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Ubaldo is a mess

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Ubaldo is a mess

Postby indians1 » Tue May 01, 2012 10:43 pm

Nice to see ubaldo has been consistent since he got here. The man has no control and is at best a #3 or 4 starter. That is what we traded for that gutted our farm system. We traded an elite power lefty for a hack.

I know its early, but chicago is a division rival. How many times is ubaldo going to pitch at important times of a season and he falters. 6 BB's today. He is supposed to be our ace or at worst a #2.

The indians took a chance last year, but this trade is going to be disasterous. How can we compete for a division title when the guy we traded for to get us over the hump is a dud.

And it isn't going to get better because manny acta doesn't see the point in looking at ubaldo's delivery because "they are not going to pretend they are smarter than the rockies". what crap is that. The guy is walking 3-5 guys /outing and that has been the norm since he got here.

We now have nothing in our farm system to help the major league team. The indian's drafts of overpaying for draft picks have not paid off. We overpaid for guys in later rounds like tim fedroff, trey haley, bryce stowell, tj house, alex lavisky, lavon washington, and countless others and we have nothing to show.

I give the indians credit for trying to be aggressive with the draft and trades, but you have to be right on some of these moves.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Tue May 01, 2012 11:00 pm

Missed popup on the infield and booted grounder by AC sure didn't help tonight...
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ScrappyWahoo » Tue May 01, 2012 11:32 pm

Shouldnt that so called elite power lefty have a good start before he's elite? He looks like a scrub so far in his career
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby GhostofTedCox » Wed May 02, 2012 8:03 am

It's coming very close to the time to take action. The trade is history. We have to deal with the results. We need consistent starts.

If he can't figure it out in 2 more starts, I would drop him to #5. At this point I have much more confidence in Gomez than Ubaldo.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby daingean » Wed May 02, 2012 8:04 am

the problem is Ubaldo was a mess before we traded White and Pom.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed May 02, 2012 8:32 am

Hmmm... were you guys watching the same Ubaldo that has been getting torched in just about every outing this year?..

To start.. Drew Pomeranz and Alex White are gone.. sent off.. no longer here.. pfffft.. discussing that which was is like trying to put the toothpaste back into the tube..it's a worthless endeavor...get over it..

What about Ubaldo's performance worked and didn't work from his previous starts?..

-What didn't work: Primarily command of his fastball, he was all over the place, especially to RH hitters. When he took some off, Pierzynski and Beckham hammered it.. His split?.. off the plate or bouncing in the dirt the all night.. His slider..late release point off the plate or hanging.. Nothing was working during this outing.. Okay..it happens.. and will continue to happen, it happens to every ML pitcher. If it was easy, everyone would do it...

-What did work: Velocity. Ubaldo's four seam fastball, for the first time this year, showed the kind of explosion that was prevalent in the first half of the 2010 season. He couldn't find the plate with it, but it was a thunderbolt into the mid upper 90's on the gun. It's something to build on...

When a pitcher has this kind of outing.. you look for what worked.. what didn't.. The Indians' Scott Radinsky quite possibly may be best served by capturing what did work and applying it going forward.. It's Rad's job to recapture the guy they traded for, after all..
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Prosecutor » Wed May 02, 2012 8:41 am

There was a column yesterday about how Radzinsky helped Joe Smith get straightened out last year by simplifying his delivery after it got screwed up by a Mets pitching coach. The results have been impressive, and he did it in the middle of the season.

Rad needs to do something similar with Ubaldo. However, Ubaldo has to buy into it. If he continues to struggle the way he has for another month or two, he should be open to suggestions.

Making him the #5 starter instead of #2 won't change anything. He still starts every 5th game. At this point I don't know what they can do except try some minor tweaking in hopes of finding two pitches that he can consistently throw for strikes; the fastball and one of his breaking pitches.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Rocky55 » Wed May 02, 2012 9:41 am

I'd look into finding Ubie a personal catcher, maybe even pick up a veteran. I'd tell the catcher to go Crash Davis on Ubie. Think Tony Pena smacking Mesa with the glove. Instead of his 7 or 8 pitches, find the ones(1, 2 or 3) that are working & stick with them until they don't swork anymore.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ScrappyWahoo » Wed May 02, 2012 10:08 am

So we can only talk about Jimenez 2 bad starts out of 5 starts and not Pomeranz 5+ or white 7+ era? Lol






][/b]
GeronimoSon wrote:Hmmm... were you guys watching the same Ubaldo that has been getting torched in just about every outing this year?..

To start.. Drew Pomeranz and Alex White are gone.. sent off.. no longer here.. pfffft.. discussing that which was is like trying to put the toothpaste back into the tube..it's a worthless endeavor...get over it..

What about Ubaldo's performance worked and didn't work from his previous starts?..

