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The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

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The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby ironmike » Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:34 am

With the combined recources we have, ML players, money and minor league prospects the Indians face a huge task in making up 15 games on the Tigers. Even if they improve by 5-10 games in 2012 they DON'T make the playoffs.

Does the team have enough impact hitters among the young players currently on the roster? If you look at all the playoff teams and our great teams in the past we do not match up with position player run production. Also, we need to improve our depth outside of our Triple A roster.

What kind of moves is it going to take to bring in the type of players that will allow us to compete and win the A.L. Central division?

It seems we have 4 ways to improve and it will probably take a combination of all four ...

1. Impact free agent (s)

2. Player for player trades

3. Trading more prospects for established ML players

4. Continued improvement from our young position players, which is an unknown

Also, they'll need to use the Carmona and Sizemore allocated money to improve the team, unless ownership is prepared to increase the payroll to the $80 million mark. They do have arbitration cases coming up and they'll want to sign long term deals with certain players, so an increase in payroll will be needed to service these areas.

IMO retaining Carmona and Sizemore will limit what the Indians need to do in the off-season. Sizemore has no trade value if he was resigned, Carmona might, but only if another team is trying to move a player coming off a bad year.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Bearcatbob » Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:03 am

Ok - let's look at the lineup assuming everyone is healthy.

1b = TBD
2b = Kipnis
SS = ACab
3b = Chis
C = Santana
LF = TBD
CF = Brantley (Carrera is making me ill watching him play center)
RF = Choo

In my mind there is no room for Brantely and Sizemore. Therefore, I would not sign Sizemore and use the money elsewhere. So - IMO we need two new players for the day to day.

Relief Pitching - Durban is gone - everyone else will be back.

SP = Is suddenly a mess as well. Ubaldo and Masterson and three days of rain? Hopefully Tomlin is solid and I think Genmar can play. Carmona IMO needs to stay. The group has the potential of three solid arms (Carmona?) and good prospects for others. Do we sign a veteran pitcher?

So - three adds needed? Wow - big challenge. Losing Carasco is a big negative.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby ironmike » Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:20 am

Bearcat Bob, very little impact production in your lineup from 3B, 1B and LF. Three huge holes. Brantley IMO is a big key to this teams offense. He needs to improve his ability to get on base and be more destructive on the bases and, most importantly, he needs to score at least 110 runs as the lead off hitter and lead this offense. Staying healthy will also help.

Brantley is considered a core player by the Indians, but he'll need and should improve with more experience. Right now he has less than one year ML experience.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Bearcatbob » Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:43 am

ironmike wrote:Bearcat Bob, very little impact production in your lineup from 3B, 1B and LF. Three huge holes. Brantley IMO is a big key to this teams offense. He needs to improve his ability to get on base and be more destructive on the bases and, most importantly, he needs to score at least 110 runs as the lead off hitter and lead this offense. Staying healthy will also help.

Brantley is considered a core player by the Indians, but he'll need and should improve with more experience. Right now he has less than one year ML experience.


Mike - is it not hard to define what the impact of TBD will be? Is that not the goal - fill TBD with quality names?
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby daingean » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:06 am

I think you are selling Chis short when you say little impact from 3B. The guy was a rookie and started very slowly but he did pick his BA to above .250 by the end of the season. He also showed xbase power.

As far as trading prospects for established players, I don't want to go there. This team for it to be competitive needs guys that can be productive at below league average salaries (i.e. pre ARB II level). Chis and Kipnis being in the lineup for the next 2 years give us that. We can use that savings to get us the RH power hitter we need and also to keep our BP which I think is really the key to our success this year. 15 games? Yes when you consider that we lost like 10 straight to the Tiggers. Split those and it's only an 8 game deficit and with a healthier team we can make that up.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:29 am

The Indians are heading into the 2011 off season with a pretty decent core of players. The four areas for consideration include the starting pitching staff, the bullpen, the every day position players and the bench. The Indians front office has been wise in its use of resources. The level of need for each area is presented as follows

(5)For Starting Pitching, four of the five spots are clearly defined:

1. Justin Masterson
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Josh Tomlin
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Jeanmar Gomez / Zach McAllister / David Huff / Mitch Talbot

Need Level: Low, but you can never have enough starting pitching.

