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PECOTA predictions are in....

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PECOTA predictions are in....

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Feb 11, 2009 3:48 pm

Baseball Prospectus has their PECOTA predictions in for the 2009 season.......and have the Indians winning the AL Central; however, with only 84 wins.

Other 'predicted' winners are: Yankees, A's (with only 82 wins), Sox (WC), Mets, Cubs, D'Backs, Phils/Braves (WC-tie)....and the Rays missing out with 92 wins.

Obviously it's early....but PECOTA did predict the Rays to have 88 wins last year around this time (when most others thought it nuts).....


Though there are a lot more big names still unsigned right now (Manny could totally change the NL West outcome either in favor of the Giants or Dogers, depending on who he signs with).
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Re: PECOTA predictions are in....

Postby GhostofTedCox » Wed Feb 11, 2009 4:06 pm

I think BP does a good job. But I don't think 82-84 wins will win any division. As far a predictions on the Tribe go, first let's see Hafner swing in spring training. Then we can make an educated guess.
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Re: PECOTA predictions are in....

Postby petes999 » Wed Feb 11, 2009 4:17 pm

Understand how projections work. They take 500 projections and average them. Some projections have use win 70, 80, 90 and maybe 100. 84 won't win it. Yet it is our average win total.
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Re: PECOTA predictions are in....

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Feb 11, 2009 4:17 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:I think BP does a good job. But I don't think 82-84 wins will win any division. As far a predictions on the Tribe go, first let's see Hafner swing in spring training. Then we can make an educated guess.


84 won the NL West last year......82 has won divisions before......Tribe only won 87 in 1997 when they nearly won the World Series......and only 88 wins was needed to 'win' the AL Central last year after 162 games (89 after the 1-game playoff).


We're in a VERY weak division as things stand now......84 games wouldn't shock me at all if it won this division.....though I do think the Tribe will win more. The have low predictions for Hafner and Martinez right now. If Hafner is playing anywhere close to his 2007 self (at least), he'll beat the BP predictions. 84 wins was kind of a low-ball number from PECOTA.
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Re: PECOTA predictions are in....

Postby jellis » Wed Feb 11, 2009 6:47 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
GhostofTedCox wrote:I think BP does a good job. But I don't think 82-84 wins will win any division. As far a predictions on the Tribe go, first let's see Hafner swing in spring training. Then we can make an educated guess.


84 won the NL West last year......82 has won divisions before......Tribe only won 87 in 1997 when they nearly won the World Series......and only 88 wins was needed to 'win' the AL Central last year after 162 games (89 after the 1-game playoff).


We're in a VERY weak division as things stand now......84 games wouldn't shock me at all if it won this division.....though I do think the Tribe will win more. The have low predictions for Hafner and Martinez right now. If Hafner is playing anywhere close to his 2007 self (at least), he'll beat the BP predictions. 84 wins was kind of a low-ball number from PECOTA.


will try and post it latter also had an interesting projection on miller, which seemed kind of crap
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Re: PECOTA predictions are in....

Postby cardiackidz » Wed Feb 11, 2009 8:23 pm

i agree with the ghostoftedcox lets wait to see how pronk looks like in a couple of weeks
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Re: PECOTA predictions are in....

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:13 am

jellis wrote:will try and post it latter also had an interesting projection on miller, which seemed kind of crap


Yeah that projection seemed way off. 5.22 ERA I believe it was.....but more importantly they projected 81 innings or somthing like that......NO WAY he gets that many innings in the MLs this year as a reliever. Unless the Tribe decides mid-season to switch him to a starter....but I think that's doubtful.

My guess is they leave him in the pen for the whole year and if he proves he's healthy they send him to either the AFL (if he still is eligible to go) or winter ball to stretch out his arm more to try and start in 2010.

81 innings is a TON of innings for any reliever......let alone a rookie reliever with injury issues.....
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