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Gutierrez On the Way Out?

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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby petes999 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:57 pm

O.K. I may have overvalued Shoppach and Gut ... that's why I say throw in a reliever or more if I overvalued them....

Yet, MadThinker .... Barfield having value???? At least Gut is a gold glove defensive replacement. What does Barfield have???

But, if Shoppach is going to get value it is with Boston and NY.... So we may have to throw in some other pieces, yet what do NY and Boston need??? Catching mainly and OF and relievers secondary. They have no other catchers in their system until low A ball ....

NY Starters ... CC, Wang, Burnett, possibly Pettite/Lowe, JoBa, Aceves (did the best of the rookies) and then Hughes and Kennedy .... where do they all fit???? Needs, Catcher, OF and relievers .... (sounds like our strengths)

Boston Starters .... Beckett, Dice K, Lester, Wakefield and then Buccholz, Bowden and Masterson where do they fit in??? Weakness, Catching, OF, relievers (sound familiar) ....

There is a package there that we can do ... maybe we give up some prospects especially a Meloan or Stevens... yet what catchers are out there that have defense and offense skills? Not much ... OF are a dime a dozen except if they have a special skill (defense, HR hitter, etc.) ... We already had some reliever depth ... something may have worked ... just saying ...

So what will Shoppach get us ??? Would he get us a #3 if we can't even get a highly regarded prospect from a team in need of catching with excess starting prospects ????

So Gut did not get us a lot ... yet if he didn't Barfield, Mujica, Raffy sure as heck aren't. Shoppach is the only only left plus prospects... If he can't get us Masterson or Buccholz maybe then Bowden ...

And Hughes is on his last string in NY .... Kennedy has a shot ... yet why is NY loading up on starting pitching if they don't trust prospects in the pressure cooker of NY ....

The main point is if we wanted infield solution ... you don't trade your 2nd most valuable ML trading chip (next to Shoppach) for a solution in 2010 unless they think Barfield was 2009 piece. I would have preferred just a step up of Valbuena that could step in. And, if Barfield is an option then why get Valbuena unless Hodges is definitely not the 3B in 2010. Valbuena just got us an option in 2010 for our trading chip ... yet messed up 2009 due to not having that many more trading chips for #3 starter, especially if Shoppach can't even get us a prospect pitcher.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby TheWord » Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:05 pm

We could essentially fill two needs with one backup OF.

The deal hinges on Valbuena, if he can be a solid contributor, Shapiro has proven once again he can make a great trade for next to nothing.

Call Guty what you will, even if he was our "2nd best trade chip," which is certainly debatable, his value certainly isn't high enough to get us a 2nd baseman or MOR starter.

If you really think Shoppach can be the main chip in a trade for a starter, you could just as easily put Trevor Crowe or Brantley in place of Gutierrez and either of them would probably have more value at this point.

Gutierrez got us a solid MR and a 2B prospect capable of starting, I'll take that any day of the week.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby MadThinker88 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:32 pm

petes999 wrote:Barfield having value???? At least Gut is a gold glove defensive replacement. What does Barfield have???


Josh does bring a solid glove at 2B, but value takes many forms. Josh has value for us as a platoon partner at 2nd (with Carroll, assuming the ACab/Jhonny shift).

There may be another club out there that sees something in Josh they like and they believe the other problems he has are correctable by them.

Do I believe Josh is the one piece we need in order to get a SP? No
I think the more important deal piece at this time for a trade is Smith as it will enable Raffy right to be dealt.
Luis V maybe the more important piece in the deal later on.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby petes999 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:47 pm

TheWord wrote:We could essentially fill two needs with one backup OF.

.....

Gutierrez got us a solid MR and a 2B prospect capable of starting, I'll take that any day of the week.


Don't get me wrong ... I kind of like the trade. I just wished we found a more ready 2nd baseman than getting a reliever.

I was never in the mindset that we had a need for relievers .... just a closer which we had lined up that night in Wood. The upside value of a Smith over our AAA relievers of Stevens, Sipp or Meloan is nothing (actually costs us). Yet, there must have been some value if NY gave him up. All I meant was add that value to Valbuena and get someone to step in for Barfield April 1 so the deal doesn't have to hinge on Valbuena repeating his success last year.

TheWord wrote:If you really think Shoppach can be the main chip in a trade for a starter, you could just as easily put Trevor Crowe or Brantley in place of Gutierrez and either of them would probably have more value at this point.


I look at it this way SP #3 > SP prospect > 2nd base (by far) and SP #3 > Catcher > 3rd base > 2nd base (in general value of trades). I would rather put Barfield and Marte out there than leaving our pitching staff vulnerable due to the value of a good staff. Thus, I rather have Shoppach and Francisco/Gut available for that pitcher.

I just don't now if we have the value to go after a #3 pitcher unless we give up a Laporta or Santana. Thus, that was my point of keeping Gut for a possible pitching trade.

And, yeah ... Gut was the 2nd most valuable of what we had excess of .... Shoppach > Gut > Garko (1st base is dime a dozen) > Mujica > Marte/Barfield .... Raffy R and Kobi would be around Gut after last season ... Raffy R has very little value until he pitches inside.

Yeah, Choo and Francisco were a bit more valuable. Yet, you had 1 OF available for now ... at least until you solidified Laporta in OF and not needing to replace Hafner. If Hafner bombed, you have in 2010 ... Grady, Francisco, Choo and one of Crowe or Brantley (figure only 1 of 2 prospects in AAA make it). Kind of thin until 2011 with Weglarz. Do you really want to give up Choo/Francisco now especially if there is a small chance Choo decides to do his tour of duty? I guess we have Brown and Head ... yet there value is not much when they could have been had for $50,000.

And, Brantley and Crowe have no value to NY and Boston as their prospects are a dime a dozen. They look for who will help me April 1 .... August 1 ... and in the playoffs. Gut as a 4th/5th outfielder would be good to them.

Lastly, I think we undervalue the trade value of a starting catcher .... I know Laird was traded for 2 pitching prospects yet he is still unproven. AJ Peirzynski got a haul yet that was some time ago and he is better than Shoppach (.300 HR 10 type at that time) but not by much (versus .260 20HR - see Dunn more HR yet outfielder).

Remember that Paul LoDuca was traded with Juan Encarnacion and Guillermo Mota to the Marlins for Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny, and minor league pitching prospect Bill Murphy at the 2004 trading deadline. He was a .280-.290 15 HR player at that time.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby jellis » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:01 pm

laird went for almost nothing that detriot system in the worst in the central almost barren and they got a fireball MR with no control whose 4 to 5 years away and a SP with arm troubles who has never pitched beyond AA who was the tigers 8th best spec. He would have been about 20 something in clevelands system that's how bat Detriots farm system is after procello

Bos is not going to trade Bucholz because they would be selling low and they are a team that never sells low, they cant trade masterson because hes too important to there team and I am no a fan of bowden so really who would we get out of that team

From the yanks I would love hughes, but please no kennedy he has been over rated since day 1 since he played ok as a rookie, the stuff is just not there
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby TheWord » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:04 pm

petes999 wrote:
TheWord wrote:I look at it this way SP #3 > SP prospect > 2nd base (by far) and SP #3 > Catcher > 3rd base > 2nd base (in general value of trades). I would rather put Barfield and Marte out there than leaving our pitching staff vulnerable due to the value of a good staff. Thus, I rather have Shoppach and Francisco/Gut available for that pitcher.

I just don't now if we have the value to go after a #3 pitcher unless we give up a Laporta or Santana. Thus, that was my point of keeping Gut for a possible pitching trade.




So essentially you're saying we can't replace Gutierrez in a trade unless it's with Santana or LaPorta?

Thats ridiculous.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:06 pm

artgold wrote:Joe Smith gave up an earned run in 19 of his 82 appearances last season (23% of his games).

