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2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:22 pm

Have to confess Lowe was not on my radar at all. Not sure he would have been my first choice but any SP in the price range had lots of warts. One year at $5M seems like an awfully good bridge to 2013 to me but Lowe has his risks. We have the potential return of Carrasco in 2013 along with the hopeful return to health of some high ceiling prospects this year. Best of all, we have Gomez, another ground ball pitcher, available in case of hiccups.

It has occurred to me that the biggest beneficiary of this trade might be Hanahan with an opportunity for Donald. Infield defense might be a great aid to our current pitching staff and Hanahan and Donald appear superior to Chisenhall at this time to me. Donald looks to be considerably better defensively than Kipnis at 2B to me and could earn some playing time there. If course, stranger things have happened than maturing defense from prospects the caliber of Kipnis and Chisenhall.

They have spent $5M of their payroll budget and it looks to me as if they might have Cuddyer as an option or even a tandem of Upton and Doumit. And the Indians still have their best trade chips available. IF this deal is an indication, there might be more surprises in store.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby artgold » Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:39 pm

I have no problem at all with the deal. A rotation of Jimenez, Masterson, Tomlin, Carmona and Lowe is fairly competitive.

Cheap bridge to the future, if he falters (and I don't think he will) we can always give someone else a shot.

Lowe pitched pretty well through August, kind of fell apart in September. In 19 out of 34 starts last season he gave up 3 or less earned runs. Not bad for the end of the rotation.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:55 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:If you look beyond his ERA you'll see that he wasn't so bad. I think you jump to a lot of quick conclusions. Let's see what happens before we make judgements.

As for the deal, can't say I hate it. I think it's a solid pick up. Probably better than a few FA pitchers we might've targeted.


Exactly. He had solid FIP and xFIP. His K-Rate went up, his groundball rate went up, and his HR-rate down. Only negative was really his walk rate jumping up. He's probably got one more year in him. Personally like the deal. don't love it, but a decent #3/4 (depending where Carmona slides...if he's still here).

Personally not sold on Tomlin as I've stated before. Really wonder if the Tribe isn't either. Had 2 great months then fell off. Gets you innings, but that HR-rate was ugly. League may have just caught up to him. Doesn't walk guys though so can still be a #5 I guess.


I've seen your comments about Tomlin 'falling off'.. and am not sure what you are pointing to... Tomlin made 26 starts over five months (In July, he had 6 starts. 5 starts in the other four months he pitched) and pitched about 32-36 innings each month.. his walk totals were 8, 2, 2, 4 and 5 from April to August by month.. His HR rates were 5, 5, 4, 4, and 6 by month. His only real "rough patch" was the last start in May and the first three starts in June.. Otherwise, he was pretty consistent in just about any area you look..<shrugs>
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:58 pm

It has occurred to me that the biggest beneficiary of this trade might be Hanahan with an opportunity for Donald. Infield defense might be a great aid to our current pitching staff and Hanahan and Donald appear superior to Chisenhall at this time to me. Donald looks to be considerably better defensively than Kipnis at 2B to me and could earn some playing time there.

+1 Yep.. if they're both here... I've seen the same thing.. I love Kipnis' hustle and energy.. and Chiz's arm.. but there is something about the defense of both Hoover and Donald that makes me want the ball hit their way when it matters...
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby daingean » Mon Oct 31, 2011 7:37 pm

danh8 wrote:.

Go ask some Braves fans about how much they loved watching Lowe pitch last year ... in the AL it will get worse. An ERA approaching the 6's, vet leader or not, doesn't contribute to winning a pennant in one of the few "window" years we have to hit big. Won't do thew trick, folks.



Let me say that while I'm an Indians fan first and foremost, I am also a Braves fan. I know many Braves fans that are happy to jettison Lowe. I am happy the Braves got rid of him because they have better pitching prospects in Minor, Tehran, Delgado and Vizcaino plus Medlen coming back from TJ surgery.