-What didn't work: Primarily command of his fastball, he was all over the place, especially to RH hitters. When he took some off, Pierzynski and Beckham hammered it.. His split?.. off the plate or bouncing in the dirt the all night.. His slider..late release point off the plate or hanging.. Nothing was working during this outing.. Okay..it happens.. and will continue to happen, it happens to every ML pitcher. If it was easy, everyone would do it...

-What did work: Velocity. Ubaldo's four seam fastball, for the first time this year, showed the kind of explosion that was prevalent in the first half of the 2010 season. He couldn't find the plate with it, but it was a thunderbolt into the mid upper 90's on the gun. It's something to build on...

When a pitcher has this kind of outing.. you look for what worked.. what didn't.. The Indians' Scott Radinsky quite possibly may be best served by capturing what did work and applying it going forward.. It's Rad's job to recapture the guy they traded for, after all..
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby criznit2009 » Wed May 02, 2012 11:54 am

Bottom line - Ubaldo gave up a bomb of a HR considering who hit it (Pierzynski) on a 0-2 count. Giving up a homer with an 0-2 count and also walking in a run tells me Ubaldo has SERIOUS control issues.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Bearcatbob » Wed May 02, 2012 4:27 pm

If I was Ubaldo and watched the crap that went on in the infield I would be irate that Cabrerra and company were not sharing the heat. Last night was a joke.

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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Wed May 02, 2012 5:46 pm

Bearcatbob wrote:If I was Ubaldo and watched the crap that went on in the infield I would be irate that Cabrerra and company were not sharing the heat. Last night was a joke.

Bob


Agree here. Ubaldo shouldn't get a free pass, but after that HR to Beckham he came back and should have had 2 outs on 4 pitches...instead runners are on the corners with no outs and Dunn at the plate. Maybe he still walks both Dunn and Konerko, but lot easier facing Dunn with the bases empty and 2 outs than runners on the corner and no outs.

That loss belonged to the infield.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby indians1 » Wed May 02, 2012 7:46 pm

I agree the defense didn't help, but ubaldo can't be walking 6 guys in a game.

bottom line: we need ubaldo to become the #1 or #2 guy for us to compete for the division. I hear you that the trade is done and over with. The problem is that we gaveup 3 power arms for a guy that is supposed to help us compete and contend for a division, and all he has done is continued losing streaks or put an end to winning streaks.

We can't win without him. The indians have to fix his delivery. Manny acta's comments make it look like they are going to stay away from messing with his mechanics. This past offseason was the time to do it and we did what we always do: coddle them.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Prosecutor » Thu May 03, 2012 8:53 am

indians1 wrote:We can't win without him. The indians have to fix his delivery. Manny acta's comments make it look like they are going to stay away from messing with his mechanics. This past offseason was the time to do it and we did what we always do: coddle them.


In today's Indians Insider column in the PD they report that Radzinsky found a flaw in his delivery from comparing video of him this year with 2010. He's dropping his left shoulder. They're working on fixing it. Not a big overhaul, just tweaking one thing. The next couple of starts will be critical, IMO.

If Rad fixes Ubaldo like he fixed Joe Smith they should give him a bonus. Smith was filthy last night and has been since the season started.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby indians1 » Thu May 03, 2012 1:16 pm

I really hope they can fix ubaldo. They need to fix him. They don't have any elite pitching coming up in the minors. They need masterson and ubaldo to be really good the next few years or we will not compete.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby OhioBaseball » Sat May 05, 2012 11:49 am

This Ubaldo Jimenez thing is a major problem. The velocity drop is very material. Yeah, its concerning, but I think Ubaldo can be a good pitcher without the velocity. Ubaldo throws from a high 3/4 slot and gets good downward plane and also gets good tail on his 2-seemer. Even at 91-92mph, that is a good major league pitch. In his first game of the season vs. the Blue Jays, he had pretty good command of his fastball. It kind of looked like he sacrificed velo for command, which is fine -- it happens with a lot of pitchers. Living in another market, I don't get to see all Indians games but I saw the Chicago White Sox game and it was a mess. Significantly less stuff and significantly worse command -- that is awful. Outside of his first start, he's been atrocious.

I'm not hear to rip on him or the trade, but I think he can be a good 3 starter if he can command his fastball at the lower velocities. I think his breaking stuff is good, and vs. the Blue Jays the guy even dropped an arm slot once or twice to break off a slider vs. a RH hitter -- he can be a crafty pitcher ala Orlando Hernandez and that's good, but I think the days of 2009-2010 Jimenez are long gone. He's going to have to be a different pitcher going forward.

The Indians are very fortunate that Jeanmar Gomez has been so good.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun May 06, 2012 8:26 am

No worries folks.... Seldom (right) Ocker of the Akron Beacon Urinal has the solution for what ails the Indians and Ubaldo..

