International Free Agents - 2012

[OhioBaseball]

Some guy has posted some video clips on a large group of Dominican prospects for this class. I think it's awesome. I always wanted to go down to the Caribbean to see some prospects, so getting a quick look at these guys is real fun.

There are some good talents, but these are some guys that appeal to me if I were attempting to sign prospects from this class (not necessarily the best, but I'm adjusting what I perceive the cost of the prospect to be);

Wendell Rijo; 2b. I love what I see in this guy's swing. I don't expect him to get a top signing bonus b/c (1) he's small, (2) his arm strength probably puts him at 2b and (3) he doesn't look like a plus runner. Not exactly exciting projection here, but damn, this guy is going to be a hitter. He is really advanced for someone his age with the bat. Very polished swing, very good bat speed. Should be a very good line-drive, doubles hitter. I see a 2b with .300 average and 35-40 doubles and 5-10 HR's a season at physical peak. He will move quickly up the minor league ladder. Won't get as much attention as other guys at this stage b/c his tools or projection don't compare well.

Kelyn Jose; LHP. Very good upside LHP. Very good arm action, pitcher's body and projection. Expect him to be one of the highest profile international signings and justifiably so. Very good ceiling.

Frandy De La Rosa; 2b/3b. Strong body type. More physically mature than other guys his age. I really like his swing from both sides of the plate. Good strength. Could be a good offensive-oriented 2b type, or even possibly take on 3b. I think his body type kind of precludes him from being a SS at the major league level even though it's an athletic kind of build, but he's got good offensive potential.

There's lots of other prospects out there; many other positional talents that will command high signing bonuses. I'm just mentioning the guys that I'm attracted to when including their potential price tag. I don't think Rijo or De La Rosa will get top bonuses, but would be good signings. Jose (the pitcher) should get lots of money, but is probably worth it even though 17 year old pitchers are very high risk investments!

[homerawayfromhome]

MLB.com has a list of 20 international FAs. Most of which are RH hitters, it would be interesting way for the Tribe to add some RH hitting to the system. While the system is bottom heavy with talent there simply can never be enough on the farm IMO. Many of these guys are yrs away but the tribe might be interested in adding a few to add talent and depth into the system.

[OhioBaseball]

International free agent signing period begin today.

There are a lot of guys out there and given the ages of the prospects, there can be a lot of volatility in terms of prospect status.

I really like ss/2b Wendell Rijo. You'll see Dustin Pedroia comparisons unjustly thrown around to mediocre prospects, but Rijo is a legitimate comp and I think Rijo's swing is more traditional. I don't think Rijo will get a huge signing bonus b/c he lacks the projection some of the other guys have, but this guy is a player. I'd love to see the Indians get this guy. He should move quickly for whatever team signs him.

Also like Frandy de la Rosa b/c of his hit tool, and I think Jose Castillo (Venezuela) is a good LHP prospect with very nice projectability.

These guys are going to be going off the board very quickly in the coming days. It'll be interesting to see if the Indians step it up.

[Magneticnorth451]

According to Baseball America, the Indians have signed 16-year Catcher Yoiber Marquina out of Venezuela.

[GeronimoSon]

International free agent signing period begin today.

There are a lot of guys out there and given the ages of the prospects, there can be a lot of volatility in terms of prospect status.

I really like ss/2b Wendell Rijo. You'll see Dustin Pedroia comparisons unjustly thrown around to mediocre prospects, but Rijo is a legitimate comp and I think Rijo's swing is more traditional. I don't think Rijo will get a huge signing bonus b/c he lacks the projection some of the other guys have, but this guy is a player. I'd love to see the Indians get this guy. He should move quickly for whatever team signs him.

Also like Frandy de la Rosa b/c of his hit tool, and I think Jose Castillo (Venezuela) is a good LHP prospect with very nice projectability.

These guys are going to be going off the board very quickly in the coming days. It'll be interesting to see if the Indians step it up.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Indians take a look at & sign Gustavo!! (Cabrera).. this kid has upside projectability written all over him.. Physically, he's about as good as you will find in the DR. He has a very short swing to the ball that stays in the hitting zone a long time..& not much movement, otherwise.. With a strong & accurate arm and decent speed.. he'd be a better target than JO Berrio..imho..

edit: he already signed with the SF Giants.. ooops..

[dazindiansfanuk]

Indians have signed Naoki Hashimoto out of Japan for $250k.

Know nothing about him other than his name and the price.

Only link is in Japanese

https://twitter.com/npbtracker/status/2 ... 6620460035

[dazindiansfanuk]

Dominican Catcher Francisco Meija signed for $350k

[OhioBaseball]

Based on the 3 signings announced to the public, the Indians have spent $1.05MM thus far. The limit is $2.9MM (on higher profile signings), or $3.2MM when you include smaller signings. So there are still some bullets left for the Indians.

