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What now?

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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 13, 2009 1:38 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:The thing I have issue with is the "he's a run producer" comment.

Is he?

Then why did he only drive in 61 runs in 2007 when he hit more HRs and doubles and had a higher BA, OBP, SLG, OPS?

What happened between 2007 and 2008 that turned Garko into a "run producer" - that phrase BTW is a typical example of old fashioned "Baseball Speak" if you ask me.... goes well with "Plays the game the right way".

I make judgements about hitters and whomever based on seeing them in person (well at least on tape) and by making judgements on their what I call "repeatable statistics". By which I mean the statistic that their own personal performance has the most effect on.

So, based on my seeing Garkos repeated "drop to one knee swing" and my judgement of his statistics I felt Giambi would be a much better option.

And this time, that's really all I have to say on the matter! haha


Garko set a ML record in 2006 for most RBIs in 50 or fewer games (45), so 2008 wasn't the first time he was producing runs.....


Garko's struggles with RISP in 2007 contributed to his lower RBI totals (sophmore slump as well). Also was the go to man in 2008 with Victor and Hafner out....and he proved he could step up and be that guy (along with Peralta).

Would Giambi be a better option at 1B in 2008 than Garko? Possibly, maybe even likely.....but how much? I don't think enough to make the move (especially with Shoppach and Victor already on the team).


Also like how you pointed out that Garko had more RBIs in 2008 than 2007 despite having a lower BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS.......though has nothing to do with what we're talking about, points out why I hate just using those stats to say whether a player is better than another player. RBIs are a very important stat. Doesn't matter how the guy does it, as long as he drives in (or scores) runs, I want him on my team......
Last edited by Hermie13 on Tue Jan 13, 2009 2:19 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Tue Jan 13, 2009 1:48 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Also like how you pointed out that Garko had more RBIs in 2008 than 2007 despite having a lower BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS.......though has nothing to do with what we're talking about, points out why I hate just using those stats to say whether a player is better than another player. RBIs are a very important stat. Doesn't matter how the guy does it, as long as he drives in (or scores) runs, I want him on my team......


OK.... I'll bite.

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS has everything to do with what we are talking about that's my point. RBIs aren't a very important stat, they are a can be a function of being a good hitter, but they are not a sign of a good hitter.

If you'd rather have 2008 Garko in your lineup than 2007 Garko (who's OPS was 125 points higher) than I don't know what to tell you.

RBIs are meaningless because I'll tell you this, if you have a .875OPS guy in your lineup and a .750OPS guy in your lineup 9 times out of 10 the .875OPS guy would have more RBIs because like I said, RBIs can result from being a good hitter.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 13, 2009 1:59 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:OK.... I'll bite.

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS has everything to do with what we are talking about that's my point. RBIs aren't a very important stat, they are a can be a function of being a good hitter, but they are not a sign of a good hitter.

If you'd rather have 2008 Garko in your lineup than 2007 Garko (who's OPS was 125 points higher) than I don't know what to tell you.

RBIs are meaningless because I'll tell you this, if you have a .875OPS guy in your lineup and a .750OPS guy in your lineup 9 times out of 10 the .875OPS guy would have more RBIs because like I said, RBIs can result from being a good hitter.


I agree, typically the guy with the higher OPS will have more RBIs.....but people have begun to neglect RBIs as a stat in favor of sabermetrics and other stats, which just isn't right. RBI is still a great stat at determining a players value and worth. Garko was flat out great with RISP and in key situations in 2008....yet overall his OPS was down. Does that mean he wasn't a very valuable player for the Tribe in 2008? Of course not.

I'd MUCH rather have 2008 Garko in my lineup than 2007. Garko hit .315 with RISP in 2008 (and .333 with a 1.013 OPS with 2 outs)....only .235 in 2007.......so yeah, he got on base more and hit more HRs in 2007....but they were less meaningful than what he did in 2008. MEANINGFUL hits are what's important in baseball, and Garko had plenty of them in 2008 (way more than 2007).


Now obviously I'd LOVE to find a combonation of the 2007 and 2008 Garko in 2009 (high OPS, RBIs, and cluth hitting.....basically the 2006 Garko).....but if I had to pick one, I'd go with the cluth Garko that drove in runs and won games for the Tribe.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Tue Jan 13, 2009 4:22 pm

RBI's are worthless they are a fluke stat that is more a stat of the hitters in front of a guy and not his own skill level. You can have low RBI's and be the best hitter in baseball or have a higher total and still be a crappy hitter.

RBI's are like wins and AVG out dated stats anymore who are truely over valued
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 13, 2009 5:01 pm

Guys in front of you can get on every time you come to the plate. Unless you're a good hitter with RISP/men on base, you're not gonna get RBIs plain and simple (and thus aren't a good hitter). The best hitters aren't necessarily the ones with high OPSs but rather good averages in meaningful situations (ie, RISP). Now, guys like Pujols and Ramirez are great at both....yet better with RISP (Ramirez had an OPS 150 pts higher with RISP than with no one on base for example). That is what you want to look for in a great hitter.


Never said OPS was a bad stat (very important one). The point I was making is that people tend to take it as the holy grail of stats too often now-a-days and discount players with lower ones as 'bad' players. There are other stats just as important and even more important than OPS. RBIs may not be more important, but they are still far from worthless. You don't necessarily need have a high slugging% to be a run producer. singles can drive in as many runs as a HR sometimes depending on the situation. Your OPS won't be as high, but the team can benefit more from it, which is the main thing.

When it comes right down to it, the game is about wins and losses....which comes down to scoring more runs than the other team. Give me the guy that can hit in key spots and drive in runs over the guy that falls flat on his face in those situations (Giambi hit .213 with RISP last year!).

I'd MUCH rather have a guy that consistently puts up a .900 OPS AND knocks in 100 runs than a guy like Garko who will likely never (or very rarely) have an OPS of .900.....but I'll take the RBIs (and runs) anyway I can get them, doesn't have to come with an extemely high OPS....

Bottom line, if I had to choose a stat to say which hitter is better than the other, I'd go with OPS.....but that doesn't mean that it's the only stat. Garko is a bit of a rare-breed. He's going to drive in runs based on what we've seen from his first 3 years in the bigs (career .292 average and .827 OPS with RISP, and even better w/ 2out and RISP, .302 BA/.908 OPS). He reminds me of a young Edgar Martinez. Never gonna be a big time power hitter (Edgar only once hit 30 or more HRs), but he'll hit for a nice average (not saying as good as Edgar, but the similarities are there at the younger age) and hit VERY well with RISP, which will lead to nice RBI totals.


What started this was, did we need to upgrade at 1B over Garko? We could use an upgrade.....but is it worth it to take arguably your best 'clutch' hitter out of the lineup for it? hard to say I guess.....
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:33 pm

I think its kind of dumb to give up on garko he has shown flashes hes got one more year I think to prove it, or else laporta takes over at first maybe even only 6 more months. I thought he could be a mini pronk back when pronk was amazing and I stand by that.

I just argue Rbi's are over rated as is RISP. You should hit much better with RISP because the pressure is on the pitcher. RISP is also a bit of a fluke stat I mean look at the twins last year on the whole evetuanlly there fluky RISP caught up to them. BTW I am too lazy to type RISP avg so just infer it
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Re: What now?

Postby endlesssleeper » Tue Jan 13, 2009 7:00 pm

RISP is most definitely a fluke. Casey Blake anyone?
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:40 am

Guys, Garko is nothing but a placeholder. The Indians have at least three 1B with higher projection than Garko in the upper levels of the minors. Garko is just a cheap fillin until the organization provides a better alternative. Neither his offense or defense is up to ML average but he doesn't hurt the team that badly. Same can be said for Francisco. Cheap and does not embarrass the team. Just waiting for the better player. Better than Marte, Barfield and Dellucci but expendable just the same.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 10:04 am

indianinkslinger wrote:Guys, Garko is nothing but a placeholder. The Indians have at least three 1B with higher projection than Garko in the upper levels of the minors. Garko is just a cheap fillin until the organization provides a better alternative. Neither his offense or defense is up to ML average but he doesn't hurt the team that badly. Same can be said for Francisco. Cheap and does not embarrass the team. Just waiting for the better player. Better than Marte, Barfield and Dellucci but expendable just the same.


LaPorta and Mills are the only two that could be said to be better than Garko.....and LaPorta could easily wind up in the OF. Who is this 3rd guy? Not Hodges....definately not Brown...nor is it Aubrey.

I do agree, that Garko isn't likely to be the starting 1B in 3 years.....but but it's possible. If LaPorta stays in the OF and Mills ends up a DH, Garko could be there (Hafner's contract expires the same time Garko reaches free agency.....if he's not given a longer contract). More likely though Garko will eventually be traded (though Mills could be).....but unless we get something very useful (like a nice starting pitcher) for Garko (and something else), I'd hang onto him for the time being. We'll need his clutch bat for the season.


RISP is only a 'fluke' stat if you have one good year......Garko has had 2 in 3 years and has hit well in the minors as well. The pressure isn't just on the pitcher in those situations either; it's on the hitter just as much if not more so. OPS can be just as much a 'fluke' stat as RISP. But if you consistently put up a good OPS, you prove that it's not a fluke.....same goes with RISP and every other stat in baseball basically.
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Re: What now?

Postby dazindiansfanuk » Wed Jan 14, 2009 10:09 am

Hermie13 wrote:LaPorta and Mills are the only two that could be said to be better than Garko.....and LaPorta could easily wind up in the OF. Who is this 3rd guy? Not Hodges....definately not Brown...nor is it Aubrey.


Weglarz?
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 10:21 am

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:LaPorta and Mills are the only two that could be said to be better than Garko.....and LaPorta could easily wind up in the OF. Who is this 3rd guy? Not Hodges....definately not Brown...nor is it Aubrey.


Weglarz?


Has he played any 1B yet in the minors? I know he was one in HS, but the Tribe seems set on leaving him in the OF (for now at least).....plus he's still very young and raw. I don't see or consider him a threat to Garko in the near future (though in 2-3 years he very well could be). He took a bit of a step back at Kinston last year (though a notoriously strong pitchers league).....so we'll see how well he handles AA......
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Jan 14, 2009 12:16 pm

Still much higher upside than Garko but, obviously, that is too much for you to grasp.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 12:48 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:Still much higher upside than Garko but, obviously, that is too much for you to grasp.


Good grief kid. Where did I say that Weglarz didn't have a higher upside than Garko? I actually did say it. But a higher upside at the age of 20 at High-A, doesn't mean that he'll be better than Garko and replace him (especially since he hasn't played the position of Garko since turning pro).

But guess that's way too much for you to grasp :s_empathy


And don't forget how Garko was in the minors. He hit for a higher average and had more power (same discipline pretty much) than Weglarz. Garko was older....but just pointing out there's FAR from a gurantee that Weglarz is ever better than Garko. I think he will be....but he's still got 2 full years in the minors at least to prove it.
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:40 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:Still much higher upside than Garko but, obviously, that is too much for you to grasp.


Good grief kid. Where did I say that Weglarz didn't have a higher upside than Garko? I actually did say it. But a higher upside at the age of 20 at High-A, doesn't mean that he'll be better than Garko and replace him (especially since he hasn't played the position of Garko since turning pro).

But guess that's way too much for you to grasp :s_empathy


And don't forget how Garko was in the minors. He hit for a higher average and had more power (same discipline pretty much) than Weglarz. Garko was older....but just pointing out there's FAR from a gurantee that Weglarz is ever better than Garko. I think he will be....but he's still got 2 full years in the minors at least to prove it.


Weglarz has likely played more 1B since he entered pro ball than Garko did by the time he finished Kinston. BTW, the only question on the table was who was the third prospect with higher potential, boy, because you couldn't grasp who might have higher potential(look at your post). And that is a "gurantee", of ignorance. :s_laughat
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:53 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:Weglarz has likely played more 1B since he entered pro ball than Garko did by the time he finished Kinston. BTW, the only question on the table was who was the third prospect with higher potential, boy, because you couldn't grasp who might have higher potential(look at your post). And that is a "gurantee", of ignorance. :s_laughat


lol, you are just too much fun. :s_rofl

Weglarz has played ZERO games at 1B since entering pro-ball. Garko played 26 games at 1B in Kinston. Any more info you'd like?

No, the question was about who the 3rd 1B prospect was that would outperform Garko. Weglarz not playing any 1B in the Tribe system tells me they're set on leaving him in the OF. LaPorta also hasn't played 1 inning of 1B for the tribe (though I think he will this year). And the key to your statement is 'might' have higher potential. As things stand now, neither Weglarz nor Mills has proven they are any better than Garko was in the minors.
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Re: What now?

Postby TheWord » Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:20 pm

Garko's OPS is about 30 points higher than Weglarz at this point in his career.

I mean I like Weglarz at all, not that much actually, but this hate for Garko is certainly unfounded, and bringing up prospects that were putting up worse stats at this point in their careers isn't making the argument any better.

This year is absolutely HUGE for Nick to show that his power is developing and he will raise that OPS.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:44 pm

In fairness to Weglarz though, he is a HS prospect who never played college ball like Garko did. Consider Weglarz may not even be done growing and filling out his body yet (just turned 21 a month ago).

However, I do agree with the rest of what you said. Won't say it's a 'make or break' type of year for Weglarz (not that you said that), but he does need to improve on the 10 HRs he hit last year (hit 24 the previous year). Akron is tough place for a lot of people to hit HRs (several guys have admitted it...the park is actually bigger down the lines and in other areas than Progressive Field)....but hopefully he'll continue to develop and show a bunch of pop with the bat.

It's gonna be really fun watching him, Mills, and Santana hitting in Akron next year.....
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:22 pm

Brantly also played a lot of 1B last year because he is not the best OF. I like Garko but lets face it this si a make or break year and really 2 to 3 months.

OBP is not a fluke it shows a lot about a hitters patience and approach. RISP is most defiantly a fluke stat no one outside of talking heads support it really, because its such a small sample size.

At the end of the day it should be much easier to hit with RISP then when no one is on base
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:45 pm

jellis wrote:Brantly also played a lot of 1B last year because he is not the best OF. I like Garko but lets face it this si a make or break year and really 2 to 3 months.

OBP is not a fluke it shows a lot about a hitters patience and approach. RISP is most defiantly a fluke stat no one outside of talking heads support it really, because its such a small sample size.

At the end of the day it should be much easier to hit with RISP then when no one is on base


No, he did not. He did in 2007, but last year he made great strides as an outfielder and was even moved from LF to CF by the Brewers.

I never said OBP was a fluke stat. Was talking about OPS (re-read my post) because a year with a power surge can jack that number up. I don't think either career RISP nor career OPS is a 'fluky' stat...but I would agree that between the two RISP is more so (though not much really).

I agree on the small sample size for RISP for a single season.....but not when you take into account a whole career. Garko in his career has 346 at-bats with RISP, and has put up very good numbers. Some guys throughout their careers have great numbers with men on base/RISP. People take into account playoff stats (which are a MUCH smaller sample size than RISP). why do they do that? Because it shows how a guy handles pressure situations. NOT saying RISP is the only stat to use. Just that it's an important one.

No one stat tells the whole story about a player. You need to look at several, and RISP is one of them.


I also don't think Garko only has one more year to prove himself necessarily. LaPorta could VERY easily be in LF in 2010 and not 1B (I have WAY more faith in Garko than Francisco....but maybe that's just me). Shoppach I'm not sold on either....would rather have garko at 1B and Victor behind the plate than Shop catching and vic at 1B....though I know a lot people disagree with that. Until Brantley and Mills (and to an extent Weglarz) are fully ML ready, I don't see Garko losing a job in Cleveland, unless they decide to trade him for something they truly need.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:10 pm

And while we're on Garko......


I do NOT 'want' to see Garko traded.....but in the right scenario it could really improve this team. For a while I was saying that Baltimore would be one of those places (and still would be). Mostly for Roberts....but possibly if we could land Guthrie from them (though don't know why they'd trade him). TB would have been a nice place....but they landed Burrell so they're out. There's others like Seattle and even Oakland to an extent still.

But one place I haven't heard mentioned outside of a few of my buddies is the Angels.

Looking at the Angels depth chart and who they have in the minors and such.....it appears (for the moment) that 1B would be occupied by Morales and/or Quinlan.....not exactly a scary tandem. Depending on who you read or listen to, they are high on getting Dye from the White Sox....but the Sox (again, depending on who you read/listen to) want either Figgins or some top pitching prospects for Dye. Figgins would be a PERFECT fit in Chicago as they desperately need a leadoff hitter.....but does that deal really make much sense for the Angels? Who hits leadoff if they trade Figgins? Aybar had a .314 OBP last year which was the best he's put up in the 3 partial seasons he's been playing in the MLs. Kendrick doesn't walk enough....though I suppose worst case he could be stretched there. So adding Dye would help the middle of their lineup....but would it offset the lack of a table setter? Maybe....

But what about adding Garko to that lineup at 1B? Garko isn't a speed guy, which LA loves....but does still put up an ok OBP. His was .346 last year, which was the worst of his 3 year career, yet would have been good enough for 5th best on the Angels....and that's couting Tex who is gone (and he'd be replacing). Garko's 'bad' OPS of .750 was better than any other option they have now for 1B (and again, 7 guys were better...one being Tex and two being less than .01 better). He'd fit in rather nicely for that team....plus be very cheap.

And how much better is Dye than Garko? Garko actually had a slightly better OBP (but nothing of significance), but Dye was by far the better overall hitter (though Garko was only 6 RBIs behind). But look at their 2007 numbers. Garko had the better OPS....though fewer RBIs. Garko is $11M cheaper and 7 years younger (under control for much longer too). Plus the Angels seemed to be logjamed in the OF. I know Guerrero needs time at DH...but they resigned Rivera, have Hunter in CF, and have Matthews signed to big bucks still. Heck, even if they got Dye, Garko would be a welcome sign most likely to them as they'd still have a hole at 1B (I'm not sold on Morales, though I know some people are).


Absolutely no substance to this idea.....but it could work out for both clubs. Saying what you could get from the Angels is tough.....ideally you'd love to land a starter (Saunders would be very nice).....but after losing Garland and with Escobar hurt, they are a tad thin actually.....though parting with one of Saunders/Weaver/Santana could still work (if we threw in Laffey or Huff as well). Would Garko and Huff/Laffey for Saunders be enough to get them to bite? eh, doubtful.....but an idea.....
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Re: What now?

Postby endlesssleeper » Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:44 pm

Hermie13 wrote:And how much better is Dye than Garko? ..


Alot.
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Re: What now?

Postby TheWord » Wed Jan 14, 2009 7:59 pm

endlesssleeper wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:And how much better is Dye than Garko? ..


Alot.



Pretty much right on the nose.

The OPS is 135 points higher than Garko, that's pretty much all you need to know.

Granted, Garko is young and Dye is not, but that isn't the debate.
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:58 am

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:Weglarz has likely played more 1B since he entered pro ball than Garko did by the time he finished Kinston. BTW, the only question on the table was who was the third prospect with higher potential, boy, because you couldn't grasp who might have higher potential(look at your post). And that is a "gurantee", of ignorance. :s_laughat


lol, you are just too much fun. :s_rofl

Weglarz has played ZERO games at 1B since entering pro-ball. Garko played 26 games at 1B in Kinston. Any more info you'd like?

No, the question was about who the 3rd 1B prospect was that would outperform Garko. Weglarz not playing any 1B in the Tribe system tells me they're set on leaving him in the OF. LaPorta also hasn't played 1 inning of 1B for the tribe (though I think he will this year). And the key to your statement is 'might' have higher potential. As things stand now, neither Weglarz nor Mills has proven they are any better than Garko was in the minors.

Gee, I thought I saw Weglarz on TV playing 1B several times in 2008 and prior. Of course it wasn't in Kinston or Lake County but it has been since he started pro ball. :s_laughat Gee, I am sure impressed with your 7th grade logic. Did you get the help of the whole class or arrive at these conclusions on your own? BTW, Garko was never as highly rated as any of the three potential 1B. I notice how you overlook Garko's performance higher in the organization even though he was older throughout his time in the minors. It's just the natural order of things, little hermie! When you get to high school, it will get clearer. Of course, with your English, you will probably be Garko's age. :s_sarcastic
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 10:09 am

TheWord wrote:
endlesssleeper wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:And how much better is Dye than Garko? ..


Alot.



Pretty much right on the nose.

The OPS is 135 points higher than Garko, that's pretty much all you need to know.

Granted, Garko is young and Dye is not, but that isn't the debate.


OBP wise they are very similar.....and RBI wise same. Garko also had a higher OPS than Dye in 2007......it's not really a stretch to think he'll be better than him again in 2009......
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 10:24 am

indianinkslinger wrote:Gee, I thought I saw Weglarz on TV playing 1B several times in 2008 and prior. Of course it wasn't in Kinston or Lake County but it has been since he started pro ball. :s_laughat Gee, I am sure impressed with your 7th grade logic. Did you get the help of the whole class or arrive at these conclusions on your own? BTW, Garko was never as highly rated as any of the three potential 1B. I notice how you overlook Garko's performance higher in the organization even though he was older throughout his time in the minors. It's just the natural order of things, little hermie! When you get to high school, it will get clearer. Of course, with your English, you will probably be Garko's age. :s_sarcastic


Eyes must be playing tricks on you, because no site I can find lists him ever playing 1B since HS. He even played LF in the Olympics for Team Canada.

Garko was ranked 5th best prospect in the Tribe's system at one point and the best overall offensive player by Baseball America. Was also ranked one of the 10 best hitting prospects in the AL minors after the 2004 season before he made his ML debut with Cleveland. Before the 2006 season SI also had him in their top 80 of best prospects in all of baseball (ranked right around Pedroia and Hamels). Garko was also ranked the 45th best high school prospect before going to Stanford (which was higher than Weglarz). In fact, for their ages, Garko was actually more highly touted than Weglarz.

And if you actually read my posts (which I realize is beyond you), I DID mentioned Garko's age as one thing that works in Weglarz's favor. He still has time since he's a few years younger.
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Re: What now?

Postby TheWord » Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:47 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
TheWord wrote:
endlesssleeper wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:And how much better is Dye than Garko? ..


Alot.



Pretty much right on the nose.

The OPS is 135 points higher than Garko, that's pretty much all you need to know.

Granted, Garko is young and Dye is not, but that isn't the debate.


OBP wise they are very similar.....and RBI wise same. Garko also had a higher OPS than Dye in 2007......it's not really a stretch to think he'll be better than him again in 2009......



Yes, in a down year for Dye (his worst by far) Garko was able to catch him. Obviously Garko is on the upswing of his career and Dye is not. Again, that is not the argument. Jermaine Dye hits for more power, better OPS, OBP, AVG, HR, RBI, plays better defense and has more speed than Garko.

That makes him a better player, by alot. Now I'm sure you'll point out one instance where Garko came close to matching a statistic of Dye one time, but there just isn't enough convincing in the world that's going to take away from the FACT Dye is a much better player than Garko.
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:16 pm

Dye didn't have a better OBP this past season even (or either of the last two seasons)......only 6 more RBIs as well. 2007 also was FAR from the worst year for Dye....he's actually had 7 seasons with a lower OPS than what he had that year (.803). Garko's career OBP is 15 points higher than Dye's as well (so wasn't a 1-time thing), and his career BA is 6 points higher. Dye has also lost a lot of speed....still faster than Garko (not many people aren't, lol), but that's hardly a strength to consider.

Dye would also DH most of the time in LA anyways. He's the WORST defensive RFer over the past 3 season according to the +/- ratings (and was 3rd worst in 2008). Garko doesn't show up in the bottom 10 for 1Bs. He's not good, but does an ok job. Dye is a liability in the OF and would only play there to give Guerrero days off as the DH.


Never said Garko was better than Dye though....just pointing out is it worth the extra $11M PLUS giving up Figgins or top pitching prospects for the Angels? If both were free agents costing the same amount of money (Garko and Dye) I'd take Dye for 2009 (though not by as much as most are making it out to be).....but they both don't cost the same.


Another thing about this 'deal' with the angels and White Sox that never made sense to me.....if the Angels wanted a RFer that has pop in his bat....why not just sign Abreu? He'll likely cost $12M or so a year for 3 year years (my guess is he'll still get a bit more than Bradley), plays no worse defense than Dye, can drive in 100 runs, puts up great OBPs that the Angels love.....and cost NO players. Can hit 20 HRs and steal 20 bases as well.....seems like the perfect fit for the Angels. He's the exact same age as Dye as well (about 6 weeks younger is the only differnce).....
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Re: What now?

Postby MickS » Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:22 pm

I've always seen Garko as a place-holder. I think LaPorta might wind up at 1B or maybe even Hodges if his defense at 3B doesn't hold up. Even Martinez could be an option if he is retained after Santana is ready. 1B is a position where we have many future options. If Garko can be traded for something of value, I would consider him expendable.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Thu Jan 15, 2009 7:31 pm

hes had 2.5 years to solidify his standing and has failed at this if people are talking about him losing his spot, hes got 6 months to prove it then I am pretty sure the indians will move along.

his most similar hitter comparatively through age 27 is dave Revering who is that, exactly what I am thinking
Familiar and recent names in his top ten most comparable reggie jefferson, paul sorento, josh phelps, JT snow, rico Brogna

Not exactly a great grouping for garko
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Re: What now?

Postby TheWord » Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:39 pm

In a perfect world, LaPorta plays right field and one of Brantley/Crowe eventually wins the left fielder job.

Dellucci is DFA'd, Choo and Shoppach are dealt for a starter or Choo stays on as the 4th OF (assuming last season was an abberation, which I believe it was) with Francisco leaving.

Toregas is brought up to replace Shoppach and opens up the AAA catching job for Santana, who is brought up in September to get his feet wet before taking over as the full time catcher with Martinez moving to 1B on a full time basis.

Garko is either dealt after this season or moved to DH depending on Hafner's production.

2010 Lineup:

LF - Brantley/Crowe
SS - Cabrera
CF - Sizemore
DH - Hafner/Garko(down in the order)
1B - Martinez (moves to 4th if Garko is DH)
3B - Peralta
RF - LaPorta
C - Santana
2B - Valbuena

Reserve:

C - Toregas
IF(2B) - Barfield
IF(UT) - TBD
OF - Francisco/Choo
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 10:09 am

I don't see Hodges ever being the guy moving Garko from his spot at 1B. Hodges has been good....but no better than Garko. At 3B Hodges would work, but not 1B for this team.


I like the lineup you've put up Word (though I'd go with Gimenez instead of Toregas....but makes lil difference). I just don't see Santana being ready to start opening day that soon. It's not even a sure thing he'll get a call-up in September. He's not a speed guy and the Tribe doesn't tend to bring up bats much (though they have). I know you said 'perfect world' scenario.....but I just think Santana opening in AAA in 2010 is best for his development as a catcher and for the Tribe as a team.

Also don't ever see Crowe hitting leadoff. He's a #2 hitter at best (career OBP in the minors is nothing special). I'd keep Grady up there. Only guy I see bumping him down is Brantley.....which would definately be a welcome sign.....Brantley, AC, and Grady have the skill set it appears to bring back the days of Lofton, Omar, and Robbie at the top of the order.......Brantley and AC still have a ways to go to prove they can be those players.....but they are on the right track.....
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Re: What now?

Postby TheWord » Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:35 pm

I don't disagree with any of that, except for the fact I feel Santana is on the fast track and will prove himself as such this season. I really see a lot of Russell Martin in this kid.

Toregas I like because of his defensive ability. Gimenez certainly would be a viable option as well, probably brings more with the stick.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:08 pm

santana wont see any MLB time till mid season 2010, indians do not rush any prospects ever
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:10 pm

jellis wrote:santana wont see any MLB time till mid season 2010, indians do not rush any prospects ever


Marte, Phillips, Sowers, Carmona, Gutierrez, Cabrera.....all prospects that were rushed by the Tribe.....and that's just within the last few years....
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:16 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
jellis wrote:santana wont see any MLB time till mid season 2010, indians do not rush any prospects ever


Marte, Phillips, Sowers, Carmona, Gutierrez, Cabrera.....all prospects that were rushed by the Tribe.....and that's just within the last few years....


No one but Phillips from that list was rushed. Sowers was dominate so he got the call. Asdrubal was rushed by seattle we sent him down a level. Gutierrez had a year and a half at AAA. Marte had been in the majors for ATL the year before we acquired him. Carmona had the equilvant of a full year at AA, I dont see a signel rush. Taking a guy from AA to the majors in a year would be a rush mvoe by the tribe
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:27 pm

Sowers had minimal experience in the minors before getting called up....that's call being rushed. Went from A ball to the MLs in a year! Being dominate has nothing to do with it. Was still rushed.

A full year at AA then up in the Majors IS being rushed, ie Carmona

Jensen Lewis was in AA in 2007 then got rushed to the big leagues. Edward Mujica was in AA in 2006 and got rushed to the big leagues.


Cabrera was 'more' rushed by the Mariners....but was in AA in 2007 then jumped all the way the MLs. Judging by his struggles this past year, you could tell he was rushed and a bit overmatched offensively.


Marte was in the MLs in Atlanta...but was still rushed. Should have spent more time in AAA instead of being given the starting job in 2007, hence was rushed to play in the MLs as a starter.

Gutierrez went from AA to playing in a penant race in a year.....that's being rushed.

So according to you, Santana could see time in Cleveland in 2009 since he won't be rushed as he's gonna be playing in AA to start the year.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:49 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Sowers had minimal experience in the minors before getting called up....that's call being rushed. Went from A ball to the MLs in a year! Being dominate has nothing to do with it. Was still rushed.

A full year at AA then up in the Majors IS being rushed, ie Carmona

Jensen Lewis was in AA in 2007 then got rushed to the big leagues. Edward Mujica was in AA in 2006 and got rushed to the big leagues.


Cabrera was 'more' rushed by the Mariners....but was in AA in 2007 then jumped all the way the MLs. Judging by his struggles this past year, you could tell he was rushed and a bit overmatched offensively.


Marte was in the MLs in Atlanta...but was still rushed. Should have spent more time in AAA instead of being given the starting job in 2007, hence was rushed to play in the MLs as a starter.

Gutierrez went from AA to playing in a penant race in a year.....that's being rushed.

So according to you, Santana could see time in Cleveland in 2009 since he won't be rushed as he's gonna be playing in AA to start the year.


we didnt rush cabrera or marte so they dont count, franklin played in 7 games in 2005 then had 400+ Ab over 2 years at AA thats not rushed.Carmona had been in AA and then AAa a full year and had 20 combined starts thats not rushed. He had a full spilt year then another 2 to 3 months.

you are having to sink to mujica who was never really thought of highly and lewis another MR for rushes doesnt help your case at all
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:32 pm

lol, right. Bringing up kids that aren't even old enough to drink legally isn't rushing them, lol
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:48 pm

Hermie13 wrote:lol, right. Bringing up kids that aren't even old enough to drink legally isn't rushing them, lol


not if they have a track record
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:06 pm

And most guys didn't. THAT'S THE POINT. Just because they played at AA or AAA doesn't mean they were ready for the MLs and weren't rushed, good grief
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:28 pm

We have our answer. The Indians are going to give Garko OF time. Shapiro made it quite clear that his time at 1B is going to be down. Whoever the great baseball sage who said "If you can't succeed at first, try the outfield" may not have had Garko in mind. While I am sure to get an argument from the usual places, I consider this to be an indication that Garko is a placeholder who does not fit into the Tribe's future. Several of our organizational OF prospects suddenly look much better as a defensive option.

Anyone who enjoys a good read should take a look at PC's recent article entitled "Columbus". I am sure most of you know that PC is Tony's partner in crime on the broadcasts and always has valuable insight.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:38 pm

Hermie13 wrote:And most guys didn't. THAT'S THE POINT. Just because they played at AA or AAA doesn't mean they were ready for the MLs and weren't rushed, good grief



if you preform at AAA and AA that is what is called a track record its not oh well your 23 now you have a track record, see a record is based off of production. Sowers produced. Asdrubal produced. Every guy you mentioned prouduced on the AA and AA level and at AA for over a year that isnt a rush. a rush is skipping levels. A rush is cameron maybin or travis snider.
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Re: What now?

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:50 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:Gee, I thought I saw Weglarz on TV playing 1B several times in 2008 and prior. Of course it wasn't in Kinston or Lake County but it has been since he started pro ball. :s_laughat Gee, I am sure impressed with your 7th grade logic. Did you get the help of the whole class or arrive at these conclusions on your own? BTW, Garko was never as highly rated as any of the three potential 1B. I notice how you overlook Garko's performance higher in the organization even though he was older throughout his time in the minors. It's just the natural order of things, little hermie! When you get to high school, it will get clearer. Of course, with your English, you will probably be Garko's age. :s_sarcastic


Eyes must be playing tricks on you, because no site I can find lists him ever playing 1B since HS. He even played LF in the Olympics for Team Canada.

Garko was ranked 5th best prospect in the Tribe's system at one point and the best overall offensive player by Baseball America. Was also ranked one of the 10 best hitting prospects in the AL minors after the 2004 season before he made his ML debut with Cleveland. Before the 2006 season SI also had him in their top 80 of best prospects in all of baseball (ranked right around Pedroia and Hamels). Garko was also ranked the 45th best high school prospect before going to Stanford (which was higher than Weglarz). In fact, for their ages, Garko was actually more highly touted than Weglarz.

And if you actually read my posts (which I realize is beyond you), I DID mentioned Garko's age as one thing that works in Weglarz's favor. He still has time since he's a few years younger.

You know, it did look a lot like James Earl Jones! I could have been watching "Field of Dreams" and they look so much alike. :s_dance How about sites you cannot find? How did they rank Garko as an OF? Weren't those rankings as a Catcher?

Reading your posts is not beyond me, it is beneath me. When I want the adolescent perspective, I'll find one who has a grasp of English! :s_laughat
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 19, 2009 9:48 am

jellis wrote:if you preform at AAA and AA that is what is called a track record its not oh well your 23 now you have a track record, see a record is based off of production. Sowers produced. Asdrubal produced. Every guy you mentioned prouduced on the AA and AA level and at AA for over a year that isnt a rush. a rush is skipping levels. A rush is cameron maybin or travis snider.


By this logic Santana being brought up in 2009 won't be rushing him as he produced this past year.....


Tribe does rush guys. They have a lot and it's hurt some guys' development sadly.....
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Mon Jan 19, 2009 2:32 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
jellis wrote:if you preform at AAA and AA that is what is called a track record its not oh well your 23 now you have a track record, see a record is based off of production. Sowers produced. Asdrubal produced. Every guy you mentioned prouduced on the AA and AA level and at AA for over a year that isnt a rush. a rush is skipping levels. A rush is cameron maybin or travis snider.


By this logic Santana being brought up in 2009 won't be rushing him as he produced this past year.....


Tribe does rush guys. They have a lot and it's hurt some guys' development sadly.....


where show me one guy outside of phillips, Santana could be up by june or july 2010 not to start the year that is the tribes MO and thats not a rush just that is a normal projection patter.

If he started 2010 with the tribe that would be a rush
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 19, 2009 2:42 pm

jellis wrote:where show me one guy outside of phillips, Santana could be up by june or july 2010 not to start the year that is the tribes MO and thats not a rush just that is a normal projection patter.

If he started 2010 with the tribe that would be a rush


good grief. I've listed plenty. I'm done. You clearly don't understand the meaning of rushing a player along through the minors.

It's IMPOSSIBLE to say whether or not Santana starting for the Tribe in 2010 on opening day would be rushing him without knowing how he performs this year. Could easily be called up at some point, especially since he's already on the 40-man roster.
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Mon Jan 19, 2009 6:23 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
jellis wrote:where show me one guy outside of phillips, Santana could be up by june or july 2010 not to start the year that is the tribes MO and thats not a rush just that is a normal projection patter.

If he started 2010 with the tribe that would be a rush


good grief. I've listed plenty. I'm done. You clearly don't understand the meaning of rushing a player along through the minors.

It's IMPOSSIBLE to say whether or not Santana starting for the Tribe in 2010 on opening day would be rushing him without knowing how he performs this year. Could easily be called up at some point, especially since he's already on the 40-man roster.



No you dont understand you dont have to spend a full season in every minor league level to not be rushed. You listed plenty till I shot them down and you backed off your points. Wasnt my whole point earlier that its a matter of performance not time and you disagreed with it . You might want to make up your mind before you argue a point
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Re: What now?

Postby jellis » Mon Jan 19, 2009 6:45 pm

you and I will never agree because I dont think you should look at age look at what they do in the minors. Sowers was not rushed he pitched amazing and had nothing left to prove, the issue was the next year he for the first time in his life had to face adversity and people hitting him and he failed at it, that had nothing to do with being rushed at some point everyone in the majors hits a rough patch you recover or you end up out of the league. Asdrubal wasnt rushed he had a full season of excellent production and then was called up, he failed this year because he was out of shape. If you argue its an age then Sizemore should have never been brought up. You probably think david huff should start the year in AAA, even though he has nothing left to prove. The point of the minors is to move players through it to a level where they wont dominate, if they get to AA and still dominate then its time for the majors I dont care if you 28 or 18
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Re: What now?

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Jan 20, 2009 9:55 am

jellis wrote:No you dont understand you dont have to spend a full season in every minor league level to not be rushed. You listed plenty till I shot them down and you backed off your points. Wasnt my whole point earlier that its a matter of performance not time and you disagreed with it . You might want to make up your mind before you argue a point


lol, you didn't shoot anything down, and I never backed off my points (which were right). It's a matter of time in the minors. You can have the greatest minor league season ever, but if you spend almost no time in the minors and get called up, you are being rushed! Rushed means being brought up quickly, has NO bearing on how well you did. Thing is, you don't RUSH guys if they are playing poorly. That makes no sense. You only rush guys when they are performing well in the minors! Good grief
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