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Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

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Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby GhostofTedCox » Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:52 pm

Marlins FA set-up man Joe Nelson has received inquiries from 18 teams, but the Indians are in his "Fave Four". Acording to his agent Doug Schaer, the Indians have made an offer.
I guess this is good news. Nelson is a good RP. But how deep does the pen need to be? I think we have some guys that might be ML ready for those roles this year. Maybe we might be using Miller or Perez in a trade?

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ss ... t_150.html
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Jake Taylor » Fri Dec 19, 2008 10:01 pm

I would be outraged if we traded Perez, he's been the closest thing to dominance we've had out of our pen, and he's hardly a specialist.

Find someone that actually wants Kobayashi, and move on... (oh, if it were just that easy).
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby cardiackidz » Fri Dec 19, 2008 11:29 pm

i just dont think mark shapiro is dumb enought to trade raffy perez or atleast i hope not.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:34 am

While dnosco would like to deal Perez (in the right trade), I want Raffy left held onto.
IF we get Nelson, deal both Raffy right (betancourt) and Masa. Keep Meloan, Stevens and Adam Miller.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby dnosco » Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:38 am

Not saying he should be traded but Perez has MEGA value, Betancourt has little value. It seems like there are a number of fans who want to trade the guy who sucked last year and keep the guy who performed. With bullpen guys it should be just the opposite. Bullpen guys are so up and down that if you have a chance to replace one cheaply and get good value for the one you replaced, you do it.

Just my thoughts but trading Betancourt right now is probably pretty stupid unless you get for him what you could get for Perez. Otherwise why give Betancourt away for pennies when his chances of being dominant this year are probably pretty good, based on his career numbers.

Tough mindset to get into but you trade the good bullpen guy and keep the mediocre one because the odds of each having a good year in 2009 are about the same, IMHO.

Regarding Joe Nelson, when is this madness going to end. All that I have see with him is that his ERA last year was 2.03 in 50+ innings and his career ERA was 4.09 in slightly over 100 innings. Thus, before this year, he STUNK! Enough for me to say that he isn't any better than what we have and has a good chance to be worse.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:40 am

Denny, I thought you posted on TCF earlier today that you wanted to deal Raffy left???
Did you mis-type or did I mis-read?????
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby dnosco » Sat Dec 20, 2008 9:28 am

No, MT, I said that IF they signed Ohman they should deal Raffy. My point there and here is that you can't keep bringing in guys from other organizations and then dissing, waiving or trading for little value guys from our organization.

How many times do I have to read "So what, what did you expect to get him, he hasn't proven anything in the majors yet" or "He had his chances here and didn't do anything, not a great loss" and stuff like that when the above happens.

As far as trading Raffy it appears that fans look to trade the guy who performed worst LAST year. I look to trade the guy, at least in terms of relief pitchers, who performed THE BEST last year. He is worth more and, in my opinion, both have an equal chance to perform well in 2009, it's just that the better performer is worth much more.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby MadThinker88 » Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:24 pm

Denny,
While I understand the idea of selling him, I would not deal Perez unless I was so overwelmed that I would be crazy to refuse (ie here's a healthy CC for Raffy left and the Yanks are paying for the full contract of CC).

I feel Raffy right has a little more value then you are giving him credit for. By himself Raffy right is likely a salary dump. If dealt with someone like Shoppach and perhaps a mid-level prospect, the Tribe should be able to get a viable roster piece for the team as you will have @ 5M in salary right there.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby dnosco » Sat Dec 20, 2008 1:15 pm

If they are thinking they want Joe Nelson because he is cheaper than Betancourt then this team is doomed. Betancourt will be a stud this year. If they overpaid him when they gave him this contract then that is on them. Don't make the mistake worse by giving him away.