Use the sledgehammer.. That's right.. the sledgehammer..

HUH?..

According to good ole Seldom, the Indians should send Ubaldo to the Minor Leagues, exposing him to waivers, etc.. just like they did with Cliff Lee.. Seldom seems to believe that players being sent to the minors won't like that.. so, they'll fix what's wrong so they won't have to stay in the minors.. (gotta love the insight on this !)

AND.. MOST IMPORTANTLY, by sending Ubaldo to the minors, Seldom has deemed the question: What's wrong with Ubaldo, moot. This way Manny Acta won't have to answer that question!!..

Great analysis by this 30+ year verteran Indians beat writer.. (Perhaps senility isn't so bad?..)
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby TonyIBI » Sun May 06, 2012 10:34 pm

To date, the trade is a bomb. There is still time to salvage it, but that time is quickly running out since Ubaldo is only here at most through next season. He was brought in to help win now and be a difference maker now....but to date, for the most part, he has been a problem more than a solution.

I will give him credit for today....a solid outing. The fastball command was still kind of iffy, and the 5 walks are a sign that problems are still there and eventually will lead to more blowups.....but one thing I liked today was the curveball. That thing looked as good as it ever has with the Indians, and it looks like he threw it a ton more than before. Maybe they are going to have him start featuring it more, who knows, but it won't do a bit of difference if the fastball command does not get better. Today was a step in the right direction....but I still don't see any light at the end of the tunnel. Long way to go....which is sad considering the price paid in the trade.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Mon May 07, 2012 7:40 am

Tony, what price?

The objective is ALWAYS to win at the ML level.

If you want fans to attend games ... win. They won't attend games following what prospects do at the minor leagues.

Sounds to me your stance is kinda selfish.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon May 07, 2012 8:23 am

Just a quick frame of reference regarding the trade that is being labelled a bust...

-Ubaldo Jimenez, In six starts, 35.2 IP: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 25 BB, 25 K's, .237 BAA and 1.60 WHIP

-Drew Pomeranz, In four starts, 20.0 IP: 0-1, 4.05 ERA, 12 BB, 18 K's, .267 BAA and 1.60 WHIP

Alex White is in the minors where he's struggling at AAA. Joe Gardner is in the minors where he's struggling.

The net here is IF the Indians didn't roll the dice and make the trade, they would have a younger, more conventional left handed starter as opposed to an unconventional right handed starter who walks a LOT of hitters (6.3 BB's/9IP). It's not like Drew Pomeranz is keeping hitters off the bases by not issuing walks, either (5.4 BB's/9 IP). It should be noted that after his first start of the season (5 ER, 4.1 IP), Drew Pomeranz has been pretty much the ACE of the Rockies staff (15.2 IP 4 ER) but has seen his BB total continue to rise..

So, is the trade a bust?.. IMHO, Not yet.. maybe not ever. Maybe yes.. Too early to say...
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Mon May 07, 2012 11:02 am

History many times repeats itself.

A similar situation?

Luis Tiant won 21 games for the Indians in 1968 with a 1.60 ERA. The following season his record dipped to 9-20, but still with an ERA under 4.00. The Indians panicked and sent him to Minnesota in a big trade that netted the Indians Craig Nettle, Dean Chance and Ted Uhlander. Chance, from Wooster, Ohio, was a phenomenal pitcher for seven ML seasons playing for the expansion Angels and Twins won 9 games for us before he was out of baseball entirely within 2 seasons.
Nettles became a star with the Yankees and Uhlander was much like Kotchman was last year, good average, very little power.

Tiant at the age of 29 was fighting through arm and mechanic problems during the 1969 and 1970 season. He went 8-10 the next two years with the Twins and Boston before rebounding in 1972 with the Red Sox producing a 15-6 record with a 1.91 ERA. This comeback season reinvented Tiant, he went on to win 119 games the next 7 seasons including three 20+ win seasons. He pitched a total of 19 years.

Case in point, pitchers do have slumps and get out of whack. They only become available during these rare instances. Jimenez's stuff is SPECIAL. Stay with him, indeed he is a number one rotation guy when he's right. The guy is still young and if given the chance, he can be a big winner for us. You don't compete for division titles and WS with rookie pitchers.

If you want fans at the ballpark this team needs to contend. Hopefully, the Indians can be more like the Cardinals. With the right talent evaluators and good drafts and a few good trades along the way they can keep competing year in and year out.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Mon May 07, 2012 12:11 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:Just a quick frame of reference regarding the trade that is being labelled a bust...

-Ubaldo Jimenez, In six starts, 35.2 IP: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 25 BB, 25 K's, .237 BAA and 1.60 WHIP

-Drew Pomeranz, In four starts, 20.0 IP: 0-1, 4.05 ERA, 12 BB, 18 K's, .267 BAA and 1.60 WHIP

Alex White is in the minors where he's struggling at AAA. Joe Gardner is in the minors where he's struggling.