Last season, Betancourt gave up an earned run in 23 of his 69 appearances last season (33% of his games). Now in his great season (2007) he gave up a run in 13 of 68 appearances (19% of his games).

Considering this performance by Smith includes his "lefty troubles", it seems to me that we have the potential for someone to put up "Benancourt 2007" numbers with just a slight improvement in performance against lefties.


Art,

I must not be getting this. Betancourt averaged more than an inning per outing in his worst year. Smith averaged about 3/4 of an inning per outing and faced and outrageous ratio of 50 LH to 182 RH (Betancourt was 119 to 156). When you are in the game for 1 or 2 batters, all of which you usually have a great matchup against, shouldn't you have a much less chance to give up a run?
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby petes999 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:07 pm

MadThinker88 wrote: Josh does bring a solid glove at 2B, but value takes many forms. Josh has value for us as a platoon partner at 2nd (with Carroll, assuming the ACab/Jhonny shift).

There may be another club out there that sees something in Josh they like and they believe the other problems he has are correctable by them.


I see the point. Yet, can we agree that Barfield has minimal trade value. If Philips had only enough to get us Stevens (before he was anything more than a #20-30 type prospect), than Barfield will not get us much more if that. Philips had a great ST and was still a great toolsy prospect, just showed nothing up at the Bigs. Barfield had one good season in the Bigs but is not as toolsy .... So let's say they equate. Don't expect much.

MadThinker88 wrote:No I think the more important deal piece at this time for a trade is Smith as it will enable Raffy right to be dealt.


I thought Raffy became available when we got Wood. That gave us Wood/Perez/Lewis/Kobi with Mujica, Jackson, Stevens and Meloan ready. I think Smith is good, yet we had other pieces in Stevens and Meloan. Yet, if you are saying Raffy is just a righty specialist now, what kind of value do we get for him that Raffy = Smith and we got Smith for 1/2 of a Gut.

Your point there is more to come ... then great we have flexibility.

However, trading prospects in the 10-20 range will get you nothing of real value. Gut had the value of a #4-#8 prospect (factoring Valbuena was #11 and we got that and a bit more in Smith). So in a game of poker do you trade a Jack for a 4 and 6 ... even though 4 and 6 are more than Jack in numbers, they don't have the value.

For future trades, I really don't like it unless we just played our hand and Hodges becomes available. So we got Valbuena to put him up for sale factoring in Barfield/Valbuena and Rivero will pair up with Cabrera and Peralta at SS/3rd for years to come. As for giving us more trading chips, I just don't see it because Gut > Valbuena and Stevens, Meloan and Sipp > Smith due to possible closer value. And, I already thought one of Meloan, Stevens or Sipp would go, especially now we have Woods for 2-3 years.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby petes999 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:13 pm

TheWord wrote:
petes999 wrote:
TheWord wrote:I look at it this way SP #3 > SP prospect > 2nd base (by far) and SP #3 > Catcher > 3rd base > 2nd base (in general value of trades). I would rather put Barfield and Marte out there than leaving our pitching staff vulnerable due to the value of a good staff. Thus, I rather have Shoppach and Francisco/Gut available for that pitcher.

I just don't now if we have the value to go after a #3 pitcher unless we give up a Laporta or Santana. Thus, that was my point of keeping Gut for a possible pitching trade.


So essentially you're saying we can't replace Gutierrez in a trade unless it's with Santana or LaPorta?

Thats ridiculous.


I never said that ... I think we can replace him, yet it would be for a Rondon, Weglarz, Mills, .... I don't think that we want to do it with Crowe and Brantley as we are a bit thin on major league level ready OF unless we want to keep Dellucci. That is unless Hafner is back and then Laporta doesn't need to do OF/DH duties.

My main point with the analysis you quoted is I rather used my chips first on SP than a possible 2nd base in a year or reliever.

And, from most lists we have made ... Brantley and Crowe are in the 10-15 range. Valbuena was #11. Gut = #11 and Smith. So as said above in another post, Gut = maybe 4-8 (probably closer to 6/7).
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby MadThinker88 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:15 pm

Fine, Josh is of limited value. It all depends on the audience.

Raffy has more value then Smith but Cleveland is willing to deal him as part of contract balancing. 3.35M is too much for a guy that is coming into the game regularly in the 6th/7th (Perez and Jensen holding down the 8th).
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby petes999 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:26 pm

MadThinker88 wrote:Fine, Josh is of limited value. It all depends on the audience.

Raffy has more value then Smith but Cleveland is willing to deal him as part of contract balancing. 3.35M is too much for a guy that is coming into the game regularly in the 6th/7th (Perez and Jensen holding down the 8th).


Agreed ... sorry if I came across as harsh ... just wanted some spirited debate in a day without much football ... (was looking for a distraction to doing my writing project).

Yet, Dennis has taken so much heat and sometimes justified. I think the point of a 1 for 2 trade when we still have holes has a lot of merit. And,we still have the same holes ... and more chips to trade yet less valuable chips in my book, yet it is debatable.

Let's wait and see what Shapiro has up his sleeve ... yet we can always speculate on how to bring the next trade together in the meantime...
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby artgold » Sun Dec 14, 2008 6:25 pm

dnosco wrote:
artgold wrote:Joe Smith gave up an earned run in 19 of his 82 appearances last season (23% of his games).

Last season, Betancourt gave up an earned run in 23 of his 69 appearances last season (33% of his games). Now in his great season (2007) he gave up a run in 13 of 68 appearances (19% of his games).

Considering this performance by Smith includes his "lefty troubles", it seems to me that we have the potential for someone to put up "Benancourt 2007" numbers with just a slight improvement in performance against lefties.


Art,

I must not be getting this. Betancourt averaged more than an inning per outing in his worst year. Smith averaged about 3/4 of an inning per outing and faced and outrageous ratio of 50 LH to 182 RH (Betancourt was 119 to 156). When you are in the game for 1 or 2 batters, all of which you usually have a great matchup against, shouldn't you have a much less chance to give up a run?



I look at results per game when evaluating relief pitchers. If Smith was used in a way that minimized his batters faced per outing that was the Mets choice, unless he was yanked early due to giving up hits and/or runs. In Smiths case, this didn't happen, and looking at his "yield" vs lefties I don't have a grave concern that he can't get them out, or at least hold them to a .280 BA/.350 OBP. Even with his terrible 2008 OBP of .443 against lefties, he still had a decent overall year.

Like I stated earlier, at this time he appears to be Bradford, and that isn't fatal. Look at Bradford's OBP against for lefties in the 2003-2005 period, it looks like it would fit in with Smith last season. Then take a look at Bradford in the 2006-2008 timeframe, and you can see significant improvements in his performance against lefties.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby MadThinker88 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 6:26 pm

You were not harsh. Sorry if my reply was terse. :s_empathy

As for your writing project..... don't put it off too much. :s_drinks
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby petes999 » Sun Dec 14, 2008 7:18 pm

--- Moved to What Else We Should Do ------

post2827.html#p2827
Last edited by petes999 on Sun Dec 14, 2008 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby JP_Frost » Sun Dec 14, 2008 7:28 pm

I don't know why there's a discussion going on about Smith's ability to get lefties out. He was used as a righty specialist by the Mets and he was acquired by the Tribe as a righty specialist. If Shapiro and Wedge have plans to use him against lefties more often, then we'll see how he handles that job, but right now he's in our pen as a guy that is murder on righthanders.

Getting Joe Smith is a depth move, which Shapiro can afford to make for 2 reasons. 1: The signing of Wood. This bumps everyone down a notch and enables Perez and Lewis so focus solely on setup situations, and Betancourt to regain his past success. 2: Joe Smith has proven to be very good at what he does and it doesn't hurt our bullpen at all ... it actually makes it stronger, because it gives you another reliable arm to use. I'm not a big fan of all these pre-defined bullpen roles, but I do feel that Wood anchors the pen late in games, which makes the rest of the guys feel more comfortable (though I wouldn't have complained if Lewis was our closer). Also, if players really need to have such a niche in the bullpen and have to know exactly when they come into the game, then I guess it's a good thing that everyone has their specific role. The point is, we don't need Smith to become a reliever who will pitch 1+ inning per appearance or face 3 lefties in a row. If he can continue to make life hell for righthanded hitters then we've got a very valuable asset to go along with the other guys in the bullpen.

another thing that gets on my nerves a little is the way some people view Valbuena. Shapiro dealt from an area of depth, the outfield, to get a guy that instantly rises to the top of the depth chart of an area where we lacked depth ... middle infield. Valbuena is young, very close to the majors, has made enormous improvements over the last 12 months both offensively and defensively, and has the room to up his ceiling even more so to speak. I don't see how that is a bad thing. To have a guy that is under control for quite a few years and has the potential to be a .750-.800 OPS 2nd baseman with above average defense is huge. There were 10 second basemen last season in the majors that had a .750+ OPS and only a handful of them also played good defense. Obviously, we don't know yet if Valbuena can be added to that list, but that's why you get him, because there's a chance, a legitimate chance, he'll reach that level. And we're not talking about some 17-year old kid who still has to sniff A ball. No, he already had his cup of coffee in the majors and didn't embarrass himself at all.

And last but not least, to get these 2 guys we only gave up a 4th outfielder/platoon guy with incredible defense, but very questionable offensive skills. That's easily replaceable with the glut of outfielders we have. It's not like we traded Grady Sizemore or Victor Martinez to get this package. And please Nosco, don't repeat that story about how Gutierrez could become an above-average player for the M's because it doesn't even matter. He could become an all star for all I care, but he never would've reached that ceiling with the Indians.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby JP_Frost » Sun Dec 14, 2008 7:48 pm

petes999 wrote:As we are talking trade value here ...

1) what is the value of Shoppach?

2) What is the value of a #3 starter

3) What is the value of top notch prospect starter ready for April 1 (Miller,Kennedy type)


#3 starter - should we use Vasquez as an example?

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Per Baseball America website ... Karl (Chicago): If you were ranking the White Sox farm system today, would any of the new arrivals crack the top 10? If so, where would they fit?

Jim Callis: I think we're going to put Flowers at No. 4 behind Beckham, Viciedo and Poreda. Lillibridge may jump in ahead of Getz. Gilmore and Rodriguez will be in the 11-30 range.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And Getz was 6 without the influx of new talent.

So Mills/Weglarz (supposedly Santana > Flores in BA rankings so we don't need to go that high)
then maybe a package of Huff/Hodges/Rondon (7-8 range) and Stevens/Meloan (high teens)

Doable ....

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shoppach - I don't think there is a lot of comparison out there. I think Laird is very low end and Molasco was the #10 prospect for Detroit (maybe a bit depleted system). Yet, Laird only plus was a defensive specialist. That is like saying Toregas could get value in a trade. There are alot of defensive catchers yet few that have the stick as well. That is where Shoppach value goes up. Maybe we can't get a #1 or #3 prospect, yet maybe a #5 prospect.

I look at Dunn and say a .240 hitter with 40 HRs is looking for the money he is as an OF, there is good value in Shoppach who can hit .260 and 25-30 HRs in a full season at catcher.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now the value of a #1-3 prospect starter .... There is usually no comparisons here as they are usually only traded for top players in a multilevel deal ... like a CC or others.

Yet, Boston has been approached by other teams for Bucchulz, Bowden or Masterson for their catcher (one of Texas ones and another team).

And, hasn't Homer Bailey been associated with trades for mediocre OFs -- Dye (.290 30-35 HR average) but getting a bit old ??? And Bailey was #2 behind Bruce as of last year in the Reds system.

So there is value yet isn't like it never happens without giving up a CC or Lee

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thus, do we want to do a Shoppach and change for a Bailey, Hughes, Kennedy, Masterson, .... depending on who wants to sell?

Do we want to do a Mills/Weglarz - Huff/Hodges/Rondon (7-8 range) and Stevens/Meloan (high teens) for a #3.....

Or, would Huff, Stevens and Brantley type gets us a pitching prospect at #2 in the systems like Masterson (actually #4 due to Boston's depth)

Sorry for highjacking this thread ... yet we started down this pay thought it would be an interesting discussion


The problem is that most teams are very reluctant to deal their MOR starters. Obviously they won't turn down a great package of players, but that would put us at a disadvantage.

It's very hard to compare prospects with each other, because you can't just go on rankings. The White Sox received what they felt was a good package of prospects for them. You can't just copy the rankings of said prospects and apply it to our system. Flowers, Lillibridge, Gilmore and Rodriguez as a group is inferior to say Mills, Rondon and Stevens. So in answer to your question, no I wouldn't trade a package of those guys for a #3. If that's the going rate, then we're overpaying.

There's no question that Shoppach has very good value, but the question is if we can get a good enough return for that value. Boston will not trade Buccholz for Shoppach and a throw-in (unless that player is one of our top prospects). Same probably goes for Masterson and Hughes of the Yankees. Guys like Bailey and Kennedy may go for that price, but they hardly fill our need. The fact of the matter is that obtaining a MOR starter who'd still be under our control for a couple of years and maybe has some upside left in him, can't be done at the cost that we're comfortable with. The most valuable commodity in baseball today are young, cost-controlled players with upside. Teams without a large payroll will hang on to them, and teams without a large payroll who look for those players probably can't get them, unless they develop them from within the farm system.

I think we need to look a little further than those guys and then we enter a terrain where it might be best to stick with Shoppach and hopefully get an offer that is more suitable to our needs. That's not to say it'll be impossible to get ourselves a good #3 starter, but it's really hard and you'd have to have a perfect match ... or hope you can fleece the other team.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Duane Kuiper » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:39 pm

artgold wrote:Joe Smith gave up an earned run in 19 of his 82 appearances last season (23% of his games).

Last season, Betancourt gave up an earned run in 23 of his 69 appearances last season (33% of his games). Now in his great season (2007) he gave up a run in 13 of 68 appearances (19% of his games).

Considering this performance by Smith includes his "lefty troubles", it seems to me that we have the potential for someone to put up "Benancourt 2007" numbers with just a slight improvement in performance against lefties.
I don't think you can use ER for LOOGYs or ROOGYs because most of the time the ER is caused by the follwing RP allowing the runners that the LOOGY or ROOGY put on base.

A more accurate picture of their performance is probably best by looking at BA/OBP/SLG given up.

Smith did worse vs LHB in 08 than he did in 07.

07 .298 .411 .447 .858 7 W 13 K
08 .320 .443 .460 .903 11 W 7 K

I'm worried that the Sea GM, who was universally praised for how well he did with the Milw minor league system, wanted Gutz so bad. What did he see that most here don't?
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:26 pm

JP_Frost wrote:I don't know why there's a discussion going on about Smith's ability to get lefties out. He was used as a righty specialist by the Mets and he was acquired by the Tribe as a righty specialist. If Shapiro and Wedge have plans to use him against lefties more often, then we'll see how he handles that job, but right now he's in our pen as a guy that is murder on righthanders.

