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what else is shapiro going to do?

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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 10:13 am

jellis wrote:spent some time looking at teams that at the MLB level could consider shoppach

Ari- Chirs Synder is the starter but SP wise the best we could get would be Doug Davis

LAA- interesting team to me have been shopping there catchers and if they lose out on Tex they will need to add power somewhere, maybe a weaver or saunders. There number one spec Adenhart sepnt all year in AAA. I wont lie always been a big Saunders fan. Plus the deal could get large has they have 3 guys for 2 positions in Figgins, kendrick, and brandon wood


Arizona does'nt need a catcher at all. In fact they have two right now and may look to trade one. Same with the Angels.....though I kinda get what you're looking at here....though I think our best hope with the Angels would be getting involved in a 3-team deal for Peavy (Peavy goign to the Angels). Throw two starters at the Padres and try and get Kendrick or a pitcher like Saunders, Weaver, or Santana.......not likely at all though.....
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby GhostofTedCox » Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:18 pm

Well, it looks like the Braves will be the winners in the Rafael Furcal sweepstakes. This will give the Braves an excess of middle infielders. Yunel Escobar is a good SS with some power that would allow Peralta to move to 3B. But the name that intrigues me is 2B Kelly Johnson. Here's a young guy that can give you double/double in HR/SB, and had 69 RBI last season. Yet people say he did not quite have a breakthrough season yet. The Braves seem to be coming up short in SP. I would offer one of our young SP, (but not Miller).
Heck, if the Braves are interestd in bringing back former organization players like Fucal, maybe they would take Marte back! :s_laughat
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:42 pm

I mentioned Johnson on another board. Depending on how they feel about Johnson in LF (which he played his rookie year), they may keep him or not. Also, their 1B situation could be something to keep an eye on.

Possibly parting with Garko (or Shoppach if they would move McCann to 1B) and a pitcher (Laffey or Huff most likely) for Johnson and a minor leaguer (I value Garko more than most I do realize). The Braves did get Casey Kotchman in the Tex deal with the Angels.....depends on how they feel about him. Personally I'm not sold he'll ever be a full-time starting 1B in this league, and I think Garko (or Shoppach with the move) would improve that club.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Dec 16, 2008 1:18 pm

Yeah, Kelly Johnson is indeed very interesting. If we could package Laffey, Hodges and Garko, perhaps they'll bite. The problem is though that parting with Laffey is pretty painful, because it would mean that either Sowers or Lewis will be a mainstay in the rotation and I'm not a big fan of them. I also think that the package I just mentioned would be the best for us, but it's likely the Braves will ask for better players.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby TheWord » Tue Dec 16, 2008 2:22 pm

Kotchman is a GG caliber first baseman and 2 years younger than Garko. His ceiling is way above Garko's and isn't that far off in offensive production either.

They would want more than a guy who's ceiling is a 5th starter and Hodges. I think it would take probably Huff and Hodges to start, probably a young pitching prospect as well.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 16, 2008 2:42 pm

If they want that for an 'ok' 2B then you pass. Johnson is not worth that much. His OBP isn't high enough to hit leadoff so his value isn't that high. Also, Huff's and Laffey's ceiling are higher than a 5th starter. That's pretty much their floor.

Not saying Garko is an ideal 1B, but he's better suited there than Kotchman. Kotchman lacks the power to really be a true 1B in the league. Can get away with it a bit in the NL I suppose though. Kotchman has never hit 20 HRs in a season, whereas Garko had every year since 2003 til this past year. Some think that Kotchman will develop 25 HR power...but he's already 25 and has yet to show it (had a career high 14 last year). Slugged a whopping .316 after the trade......could have been the trade and just him pressing. I know he missed a bit of time there as well.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby TheWord » Tue Dec 16, 2008 3:14 pm

Kotchman most certainly has 20 HR potential, he's still young and even so, he doesn't have to be a home run threat to be effective. He was hurt on and off once getting to ATL and had a tough time adjusting, even so his time with the Angels shows that he definitely has the potential, enough that they aren't going to trade for more of the same in Garko and take away defense and years.

I agree with you on Huff, but you would have a REALLY hard time convincing me Laffey's ceiling is any higher than a 4th or 5th starter, floor would be a non-starter like we saw when he was ineffective enough to get sent back to the minors on a bad team. I guess you could make a pitch that he could eventually become a 3rd starter, but with his stuff he seems more like a back of the rotation guy.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 16, 2008 3:42 pm

Kotchman isn't that young though. Will be 26 on opening day and has never hit 15 HRs in a season. He's already arbitration eligbible too (unlike Garko). He's got more ML at-bats than Garko yet has fewer HRs, a worse BA, a worse OBP, and a worse SLG (thus a worse OPS as well). He does have potential....but needs to start showing it.

Garko has also shown he can handle both righties and lefties well (His career OPS against righties alone is better than Kotchman's career OPS against either righties or lefties). As a matter of fact, Kotchman hadn't hit a HR off a lefty til this year in the MLs and never had much power against them in the minors.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby TheWord » Tue Dec 16, 2008 4:09 pm

I agree Kotchman's numbers don't match up with Garko...yet.

But as I said, they aren't THAT far off that they would replace him with marginally better talent who can barely play 1st, certainly doesn't seem like the type of move the Braves would make.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 16, 2008 4:41 pm

Yet? Garko has less experience and is better. Had a down year but still had a great second half. How much more time does Kotchman need? Better yet, how much better will Garko get with more experience? Kotchman was arbitration eligible last year even (was a super-two). Going to make $2.5M and possibly $3M in 2009. Meanwhile Garko will be making less than $500K.


I just don't see Kotchman haven't a breakout yeat this year or the year after. He'll be an good glove at first base but nothing overly special with that bat.

And Garko is better than a guy that 'can barely play 1st'. Definately not in Kotchman's class defensively, but he has improved. Plus with Furcal next to him at 2B (assuming Furcal and not Escobar would move there), he wouldn't be expected to be a defensive wiz there.


And like I said, they may also be interested in Shoppach. They could use the power he'd provide and use McCann at 1B. I just don't see Johnson's bat being a good play in LF. They may find a better offer out there I suppose. But Johnson's value isn't that high.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby jellis » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:12 am

I think your missing the obvious, hasnt the plan been to move CHipper back to the OF to cut down on wear and tear. I see Furcal at SS Johnson at 2B and Yunel will now play 3B. At least thats what makes the most sense to me.


I dont get how you can see Garko as an upgrade to kotchman. Kotchman has much much better defense. garko only has one year where he hit over 20 HRS and that year he hit 21, Kotchman was on pace for 18 before he switched leagues and had some trouble adjusting, but the small difference in Hrs is balanced by the doubles Kotchman hits. In the end they are very similar but Kotchman is younger and a better glove. No way ATl would view Garko as an upgrade.

They wont want Shoppach or a Garko ATl as much more pressing needs and wont trade any asset unless they get a solid pitcher not a laffey or sowers, since that is there major weakness. If nothing else with the signings or furcal and Burnett we might see ATl-SD trade talks renew
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby jellis » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:14 am

and furcal hasnt signed yet and might not
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby cardiackidz » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:40 am

i would much rather have kotchman then garko. he's well below average on defense and he didnt show up last year till august. the only reason he was even playing is because he's a wedge guy. garko was just god awful for most of last season. the atlanta paper is saying furcal is going to 2nd and johnson if not traded is going to the outfiled. i wouldnt mind having johnson, i just dont see what the tribe has that atlanta needs.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:03 am

jellis wrote:I think your missing the obvious, hasnt the plan been to move CHipper back to the OF to cut down on wear and tear. I see Furcal at SS Johnson at 2B and Yunel will now play 3B. At least thats what makes the most sense to me.


I dont get how you can see Garko as an upgrade to kotchman. Kotchman has much much better defense. garko only has one year where he hit over 20 HRS and that year he hit 21, Kotchman was on pace for 18 before he switched leagues and had some trouble adjusting, but the small difference in Hrs is balanced by the doubles Kotchman hits. In the end they are very similar but Kotchman is younger and a better glove. No way ATl would view Garko as an upgrade.

They wont want Shoppach or a Garko ATl as much more pressing needs and wont trade any asset unless they get a solid pitcher not a laffey or sowers, since that is there major weakness. If nothing else with the signings or furcal and Burnett we might see ATl-SD trade talks renew


I haven't read anything about moving Chipper back to the OF, though I suppose that could be an option. Didn't think he liked it out there and feels much more comfortable at 3B. Johnson played only LF his rookie year, makes more sense to move him back out there if moving anyone.

Don't see how Garko is an upgrade over Kotchman? Garko has only one year of 20+ HRs at the ML level...but has hit over 20 consistently in the minors, UNLIKE Kotchman who has NEVER hit 20 in ANY season at ANY level.

And how can people say Gutierrez was never gonna reach his potential when he was only 25 last year, but say Kotchman is better than Garko? Gut is the same age as Kotchman and was nearly as highly touted at one point. Gut's career SLG pct is .409....Kotchman's is .413. Gut had more 20HR seasons in the minors than Kotchman (who has ZERO). Kotchman has show more plate discipline than Gut though....but other than that, Kotchman has shown little to warrant ever being a starting 1B. In over 400 more at-bats than Gut, Kotchman has only managed to hit 11 more HRs and only has a 32 point margin in career OPS (.749 vs. .717).


You say Garko didn't show up til August....which is valid. But Kotchman didn't show up hardly at all. Had an 'ok' first half, but Garko (even with the bad start) had a better year. You don't need a GG 1B to win in this league, defense there is the least important of any position. Always nice to have a solid guy there, but doesn't put Kotchman over Garko.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby jellis » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:03 pm

he had a solid first half with ANH, his numbers struggled when he switched to ATL. I am not argueing that Kotchman is a lot better or even better at all. I am just argueing that its not a big enough difference for ATL to make a trade or want Garko. Your looking at it as an indians fan. ATl is going to trade an asset for a lateral move.
I think the issue with Kotchman and Gut is the same not enough of team in the majors to really know for sure what you have, the difference between the two is Gut's plate recongition has shown zero improvement in 5 years, which can be scouted and shown.

For Atl if they move Johnson it wont be for 1B who is a minor if any improvement, and a pitcher with no track record, they will be looking for what the indians are a numnber 3 type pitcher. No one has really talked about moving chipper right now, but during the year it came up often espeically when he got hurt yet again, so I think they would revisit the idea
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:21 pm

I just see Garko as a much better option than Kotchman. If Kotchman and Garko were both free agents, I'd take Garko hands down everytime. Defense is not what you 'need' at 1B, it's hitting and Garko has done it everywhere including the MLs. His second half after getting benched shows me that he does really care, and I feel he's gonna have a big year in 2009. Personally I'd much rather trade Shoppach than Garko if I had the choice.


I also feel over 1200 at-bats is enough to know what you got with a player (which is what Kotchman has...is nearly at 1300 in fact). I mean, Marte has barely over 500 and people call him a straight up bust (though he's clearly shown less than Kotchman).

Shoppach would also be a big improvement for a team that could use some power (team leader was McCann with only 23). McCann is a pretty lousy catcher (only throws out about 20% runners each year). Shoppach in a bad year did that (typically is much better). McCann does reportedly call a good game....but so does Shoppach. They are also a tad thin at catcher after dealing Flowers and Salty in back-to-back years. Maybe not the best fit, but things could get worked out.

Not a ton of teams that really fit in with a big need for 2B. Perphaps the White Sox (again) if they deal Dye. Cardinals have had talks for Ludwick.....but can't really provide any pitching help that the Braves wanted. Royals could be a dark horse here....
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby jellis » Wed Dec 17, 2008 1:24 pm

still why would you aquire strength, it makes little sense. I think Garko and Kotchman are very even talents. I am a garko fan too, so I think he might actually be better than Kotchman. Mccann is one of the best in the NL and an all star every year, so they wont take on a catcher.

teams can always use a flexible player who can play all over, Johnson is a major trade chip and I think he will only move for pitching

Kotchman has had a lot of AB, but many where in spilt time, he only had 2 years where he got every day AB's
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 17, 2008 1:39 pm

I agree McCann is one of the best in the NL (or all of the MLs for that matter)....but only offensively. There isn't a 'great' fit with us....but I still think adding Shoppach to their lineup (or Garko) with the extra power would be better for them. They could get a better offer some someone else....like I said, I'd watch out for the Royals. Saw a crazy rumor that makes a bit of sense.....Guillen and Grienke to the Braves for Johnson and a couple prospects (Heyward and Hanson likely off limites, but anyone else would be fair game). Not the most likely of scenarios....but the Braves could use a LF with some pop and of course pitching. Royals could use a 2B (Grudz isn't coming back) and they could use the ML ready prospects (Schafer would be nice along with a pitcher).


Another possibility for the Indians is including Meloan or Stevens. Braves could use some bullpen help (Gonzalez had an off year and Ohman is likely gone). With the additions of Wood and Smith we have the ability to move some young bullpen arms.....
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby TheWord » Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:19 pm

Problem is, Shoppach or Garko is a marginal upgrade AT BEST over Kotchman. Why would they give up something of value to us just to make a marginal upgrade, you can rationalize it anyway you want to, the Braves would have no interest in giving us a good player just to take on something they already have, only slightly better.

They need to upgrade their ballclub, not give up their talent for something they don't need.
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:22 pm

Well I see it differently. I think both Shoppach and Garko are more than 'marginal' upgrades over Kotchman. They're not giving up value for a marginal upgrade. And they'd also be getting a solid 4-5 starter in return.

They need more power and more pitching....they'd be getting both.


Others obviously have different opinions about how good kotchman will become....I just don't see it. He could win a GG at 1B...but I dont' see him being a consistent 20 HR guy....
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:50 pm

All may be a moot point now, as it appears the Dodgers are now about to sign Furcal.....ah, internet rumors.....gotta love 'em....
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby jellis » Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:37 pm

all that arguing for nothing its a shame
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Dec 18, 2008 9:48 am

ha, it's never a shame to argue about the Indians and baseball ;)
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Dec 18, 2008 10:52 am

jellis wrote:all that arguing for nothing its a shame


Maybe unproductive would be a better word in this case. :s_biggrin
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Re: what else is shapiro going to do?

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Dec 18, 2008 10:54 am

indianinkslinger wrote:Maybe unproductive would be a better word in this case. :s_biggrin


ha, isn't everything about a message board 'unproductive' though? ;)
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