(7)The Bullpen: Five of the seven spots are clearly defined:

CL Chris Perez
SU Vinnie Pestano
SU Joe Smith
RP Tony Sipp
RP Rafael Perez
RP Nick Hagadone / Frank Herrmann / Josh Judy / Corey Kluber / Zach Putnam

Need Level: Low. There are ten arms for seven spots.. and they can all pitch. The likelihood is that Nick Hagadone will be put into a "long man" role as this engenders the ability to 'stretch' him out if and/or when it is determined what his future role may be.

(9)Every Day Players: The Indians have at least six of the nine every day starting spots definitively decided

DH Travis Hafner
C Carlos Santana
1B Matt LaPorta
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
RF Shin-soo Choo
CF Grady Sizemore
LF Michael Brantley

Need Level: Medium: It would be nice to reduce the left-handed-ness of the lineup, but, if a player can hit, be that as a RH'er or a LH'er, then it's more about style than substance. There seems to be a lot of disdain expressed about first baseman, Matt LaPorta. The Indians brass was quoted prior to the start of the 2011 season that they wanted to see what they have in Matt LaPorta. Well, the bottom line, from 2010 to 2011, Matt LaPorta raised his BA by more than 25 points, fairly closely maintained his OBP and raised his slugging percentage by nearly 50 points. In 2012, the splitting of time at 1B, should, imho, be reduced or eliminated. Carlos Santana is NOT a 1B. He is a C. If the Indians want to have Carlos' bat in the lineup, it should be as a DH against tough lefties, and certainly not in place of Matt LaPorta and his need to progress as a ML'er. Regarding the Grady Sizemore spot.. he's here, he has a team option and he's now just getting back to being healthy. A restructuring of his contract could be in the works and would be beneficial to the team. Make no mistake about it, Grady possessed the skills needed to impact the Indians offense. Looking outside the organization may continue, but it should not be as a replacement for Grady. It should be IN ADDITION to Grady.

(3)Bench Players: The Indians too many candidates for this area. The primary players are:

cIF'er: Jack Hannahan
mIF'er: Jason Donald
OF'er: Shelly Duncan, Kosuke Fukudome, Zeke Carrera,
C: Lou Marson

Need: None. Someone is going to be disappointed.

In summary, there aren't a lot of "MUST DO's" for this team. There are some 'may do's" and there may be some opportunities to add an impact bat (e.g. Mike Napoli) or an impact SP.. but, if it doesn't happen, it would not be a shock. One this is very clear, based on the efforts at the trading deadline by the Indians, spending was ABSOLUTELY not an impediment to the acquisition of a player.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby ironmike » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:59 am

GeronimoSon you are a real fan but your response does not address how the team exactly will make up 15 games with the Tigers and get in the playoffs. We need proven bonafide ML players who have done it before. Hope never wins championships.

We need 2-3 more position players who can drive in 100 RBI's each to become a force. Don't see that happening with Kipnis and Chisenhall or Duncan. Those three players would be at the bottom third of a real professional line up. Duncan is only a role player at best.

This team needs a better on base percentage to improve offensively so they can score more runs. Acquiring players who strike out less and walk more would be a good start and more speed never hurts. Plus, our depth needs to be beyond Triple A players.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby jellis » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:48 am

ironmike wrote:GeronimoSon you are a real fan but your response does not address how the team exactly will make up 15 games with the Tigers and get in the playoffs. We need proven bonafide ML players who have done it before. Hope never wins championships.

We need 2-3 more position players who can drive in 100 RBI's each to become a force. Don't see that happening with Kipnis and Chisenhall or Duncan. Those three players would be at the bottom third of a real professional line up. Duncan is only a role player at best.

This team needs a better on base percentage to improve offensively so they can score more runs. Acquiring players who strike out less and walk more would be a good start and more speed never hurts. Plus, our depth needs to be beyond Triple A players.



For the record RBI is the most worthless stat in baseball. If you dont think that CHiz and Kip are not middle of the order bats, then I dont know what you have been watching. I expect b0othof them to improve greatly, that's how this team will improve. a healthy Ubado all year over Talbot is good enough for 5 wins IMO. If and when Kip, Chiz, and others grow and improve that should be good for another 4 to 5. Count in the fact that Detriot was unnaturally healthy, Perralta is good every other year, and the fact that Valverde was also unnaturally good and Detriot is in line for major regression. Frankly 88 wins gets you the division next year. A healthy tribe with, all its parts, and natural improvements gets there
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:14 pm

jellis wrote:
ironmike wrote:GeronimoSon you are a real fan but your response does not address how the team exactly will make up 15 games with the Tigers and get in the playoffs. We need proven bonafide ML players who have done it before. Hope never wins championships.

We need 2-3 more position players who can drive in 100 RBI's each to become a force. Don't see that happening with Kipnis and Chisenhall or Duncan. Those three players would be at the bottom third of a real professional line up. Duncan is only a role player at best.

This team needs a better on base percentage to improve offensively so they can score more runs. Acquiring players who strike out less and walk more would be a good start and more speed never hurts. Plus, our depth needs to be beyond Triple A players.



For the record RBI is the most worthless stat in baseball. If you dont think that CHiz and Kip are not middle of the order bats, then I dont know what you have been watching. I expect b0othof them to improve greatly, that's how this team will improve. a healthy Ubado all year over Talbot is good enough for 5 wins IMO. If and when Kip, Chiz, and others grow and improve that should be good for another 4 to 5. Count in the fact that Detriot was unnaturally healthy, Perralta is good every other year, and the fact that Valverde was also unnaturally good and Detriot is in line for major regression. Frankly 88 wins gets you the division next year. A healthy tribe with, all its parts, and natural improvements gets there


Disagree slightly on RBI being the most worthless stat. Batting average is way more worthless as are wins for a pitcher. Agree that you can't look just at RBIs though. But they do tend to mean you are hitting with runners in scoring position, which the Tribe did well at at times, but really struggled at others.

Yeah I don't see Detroit being this good win total next year either. Throw in Martinez who could miss time at any moment and they could be hurting. Rotation was healthy too mostly and can't see that again. I do think Peralta can/will be as good if not better next year, but rest i agree with. Valverde...man, can't see him being that good again.

Do think you may need 90 wins but agree, a healthy Tribe with the young guys and Ubaldo should be able to get there on their own. We need to win more against the likes of the White Sox and Detroit. Only 36-36 in the central won't cut it next year. That right there is where we need to make up games....o and beat frakin Seattle! lol
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:45 pm

ironmike wrote:GeronimoSon you are a real fan but your response does not address how the team exactly will make up 15 games with the Tigers and get in the playoffs. We need proven bonafide ML players who have done it before. Hope never wins championships.

We need 2-3 more position players who can drive in 100 RBI's each to become a force. Don't see that happening with Kipnis and Chisenhall or Duncan. Those three players would be at the bottom third of a real professional line up. Duncan is only a role player at best.

This team needs a better on base percentage to improve offensively so they can score more runs. Acquiring players who strike out less and walk more would be a good start and more speed never hurts. Plus, our depth needs to be beyond Triple A players.


Without getting into a pissing contest about which stat is more important than another.. The number one stat is team wins.. after that, the wheat and chaff can be separated.. but.. back to the question: Where do the 15 additional wins come from?

From 2010 to 2011.. the Indians got 11 more wins. This was done primarily with young and unproven talent who were substituting for injured players. Well, the injured players are now healthy and they should ADD more to the success of the team than at any time in the last 7 years. Some of the group included:

Lonnie Chisenhall: in 212 ABs was able to contribute 7 HR's, 22 RBI's and score 29 runs. He will be the primary starting 3B and get 550 AB's in 2012. As he has gained in experience, his production has increased at an increasing rate.. or, projecting out, the Indians can expect Lonnie to deliver 22 HR, 75 RBI & score 80 runs.

Jason Kipnis: in 136 AB's was able to contribute 7 HR's, 19 RBI's and score 24 runs. He will be the primary starting 2B and get 550 AB's in 2012. As he gained experience, his production has increased at an increasing rate... or, projecting out, the Indians can expect Jason to deliver 22 HR's, 75 RBI's & score 80 runs.

Shin-soo Choo: was held to 313 AB's in 2011 but was able to contribute 8 HR's, 36 RBI's & scored 37 runs. This was not at all like the Choo that we've come to love and admire. With health, the Indians can expect Choo to deliver 22 HR's, 80 RBI's and score 85 runs..

Do you see a pattern here?.. the Indians have the pieces that are needed to contend. In 2011, the Indians lost the services of their leadoff hitter, their # 3 hitter, their clean up hitter, their # 5 hitter. The loss of those skilled players provided opportunity for the kids to come up to the ML's and find out: They Belong. With health and continued development of the players ALREADY HERE, the Indians will be a better club, perhaps a MUCH better club. Getting those extra 11-12 wins is not an obstacle that can't be overcome. Recall.. what the Indians did in the 2003/5 time frame. The big difference this time around?.. the overall pitching is deeper and the kids that have come up work hard on their defense. This will be a club that wins with its pitching and defense.

If the Indians don't go on some wild spending spree in free agency.. no big deal.. That's a market that just hasn't worked for the Indians.. Astute trades for players..now that's a different story.. That is an area the Indians should always continue to explore and exploit...
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby daingean » Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:48 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Disagree slightly on RBI being the most worthless stat. Batting average is way more worthless as are wins for a pitcher. Agree that you can't look just at RBIs though. But they do tend to mean you are hitting with runners in scoring position, which the Tribe did well at at times, but really struggled at others.

Yeah I don't see Detroit being this good win total next year either. Throw in Martinez who could miss time at any moment and they could be hurting. Rotation was healthy too mostly and can't see that again. I do think Peralta can/will be as good if not better next year, but rest i agree with. Valverde...man, can't see him being that good again.

Do think you may need 90 wins but agree, a healthy Tribe with the young guys and Ubaldo should be able to get there on their own. We need to win more against the likes of the White Sox and Detroit. Only 36-36 in the central won't cut it next year. That right there is where we need to make up games....o and beat frakin Seattle! lol


I'm more of the opinion that you need to take all statistics together to get a good idea. Looking at BA by itself leads you to make mistakes like Harvey Kuenn for Rocky Colavito trade. I also think ignoring a statistic also leads to mistakes in evaluation but real evaluation comes from observation. Wins are also not irrelevant but if a guy wins with higher era, you need to look at each game. Maybe his competitiveness/toughness got him a few wins when his stuff wasn't that great.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Edible14 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 1:58 pm

I think a big assumption here is that the Indians have to make up all those games themselves. They don't neccesarily. The Tigers probably won't be nearly as good next year. Though perhaps the White Sox or Twins will.

I like this team, position-by-position, to be much better next year. I think, with the possible exception of 1B if we don't find anyone, we should be improved or just the same at every position. Even LF, where we played an awful lot of Duncan, Buck and Kearns this year... should be much improved. 2B will be better with Kipnis, 3B SHOULD be better if Chis can figure it out next year and RF should be better since Choo will be healthy and have his head straight.

And the starting staff should be better with Jimenez. But should doesn't always mean will be. So we'll see. But I really think that if we just got Willingham/Upton and a mid-level 1B, we'd be the favorites to win the division.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby criznit2009 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 2:28 pm

SP is a major concern IMO - if you think rolling with 3. Tomlin 4. Carmona 5. ??? - You know one of our depth guys (Gomez is by far the closest to a lock IMO) you are asking for trouble. It shouldn't be to hard to add an innings eating SP which we will need. Expecting Tomlin to continue to succeed (his stuff is not that good sorry), Carmona to bounce back (again :lol: someday right?) and and Gomez/Huff/McAllister to step up and give a ML performance for a whole season is not a good idea and in fact is pretty risky no matter what RH bat they add this off-season assuming they finally realize they need one...
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby jellis » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:08 pm

choo being choo would be 4 more wins, went from one of the top 5 OF in baseball to a guy who barely contributed
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby criznit2009 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:18 pm

jellis wrote:choo being choo would be 4 more wins, went from one of the top 5 OF in baseball to a guy who barely contributed



Agreed - but thats assuming Acab has a similar year (i think he will) also if Brantley improves hit OBS and actually starts stealing more bases (shouldn't he sniff 30 relatively easily?) the top of the order with the addition of Kipnis could score a bunches of runs.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby ironmike » Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:59 pm

No I don't see a pattern. What I see is three young players (Chisenhall, Kipnis and LaPorta) with no track record that make up presently 1/3 of our line up. We need proven impact players to make up 15 games on the Tigers. Detroit will certainly try to improve their roster as well.

The team will try to get one big impact bat. It will take either a blockbuster trade or a significant free agent signing. Then they will need to add other quality position players and improve the depth. Stopping at the acquisition of one big bat won't necessarily get this team into contention next year unless the player is the reincarnation of Frank Robinson and the 1966 year he had with the Orioles.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby indians1 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:10 pm

You cannot project or assume that chisenhall and kipnis will have those kind of years. Chisenhall is still very young and it may take him another year before he would approach those numbers.

Look at matt laporta. we keep waiting for him to hit at the majors and he had very good minor league numbers.

My bet would be on kipnis to do well because of his track record in the minors but you never know. Choo is no guarantee either. The indians haven't been that good with players as they approach 28-30 years old.

I hope they will be good, but we can't guarantee that they will. Ubaldo is the big wild card. I think we could have made that jump this year if ubaldo would have pitched like he was supposed to. Instead we got a guy that had a 5.10 ERA that destabilized the rotation.

You can go back to that detroit game where we needed him to pitch well and he gave up 8 or 9 runs that allowed the tigers to sweep us in late august. That ended the divisional race.

We need ubaldo to pitch like the ACE that antonetti and shapiro thought they were getting when they did the trade. If he pitches well and establishes himself as the ACE, you get masterson and tomlin that set the table for a nice 1-2-3.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Chiefroy » Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:46 pm

We make up 15 games on the Tigers by beating the Tigers. Easier said than done.

Their FO made a brilliant move by picking up Fister. We couldn't touch him or Verlander. Add Scherzer, and those three were 9-0 in 11 starts vs the Tribe w/83 Ks in 72 innings. Even though we hit Scherzer somewhat, we couldn't beat him. Porcello was their only starter we could pin a loss on (1 in 5 starts), with the other 5 losses to us going to their bullpen. But Schlereth, Alburquerque, and Valverde went 26 innings w/29 Ks and only 1 ER vs Cleveland. Combined with the pitiful efforts of our top starting pitchers vs Detroit, we had no chance.

All these Detroit pitchers are righties, so perhaps with a healthy team, improving youngsters and a little luck, our lefty heavy lineup can improve on these lousy numbers. I think we can hit with Detroit, but our SPs are going to have to put up consistently good starts against them. Ubaldo and Masterson need to match Verlander and Fister pitch for pitch and outduel them a few times.

Carmona's option should be picked up again. We need him.

Sizemore, if the knee tests okay, should be back also. I don't know if we pick up his option or work something else out, but he's too damn young and too damn good to give up on. If we can sign or trade for another OFer like Upton or Willingham, fine. Brantley hasn't exactly "wowed" me yet.

I now have more faith in Duncan than LaPorta. And that's not a good thing. 1st base may be a problem. Maybe Nick Johnson has another 100 good ML games left in him. Anyway, keep Duncan, Donald, and Hannahan...they earned it. I really like Jason Donald, so if he's traded we need to get it right.

I wish WE had made the deal for Fister........
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby martyinnewyork » Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:07 am

Verlander gets hurt in the opener... presto. we make up 15 games on the Tigers...
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Chiefroy » Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:13 am

martyinnewyork wrote:Verlander gets hurt in the opener... presto. we make up 15 games on the Tigers...


maybe a four-way crash including avila, miggy, and jhonny. nah...let's just beat 'em.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby daingean » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:42 am

ironmike wrote:No I don't see a pattern. What I see is three young players (Chisenhall, Kipnis and LaPorta) with no track record that make up presently 1/3 of our line up. We need proven impact players to make up 15 games on the Tigers. Detroit will certainly try to improve their roster as well.

The team will try to get one big impact bat. It will take either a blockbuster trade or a significant free agent signing. Then they will need to add other quality position players and improve the depth. Stopping at the acquisition of one big bat won't necessarily get this team into contention next year unless the player is the reincarnation of Frank Robinson and the 1966 year he had with the Orioles.


If you think that you cannot compete with younger players and need veterans to win then no offense you are just following the wrong team. The only way the Indians (with their market and budget) can compete is to have a lot of guys playing at below veteran salaries. There are only a few large market teams that can sustain high priced veterans at every position (and when you say impact you have to mean high priced because impact bats don't come cheaply).

I think Chiz and Kip certainly improved over the course of the final months and will give the Tribe above average performance next season. If they don't then you have Hannahan, Donald, and/or Phelps to take over. Now on the Laporta front, I think there needs to be competition for him. If ML wins the job great but this team should not just give him an everyday spot in the line up next year.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:07 am

The Indians were the third youngest team in the ML's in 2011 and had a dozen kids make their ML debuts.. There just aren't a lot of veteran players on this team and won't be..
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Edible14 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:25 am

ironmike wrote:No I don't see a pattern. What I see is three young players (Chisenhall, Kipnis and LaPorta) with no track record that make up presently 1/3 of our line up. We need proven impact players to make up 15 games on the Tigers. Detroit will certainly try to improve their roster as well.

The team will try to get one big impact bat. It will take either a blockbuster trade or a significant free agent signing. Then they will need to add other quality position players and improve the depth. Stopping at the acquisition of one big bat won't necessarily get this team into contention next year unless the player is the reincarnation of Frank Robinson and the 1966 year he had with the Orioles.


The Rays make no such acquisitions and they manage to contend in a much tougher division. Really, it's not that unrealistic to say that the Indians could win without acquiring a "big" bat.

That being said, with the Indians' first round pick now protected, I think Josh Willingham makes even more sense. What I would love to see is the Indians pick him up for a 2 year deal $8-10M per year (which is about in-line for what MLBTR thinks he'll make this off-season, and would basically replace Grady's salary). Especially if he can play 1B. What I'd like to see is him compete with LaPorta, Mills and maybe someone on a STI contract (Nick Johnson?) at 1B, while simultaneously getting some reps in LF. Essentially, you would have his spot on the roster guaranteed, with a free-for-all between NRI signings (OF and 1B), Carrerra, Neal, Weglarz, LaPorta, Mills and Duncan for the last starting spot and a bench spot or two.

I think that would be much preferable to trading for Upton. The only real problem is that it probably won't go over well with fans, who would see Willingham as another David Delucci/Jason Michaels type signing. But I don't think you should be afraid to sign a guy who has posted above an .800 OPS for the last six years. Even if you've been burned before, it wouldn't make sense to not take that gamble if you have the opportunity.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:52 pm

It's clear that there are going to be at least 2 changes to the coaching staff. If that somehow cuts down on the number of runners that get thrown out at the plate, the Tribe might be able to reduce the 15 game deficit to single digits right there.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Oct 03, 2011 12:07 pm

MadThinker88 wrote:It's clear that there are going to be at least 2 changes to the coaching staff. If that somehow cuts down on the number of runners that get thrown out at the plate, the Tribe might be able to reduce the 15 game deficit to single digits right there.


ha +1

I get that we struggled to score runs at times and Smith was being aggressive...but good lord how many times do you have to send LaPorta before you realize he is turtle on the bases?!?! :fool:

And wasn't Smith fired by the Phillies?...right after they won the World Series in 2008? Not a good 3B coach.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Oct 04, 2011 8:40 am

While considering how the Indians are going to 'make up 15 games' in 2012, the first step involved looking inward at the current roster. The first player to evaluate is, obviously, Grady Sizemore. Going back to some of the pre-season predictions and projections, on March 4th.. I wrote the following regarding Grady Sizemore's projected totals for the 2011 season:

With a projected 350-400 AB's, one AB in seven will be at or slightly below the mendoza line. the remaining 300 or so AB's will see a marked improvement..

Overall, his numbers may read: .244/.332/.412, 12 homers, 38 RBI's, 48 runs scored, 6 SB's, 74 K's, and, most importantly, finally confident and healthy going into the 2012 season...


The aftermath of the 2011 season showed that Grady was only able to stay on the field for 268 ABs. His .224/.285/.422 triple slash line had 10 homers, 34 runs and 32 RBI's to go with no stolen bases and 85 K's. So, even with the meager projection of just over a half year, Grady's contribution to the team was even less than what could be considered marginally poor, at best. And now.. it's back to Dr Steadman for evaluation of his other knee..

It's becoming more and more apparent, this is not going to end up well for the Indians and their FO. Chris Antonetti is between a rock and a hard place.. if he picks up Grady's option, he's a fool for spending that kind of money on a player who hasn't been able to stay on the field for even a half season over the last three years (210 games on the field / 486 games played).. If he doesn't pick up the option, then the onus of the ownership being cheap and a HUGE public relations hammering will follow.

The only realistic approach for the Indians would be to retain Grady by tearing up his current contract and signing an extension for no longer than one year plus a club option.. with appropriate incentives and an appropriate "out clause" in the off chance Grady stays on the field for more than 400 or 500 AB"s in 2012..
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby ironmike » Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:37 am

Geronimo regarding Sizemore. Would you sign a player for $9 million who has had two bad seasons and 5 surgeries?
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:26 am

ironmike wrote:Geronimo regarding Sizemore. Would you sign a player for $9 million who has had two bad seasons and 5 surgeries?


It's actually three bad seasons.. but, let's not quibble... The bad seasons are the results of playing at less than 100 % healthy, probably closer to 50 % healthy... so those go hand in hand.. the surgeries have prevented Grady from being the player that he once was & perhaps will never be.. but, perhaps he will be:

....the guy who flew all over the ball park, made spectacular catches, the guy that hit 22, 28, 24 and 33 homers in consecutive seasons, scored over a hundred runs, drove in nearly 80, stole 20 to 30 bases every year... AGAIN

...that guy is definitely worth the $ 9 MM option the Indians have..

While it's pretty easy to claim Grady will never be that guy ever again.. This defines a defensive mechanism.. if Grady isn't able to post those numbers, then the less optimistic sorts can claim they are right.. if he able to play at the level again, then those SAME sorts can revel in the results of the performance without ever mentioning the previous comments...

The arthroscopic surgery that was completed in Colorado on Monday by Dr Steadman has a prognosis that Grady will be FULLY healthy to start the 2012 season. If that guy is the same guy who captivated and stirred the Friends of the Feather during the summers of 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008.. his option being picked up is a no brainer.. you do it.

Will Chris Antonetti pick it up?..Probably, but not without attempting to renegotiate a lower cost deal with incentives and out clauses as stated in a previous posting by myself and others....
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:32 am

Old friend, THE KOOOOZ ! has been released by the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies did this to avoid having to pay the $ 3.8 MM minimum salary for a player they don't believe will be able to contribute to their efforts in 2012. The KOOZ is now a FA, RH'd and available.. Perhaps a Jack Hannahan type contract...?
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby Prosecutor » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:55 am

....the guy who flew all over the ball park, made spectacular catches, the guy that hit 22, 28, 24 and 33 homers in consecutive seasons, scored over a hundred runs, drove in nearly 80, stole 20 to 30 bases every year... AGAIN

...that guy is definitely worth the $ 9 MM option the Indians have..


After five surgeries, including microfracture knee surgery, it's not realistic to expect Grady to play at that level again for any significant length of time. Not impossible, but not realistic, either, especially as he approaches 30 years old.

But what about the level he played at this spring before injuring his other knee and his groin? From April 17 to May 10, Grady hit .282/.333/.641/.974. In 78 ABs he hit 6 HRs. He didn't steal bases and I doubt he's still a Gold Glove centerfielder, but most of the speed was still there and he looked like he completed his multi-year transition into a middle-of-the-lineup power hitter. If he could produce at that level for only 390 ABs he would have 30 HRs.

A good defensive CF who hits 30 HRs with a .974 OPS would be worth $9 million to a contending team. The ultimate question is not whether he'll be that player next April (I expect he will be), but whether he'll still be that player in June or July. He seems extremely injury prone at this point. He hurt his knee simply by rounding first base legging out a double. He also got hurt on what looked to be a routine slide into second. These are everyday baseball plays. No collisions at the plate or getting hit in the hand by a pitch. Just everyday running and sliding.

Can Grady's body withstand the normal stresses of major league baseball for 130 games or so without breaking down? I doubt the Indians are willing to gamble $9 million on that. I'm hoping he'll take an incentive based deal.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:28 am

Pros.. While it's been a long time since that guy has been that guy, upon his recall from the DL in mid mid April to May 10th (the approximate date Grady injured his other knee) Grady was producing (.282/.333/.631). While his K-rate was still too high, Grady did show that he was that guy.. bad luck?. poor execution of a slide?. trying to do something that his body couldn't?.. all of the above?.. probably..

Doubting the Indians will gamble $ 9 MM on that guy.. is an assumption that could best described as "sane" or "safe". Baseball has seen less sane & safe decisions in the past..

We shall see. The decision has to be made by no later than November 1st...
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Oct 05, 2011 3:18 pm

I have never subscribed to this "gotta make up x amount of games" outlook when looking at the season. Each season is its own season and several outcomes affected the season. I mean, what did the Indians do from 2006 to 2007 that made them "make up 15+ games" that year? It sure wasn't a big time free agent.....it was health and players playing up to their potential (and some playing above expectations as well as the Twins/Tigers/White Sox struggling). That's how you make up 15 games.

You can talk all you want about adding x player or y pitcher....but they are no guarantee. We all thought in the free agent/trade spending spree after the 2008 season that the Indians would improve and they did not.

Health is going to be the biggest reason why this team improves. Not any free agent or trade. I expect them to add a RH bat or two, but they will be of the complimentary variety and hopefully they produce as expected and this team can get expected performance from the rest of their players.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby daingean » Wed Oct 05, 2011 3:42 pm

TonyIPI wrote:I have never subscribed to this "gotta make up x amount of games" outlook when looking at the season. Each season is its own season and several outcomes affected the season. I mean, what did the Indians do from 2006 to 2007 that made them "make up 15+ games" that year? It sure wasn't a big time free agent.....it was health and players playing up to their potential (and some playing above expectations as well as the Twins/Tigers/White Sox struggling). That's how you make up 15 games.

You can talk all you want about adding x player or y pitcher....but they are no guarantee. We all thought in the free agent/trade spending spree after the 2008 season that the Indians would improve and they did not.

Health is going to be the biggest reason why this team improves. Not any free agent or trade. I expect them to add a RH bat or two, but they will be of the complimentary variety and hopefully they produce as expected and this team can get expected performance from the rest of their players.


I agree with your first point. This team improved by 11 games this year. Take away half the injuries and they are in contention (and maybe win the division) all the way to the end. Add into the fact that the young players will be a year improved and here for the full season and yes I think they can improve to a 93 win team (which should win the division). Detroit really got hot in September but this team really was below .500 after mid May (with an awful June) and they still were in contention at the start of September.
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Re: The Task At Hand ... Making Up 15 Games

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:43 pm

The Indians played to a 33-39 record after the All Star Break.. At the break, the Indians trailed the Tigers by a half game. From that point to the end of the season, the Tigers took off.. The indians season came down to not being able to win within the division and especially against the Tigers.. That is ALWAYS the deciding factor when it comes to the AL Central Division..
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