Not sure how a 2.92 ERA, .236 BAA, and 1.18 WHIP in 5 starts is considered struggling for White at AAA. Has yet to give up more than 2 earned runs in any start. Wouldn't say he's dominating down there, but far from struggling.

Agree it's too early to call the trade a bust though.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon May 07, 2012 12:20 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Not sure how a 2.92 ERA, .236 BAA, and 1.18 WHIP in 5 starts is considered struggling for White at AAA. Has yet to give up more than 2 earned runs in any start. Wouldn't say he's dominating down there, but far from struggling.

Agree it's too early to call the trade a bust though.


I was referring to three of White's five starts, failing to go more than five innings (five innings once, less than that two other times) while giving up a pair of earned runs in each outing. His team doesn't seem to score for him, so he has a poor W/L record (1-3) as well. For an alleged uber prospect, it's not exactly "dominating", but, may not be struggling, either..

Perhaps it's a matter of degree...
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Mon May 07, 2012 12:36 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:Not sure how a 2.92 ERA, .236 BAA, and 1.18 WHIP in 5 starts is considered struggling for White at AAA. Has yet to give up more than 2 earned runs in any start. Wouldn't say he's dominating down there, but far from struggling.

Agree it's too early to call the trade a bust though.


I was referring to three of White's five starts, failing to go more than five innings (five innings once, less than that two other times) while giving up a pair of earned runs in each outing. His team doesn't seem to score for him, so he has a poor W/L record (1-3) as well. For an alleged uber prospect, it's not exactly "dominating", but, may not be struggling, either..

Perhaps it's a matter of degree...


Fair enough. Agree he's not dominating by any means, just think struggling was a bit strong.

Does look like a reliever to me...not that suprising consider the Indians and the Rockies have both said at times that he is a future reliever (Tribe when they drafted him, Rockies this spring).
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Mon May 07, 2012 12:43 pm

Seems the key to Ubaldo being successful.....pitch at Progressive Field.

Since being acquired he's made 8 starts at home in Progressive Field...the numbers:

3-3, 55 IP (6.9 per start), 48K/20BB (2.4 K/BB), 7.85 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 2.78 ERA, .179 BAA

Never pitched fewer than 6 innings, 6 of the 8 he's gone at least 7 innings, 6 of the 8 have been quality starts, never allowed more than 4 earned runs (twice)...


Since being acquired he's made 9 road starts...the numbers:

4-3, 46 IP (5.1 per start), 34K/20 (1.06 K/BB), 6.65 K/9, 6.26 BB/9, 7.04 ERA, .325 BAA

Only gone 6 innings in 3 of the 9 starts (never gone 7), only 3 of 9 have been quality starts, only allowed fewer than 4 runs in 3 of the starts...


Sample size is still not that large, but pretty amazing how Jekyll and Hyde he is on the road vs at home since coming to Cleveland...

In only 6 starts this year he's a difference of over 200 pts in his BAA home vs away (.134 vs .338)! Not like the teams he's faced at home are chop liver too....Rangers, Blue Jays, and Royals at home vs Royals, A's, and White Sox on the road.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Mon May 07, 2012 1:33 pm

During some down time at work (which, I guess I still have down time...) I went looking at Ubaldo's delivery in 2012 vs. his delivery in 2010, specificially the no-hitter he threw against the Atlanta Braves.

What I came away with from watching (very limited) video was that Ubaldo isn't too far off from the delivery that made him so successful 2 years ago, but there are noticable differences:

In his disasterous start against Chicago: When Ubaldo is at the height of his leg-kick in his delivery, he seems hunched over, as opposed to being basically upright (2010). He holds his glove closer to his head and positions it more towards 2nd base, whereas in 2010 his glove is just above the letters and positioned squarely in the middle of his chest.

One positive from the brief video of the Chicago disaster, Ubaldo looks like he's finishing better by being almost horizontal with the field after a pitch is thrown. He was doing that in 2010. Ben Badler of Baseball America noted last year that Ubaldo wasn't finishing like he was in 2010 and wondered if Ubaldo was hurt.

Now... granted, I can't see every aspect of his delivery, and it was hard to take away TOO much from the recent (2012) video (MLB.com had all of Ubaldo's 27 outs in his no-no), but I'm starting to feel a little more encouraged. I don't think the velocity will ever be consistently 95+, but pitchers can pitch effectively with lessened velocity... Felix Hernandez is a prime example of this.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon May 07, 2012 4:03 pm

Mag.. another example is CC Sabathia.. he can bring it at 97/98 whenever he wants to reach back for a bit more, but he's vastly more effective when he's throwing 93/94.. still plenty of velo for a fastball at the ML level, but better command.. If you have a choice.. you'd take command over velo..