To address your point, if you have to package Betancourt to get rid of him then he must only have incremental value. That is, Betancourt, by himself, doesn't bring a good return. That is my point exactly. If we have extra reliever we trade the one with the most market value. We just don't dump someone because he cost too much for the production he gave us last year after good yearS before that and knowing that relievers have up and down years.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby npc29 » Sat Dec 20, 2008 3:17 pm

I'd have to agree with Dennis here on trading Betancourt. He has no value right now, at least not equal to that if he were to pitch well this year and leave in free agency if they don't pick up his option. I'd take a potential good year and a possible draft pick for him over whatever it is that we could get for him now.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby jellis » Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:26 pm

I totally agree with dennis on all fronts, not reason to trade betancourt and if you want a solid number 3 starter raffy Perez is a piece you might have to move because of his trade value of all of our pen guys he has the highest value by far
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby cardiackidz » Sat Dec 20, 2008 10:06 pm

dont trade either of the raffys please. it looks like we have the makings a really good bullpen dont start trading 2 of baseballs best set up men. joe nelson has had one good year other then that he looks like a journeyman.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby TonyIBI » Sun Dec 21, 2008 2:11 am

Why is everyone consistently bringing up Betancourt or Perez as guys we should trade if we sign one of these FA relievers we are supposedly in on? No way. Those guys are key pieces to this pen we need. If we trade anyone, you trade some of the young depth. I love Meloan, Stevens, and Miller....but if one plus another player or two gets us a starting pitcher or starting infielder, I am game.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby MadThinker88 » Sun Dec 21, 2008 12:10 pm

Tony
I bring up trading Raffy right becuase of the contract he has. I'm thinking asset management.

Additionally, starting pitching isn't cheap so I was figuring a package of Shoppach & Raffy would help to offset the cost of adding that pitcher (say roughly 5M vs 10M for the starter).
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby cardiackidz » Sun Dec 21, 2008 6:21 pm

thank god somebody also knows what it takes to have a good bullpen. thank you tony!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 22, 2008 10:13 am

Trading Perez just because you sign Ohman makes no sense. You need to have 2 lefties in the pen. Rundles is hardly a sure thing in the MLs. Jackson isn't really a reliever. Sipp has had some shoulder soreness and has been removed from winter ball. So adding a lefty (and not trading one) makes PERFECT sense for this club that's very thin on lefty pitching in the pen.


Now, if you get an 'offer you can't refuse' for Perez (think Giles for Rincon only in reverse for the Tribe) then I'd take it.....but barring that, he should stay.

I'd trade Betancourt.....but again, only if you got a very good deal (which I don't think is out there). He may be a free agent after this year (we're not picking up his option).

Kobayashi could possibly be traded (I could see Boston taking a shot at him)......but not sure it's a good idea trading the first Japanese free agent you sign after 1 year (sends a bad message to other potential Japanese players).


I'm all for trading the young guys too (especially Stevens) if it gets you something really nice. Heck, I'd even consider trading JLewis (though I do really like him).
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby dnosco » Mon Dec 22, 2008 12:45 pm

Consigliere wrote:Why is everyone consistently bringing up Betancourt or Perez as guys we should trade if we sign one of these FA relievers we are supposedly in on? No way. Those guys are key pieces to this pen we need. If we trade anyone, you trade some of the young depth. I love Meloan, Stevens, and Miller....but if one plus another player or two gets us a starting pitcher or starting infielder, I am game.


Agreed...but it won't. These guys are HUGE question marks. I guarantee, if the Indians are forced to give them good, meaningful shots (not just in service time but in innnings and appropriate situations) all three of them will be five times as valuable in trade next off-season as they currently have. Frankly, except for Miller, these guys have very little inherent trade value as they have proven nothing in the big leagues and have even had some hiccups on big stages (Olympics and major leagues) and what team would trade a starter we would want (read: relatively young and relatively reasonably priced) with Meloan and Stevens being central pieces?

So there is the problem: the guys you want to trade are essentially worthless IN TRADE RIGHT NOW (except for Miller) and the guys who have the value you don't want to trade. So, you can wish and hope that other teams value our prospects at or near what we value them at but I thought we had already established that that doesn't happen.

So,

(1) you don't sign Nelson so you can trade Betancourt or Lewis. They just don't equate and, most likely, you are overvaluing Nelson and trading Betancourt low.

(2) you don't sign Ohman. He locks in your bullpen leaving you without a swing guy. In addition, though Rundles is anything but a sure thing he is the last guy in your bullpen. I think we can gamble a little with the last spot in the bullpen instead of (a) signing for multiple years some overpriced guy and, in so doing (b) locking out prospects for those multiple years.

