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Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby elrod enchilada » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:53 am

I joined everyone on this board in the back-slapping self-congratulation festival that followed the 2010 draft. The Tribe aced it, we assured ourselves.

A year out, I am not so certain this is such an especially impressive draft. In fact, if drafts need to understood not as how much a team gains from where it started, but, rather, for how well a team does compared to the league average--i.e. did it gain ground talent wise-- this draft may prove to be a clunker.

Pomeranz clearly was a great pick but he is gone, and the jury is out on that deal for now.

Wolters right now looks like he is legit and everything is positive there. Love his future.

Otherwise, so far at least, bow wow city.

Sure some players are out of high school and need more time before we dismiss them, like Siliga, Lavisky, Aviles and Jones. But all of them are longshots at this point.

And maybe Michael Goodnight and Tyler Holt will pan out, though they are better considered marginal prospects at this point in time.

But the rest of their top 15 picks...yikes!

Kyle Blair, sure he got hurt but when healthy he was throwing batting practice. LeVon Washington has had injury issues too, but no one is doing backflips from what he has shown so far. He will likely have to repeat low A next year. Hardly an auspicious beginning for a guy who turns 21 next year. Cole Cook, Jordan Cooper, Nick Bartolone, Tyler Cannon, Diego Seastrunk??? These guys are all roster filler dudes, the kind of guys you draft down at 40 like Brian Heere and Aaron Fields or get as UDFAs.

Is Diego Seastrunk even in the organization still?

Did Jordan Cooper do time or have a Mormon mission? The dude turns 24 in a week, a year out of college. Again, why draft such low upside guys in the top part of the draft. Dead weight roster fillers for the A ball teams will be available later. Use the draft picks, at least in the top 15 rounds, for guys who might have a reasonable chance of playing in the big leagues.

I already like the 2011 draft a heckuva lot more.
Last edited by elrod enchilada on Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby petes999 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:58 am

I think the critic on 2010 is a bit too harsh just 12 months into the review ... we need to give it another year as a lot of the picks were a bit forward thinking ... more HS players than the past.

Remember, Pom had some warts for 5th spot, yet those warts were quickly removed and proven to be a star as you pointed out. In hindsight, it was good that we got him because he became Jimenez ... or we would have given up Kipnis instead. Now that Kipnis is having a breakout ML campaign, I think we are glad that we gambled on keeping him out of the trade. In reality, only one of White or Pom should do good for Colorado. Giving up Pom to keep Kipnis, was a good choice in drafting him.

Washington, I didn't like the pick as much as he is a bit of a head case at times. Yet, the knock of him taking over CF is being debunked a bit. The question now is his bat. He has been injured so let's give him the benefit of the doubt. He does have 100 pt higher OPS and 13 SB so he does have some speed and a little plate discipline (needs to cut back on his 71 Ks though). Yet, in the last 10 games, he has hit .314 thanks to a hot streak in the middle of July before he was shut down for a few weeks. Would like him to develop his power but that comes with weight room to bulk up his 5'11" 170 lb frame.

Wolters, I loved the pick as he did well on Team USA. I think his numbers are good due to being at MV where Washington and Rodriquez are at LC. So, I would move him up in prospect rankings but not yet to number 1.

Blair and Cook -- let's be honest. They were ranked high by BA due to being good consitent college pitchers, but were not going to be a wow ... type prospect. This was the safe part of the draft which you would expect better numbers from Blair .. but injury again slowed him down.

Aviles --- Great pick in that he only cost $150,000 ... we just had to rehab him this year which is all that his numbers show ... Just be patient ....

Lavinsky ... can't really believe it cost $1 million, but he showed in ST that he had a power bat. He has shown streaks of being a good hitter. Yet, he started over his head at LC. Still not doing well hitting at MV, but when the tribe said they were impressed he could catch 100 mph fastball, the bat average probably wasn't why they took him.

Holt ... They like his bat ... reason he started at kinston. Thus, .260 BA and over .300 in July, isn't that bad. Yet, he was always projected as a 4th outfielder because he wasn't a power guy that is evident this year. Think Fransisco.

Goodnight ... I actually was very high on him at the beginning of the year as he had an outstanding start. Yet, around 50 innings, he started to fall apart. You have to wonder, if Tribe did something to his delivery or if he hit that wall as he was not use to pitching every 5th day. Yet, remember, with his name, he may end up a reliever where he is just starting to develop.

Dischler -- major disappointment ... but you will always have a few of these ... just not soo soon.

The rest are just kids and need time as you said. I am actually higher on this draft than on 2011 draft for now. People are high on Sisco and Lowery ... but Sisco has 5.13 ERA and Lowery is hitting .254 and getting lots of walks due to poor pitching as it is filled with 2nd tier college players. Yet, of course it is way to early to judge them on just 2 months. I like it when the Indians take chances in the middle rounds 4-10 which they did with Lavinsky and Avilies last year and Haase and a bit with Myles and Smith this year.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Sol Solis » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:36 pm

elrod enchilada wrote:Did Jordan Cooper do time or have a Mormon mission? The dude turns 24 in a week, a year out of college.


Jordan Cooper was born in 1989, so he's 22 not 24.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby elrod enchilada » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:41 pm

Ooops,sorry about that. I meant Tyler Cannon.

Jordan Cooper doesn't have age as an excuse. He just flat out sucks. If he makes it to AA it will be a shock. What a lame pick.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:54 pm

elrod enchilada wrote:The dude turns 24 in a week, a year out of college.


Lots of kids turn 24 a year out of college....most kids are 22 or 23 when the graduate.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby elrod enchilada » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:17 pm

yeah, but they aren't getting drafted as high as Cannon did, unless they are flat-out studs. Usually they are down in the John Barr-Brian Heere zone.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby elrod enchilada » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:18 pm

Lord help us if the 2011 draft turns out worse than the 2010 draft.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Lloyd Christmas » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:27 pm

Holt is above league average in OPS and 30/35 in SB. If you wanted more from him I dont know what to tell you.
I agree that outside of about 5 picks it looks like a bunch of filler guys but so does every draft.

Curious does anyone know how many players from a given draft typically make the majors?
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Sol Solis » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:36 pm

Lloyd Christmas wrote:Holt is above league average in OPS and 30/35 in SB. If you wanted more from him I dont know what to tell you.
I agree that outside of about 5 picks it looks like a bunch of filler guys but so does every draft.

Curious does anyone know how many players from a given draft typically make the majors?


Using the Indians as a barometer the past decade or so, before this year... none.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:39 pm

Lloyd Christmas wrote:Holt is above league average in OPS and 30/35 in SB. If you wanted more from him I dont know what to tell you.
I agree that outside of about 5 picks it looks like a bunch of filler guys but so does every draft.

Curious does anyone know how many players from a given draft typically make the majors?


Yeah, people need to take a closer look when reviewing Carolina League stats. Offensive numbers are always way down there. I mean the league has just TWO players hitting over .288 this year. Think about that. The guy 11th in the league in hitting is hitting .269. Also only six guys have an OPS above .800 this year in the league.

Holt has had a successful first full season if you ask me. May not be a big time prospect, but is showing everything as expected coming out of the draft.

Also, I have to pass on Washington this year. Tough to grade him on numbers when the guy has been hurt all year. Also Kyle Blair has had a bad knee for most of the year, which has affected his performance. I will agree though that Dischler has been a huge disappointment, and Lavisky has shown good power but been underwhelming, and Cole Cook has not been too good.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby criznit2009 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:47 pm

TonyIPI wrote:
Lloyd Christmas wrote:Holt is above league average in OPS and 30/35 in SB. If you wanted more from him I dont know what to tell you.
I agree that outside of about 5 picks it looks like a bunch of filler guys but so does every draft.

Curious does anyone know how many players from a given draft typically make the majors?


Yeah, people need to take a closer look when reviewing Carolina League stats. Offensive numbers are always way down there. I mean the league has just TWO players hitting over .288 this year. Think about that. The guy 11th in the league in hitting is hitting .269. Also only six guys have an OPS above .800 this year in the league.

Holt has had a successful first full season if you ask me. May not be a big time prospect, but is showing everything as expected coming out of the draft.

Also, I have to pass on Washington this year. Tough to grade him on numbers when the guy has been hurt all year. Also Kyle Blair has had a bad knee for most of the year, which has affected his performance. I will agree though that Dischler has been a huge disappointment, and Lavisky has shown good power but been underwhelming, and Cole Cook has not been too good.


Cant overlook Bartolones poor performance as well. Compared to this years 6 round pick (Myles) there looks to be a HUGE difference in talent.

Overall though one could make a case that other than Pom and Wolters the 2010 draft does look pretty busted. I won't as I think guys like Blair and Washington are better than this years numbers... How much better remains to be seen but no way you can give this draft higher than a C (at best) right now. And long term could become an F way more easily than an A (wont happen)or even a B IMO.
Hoping for 1 ML guy from this draft at this point - Wolters.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:01 pm

elrod enchilada wrote:Ooops,sorry about that. I meant Tyler Cannon.

Jordan Cooper doesn't have age as an excuse. He just flat out sucks. If he makes it to AA it will be a shock. What a lame pick.

Cooper as a reliever at LC: 11G, 25IP, 13H, 5ER, 8BB, 25K, BAA .149, WHIP 0.84. Dude's a reliever. Prepare to be shocked.

You can argue the "reliever in the 9th Round" thing but Cooper doesn't "suck"--as a reliever.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:26 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
elrod enchilada wrote:The dude turns 24 in a week, a year out of college.


Lots of kids turn 24 a year out of college....most kids are 22 or 23 when the graduate.



I was old for my grad level every year in school and graduate at 22, unless you 5th year, or red shirt most college grads will be 21-22, Cooper was only a sophomore when selected so not as much development
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby elrod enchilada » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:57 pm

I would love to be proven wrong by Cooper, and that he actually does make it all the way to AA ball. I think he presently ranks in the top 25 among Tribe bullpen prospects, so he has a shot at AA ball.

I sure he is a nice young man and I wish him nothing but the best after he finishes his career in Akron.

But from here on out let's shoot for guys like that in the second half of the draft, not in the first 10 rounds.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:51 pm

jellis wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
elrod enchilada wrote:The dude turns 24 in a week, a year out of college.


Lots of kids turn 24 a year out of college....most kids are 22 or 23 when the graduate.



I was old for my grad level every year in school and graduate at 22, unless you 5th year, or red shirt most college grads will be 21-22, Cooper was only a sophomore when selected so not as much development


Graduating college at 21 is VERY young. There are more kids graduating high school at 19 than 17 these days. Parents like holding their kids back as it gives them a better chance with sports. At least this is how it is in Ohio (mother and sister work in schools).

In order to be 21 and graduate you either graduated early or were 17 when you graduated high school, which definitely happens....but not as much anymore. Lincecum is a good example, was nearly 19 when he graduated high school. Was 22 when drafted by the Giants (or about, bday is June 15th). Would have been 23 had he graduated....or 24 a year out of school. Wasn't a "mormon mission" guy.

Moot point I guess lol
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:15 pm

Some states require kids to be a certain age to enter school. My 5 yr old / soon to be 6 was held out of school bc of his birthday. That does affect some guys others injury, transfers etc.

I think it's a bit early to judge this draft, and a key component Pomeranz was traded. Washington and Blair injured even Wolters spent some down time. Dischler disappointing, Lavisky underachieving and Aviles recovering. Jordan Cooper is a reliever, as is likely Cole Cook and Mike Goodnight as far as Tyler Cannon a utility infielder. Honestly it's hard to grade this draft a yr out and with Pomeranz in AA Tulsa. IMO Pomeranz is worth about 25% himself if he were still here I'd grade it as high as a B. Without Pomeranz I'd simply tag it a C- bc of injuries and the Trade.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:18 pm

I agree it's too early to judge this draft. Pom being in Tulsa now doesn't really change the draft for me. He's still the same player whether he's here or not. Could argue he's already proven to be a huge asset as we got Ubaldo.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:53 pm

Cooper's career so far is pretty much mirroring Preston Guilmet's. They're both former 9th Round pick & pretty much the same size. Guilmet was pretty boring as a starter at MV. The next year he was converted to relief & blossomed. Cooper's still being used as a starter along with relief work but I believe he's destined for the pen.

Also, you can't grade the draft excluding Pomeranz. Grade the Nats draft without Harper.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:46 pm

Personally I'd grade the 2010 draft a B right now including Pomeranz. Thing about the Pomeranz trade it does affect the overall draft grade. His development outside this org. Should not be credited for or against this org. Just saying that changes alot of things, teams handle players differently. I.e. Alex White was bound for the bullpen here according to reports upon his return... The Rox are stretching him out / building him up to be a starter and expect him back and in their rotation by next month.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby JP_Frost » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:01 pm

Though I agree that the perfomances have largely been mediocre, you are totally disregarding scouting reports. I'm a stat head first and foremost, but to judge guys in low A or even below AA on performance is a less than half of the big picture.

We drafted fairly high ceiling guys last year and that's the only thing you can do. Get as much potential in your system as possible and see who sticks. Let's not pass judgement before getting every bit of info.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:02 pm

elrod enchilada wrote: Wolters right now looks like he is legit and everything is positive there. Love his future.


Wolters' lack of power is a bit concerning. Hopefully it's due to his hand not being fully healed, but an ISP of .083 isn't awesome. It's a small sample and he may still not be 100%, but his numbers indicate more Jamey Carroll than Dustin Pedroia at this point.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:23 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Personally I'd grade the 2010 draft a B right now including Pomeranz. Thing about the Pomeranz trade it does affect the overall draft grade. His development outside this org. Should not be credited for or against this org. Just saying that changes alot of things, teams handle players differently. I.e. Alex White was bound for the bullpen here according to reports upon his return... The Rox are stretching him out / building him up to be a starter and expect him back and in their rotation by next month.


If you're not going to let Pom's development affect the 2010 draft grade though, don't you have to use how Ubaldo pitches to grade it? I mean, if ubaldo becomes the Ace he can be and leads the tribe to the playoffs a couple times, that would make the Pom pick look that much better right?

IMO you can grade a draft by how well you used your assets, not only by how well they play for you.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:34 pm

Agreed. I think pomeranz grade is attached to Jimenez and his results more than Pomeranz bc that's what he was turned into.

Similar principle; Brady Quinn was a good draft pk by the browns bc he became Peyton Hillis.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:34 pm

Agreed. I think pomeranz grade is attached to Jimenez and his results more than Pomeranz bc that's what he was turned into.

Similar principle; Brady Quinn was a good draft pk by the browns bc he became Peyton Hillis.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:45 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Similar principle; Brady Quinn was a good draft pk by the browns bc he became Peyton Hillis.


Yeah can't agree with that. Look at what was taken with the 2nd round pick we lost (Kevin Kolb) and the 1st round pick the next year (or any picks around that pick, ie, Chris Johnson).
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby entertheshoe » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:54 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Similar principle; Brady Quinn was a good draft pk by the browns bc he became Peyton Hillis.


Yeah can't agree with that. Look at what was taken with the 2nd round pick we lost (Kevin Kolb) and the 1st round pick the next year (or any picks around that pick, ie, Chris Johnson).


That, plus all of the time spent seeing whether or not Brady Quinn was terrible is time that the Browns will never get back.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:38 am

I never thought about it like that. Huh, you're absolutely right cpl wasted yrs there and that extra pk, I didn't consider.

Nonetheless Pomeranz will always be linked to Jimenez. Got feeling we could be kicking ourselves on dealing Pomeranz. I really liked White but unsure after the injury. Hopefully the Tribe is able to extend Jimenez's contract and Belcher is able to work out the kinks.
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Re: Upon Further Review--The 2010 Amateur Draft

Postby Edible14 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:37 am

Hermie13 wrote:In order to be 21 and graduate you either graduated early or were 17 when you graduated high school, which definitely happens....but not as much anymore.


Not entirely true. I've seen quite a few people get their BA in only 3 or 3.5 years in college, usually because they have a significant amount of credit coming in (through PSOP, usually) and/or they load themselves with so many credit hours, and/or they've taken summer classes. At my school, a lot of people do "geojourney", where they spend a summer backpacking around the US for a full semester's worth of credits (mostly towards things that everyone has to have on their degree).
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