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Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

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Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby dnosco » Mon Nov 10, 2008 3:01 pm

Loved the article, Tony.

http://www.theclevelandfan.com/article_ ... blgId=3902

However, I have to disagree with some points:

1) While the Indians didn't make a trade last winter here is an example of what they would have had to give up:

For Jason Bay and Ronnie Paulino: Gutierrez, Shoppach, Laffey and Cliff Lee.

Shapiro alluded to it as 'a painful deal' that he was willing to make...but the Pirates backed out at the last minute, according to the rumors at the time, BECAUSE WE DIDN'T OFFER ENOUGH!!!!!

It is just not fair to say the Indians didn't try. They just didn't overpay dramatically.

2) Regarding the accountability comment by the 'source', I think that source should comment on the accountability for having to, in a panic, give away CC. While you may be OK with the trade it would be hard to argue that trading him that early netted us any great return, especially when you see what Casey Blake got us. As far as accountability for the team, it's the old damned if you do, damned if you don't comment. They would not have won without Cliff Lee and Kelly Shoppach so if you trade them for Bay you lose anyway, plus you lose other guys. If you want to blame Shapiro for not trading away all of the future for the present well you can do that...but look how much good that did the Tigers with the Cabrera/Willis deal!

3) Regarding our farm system. We are not nearly the best in terms of talent, Tony, not even close. We have have the 15th best farm system right now which is average or, in another word, mediocre. We may be the best in terms of Joe Crede-like, Ben Francisco-like talent. But how much are guys like that, i.e., middle of the road, at best, major leaguers IF they reach their potential, going to get us? Not much. Look at what we have and the holes in their games.

Hodges - can't play defense, doesn't hit enough to play 1B
Mills - ditto plus he is still injured.
Miller - still injured
Laffey - 5th starter?
Brown - Doug Mienkewiz?
Crowe - Currently way undervalued and, as such, not worth his talent level
LaPorta - No defense and a bad last few months.
Santana - Can he catch in the majors?
Huff - Is he Jeremy Sowers/Aaron Laffey part 3?

Now, If we get the 'over' in value for the last 3 we can trade Santana or Huff or LaPorta or all three for a good return but, after those 3, I am pretty sure that we have no real tradeable pieces who would net us any more than the next Geoff Jenkins, Kevin Millar or Aubrey Huff or, if we are extermely lucky, the next Adam Dunn with all of the warts to his game. Even Dunn would cost more than he is worth in talent.

Our problem is that we don't have 'doubles', to use an old baseball card term, unless you count doubles of 4th outfielders, underpowered firstbaseman or 5th starters. We have Santana and LaPorta who I would trade in a minute if I could find someone who values those guys as much as Cleveland fans seem to. I would NEVER trade Huff unless I get a young stud under our control for 3 years in return.

4) When Tony spoke of prospects for veterans trades he left off the infamous Scott Stewart/Church/Izturis and Jeriome Robertson/Taveras/Scott trades. The bottom line is that Shapiro HAS made a number of these trades with pathetic results each and every time.

5) Regarding going toe-to-toe with the big boys in free agency, we COULD do this in Japanese free agency and not break the bank. How many Japanese free agents could we sign for the $20 million a year that CC will get? A lot. The problem is that we seem to lowball these guys (see Iwamura last year who signed for a REALLY reasonable rate and then played an important part this year with the world-series Tampa Bay Devil Rays). We can get good names in free agency...just not in the US. Hey, guys like Fukudome are clunkers that could happen and Japanese free agents seem to be older and more abused but even Matuzaka, the most highly bid on Japanese free agent in history, only cost, including posting fee, $111 million for 6 years. Ichiro cost $14 million in 2000 free agent dollars. The Japanese 'bargains' are out there. They come without a major league track record but, if you are going to gamble, gamble with money and not prospects. Plus don't coke on the Iwamura signings any more.

6) If you want to gamble, throw 5 or 6 of our top prospects at one of another teams' ML ready prospects or young stud guys. How about:

Zimmerman and a couple of bit piece veterans that a last place team doesn't need for Huff, Santana, Hodges and Miller. Now there is a gamble.

Gordon (KC) and the same type of bit pieces for the same guys. Now there is a bigger gamble.

Make those trades and you are making a great gamble. But, aside from those deals, I would stay away from most deals (see Jason Bay example). They are worse gambles than free agent gambles, IMHO, and certainly worse than Japanese free agent gambles.
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Nov 10, 2008 3:34 pm

Mills definately hits well enough for 1B. He's got 30 HR potential. His injury isn't keeping him from playing 1B/DH really.

I wouldn't give up that much for Zimmerman (even if they throw something else in). He's pretty overrated and has some injury concerns. I know what you're getting at....but Zimmerman isn't the type of guy I'm going after with my top prospects. Same with Gordon. He's not much better than what he currently have. Trade those guys for something much more proven.
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby jellis » Mon Nov 10, 2008 4:23 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Mills definately hits well enough for 1B. He's got 30 HR potential. His injury isn't keeping him from playing 1B/DH really.

I wouldn't give up that much for Zimmerman (even if they throw something else in). He's pretty overrated and has some injury concerns. I know what you're getting at....but Zimmerman isn't the type of guy I'm going after with my top prospects. Same with Gordon. He's not much better than what he currently have. Trade those guys for something much more proven.


I agree and disagree. I think Gordon and Zimmerman are over rated and neither has showed much other than just being solid. Gordon has really been a disappointment in terms of his potential

I still think Mills has more like 25 HR pop
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby dnosco » Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:42 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Mills definately hits well enough for 1B. He's got 30 HR potential. His injury isn't keeping him from playing 1B/DH really.

I wouldn't give up that much for Zimmerman (even if they throw something else in). He's pretty overrated and has some injury concerns. I know what you're getting at....but Zimmerman isn't the type of guy I'm going after with my top prospects. Same with Gordon. He's not much better than what he currently have. Trade those guys for something much more proven.



Regarding Mills, I am thinking 25 HR pop at 1B which is not more than Garko in a good year. Not eye-popping enough to make him anything close to untouchable combined with the thought that he will be league average, AT BEST, at 1B. I rate Garko over Mills right now as they both appear to have equal ceilings and we know Garko is close to reaching his.

Regarding Zimmerman, he was the 15th best prospect in baseball before he reached the majors for good in 2006. He was hardly in the minors at all so I chalk up his good though not great results (he was 23 this year) to on-the-job learning. Regarding Gordon, he was Baseball America's #2 prospect (after DiceK) before the 2007 season. Both these guys have underperformed from superstar levels but both are solid.

Now, this is the trouble. We overvalue our own prospects, none of whom will probably make the top 50 prospects in baseball and when we get a chance to bundle them for a solid major leaguer who is young and has all-star potential all we see is the negatives.

This is the point I am making about Tony's article. It just seems like we are not seeing the right picture here. We are OK with getting #25 LaPorta for CC and yet we won't trade our own middle-of-the-road prospects who only we value greatly for a guy who fills a need. :s_dunno
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby jellis » Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:46 pm

dnosco wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:Mills definately hits well enough for 1B. He's got 30 HR potential. His injury isn't keeping him from playing 1B/DH really.

I wouldn't give up that much for Zimmerman (even if they throw something else in). He's pretty overrated and has some injury concerns. I know what you're getting at....but Zimmerman isn't the type of guy I'm going after with my top prospects. Same with Gordon. He's not much better than what he currently have. Trade those guys for something much more proven.



Regarding Mills, I am thinking 25 HR pop at 1B which is not more than Garko in a good year. Not eye-popping enough to make him anything close to untouchable combined with the thought that he will be league average, AT BEST, at 1B. I rate Garko over Mills right now as they both appear to have equal ceilings and we know Garko is close to reaching his.

Regarding Zimmerman, he was the 15th best prospect in baseball before he reached the majors for good in 2006. He was hardly in the minors at all so I chalk up his good though not great results (he was 23 this year) to on-the-job learning. Regarding Gordon, he was Baseball America's #2 prospect (after DiceK) before the 2007 season. Both these guys have underperformed from superstar levels but both are solid.

Now, this is the trouble. We overvalue our own prospects, none of whom will probably make the top 50 prospects in baseball and when we get a chance to bundle them for a solid major leaguer who is young and has all-star potential all we see is the negatives.

This is the point I am making about Tony's article. It just seems like we are not seeing the right picture here. We are OK with getting #25 LaPorta for CC and yet we won't trade our own middle-of-the-road prospects who only we value greatly for a guy who fills a need. :s_dunno



I bet right now laporta is in the top 20 if not the top ten for BA this year and santana will also make the top 50, you really seem to never ever be able to say anything good or nice ever. I agree with you sometimes, but the shear amount of negativity undermines you arguments

Gordon was a high spec but has shown avg skills in the majors and Zimmerman small time in the minors he tore it up and has regressed every year in the majors
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:33 pm

Thanks Denny (I think). :s_howdy

Anyway, I did in fact ask that source about the CC trade when it happened, and he liked it. Wasn't blown away by it, but likes the deal and felt no matter who we got in Green/Brantley that it was a fair trade for both teams and will benefit both.

As for the Indians system, I've talked to about a dozen agents and scouts for other teams this offseason, and 10 of the 12 put them Top 10 and the other two said they just miss. It is a good system, one that made some nice progress with players already here last year and with players they obtained like LaPorta, Santana, Meloan, and Brantley.
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby dnosco » Tue Nov 11, 2008 12:49 am

Consigliere wrote:Thanks Denny (I think). :s_howdy

Anyway, I did in fact ask that source about the CC trade when it happened, and he liked it. Wasn't blown away by it, but likes the deal and felt no matter who we got in Green/Brantley that it was a fair trade for both teams and will benefit both.

As for the Indians system, I've talked to about a dozen agents and scouts for other teams this offseason, and 10 of the 12 put them Top 10 and the other two said they just miss. It is a good system, one that made some nice progress with players already here last year and with players they obtained like LaPorta, Santana, Meloan, and Brantley.


I distinctly remember the interviews you did with scout(s) about the Akron and Kinston players. The guy had negative things to say about almost all of the Akron players, including Hodges, who he indicated was a hack in the field and couldn't stay at third. If this same guy is putting the Indians in the top 10 then you have to worry about his credibility.

All that this top 10 thing means to me, if it is really true, is that we have a bunch of Ben Franciscos and Aaron Laffeys, many more than other teams. However, truth be told you don't get much for the Ben Franciscos or Aaron Laffeys of the world if you are trading. So, top 10 or not, if you press these guys if 3 or 4 of our prospects can get you a blue chip guy like, say a Ryan Zimmerman and they say no, then it means to me that, while these guys make our farm system strong in terms of depth, it does little to give us trade chips for blue chip talent. We will essentially be doing only Scott Stewart or broken down veteran we will take a flyer on kind of trades...something none of us wants to squander our resources on.
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby dnosco » Tue Nov 11, 2008 12:56 am

"I bet right now laporta is in the top 20 if not the top ten for BA this year and santana will also make the top 50, you really seem to never ever be able to say anything good or nice ever. I agree with you sometimes, but the shear amount of negativity undermines you arguments

Gordon was a high spec but has shown avg skills in the majors and Zimmerman small time in the minors he tore it up and has regressed every year in the majors"

If you believe that LaPorta, after his second half, is top 10 in all of baseball and Gordon is average and Zimmerman is regressing it is you that have the issue in overvaluing our prospects and undervaluing true baseball talent. Truth be told all of the guys I suggested trading, with the exception of Huff, have very little chance to be any more than Zimmerman or Gordon are now, even at their upside.

Hey, if anyone out there thinks LaPorta is one of the very best prospects in all of baseball (that is what top 10 means) then I would make a trade with that team right now because LaPorta would have the highest value he will ever have. Now, Santana in the top 50 makes sense...unless you realize that he was traded for Casey Blake AND that the Dodgers are not idiots. No way he is that good if he was traded along with Meloan for a couple of months of Casey Blake.

Regarding never being able to say anything nice, that's not true. I have learned, however, that gushing over our prospects and undervaluing true talent at a position we need is a sure way to disaster.
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Nov 11, 2008 11:39 am

I all but gurantee that LaPorta will be a top 10 prospect by BA this winter.

And Zimmerman's injuries have really slowed him down. Marte was a top prospect in all of baseball as well remember. Are you suggesting that he should start for us then? (I know you're not, just making a point). Just because a guy was a top prospect doesn't mean we should trade away our top prospects to get him.

LaPorta is definately top 50 (that I gurantee). Santana will be up there, same with Mills and Hodges (Hodges was in the top 80 last year by BP, and had a solid year). Melon could be top 100 as well. could easily have 5 guys in the top 100. Not a bad feat.
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby jellis » Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:06 pm

dnosco wrote:"I bet right now laporta is in the top 20 if not the top ten for BA this year and santana will also make the top 50, you really seem to never ever be able to say anything good or nice ever. I agree with you sometimes, but the shear amount of negativity undermines you arguments

Gordon was a high spec but has shown avg skills in the majors and Zimmerman small time in the minors he tore it up and has regressed every year in the majors"

If you believe that LaPorta, after his second half, is top 10 in all of baseball and Gordon is average and Zimmerman is regressing it is you that have the issue in overvaluing our prospects and undervaluing true baseball talent. Truth be told all of the guys I suggested trading, with the exception of Huff, have very little chance to be any more than Zimmerman or Gordon are now, even at their upside.

Hey, if anyone out there thinks LaPorta is one of the very best prospects in all of baseball (that is what top 10 means) then I would make a trade with that team right now because LaPorta would have the highest value he will ever have. Now, Santana in the top 50 makes sense...unless you realize that he was traded for Casey Blake AND that the Dodgers are not idiots. No way he is that good if he was traded along with Meloan for a couple of months of Casey Blake.

Regarding never being able to say anything nice, that's not true. I have learned, however, that gushing over our prospects and undervaluing true talent at a position we need is a sure way to disaster.



if you look at zimmermans stats he has regressed thats what I based it on and Gordon has never lived up to his hype. I think Laporta could be a lot like them or better, thats the reason why I woudl rather have him right now. Plus the whole vested years point where you will have gordon or Zimmerman for less years. Also the Indians might have to give up more than just laporta. I am not over valuign laporta when BA did there number one minor league player, Weiters, they vote they had on site was 5 players involving Laporta and he was also listed 8th best spec by BA at the midway point. H could hit 30-25 Hrs down the road and I would rather have that then a 3B who always gets hurt and has regressed statsically the last 2 years and a 3B who glove and bat have really failed to live up to anything near his hype
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:32 pm

LaPorta is iffy as a Top 10 BA guy, but should be a Top 20-25 guy. Santana should be in the Top 40-60 as well. The Indians also likely place Huff and Weglarz in the Top 100.....with Mills, Hodges and Rondon likely out (but any of which could slip into the listing).
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Re: Tony's article on Shapiro/trades

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:40 pm

I just don't see any of the other top prospects being that much better than LaPorta (except for Price, Weiters, and Maybin). Rasmus had a down year. Heywad is up there but not overly better if at all. Same with Snider.


Don't think Meloan gets in the top 100?

minorleaguebaseball.com has him top 100 for 2009.....


Also depends on who you want to go by as far as rankings. MiLB.com had Adam Miller as the 10th best prospect in baseball last year to start the year.......
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