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Payroll and Wins

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Payroll and Wins

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:24 am

I found this article very interesting and thought I would pass it on to the site.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... payrol.php

Two things struck me as standing out from the rest of the information. First, money is a big benefit. The highest seasonal average wins are dominated by high payroll teams. Second, intelligent small market teams, which includes the Indians, dominate the wins per payroll dollar.

An additional analysis would be interesting to compare the correlation of attendance revenues to wins and payroll. I imagine the Tribe would top the list here.

Before I reach any monumental conclusions, I am going the ponder the significance of this information to the Indians' future. :s_dunno
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Re: Payroll and Wins

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Mar 05, 2009 12:12 pm

Yeah good find.

Minnesota does do a good job of maximizing talent for their payroll as does the Tribe.


I'm interested in seeing when (and at how much) the Tribe's payroll will top out at. I believe it was with you inklinger (but I could be mistake, apolgize if I am), that we discussed what the Tribe's payroll would be at this year. And not trying to be a jerk here, think it just kinda goes along with this article some.

It was at $79M (or around there) last year before dropping down to around $75M after the CC and Byrd trades. You (or the other person) said the payroll would remain right around that figure....I said that it would continue to go up as it has since 2003 when it was down in the $30M range.

By last count, the Tribe's payroll is around $81M and with incentives to Pavano, could go over $85M (which is what I said I thought the Tribe could still do even in this economy).

How much higher will Dolan and company be willing to take the payroll? Could we see $90M soon? gasp...$100M?

There's a bunch of pay raises still to come for guys like Peralta, Martinez, Sizemore, Hafner, and Carmona. There is some money that comes off the books.....but the Tribe has been steadily increasing the payroll.

I'm not naive enough to think it'll forever keep going up. At some point it'll peak as it did with the teams of the 90s.....but when and where?


The article you gave does show that you don't have to be a crazy spender, just a smart spender......but almost every World Series winner this millinium was spending $100 or close to it......

And it's obvious money doesn't guruantee you anything.....but it sure does help out.....

Something to ponder indeed.....
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Re: Payroll and Wins

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:16 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Yeah good find.

Minnesota does do a good job of maximizing talent for their payroll as does the Tribe.


I'm interested in seeing when (and at how much) the Tribe's payroll will top out at. I believe it was with you inklinger (but I could be mistake, apolgize if I am), that we discussed what the Tribe's payroll would be at this year. And not trying to be a jerk here, think it just kinda goes along with this article some.

It was at $79M (or around there) last year before dropping down to around $75M after the CC and Byrd trades. You (or the other person) said the payroll would remain right around that figure....I said that it would continue to go up as it has since 2003 when it was down in the $30M range.

By last count, the Tribe's payroll is around $81M and with incentives to Pavano, could go over $85M (which is what I said I thought the Tribe could still do even in this economy).

How much higher will Dolan and company be willing to take the payroll? Could we see $90M soon? gasp...$100M?

There's a bunch of pay raises still to come for guys like Peralta, Martinez, Sizemore, Hafner, and Carmona. There is some money that comes off the books.....but the Tribe has been steadily increasing the payroll.

I'm not naive enough to think it'll forever keep going up. At some point it'll peak as it did with the teams of the 90s.....but when and where?


The article you gave does show that you don't have to be a crazy spender, just a smart spender......but almost every World Series winner this millinium was spending $100 or close to it......

And it's obvious money doesn't guruantee you anything.....but it sure does help out.....

Something to ponder indeed.....

I am not sure it was me that argued a whole lot about this since my attendance speculation is just that. The payroll this year should be $80 +/- 2. Not a whole lot different than last year. My personal opinion is, in the absence of an outside factor, that this will be the high water mark for Indians payroll. In order for payroll to jump, I believe the Indians will have to exceed 2,500,000 (30,000 per game) and have pricing closer to the ML average. Attendance will improve if the Indians make the playoffs but I consider the high side of attendance to be 2.2-2.3 million. Unless the Indians have a spectacular year from beginning to end, I think the Indians will have a difficult time reaching 2M based on the current ticket sales and the economic/population issues in Cleveland/No. Ohio. This is just my opinion. However, this was the subject of my doctoral thesis (micro-static variables influenced by outside cyclical determinants) and I occasionally do seminars on the subject when the medics let me, which isn't often any more. Good thing killing commies interfered with that career, huh! I want to reiterate that this is just a guess based on the factors that I see. FWIW, I think Dolan is getting different advice and is likely to be superior to mine. For instance, I never would have extended the stadium lease or had virtually the entire minor league system in northern/central Ohio. And, to be clear, I am very happy they did both, especially as a rabid, long time fan.

If it were me, instead of Dolan, I would be managing the Indians attrition very carefully in 2009/10. Look real closely at the payroll projections on the front page. Several of the higher payroll figures may well be FAs or trades by the beginning of the 2011 season and replaced by organization prospects. I would look to keep payroll in the neighborhood of $70-75M in the near years unless there is some improvement in the numbers I see. And I don't see this as the end of the franchise or its ability to compete. :s_thumbsup
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Re: Payroll and Wins

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 09, 2009 8:28 am

indianinkslinger wrote:I am not sure it was me that argued a whole lot about this since my attendance speculation is just that. The payroll this year should be $80 +/- 2. Not a whole lot different than last year. My personal opinion is, in the absence of an outside factor, that this will be the high water mark for Indians payroll. In order for payroll to jump, I believe the Indians will have to exceed 2,500,000 (30,000 per game) and have pricing closer to the ML average. Attendance will improve if the Indians make the playoffs but I consider the high side of attendance to be 2.2-2.3 million. Unless the Indians have a spectacular year from beginning to end, I think the Indians will have a difficult time reaching 2M based on the current ticket sales and the economic/population issues in Cleveland/No. Ohio. This is just my opinion. However, this was the subject of my doctoral thesis (micro-static variables influenced by outside cyclical determinants) and I occasionally do seminars on the subject when the medics let me, which isn't often any more. Good thing killing commies interfered with that career, huh! I want to reiterate that this is just a guess based on the factors that I see. FWIW, I think Dolan is getting different advice and is likely to be superior to mine. For instance, I never would have extended the stadium lease or had virtually the entire minor league system in northern/central Ohio. And, to be clear, I am very happy they did both, especially as a rabid, long time fan.

If it were me, instead of Dolan, I would be managing the Indians attrition very carefully in 2009/10. Look real closely at the payroll projections on the front page. Several of the higher payroll figures may well be FAs or trades by the beginning of the 2011 season and replaced by organization prospects. I would look to keep payroll in the neighborhood of $70-75M in the near years unless there is some improvement in the numbers I see. And I don't see this as the end of the franchise or its ability to compete. :s_thumbsup


Well if like I said, if Pavano reaches his incentives the payroll will be over $85M.


A lot of people like giving Dolan grief for not spending....but he's been pretty smart with how he's spent. Attendance likely won't be great this year....but still expect it to be better than last year if they can win the division. There's other factors other than attendance that will affect the payroll too. The money from STO is starting to come in. One things Dolan knows is TV (how he made much of his fortune). He started up STO not for the fans really, but as a way to get more money for the Tribe (and himself in the process).

I think we can see a $90M payroll here soon......now $100M? Not holding my breath on that one, lol
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Re: Payroll and Wins

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Mar 10, 2009 5:42 am

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:I am not sure it was me that argued a whole lot about this since my attendance speculation is just that. The payroll this year should be $80 +/- 2. Not a whole lot different than last year. My personal opinion is, in the absence of an outside factor, that this will be the high water mark for Indians payroll. In order for payroll to jump, I believe the Indians will have to exceed 2,500,000 (30,000 per game) and have pricing closer to the ML average. Attendance will improve if the Indians make the playoffs but I consider the high side of attendance to be 2.2-2.3 million. Unless the Indians have a spectacular year from beginning to end, I think the Indians will have a difficult time reaching 2M based on the current ticket sales and the economic/population issues in Cleveland/No. Ohio. This is just my opinion. However, this was the subject of my doctoral thesis (micro-static variables influenced by outside cyclical determinants) and I occasionally do seminars on the subject when the medics let me, which isn't often any more. Good thing killing commies interfered with that career, huh! I want to reiterate that this is just a guess based on the factors that I see. FWIW, I think Dolan is getting different advice and is likely to be superior to mine. For instance, I never would have extended the stadium lease or had virtually the entire minor league system in northern/central Ohio. And, to be clear, I am very happy they did both, especially as a rabid, long time fan.

If it were me, instead of Dolan, I would be managing the Indians attrition very carefully in 2009/10. Look real closely at the payroll projections on the front page. Several of the higher payroll figures may well be FAs or trades by the beginning of the 2011 season and replaced by organization prospects. I would look to keep payroll in the neighborhood of $70-75M in the near years unless there is some improvement in the numbers I see. And I don't see this as the end of the franchise or its ability to compete. :s_thumbsup


Well if like I said, if Pavano reaches his incentives the payroll will be over $85M.


A lot of people like giving Dolan grief for not spending....but he's been pretty smart with how he's spent. Attendance likely won't be great this year....but still expect it to be better than last year if they can win the division. There's other factors other than attendance that will affect the payroll too. The money from STO is starting to come in. One things Dolan knows is TV (how he made much of his fortune). He started up STO not for the fans really, but as a way to get more money for the Tribe (and himself in the process).

I think we can see a $90M payroll here soon......now $100M? Not holding my breath on that one, lol

I just read this rather interesting quote on Gammons blog regarding attendance. Cleveland is mentioned specifically.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/ind ... mons_peter

One note about STO and its ability to fund the Tribe. Current viewing statistics show that the yankee network has over 10 times as many viewers in the Borough of Manhattan as STO has altogether.
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Re: Payroll and Wins

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Mar 10, 2009 8:37 am

indianinkslinger wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:I am not sure it was me that argued a whole lot about this since my attendance speculation is just that. The payroll this year should be $80 +/- 2. Not a whole lot different than last year. My personal opinion is, in the absence of an outside factor, that this will be the high water mark for Indians payroll. In order for payroll to jump, I believe the Indians will have to exceed 2,500,000 (30,000 per game) and have pricing closer to the ML average. Attendance will improve if the Indians make the playoffs but I consider the high side of attendance to be 2.2-2.3 million. Unless the Indians have a spectacular year from beginning to end, I think the Indians will have a difficult time reaching 2M based on the current ticket sales and the economic/population issues in Cleveland/No. Ohio. This is just my opinion. However, this was the subject of my doctoral thesis (micro-static variables influenced by outside cyclical determinants) and I occasionally do seminars on the subject when the medics let me, which isn't often any more. Good thing killing commies interfered with that career, huh! I want to reiterate that this is just a guess based on the factors that I see. FWIW, I think Dolan is getting different advice and is likely to be superior to mine. For instance, I never would have extended the stadium lease or had virtually the entire minor league system in northern/central Ohio. And, to be clear, I am very happy they did both, especially as a rabid, long time fan.

If it were me, instead of Dolan, I would be managing the Indians attrition very carefully in 2009/10. Look real closely at the payroll projections on the front page. Several of the higher payroll figures may well be FAs or trades by the beginning of the 2011 season and replaced by organization prospects. I would look to keep payroll in the neighborhood of $70-75M in the near years unless there is some improvement in the numbers I see. And I don't see this as the end of the franchise or its ability to compete. :s_thumbsup


Well if like I said, if Pavano reaches his incentives the payroll will be over $85M.


A lot of people like giving Dolan grief for not spending....but he's been pretty smart with how he's spent. Attendance likely won't be great this year....but still expect it to be better than last year if they can win the division. There's other factors other than attendance that will affect the payroll too. The money from STO is starting to come in. One things Dolan knows is TV (how he made much of his fortune). He started up STO not for the fans really, but as a way to get more money for the Tribe (and himself in the process).

I think we can see a $90M payroll here soon......now $100M? Not holding my breath on that one, lol

I just read this rather interesting quote on Gammons blog regarding attendance. Cleveland is mentioned specifically.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/ind ... mons_peter

One note about STO and its ability to fund the Tribe. Current viewing statistics show that the yankee network has over 10 times as many viewers in the [b]Borough of Manhattan as STO has altogether[/b].


Don't get me wrong, not trying to compare STO to the YES Network in terms of money, just in concept. I think it can be strong enough a money producer to keep the Tribe around $80-90M (obviously a far cry from the Yanks near $200M though)......but we'll see....
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