RSS Twitter Facebook YouTube
Expand Menu

2011 predictions

Talk about the Cleveland Indians, Major League Baseball, and other sports.

2011 predictions

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat Mar 26, 2011 4:31 pm

76 wins

Fausto Carmona 15-10 3.50 era all-star app.

Justin Masterson 12-10 4.25 era 180+ in 150 k

Chris Perez 35 sv 2.25 era

Carlos Carassco 12-10 3.85 era

Travis Hafner .285 15 hr 65 RBI

Carlos Santana .285 22 hr 90 RBI

Asdrubal Cabrera .285 10 hr

Orlando Cabrera .270 4 hr 10 sb ...tr. by mid season.

Mitch Talbot 4-10 5.25 era moved to the pen or tr.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby daingean » Sat Mar 26, 2011 9:06 pm

Record 74-88

F.Carmona 16-11
C. Perez 37 Saves
Carrasco - 11 - 15

Santana .297 23 Hrs (OBP will be .390, OPS = .872
O. Cab .270 6 Hrs (traded in July)
Kipnis .265 5 Hrs (After O.Cab trade)
Chiz .273 10 Hrs (called up June 12th)
A. Cab .303 6 Hrs
Sizemore .271 28 Hrs 16 SB
Brantley .281 2 Hrs. 28 SB
Choo .310 27 Hrs (.866 OPS)
Hafner .265 22 Hrs.

Suprise: Alex White 8-5 4.12 (Called up June 4th)
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1538
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby ChadS17 » Sat Mar 26, 2011 9:41 pm

daingean wrote:Record 74-88

F.Carmona 16-11
C. Perez 37 Saves
Carrasco - 11 - 15

Santana .297 23 Hrs (OBP will be .390, OPS = .872
O. Cab .270 6 Hrs (traded in July)
Kipnis .265 5 Hrs (After O.Cab trade)
Chiz .273 10 Hrs (called up June 12th)
A. Cab .303 6 Hrs
Sizemore .271 28 Hrs 16 SB
Brantley .281 2 Hrs. 28 SB
Choo .310 27 Hrs (.866 OPS)
Hafner .265 22 Hrs.

Suprise: Alex White 8-5 4.12 (Called up June 4th)


IMO if we get the years you are saying from Sizemore, Choo, Hafner, and Santana, we will be much better than 74-88. That would make a solid middle of the lineup along with contributions from Chiz and Kipnis, this could be a very good lineup.
ChadS17
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2011 9:32 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby daingean » Sat Mar 26, 2011 9:50 pm

ChadS17 wrote:
daingean wrote:Record 74-88

F.Carmona 16-11
C. Perez 37 Saves
Carrasco - 11 - 15

Santana .297 23 Hrs (OBP will be .390, OPS = .872
O. Cab .270 6 Hrs (traded in July)
Kipnis .265 5 Hrs (After O.Cab trade)
Chiz .273 10 Hrs (called up June 12th)
A. Cab .303 6 Hrs
Sizemore .271 28 Hrs 16 SB
Brantley .281 2 Hrs. 28 SB
Choo .310 27 Hrs (.866 OPS)
Hafner .265 22 Hrs.

Suprise: Alex White 8-5 4.12 (Called up June 4th)


IMO if we get the years you are saying from Sizemore, Choo, Hafner, and Santana, we will be much better than 74-88. That would make a solid middle of the lineup along with contributions from Chiz and Kipnis, this could be a very good lineup.


I am not sold on the rotation (Masterson, Talbott, Tomlin, Carrasco). I don't see them eating enough innings to prevent the BP from getting over-worked and imploding). I like our BP alot but my fear is too many 7-6 games or 9-8 losses. I think when Carrasco wins he'll be good but when he doesn't win....well. I see White being a bright spot when he does come up.

Edit: I don't see 72 Hrs from your 3-5 guys (Choo, Santana, Hafner) as being above average. I see power as a deficiency especially in the middle of the order.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1538
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby artgold » Sat Mar 26, 2011 11:21 pm

I find it too tough to make specific player predictions, but can comment on the team itself.

I believe we will finish at 70-92. However, though I probably am a bit more pessimistic about the record than most posters I actually think we will make some progress in determining how we will be staffed for our next playoff run. Overall I think we will find pitching to be a continuing problem, but will be about league average in scoring, with a decent promise of being somewhat in the "plus" scoring category beginning next season.

Relief pitching should be able to salvage the season from being a disaster, but I suspect the starting pitching will struggle. If Hagadone miraculously becomes a good starting pitcher for us before the end of the season, which would certainly be a significant surprise, this would go a long way towards helping out beginning next season.

So, though I don't expect much of an improvement in our record, I do think we'll show some progress (especially if we go about $10 million in the draft again).
artgold
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1101
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:00 am

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby ChadS17 » Sat Mar 26, 2011 11:39 pm

daingean wrote:
ChadS17 wrote:
daingean wrote:Record 74-88

F.Carmona 16-11
C. Perez 37 Saves
Carrasco - 11 - 15

Santana .297 23 Hrs (OBP will be .390, OPS = .872
O. Cab .270 6 Hrs (traded in July)
Kipnis .265 5 Hrs (After O.Cab trade)
Chiz .273 10 Hrs (called up June 12th)
A. Cab .303 6 Hrs
Sizemore .271 28 Hrs 16 SB
Brantley .281 2 Hrs. 28 SB
Choo .310 27 Hrs (.866 OPS)
Hafner .265 22 Hrs.

Suprise: Alex White 8-5 4.12 (Called up June 4th)


IMO if we get the years you are saying from Sizemore, Choo, Hafner, and Santana, we will be much better than 74-88. That would make a solid middle of the lineup along with contributions from Chiz and Kipnis, this could be a very good lineup.


I am not sold on the rotation (Masterson, Talbott, Tomlin, Carrasco). I don't see them eating enough innings to prevent the BP from getting over-worked and imploding). I like our BP alot but my fear is too many 7-6 games or 9-8 losses. I think when Carrasco wins he'll be good but when he doesn't win....well. I see White being a bright spot when he does come up.

Edit: I don't see 72 Hrs from your 3-5 guys (Choo, Santana, Hafner) as being above average. I see power as a deficiency especially in the middle of the order.


Very true, we do not have a 30-40 HR guy, but I believe that by the end of the year Sizemore will be in the middle of the order as well. So you would have Choo, Santana, Hafner, Sizemore, and POSSIBLY LaPorta as 20+ homerun guys. IMO for this team to contend we will have to pull off quite a trade to get a legit power threat. Fair enough on the rotation...I think Masterson will have a breakout year and Carrasco will be OK, as you said.
ChadS17
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2011 9:32 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:55 am

Travis Buck has seemingly thrown a monkey wrench into it all, at some point if he continue to hit well I wouldn't be surprised to see Buck replace Austin Kearns as the 4 th OF Buck is intriguing to Tribe brass. As a former ROY w/ the A's Buck has the ability to play both corner spots, a little CF and is fairly new to 1b but has the size teams like from 1b. Buck changed approach at the plate courtesy of Nunnally and Choo has really seemed to make his bat come to life.

The Tribe really needs the starting pitching to come together. Carmona should be alright but after him who knows...
I expect Masterson to come around and become more consistent, Carlos Carrasco has struggled at times this spring but looked ready at the end of last yr. Tomlin is an overachiever and Talbot is a bp pitcher. I wouldn't be too surprised if Talbot were traded or moved to the pen as early as the mid- to end of May.

Overall I expect a better team that is more competitive than last yr. The starting pitching appears to be the weak link but if some of the prospects develop qkly that can change overnight.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:05 am

Sin Soo Choo .297 24 hrs 90 RBI 15 sb.

Michael Brantley .280 5 hrs 30 sb.

Austin Kearns will be tr. before AllStar brk.

Orlando Cabrera will be tr. Before the deadline.

Travis Buck will be a comeback player of the yr candidate.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby Prosecutor » Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:14 am

The Indians will win at least ten more games than last year.

As I pointed out in another thread, the offense will be significantly better with Santana replacing Marson/Redmond and Sizemore replacing Crowe. Huge upgrades in both cases. Astrubal is hitting over .400 this spring and will improve over last year's injury affected numbers. Acta is gushing about the way he is stronger and driving the ball.

Brantley hit .284 after coming up from the minors and should match or improve on that this season. Orlando Cabrera will get the at-bats that went to Valbuena (.195 average) last year. Choo and Hafner have been consistent the last two seasons and I expect the same this year. LaPorta is the question mark but if he flounders we have the option of platooning Buck and Duncan at first base. Either way we'll get better numbers than we got out of LaPorta and Jordan Brown last year.

I don't see how the offense won't score at least 10% more runs, and that's conservative. We had some awful hitters getting a lot of at-bats last year. We won't lead the league in home runs or stolen bases, but there are solid bats throughout the lineup. First and third base are the big question marks. If neither Hannahan or Donald hits there's the option of bringing up Chisenhall for the second half.

The defense should be better with Hannahan and/or Donald replacing Peralta, Nix, and Valbuena at third base. O. Cabrera, who won two Gold Gloves as a shortstop, improves the defense at second over Donald and Valbuena. Sizemore improves the outfield defense as a replacement for Crowe. Overall the defense should be better, especially in the infield.

The relief pitching should be pretty much the same since we have the same major players. The only loss is Jensen Lewis and that's not much of a loss. Otherwise it's the same crew that had a 2.99 ERA after the break. Durbin replaces Lewis, that's about it.

The starting pitching is the big question mark. Can Tomlin and Talbot pitch at this level? Is Carrasco ready or was last year just a tease ala' Jeremy Sowers' first season? Will Carmona and Masterson carry over their second half success from 2010 into 2011?

Worst case scenario is that Carrasco, Talbot, and Tomlin bomb while Carmona and Masterson go back to being inconsistent. We really don't have any good options if anybody in the rotation goes south. Huff and Gomez are next in line. Huff has a career ERA of 5.84 and Gomez probably isn't ready. This is a huge vulnerability until White and Pomeranz and Knapp are ready. The starting pitching will probably determine the level of success of the team this year because everything else looks pretty solid.
Prosecutor
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 965
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:51 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby ironmike » Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:59 am

Agree with Art Gold, team will lose more than 90 games.
User avatar
ironmike
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 656
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2010 5:28 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby TonyIBI » Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:39 am

I'll save my predictions for the upcoming roundtable Friday morning....but if this team stays relatively healthy and avoids any major injuries to key players then I don't see any reason why this team could win as many as 80 games. Hearing from a lot of people in the game that they could be turning the corner if they get some luck for once, and may make some noise this year.

Also, I am intrigued as hell by Buck. If that guy can stay healthy and is over his injury woes, I think the Indians may have found their new Casey Blake. Not in his versatility....but solid guy who they could count on for an OPS just a little north of .800 and with some pop (and cheap).
User avatar
TonyIBI
MLB Rookie
 
Posts: 5056
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:03 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby Hermie13 » Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:04 pm

Yeah I see 78-80 wins as a VERY realisitic prediction for the Tribe this year.


We obviously have holes and big concerns....but what team in the AL Central doesn't have them? I would not be shocked at all if a team won our division with only 85 wins and there are 4 teams with 78 wins or more (Royals being the loan exception).

The rotation not eating innings really doesn't concern me. Talbot and Masterson both threw up very impressive inning totals when you consider they were backend guys and they both more than doubled their previous inning totals. They should both build on that, especially Masterson who I'll be shocked if he doesn't throw 200.

Biggest thing that this club had to improve was defense and they've done that. Brantley should continue to improve and same with AC. I agree, health is a key plus some improvement from the young guys (LaPorta being a big one), but think it's very reasonable to be very optimistic about this club. Especially when you consider who could be coming up mid-season from AAA to give us a boost. :drinks:
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Mar 27, 2011 4:39 pm

@ hermie13 agreed the tribe could easily win 78-80 this yr I tried to be modest by saying 76 but if things go their way I believe they could win as many as 82. It will be the back of the rotation IMO that makes the difference. Curious with spring coming to an end what the final roster moves will be maybe the tribe will sign Carlos Silva or Jeremy Bonderman to fill out the backend of the rotation, although it's unlikely and Talbots bump to the 5 spot is not a vote of confidence for him.
Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco will both go a long way in the success of this yrs team if they both progress into their roles and Carmona posts similar numbers to last yr the back of the rotation won't matter as much. I believe we will see progress from both but also times of inconsistency which is fairly normal for young guys.
homerawayfromhome
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby Hermie13 » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:12 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:@ hermie13 agreed the tribe could easily win 78-80 this yr I tried to be modest by saying 76 but if things go their way I believe they could win as many as 82. It will be the back of the rotation IMO that makes the difference. Curious with spring coming to an end what the final roster moves will be maybe the tribe will sign Carlos Silva or Jeremy Bonderman to fill out the backend of the rotation, although it's unlikely and Talbots bump to the 5 spot is not a vote of confidence for him.
Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco will both go a long way in the success of this yrs team if they both progress into their roles and Carmona posts similar numbers to last yr the back of the rotation won't matter as much. I believe we will see progress from both but also times of inconsistency which is fairly normal for young guys.


No thanks on Silva. Too big a headache and really not an upgrade. Bonderman...I still like him, but he's not going to be ready anytime soon and with so many options at AAA (and even AA) we really don't need him.

Agree on Materson and Carrasco. I see lots of growign pains for Carrasco early, but think he'll settle down and finish on a strong note, setting him up for a very good 2012.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby indianinkslinger » Sun Mar 27, 2011 9:02 pm

I have the safest prediction. The Indians will have the lowest attendance revenues in baseball. Maybe the ticket reduction will get a few more fans but I would predict about 1.3M or less. The 2nd safest prediction is that the Indians will have the best record of any Cleveland professional franchise.

I predict the Indians will win more games than last year and will have a better record in the 2nd half of the season when they are likely to replace some of the weaker players on the roster, particlarly the fringe BOR starters, Tomlin and Talbot, and upgrade the relief pitching. While the problems of inexperience will be much greater, even with Sizemore and Johnson potentially added, the talent level of the players will have higher ceiling than those who start the season. My prediction is a 10% improvement but could reach 20% with good years from Sizemore and Johnson.

I predict 2011 will be the last year of "rebuilding" and the Indians start into a "replacement" phase. :clapping:
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby Lloyd Christmas » Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:18 pm

I have the safest prediction. The Indians will have the lowest attendance revenues in baseball. Maybe the ticket reduction will get a few more fans but I would predict about 1.3M or less. The 2nd safest prediction is that the Indians will have the best record of any Cleveland professional franchise.


I predict they will hype the hell out of a country music concert and snow days. Unfortunately these fantastic ideas will not change the guaranteed prediction that the Indians will once again have the lowest payroll of the 3 franchises you referenced. Also 0-0 is a better record than 72-90 so your 2nd prediction is a risky one.
Lloyd Christmas
Draft Prospect
 
Posts: 248
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:18 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:06 am

Lloyd Christmas wrote:
I have the safest prediction. The Indians will have the lowest attendance revenues in baseball. Maybe the ticket reduction will get a few more fans but I would predict about 1.3M or less. The 2nd safest prediction is that the Indians will have the best record of any Cleveland professional franchise.


I predict they will hype the hell out of a country music concert and snow days. Unfortunately these fantastic ideas will not change the guaranteed prediction that the Indians will once again have the lowest payroll of the 3 franchises you referenced. Also 0-0 is a better record than 72-90 so your 2nd prediction is a risky one.

Gotta hand it to you LC, when you're right, you're right. Maybe the best thing for all Cleveland teams! :smile:
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby Prosecutor » Mon Mar 28, 2011 10:04 am

I agree the Tribe should be better the second half for the following reasons.

1. Grady is going to need some time to ramp up to speed. Even if the knee is OK he'll need some time to find his timing and rhythm at the plate. He should be better in the second half.

2. LaPorta is totally screwed up at the plate. He's hitting a buck forty-eight. The report is that he's working on changing his swing. I don't expect him to hit much in the first half and after the break he'll be replaced by Johnson or Buck, which will be an improvement. Or LaPorta might struggle early but eventually find his swing in the second half. Either way we'll get better production from the position later in the season. MaTola looks suspiciously like Jeff Manto to me, though. Corner infielder, very good AAA bat, never could make the jump to the bigs. Hope I'm wrong.

3. I have no confidence in Mitch Talbot. I think he'll get knocked around and we'll find another starter to upgrade that spot in the second half. Could be Gomez, Huff, or White, depending on who emerges, or even McAlister.

4. They'll probably bring Chisenhall up to play third and he'll hit more than Donald or Hannahan.

5. The Indians always play better after they're out of contention.
Prosecutor
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 965
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:51 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby Prosecutor » Mon Mar 28, 2011 10:29 am

With respect to the defense being improved, here are some numbers from Pluto's column today:

Last season, the Indians had the worst infield defense in the American League, according to their own internal statistics. They ranked 12th out of 14 teams in fielding average.

The real trouble spot was the left side. The shortstops had 25 errors. Asdrubal Cabrera had 12 in 95 games, Jason Donald added nine in 47 games and Luis Valbuena chipped in with four in five games. With Orlando Cabrera and possibly Adam Everett (if he makes the team) as backup shortstops, that spot should be solid -- both veterans are above-average shortstops.

Third base was even worse, with 27 errors: Jhonny Peralta (five in 91 games), Jayson Nix (11 in 40 games), Andy Marte (nine in 45 games) and Valbuena (two in nine games).


Peralta looks like a Gold Glover in this group of 3rd basemen. Projected to 90 games, the number of errors each player made -

Peralta 5
Nix 25
Marte 18
Valbs 10

Projecting the shortstops to 95 games:

Cabrera 12
Donald 18
Valbs 76

OK, Valbuena only played nine games at short before he was mercifully moved out of there, but still, Cabrera's injury meant there was a 50% increase in errors when Donald replaced him. (By the way, if Valbuena ends up starting at shortstop for Columbus this year it's going to inflate the ERA's of the pitching staff since they will frequently need to get four outs to get out of the inning.)

I feel extremely confident in predicting the infield defense will be significantly improved. And with Grady taking over for Crowe the same can be said for the outfield, especially since the presence of Kearns and Buck means no Shelly Duncan in left field.

The offense has to be improved when you look at the hundreds of wasted at-bats that went to Marson, Valbuena and Crowe last year, not to mention the total inability of Brantley and LaPorta to hit before they were sent down.

I really can't see how this team will not be improved unless the pitching goes completely to hell.
Last edited by Prosecutor on Mon Mar 28, 2011 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Prosecutor
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 965
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:51 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Mon Mar 28, 2011 11:14 am

indianinkslinger wrote:The 2nd safest prediction is that the Indians will have the best record of any Cleveland professional franchise.

Not true... I just checked and the Lake Erie Monsters are 40-25 and in first place. It would take a 100 win season for the Indians to top that current mark. :tease:
User avatar
Pork Chop Pough
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 507
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 2:54 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby GhostofTedCox » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:06 am

Reviewing the predictions makes me chuckle. Some people were close to 80 wins. But how we got to 80 wins was the real story.

TonyIPI wrote:I'll save my predictions for the upcoming roundtable Friday morning....but if this team stays relatively healthy and avoids any major injuries to key players then I don't see any reason why this team could win as many as 80 games. Hearing from a lot of people in the game that they could be turning the corner if they get some luck for once, and may make some noise this year.

Also, I am intrigued as hell by Buck. If that guy can stay healthy and is over his injury woes, I think the Indians may have found their new Casey Blake. :s_laughat Not in his versatility....but solid guy who they could count on for an OPS just a little north of .800 and with some pop (and cheap).
User avatar
GhostofTedCox
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 727
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 11:24 pm

Re: 2011 predictions

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:03 am

Boy, am I glad I was wrong about the attendance count. Missed it by over 500K. Revenues were still at or near the bottom but were far better than I expected. Also wrong about first half versus 2nd half but it was close until the final 4 game losing streak. Sizemore and Johnson didn't provide much, if any, help but callups like Kipnis, Donald, Gomez, McAllister, Pestano and Chisenhall show promise for the future. It does look like rebuilding is on the downhill run and we are picking replacement players at this point. Not sure next years Tribe will look too much different than this years when health returns.
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm


Return to Beyond The Minors

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests