Im hoping the Tribe can get him for about $500 k or less and then turn the rest into a cpl other surprising adds such as Justin Garza.

[JP_Frost]

That's great work. Thank you for the analysis! Very nice.

All I know on Hamrick is that he barely made any top prospect lists, for which there is probably a good reason (why should we want to overpay for him if others don't seem to think he's much of a prospect?) I hope the money goes to McClure.

Also I can't help to think, the Indians have hardly gone over slot to sign these guys. The thing with Naquin was that he'd save money for later round guys, but the Indians haven't really gone over slot for anyone but Brown and that wasn't really that much. I don't know what McClure's price tag is, but if he only goes for $200k over slot, the Indians may have screwed up their first round pick -- they could have gone for Wacha, Stratton, Shaffer, etc. instead of saving money on Naquin that may never be invested? We'll see how things go in the next few weeks, but I hope the Indians don't leave money on the table, or spend money just to spend it (on Hamrick).

Disagree on Hamrick. He's not Mitch Brown, but he's an exciting projectable arm. I think he's a good value pick in rounds 5-10. Maybe not worth breaking the bank over, but if he can be signed for less than $250K, I'd do it (unless it means not signing McClure).

I also disagree with your analysis of the first round pick. Like I said before, in the Tribe's mind nobody outside of Giolito seperated himself from the pack at #15, so they went with who they liked and knew was going to sign below slot. I can dig that. Plus, you assume that they knew who they'd pick on the second day. They had some kids they were targeting probably, but they couldn't possibly know who'd be available in rounds 2-10. So saving money in the first round enabled them to be more flexible in the later rounds. You can disagree with the strategy, but they picked Naquin to suit that strategy, they didn't pick him because they wanted to sign Caleb Hamrick for example.

Besides, a lot of kids that were seen as overslot picks have signed for either less money or have even taken slot money. I don't think anybody expected it to go this way. Let's not forget that this was a new system for not only the fans, but the organizations as well.

[homerawayfromhome]

I completely agree, none of the players at 15 stood out with the exception of Giolito. All of the name guys had very similar grades no one player stood out, and frankly Naquin wasn't a shocking pick to me, I actually had him as the third college position player I felt they may choose.

McClure IMO is a must sign, I'm not talking about throwing everything at him (unless necessary), but the Tribe must get him signed even if it means they exhaust a huge portion of the excess bonus pool. McClure is highly talented and would rate as a top 10-15 prospect immediately.