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Kipnis and Phelps

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Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Bearcatbob » Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:34 pm

How do these two fit going forward? Does not one have to leave? Should we simply assume Chiz is the 3b?
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby artgold » Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:44 pm

Based on the Indians talent level, I don't see how you get rid of either at this time.

Also, I'm not so sure "Chiz" is a guy who is going to prove to be any better than Casey Blake was for the Tribe. I still like the guy, but I think a few folks may have expectations about his performance that may not be realistic based upon what he had done in a few minor league seasons.

So, I wouldn't be inclined to "excess" either at this point in time.
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Bearcatbob » Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:56 pm

I think Casey Blake was a good player. Chiz at that level would be a good result IMO.

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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:01 am

Plan is still Chisenhall at 3B and Kipnis at 2B with Phelps mixing in at both as the super utility guy. Those plans can change though. I see no issues getting these guys enough playing time, mostly because I think Phelps is the perfect compliment to both Chiz/Kipnis and a heckuva Plan B potentially at both positions.
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby A.Zajac » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:47 am

While a lot can happen between now and the end of the season, for the first time, I believe Kipnis has surpassed Chisenhall in my prospect ranks..
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:18 pm

A.Zajac wrote:While a lot can happen between now and the end of the season, for the first time, I believe Kipnis has surpassed Chisenhall in my prospect ranks..


hmm, disagree. I think sometimes people forget that Chiz is a full 18 months younger than Kipnis. Chiz's ceiling is way higher than Kip's IMO both offensively and defensively still.

People seem to have come to think that all top prospects only need 2 months in AAA then must be in the bigs or their stock has fallen....while some guys can do that, spending a full year in AAA to get your hitting and defense to ML levels is nothing to worry about.
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby daingean » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:41 pm

Hermie13 wrote:hmm, disagree. I think sometimes people forget that Chiz is a full 18 months younger than Kipnis. Chiz's ceiling is way higher than Kip's IMO both offensively and defensively still.

People seem to have come to think that all top prospects only need 2 months in AAA then must be in the bigs or their stock has fallen....while some guys can do that, spending a full year in AAA to get your hitting and defense to ML levels is nothing to worry about.


I think people's perceptions get altered by need. The need for a solid 3B for the team is now. So they anticipate/hope that Chiz is ready to take over that position. Well he is not ready so in disappointment they lower his value. Truth is Chiz is a college SS growing into a MLB 3B with a sweet left-handed swing. I'm not sure how much longer Chiz needs at AAA but he is not ready at this point.
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Tondo » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:46 pm

Age talk is overrated imho....I'm a production guy and guys who have "potential" but fail to impress year afte year more often than not are just that: hype....now, I'm not even close to give up at all on Chis, but I think he'll be a very AVG MLB bat, which for us would be a huge upgrade at 3B...but compared to Kipnis I never quite understood why he was ranked over him...more than anything it was hype, cool name and draft position mix imho...meanwhile Kipnis out-produced him everywhere they played

Yes, he IS younger..so what? It's not like Kipnis is old for his level...Also, Chis has 600 more ABs in the minors (1 more year) and his career OPS is a very undewhelming sub .800...Kipnis' is .100points higher btw, that's significant imho and can't be excused with age...Kipnis is WAY more consistent and still has improved every month in Columbus...so much that his bat can be considered MLB ready after only about 850 Minor League ABs, that's impressive

So close to the MLB level give me production OVER uspide/ceiling any day...said the same things about Tomlin 2 years ago...I don't care much about upside with specs when they're in their 4th pro-year...it's bottom line production time.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not giving up on Chis, he needs more time and I want to see him earn the MLB time and thus far he simply hasn't earned it, while Kipnis has...that's all I care about, age or upside doesn't win baseball games, consistency/dependability, completeness and production does...and in those categories that really matter Kipnis is a clear 3-0 to Chis, sorry and I really think he's losing the upside-battle between the 2 too...ok, I'm playing your age-game: now, do you think Chiz, who struggled hitting LHP for years now, magically will have balanced OPS in the mid-.800s against both sides next season, when he's comparable to Kipnis this year (only age wise though)? I have my doubts, he might improve, heck, he better does, otherwise his floor is becomes WAY lower than Kipnis in a hurry: we'd be looking at a platoon-bat...I'm giving him the 2nd half of this and the entire next season at AAA to improve against LHP, if he doesn't...well...let's not even think that yet

Too much projection talk around here (kinda be expected though), I just don't get when consistent performers get undervalued...didn't get it for years with guys like Rivero and Tomlin or Abreu and Pestano etc etc Now, who made Top 20 prospect lists? and who is playing in the Majors? LeVon Washington will be part 99 of this overvalue "high upside" saga, but that's just a wild guess from an observer
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:00 pm

Tondo wrote:Age talk is overrated imho....I'm a production guy and guys who have "potential" but fail to impress year afte year more often than not are just that: hype....now, I'm not even close to give up at all on Chis, but I think he'll be a very AVG MLB bat, which for us would be a huge upgrade at 3B...but compared to Kipnis I never quite understood why he was ranked over him...more than anything it was hype, cool name and draft position mix imho...meanwhile Kipnis out-produced him everywhere they played

Yes, he IS younger..so what? It's not like Kipnis is old for his level...Also, Chis has 600 more ABs in the minors (1 more year) and his career OPS is a very undewhelming sub .800...Kipnis' is .100points higher btw, that's significant imho and can't be excused with age...Kipnis is WAY more consistent and still has improved every month in Columbus...so much that his bat can be considered MLB ready after only about 850 Minor League ABs, that's impressive


Strongly disagree.

You're ignoring that Kipnis played 4 years in college and finished at a Top college program. Chiz meanwhile got kicked off South Carolina's team his freshman year then had to be relegated to Juco. While you can't say it's not his own fault, he should have been much less prepared to have a quick rise thru the minors.

Kipnis SHOULD be more ML ready with fewer at-bats than Chiz. So IMO he's really done nothing special when compared to Chiz. But to each their own.

Wasn't saying Kip was old either, simply that he should by all rights beat Chiz to the MLs. Has had more developmental time even if it all didn't come in the pros. Chiz also isn't the first young prospect to struggle in AAA. Brantley struggled early on his first stint there too. It happens. Personally wouldn't be upset or discouraged if Chiz spends all of 2011 in AAA and stays there til June of next season. Don't think it diminishes his value at all.

Said all winter I thought Kip would beat him. It's why I suggested back in September that Donald be moved to 3B. figured Kip would be at 2B before Chiz at 3B. Felt then though and still do now that Chiz will be the better MLer when all is said and done though.
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Edible14 » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:33 pm

The thing is, I don't think either make it to the show this year. Kipnis isn't Rule V eligible and there are 4 options ahead of him (Donald, Phelps, Valbuena and OCab). There are certain scenarios that bring him up early (rash of injuries, if he went on a Goedert-like run and nobody was performing well at the MLB level in a playoff race, etc.), but my money is on him sitting out in AAA all year. Chisenhall is different because the only guy blocking him (unless Phelps/Donald move over) is Jack Hannahan, but given his lack of production... I wouldn't put money on him being up either, at least not until September.

They both have chances to adjust and develop. It's going to be a long process, and making judgements right now is a bit silly. Even if Chis has a .700 OPS by the end of the year, there's still plenty of hope for him.
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Tondo » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:03 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Kipnis SHOULD be more ML ready with fewer at-bats than Chiz. So IMO he's really done nothing special when compared to Chiz. But to each their own.


See...that's what I mean..."nothing special"? Really? He's a lefty bat that figured out LHP in a hurry...that's nothing special? Phelps and Kipnis are by far the best MIF bats in the IntLeague...Chis is the 7th 3B and only 1 3B has an OPS over .800. He's the best hitting 2B in his league in his 1st year and probably was before. He passed through every level with an A, while Chis just got by so-so.....nothing special? It's that kind of de-valuing of a prospect to make some obscure specs list look "right" that I hate...just get over yourself and say it: he's better.

If all you have to throw into this discussion is being 18months younger...oh boy, good luck with that. Honestly, what is "upside" for you? Chis has to hit .850+ next season and as well against LHP to even be on the same level BY YOUR LOGIC (age/development)...I think it's a longshot he accomplishes it...why? Well, he never did against weaker comp, it's a trend, so why should he all of a sudden be a .800 guy against LHP?...I just dont see it....what is upside worth if it doesn't materialize CONSISTENTLY? It's just that...hot air. I know HS bats that maybe need their 5th year to show something, but JC guys? Cmon...he's still young, yeah, but don't give the development BS, that's not flying with me...with bats it's pretty easy to project...if there's something special, you just see it in their numbers...then again, there are those high upside bats that show something every now and then but still don't have the bottom line production to back it up, they're called underachievers and just can't or won't be CONSISTENT...I'm not throwing Chis in there yet, but compared to Kipnis it's not even an argument imho

We can settle on Chis being POTENTIALLY better as long as you agree that Kipnis simply IS better...and again: this close to prime time I'm taking actual sure production over potential production, which often is just an excuse for saying "he hasn't put it all together yet"...well, when will that be?
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:01 pm

Tondo wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:Kipnis SHOULD be more ML ready with fewer at-bats than Chiz. So IMO he's really done nothing special when compared to Chiz. But to each their own.


See...that's what I mean..."nothing special"? Really? He's a lefty bat that figured out LHP in a hurry...that's nothing special? Phelps and Kipnis are by far the best MIF bats in the IntLeague...Chis is the 7th 3B and only 1 3B has an OPS over .800. He's the best hitting 2B in his league in his 1st year and probably was before. He passed through every level with an A, while Chis just got by so-so.....nothing special? It's that kind of de-valuing of a prospect to make some obscure specs list look "right" that I hate...just get over yourself and say it: he's better.

If all you have to throw into this discussion is being 18months younger...oh boy, good luck with that. Honestly, what is "upside" for you? Chis has to hit .850+ next season and as well against LHP to even be on the same level BY YOUR LOGIC (age/development)...I think it's a longshot he accomplishes it...why? Well, he never did against weaker comp, it's a trend, so why should he all of a sudden be a .800 guy against LHP?...I just dont see it....what is upside worth if it doesn't materialize CONSISTENTLY? It's just that...hot air. I know HS bats that maybe need their 5th year to show something, but JC guys? Cmon...he's still young, yeah, but don't give the development BS, that's not flying with me...with bats it's pretty easy to project...if there's something special, you just see it in their numbers...then again, there are those high upside bats that show something every now and then but still don't have the bottom line production to back it up, they're called underachievers and just can't or won't be CONSISTENT...I'm not throwing Chis in there yet, but compared to Kipnis it's not even an argument imho

We can settle on Chis being POTENTIALLY better as long as you agree that Kipnis simply IS better...and again: this close to prime time I'm taking actual sure production over potential production, which often is just an excuse for saying "he hasn't put it all together yet"...well, when will that be?

Your ranting is boring as hell. Hermie makes a valid point whether you like it or not. This thread is about Kipnis and Phelps which you ignore so you can pontificate. :fool:
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:10 pm

Edible14 wrote:The thing is, I don't think either make it to the show this year. Kipnis isn't Rule V eligible and there are 4 options ahead of him (Donald, Phelps, Valbuena and OCab). There are certain scenarios that bring him up early (rash of injuries, if he went on a Goedert-like run and nobody was performing well at the MLB level in a playoff race, etc.), but my money is on him sitting out in AAA all year. Chisenhall is different because the only guy blocking him (unless Phelps/Donald move over) is Jack Hannahan, but given his lack of production... I wouldn't put money on him being up either, at least not until September.

They both have chances to adjust and develop. It's going to be a long process, and making judgements right now is a bit silly. Even if Chis has a .700 OPS by the end of the year, there's still plenty of hope for him.
You make a very cogent argument for your position..

Yes. Rule V eligibility is a crucial milestone in development. By not being close, being on the roster and advancing through the system can be paced at a rate within the care custody and control of the parent club.. good situation for the Indians organization.

Yes. The options currently available to the Indians are clearly being evaluated. Donald Phelps and Valbuena to go with starter, OCabby give the Indians the luxury of depth.

Chisenhall does have just Hannahan in front of him.. and Hanny is on a short term contract. The production from Hanny, is a bonus.. moreso in the cluth. The at bats he's been getting recently have been encouraging as well. Chisenhall may not see the ML's unless an injury comes or for a cup of coffee late in the season. Spot on analysis about Hanny and Chiz.. btw.. both Cord Phelps and Jason Donald can fill in for both M-IF and 3B. Good versatility.

As far as the numbers stated, OPS etc.. those are just guesstimated projections (read, best guess.. you really never know until the players get some AB's at the level, make adjustments, and play.. around 250-500 AB 's will determine if a player has the chops to be what you think he can be..)

Good comments.. :drinks:
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:15 pm

Regarding who "should be" more ready.. The light goes on at mysterious times for mysterious reasons in baseball. At least that's the way it's always been.. Sometimes 10 years of being in the minors followed by making it to the ML's, is uncommon, but it happens.. Juco v Big Time College Program.. same drill... it's the light that goes off in the individual player's head..

Arguing about what is fundamentally undefinable.. seems silly.. getting upset (tondo).. goes over the line.. :blush:
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Tondo » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:25 pm

Upset? I'm not upset, lol I should note that english isn't my motehr tongue...so maybe I come across differently

If anything I'm amazed everyone buys into the 18months younger "argument"...if that's a valid point I guess I didn't make any. I just tried to make good arguments why I think Kipnis > Chis, that's all

Or in words not to hurt armchair scouts feelings: I have Kipnis ranked over Chis for over 12 months now and some other specs might even be in between them after this season's over. Consider me on the high end with Kipnis and low end with Chis, that's the way I see them
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby jellis » Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:59 pm

Tondo wrote:Upset? I'm not upset, lol I should note that english isn't my motehr tongue...so maybe I come across differently

If anything I'm amazed everyone buys into the 18months younger "argument"...if that's a valid point I guess I didn't make any. I just tried to make good arguments why I think Kipnis > Chis, that's all

Or in words not to hurt armchair scouts feelings: I have Kipnis ranked over Chis for over 12 months now and some other specs might even be in between them after this season's over. Consider me on the high end with Kipnis and low end with Chis, that's the way I see them



its not 18 months younger its 4 years of major college baseball vs one year, that is what people are arguing age is not the deal experience is
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby artgold » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:27 pm

Actually, I mentioned Chisenhall in my response because I think we better have a backup plan in case he doesn't work out.

I know nobody wants to think about this as a possibility, and I still expect him to have a decent major league career at 3rd. But realistically, his minor league performance isn't screaming out "star" so far, so I'd like to have other alternatives in our system in case Chisenhall morphs into a Marte.

Again, I'm not predicting Chisenhall to fail, but I'm not as confident as most that he eliminates the need for other alternatives for 3rd base.
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Tondo » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:35 pm

Ok, let's look at experience...Chisenhall lost 3 years of College play to Kipnis but gained 1 as a Pro...overall he has 600 more ABs of experience as a Pro...Kipnis had about 600 career ABs in College..so? Bottom line is they had the same number of competitive ABs over the last 5 years...all that's left are 18months of DOB difference and I sure don't rate a guy that has passed every test so far lower only because he was expected to pass them...but the guy that just was "ok" is rated higher because he wasn't expected to dominate age wise? Sound logic :shok:

Imho Chis' "upside" is to actually hit like Kipnis with a little more power and less speed but as long as he doesn't..well, he is behind Kipnis
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Re: Kipnis and Phelps

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:33 pm

Bottom line is ABs aren't the only thing to look at when talking about experience. The coaching and the competition was way more beneficial to Kipnis where he was playing.


Fair enough if you like Kip better. You're definitely not alone (BP and Goldstein agree with you). Do think you're vastly selling Chiz short though.
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