I don't like the idea of signing guys at age 17 or so to big signing bonuses b/c you have little idea where they truly are in the physical maturation process and how that's going to impact their tools in the near to intermediate future, but I think Wendell Rijo is a baller -- such a great swing. Give this guy his money, Cleveland. I have little faith they will actually do it b/c my confidence in the organization is dwindling by the day but we'll see.

[dazindiansfanuk]

It appears Hashimoto is a RHP

http://yakyubaka.com/tag/naoki-hashimoto/

[homerawayfromhome]

The tribe is also rumored to have signed Taiwanese 16 yo RHP Ping-Hseu Chen for 60k. Chen is reportedly returning from injury and has good upside. Heard this before today, so not sure if he signed before July 2 deadline.

[dazindiansfanuk]

Dominican SS Grofy Cruz signed for $400k.

Ben Badler (BA) says:

Cruz, a 16-year-old righthanded hitter, is 6-foot-4, 195 pounds and flashes solid raw power and arm strength, though he should move over to third base quickly and will have to continue to make progress in the field. Cruz trained at La Academia.

[dazindiansfanuk]

The Indians have signed Dominican corner outfielder Hector Caro for $1.1 million.

Cleveland appears to have strayed significantly from the industry consensus in its evaluation of Caro, a player several teams did not consider to be one of the top prospects in Latin America and was not ranked among the Top 20 international prospects for July 2. While Caro's bonus is surprising based on his scouting reports from several organizations, sources had told Baseball America before July 2 that the Indians were expected to give him a seven-figure bonus.

Caro, a 16-year-old righthanded hitter, has a projectable 6-foot-2, 185-pound frame and has flashed raw power in batting practice, but his swing will need improvement and he's had trouble hitting in games. His speed and arm strength will likely limit him to left field. Caro trained with Ivan Noboa, who last year pulled off a $4.95 million bonus for Nomar Mazara with the Rangers in another deal that few in the industry felt was commensurate with his talent level.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/pro ... 1-million/

[petes999]

And, here you would have thought signing bonuses would have gone down like the draft. Yet, Cleveland is spending more on the first day than ever before. You would have thought they would have been more patient and left money for those that fell through the cracks.

[homerawayfromhome]

The Hashimoto signing and Chen signings occurred before July 2 and don't count against the Intl spending pool.

As of right now the Tribe has spent $2,325,000.
The Tribe has $575,000 remaining in the pool. The Tribe can also sign 6 players for $50,000 ea. and also go 4.9 % over (or $142,100) without penalty.

I actually like the aggressive approach by the Tribe. Every team is looking at spending at or near the same amount and eventually teams will be looking at guys trying to out wait other players. Simply put there could be some players who get signed for less than they would be willing to sign for otherwise bc they may be afraid teams will spend themselves out.

[OhioBaseball]

And, here you would have thought signing bonuses would have gone down like the draft. Yet, Cleveland is spending more on the first day than ever before. You would have thought they would have been more patient and left money for those that fell through the cracks.

In defense of the Indians, I think a lot of these international signings were pretty much done before the signing period began. We saw a lot of guys get signed on the first day. Also, the signing bonuses have gone down. The Rangers spent over $8MM on just two guys last year, for perspective. The new rules have significantly cut down on bonuses.

Also, I'm not shy about criticizing Indians draft picks, but I think BA's criticism of the signing could be a bit much. This guy is 16 years old and while there's a "consensus" about Caro, there's undoubtedly a high standard deviation for scouts opinions about 16 year olds, that otherwise would be sophomores or juniors in HS in the US. I'm glad the Indians put money out there on these guys, even though they didnt sign any of the guys I wanted. I have limited experience following high school prospects, but it seems as though the top HS prospects as sophomores or juniors often fall back to the class by the time the draft rolls around, as the guys that are slower to physically mature improve their tools and skills. Lance McCullers, I believe, was the top guy in the most recent class when he was 16, but others caught up to him by the time he was 18. There's just a lot of that can change during the teenage years with athletes.

[petes999]

And, here you would have thought signing bonuses would have gone down like the draft. Yet, Cleveland is spending more on the first day than ever before. You would have thought they would have been more patient and left money for those that fell through the cracks.

In defense of the Indians, I think a lot of these international signings were pretty much done before the signing period began. We saw a lot of guys get signed on the first day. Also, the signing bonuses have gone down. The Rangers spent over $8MM on just two guys last year, for perspective. The new rules have significantly cut down on bonuses.

Also, I'm not shy about criticizing Indians draft picks, but I think BA's criticism of the signing could be a bit much. This guy is 16 years old and while there's a "consensus" about Caro, there's undoubtedly a high standard deviation for scouts opinions about 16 year olds, that otherwise would be sophomores or juniors in HS in the US. I'm glad the Indians put money out there on these guys, even though they didnt sign any of the guys I wanted. I have limited experience following high school prospects, but it seems as though the top HS prospects as sophomores or juniors often fall back to the class by the time the draft rolls around, as the guys that are slower to physically mature improve their tools and skills. Lance McCullers, I believe, was the top guy in the most recent class when he was 16, but others caught up to him by the time he was 18. There's just a lot of that can change during the teenage years with athletes.

Just curious that only 4 other top 20 signings got over $1.1 million.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/pro ... s-tracker/

My point was Indians spent just as much as previous but other teams came down. Yet, per your point, would Indians been better getting 4-5 20-40 type rank players at 250k once market was set than bidding $1.1 million for one player not seen as a top tier talent based on what they paid in past for similar type talent?

[homerawayfromhome]

Personally, I'm not overly concerned about over spending on Hector Caro. Apparently, the Tribe felt it necessary to get it done. Who knows another club could have been in on him too. As for consensus, we are talking about 16 yo kids that are still developing. In 5 yrs what if Caro is a top 10 prospect.
I see the point the Tribe over paid (x's 2) by the sound of it and it could have had money to pay out on others, at what point do we fans over analyze everything the club does? If the Tribe didn't sign the kid many fans would be saying they were cheap.
If I recall correctly, Dorssys Paulino wasn't a top 20 prospect either, signed for similar and has posted some great looking numbers thus far.
My real point in posting the actuall numbers in my previous post is the Tribe still has money to spend. There are still talented kids out there and I'm sure the Tribe lands several more players and maybe a pitcher or two as well.

[jellis]

Paulino was the 14th best and extremely well thought of, they could have gotten 2 top 20 guys for that much money. Never seen more than a million given to a guy who no one seemed to know about before and on top of that is a limited athlete. If he does not develop power then he really is a waste, because of can only LF or 1B just a very wood signing to me

[homerawayfromhome]

I get the fact the Tribe could likely had 2 very good players for the ($) price of Hector Caro. These kids are only 16 and signed based on projection. Apparently, they felt Caro was a must have...and would likely develop into a pure power hitter who would add to the system.
I'd never heard of him, but my international players exposure is fairly limited. There's just not a tremendous amout of coverage on these guys.
Hopefully Caro turns into a RF/LF/DH type with RH power.

[OhioBaseball]

And, here you would have thought signing bonuses would have gone down like the draft. Yet, Cleveland is spending more on the first day than ever before. You would have thought they would have been more patient and left money for those that fell through the cracks.

In defense of the Indians, I think a lot of these international signings were pretty much done before the signing period began. We saw a lot of guys get signed on the first day. Also, the signing bonuses have gone down. The Rangers spent over $8MM on just two guys last year, for perspective. The new rules have significantly cut down on bonuses.

Also, I'm not shy about criticizing Indians draft picks, but I think BA's criticism of the signing could be a bit much. This guy is 16 years old and while there's a "consensus" about Caro, there's undoubtedly a high standard deviation for scouts opinions about 16 year olds, that otherwise would be sophomores or juniors in HS in the US. I'm glad the Indians put money out there on these guys, even though they didnt sign any of the guys I wanted. I have limited experience following high school prospects, but it seems as though the top HS prospects as sophomores or juniors often fall back to the class by the time the draft rolls around, as the guys that are slower to physically mature improve their tools and skills. Lance McCullers, I believe, was the top guy in the most recent class when he was 16, but others caught up to him by the time he was 18. There's just a lot of that can change during the teenage years with athletes.

Just curious that only 4 other top 20 signings got over $1.1 million.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/pro ... s-tracker/

My point was Indians spent just as much as previous but other teams came down. Yet, per your point, would Indians been better getting 4-5 20-40 type rank players at 250k once market was set than bidding $1.1 million for one player not seen as a top tier talent based on what they paid in past for similar type talent?

I'm not really criticizing what the Indians did regarding Caro. I really wanted Rijo, but I'm over it. As a fan, it's more exciting to get the big dollar guy. I'm just glad the Indians are investing.

I do think that a pool of lower priced talents is the way to go when you're signing 16, 17 year olds. A 16 year old, 6'5", long limbed, loose-armed LHP like Jose Castillo (Venezuela, BA's #6 prospect in this class) for $1MM is enticing -- b/c Castillo is what good pitching prospects look like.

I'd probably prefer spending $200k on five different pitching prospects that are like 6'2" with nice arm actions that throw mid 80s, compared to the one million dollar 6'5" guy throwing upper 80s, low 90s. Teams have a difficult enough time successfully choosing 18-year old HS pitching prospects; it's even harder with 16 and 17 year olds. I had a good relationship with a professor back when I was in school that studied growth patterns of pre-teen and teenage athletes. Not everyone develops physically at the same time, and coordination can come at different times for different athletes. So basically, I'd prefer not to pay up for the guy that developed earlier than others. Now, part of scouting is identifying talents that have more physical development ahead of them than others, but when you're looking at guys 16 and 17 years old there's often stuff you can't see b/c its not there yet.

[jellis]

And, here you would have thought signing bonuses would have gone down like the draft. Yet, Cleveland is spending more on the first day than ever before. You would have thought they would have been more patient and left money for those that fell through the cracks.

In defense of the Indians, I think a lot of these international signings were pretty much done before the signing period began. We saw a lot of guys get signed on the first day. Also, the signing bonuses have gone down. The Rangers spent over $8MM on just two guys last year, for perspective. The new rules have significantly cut down on bonuses.

Also, I'm not shy about criticizing Indians draft picks, but I think BA's criticism of the signing could be a bit much. This guy is 16 years old and while there's a "consensus" about Caro, there's undoubtedly a high standard deviation for scouts opinions about 16 year olds, that otherwise would be sophomores or juniors in HS in the US. I'm glad the Indians put money out there on these guys, even though they didnt sign any of the guys I wanted. I have limited experience following high school prospects, but it seems as though the top HS prospects as sophomores or juniors often fall back to the class by the time the draft rolls around, as the guys that are slower to physically mature improve their tools and skills. Lance McCullers, I believe, was the top guy in the most recent class when he was 16, but others caught up to him by the time he was 18. There's just a lot of that can change during the teenage years with athletes.

Just curious that only 4 other top 20 signings got over $1.1 million.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/pro ... s-tracker/

My point was Indians spent just as much as previous but other teams came down. Yet, per your point, would Indians been better getting 4-5 20-40 type rank players at 250k once market was set than bidding $1.1 million for one player not seen as a top tier talent based on what they paid in past for similar type talent?

I'm not really criticizing what the Indians did regarding Caro. I really wanted Rijo, but I'm over it. As a fan, it's more exciting to get the big dollar guy. I'm just glad the Indians are investing.

I do think that a pool of lower priced talents is the way to go when you're signing 16, 17 year olds. A 16 year old, 6'5", long limbed, loose-armed LHP like Jose Castillo (Venezuela, BA's #6 prospect in this class) for $1MM is enticing -- b/c Castillo is what good pitching prospects look like.

I'd probably prefer spending $200k on five different pitching prospects that are like 6'2" with nice arm actions that throw mid 80s, compared to the one million dollar 6'5" guy throwing upper 80s, low 90s. Teams have a difficult enough time successfully choosing 18-year old HS pitching prospects; it's even harder with 16 and 17 year olds. I had a good relationship with a professor back when I was in school that studied growth patterns of pre-teen and teenage athletes. Not everyone develops physically at the same time, and coordination can come at different times for different athletes. So basically, I'd prefer not to pay up for the guy that developed earlier than others. Now, part of scouting is identifying talents that have more physical development ahead of them than others, but when you're looking at guys 16 and 17 years old there's often stuff you can't see b/c its not there yet.

well summed and I agree, the hit rate on the high bonus babies is awful

[OhioBaseball]

As it turns out, one of my favorite prospects of this class, Wendell Rijo, tore his ACL before July 2nd. The Red Sox got him for $625k. No telling how he'll recover, but that had to be really tough for Rijo.

For those interested in this stuff, a movie was just released two weeks ago, Ballplayer: Pelotero. It's a documentary about the process of being a dominican prospect and going through the signing process. They follow Miguel Sano (a stud prospect) and another prospect, Jean Carlos Batista. It's short and a lot of things aren't presented, but it was a really good watch. It's pretty interesting from a socioeconomic standpoint, and you can't help but wonder about all of these things these Dominican (and Venezuelan) prospects go through just to get signed -- stories we'll never hear about. There's another book called "Stealing Lives" that covers this stuff, which is a good read, although a decade old now, and highly critical of the process -- its a bit academic.

Interesting in the Sano case b/c there were some concerns about his true age. As brought to light in the movie, some parties have a vested interest in creating suspicion about the true identity of these players. Fairness be damned.

Pelotero is not in theatres in most cities, but is available on demand with most cable providers.