Now I saw several of Lowe's games this year. He can still get batters out in this league. In fact, he usually is good for 3 - 4 innings of quality work but then he hit a wall and let in runs in bunches. I know he's 38 and will be 39 next year. Maybe he has lost it. Maybe the DUI thing really hurt him mentally. My guess is we will get something useful in maybe a 12-10 pitcher out of the 5th spot. The concern is that he won't be an inning eater.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Oct 31, 2011 9:21 pm

I'm not really concerned with Lowe, he's not a difference maker and the fact is a young kid could have posted the same numbers Lowe likely will. What Lowe offers is a veteran pitcher to mentor the young arms at a reasonable price although the Tribe did give up Jones he looked like nothing more than another Loogy. Its pretty much a wash to me to consider the arms the tribe could have signed for 5 mil.

I've read alot of Braves fans are thrilled to dump Lowe on the Indians. Frank Wren is such a genius he got Lowe at a break even record w/l. Wren ended up paying 55 mil to Lowe over 3 yrs sheer genius. :nea: While the tribe is on the hook for 5 mil.

I got to admit CA has tried to be creative to bring this club up to par for contention. I seriously doubt he's done, but this creativity could lead to being too cute.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby jellis » Mon Oct 31, 2011 11:10 pm

daingean wrote:
danh8 wrote:.

Go ask some Braves fans about how much they loved watching Lowe pitch last year ... in the AL it will get worse. An ERA approaching the 6's, vet leader or not, doesn't contribute to winning a pennant in one of the few "window" years we have to hit big. Won't do thew trick, folks.



Let me say that while I'm an Indians fan first and foremost, I am also a Braves fan. I know many Braves fans that are happy to jettison Lowe. I am happy the Braves got rid of him because they have better pitching prospects in Minor, Tehran, Delgado and Vizcaino plus Medlen coming back from TJ surgery.

Now I saw several of Lowe's games this year. He can still get batters out in this league. In fact, he usually is good for 3 - 4 innings of quality work but then he hit a wall and let in runs in bunches. I know he's 38 and will be 39 next year. Maybe he has lost it. Maybe the DUI thing really hurt him mentally. My guess is we will get something useful in maybe a 12-10 pitcher out of the 5th spot. The concern is that he won't be an inning eater.



I think DUI are a big deal, it weighs on guys. I mean look at the effect on Choo. It is a public embarrassment for them, that gets thrown back in their face a lot. Its a real issue. Lowe, is a solid innings eater, put him in the back and let him work. Its a walk year for him, add in that stats show bad luck. ATL had a very bad D. Some on on here mentioned Millwood, its a bad comp Lowe is a completely different type of pitcher who thanks to his years in the pen has a lot less innings over the years. For 5 mil you aren't going to find a better arm. I think they looked at the FA arms and thought here is a cheap guy, if he fails we have depth. Once the market is dry for arms, then we can come in and offer arms in deals. In a way it helps corner a market.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby ironmike » Tue Nov 01, 2011 7:33 am

According to Orel Hersheiser and Rick Sutcliffe, In most cases when sinker ball pitchers get the ball up in the zone and their pitches flatten they get hammered. This usually happens when a pitcher gets underneath the ball at the release point causing the ball to run up and in. Hitters get real good looks at these types of pitches.

Watching Lowe on the MLB Network highlights this morning seems like Lowe's mechanics might be out of sync. If that is the case, veteran pitchers know how to make adjustments and the Indians staff coaching can assist him. Let's hope Lowe can get his good sinker back. If he does, Lowe will help.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Nov 01, 2011 8:10 am

Lowe was 5-0 w/ a 1+ era in Sept. 2010... A huge push for the Braves playoff run. Turn the clock to 2011 and Lowe started well but struggled down the stretch. Word is as his sinker began to fade he started to his slider more and was actually returning to previous form with it. The DUI was an embarrassment and looming over his head, no doubt it was a distraction.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby ClevelandBlues » Tue Nov 01, 2011 9:03 am

I have to say I really did not see this one coming, but I think it is a good pickup. I don't necessarily think he needs to come here and be an innings eating type of pitcher. I would be happy with five good innings every five days. I think the rotation really needed a veteran presence, and the price was right. I hope they do not rush to trade Gomez or McCallister though, having depth is always a good thing. It seems we have a solid pitching staff going into 2012, which is always a nice thing to have done the first week of the offseason. We could probably even afford to trade a reliever or two.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:47 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:If you look beyond his ERA you'll see that he wasn't so bad. I think you jump to a lot of quick conclusions. Let's see what happens before we make judgements.