Sadly, Ubaldo doesn't quite get the command part all that well.. and he may never have that, but, this last outing is evidence it's in there somewhere....
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Mon May 07, 2012 8:26 pm

Watch the highlights of Jimenez's outing against the Rangers yesterday. His ball moves all over the place. It's unreal how much it moves. And his breaking ball was phenomenal yesterday. Tremendous natural ability. When he gets it back completely he could run off 10 wins in a row, he's that talented.

Let's put Tony in the batters box against Ubaldo and then Pomeranz and then --- MAYBE he could get his opine in the right direction.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby TonyIBI » Tue May 08, 2012 12:06 am

ironmike wrote:Tony, what price?

The objective is ALWAYS to win at the ML level.

If you want fans to attend games ... win. They won't attend games following what prospects do at the minor leagues.

Sounds to me your stance is kinda selfish.


Um, point is, Pomeranz, White et al are CURRENCY. Assets the team could have used to acquire a better player and not the second coming of the mental midget that is Fausto Carmona.

Mike, you always talk of how the Indians need to acquire that five tool bat (that somehow would be available in a trade). Well, the price you ask....the Indians blew their two best trade chips and the only real trade currency they had to get a legit bat. I would have much rather of used Pomeranz/White in a deal for a mega bat and not a pitcher that obviously has consistency issues and is not a frontline guy.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby A.Zajac » Tue May 08, 2012 12:10 am

TonyIPI wrote:
ironmike wrote:Tony, what price?

The objective is ALWAYS to win at the ML level.

If you want fans to attend games ... win. They won't attend games following what prospects do at the minor leagues.

Sounds to me your stance is kinda selfish.


Um, point is, Pomeranz, White et al are CURRENCY. Assets the team could have used to acquire a better player and not the second coming of the mental midget that is Fausto Carmona.

Mike, you always talk of how the Indians need to acquire that five tool bat (that somehow would be available in a trade). Well, the price you ask....the Indians blew their two best trade chips and the only real trade currency they had to get a legit bat. I would have much rather of used Pomeranz/White in a deal for a mega bat and not a pitcher that obviously has consistency issues and is not a frontline guy.


Think of what this team could be if they would have thrown Pomeranz and White at the Astros for Pence.... oh man. This offense would be better with Pence in the lineup!
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Tue May 08, 2012 7:51 am

Zajac do I detect a "dig" in your post. If so, grow up ... quickly.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Tue May 08, 2012 8:01 am

The fact is, the Indians DO need to acquire or develop a 5 tool player who is RH hitting outfielder. Put Manny or Belle on this team right now and we could be serious contenders to win it all.

We have pieces to build a substantial offer to acquire this type of player. You want fans to come to the games, then winning at the ML level must be the priority. That's the only way.

The Indians need a larger season ticket base, the only way that is going to happen is for the fans to really get excited by win games consistently and competing with baseball's best teams. The Indians ownership also needs a really good PR firm to promote a better understanding with the fans. The Dolan's need to do a better job communicating their ownership objectives, the key might be more often. They have the tools via STO to do it.

It's all about the same formula that was used in the 90's with the Indians and currently in play with the Texas Rangers and the better teams in baseball. It is not rocket science. Antonetti brings a new dynamic to the GM position, ditto Grant with the draft, now the Indians gotta keep moving forward.

Truthfully, I could care less about Pomerantz and White. Jimenez, when he is right, has Pedro Martinez stuff. Easy to see, don't need any scout's BS who are only trying to make an impression on young writers. In baseball talent evaluation, if experienced, more can be learned by what you see, than by what you read.

Hey, how about Tomlin, again, last nite. Here's a guy that wasn't even on the prospect radar, but Tim Belcher and Manny Acta knew what they had.

Enough said.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue May 08, 2012 8:52 am

Hermie13 wrote:Seems the key to Ubaldo being successful.....pitch at Progressive Field.

Since being acquired he's made 8 starts at home in Progressive Field...the numbers:

3-3, 55 IP (6.9 per start), 48K/20BB (2.4 K/BB), 7.85 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 2.78 ERA, .179 BAA

Never pitched fewer than 6 innings, 6 of the 8 he's gone at least 7 innings, 6 of the 8 have been quality starts, never allowed more than 4 earned runs (twice)...


Since being acquired he's made 9 road starts...the numbers:

4-3, 46 IP (5.1 per start), 34K/20 (1.06 K/BB), 6.65 K/9, 6.26 BB/9, 7.04 ERA, .325 BAA

Only gone 6 innings in 3 of the 9 starts (never gone 7), only 3 of 9 have been quality starts, only allowed fewer than 4 runs in 3 of the starts...


Sample size is still not that large, but pretty amazing how Jekyll and Hyde he is on the road vs at home since coming to Cleveland...