We go with what we have. If the 7th guy in our bullpen is the most shaky spot we have going in to the season we are good to go, IMHO. This baseball card collecting mentality of getting every spot on the roster filled with a proven veteran is just not the way I want to do business nor, in my opinion, is the way a small market club should do business...and history shows us that it doesn't work with Shapiro at the helm.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby petes999 » Mon Dec 22, 2008 1:14 pm

I guess my question is, if we sign Nelson and round out our pen. Then we trade 1 or 2 of our AAA talent (Sipp, Stevens, Meloan), what the H will we do next year?

Due to the 25 man roster, we lose Mujica and Jackson due to out of options.

We lose Bentancourt and Kobi next year as they will probably be too price to pick up their options. Miller who would be a call-up this year with either one of the 3 who remain, will be converted to starter. So, we have one reliever really ready to fill in for the two open slots, let alone a third if Woods goes down with only Perez and Lewis ready to fill in at closer as we traded most of our talented trio.

Yeah we have Roehl, Burton, Stiller or Rundles. Yet, those guys haven't wowed me like a Stevens or Sipp have. I rather pass on Nelson and develop from within.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 22, 2008 2:34 pm

Will Miller be converted to a starter?? Most guys that need to be moved to the pen because of arm injuries don't go back to the rotation. It happens.....but mostly stay in the pen, even guys with as good of stuff as Miller.

And right now, Miller's stuff is much better suited for the pen anyways. You really need a 3rd pitch to be an effective ML starter (at least at the front). Miller does have a third, but has been scrapping it lately in the pen. Some guys can get by with only 2 as a starter.....but I don't see Miller doing it.

If we sign Nelson it'll likely be for more than 1 year. So we'd have 2 open spots heading into 2009 if we let Betancourt and Kobayashi go.

You can't make all your moves worrying about the year after. Obviously you don't sell the farm, but trading an area of depth makes sense still.




And NO WAY do guys like Stevens and Meloan have '5 times' the trade value next winter just by pitching at the ML level. Both have trade value now. It'd go up with some ML experience but no setup guy will see his value jump that high in one year with only 1 year of ML experience, plain and simple.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby npc29 » Wed Dec 24, 2008 5:33 pm

Nelson to the Rays... Crisis avoided.. haha
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby jellis » Wed Dec 24, 2008 11:26 pm

yeah depth is good, but I bet the offer to him was very low seeing if they could add depth for cheap and then trade a as of yet unproven arm
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Dec 26, 2008 10:15 am

npc29 wrote:Nelson to the Rays... Crisis avoided.. haha


ha, not sure how it was a crisis....but solid move for the Rays.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby cardiackidz » Fri Dec 26, 2008 11:47 am

thank god he's off the market, the guy is a journeyman reliever for god sake.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Dec 26, 2008 1:02 pm

cardiackidz wrote:thank god he's off the market, the guy is a journeyman reliever for god sake.


so was Paul Assenmacher yet he was key to our 1995 team....


I'd have taken Nelson's 1.19 WHIP, 2.00 ERA, and 0.8 HR/9 anyday of the week and twice on Tuesdays. The Rays just got themselves a solid reliever that will only help them defend their East crown this coming year.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby TheWord » Fri Dec 26, 2008 2:41 pm

If you expect him to put up those numbers again, considering that even after last season his career ERA is over 4 and his first experience in the AL was soundly less than stellar....you'd be in for a ton of disappointment.


As much as I'd like to believe a 34 year old journeyman is going to go 2 full runs below his career ERA, I'm not going to hold my breath.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Dec 26, 2008 2:51 pm

His WHIP was only a bit higher (1.37) and his HR/9 was still low (1.0). ERA was higher.....but could also be due to playing for the Royals (meaning if one guy got on base...he was gonna score if someone else was brought in).

His ERA is kinda pointless....has a career 1.36 WHIP.....he could easily put up lower than that again this year. Didn't cost a whole lot either.

And he's only had 2 years with more than 3 ML innings....one had a 1.37 WHIP (and 4.33 ERA)...the other he had a 1.19 WHIP (and 2.00 ERA). Even if he's in between those numbers he'll be an above average reliever. He strikes out more than a batter an inning too.

AND even more important....those two years his BAA was .226 and .207......VERY solid.


Not saying i'm dissapointed to see him sign elsewhere....but he'd have been a nice arm. Again, great pickup for the Rays.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby dnosco » Fri Dec 26, 2008 5:24 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
cardiackidz wrote:thank god he's off the market, the guy is a journeyman reliever for god sake.


so was Paul Assenmacher yet he was key to our 1995 team....


I'd have taken Nelson's 1.19 WHIP, 2.00 ERA, and 0.8 HR/9 anyday of the week and twice on Tuesdays. The Rays just got themselves a solid reliever that will only help them defend their East crown this coming year.


Hermie,

C'mon. How old is the guy? How many good years has he had?

As Rotoworld put it when they heard about the signing: "Good for him [Nelson]". By that they meant good for Nelson that he cashed in on the one good year of his career. That about sums it up right there, I think. The guy had a fluke year. You don't pay for a fluke year.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby cardiackidz » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:09 pm

assenmacher had a long solid career before he pitched for the indians. he was a much better pitcher the joe nelson ever dreamed of being.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 10:20 am

Nelson had a good year in 2006 as well. He'll be a solid (if healthy) for the Rays.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby TheWord » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:34 pm

If by good year you mean ERA over 4.40 and a WHIP slightly under 1.40, then yes he had a good year.

That's not what I would call a good year, more like mediocre.

Probably below average given his salary of 1.3 million.

It's certainly replaceable without spending the 1.3
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 2:09 pm

And a BAA under .240, HR/9 of only 1.0, and nearly a strikeout an inning....so yes, a pretty good year. ERA is the most overrated stat for a reliever and shouldn't even really be looked at.

For $1.3M he'll likely be a bargain.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby TheWord » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:21 pm

You're going to tell me you can't find something just as suitable for less than that?

You're insane.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:34 pm

On the open market? Name me someone then.


The Rays have boat loads of starters in their system, but are short on bullpen help. It was a good move by them (why are we still arguing this now?)....
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby TheWord » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:36 pm

No, in our farm system

Is it that hard to get a guy who can have people hit .240 with a 1.40 WHIP? With all the guys we have here?

Hard to believe.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby TheWord » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:43 pm

Ed Mujica:

WHIP: 1.45 HR/9: 1.2

Zach Jackson:

WHIP: 1.43 HR/9: 1.2
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:05 pm

TheWord wrote:Ed Mujica:

WHIP: 1.45 HR/9: 1.2

Zach Jackson:

WHIP: 1.43 HR/9: 1.2


Mujica K/9: 6.3

Jackson's K/9: 4.9

Mujica's BAA the last 3 seasons: .333, .333, .331

Jackson's BAA last year: .313 with the Brewers, .292 with Cleveland.


so yeah, it is hard to find a guy that has the K-rate he has and low BAA and WHIP.


Jackson was also a starter the entire time in Cleveland......hard to say how he'd do as a reliever. Some guys do better, others struggle (some starters take too long to warm up and it hurts then coming out of the pen in the middle of a game).


O, and with runners on base, Mujica had a 1.63 WHIP and a .333 BAA.

Nelson with runners on base had a 1.27 WHIP and a .219 BAA. And in 2006 with runners on base Nelson had a 1.35 WHIP and a .225 BAA (and with RISP it was even better, .189 BAA). Don't know about you, but I'd much rather bring in a guy like Nelson late in a game than a guy like Mujica.


That being said, I do hope that mujica gets a shot coming out of camp. He does have a nice arm....but the numbers game may force him out.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby TheWord » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:22 pm

I wasn't pointing out that they are mirror images of each other, I was merely point out that production could at least be somewhat similar for the league minimum basically.

Nelson is a mediocre reliever, there really isn't much more you can say.

Good for him, he got paid.

We don't really need him that much when we have a ton of depth in this organization.
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Re: Joe Nelson: Bullpen may be deeeep!

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 30, 2008 9:57 am

ha, well I agreed 'we' didn't really need him. But was a nice pickup for the Rays and would have been a nice addition to our team. O well, moving on.......


Will be intersting if any of the Ohman rumors are true and if we are really looking at adding another reliever.....
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