Getting Joe Smith is a depth move, which Shapiro can afford to make for 2 reasons. 1: The signing of Wood. This bumps everyone down a notch and enables Perez and Lewis so focus solely on setup situations, and Betancourt to regain his past success. 2: Joe Smith has proven to be very good at what he does and it doesn't hurt our bullpen at all ... it actually makes it stronger, because it gives you another reliable arm to use. I'm not a big fan of all these pre-defined bullpen roles, but I do feel that Wood anchors the pen late in games, which makes the rest of the guys feel more comfortable (though I wouldn't have complained if Lewis was our closer). Also, if players really need to have such a niche in the bullpen and have to know exactly when they come into the game, then I guess it's a good thing that everyone has their specific role. The point is, we don't need Smith to become a reliever who will pitch 1+ inning per appearance or face 3 lefties in a row. If he can continue to make life hell for righthanded hitters then we've got a very valuable asset to go along with the other guys in the bullpen.

another thing that gets on my nerves a little is the way some people view Valbuena. Shapiro dealt from an area of depth, the outfield, to get a guy that instantly rises to the top of the depth chart of an area where we lacked depth ... middle infield. Valbuena is young, very close to the majors, has made enormous improvements over the last 12 months both offensively and defensively, and has the room to up his ceiling even more so to speak. I don't see how that is a bad thing. To have a guy that is under control for quite a few years and has the potential to be a .750-.800 OPS 2nd baseman with above average defense is huge. There were 10 second basemen last season in the majors that had a .750+ OPS and only a handful of them also played good defense. Obviously, we don't know yet if Valbuena can be added to that list, but that's why you get him, because there's a chance, a legitimate chance, he'll reach that level. And we're not talking about some 17-year old kid who still has to sniff A ball. No, he already had his cup of coffee in the majors and didn't embarrass himself at all.

And last but not least, to get these 2 guys we only gave up a 4th outfielder/platoon guy with incredible defense, but very questionable offensive skills. That's easily replaceable with the glut of outfielders we have. It's not like we traded Grady Sizemore or Victor Martinez to get this package. And please Nosco, don't repeat that story about how Gutierrez could become an above-average player for the M's because it doesn't even matter. He could become an all star for all I care, but he never would've reached that ceiling with the Indians.


One thing that seems to be missed here is that we brought in Smith as a righty reliever and a one-trick pony at that. Doesn't this bump some guys down to the minors like Meloan, Stevens, probably Miller? Or does it mean that we would trade one of our relief prospects as a result of this or trade one of our own more versatile relievers and substitute a ROOGY for him? Plus, we haven't filled any holes with this trade. Gutierrez needed to be used to fill a hole and he wasn't.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby artgold » Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:40 pm

Duane Kuiper wrote:
artgold wrote:Joe Smith gave up an earned run in 19 of his 82 appearances last season (23% of his games).

Last season, Betancourt gave up an earned run in 23 of his 69 appearances last season (33% of his games). Now in his great season (2007) he gave up a run in 13 of 68 appearances (19% of his games).

Considering this performance by Smith includes his "lefty troubles", it seems to me that we have the potential for someone to put up "Benancourt 2007" numbers with just a slight improvement in performance against lefties.
I don't think you can use ER for LOOGYs or ROOGYs because most of the time the ER is caused by the follwing RP allowing the runners that the LOOGY or ROOGY put on base.

A more accurate picture of their performance is probably best by looking at BA/OBP/SLG given up.

Smith did worse vs LHB in 08 than he did in 07.

07 .298 .411 .447 .858 7 W 13 K
08 .320 .443 .460 .903 11 W 7 K

I'm worried that the Sea GM, who was universally praised for how well he did with the Milw minor league system, wanted Gutz so bad. What did he see that most here don't?


When you look at Smith's performance splits, one of the first things that jumps out at you is the severe difference in his GB/FB ratio against righties and lefties. He has a far higher ration, Laffey level, of grounders against righties. Obviously, if he can work on getting lefties to beat the ball into the ground, this should fix a bit of his problem.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:03 am

dnosco wrote:Plus, we haven't filled any holes with this trade. Gutierrez needed to be used to fill a hole and he wasn't.


Well, of course not. We traded Franklin Gutierrez.

He wasn't going to single-handedly fill our starting pitching or infield need. But, what he DID do was help shore up the bullpen (our biggest weakness last year) and add some depth at a position of need at 2B and potentially fill that need in the infield.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 9:52 am

Duane Kuiper wrote:I'm worried that the Sea GM, who was universally praised for how well he did with the Milw minor league system, wanted Gutz so bad. What did he see that most here don't?


I still think Gut will turn into a VERY good OFer here in a few years. He'll always struggle a bit against righties and have some issues with the breaking ball, but will prove to be a ML starting OFer. Very sad to see him go.....but we did get 2 nice pieces for him. Would have rather have traded Francisco and had Gut starting in the OF next year......but that ship has sailed.....
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Mon Dec 15, 2008 10:23 am

Consigliere wrote:
dnosco wrote:Plus, we haven't filled any holes with this trade. Gutierrez needed to be used to fill a hole and he wasn't.


Well, of course not. We traded Franklin Gutierrez.

He wasn't going to single-handedly fill our starting pitching or infield need. But, what he DID do was help shore up the bullpen (our biggest weakness last year) and add some depth at a position of need at 2B and potentially fill that need in the infield.


This is my point, exactly. Did we really need Smith? How many teams in the majors employed ROOGYs last year? THREE (actually four, because Bradford played for two teams and, actually, he didn't really fit the definition of a ROOGY).

No one EVER said Gutz was going to single-handedly fill those needs. What he could have done was be a piece to a larger trade to fill a need at SP or at 2B

Someone asked for a trade in which Gutierrez was used. How about this:

To Baltimore: Adam Miller, Aaron Laffey, Franklin Gutierrez, Wes Hodges, Beau Mills, Josh Barfield.
To Cleveland: Brian Roberts, Jeremy Guthrie

Baltimore has a lot of needs and SP, CF, 1B and 3B are among them. We essentially go a long way toward emptying our farm system of guys who are questionable at the ML level but all of whom have significant upside and get a good second baseman and a solid #3 back. Considering we were going to trade the equivalent of three or four of these guys for Jason Bay last year, this deal makes sense to me.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 10:38 am

Why would the Orioles give up Guthrie though? And they don't really 'need' a CFer. They have Adam Jones. Deal makes no sense to me.....and wouldn't have for the Orioles either......

If they really wanted a CF and were willing trade arguably their two best players, they'd probably prefer Trevor Crowe anyways as he will be cheaper for longer.....


Also, their big need is SS, not 3B (though could use Hodges).
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:12 am

dnosco wrote:
Consigliere wrote:
dnosco wrote:Plus, we haven't filled any holes with this trade. Gutierrez needed to be used to fill a hole and he wasn't.


Well, of course not. We traded Franklin Gutierrez.

He wasn't going to single-handedly fill our starting pitching or infield need. But, what he DID do was help shore up the bullpen (our biggest weakness last year) and add some depth at a position of need at 2B and potentially fill that need in the infield.


This is my point, exactly. Did we really need Smith? How many teams in the majors employed ROOGYs last year? THREE (actually four, because Bradford played for two teams and, actually, he didn't really fit the definition of a ROOGY).

No one EVER said Gutz was going to single-handedly fill those needs. What he could have done was be a piece to a larger trade to fill a need at SP or at 2B

Someone asked for a trade in which Gutierrez was used. How about this:

To Baltimore: Adam Miller, Aaron Laffey, Franklin Gutierrez, Wes Hodges, Beau Mills, Josh Barfield.
To Cleveland: Brian Roberts, Jeremy Guthrie

Baltimore has a lot of needs and SP, CF, 1B and 3B are among them. We essentially go a long way toward emptying our farm system of guys who are questionable at the ML level but all of whom have significant upside and get a good second baseman and a solid #3 back. Considering we were going to trade the equivalent of three or four of these guys for Jason Bay last year, this deal makes sense to me.


No offense Denny, but if this is the best you can come up with for a fantasy trade, then I am really glad we have Shapiro running the team. I know this must make sense to you on some level but I am a whole lot happier with the use of Gutierrez in his trade than this one. What possible use would Baltimore have for half the players on your list including Gutz? Just doesn't add up? Throw something else against the wall. :s_scratchhead
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:33 am

Denny, of course we could use a guy like Smith. Did you "watch" our team last year and the hell of a bullpen it had?

