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bust olney

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bust olney

Postby jellis » Sun Jan 25, 2009 1:02 pm

1. The Indians' Shin-Soo Choo is one of the most dangerous hitters in the big leagues against right-handed pitchers. Consider that last season, he posted a .992 OPS against righties, a number that placed him in the same class as Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez. He had 24 doubles and 11 homers in 240 at-bats against right-handers, and was a big part of the reason why the Indians' offense managed to finish seventh in the majors in runs last season despite limited help from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.

an excerpt from the numbers dont lie article he has up today
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Re: bust olney

Postby TheWord » Sun Jan 25, 2009 6:15 pm

As much as I would like to see those numbers continue, I won't hold my breath.
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Re: bust olney

Postby cardiackidz » Sun Jan 25, 2009 9:49 pm

the guy has over 500 big league at bats and a career average over 290. i really think he's a really good player and going to have a nice year. its not his fault that shapiro wanted to have trot nixons cooked old ass playing the outfield in 2007.
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Re: bust olney

Postby TheWord » Sun Jan 25, 2009 11:08 pm

So we were supposed to trot him out there after rotator cuff surgery?

Way to go Mark.
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Re: bust olney

Postby jellis » Sun Jan 25, 2009 11:13 pm

yeah he wasnt even able to play until after the first month of the year this year so really couldnt see him out there in 2007, Choo is a good platoon bat, but he played way over his head at the end of last year. I know everyone expects are offense to be much improved next year but choo and Shoppach played so over there heads we might end up offensively being worse especially if pronk doesn't recover
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Re: bust olney

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 26, 2009 10:19 am

TheWord wrote:So we were supposed to trot him out there after rotator cuff surgery?

Way to go Mark.


It was Tommy John surgery, not rotator cuff surgery....just an FYI.


Yeah, I loved what I saw last year from Choo.....but I'm not holding my breath either on him. We've seen too many times guys with great half to full years struggle a lot the next (Barfield, Peralta, Sowers, etc). Some recover nicely (peralta)....others don't (Sowers, Barfield)......I really hope Choo doesn't have a sophomore slump.....but we'll see. One good thing is we do have guys like Crowe, Brantley, and LaPorta waiting in the wings in AAA should he (and more likely Francisco) struggle....


Trying Garko in the OF could have something to do with the Tribe's uncertainty of their current OF group outside of Grady......more likely it's an insurance for Francisco, but really for Choo too....
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Re: bust olney

Postby jellis » Mon Jan 26, 2009 6:43 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
TheWord wrote:So we were supposed to trot him out there after rotator cuff surgery?

Way to go Mark.


It was Tommy John surgery, not rotator cuff surgery....just an FYI.


Yeah, I loved what I saw last year from Choo.....but I'm not holding my breath either on him. We've seen too many times guys with great half to full years struggle a lot the next (Barfield, Peralta, Sowers, etc). Some recover nicely (peralta)....others don't (Sowers, Barfield)......I really hope Choo doesn't have a sophomore slump.....but we'll see. One good thing is we do have guys like Crowe, Brantley, and LaPorta waiting in the wings in AAA should he (and more likely Francisco) struggle....


Trying Garko in the OF could have something to do with the Tribe's uncertainty of their current OF group outside of Grady......more likely it's an insurance for Francisco, but really for Choo too....


I think the garko OF thing is writing on the wall that wedge is done with garko. His at bats will be going to shoppach alot this year and with the young guys it really feels like garkos days are numbered
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Re: bust olney

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 27, 2009 10:25 am

jellis wrote:I think the garko OF thing is writing on the wall that wedge is done with garko. His at bats will be going to shoppach alot this year and with the young guys it really feels like garkos days are numbered


I don't know....I think Garko showed a lot to Wedge by the way he came back and improved after his benching. Wedge seems like a big character guy (hench why Phillips is gone), and Garko showed a ton of positive things late in the year.

I could be wrong....but I don't think anyone in the Tribe organization is sold on Francisco in LF. For the 2nd consecutive year his seond half stats have been absolutely terrible after hot starts (last year his .206 with a .487OPS in the 2nd half; this past year hit .236 with a .703 OPS in the 2nd half). He still seems best suited to be a 4th OFer. Likely just gonna hold a place in LF til LaPorta and/or Brantley/Crowe is ready....but again, I could be wrong. I just don't see him as an everyday player for the whole year.

Our best lineup would be Grady, DeRosa, Victor, Hafner, Peratla, Garko, Choo, Shoppach, Cabrera as far as bats go (IMO at least).....but unless one of Victor/Hafner/Garko/Shoppach is playing the OF, it can't happen (or I guess if Victor is playing 3B, which Wedge did hint at late last year....but not likely to happen in 2009).

Hafner needs to just focus on hitting and never step onto the field, except for 'maybe' an interleague game or two. Shoppach is a catcher and never played anywere else really. Victor would probably be the best candidate to play LF (or 3B as he was a SS originally) but with the injuries last year, leaving him at 1B/C is best idea. That leaves Garko. Has improved his footwork around the bag at 1B over the last 2-3 years. No one is gonna confuse him with Teixiera over there anytime soon, but he doesn't embarass himself there anymore. I'm confident in saying he's a better defensive 1B than Adam Dunn is......and don't think it's a stretch to think he could be as good or even better in LF than Dunn. Obviously I'm not going out on a big limb there....but just making a point that seeing Garko in LF for 10-20 games in 2009 really wouldn't be that bad, especially considering the extra offense we'd be likely to get......

But we'll see.....if LaPorta and Brantley or Crowe come out strong they could force both Franciso and Garko out of the lineup I suppose.....
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Re: bust olney

Postby jellis » Tue Jan 27, 2009 6:28 pm

Wedge always talks about consistency and garko has been anything but, I expect a lot more vic at 3B and garko to really get pushed back

at least to me writing is on the wall that garko has fallen out of favor
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Re: bust olney

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Jan 27, 2009 7:40 pm

jellis wrote:Wedge always talks about consistency and garko has been anything but, I expect a lot more vic at 3B and garko to really get pushed back

at least to me writing is on the wall that garko has fallen out of favor


which would be stupid, because Garko definately deserves a second chance. His 117 OPS+ and .365 wOBA in 2007 made him a solid 1st baseman, and there's no reason to believe he can't regain that form. Some positive signs from last season were an increase in BB%, LD% and a decrease in K%, but still his babip dropped. The numbers show that he hit some more grounders instead of flyballs, and he had a below average 8.1% HR/FB ratio, so perhaps he was just a little unlucky.

I really feel that Garko should be the starting baseman coming out of ST and if he hasn't shown signs of improvement in the first 2 months, it's time to give someone else a look (you could give him just 1 month if you prefer to keep him on a very short leash, even though that's almost the same as a strangling cord). Most projection systems have him at a .770-.800 OPS, which I think is a little pessimistic, but in all honesty, the success of our offense doesn't depend on Garko bouncing back. We need a healthy VMart and something that at the very least resembles just a precentage of the Pronk of old.
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Re: bust olney

Postby jellis » Tue Jan 27, 2009 8:38 pm

I agree I am a garko fan for the record, but I just think by what I have read and heard that Garko will be losing a lot of AB's to shoppach and then to laporta
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Re: bust olney

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 28, 2009 10:14 am

jellis wrote:Wedge always talks about consistency and garko has been anything but, I expect a lot more vic at 3B and garko to really get pushed back

at least to me writing is on the wall that garko has fallen out of favor


Who on the Tribe was consistent last year though really? Cliff Lee obviously. On offense you had Grady....and that's about it (plus he struggled at times, went through some big HR droughts). Peralta was hitting .261 in the first half with a terrible .306 OBP....second half hit .295 with a .361 OBP (SLG went down slightly though). Even Shoppach's numbers jumped around some.....though he was VERY consistent in striking out a lot.

I just feel Garko gets a bad rap. Francisco was even worse as far as consistency. Cabrera was the same way. Choo wasn't anything special til the last two months of the year.....which were also Garko's best two months.

It'd be one thing if Garko was the only one that struggled....but as a team the Tribe hit .250 with a .725 OPS before the All-Star break....after they .280 with a .813 OPS. The whole team struggled last year, not right to just single out Garko's inconsistencies IMO....
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Re: bust olney

Postby TheWord » Wed Jan 28, 2009 11:55 am

I would question the sanity of anyone who expects to see Victor play more 3rd base.
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Re: bust olney

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 28, 2009 12:20 pm

TheWord wrote:I would question the sanity of anyone who expects to see Victor play more 3rd base.


I think that was a typo on his part. Think he meant to say 1B (as he was talking about garko as well).....but maybe not.
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Re: bust olney

Postby artgold » Wed Jan 28, 2009 12:33 pm

I'm more upbeat about BenFran than many of the Indian posters. I think he will be a decent ballplayer, and I expect him to hit about .280, increasing his OBP to about .350, while retaining his power numbers.

I agree he had a bad September, but he had multiple hits games in three of the last six games he started.

I think he will be just fine.
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Re: bust olney

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 28, 2009 12:50 pm

ha, those are pretty lofty numbers......

One could easily 'expect' Garko to hit .290 with a .360 OBP and 20-25 HRs as well.....which is something he's actually done before (2007).

Francisco is no spring chicken either (older than Grady, Choo, and Gut who's now gone), and only 10 months younger than Garko. He could be a late bloomer like a Ryan Ludwick and start really mashing here.....but I don't see it. He's a dead-pull hitter who has some big holes in his swing. Was the EXTREMELY bad September just a bad month, or did pitchers figure him out again?

We'll see this year....I think it was the pitcher's figured him out....but hope I'm wrong and you are right.....

One of the big pluses about him in the minors too was his speed. He could steal 20+ bases....yet stole 4 last year and was caught 3 times. He's shown he's 'ok' at just about everything.....but isn't that good really at any skill.....which to me, makes him a 4th OFer.....which isn't a bad thing if LaPorta can step up early in the year.....
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Re: bust olney

Postby artgold » Wed Jan 28, 2009 1:37 pm

You may be right, but the thing that nags away at me is how much better he has done when he gets a second decent shot at each level.

If you take a look at his Akron performance in 2004/2005 you see significantly improved performance (.254/.307 BA, .326/.357 OBP, .414/.474 SLG), and he does it again in 2006/2007 at Buffalo (.278/.318 BA, .345/.382 OBP, .454/.496 SLG).

I just wonder if this is something he will repeat when given a second decent shot in the majors. Perhaps he won't pick it up, and September was indicative of his holes being exploited by major league pitchers. But my betting is that he does actually improved on last year.
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Re: bust olney

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 28, 2009 2:02 pm

Most minor leaguers do better when they repeat a level.........

And this year was kinda his second shot at the big leagues.....and twice he's shown he can't mantain his hitting (hot starts, then cools off).


Seems like everyone has a slightly different opinion of Francisco.....
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