As for the deal, can't say I hate it. I think it's a solid pick up. Probably better than a few FA pitchers we might've targeted.


Exactly. He had solid FIP and xFIP. His K-Rate went up, his groundball rate went up, and his HR-rate down. Only negative was really his walk rate jumping up. He's probably got one more year in him. Personally like the deal. don't love it, but a decent #3/4 (depending where Carmona slides...if he's still here).

Personally not sold on Tomlin as I've stated before. Really wonder if the Tribe isn't either. Had 2 great months then fell off. Gets you innings, but that HR-rate was ugly. League may have just caught up to him. Doesn't walk guys though so can still be a #5 I guess.


I've seen your comments about Tomlin 'falling off'.. and am not sure what you are pointing to... Tomlin made 26 starts over five months (In July, he had 6 starts. 5 starts in the other four months he pitched) and pitched about 32-36 innings each month.. his walk totals were 8, 2, 2, 4 and 5 from April to August by month.. His HR rates were 5, 5, 4, 4, and 6 by month. His only real "rough patch" was the last start in May and the first three starts in June.. Otherwise, he was pretty consistent in just about any area you look..<shrugs>


Think you're confusing HR-rate with total HRs there. But either way, shows how bad he was in that category. Yeah not in Arroyo territory, but still too high.

As far as what I was pointing to in regards to Tomlin falling off....his ERA from June 1st on was 5.24 (higher than Carmona's for what it's worth). Again, he was pretty bad other than April and May. As far as #4/5 guys go he's serviceable thanks to his low walk rate and ability to get you innings, so has a lot of value (not saying he doesn't). Do like his FIP, xFIP, and such....but I have my doubts that he'll be able to duplicate his .253 BABIP for a year.

Again, nothing wrong with Tomlin at the back of your rotation....but the league started to catch up to him, and would not be surprised if we've seen the best Tomlin will ever be. Would be interseting though to see how Tomlin would do in a pitchers park/the NL....which is one reason I think you have to at least gauge his value this winter.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Nov 01, 2011 2:46 pm

petes999 wrote:For me, $5 million (or $6 or so) would have been better spent on an OF for Duncan/Sizemore replacement. Yes, we now have an excess of starting pitching in Gomez, McAllister and Huff. However, you need one or two of them as your spare starter as Lowe at 38 is going to break-down. Plus, to use them, what is going to be the return as you need someone young with no salary due to $5 mill (most of our spare $$$) for Lowe ... which is going to cost more than an average middle-aged OF who would be an upgrade over Duncan.


Why does the saved Grady money have to be used only on a replacement? The saved money is not the ONLY money available this offseason. So while they spent $5M of the $8.5M saved on Grady, it is not like they have just $3.5M left to spend this offseason. Right now they have less than $30M committed in payroll....and with arbitration and min contracts it is probably somewhere around $45M (rough guess). They have not said what payroll would be, but that means that they potentially have at least $10-20M (or possibly more) to spend.

They were going to sign or trade for a vet starter this offseason either way. So they got a durable, proven pitch for $5M. I won't say it is a difference maker deal or a great trade, but it certainly fills the need they wanted to address.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Nov 01, 2011 3:00 pm

daingean wrote:Let me say that while I'm an Indians fan first and foremost, I am also a Braves fan. I know many Braves fans that are happy to jettison Lowe. I am happy the Braves got rid of him because they have better pitching prospects in Minor, Tehran, Delgado and Vizcaino plus Medlen coming back from TJ surgery.


Braves fans should be happy, they have three very good pitching prospects to insert that are ready.

The Indians don't.

It would be different if say Pomeranz were still here and was ready. Then yeah, you don't go get Lowe.

But the options are Gomez, Huff, and McAllister, hardly the caliber of pitching talent of the Braves three prospects. I can't think of very many Indians fans chomping at the bit for any of the three to get a spot in the rotation next year and happy to jettison any of our starters.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby GhostofTedCox » Tue Nov 01, 2011 3:10 pm

TonyIPI wrote:

But the options are Gomez, Huff, and McAllister, hardly the caliber of pitching talent of the Braves three prospects. I can't think of very many Indians fans chomping at the bit for any of the three to get a spot in the rotation next year and happy to jettison any of our starters.


I wasn't looking forward to Tomlin either when he got some starts. But now I'm quite satisfied. As long as you don't expect FOR stuff, and with good bullpen support many of the candidates could do a good job. I see most of the SP (except for the first two) as almost interchangeable parts. Plus don't forget the improvement in Huff and Barnes. I would consider moving one for the right deal. But that's just me.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Nov 01, 2011 3:41 pm

TonyIPI wrote:
daingean wrote:But the options are Gomez, Huff, and McAllister, hardly the caliber of pitching talent of the Braves three prospects. I can't think of very many Indians fans chomping at the bit for any of the three to get a spot in the rotation next year and happy to jettison any of our starters.


The posters on Cleveland.dumb are of the opinion that Fausto Carmona's option will be throwing good money after bad. The stats support their views.. but the reality of baseball and it's vagueries.. do not..
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby petes999 » Tue Nov 01, 2011 4:55 pm

TonyIPI wrote:
petes999 wrote:For me, $5 million (or $6 or so) would have been better spent on an OF for Duncan/Sizemore replacement. Yes, we now have an excess of starting pitching in Gomez, McAllister and Huff. However, you need one or two of them as your spare starter as Lowe at 38 is going to break-down. Plus, to use them, what is going to be the return as you need someone young with no salary due to $5 mill (most of our spare $$$) for Lowe ... which is going to cost more than an average middle-aged OF who would be an upgrade over Duncan.


Why does the saved Grady money have to be used only on a replacement? The saved money is not the ONLY money available this offseason. So while they spent $5M of the $8.5M saved on Grady, it is not like they have just $3.5M left to spend this offseason. Right now they have less than $30M committed in payroll....and with arbitration and min contracts it is probably somewhere around $45M (rough guess). They have not said what payroll would be, but that means that they potentially have at least $10-20M (or possibly more) to spend.

They were going to sign or trade for a vet starter this offseason either way. So they got a durable, proven pitch for $5M. I won't say it is a difference maker deal or a great trade, but it certainly fills the need they wanted to address.


Didn't realize they had so much room $10 to $20 million. Going off of something you wrote earlier "It is not a lot to work with, but should allow the team to be creative in both trades and free agent signings this offseason to help improve the team." Just thought that with $4.5 million addded for Jiminez and $5 million for Lowe (even with Grady savings) that there wasn't much room if they didn't increase payroll that much (that is until Hafner comes off next year). Didn't realize it is still $10 million to $20 million after arbitration is factored in. Thought Masterson, Perez and Cabrera would add most of it with arbitration plus hopefully locking up Cabrera to a contract through 2014 by giving him a bit more, leaving just Choo as a FA in 2014 (and Smith/Raffie).

So I am glad there is room ... still not really happy with a 38 year old starter - just have visions of Finely dancing in my head. I am usually willing to throw out a rookie to prove his strips unless a spot is given to someone coming off of injury and had a higher upside than an aging Lowe. Yet, I understand that they just want him to cover for Carrasco until he returns hopefully at the beginning of 2013.

But, as for the possibility for trade ... what do we really have? You mention the abundance of starters with McFarland, Adams, Packer, Gomez, Huff, McAllister -- yet what can average prospects give you? I see McFarland and Adams being most valuable ... yet Adams woudld be selling low as people aren't convinced he is a starter. Thus, best to hold onto him. The most value we have is as a reliever in R. Perez or Sipp/Pestano -- yet Shapiro won't allow that to happen as he values a strong consistent pen. Just wonder what really we can get for an outfielder which is a bigger need than upgrade to Lowe ...
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby daingean » Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:05 pm

petes999 wrote:.

But, as for the possibility for trade ... what do we really have? You mention the abundance of starters with McFarland, Adams, Packer, Gomez, Huff, McAllister -- yet what can average prospects give you? I see McFarland and Adams being most valuable ... yet Adams woudld be selling low as people aren't convinced he is a starter. Thus, best to hold onto him. The most value we have is as a reliever in R. Perez or Sipp/Pestano -- yet Shapiro won't allow that to happen as he values a strong consistent pen. Just wonder what really we can get for an outfielder which is a bigger need than upgrade to Lowe ...


I for one like having a strong bullpen. I think in this day and age the BP is a key ingredient in having a contending team because more games are won in the 7th-9th innings.

I also think that the Braves only won 1 World Series because the only year they actually had a good bullpen was '95. :s_mad
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby petes999 » Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:37 pm

daingean wrote:
petes999 wrote:.

But, as for the possibility for trade ... what do we really have? You mention the abundance of starters with McFarland, Adams, Packer, Gomez, Huff, McAllister -- yet what can average prospects give you? I see McFarland and Adams being most valuable ... yet Adams woudld be selling low as people aren't convinced he is a starter. Thus, best to hold onto him. The most value we have is as a reliever in R. Perez or Sipp/Pestano -- yet Shapiro won't allow that to happen as he values a strong consistent pen. Just wonder what really we can get for an outfielder which is a bigger need than upgrade to Lowe ...


I for one like having a strong bullpen. I think in this day and age the BP is a key ingredient in having a contending team because more games are won in the 7th-9th innings.

I also think that the Braves only won 1 World Series because the only year they actually had a good bullpen was '95. :s_mad


Agree with a strong pen ... would look at trading a Smith or Hermann, yet they won't get much. And, if people aren't excited about Gomez, Huff or McAllister in the 5th spot, what team would??? Thus, what does McFarland, Packer or Adams get you in a trade? We got to throw in (was going to say Lindor or Howard ... but they aren't eligible yet) ... so a Wolters .... not much else unless in the top 5 to get a legit player other than a Rodriquez (Luigi or Ronnie) or other Latin player signed over a year ago.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby danh8 » Wed Nov 02, 2011 4:35 pm

Hopefully, we can somehow motivate Carmona to, at some point, begin to take conditioning seriously. He's gotten to where he's so fat and overweight ... It would be interesting to see how much better he would be able to perform if he wasn't perpetually fat, overweight, and just out of shape.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Nov 02, 2011 7:38 pm

danh8 wrote:Hopefully, we can somehow motivate Carmona to, at some point, begin to take conditioning seriously. He's gotten to where he's so fat and overweight ... It would be interesting to see how much better he would be able to perform if he wasn't perpetually fat, overweight, and just out of shape.


Carmona could definitely stand for some more conditioning, but other than that nose dive at 1B, he's been healthy, so don't see conditioning/weight as his issue (CC was overweight, David Wells, etc and they pitched fine). It's mechanics and what's between Carmona's head. Dont' think losing some weight will be the magic pill that fixes those things.


Will be interesting to see how Carmona pitches this year.....as the expectations seem low for him, especially with us adding another vet in Lowe. When Carmona first came up he was a top prospect...who bombed when put in the closers role. 2007 he had no expectations and as great. Struggled in 2008 (hurt though) and was suppose to bounce back in 2009 but didn't. Again in 2010 with no expectations...makes the All-Star game. This year was our #1 starter and just couldn't find any consistency.

I really think putting him lower in the pitching order will do more for him than losing some weight....though if he were to come into camp 10 lbs lighter, i would not complain :drinks:
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:47 pm

Tribe gives the RSux & Cubs permission to talk to Sandy about Mgr. jobs.

Does this open up job for Sarby with the big club? :drinks:
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby JP_Frost » Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:53 pm

Rocky55 wrote:Tribe gives the RSux & Cubs permission to talk to Sandy about Mgr. jobs.

Does this open up job for Sarby with the big club? :drinks:


Meh. I hope Sandy stays. That said, I do hope Sarbaugh gets the promotion if Alomar leaves.
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Re: 2011 Cleveland Indians Comment Thread

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:08 pm

JP_Frost wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:Tribe gives the RSux & Cubs permission to talk to Sandy about Mgr. jobs.

Does this open up job for Sarby with the big club? :drinks:


Meh. I hope Sandy stays. That said, I do hope Sarbaugh gets the promotion if Alomar leaves.


While I'd love to see Sarby up too....my guess is if Alomar leaves (wouldn't be too upset if he did, was a lousy 1B coach last year), we'd add some kind of former catcher as a coach. I'd love though to see Steve Smith off 3B and in the dugout (or simply fired).
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