Having Smith in there instead of an Eddie Mujica, Tom Mastny, or even one of the young kids at the outset of the season is a plus. It helps....maybe marginally, but it helps and you know what to expect and he has some value.

Gutierrez could have been used in a bigger trade possibly, but the Indians felt the ability to get two decent pieces for Gutierrez now was well worth it. The guy is a 4th outfielder and they traded him for some value. I can't fault them for that whether the deal pans out or not.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:01 pm

"No offense Denny, but if this is the best you can come up with for a fantasy trade, then I am really glad we have Shapiro running the team. I know this must make sense to you on some level but I am a whole lot happier with the use of Gutierrez in his trade than this one. What possible use would Baltimore have for half the players on your list including Gutz? Just doesn't add up? Throw something else against the wall"

Hey, trades are not easy to come up with. I did, as you suggested, throw something against the wall. It seems like you are saying 'prove we could have used him better'. Frankly (a) any trade I suggest you could poke holes in and (b) it's Shapiro's job. It's not the best I can come up with, by any means, but it is something. The point is that you believe this is an appropriate trade and I think we could have used Gutierrez in a better trade.

It's a sucker bet to say, as someone else did and you alluded to, propose a trade that is better. Yeah, it's like my mother used to say when I was a kid "Eat your vegetables, think of all the starving people in China", to which the response could be "Name two".

Hey, I totally missed Adam Jones in Baltimore as I didn't look at my depth chart.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/d ... p?c_id=bal

Other than that, what about my trade makes no sense? Finding a replacement for Melvin Mora sometime this year or next (Hodges)? Looking for a real first base prospect (Mills) in an organization not heavy in anything but pitching? Bringing in ML ready pitchers (Laffey, Miller) with one having upside and the other being serviceable right now?

Actually, besides that Baltimore has Adam Jones, this would have been a PERFECT trade for Baltimore. They immediately upgrade their farm system AND their major league roster and prepare themselves for the future in a division where you probably have to have all your ducks in a row to even have a one year shot at cracking the big two plus Tampa.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:13 pm

dnosco wrote:Other than that, what about my trade makes no sense? Finding a replacement for Melvin Mora sometime this year or next (Hodges)? Looking for a real first base prospect (Mills) in an organization not heavy in anything but pitching? Bringing in ML ready pitchers (Laffey, Miller) with one having upside and the other being serviceable right now?

Actually, besides that Baltimore has Adam Jones, this would have been a PERFECT trade for Baltimore. They immediately upgrade their farm system AND their major league roster and prepare themselves for the future in a division where you probably have to have all your ducks in a row to even have a one year shot at cracking the big two plus Tampa.


They have Rowell in the minors who they like. He's a year behind Hodges but could be rushed if they wanted for 3B. They don't upgrade their ML roster at all. They lose their top pitcher and best offensive player while getting a guy in Gut who wouldn't start for them, Hodges who wouldn't start, Mills who wouldn't start, Laffey who is a good depth guy but no Guthrie, Miller who would improve their pen, and Barfield who may start at 2B (but no gurantee).

Their ML roster would be a lot worse in fact. Their farm system would get a major upgrade.....but not really in the spots that they need (other than Mills at 1B/DH).
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:30 pm

Consigliere wrote:Denny, of course we could use a guy like Smith. Did you "watch" our team last year and the hell of a bullpen it had?

Having Smith in there instead of an Eddie Mujica, Tom Mastny, or even one of the young kids at the outset of the season is a plus. It helps....maybe marginally, but it helps and you know what to expect and he has some value.

Gutierrez could have been used in a bigger trade possibly, but the Indians felt the ability to get two decent pieces for Gutierrez now was well worth it. The guy is a 4th outfielder and they traded him for some value. I can't fault them for that whether the deal pans out or not.


The point here is that our bullpen needs to give us INNINGS not BATTERS. Smith gives you 1-2 batters and then he may be done if a lefty comes up. Sometimes that won't even get him through one inning (80+ appearances, 63 innings in 2008). My opinion is that having Smith there in the beginning of the season actually may HURT this team. Yeah, he gets righties out and should continue to do that and help keep us in games early in the season when he is in the game. But starting pitchers go less innings early in the season which means that we need more arms who can go an inning or more at the beginning of the season so we don't burn out the remainder of the bullpen guys before June. Smith actually occupies a bullpen spot that could go to someone who, not as effective against righties, may actually be effective to some level against both righties and lefties AND is suited for more than OOGY work.

Here is our bullpen:

Wood
Lewis
Perez
Betancourt
Kobayashi
Smith

Assuming less complete games than games where the starters go 5 innings or less, keeping a guy like Smith means that the workload on the rest of the bullpen will be that much greater. Looking at this list, unless we go with 13 pitchers (and, therefore, only 2 bench players and one backup catcher) we have only one more spot in the pen and only one lefty. Teams normally prefer two lefties. On our current roster this might be a long guy (Jackson) or a LOOGY (Rundles).

This leaves Miller, Stevens and Meloan on the outside looking in. Hey, having one guy in the minors as depth is mandatory. Having two is a luxury. Having 3 is Eric Wedge saying he wants a veteran and not a rookie.

So, without considering a specific trade, was our need for a #3/4 starter AND for a bullpen guy who can give us 1 or 1+ inning stints is greater than our need for the 6th or 7th guy in our bullpen who is a situational guy? I think it was and so I think that available resources should be thrown at bringing in a quality guy in that role before bringing in a ROOGY.

You can argue that we got good value for Gutierrez, which I admit we have gotten if Gutierrez holds his projection as a 4th outfielder. The only question is it it the RIGHT value or even needed value. That is what some of us are saying.

One final thing. You said "I can't fault them for that whether the deal pans out or not.". I read that and I had to laugh. So, if they make a deal and it falls on their face they are not accountable? I am thinking (I mean hoping) you didn't really mean that. My pendulum certainly swings way in the other direction of this opinion but do you really mean to tell us that trading a pretty tradeable asset for a need that, IMO, we didn't really have (ROOGY) is OK? I hope not.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:45 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
dnosco wrote:Other than that, what about my trade makes no sense? Finding a replacement for Melvin Mora sometime this year or next (Hodges)? Looking for a real first base prospect (Mills) in an organization not heavy in anything but pitching? Bringing in ML ready pitchers (Laffey, Miller) with one having upside and the other being serviceable right now?

Actually, besides that Baltimore has Adam Jones, this would have been a PERFECT trade for Baltimore. They immediately upgrade their farm system AND their major league roster and prepare themselves for the future in a division where you probably have to have all your ducks in a row to even have a one year shot at cracking the big two plus Tampa.


They have Rowell in the minors who they like. He's a year behind Hodges but could be rushed if they wanted for 3B. They don't upgrade their ML roster at all. They lose their top pitcher and best offensive player while getting a guy in Gut who wouldn't start for them, Hodges who wouldn't start, Mills who wouldn't start, Laffey who is a good depth guy but no Guthrie, Miller who would improve their pen, and Barfield who may start at 2B (but no gurantee).

Their ML roster would be a lot worse in fact. Their farm system would get a major upgrade.....but not really in the spots that they need (other than Mills at 1B/DH).


I don't want to debate this trade ad nauseum. It was an ill-thought out knee jerk respons to the request for an alternate trade. I think I have already, with Tony, addressed the sucker bet nature of that type of request. But while we are talking about it Rowell hit all of .248 at high A last year and only in 111 games. I am thinking he is more than a year behind Hodges, maybe two. Baltimore's starting pitching is a mess. I think Laffey provides more than just depth. I think he instantly becomes part of their rotation. Plus we are renting Roberts for one year, plus, even with Roberts the Orioles are the 4th or 5th best team IN THEIR DIVISION.

So, again, let's not put too much stock in my proposed trade. But that is not the point. The point is that there things out there we could have done and the proposed Bay trade last year shows that our pieces, even if not valuable independently, have some value when put together if they are packaged to a team that is rebuilding.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:52 pm

dnosco wrote:One final thing. You said "I can't fault them for that whether the deal pans out or not.". I read that and I had to laugh. So, if they make a deal and it falls on their face they are not accountable? I am thinking (I mean hoping) you didn't really mean that. My pendulum certainly swings way in the other direction of this opinion but do you really mean to tell us that trading a pretty tradeable asset for a need that, IMO, we didn't really have (ROOGY) is OK? I hope not.


I'm okay with the deal pass or fail. They gambled, which is what I wanted them to do. Sure, if the guys we obtain suck and Gutierrez becomes solid I won't be happy about it....but I won't complain. Gutierrez was traded for exactly what he was worth at this time, in fact more than he was worth, and on top of that had little value to the team and only as a 4th outfielder and was gone sometime this year anyway....which is why I can't get all too upset with whatever happens.

He's a marginal player. He should settle in at Seattle as their CFer and be a STARTER, but he'll be a bottom of the order guy and in there simply because of his defense. Some teams can put up with that in CF, heck I may even have been okay with that here in Cleveland if not for Sizemore being here, but the Indians cannot have that kind of weak bat in the lineup in LF and RF. So, he was a see ya. And thankfully so. One of the more over-rated prospects in the system the last ten years if you ask me.

And besides, Gutierrez for Valbuena and his potential would have been fine. Smith is just a bonus.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:59 pm

dnosco wrote:I don't want to debate this trade ad nauseum. It was an ill-thought out knee jerk respons to the request for an alternate trade. I think I have already, with Tony, addressed the sucker bet nature of that type of request. But while we are talking about it Rowell hit all of .248 at high A last year and only in 111 games. I am thinking he is more than a year behind Hodges, maybe two. Baltimore's starting pitching is a mess. I think Laffey provides more than just depth. I think he instantly becomes part of their rotation. Plus we are renting Roberts for one year, plus, even with Roberts the Orioles are the 4th or 5th best team IN THEIR DIVISION.

So, again, let's not put too much stock in my proposed trade. But that is not the point. The point is that there things out there we could have done and the proposed Bay trade last year shows that our pieces, even if not valuable independently, have some value when put together if they are packaged to a team that is rebuilding.


I know it was just a proposal and you weren't saying 'do this trade'.....but we'd never get what you were asking for from any team for the the fringe players you're suggesting given up/far away prospects.

Laffey provides depth and that's it. Yeah he makes their rotation....but they LOSE Guthrie, thus making their rotation even worse than it was. Makes ZERO sense for them. They wouldn't throw Miller in the starting rotation either (unless they're totally nuts). Baltimore won't trade their their best starter unless they get more than just Laffey to improve it. And they can get a lot more for Roberts IMO.

Rowell did have a bad year....but probably will start at AA still and be a year behind Hodges. Should see some time in 2010 (though 2011 may be a better estimate). Hodges is slated for 2010 most likely so 1 year behind is about right (though I agree, it may be 2 years).


Did we get Bay last year though? I don't think the Bay trade shows anything except that our fringe players when packaged still can't land a top talent like a Bay.

For Gut, we got a solid righty setup man and a 2B/SS who will likely see some time startign at 2B for us this year. Not too shabby.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 1:03 pm

Consigliere wrote:I'm okay with the deal pass or fail. They gambled, which is what I wanted them to do. Sure, if the guys we obtain suck and Gutierrez becomes solid I won't be happy about it....but I won't complain. Gutierrez was traded for exactly what he was worth at this time, in fact more than he was worth, and on top of that had little value to the team and only as a 4th outfielder and was gone sometime this year anyway....which is why I can't get all too upset with whatever happens.

He's a marginal player. He should settle in at Seattle as their CFer and be a STARTER, but he'll be a bottom of the order guy and in there simply because of his defense. Some teams can put up with that in CF, heck I may even have been okay with that here in Cleveland if not for Sizemore being here, but the Indians cannot have that kind of weak bat in the lineup in LF and RF. So, he was a see ya. And thankfully so. One of the more over-rated prospects in the system the last ten years if you ask me.

And besides, Gutierrez for Valbuena and his potential would have been fine. Smith is just a bonus.


I disagree strongly with this. So are you saying that if we put Grady in LF and Gut in CF (as it really should be as Gut is the better CFer) having Gut in the lineup would be ok since his weaker bat is in CF and not a cOF spot?

If you're getting 25-30+ HRs from CF then you can put up with a weaker bat at the corner (especially when that weaker bat has 20 HR potential).

Now if you're just saying this because Choo isn't a big HR threat at the other cOF spot then I'd agree with you......but doesn't sound like that's what you're trying to say....
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby petes999 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:03 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Did we get Bay last year though? I don't think the Bay trade shows anything except that our fringe players when packaged still can't land a top talent like a Bay.

For Gut, we got a solid righty setup man and a 2B/SS who will likely see some time startign at 2B for us this year. Not too shabby.


If I am not mistaken, wasn't Shapiro the one that balked at the trade (my memory is fading) due to giving up too much in Lee, Shoppach and Gut. Thus, we can use pieces to trade ... just some pieces are just too valuable as Lee showed. Do you think Shapiro would have done it if it was Shoppach, Gut and (a 2nd tier pitcher maybe Sowers/Lewis/Huff)? Sounds more reasonable. I think Shapiro knew what he had in Lee and was waiting to see if it developed.

And, if you are right, that Valbuena will be starting this year (maybe by mid-season) than that I think is a point for the trade because it would solve 2nd base, not the best way but give Barfield one last attempt at 2nd and then Valbuena ready in July if he bombs. I think Dennis and I have balked because most people suggest having him waiting until 2010 which still leaves a hole at 2nd for a year.

With all this banter back and forth, the main point that I get is that we do not know what it would take to get a #3 SP, or even an upgrade at #4/5 (more sure bet than Sowers/Huff/Lewis) to offset the issue (big question mark) at #3 with Reyes.

We say Gut barely got us anything. However, Gut was the player that got the trade between Mets and Seattle to actually happen. Which brings up my point that Shoppach and Gut had value not per say for being all-star players, yet fitting a specific role (HR hitting catcher with defensive skills and a defensive all-star CF with an o.k. bat and decent pop). We don't know that Shoppach and Gut would have gotten us anything close to #3 SP or stellar 2nd base, yet the odds are it is better that it could form the basis of a package with prospects than Shoppach and relief pitcher. You can always find a partner (3rd team) in relief pitcher or corner outfielder (lots of supply changing hands). Yet, let's list the talent left to be traded in the league at catcher and CF? (Laird is gone .... CF you have Cabrera, and the guy in Milwaukee and possibly Bradley on the FA market - yawn ....). Who could be traded at the corner or relief (you still have Dunn and a punch of possible closers that can do 7th/8th inning relief)?

My point is you settle the pitching issue first .... then settle the 2nd base issue because I would have been fine with Marte/Carroll then Hodges in July). Now I don't mind the trade because I think we solved 2nd base to at least give us a back-up plan in July (another option to Hodges). And, more importantly as we saw, it kept Pultz and Woods out of Detroit. Win-win.

Yet, I will refute the trade in that Valbuena and Smith is all we could get. My logic is like Tony's that you make more of a riskier trade (win big or lose big). We don't need more Dellucci's or average prospects. We need a large upgrade at SP. Let's look at that first even if it took all our chips than trading for a marginal upgrade 2nd base or relief pitcher.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:29 pm

Well we'll never truly know what went down, but most reports said the Pirates backed out because they were looking at prospects instead of ML players. The Pirates did turn down Lee, Shoppach, and Gut.


Valbuena will need to come in and have strong spring, but the Mariners were considering starting him this year (though that means nothing to us). He has been very solid against righties in his minor league career. A platoon to start the year with Carroll at 2B could work out well. Improves the IF defense if nothing else.


Consider that all we got for Milton Bradley (who was much more proven) a few years ago was Gut who was a young prospect a year away from the MLs and a reliever in Andrew Brown. You will never get much more for a guy that may not even be considered a starter on most teams than what we got for Gut.

Not to mention this makes Hodges, Barfield, or even Valbuena tradeable since we're finally getting some depth on the infield.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:33 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Consigliere wrote:I'm okay with the deal pass or fail. They gambled, which is what I wanted them to do. Sure, if the guys we obtain suck and Gutierrez becomes solid I won't be happy about it....but I won't complain. Gutierrez was traded for exactly what he was worth at this time, in fact more than he was worth, and on top of that had little value to the team and only as a 4th outfielder and was gone sometime this year anyway....which is why I can't get all too upset with whatever happens.

He's a marginal player. He should settle in at Seattle as their CFer and be a STARTER, but he'll be a bottom of the order guy and in there simply because of his defense. Some teams can put up with that in CF, heck I may even have been okay with that here in Cleveland if not for Sizemore being here, but the Indians cannot have that kind of weak bat in the lineup in LF and RF. So, he was a see ya. And thankfully so. One of the more over-rated prospects in the system the last ten years if you ask me.

And besides, Gutierrez for Valbuena and his potential would have been fine. Smith is just a bonus.


I disagree strongly with this. So are you saying that if we put Grady in LF and Gut in CF (as it really should be as Gut is the better CFer) having Gut in the lineup would be ok since his weaker bat is in CF and not a cOF spot?

If you're getting 25-30+ HRs from CF then you can put up with a weaker bat at the corner (especially when that weaker bat has 20 HR potential).

Now if you're just saying this because Choo isn't a big HR threat at the other cOF spot then I'd agree with you......but doesn't sound like that's what you're trying to say....


No, I was implying if Sizemore was not on the team, Gutierrez would maybe be someone I could live with in CF.

And Sizemore is a CFer. He'll be there for a very long time. He would never be moved from CF anytime soon, so this is why Gutz had such little value to us as strictly a LF/RF. We can do better there.

We'll see what happens, and I will bow out of this discussion for now. Not too worried about it though as I don't see Gutz amounting to much more than a defensive specialist. YMMV.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:39 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Well we'll never truly know what went down, but most reports said the Pirates backed out because they were looking at prospects instead of ML players. The Pirates did turn down Lee, Shoppach, and Gut.


Valbuena will need to come in and have strong spring, but the Mariners were considering starting him this year (though that means nothing to us). He has been very solid against righties in his minor league career. A platoon to start the year with Carroll at 2B could work out well. Improves the IF defense if nothing else.


Consider that all we got for Milton Bradley (who was much more proven) a few years ago was Gut who was a young prospect a year away from the MLs and a reliever in Andrew Brown. You will never get much more for a guy that may not even be considered a starter on most teams than what we got for Gut.

Not to mention this makes Hodges, Barfield, or even Valbuena tradeable since we're finally getting some depth on the infield.


As I recall WE balked when the Pirates asked that we substitute Laffey for Lee as they felt Laffey had good upside that would fit better into their rebuilding timeline than would Lee's inflated contract and closeness to free agency. I was for that trade at the time (although I clearly undervalued Shoppach but correctly valued (or disvalued) Laffey and Gutz).

Hermie, I question whether a single person actually thinks we got less than equal value in the current Gutz trade, considering current value. Some just don't think we got the right value.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 15, 2008 3:39 pm

Some reports said we balked at that, but others said they wanted more and then decided they only wanted prospects. Who knows for certain what the each team was offering and how close it actually got. Point is nothing happened so it's hard to gauge the value of a player based on a deal that never materialized.


I'm one of the biggest Gut fans out there, but we definately got more than I'd have thought for Gut. Even packaging him wouldn't have brought in more.

We do still have other CFers that we could trade as well if you wanted to go that route. Both Brantley and Crowe could still be moved (though I don't we'll see Brantley traded). Some teams may even value those guys much more than Gut.


I agree Grady is a CFer, but makes no sense to say you have to have more power at one of the cOF spots when you're getting enough from CF, where you typically don't get much power. Agree, though that you can't have 2 light hitting cOFers.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby TheWord » Mon Dec 15, 2008 3:49 pm

Not going to get involved in this discussion any futher, but when you're asked to come up with a legitimate trade offer including Gutz, you've got to do better than a team giving up 2 of its best players for B level prospects and guys that can't crack the bigs in Cleveland.

Even so, that trade would work just as well if you were to include Trevor Crowe in place of Gutierrez, which makes your whole point irrelavent anyway as it seems that you're trying to make an argument that we can no longer trade with any other pieces besides Franklin.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby jellis » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:07 pm

Really I think at the end of the day Gut's value is on pair with Melky Cabrera of the Yankees, and he might get traded as the player in a partial salary dump, I think that says a lot about where Gut's value was before the deal. Both defensive speicalist coming off down years after a good year
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:24 pm

TheWord wrote:Not going to get involved in this discussion any futher, but when you're asked to come up with a legitimate trade offer including Gutz, you've got to do better than a team giving up 2 of its best players for B level prospects and guys that can't crack the bigs in Cleveland.

Even so, that trade would work just as well if you were to include Trevor Crowe in place of Gutierrez, which makes your whole point irrelavent anyway as it seems that you're trying to make an argument that we can no longer trade with any other pieces besides Franklin.


Actually, as I said, I don't have to come up with a trade. Fool's bet. I bit on it. My mistake. Will try not to fall for that again. That being said, I anticipated that the Orioles didn't have a young CFer, having had Payton last year. If that was true then Trevor Crowe does not fit that bill as (a) he is questionably ML-ready and (b) he is a left fielder because of his really weak arm and the fact that his plate production is not Grady-like and his defense is questionably at that level.

The point is it was not a need that we traded Gutz before because we (or other teams) don't need a ROOGY, as evidenced by how few teams had one last year. Valbuena, well, if the guy can hit .270 with 12-15 HR and 80 BB and, say, 15 steals a year for 5 years and play slightly above average defense he is a good AL secondbaseman at the cost. I doubt he will and predict more likely .270, 60 BB, 5-8 HR and 10 steals and, at best, average defense. If that is the case I don't think he is really a starter on an AL club at 2B. We didn't trade him for a real need, just for guys who can fill some void in the organization that may not translate into being needed on the ML team in the future. For example, how many more years do we have the combo of Cabrera and Peralta? Until at least 2011 or three more seasons and, I think, Cabrera for 2012 and 2013, as well. In that time we could have acquired someone to replace Peralta.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:27 pm

jellis wrote:Really I think at the end of the day Gut's value is on pair with Melky Cabrera of the Yankees, and he might get traded as the player in a partial salary dump, I think that says a lot about where Gut's value was before the deal. Both defensive speicalist coming off down years after a good year


Straight up, that may be a good comparison. It is in combination with other pieces where, for example, he almost brought us Jason Bay last year. That speaks volumes to 3 for 1 or 4 for one trading.

I will give The Word credit, however. He points out that we still have bullets in that gun (e.g. Crowe) if we want to go that way. However, I don't think any OFer in our minors is as attractive or intriguing as Gutierrez. That is WHY we could trade him for what we got for him...but why he would have value in another trade, as well.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby jhonny » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:12 pm

"Almost brought us Jason Bay" is true except for the fact that the problem with that deal was always who else would be included. Looking back now, we would have traded Gutierrez at a high point, but Shoppach and Lee at bargain basement value.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby jellis » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:44 pm

dnosco wrote:
jellis wrote:Really I think at the end of the day Gut's value is on pair with Melky Cabrera of the Yankees, and he might get traded as the player in a partial salary dump, I think that says a lot about where Gut's value was before the deal. Both defensive speicalist coming off down years after a good year


Straight up, that may be a good comparison. It is in combination with other pieces where, for example, he almost brought us Jason Bay last year. That speaks volumes to 3 for 1 or 4 for one trading.

I will give The Word credit, however. He points out that we still have bullets in that gun (e.g. Crowe) if we want to go that way. However, I don't think any OFer in our minors is as attractive or intriguing as Gutierrez. That is WHY we could trade him for what we got for him...but why he would have value in another trade, as well.


Still that was last year and at this point I think Melky might carry a higher value because he has had more time to prove hismelf nad has had 2 solid years in his past. I think you have to look at the now and Gut's value was not high. I think to get what they got was a good deal just based on the market for OF
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Dec 15, 2008 9:14 pm

dnosco wrote:"No offense Denny, but if this is the best you can come up with for a fantasy trade, then I am really glad we have Shapiro running the team. I know this must make sense to you on some level but I am a whole lot happier with the use of Gutierrez in his trade than this one. What possible use would Baltimore have for half the players on your list including Gutz? Just doesn't add up? Throw something else against the wall"

Hey, trades are not easy to come up with. I did, as you suggested, throw something against the wall. It seems like you are saying 'prove we could have used him better'. Frankly (a) any trade I suggest you could poke holes in and (b) it's Shapiro's job. It's not the best I can come up with, by any means, but it is something. The point is that you believe this is an appropriate trade and I think we could have used Gutierrez in a better trade.

It's a sucker bet to say, as someone else did and you alluded to, propose a trade that is better. Yeah, it's like my mother used to say when I was a kid "Eat your vegetables, think of all the starving people in China", to which the response could be "Name two".

Hey, I totally missed Adam Jones in Baltimore as I didn't look at my depth chart.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/d ... p?c_id=bal

Other than that, what about my trade makes no sense? Finding a replacement for Melvin Mora sometime this year or next (Hodges)? Looking for a real first base prospect (Mills) in an organization not heavy in anything but pitching? Bringing in ML ready pitchers (Laffey, Miller) with one having upside and the other being serviceable right now?

Actually, besides that Baltimore has Adam Jones, this would have been a PERFECT trade for Baltimore. They immediately upgrade their farm system AND their major league roster and prepare themselves for the future in a division where you probably have to have all your ducks in a row to even have a one year shot at cracking the big two plus Tampa.


Come on Denny, You know that I don't give a damn about the braincramp on Adam Jones. That happens to all of us. I wouldn't have written anything if that was my problem. My problem is the logic, not the conclusion. You could include Betancourt instead of Gutz and I would still question your assumptions.

It has practically been a mantra with you that the Indians draftees are a pile of crap. I won't even go into your list of specific greivances on individual prospects on this list but overall they have not been flattering. Now why do you think the O's want these draftees who you consider to be dog doodoo? Are their standards less than the Indians? Now, I happen to think more of these prospects than what you have expressed but I am not the one making the argument that this is PERFECT. Have you had a change of heart and these prospects are now better than you previously pronounced? Now, I will admit that Guthrie would be a decent #3 and would make my buddy, Tony, real happy. But I really have a tough time with the cost/benefit of Brian Roberts. Now, if these guys are no good, why would the O's take them? If they are good, then why would the tribe give them up for one high cost year of an aging, but still valuable 2B. If you say the Indians should sign him long term, I will jump all over you and so will other posters. Not in the cards. For there to be any value, you would have to have more faith in Valbuena and other organizational assets than you have previously expressed. If money is the concern on Kerry Woods, then how can you justify the cost of Roberts? Can you see my point? Can you honestly say that you do the math and wind up with a different conclusion?

Now you know I think highly of Gutz as a ceiling player. But he is clearly more valuable to other organizations than he is to Cleveland. He may be the best defensive CF in baseball. While he has tremendous bat speed, his offensive performance has not shown the same advanced ability. He could be huge in Seattle but he is not right now. There is risk! He is not a perfect player and the tribe did not receive perfect players in return. Maybe equal value but certainly equal value to the Indians as their roster and prospects are currently configured.

You could take some of the players you mentioned and make a good case for Guthrie. TL would probably be happier than me but I would still have the same logic issue as to the O's incentive. :s_drinks
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 16, 2008 9:42 am

dnosco wrote:Actually, as I said, I don't have to come up with a trade. Fool's bet. I bit on it. My mistake. Will try not to fall for that again. That being said, I anticipated that the Orioles didn't have a young CFer, having had Payton last year. If that was true then Trevor Crowe does not fit that bill as (a) he is questionably ML-ready and (b) he is a left fielder because of his really weak arm and the fact that his plate production is not Grady-like and his defense is questionably at that level.

The point is it was not a need that we traded Gutz before because we (or other teams) don't need a ROOGY, as evidenced by how few teams had one last year. Valbuena, well, if the guy can hit .270 with 12-15 HR and 80 BB and, say, 15 steals a year for 5 years and play slightly above average defense he is a good AL secondbaseman at the cost. I doubt he will and predict more likely .270, 60 BB, 5-8 HR and 10 steals and, at best, average defense. If that is the case I don't think he is really a starter on an AL club at 2B. We didn't trade him for a real need, just for guys who can fill some void in the organization that may not translate into being needed on the ML team in the future. For example, how many more years do we have the combo of Cabrera and Peralta? Until at least 2011 or three more seasons and, I think, Cabrera for 2012 and 2013, as well. In that time we could have acquired someone to replace Peralta.


His arm plays better in CF where you don't need a strong arm. cOF spots typically have better arms than a CFer.....
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:52 pm

Hermie,

Actually the weakest arm in the OF is usually your left fielder who, of all the outfielders, usually makes the shortest throws. At least that is what I have learned over the years.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 16, 2008 2:31 pm

They do have the shortest throws, but on most teams, the weakest arm is in CF. You need to hit for average and have speed to play CF. The arm (and power) are the least important thing for a CFer.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Dec 16, 2008 3:07 pm

Herm, the arm is pretty important in CF. Unless you are a gifted offensive player where a team can live with a so-so or weak arm in CF (Sizemore, Lofton, etc), you sure as hell better have a strong-armed CF. I'd argue it is more important to have the best arm in CF than RF.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Dec 16, 2008 3:32 pm

Most teams have their worst arm in CF though. White Sox do, Cleveland does, Twins do (though Gomez still has a nice arm, just not as good as Young, Cuddyer, or Span), KC does. Detroit...not really sure with Guillen moving to LF how his arm will play there. And that's just the AL Central.

If you asked a scout which OF position typically has the worst arm, the answer would be CF.


There are some exceptions like with Upton in TB, though he's a transplanted infielder who's a great athlete. Will likely be moved to RF in a couple years for Desmond Jennings.

Yanks still have Cabrera who has a strong arm. Though the reason he's in CF and not LF is because Damon can't cover the ground in CF, not because of his arm.


CFers typically have more accurate arms than LFers, but not truly stronger ones. Partly because guys with strong arms tend to have more power and not as fast. Thus making them cOF guys.

I agree, that you'd prefer your weakest arm in LF.....but it doesn't normally work out that way. Speed and defense is much more important for a CFer than an arm. Crowe is better suited for CF than LF than say Brantley who isn't as fundamentally sound at reacting to balls and covering ground.
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Re: Gutierrez On the Way Out?

Postby dnosco » Sun Dec 21, 2008 10:02 am

You never know if Hoynes is telling the truth or just making stuff up but today's paper said that we could have had Heilman instead of Smith plus Valbuena.

If so, the die is cast. We know who we could have had and now we can see how it turns out. Me, I would have rather had Heilman

Time will tell.
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