In only 6 starts this year he's a difference of over 200 pts in his BAA home vs away (.134 vs .338)! Not like the teams he's faced at home are chop liver too....Rangers, Blue Jays, and Royals at home vs Royals, A's, and White Sox on the road.


Good analyses... the home / away splits are quite revealing. The question becomes, why does a pitcher perform so admirably at home while struggling on the road?. The easy solution is 'park factor' (imho, a contrived stat that's easy to measure and report, but shows significant variation, so it has meaning...what that meaning is or what the root cause of the variance is, is clearly open to conjecture). Well, there are at least two problems with Park Factor:

1. The sample size is TOOO SMALL to be considered representative..
2. The reasons for using Park Factor aren't exactly defined, clear or may not even be salient to the specific player..

At this point, I'd be inclined to go with Park Factor being a contributing cause/effect reason for the variance in the splits. What level of contribution?.. IDK..

It's been theorized that a pitcher is just more comfortable sleeping in his own bed.. Well, if there's merit to that, it's an easy solution.. Build a damn crate and ship the bed to where ever the team's playing.. It can't cost more than couple thousand dollars for each of the 15 - 17 road starts per year.. $ 34 K and the team gets the "home" version of the splits?.. Sounds like a cheap fix to me..

If this "response" starts to get ridiculous (not that it already hasn't), you can stop reading..

How about the food a player eats?. Give mom or the wife..or who ever the FedEx account number and have it shipped.

There's something in those splits that says.. Success on one side.. and FAILURE on the other!! maybe Chris Antonetti needs to call for Jobu to come... He can fix the problem...
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Tue May 08, 2012 12:22 pm

TonyIPI wrote:Um, point is, Pomeranz, White et al are CURRENCY. Assets the team could have used to acquire a better player and not the second coming of the mental midget that is Fausto Carmona.

Mike, you always talk of how the Indians need to acquire that five tool bat (that somehow would be available in a trade). Well, the price you ask....the Indians blew their two best trade chips and the only real trade currency they had to get a legit bat. I would have much rather of used Pomeranz/White in a deal for a mega bat and not a pitcher that obviously has consistency issues and is not a frontline guy.


I agree and disagree here.

Agree that the deal looks bad, and getting a Carmona-type of pitcher (mentally) is very frustrating for what we gave up.

However, no way do I trade my 2 best pitching prospects for a hitter, at least nothing that's been even rumored to be available (no Miggy Cabrera's on the block), not with how bad our rotation actually was last year outside of Masterson. This team absolutely needed a TOR starter if they wanted to compete both last year and this year. Masterson had a good year, but he was actually the only starter on the team to post an above average ERA last year (even Tomlin was slightly below).

Hindsight is 20-20....would have been better off IMO now holding off and going after Gio Gonzalez with Pom, White, and whatnot. Would have made a good 1-2 right-left combo at the top of the rotation with Masterson. Hard to fault the Indians for not waiting, they thought they could win last year and Gio wasn't on the block.

Tribe could not afford to deal both Pom and White though without getting a starting pitcher back. Rotation was worse than the offense last year when compared to the rest of the AL (Starter's ERA ranked 10th in the AL, Offense ranked 9th in runs in AL).

Hopefully Ubaldo can turn it around though...still time to salvage this trade.


Agree with your main point though that the Tribe used much of it's trade currency already so saying we need to trade for a big bat right now is kinda foolish. Just think people are overlooking the rotation issues we actually had last year.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Tue May 08, 2012 2:57 pm

We have lots of pieces left to be able to acquire a real premier player. Don't see Chisenhall unseating Hannahan at 3B, Donald is a good young player who really needs to play every day. Kluber and McAllister, one or the other has real value, Choo won't resign and then there are other prospects. Lots of options. Carmona is coming back, Carrasco will be back next year.

If we can't get thee guy, then a player like Carlos Quentin, who is recovering from an injury for less than a 5 tool player could be had at the deadline, provided he is healthy. We need a RH hitting outfielder.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue May 08, 2012 6:54 pm

ironmike wrote:We have lots of pieces .....
If we can't get thee guy, then a player like Carlos Quentin, who is recovering from an injury for less than a 5 tool player could be had at the deadline, provided he is healthy. We need a RH hitting outfielder.


Iron,
Carlos Q is a guy I've wished the Tribe acquired years ago. That said, IYHO what is a reasonable offer for both sides (San Diego & Tribe) to get a deal done??
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby TonyIBI » Thu May 10, 2012 9:23 am

ironmike wrote:We have lots of pieces left to be able to acquire a real premier player. Don't see Chisenhall unseating Hannahan at 3B, Donald is a good young player who really needs to play every day. Kluber and McAllister, one or the other has real value, Choo won't resign and then there are other prospects. Lots of options. Carmona is coming back, Carrasco will be back next year.

If we can't get thee guy, then a player like Carlos Quentin, who is recovering from an injury for less than a 5 tool player could be had at the deadline, provided he is healthy. We need a RH hitting outfielder.


The problem is, to get a frontline player as you suggest (if any are even available), at least one frontline player has to go in return. The Indians do not have such a player in the minors at the moment in the upper levels. So, to make a deal, they'd have to trade someone like Kipnis.

The Kluber's, McAllister's, Donald's of the world are solid players....but they are 2nd and 3rd pieces in a trade. Not anything to headline a trade. Even Chisenhall no longer has that frontline appeal. That's the problem.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Magneticnorth451 » Thu May 10, 2012 10:32 am

TonyIPI wrote:Even Chisenhall no longer has that frontline appeal. That's the problem.


Off topic, but has Chisenhall really fallen that far?
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Thu May 10, 2012 12:53 pm

Choo might have appeal to a few teams. Provided Sizemore can play again, resign him and move Choo.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Thu May 10, 2012 12:53 pm

Magneticnorth451 wrote:
TonyIPI wrote:Even Chisenhall no longer has that frontline appeal. That's the problem.


Off topic, but has Chisenhall really fallen that far?


Have a very hard time believing this. While his walk-rate has been pretty darn bad since being called up to the bigs, he actually posted some ok ones in the minors being in the high 8s (was up at 9.6 last year in AAA before the call, not great but solid). That and his defense are the only real negatives with him as the kid is only 23 and will be 23 for the entire regular season (for comparison sake, Kipnis was 25 on Opening Day this year). I admit I haven't seen him play a ton this year so maybe he is swinging at a lot of bad pitches and lost all plate dicipline, but his K-rate suggests he's not striking out really that much more than he has in the past down in the minors.

Probably isn't quite as highly regarded but can't imagine if he was still considered a "prospect" in the eyes of scouts that he'd be out of any top 50 lists. Still believe he can be a Bearga type of hitter (more power but less speed) where he won't walk a ton (Bearga was usually around 4-5%) but hit for a good average. Love that stroke he has still and believe he can hit at the ML level.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Thu May 10, 2012 12:57 pm

ironmike wrote:Choo might have appeal to a few teams. Provided Sizemore can play again, resign him and move Choo.


It's an idea I guess...but the problem with moving Choo is there is really no one to play RF right now. IPlus with his value down, not sure you get the big bat you want.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby TonyIBI » Thu May 10, 2012 2:33 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
ironmike wrote:Choo might have appeal to a few teams. Provided Sizemore can play again, resign him and move Choo.


It's an idea I guess...but the problem with moving Choo is there is really no one to play RF right now. IPlus with his value down, not sure you get the big bat you want.


That and Choo won't net much in return.

Again, when seeking out big time upgrades for the lineup, the Indians have little available to trade or that they are willing to park with. Another reason the Ubaldo trade hurts as those two arms could have been used in such a deal (or two).
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Fri May 11, 2012 8:15 am

Stay tuned, either a significant trade prior to the deadline or one in the off-season is what is being discussed. They might only be able to get a stop gap player this year, but an impact RH hitter is on the top of the Indians list. They did it when they acquired Milton Bradley and later Grady Sizemore.

Right now the Indians are on pace to score 729 runs, that kind of production won't get this team in the playoffs. They are going to need to score about 5.5 runs per game - about 835-850 runs over the entire regular season schedule to make the playoffs.

The low run production of 729 also means that our starting pitchers will have a difficult time winning more than 13-14 games no matter how well they pitch.

It's beyond obvious they need to make an upgrade with their offense. More than likely it will be surprising to many what will be done to correct the heavy LH laden hitters currently on the roster. Just like the Jimenez trade, it will be a surprise and expect the Indians to strike quickly before most of the other teams get involved with deadline deals.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Prosecutor » Fri May 11, 2012 9:17 am

I don't think we need to panic just yet, Mike. Yes, the run production is lower than optimal. But considering that Choo, Kotchman, and Brantley got off to very slow starts and they're all starting to hit, I'm expecting the scoring to increase.

Kotchman is 8-for-21 in his last few games. Brantley had four hits last night and two hard line drives the night before. Choo is starting to hit after missing a week due to injury. We know that Hafner, Santana, Kipnis, and Cabrera will be productive over the entire season, barring injury. Hannahan is hitting .290 on top of the excellent second half he had last season. The only position where we're getting virtually nothing is left field, but as long as the other eight spots are contributing we should be OK.

Grady is the wild card.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Fri May 11, 2012 9:53 am

The Indians are quickly approaching the 40 game mark, which represents 25% of the season. In most cases, what you have in the first 40 games is a true barometer of the season.

Without question, they need to make a big move. Can't count on what players are supposed to do. Santana really did hit for average last year, Choo has been regressing the past 2 seasons and Kotchman is an unknown. Choo IMO is a huge problem for the Indians, he's underachieved and lacks consistency.

If they want to contend, they will need to be aggressive in acquiring help. A healthy and productive Sizemore will help, but won't be enough. If they are going to go with Johnny Damon they need to let him play daily against all types of pitching. Duncan is far to inconsistent.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Fri May 11, 2012 12:10 pm

ironmike wrote:Right now the Indians are on pace to score 729 runs, that kind of production won't get this team in the playoffs. They are going to need to score about 5.5 runs per game - about 835-850 runs over the entire regular season schedule to make the playoffs.


Only 3 teams in all of baseball scored 800 runs last year, let alone 835...and only 2 of them made the playoffs (Rangers and Yankees). Even the Tigers only scored 787 runs last year.

No clue where this 830+ run thing is coming from but you do NOT need to score that many runs to make the playoffs. Granted TB has better pitching than us but they only scored 707 runs last year and made the playoffs. Tribe will need to score more than 729 IMO but not 100+ more runs like you are suggesting.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby TonyIBI » Fri May 11, 2012 12:23 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
ironmike wrote:Right now the Indians are on pace to score 729 runs, that kind of production won't get this team in the playoffs. They are going to need to score about 5.5 runs per game - about 835-850 runs over the entire regular season schedule to make the playoffs.


Only 3 teams in all of baseball scored 800 runs last year, let alone 835...and only 2 of them made the playoffs (Rangers and Yankees). Even the Tigers only scored 787 runs last year.

No clue where this 830+ run thing is coming from but you do NOT need to score that many runs to make the playoffs. Granted TB has better pitching than us but they only scored 707 runs last year and made the playoffs. Tribe will need to score more than 729 IMO but not 100+ more runs like you are suggesting.


Agree. Heck, only two teams right now are averaging 5.5 or more runs a game (Cardinals, Rangers). Everyone else is at 5.1 or much less.

Mike, the game has changed the last few years. I think you need to adjust that need where you now have to average 4.5 runs a game and not 5.5. Much more realistic and in tune with today's pitching/defense game.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby ironmike » Fri May 11, 2012 12:26 pm

Hermie, you always are splitting hairs. Texas is on par to score 850 runs.

You wanna contend or win a WS? You need to score like the '95 Indians
or be in the top group of runs scored in the AL.

Now do you want to debate that???

The pace we are now, 4.5 runs a game, ain't gonna cut it. Did it last year? Right now,
we are the same as last year, no improvement regarding our offense because
we only added role players over the winter. The main problems still exist, no
igniter at the top of the order and no consistent run production from our outfielders.

All heavy LH hitting line up doesn't allow us to match up late in games with the opposing
teams bull pen and all the LH pitchers are neutralizing our line up.

I'm certain GM Antonetti knows this, sit back and watch what he does. It will be
all about fixing the offense. More prospects are going, they are the only chips we
have.

A big blockbuster is looming.
Last edited by ironmike on Fri May 11, 2012 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby Hermie13 » Fri May 11, 2012 12:36 pm

ironmike wrote:Hermie, you always are splitting hairs. Texas is on par to score 850 runs.

You wanna contend or win a WS, you need to score like the '95 Indians.

Now do you want to debate that???

Trust me the pace we are now, 4.5 runs a game, ain't gonna cut it.

I'm certain GM Antonetti knows this, sit back and watch what he does. It will be
all about fixing the offense.


If Babe Ruth came down from the heavens and joined the Indians, we wouldn't score like the '95 Indians.

If you added Matt Kemp to this current team right now, we wouldn't be an 850 run team. You're in for a disappointing summer if you think Antonetti can turn the offense into what you're expecting. Might as well be asking him to raise the dead or part the red sea.
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Re: Ubaldo is a mess

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri May 11, 2012 12:40 pm

Whether it's 4.5 runs per game.. or 5.5 runs per game.. is immaterial.. What is material is having at least one more run than the opponent about 90-92 times.. That might be enough to make the new record starting in October, 0-0...

Tonight the Indians face Buchholz and his good W/L record and atrocious pitching. He doesn't have his change up.. No change up and his pitches become hittable as the batters don't have to worry about the velocity difference.. Like last night, the Indians need to JUMP on him early and often to guarantee the Indians a split in this series. If that were to occur, then taking at least one of two over the weekend, would give the Indians another series win.. Taking both, would be the cherry on top..

The Ubaldo show returns for the seventh time.. The "Get Strike One" version has been hard to recognize and even harder to find. Perhaps, tonight, the baseball gods are smiling on Ubaldo and gives the thunderbolt in his right arm the magic to command the fastball in the zone.. everything else will fall in place...

Btw.. nice game by the foursome Hannahan, Drooobs, Brantley & Kipnis.. Droobs just flat out likes to hit in Boston...
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