RSS Twitter Facebook YouTube
Expand Menu

2009 and beyond-what might happen

Talk about the Cleveland Indians, Major League Baseball, and other sports.

2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:13 pm

Spring training has started and we have a pretty good idea of what the Indians will look like. Even with the high number of FAs, we have a pretty good idea of the competition. IMO, the Tribe will start the year with a team that is somewhere between the 4th best and 8th best team in the AL. It is more likely they could be worse rather than better. How the Indians perform will effect the longevity of a number of players with the Indians in 2009 and beyond.

The salary chart gives us the first line of players on the 2009 bubble. This includes Jamey Carroll, David Dellucci, Mark DeRosa and Carl Pavano. I think team performance directly effects their future. Only DeRosa is likely to be offered arbitration if he completes the season with Cleveland. These would be the first players traded or released if the season goes badly. We can add some other players to the list. Four have team options for 2010. Victor and Cliff appear likely to have options picked up but I don't think the same applies to Raffy R and Kobe in any event. The Indians have better use for $8M so I expect both to be traded or released during or after the season.

Now, let's look at under performing positions. Four starting positions underperformed the league offensive average. They are 1B, 2B, LF and DH. Those positions are expected to be manned by Garko (PT), Cabrera, Francisco (PT) and Pronk. The two players most likely to be given a performance pass are Pronk, by virtue of his contract, and Cabrera, because of his defense. If we take a good look at the Columbus roster, I think it is likely the other two will not only have to perform at league average but probably above since neither is stellar defensively in order to keep starting throughout 2009.

I have not addressed what I expect to happen with the pitching except as stated above. The team could be moving pitchers in and out of the rotation all season. The same could be happening in the relief pitching, especially in the 2nd half. This is the depth of the Indians coming to the forefront. Only two teams among the 8 best teams have the wherewithal of the Indians to improve or stay the same with internal replacement players. The Yankees can buy anyone they want. The Red Sox and Angels have pretty deep pockets as well and are not reliant on system players.

All of this makes for a pretty interesting season IMO. :s_thumbsup
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:48 pm

Have you taken a look at the players on the Rule 5 listing in Tony's book??

The players we might need to fill any holes are either right around the corner or enroute. If Shapiro can avoid the temptation to make bad trades (no, I'm not saying DeRosa was a bad trade, I just haven't decided yet), the Tribe should be contending for years to come.
MadThinker88
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1746
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:48 am
Location: Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:27 am

MadThinker88 wrote:Have you taken a look at the players on the Rule 5 listing in Tony's book??

The players we might need to fill any holes are either right around the corner or enroute. If Shapiro can avoid the temptation to make bad trades (no, I'm not saying DeRosa was a bad trade, I just haven't decided yet), the Tribe should be contending for years to come.

Yes I am familiar with the rule 5 players but I rarely get excited about the list. Anyone we lose will be meaningless just like every year.

I agree on the organizational depth. On the whole, Shapiro has done pretty well with his trades, De Rosa included. He is not a "freaking idiot" as some have suggested nor is he perfect. He has limitations that some other franchises do not. When you look at the long term, remember that we will be unlikely to re-sign any of our valuable players approaching FA in the coming years IMO.
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby petes999 » Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:59 am

I would normally agree that a Rule 5 draftee is inconsequential loss ... yet next year could be different depending on who is traded and exposed. Yet, we also said that this year ...

Our FA players (6 or so)
DeRosa
Pavano
Bentancourt (if option not exercised)
Kobi
Delluci
Carroll

Significant Rule 5 (8 or much more)
Huff
DeLaCruz
Rondon
Brantley
Laporta
Hodges
Rivero
Weglarz

And ... Gomez, Tomlin, Rodriquez, McBride ....

I wouldn't say a loss of 2 or more Top 10 talent as meaningless ...

