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dnosco wrote:The use of Weglarz as an example was flawed. He was our 27th ranked prospect after his draft year hitting about .200 at Burlington. He essentially didn't play the next year. That is INCREDIBLY different from a prospect having a breakout year after having played before but not been as good. Weglarz was ranked higher because he actually PLAYED baseball in 2007. Had he played in 2006 and put up any kind of numbers (even south of his 2007 numbers) he would have been ranked based on his 2006 ranking. The argument is flawed. Anyone who knows the situation has to know that.
Regarding Cain you are stretching it. His stock may have marginally improved but I covered that in my statement. Regarding Escobar, yeah, I forgot him, but his performance before 2008 was great so his 2008 numbers didn't change his ranking THAT much, in my opinion and, even if you sucessfully argue it did, you are talking about a guy who was already highly ranked being any large part at all of a farm system going from 21st to top 10 in baseball. Ridiculous.
Again, this "most people" stuff is pretty interesting, though unsubstantiable. The only way the CC trade looks good is if you invoke this which I consider highly questionable and unsubstantiable given the data. The fact that we have to invoke flawed examples like Weglarz just goes further to show that.
Again, Weglarz example is not flawed at all. He improved his status, just as many of the Brewers players imporved their status. He just did it because he was hurt instead of having so-so years before....but it makes NO difference when ranking a system.
Escobar's stock rose a TON this year. Wasn't a top 100 and now some people have him top 10 in all of baseball. He may not have risen that far within the Brewers system....but his value raised a ton, thus making the Brewers overall sytem better. Consider that this year Escobar surpassed his HR total from his previous FOUR minor league seasons. He also had only once put up an OPS over .700....and had a career best this year as a 21 year old in AA (nearly .800). Showed he's got the speed and possibly the bat to hit leadoff even at the ML level.
I also think you're undervaluing Cain, but that's a matter of opinion so I won't go into that really. I think he'll be playing in CF for them by midseason depending on how they handle Cameron....but we'll see.
Done with this.....in 3-4 years we'll know who made the better trade....
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