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Dark days!

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Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Sun Apr 12, 2009 12:00 am

Darkest day in Cleveland baseball in my memory?

I don't know. But I know our 'ace' has pitched twice and has looked like the 2007 Cliff Lee both times, at least as far as performance.

Longest losing streak to begin a season in Indians' history says it all. Hey, those of us rooting in the 60s, 70s and 80s expected suckitude like this and so it was less difficult to take when stuff like this happened. But even those teams didn't lose like this.

BTW. the comment about comparisons to the 2008 Detroit Tigers? Ridiculous. Even if we stink the rest of this year we are not nearly as old as the Tigers were and have a much brighter future than they do, based on the age of their team last year.

I don't know what to say. If I say that it's early and things can change I'd be lying to myself. If my comments were gloom and doom, well, it is obvious that no one ever will want to hear that.

One thing I do know, you don't trade the future to fix this. THAT would be even more stupid than just letting it go down the tank.

BTW, what is the over/under on the Indians record in April for Wedge to be fired the first week in May? Not saying I want that but what do you think it is?

One more comment: Do I want Shapiro's head or that of any of his staff? No! To me the fear of the unknown and the jokers we had in here before Hart and Shapiro and, in fact, before Mirabelli, don't make me want to switch ANYONE at this point. Some of the joke drafts and deals before these guys are some of the most comical and innane in baseball history so, no, I don't want to bring in some yahoos and repeat that.

Just let it run its course. Maybe a miracle will occur!
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Re: Dark days!

Postby stoike » Sun Apr 12, 2009 12:24 am

It is simple, really. If the pitching settles down a little (Or...a lot, I should say) and we do not have half of the rotation injured by May, we will bounce back. If not....well...maybe we will have a very high draft choice, new manager to manage the youth we will have on the roster. UGH.....
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Re: Dark days!

Postby JP_Frost » Sun Apr 12, 2009 9:00 am

the team will be alright eventually. This type of pitching won't continue the entire season, I mean how many teams give up over 10 runs a game for the entire season, or even the first few weeks? We just need a solid start from the rotation, and I'm confident the bullpen will do its job. The offense has looked better than the start of last year I think, and I wouldn't be surprised if the team somehow has a breakthrough game today.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Sun Apr 12, 2009 10:27 am

Carl Pavano is the 3rd (or 4th) starter on this team. Before Scott Lewis got hurt he was a LONG, LONG shot to be effective in the majors with an 85 mph fastball.

Only a miracle would have allowed this team to have good starting pitching this year. All the stars would have had to line up (including Reyes staying healthy and being much more effective than he has been in his recent career, Lee pitching like he did last year and Carmona pitching like he did in 2007)

Plus, then there is the bullpen, the starting lineup and the bench (i.e. Dellucci).

All the stars would have to line up for this team to be successful and, it appears, that isn't going to come close to happen.

I mean, just look at the "ifs" and "can't continues" in the two posts above.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby JP_Frost » Sun Apr 12, 2009 11:19 am

The only ifs are in the rotation, and we don't need Lee to pitch like last year (though we don't need him to pitch like this year either). An improvement from Carmona, a regression from Lee, Reyes staying healthy would make this rotation pretty solid. I have confidence in Laffey, Lewis, Sowers and Huff handling the 4 and/or 5 spot, and everything Pavano gives us is a plus. Let's not forget that Westbrook will be back as well somewhere in June. Couple that with some of the youngsters in the minors like Rondon, the rotation can certainly be successful.

The way the pitching staff has performed isn't really representative of its talent at all. There's no way you can win alot of games if you give up 10 runs, but that likely won't continue, because it simply can't.

So, I don't think all the stars would have to line up for this team to be successful, especially when you consider the division we're playing in. The real concern right now is not falling behind too far too soon, but there's no such thing after 5 games. A win today could do wonders and might spark a "turnaround". It's easy to already hit the panic button, but that's just way too premature.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby MadThinker88 » Sun Apr 12, 2009 12:07 pm

Doesn't the saying go: 'it's darkest before the dawn'?

'Dawn' is right around the corner with the waves of talent in Columbus and Akron.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby stoike » Sun Apr 12, 2009 1:10 pm

dnosco wrote:Carl Pavano is the 3rd (or 4th) starter on this team. Before Scott Lewis got hurt he was a LONG, LONG shot to be effective in the majors with an 85 mph fastball.

Only a miracle would have allowed this team to have good starting pitching this year. All the stars would have had to line up (including Reyes staying healthy and being much more effective than he has been in his recent career, Lee pitching like he did last year and Carmona pitching like he did in 2007)

Plus, then there is the bullpen, the starting lineup and the bench (i.e. Dellucci).

All the stars would have to line up for this team to be successful and, it appears, that isn't going to come close to happen.

I mean, just look at the "ifs" and "can't continues" in the two posts above.


Pavano throws a bit harder than 85, (87-89) but regardless, if he does not have command, he is toast, although that is true for most pitchers to varying degrees. The bullpen is going to be very solid, and the lineup VERY much so, so quit mentioning them in your typically bleak, cathartic posts. You lose any and all credibility when you refuse to acknowledge the strengths, and make everything out to be a weakness. Kind of sad, really....
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Re: Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Mon Apr 13, 2009 10:38 am

FIrst, I was talking about Lewis throwing 85.

Second, we don't know anything about the bullpen yet. Perez got lit up, Betancourt has been shaky as has Smith. Woods has had one good outing. Kobayashi is a real question mark and Chulk has AAAA stuff. Yeah, the bullpen MIGHT be solid but, please. So far there is no evidence to what you say and history on the subject shows bullpens are difficult to predict.

Third, you have no idea about the lineup. It could be solid if Hafner comes back strong as it appears but it is not nearly the given you make it out to be and it isn't exactly like it was scoring enough runs to win in all but one of six games so far, and against mostly mediocre pitching (except for Halladay).
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Re: Dark days!

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Apr 13, 2009 10:47 am

MadThinker88 wrote:Doesn't the saying go: 'it's darkest before the dawn'?

'Dawn' is right around the corner with the waves of talent in Columbus and Akron.


This is the way I see it.

Felt going in that this season would be a feeling out process with many positions on the team to sort of get ready for what looks like a big run in 2010. Even still, the talent is here to win this year. Just that it is going to be a year long feeling out process with the rotation to hopefully get it setup for 2010 and define all our holes. So many unknowns everywhere now. Lots of depth and options, but need almost a full season to play out and see how players fit in.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Mon Apr 13, 2009 11:58 am

Tony,

Agree completely. I don't know how much of the opening day roster will even be on the 25-man roster come August 1st. I could see some wholesale turnover and STILL win this division. That is why I am so torn on this team. On one hand I see the potential gaping holes. On the other, I see a weakened division and guys coming back from poor seasons and injuries who are surely going to improve their performance and, frankly, not a lot of guys, except for Lee, who I expect to drop off significantly this year.

This leads to, I think, exactly what you are saying. We can win this year with the pieces we have in the minors and majors IF everything goes right. At the same time there is a distinct possibility that this will be a complete collapse this year followed by an 'amazing' turnaround in 2010. Of course, it won't be amazing, it would just be young guys infused into 2010 and the team, as a whole, performing better than this year.

In either case, the future is bright. I just don't like all the excuses and unwarranted optimism. It just isn't reality. I think we can win but I know it will take a bunch of things, including the rest of the division playing totally mediocre or bad baseball, and for our starting pitching to pick up and for the rest of the team to perform up to expectations for this to happen.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby JP_Frost » Mon Apr 13, 2009 2:14 pm

dnosco wrote:Tony,

Agree completely. I don't know how much of the opening day roster will even be on the 25-man roster come August 1st. I could see some wholesale turnover and STILL win this division. That is why I am so torn on this team. On one hand I see the potential gaping holes. On the other, I see a weakened division and guys coming back from poor seasons and injuries who are surely going to improve their performance and, frankly, not a lot of guys, except for Lee, who I expect to drop off significantly this year.

This leads to, I think, exactly what you are saying. We can win this year with the pieces we have in the minors and majors IF everything goes right. At the same time there is a distinct possibility that this will be a complete collapse this year followed by an 'amazing' turnaround in 2010. Of course, it won't be amazing, it would just be young guys infused into 2010 and the team, as a whole, performing better than this year.

In either case, the future is bright. I just don't like all the excuses and unwarranted optimism. It just isn't reality. I think we can win but I know it will take a bunch of things, including the rest of the division playing totally mediocre or bad baseball, and for our starting pitching to pick up and for the rest of the team to perform up to expectations for this to happen.


First of all, there hasn't been any unwarranted optimism. Nobody said we would win 95+ games with this team and make it to the WS. Almost all of us feel that this team could win about 85-90 games and take the division. That's not unrealistic at all.

Secondly, you contradict yourself by saying that we play in a weakened division, and then claiming that the rest of the teams would have to play bad/mediocre baseball. The AL Central could very well be won with just 85 games or so. This team is capable of that. Obviously, some things have to work out like we hope they do, but that goes for every team in the majors. Besides, I really don't see which of the division rivals are that much better than the tribe at the moment.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Apr 14, 2009 9:21 am

Not worried at all yet. Season is barely a week old.

We started off 11-1 (10 game winning streak) a few years ago then lost like 7 in a row and fell well out of the playoff picture. Getting off to a great start is always nice....but doesn't define your season at all.

CC looked worse than Lee has his first 2 starts last year yet looked like the best pitcher in all of baseball by season's end. Has it been above 50 degrees yet for an entire game yet?
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Re: Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Tue Apr 14, 2009 2:41 pm

"First of all, there hasn't been any unwarranted optimism. Nobody said we would win 95+ games with this team and make it to the WS. Almost all of us feel that this team could win about 85-90 games and take the division. That's not unrealistic at all."


Any comment about Carl Pavano having a snowball's chance in hell of being effective is unwarranted optimisim. :-) Heck, the positive commentary on Hafner is unwarranted optimisim, IMHO. A rotation of Lee, Carmona, Pavano, Reyes and Lewis should have warranted no optimisim at all, just fear. Almost any team in baseball could win 85 games if it all breaks right for them. Some just have a lot more chance of that happening than others.

"Secondly, you contradict yourself by saying that we play in a weakened division, and then claiming that the rest of the teams would have to play bad/mediocre baseball. The AL Central could very well be won with just 85 games or so. This team is capable of that. Obviously, some things have to work out like we hope they do, but that goes for every team in the majors. Besides, I really don't see which of the division rivals are that much better than the tribe at the moment."


And, none of us really saw the White Sox or Twins winning the division last year, either. Looking over the last 5 years or so an average of one division a year (17%) had a division champion with 85 wins or less. I would venture to say that there are only 3 or 4 teams in all of baseball who aren't CAPABLE of winning at least 85 games this season. The question is, with this team, what are the ODDS of us winning 85 and no one else in the division winning 85 or more? Those odds are pretty small, IMHO....and that is if the whole thing doesn't fall down, which, I hold, has much bigger odds of happening than us winning this division.

The most comical thing about this exchange is you taking a mostly positive post by me and insinuating it isn't positive enough for you and THEN claiming you aren't overly optomistic. :s_rofl
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Apr 14, 2009 2:58 pm

I'd say the odds of us winning 85 games are better than 50-50 even at this point. 81 wins last year after trading our Ace (CC), losing our 3 and 4 hitters (VMart and Pronk), losing our #3 starter to TJ surgery (Westbrook), trading our #4 pitcher (Byrd), and losing our #2 starter for part of the year to injury (Byrd)...

Despite ALL that this team won 81 games. Did we have some breaks? Yes, Cliff Lee was definitely an unexpected pleasure last year. Shoppach was a break too last year....but other than that? Maybe Choo? But he still had a slow first half. We had a revolving door for a bit at 2B after AC struggled and barfield went down.

We had almost no breaks last year and won 81. With 1 or 2 this year this team is an 85 win team even with the rotation as it is. Am I being overly optimistic? I don't think so at all, but fair enough if others think so. We had some of the worst luck last year and still won 81 games.

And then there's 2007. If I'd have we'd win 96 games and tie for the best record in all of baseball DESPITE losing our #2 (Jake starter to the DL for part of the year, lose the #3 (Lee) and #4 (Sowers) to the minors leagues for much of the year, have only 3 bullpen guys last the entire year...and two of the 3 being named Borowski and Mastny, that Carmona who was in the minors for part of the year would win 19 games, and we'd have 5 of our starting 9 position players either benched, hurt, or in the minors from opening day (Barfield, Nixon, Dellucci, Marte, and Blake) you would have told me I was the biggest nut of all time and to pass the pipe.

Yet that's exactly what happened. Big difference between those years and this year is the starting pitching obviously. it was stronger going into those two season than this year. But our offense is stronger than both argueably, and the bullpen is definitely stronger.


So is 85 wins a bit optimitic? yeah maybe....but far, FAR from out of the question. Even 90 wins is still very, very doable.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Tue Apr 14, 2009 4:42 pm

One thing to remember is the poor state of starting pitching in baseball. Kevin Millwood was Texas' opening day starter and they followed him with Padilla.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:58 pm

dnosco wrote:
"First of all, there hasn't been any unwarranted optimism. Nobody said we would win 95+ games with this team and make it to the WS. Almost all of us feel that this team could win about 85-90 games and take the division. That's not unrealistic at all."


Any comment about Carl Pavano having a snowball's chance in hell of being effective is unwarranted optimisim. :-) Heck, the positive commentary on Hafner is unwarranted optimisim, IMHO. A rotation of Lee, Carmona, Pavano, Reyes and Lewis should have warranted no optimisim at all, just fear. Almost any team in baseball could win 85 games if it all breaks right for them. Some just have a lot more chance of that happening than others.

"Secondly, you contradict yourself by saying that we play in a weakened division, and then claiming that the rest of the teams would have to play bad/mediocre baseball. The AL Central could very well be won with just 85 games or so. This team is capable of that. Obviously, some things have to work out like we hope they do, but that goes for every team in the majors. Besides, I really don't see which of the division rivals are that much better than the tribe at the moment."


And, none of us really saw the White Sox or Twins winning the division last year, either. Looking over the last 5 years or so an average of one division a year (17%) had a division champion with 85 wins or less. I would venture to say that there are only 3 or 4 teams in all of baseball who aren't CAPABLE of winning at least 85 games this season. The question is, with this team, what are the ODDS of us winning 85 and no one else in the division winning 85 or more? Those odds are pretty small, IMHO....and that is if the whole thing doesn't fall down, which, I hold, has much bigger odds of happening than us winning this division.

The most comical thing about this exchange is you taking a mostly positive post by me and insinuating it isn't positive enough for you and THEN claiming you aren't overly optomistic. :s_rofl


Well, if you consider that a positive post then I must seem like a motivational speaker to you.

There's a big difference between being optimistic on a pretty realistic level and being overly pessimistic as well. You're saying this team has a chance to win about 85 games IF all goes right, and I think this team has a chance to win 85 even if everything doesn't line up. If you look at last year's team and their 81 wins (like Hermie just did), I do feel that our improved bullpen and better offense should be able to account for those handful of extra wins, even with the question marks in the rotation. Obviously we won't get there if the starting pitching continues to suck like it has, but if you wanna talk about odds, odds are it won't.

This division is pretty weak, but deep. I never said that winning 85 would for sure win you the central by a landslide, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if all 5 teams are within 6 or 7 games from each other at the end of the year. However, it's not like a couple of years ago when everyone felt you had to win atleast 93+ to clinch the crown. If you combine that with the Tribe's potential this year, I like our odds. Maybe you consider that blind optimism, but there are alot of pretty knowledgable people out there who feel the same way, so perhaps you're a bit too glass half empty.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:09 am

There's a big difference between being optimistic on a pretty realistic level and being overly pessimistic as well. You're saying this team has a chance to win about 85 games IF all goes right, and I think this team has a chance to win 85 even if everything doesn't line up. If you look at last year's team and their 81 wins (like Hermie just did), I do feel that our improved bullpen and better offense should be able to account for those handful of extra wins, even with the question marks in the rotation. Obviously we won't get there if the starting pitching continues to suck like it has, but if you wanna talk about odds, odds are it won't.


Right now the bullpen sucks, the hitting sucks, the situational hitting sucks, the defense ain't too good, the starting pitching sucks, our DH is more than likely toast, do I go on. You are saying that our downside is 85 wins? Heck, the way we are playing right now our downside looks more like 50 wins.

This division is pretty weak, but deep. I never said that winning 85 would for sure win you the central by a landslide, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if all 5 teams are within 6 or 7 games from each other at the end of the year. However, it's not like a couple of years ago when everyone felt you had to win atleast 93+ to clinch the crown. If you combine that with the Tribe's potential this year, I like our odds. Maybe you consider that blind optimism, but there are alot of pretty knowledgable people out there who feel the same way, so perhaps you're a bit too glass half empty.


So, this division sucks deeply? Again, no one thought Chicago or Minnesota would win like they did last year and, except for 3 or 4 teams in all of baseball anyone can win 85 games. So your plan is everyone will suck and we will suck just a little less? That's your plan?

Look, I want them to succeed as much as anyone, but many of those same 'knowledgeable' people said they would win the whole thing when we went 81-81 and even two years before that. I am thinking that the knowledgeable people are not too knowledgeable. Basically, they have no idea. So, as Cleveland fans we have to have blind optimism because, for years, we had not hint of real optimism possible. But to look at this thing as anything more than a disaster that projects to continue throughout the year is just not realistic. Not saying it won't miraculously turn itself around, but look at your hopes for the future:

Lee being a true ace this year? Carmona being more like 2007 than 2008? Huff or Rondon to replace Pavano and Lewis? Reyes staying healthy and being better than he was in the NL? Hafner recovering? Dellucci hitting or being replaced by someone who can? Our bullpen holding together with Wood's back and with, essentially, no help past Meloan at AAA?

Hey, beyond these things the team appears solid but not spectacular...and that won't get it done with our pitching, lack of quality defense and lack of team speed.

Nothing is working right when EVERYTHING has to be working right for use to distance ourselves from at least THREE teams that could win our division. What are the odds of one of those teams having a very good year? Probably pretty good and much better than all of them tanking.

No, the more we play the more it is apparent that this team has serious problems that, with even one cylinder not clicking, we are going to be in serious trouble.

But all six cylinders COULD continue to fire for the rest of the season, right?

Hey, we aren't Washington or Pittsburgh but we have to be realistic. This season is in jeopardy even as early as right now. We can still win this thing but not with the guys we have now and, frankly, pitching-wise, there isn't much certainty at AAA or AA. Let's just hang on and see what happens but after last night and tonight, piled on to last week, how anyone can think this team has a chance is beyond me.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:17 am

Reminds me of Bill Murray's line from Ghostbuster's. Pretty much Old Testament wrath! The world is coming to an end! :s_devil
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 9:06 am

dnosco wrote:Right now the bullpen sucks, the hitting sucks, the situational hitting sucks, the defense ain't too good, the starting pitching sucks, our DH is more than likely toast, do I go on. You are saying that our downside is 85 wins? Heck, the way we are playing right now our downside looks more like 50 wins.


Disagree a bit here. Our hitting hasn't been 'that' bad (yes our team average is only .246), but we've been getting hits.....but as you said right after, the situational hitting has been abysmal. We're piling up hits and even out hit teams in losses at times.....but going 1 for 14 or whatever we go with RISP isn't gonna win many games. I even said the opening series that this situational hitting was my biggest concern.

And yes...please go on. Cause the DH being 'toast' has little merit right now. Guy is leading the team in HRs (and one of the tops in the league) and RBIs. You can call him a 'slap hitter' all you want, but he looks nothing like a slap hitter when I've seen him hitting (or are you continuing your Hafner bashing to keep him hitting? lol). The defense also hasn't been that bad. Other than Choo struggling in RF I haven't really seen too many miscues. DeRosa made a phenomenal play last night (though turned out to be meaningless) at 3B, showing why he's there and not 2B. Carmona made some mental errors, but weren't really defensive miscues.


All in all, the pitching and situational hitting are the only things that need improving right now. I have faith in the pen and the hitting.......the rotation? I do still have faith it can right itself.....but it's dwindling.....
Last edited by Hermie13 on Wed Apr 15, 2009 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 9:10 am

If this last week+ would have happened in June or July no one would be that worried. There's still over 150 games to play....we're only 4 games out and only have 1 win!!! If we play .550 ball the rest of the year we win 85+ games......and .550 ball isn't out of the question for this team, even with this pitching staff.....
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Re: Dark days!

Postby JP_Frost » Wed Apr 15, 2009 11:40 am

dnosco wrote:
There's a big difference between being optimistic on a pretty realistic level and being overly pessimistic as well. You're saying this team has a chance to win about 85 games IF all goes right, and I think this team has a chance to win 85 even if everything doesn't line up. If you look at last year's team and their 81 wins (like Hermie just did), I do feel that our improved bullpen and better offense should be able to account for those handful of extra wins, even with the question marks in the rotation. Obviously we won't get there if the starting pitching continues to suck like it has, but if you wanna talk about odds, odds are it won't.


Right now the bullpen sucks, the hitting sucks, the situational hitting sucks, the defense ain't too good, the starting pitching sucks, our DH is more than likely toast, do I go on. You are saying that our downside is 85 wins? Heck, the way we are playing right now our downside looks more like 50 wins.

This division is pretty weak, but deep. I never said that winning 85 would for sure win you the central by a landslide, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if all 5 teams are within 6 or 7 games from each other at the end of the year. However, it's not like a couple of years ago when everyone felt you had to win atleast 93+ to clinch the crown. If you combine that with the Tribe's potential this year, I like our odds. Maybe you consider that blind optimism, but there are alot of pretty knowledgable people out there who feel the same way, so perhaps you're a bit too glass half empty.


So, this division sucks deeply? Again, no one thought Chicago or Minnesota would win like they did last year and, except for 3 or 4 teams in all of baseball anyone can win 85 games. So your plan is everyone will suck and we will suck just a little less? That's your plan?

Look, I want them to succeed as much as anyone, but many of those same 'knowledgeable' people said they would win the whole thing when we went 81-81 and even two years before that. I am thinking that the knowledgeable people are not too knowledgeable. Basically, they have no idea. So, as Cleveland fans we have to have blind optimism because, for years, we had not hint of real optimism possible. But to look at this thing as anything more than a disaster that projects to continue throughout the year is just not realistic. Not saying it won't miraculously turn itself around, but look at your hopes for the future:

Lee being a true ace this year? Carmona being more like 2007 than 2008? Huff or Rondon to replace Pavano and Lewis? Reyes staying healthy and being better than he was in the NL? Hafner recovering? Dellucci hitting or being replaced by someone who can? Our bullpen holding together with Wood's back and with, essentially, no help past Meloan at AAA?

Hey, beyond these things the team appears solid but not spectacular...and that won't get it done with our pitching, lack of quality defense and lack of team speed.

Nothing is working right when EVERYTHING has to be working right for use to distance ourselves from at least THREE teams that could win our division. What are the odds of one of those teams having a very good year? Probably pretty good and much better than all of them tanking.

No, the more we play the more it is apparent that this team has serious problems that, with even one cylinder not clicking, we are going to be in serious trouble.

But all six cylinders COULD continue to fire for the rest of the season, right?

Hey, we aren't Washington or Pittsburgh but we have to be realistic. This season is in jeopardy even as early as right now. We can still win this thing but not with the guys we have now and, frankly, pitching-wise, there isn't much certainty at AAA or AA. Let's just hang on and see what happens but after last night and tonight, piled on to last week, how anyone can think this team has a chance is beyond me.


Did you ever learn to read?

I never said the downside of this team is 85 wins, I said that this team's upside is higher than that, and even without perfect alignment of sun, moon and stars this team could reach that 85 win mark. Don't twist my words just to justify your point of view.

"So, this division sucks deeply?" Again, read what I said. The division isn't very good (but it doesn't suck either), but it is deep meaning that possibly all 5 teams could win it or atleast be contenders. Looking at these teams on paper, none strike me as a bonafide 90+ win collective, but all of them are pretty competitive to the point that they can play above .500 ball. That's not what I call sucking. And we don't need them to "suck" more than we do, because we have a chance to be the best team of the bunch. If you feel that these first few games are representative of the Tribe's talents, you're either the most pessimistic person in the world, or don't understand anything about baseball at all.

It's funny that you think our division rivals will get everything together and the Indians won't. Are really a fan, or do you just want to see this team fail so you can say "I told you so"?

Bringing up 2008 -- what a great way to just debunk every experts' opinion on this team. Last season was a mix of injury and unforeseen failure. Hermie already pointed out what happened to our staff, and the fact that 2 of our main run producers were injured, Garko fell off the map, Cabrera struggled, Sizemore having a slow second half, and Betancourt stinking it up were surprises to everyone.

I don't see what's wrong with our defense, so you'll have to explain that one to me, and team speed? Really? That is one of the causes of our current record? I thought it had something to do with the enormous amount of strikeouts with RISP or the fact that linedrives seem to be hit right at the opposing fielders. Not to even talk about the pitching so far, which surely won't continue to be this bad.

Like I said, compared to you, a realistic fan seems like motivational speaker. Maybe you should ask if they can up your Prozac dosage.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:14 pm

Seems like you are just itching for a fight here and I am going to pass. You want to misinterpret what I said? Fine.

This team has significant issues that can't be explained by any combination of bad luck. What it DOESN'T appear to have is reserve (either team speed to manufacture runs in the absense of timely hitting or defense which is somewhat suspect previous to this season with essentially the same or similar players in place or reinforcements from the minors).

Can they win this division? Yes, but that can be said at this point for almost every team in every division in baseball so, as an argument, it holds no water In order for your scenario to come about every other team would have to suck. How are the odds of that considering recent history? Not very good.

No, we need to be a 90 win team to even have a chance of winning this division and, right now, I don't see any way in heck of that happening.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:26 pm

dnosco wrote:Seems like you are just itching for a fight here and I am going to pass. You want to misinterpret what I said? Fine.

This team has significant issues that can't be explained by any combination of bad luck. What it DOESN'T appear to have is reserve (either team speed to manufacture runs in the absense of timely hitting or defense which is somewhat suspect previous to this season with essentially the same or similar players in place or reinforcements from the minors).

Can they win this division? Yes, but that can be said at this point for almost every team in every division in baseball so, as an argument, it holds no water In order for your scenario to come about every other team would have to suck. How are the odds of that considering recent history? Not very good.

No, we need to be a 90 win team to even have a chance of winning this division and, right now, I don't see any way in heck of that happening.


This team does have some speed. We've got 3 guys in the starting lineup capable of 20+ steals in Grady, Francisco, and Cabrera. Choo was one of the best in baseball last year going from 1st to 3rd on a single as well. And DeRosa is no slouch either. Then there's the bench with Crowe and previously Barfield. Hafner, Martinez, and Garko are very, very slow though....

Problem is, Wedge doesn't know what speed is or how to use it. And if he would just PLEASE learn to use the bench at all I'd be the happiest person alive. Let's Crowe hit in a key situation in the 6th with BOTH Hafner and Garko on the bench. Makes no sense. PINCH HIT once in a while, good grief Wedge (sorry, it really annoys me).


I disagree a bit about the 90 wins being needed to win the division (though it's very possible)...and even if it's true, this team can easily win 90 games. Now could they lose 90 games? yes....i think they're more likely to win 90 than lose 90 but at this point I wouldn't be on it....
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Re: Dark days!

Postby dnosco » Fri Apr 17, 2009 11:53 am

I don't think our team speed is good but it isn't terrible but, when combined with Wedge's inability to manage small ball, it comes across as being less than it is.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Apr 17, 2009 12:04 pm

dnosco wrote:I don't think our team speed is good but it isn't terrible but, when combined with Wedge's inability to manage small ball, it comes across as being less than it is.


Yeah I don't think we have 'great' speed....but as far as AL teams go, we're probably middle of the pack at least. Other than the Twins, who in the Central really has speed?

White Sox are getting a bit faster with Getz at 2B and Anderson in CF.....but that's about it.
Tigers have Granderson....and...well, a few on the bench I guess, lol.
Royals have Crisp and DeJesus.......Aviles has a bit of speed, but no more than Cabrera or Francisco. Pena has speed from the bench....and Teahen is ok. But really, they don't have much more speed than us.

Not saying just because we're one of the faster teams in the central that we should be content with our speed.....but does show that we're not as bad off as some thing, or as we've been in years past.


And no arguement at all about the last part. I think if every player on this team had Kenny Lofton type speed we'd still only have maybe 100-150 steals as a team and lay down 70 bunts a year......
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Re: Dark days!

Postby JP_Frost » Fri Apr 17, 2009 1:01 pm

why would you want to steal like madmen or lay down bunts? All of these things increase the chance of making outs, which isn't what you want to do. A guy like Sizemore gets to steal alot, because he's actually very good at it, but if you run guys with only a 70% success rate, it actually hurts your offense (alot of articles have been written about this). Obviously, it's nice to have fast guys on your team who can score from second on a single or from first on a double, but it all boils down to baserunning ability and timely hitting.

The sacrifice bunt is such a strange crowd pleaser. There are instances where it can be used, but you basically give up an out. Combine that with the fact that alot of players suck at it, I don't see any reason why this team should bunt more.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Apr 17, 2009 1:15 pm

JP_Frost wrote:why would you want to steal like madmen or lay down bunts? All of these things increase the chance of making outs, which isn't what you want to do. A guy like Sizemore gets to steal alot, because he's actually very good at it, but if you run guys with only a 70% success rate, it actually hurts your offense (alot of articles have been written about this). Obviously, it's nice to have fast guys on your team who can score from second on a single or from first on a double, but it all boils down to baserunning ability and timely hitting.

The sacrifice bunt is such a strange crowd pleaser. There are instances where it can be used, but you basically give up an out. Combine that with the fact that alot of players suck at it, I don't see any reason why this team should bunt more.


ha, not saying steal like 'madmen' but you HAVE to utilize your speed or you're hurting your team.

and in many situations, you should lay down a bunt.

All of these things do increse chances of outs....but also scoring chances when successful. And with how this team has hit with RISP, you NEED to play small ball to score runs.


And I wasn't so much saying we should steal that many bases or lay down that many bunts, just making a point that Wedge has no clue how to use speed or play small ball.....


Like you said, Grady gets a lot of steals cause he's good at it.....but so are Francisco and Cabrera! Each has had seasons of 20+ steals (Francisco NEVER had fewer than 15 in a minor league season, and had 42 in 2002!). Plus now with the addition of Crowe who was like 7 for 7 in spring training.....and this team can steal more or at least find ways to use it, whether hit-n-runs or sac bunts.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Apr 17, 2009 5:16 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:why would you want to steal like madmen or lay down bunts? All of these things increase the chance of making outs, which isn't what you want to do. A guy like Sizemore gets to steal alot, because he's actually very good at it, but if you run guys with only a 70% success rate, it actually hurts your offense (alot of articles have been written about this). Obviously, it's nice to have fast guys on your team who can score from second on a single or from first on a double, but it all boils down to baserunning ability and timely hitting.

The sacrifice bunt is such a strange crowd pleaser. There are instances where it can be used, but you basically give up an out. Combine that with the fact that alot of players suck at it, I don't see any reason why this team should bunt more.


ha, not saying steal like 'madmen' but you HAVE to utilize your speed or you're hurting your team.

and in many situations, you should lay down a bunt.

All of these things do increse chances of outs....but also scoring chances when successful. And with how this team has hit with RISP, you NEED to play small ball to score runs.


And I wasn't so much saying we should steal that many bases or lay down that many bunts, just making a point that Wedge has no clue how to use speed or play small ball.....


Like you said, Grady gets a lot of steals cause he's good at it.....but so are Francisco and Cabrera! Each has had seasons of 20+ steals (Francisco NEVER had fewer than 15 in a minor league season, and had 42 in 2002!). Plus now with the addition of Crowe who was like 7 for 7 in spring training.....and this team can steal more or at least find ways to use it, whether hit-n-runs or sac bunts.

What are you thinking, Hermie? This is the majors, not the minors. Neither Cabrera or Francisco is a base stealer and quoting obsolete base stealing stats from the minors won't make them one. You need to recognize that catchers and ML pitchers do a far better job of containing the running game than in the minors. Quoting A-ball stats from seven years ago does not make Francisco a base stealing threat now. The Indians have one of the slowest lineups in baseball. The only big time threat in the organization is probably Brantley. Barfield is OK but I don't think I would bet my whole wad on Crowe's success at the ML level.
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Re: Dark days!

Postby jellis » Sat Apr 18, 2009 2:06 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:why would you want to steal like madmen or lay down bunts? All of these things increase the chance of making outs, which isn't what you want to do. A guy like Sizemore gets to steal alot, because he's actually very good at it, but if you run guys with only a 70% success rate, it actually hurts your offense (alot of articles have been written about this). Obviously, it's nice to have fast guys on your team who can score from second on a single or from first on a double, but it all boils down to baserunning ability and timely hitting.

The sacrifice bunt is such a strange crowd pleaser. There are instances where it can be used, but you basically give up an out. Combine that with the fact that alot of players suck at it, I don't see any reason why this team should bunt more.


ha, not saying steal like 'madmen' but you HAVE to utilize your speed or you're hurting your team.

and in many situations, you should lay down a bunt.

All of these things do increse chances of outs....but also scoring chances when successful. And with how this team has hit with RISP, you NEED to play small ball to score runs.


And I wasn't so much saying we should steal that many bases or lay down that many bunts, just making a point that Wedge has no clue how to use speed or play small ball.....


Like you said, Grady gets a lot of steals cause he's good at it.....but so are Francisco and Cabrera! Each has had seasons of 20+ steals (Francisco NEVER had fewer than 15 in a minor league season, and had 42 in 2002!). Plus now with the addition of Crowe who was like 7 for 7 in spring training.....and this team can steal more or at least find ways to use it, whether hit-n-runs or sac bunts.

What are you thinking, Hermie? This is the majors, not the minors. Neither Cabrera or Francisco is a base stealer and quoting obsolete base stealing stats from the minors won't make them one. You need to recognize that catchers and ML pitchers do a far better job of containing the running game than in the minors. Quoting A-ball stats from seven years ago does not make Francisco a base stealing threat now. The Indians have one of the slowest lineups in baseball. The only big time threat in the organization is probably Brantley. Barfield is OK but I don't think I would bet my whole wad on Crowe's success at the ML level.


I got to agree with ink especially on asdrubal, who is not a base stealing threat at all, he had good numbers in the minors but scouts universally said it would not translate and it has not 6 SB 4 CS in 640 PA. Same deal with Francisco who has 5 SB and 5 CS in 600 PA. They are not base stealers only crowe and sizemore are on this roster
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Apr 20, 2009 9:36 am

indianinkslinger wrote:What are you thinking, Hermie? This is the majors, not the minors. Neither Cabrera or Francisco is a base stealer and quoting obsolete base stealing stats from the minors won't make them one. You need to recognize that catchers and ML pitchers do a far better job of containing the running game than in the minors. Quoting A-ball stats from seven years ago does not make Francisco a base stealing threat now. The Indians have one of the slowest lineups in baseball. The only big time threat in the organization is probably Brantley. Barfield is OK but I don't think I would bet my whole wad on Crowe's success at the ML level.


You are right....and WRONG. Yes it's the majors, but both francisco and Cabrera have the speed to be 20 SB guys in the league. It takes a bit of time to get the feel for stealing on ML pitchers and catchers. Heck, many of the catchers in ML baseball have WORSE arms than minor league guys. Teams are putting more of a premium on hitting at the catcher position and less on fundamentals back there. And many pitchers now-a-days don't know the meaning of holding runners on base.

Francisco himself this spring expressed a bit of frustration and vowed to do a better job running and getting steals. Cabrera already has 2 SBs this year (tied for team lead) and we're not even out of April yet. And Francisco had 20 steals at AAA.....not just A-ball.....

Take Omar Vizquel for example.....wasn't the fastest guy on the diamond and didn't steal a lot of bases in his early years (had ONE his rookie year and caught 4 times, and didn't have double digit steals till his 4 ML season)....but once he got a feel for pitchers and reading them, he became a legit 30 SB guy. I can see Cabrera doing that (maybe not 30, but 20 at least). Not sure Francisco will ever get on base enough to get 20 steals....but definitely has the speed and ability to steal that many.

Will they (along with Barfield and Crowe) learn to read pitchers and get good jumps at the ML level? Possibly not....but I think they will. Cabrera is already showing signs of it now in his 3rd stint at the big leauge level. Francisco is 1 for 1 so far as well (would like to see him run a bit more).
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Re: Dark days!

Postby jellis » Mon Apr 20, 2009 6:11 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:What are you thinking, Hermie? This is the majors, not the minors. Neither Cabrera or Francisco is a base stealer and quoting obsolete base stealing stats from the minors won't make them one. You need to recognize that catchers and ML pitchers do a far better job of containing the running game than in the minors. Quoting A-ball stats from seven years ago does not make Francisco a base stealing threat now. The Indians have one of the slowest lineups in baseball. The only big time threat in the organization is probably Brantley. Barfield is OK but I don't think I would bet my whole wad on Crowe's success at the ML level.


You are right....and WRONG. Yes it's the majors, but both francisco and Cabrera have the speed to be 20 SB guys in the league. It takes a bit of time to get the feel for stealing on ML pitchers and catchers. Heck, many of the catchers in ML baseball have WORSE arms than minor league guys. Teams are putting more of a premium on hitting at the catcher position and less on fundamentals back there. And many pitchers now-a-days don't know the meaning of holding runners on base.

Francisco himself this spring expressed a bit of frustration and vowed to do a better job running and getting steals. Cabrera already has 2 SBs this year (tied for team lead) and we're not even out of April yet. And Francisco had 20 steals at AAA.....not just A-ball.....

Take Omar Vizquel for example.....wasn't the fastest guy on the diamond and didn't steal a lot of bases in his early years (had ONE his rookie year and caught 4 times, and didn't have double digit steals till his 4 ML season)....but once he got a feel for pitchers and reading them, he became a legit 30 SB guy. I can see Cabrera doing that (maybe not 30, but 20 at least). Not sure Francisco will ever get on base enough to get 20 steals....but definitely has the speed and ability to steal that many.

Will they (along with Barfield and Crowe) learn to read pitchers and get good jumps at the ML level? Possibly not....but I think they will. Cabrera is already showing signs of it now in his 3rd stint at the big leauge level. Francisco is 1 for 1 so far as well (would like to see him run a bit more).


every scouting I ever read on them said they were minor league basesstealers which is very common, its a skill that you can do well in the minors and not translate typically people with 15-20 in the minors just dont see it translate
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Re: Dark days!

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Apr 21, 2009 9:31 am

jellis wrote:every scouting I ever read on them said they were minor league basesstealers which is very common, its a skill that you can do well in the minors and not translate typically people with 15-20 in the minors just dont see it translate


But Francisco was a 20-30 SB guy (only twice did he not steal 20 bases)......he's underrated in the speed department. And as I showed, Omar who was a 15-30 SB guy learned how to get jumps and went from a 1-5 SB guy early in his career to a 40 SB guy with Cleveland!


Cabrera also came into camp in much better shape this year and as I recall dropped some weight too. I wouldn't sleep on him getting 20 SB this year provided Wedge doesn't get any more consdervative than he already is.
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