However, to your point, we will have a series of players who can be released if and when they don't pan out this year
Barfield
Marte
Mujica
Rundles
Jackson
petes999
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 559
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 6:02 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Feb 18, 2009 7:55 am

petes999 wrote:I would normally agree that a Rule 5 draftee is inconsequential loss ... yet next year could be different depending on who is traded and exposed. Yet, we also said that this year ...

Our FA players (6 or so)
DeRosa
Pavano
Bentancourt (if option not exercised)
Kobi
Delluci
Carroll

Significant Rule 5 (8 or much more)
Huff
DeLaCruz
Rondon
Brantley
Laporta
Hodges
Rivero
Weglarz

And ... Gomez, Tomlin, Rodriquez, McBride ....

I wouldn't say a loss of 2 or more Top 10 talent as meaningless ...

However, to your point, we will have a series of players who can be released if and when they don't pan out this year
Barfield
Marte
Mujica
Rundles
Jackson

Your point is well taken. Maybe I am a bit casual about potential rule 5 losses given the depth of our system but if your top 8 have all made the 40, I think your last list might include Gark and Benny to be released or traded. Although I expect LaPorta to play in Cleveland this year and make the point moot, I do not think he is eligible in 2009. I think Rondon is already on the 40 so would not be part of the list. But you are right that there is a lot of players to protect.
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Feb 18, 2009 9:33 am

petes999 wrote:I would normally agree that a Rule 5 draftee is inconsequential loss ... yet next year could be different depending on who is traded and exposed. Yet, we also said that this year ...

Our FA players (6 or so)
DeRosa
Pavano
Bentancourt (if option not exercised)
Kobi
Delluci
Carroll

Significant Rule 5 (8 or much more)
Huff
DeLaCruz
Rondon
Brantley
Laporta
Hodges
Rivero
Weglarz

And ... Gomez, Tomlin, Rodriquez, McBride ....

I wouldn't say a loss of 2 or more Top 10 talent as meaningless ...

However, to your point, we will have a series of players who can be released if and when they don't pan out this year
Barfield
Marte
Mujica
Rundles
Jackson


Rondon is already on the 40-man roster and was Rule-5 eligible this year.....not sure why he's on the list.

Huff, LaPorta, and Brantley are likely to be added during the season. Leaving about 5-7 guys of any significance that will be Rule 5 eligible....same as this past year. Tribe will get the the ones that they need on the roster.



I don't think Betancourt will necessarily be 'released' at the end of the year....though I do totally agree that his option won't be picked up. I could see the Tribe offering him arbitration and trying to work out another deal with him. Will likely depend if he's a type A (like Cruz) or not. I Kobayashi 'could' see his option picked up....but he'd to have a much better year this year......this you'll see him gone though like you said.


I'd rank the Tribe the 4th best team in the AL right now....though 3rd best when you consider that the other 3 teams are in the AL East and can't all make hte playoffs. Even with the addition of Abreu, I think we're a better overall team than the Angels. They still have lots of holes in that offense and their rotation may be thinner than ours right now.

Unless the Twins or Sox make a move soon...I'm not too worried about them.....though I probably should be I guess....
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby MadThinker88 » Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:53 pm

First off, a thank you to Pete for picking up my banner as I was away.

Yes, LaPorta might be getting a shot in the majors this season and if he is ready and deserves the chance I am all for it. However, I do not think I would make him a September call up just to do. As Pete listed out there are a ton of players that will need to be considered for protection after the season. I wouldn't want to eliminate a spot on the roster if I didn't need to.
MadThinker88
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1746
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:48 am
Location: Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:05 pm

MadThinker88 wrote:First off, a thank you to Pete for picking up my banner as I was away.

Yes, LaPorta might be getting a shot in the majors this season and if he is ready and deserves the chance I am all for it. However, I do not think I would make him a September call up just to do. As Pete listed out there are a ton of players that will need to be considered for protection after the season. I wouldn't want to eliminate a spot on the roster if I didn't need to.


I agree with that.....but I think we'll see him before the month of June is over.....I have no faith in Francisco......


And don't forget, the Tribe may very well have THREE open 40-man roster spots on opening day of this year. Westbrook will be put on the 60-day DL opening a spot. Marte may be cut if he doesn't beat out the favored Barfield for the last bench spot. And Mujica may be gone if he doesn't win the last bullpen spot.

Tribe may not fill any of those to start the year.....but you can bet someone will be brought up and added pretty quickly. Maybe a NRI guy like one of the bullpen guys gets one (such as Chulk)....or Huff getting the 5th rotation spot......or possibly LaPorta should Francisco struggle.

Suppose there's also a chance Hodges or Brantley would get bump up first.....but my money would be on LaPorta....
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:40 pm

Hermie13 wrote:And don't forget, the Tribe may very well have THREE open 40-man roster spots on opening day of this year. Westbrook will be put on the 60-day DL opening a spot. Marte may be cut if he doesn't beat out the favored Barfield for the last bench spot. And Mujica may be gone if he doesn't win the last bullpen spot.


Both Marte and Mujica will definately be removed from the 40-man if they don't make the team.

As they are both out of options they would have to clear waivers anyway to send them to AAA, so the Indians will definately DFA them.


PS.... If that's what you meant, then sorry for the repeat.... I just didn't read what you wrote as meaning that.
dazindiansfanuk
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1854
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2008 12:51 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:42 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:Both Marte and Mujica will definately be removed from the 40-man if they don't make the team.

As they are both out of options they would have to clear waivers anyway to send them to AAA, so the Indians will definately DFA them.


PS.... If that's what you meant, then sorry for the repeat.... I just didn't read what you wrote as meaning that.


Yes that's what I meant....that's why I said the Tribe would have THREE open roster spots for the 40-man. 2 being from those two, and the 3rd being from Westbrook going to the 60-day DL (which takes him off the 40-man roster til he's healthy).
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby MadThinker88 » Wed Feb 18, 2009 7:38 pm

Just to toss this out there: I still see one of the current 5 catchers on the 40 man being moved before the end of spring training.

Additionally, if McBride shows he is still able to swing the bat this season and isn't a complete disaster behind the plate, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 of the current group of 5 are dealt and McBride gets added to the 40 man this fall.
MadThinker88
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1746
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:48 am
Location: Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:53 am

On pete's list of four under And, I think Gomez profiles as the most likely candidate to be selected in Rule 5. McBride as a Catcher might be selected but I just do not see it as an OF. Tomlin does not profile as a Rule 5 and Rodriguez has a ways to go.
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:50 am

MadThinker88 wrote:Just to toss this out there: I still see one of the current 5 catchers on the 40 man being moved before the end of spring training.

Additionally, if McBride shows he is still able to swing the bat this season and isn't a complete disaster behind the plate, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 of the current group of 5 are dealt and McBride gets added to the 40 man this fall.


eh, I don't think by the end of spring training necessarily....but I'd be a bit shocked if all 5 are still there next fall. I could see the Tribe making a decent mid-season trade and using a catcher to do it. With Martinez appearing more and more like he may be headed to 1B...and Gimenez being thrust into a utility role.....there's only 3 full-time catchers at the moment.....and 1 (Santana) may very well see some time at other spots too.

I would be shocked too if all 3 of Garko, Martinez, and Shoppach are with this team next Christmas......
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:52 am

indianinkslinger wrote:On pete's list of four under And, I think Gomez profiles as the most likely candidate to be selected in Rule 5. McBride as a Catcher might be selected but I just do not see it as an OF. Tomlin does not profile as a Rule 5 and Rodriguez has a ways to go.


I disagree a bit. I think Rodriguez is a great Rule 5 candidate. Obviously it depends on this year and how he does.....but some people think he only profiles as a utility infielder at the ML level. Can play SS and 2B and has some pop and speed. A team like the Orioles could easily take him and stash him on their bench giving him starts here and there for a whole year, then the following year letting him play it out at AAA.

Of course a lot can happen between now and December.....
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:03 am

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:On pete's list of four under And, I think Gomez profiles as the most likely candidate to be selected in Rule 5. McBride as a Catcher might be selected but I just do not see it as an OF. Tomlin does not profile as a Rule 5 and Rodriguez has a ways to go.


I disagree a bit. I think Rodriguez is a great Rule 5 candidate. Obviously it depends on this year and how he does.....but some people think he only profiles as a utility infielder at the ML level. Can play SS and 2B and has some pop and speed. A team like the Orioles could easily take him and stash him on their bench giving him starts here and there for a whole year, then the following year letting him play it out at AAA.

Of course a lot can happen between now and December.....

His pitch recognition is going to have to improve a great deal before I lose a lot of sleep over that.
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:40 am

indianinkslinger wrote:His pitch recognition is going to have to improve a great deal before I lose a lot of sleep over that.


Never said I thought he'd be a huge loss (though I'd rather not lose him). Just that he would be a decent Rule 5 pick for some teams thanks to his position and versatility on the infield (played SS and 2B last year and played 3B in college...was an All-American in fact).

Did have a 20-20 season in 2007 and still walks a lot (though K's a lot too).

He's a bit old to be repeating AA.....but I could see him turning into a Barfield type player but with way more walks.....now you can argue whether losing someone like that hurts at all.......
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby MadThinker88 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 7:33 pm

I think Josh repeats AA this year due to the addition of Valbuena playing 2B in Columbus.
Josh mainly played SS until the 2nd half of last season in Akron. Getting him more time to play 2nd, and turning the pivot makes a lot of sense. I think he would have been moved to Cbus prior to the addition.
MadThinker88
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1746
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:48 am
Location: Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:21 pm

Don't get me wrong! I like JRod a bunch when it comes to projection. Spectacular defense even if not always good. Fast bat although a bit long. Just does not recognize pitches that well. Honestly, I thought he had better power projection than Hodges even though he would be less consistent offensively. I don't share MT88's thoughts about Columbus. The tribe had already picked up MI backups for Columbus and I think AAA pitching would have eaten him alive. Just an opinion.
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby MadThinker88 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:33 pm

Maybe the pitching would have destroyed Josh, maybe not. Personally, I would like to have that question answered before I have to decide to protect a player or not.

As for pitch recognition, seeing that Josh walked 77 times, I think his recognition is better then many.
MadThinker88
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1746
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:48 am
Location: Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:43 pm

MadThinker88 wrote:Maybe the pitching would have destroyed Josh, maybe not. Personally, I would like to have that question answered before I have to decide to protect a player or not.

As for pitch recognition, seeing that Josh walked 77 times, I think his recognition is better then many.

Many people think that judging a pitch in the strike zone is a different ability than correctly judging the type of pitch and hitting it. I am not sure I could judge his pitch recognition solely from his walks when that is but one part of his offensive performance. You know that he is still completely unblocked at Columbus so that may happen if his performance warrants it. It is just an educated guess that Tony is applying to his list so JRod may still be in Columbus.
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: 2009 and beyond-what might happen

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:04 am

There is little to no chance Rodriguez 'starts' the year in Columubus. Crowe started 3 straight seasons at Akron because of offensive struggles. Rodriguez struggled a LOT last year with the bat and will start there too. Now, if he is hitting well I'm sure the Tribe won't hesistate to bump him up to AAA.

Even before the Valbuena pickup he was definitely gonna start in AA. Either barfield would have been giving the spot at AAA or a guy like Graffinino would have. Tribe doesn't rush hitters if they aren't hitting. Remember the Tribe DE-moted AC to AA in 2007 after he struggled in AAA the year a before. However, after regaining his confidence and stroke he eventually moved all the up to the MLs.

Don't think you'll see that big a jump from Rodriguez though.....
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH


Return to Beyond The Minors

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron