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Spring Training Notes and Comments

Talk about the Cleveland Indians, Major League Baseball, and other sports.

Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:48 pm

7foot3 wrote:
go_tribe wrote:Santana looking for a 1 year deal now, time to strike. Rotation of Masterson, Santana, Kluber, Salazar and Zmac is pretty damn good on paper. Santana will be pitching his ass off again looking for the big multi year deal next year



If we're not willing to give up a draft pick for four years of Santana, why would we give it up for one year?

And Edible, S&T's to avoid draft pick compensation would be considered collusion by the league. And you're eligible to get the QO tag only if you are with the same team for the whole season, so as long as he's traded and on a roster by Opening Day, he can get the QO tag.


For a team that is absolutely certain that they must have another ML Arm in order to compete/make the playoffs, signing Ervin Santana makes sense..

Ervin Santana has a 99.9 % chance of signing a major league contract to pitch in a Major League Baseball team's rotation in 2014. There is a 99.9 % chance of him being on a major league roster.. The # 21 draft choice, the pick the Indians would lose by signing Ervin Santana, has about a 1 chance in 6 of ever making it to the major leagues for any length of time..(as a starting pitcher or some other spot) So, the value of the draft pick is MUCH MUCH lower as it provides NO CERTAINTY that the player chosen will ever become anything other than a note in the "Draft Results" of MLB. Ervin Santana is more of a sure thing..

The Indians aren't that team.. & if anyone is going to get a four year extension.. he's already on the squad..
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby go_tribe » Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:49 am

7foot3 wrote:
go_tribe wrote:Santana looking for a 1 year deal now, time to strike. Rotation of Masterson, Santana, Kluber, Salazar and Zmac is pretty damn good on paper. Santana will be pitching his ass off again looking for the big multi year deal next year



If we're not willing to give up a draft pick for four years of Santana, why would we give it up for one year?

And Edible, S&T's to avoid draft pick compensation would be considered collusion by the league. And you're eligible to get the QO tag only if you are with the same team for the whole season, so as long as he's traded and on a roster by Opening Day, he can get the QO tag.


One reason being because we have multiple picks. If he had no comp attached to him we wouldn't do a 4 year deal. The fact that the comp is holding him to a 1 year deal is perfect because us not signing him is less about losing a pick and more about a 4 year deal.

Also, we lose a pick, but we get Santana, which gives us a better chance at repeating the playoffs. That's the goal isn't it? If we're out of the race, we move him at the deadline. Trading him for a prospect is more than likely better than the draft pick. It's a win win situation.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby 7foot3 » Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:45 am

GeronimoSon wrote:For a team that is absolutely certain that they must have another ML Arm in order to compete/make the playoffs, signing Ervin Santana makes sense..

Ervin Santana has a 99.9 % chance of signing a major league contract to pitch in a Major League Baseball team's rotation in 2014. There is a 99.9 % chance of him being on a major league roster.. The # 21 draft choice, the pick the Indians would lose by signing Ervin Santana, has about a 1 chance in 6 of ever making it to the major leagues for any length of time..(as a starting pitcher or some other spot) So, the value of the draft pick is MUCH MUCH lower as it provides NO CERTAINTY that the player chosen will ever become anything other than a note in the "Draft Results" of MLB. Ervin Santana is more of a sure thing..

The Indians aren't that team.. & if anyone is going to get a four year extension.. he's already on the squad..


I already well understood the likelihood of Santana making a 2014 rotation, and the the likelihood of a first round pick making the majors, though that one in six number is laughably wrong. That's for all picks. First round picks obviously hit the majors at a higher rate, 73% from 1987-2008. But that's not the end of the discussion. There's more to "value". The average #16-30 pick actually brings back about $7M to the franchise:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picks

For Santana to equal that in just one year, he'd have to be actually worth +$20M. This is why the Indians aren't giving up a first rounder for one year of Santana. Draft picks are generally great values for teams, free agents are generally terrible values.

And your post still doesn't explain why they would prefer a one year deal to a three or four year deal. If you're confident enough in Santana to give up the draft pick, then you want more than one year of Santana. If you're skeptical of Santana to the point that you don't want to guarantee year two, then you're nuts for giving up a draft pick to get him.

If he had no comp attached to him we wouldn't do a 4 year deal. The fact that the comp is holding him to a 1 year deal is perfect because us not signing him is less about losing a pick and more about a 4 year deal.


Sorry, gotribe, I'm not understanding this at all. And any prospect we'd get for Santana would certainly be worth less than the draft pick. What team is going to give up anything valuable for two months of Santana when they can't put the QO tag on him at the end of the season?
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Prosecutor » Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:07 am

Fox Sports says Santana is choosing between the Orioles and Royals, both of whom are offering a one-year deal in the $13-14 million range.

I think the Indians are happy with what they've seen from Carrasco, Tomlin, and Bauer, to the point where Santana is not being seriously considered. With Masterson, Kluber, McAllister, and Salazar holding down the first four spots in the rotation, why would they give up a first round pick and spend $14 million on the #5 starter when they have much cheaper alternatives in house?
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby go_tribe » Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:24 am

7foot3,

What I'm saying is at a 4 year deal, Cleveland has no interest in bringing in Santana, even if it was straight up without losing a pick. They wouln't sign Ubaldo to deal that long, they probs won't go 4 years with Masterson and they aren't doing it at with Santana.

What gives hope of him being interested is the 1 year deal. I'm saying that the multi year/4 year deal is a greater set back to Cleveland than losing the pick. Losing the pick isn't ideal, but thats not what would hold them back.

Santana on 4 years and giving up pick = 0 interest

Santana on 4 years, not losing pick = 0 interest

Santana on 1 year and losing pick = some interest
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:01 pm

7 foot 3... simply put.. the second half of the draft's first round has a history of a few stud-players but is mostly plagued by poor performance/results from the players chosen. Of those selected, typically, one player in six makes it to the major leagues and accumulates 10 WAR during their career (For each second half draft slot.. 4 to 12 players out of the 49 years of draft history have made a 10+ WAR impact at the ML level) .. So, it's either laugh or cry.. It appears you're choosing the latter because the results are indisputable..

The one year deal: The example give says a team loses a rotation member and needs an immediate arm. Given the cost of FA's and the relative "diminishing returns" on FA performance, one year is all that's needed.. In other words.. if you have a car that has a 20 gallon tank, you don't try to put 80 gallons in.. as by the time the tank needs refilled, there are several other alternatives that will be more economical for you..
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby 7foot3 » Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:49 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:7 foot 3... simply put.. the second half of the draft's first round has a history of a few stud-players but is mostly plagued by poor performance/results from the players chosen. Of those selected, typically, one player in six makes it to the major leagues and accumulates 10 WAR during their career (For each second half draft slot.. 4 to 12 players out of the 49 years of draft history have made a 10+ WAR impact at the ML level) .. So, it's either laugh or cry.. It appears you're choosing the latter because the results are indisputable..

The one year deal: The example give says a team loses a rotation member and needs an immediate arm. Given the cost of FA's and the relative "diminishing returns" on FA performance, one year is all that's needed.. In other words.. if you have a car that has a 20 gallon tank, you don't try to put 80 gallons in.. as by the time the tank needs refilled, there are several other alternatives that will be more economical for you..


Well you've moved the goalposts quite nicely now. What do you think the odds are that Santana provides 10 WAR over the next contract he signs, or even over the rest of his career?

The only indisputable results are that draft picks are great values for a franchise, FA signings are terrible ones. And that's only more true for a small market team like the Indians.

Your example is not useful until the Indians have an immediate need for an arm. Even if someone did go down, they've already amassed some depth.

And gotribe, that last line should read: Santana on 1 year and losing pick = zero interest. The four year part may or may not be a bigger issue than losing the draft pick, but it takes real stupidity or desperation to give up a first round pick for one year of an average to just above average player.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby A.Zajac » Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:59 pm

I wouldn't sign Santana on a one-year deal and lose a pick for that. No thanks. I also wouldn't sign him on a four year deal either. I'd give him two or three years tops... but he's not worth a one year rental and I don't trust him enough for four years.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:16 pm

7foot3 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:7 foot 3... simply put.. the second half of the draft's first round has a history of a few stud-players but is mostly plagued by poor performance/results from the players chosen. Of those selected, typically, one player in six makes it to the major leagues and accumulates 10 WAR during their career (For each second half draft slot.. 4 to 12 players out of the 49 years of draft history have made a 10+ WAR impact at the ML level) .. So, it's either laugh or cry.. It appears you're choosing the latter because the results are indisputable..

The one year deal: The example give says a team loses a rotation member and needs an immediate arm. Given the cost of FA's and the relative "diminishing returns" on FA performance, one year is all that's needed.. In other words.. if you have a car that has a 20 gallon tank, you don't try to put 80 gallons in.. as by the time the tank needs refilled, there are several other alternatives that will be more economical for you..


Well you've moved the goalposts quite nicely now. What do you think the odds are that Santana provides 10 WAR over the next contract he signs, or even over the rest of his career?

The only indisputable results are that draft picks are great values for a franchise, FA signings are terrible ones. And that's only more true for a small market team like the Indians.

Your example is not useful until the Indians have an immediate need for an arm. Even if someone did go down, they've already amassed some depth.

And gotribe, that last line should read: Santana on 1 year and losing pick = zero interest. The four year part may or may not be a bigger issue than losing the draft pick, but it takes real stupidity or desperation to give up a first round pick for one year of an average to just above average player.

Goal posts are stationary..as is my argument on the value of a draft pick/Santana signing/etc

Santana's next contract appears to be set at a one year deal. He should be able to achieve 2.0 to 2.4 WAR. The next deal should be the telling one and dependent upon his performance with this one year deal he is alleged to be signing. If it's four years plus this one year pillow contract, then he could achieve a cumulative 10 WAR before the fourth year of the additional contract begins.

Draft picks have great intangible value as it represents the path to acquire the talent needed to sustain a team's long term goals. Tangible value for a second half of the first round and onward, however, is quite a bit less.

FA signings can define a study on diminishing returns.. An injury to a FA exacerbates the diminishing returns on an accelerated basis..

The depth of the Indians pitching staff wasn't in question.. nor was the signing of Ervin Santana by the Indians. The only Indian that could be signed at this point that would make a difference is Justin Masterson, now that Ubaldo has signed with the Orioles.. This was clearly stated.. and on more than one occasion..
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:26 am

A.Zajac wrote:I wouldn't sign Santana on a one-year deal and lose a pick for that. No thanks. I also wouldn't sign him on a four year deal either. I'd give him two or three years tops... but he's not worth a one year rental and I don't trust him enough for four years.


Mostly agree here. I wouldn't be completely opposed to getting him on a 1-year deal, but $14M just doesn't look like it fits into the budget right now, would put the payroll up over $95M. Do think losing that pick hurts though could always get another one next winter by offering Santana a QO....assuming he doesn't have a repeat of 2012 that is.

Do think losing the draft pick is a lot bigger deal than some are making it out to be. Don't just lose the 21st pick, you lose all that money...money that doesn't have to be used on the 21st pick only, could affect later picks.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby 7foot3 » Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:55 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:Goal posts are stationary..as is my argument on the value of a draft pick/Santana signing/etc


You went from "the pick the Indians would lose by signing Ervin Santana, has about a 1 chance in 6 of ever making it to the major leagues for any length of time"

to "one player in six makes it to the major leagues and accumulates 10 WAR during their career"

Do you not see how that is vastly moving the goalposts?


GeronimoSon wrote:Santana's next contract appears to be set at a one year deal. He should be able to achieve 2.0 to 2.4 WAR. The next deal should be the telling one and dependent upon his performance with this one year deal he is alleged to be signing. If it's four years plus this one year pillow contract, then he could achieve a cumulative 10 WAR before the fourth year of the additional contract begins.


Considering that players are likely to decline as they get older, I'm not sure how you add up a WAR of 2.0-2.4 in the first year, and then three more to 10 WAR. Up through his age 30 season, which should be considered his prime, Santana has averaged 1.8 WAR per 30 starts.

GeronimoSon wrote:Draft picks have great intangible value as it represents the path to acquire the talent needed to sustain a team's long term goals. Tangible value for a second half of the first round and onward, however, is quite a bit less.


Umm, I've already presented the data on this. The tangible value of a second half of the first round pick is $7M in the pocket of the franchise. We're not getting anywhere on this point, so I'd guess this is probably the end of the discussion.

GeronimoSon wrote:nor was the signing of Ervin Santana by the Indians. The only Indian that could be signed at this point that would make a difference is Justin Masterson, now that Ubaldo has signed with the Orioles.. This was clearly stated.. and on more than one occasion..


Not by you, but you're not the only person that is party to this conversation. Edible and gotribe seem to be very interested in the signing of Ervin Santana as a means of making a difference.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:12 pm

Nine starters, six slots (including BP Long Man)....

The # 5 starter for the Indians won't be needed until the second full week.. The Indians schedule puts the 5th starter's first outing on the eve of the Masters (April 9th). One start there, then another off day for the next scheduled start would push the need for the fifth starter to April 26th. A four man rotation (and 8 man pen) with Carrasco as the long man/designated starter on April 9th sounds like it would be the best for other four guys Masterson, Kluber, Tomlin and McAllister). A well defined schedule would probably work.

April 26th in SF is going to require a very interesting decision.. at least I hope so.. By then, the four starters, Masterson, Kluber, Tomlin and McAllister, respectively, will each have three starts under their belts. The fifth starter (Carrasco) and the three other guys (Bauer/Harang/Salazar) could be CHOMPING at the bit to get out of Arizona or Columbus... Ahhhh.. the difficulty of making decisions on March 10th for a March 31st season start.. The usual rule of thumb.. the players make the decisions.. IDK.. we'll see..

I liked seeing Droobs leading off.. he doesn't seem as "jumpy" or, I might be reading that he is truly attempting to get on base via the walk while being able to see as many pitches as possible.. Something to consider if Bourn has any physical issues during the season...
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GhostofTedCox » Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:56 pm

A.Zajac wrote:I wouldn't sign Santana on a one-year deal and lose a pick for that. No thanks. I also wouldn't sign him on a four year deal either. I'd give him two or three years tops... but he's not worth a one year rental and I don't trust him enough for four years.



I believe at present, the Indians have 3 picks before the 2nd round. I would call the Indians drafting ability as spotty (to put it kindly.) Its not likely they draft, sign, and develop 3 good players.

But the Indians are good at finding some FA on the cheap. Adding Santana more than replaces what Ubaldo did last season. Based on the positive pitching results from Goodyear, this would even give the Indians ammunition for a trade.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:18 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:Nine starters, six slots (including BP Long Man)....

The # 5 starter for the Indians won't be needed until the second full week.. The Indians schedule puts the 5th starter's first outing on the eve of the Masters (April 9th). One start there, then another off day for the next scheduled start would push the need for the fifth starter to April 26th. A four man rotation (and 8 man pen) with Carrasco as the long man/designated starter on April 9th sounds like it would be the best for other four guys Masterson, Kluber, Tomlin and McAllister). A well defined schedule would probably work.

April 26th in SF is going to require a very interesting decision.. at least I hope so.. By then, the four starters, Masterson, Kluber, Tomlin and McAllister, respectively, will each have three starts under their belts. The fifth starter (Carrasco) and the three other guys (Bauer/Harang/Salazar) could be CHOMPING at the bit to get out of Arizona or Columbus... Ahhhh.. the difficulty of making decisions on March 10th for a March 31st season start.. The usual rule of thumb.. the players make the decisions.. IDK.. we'll see..

I liked seeing Droobs leading off.. he doesn't seem as "jumpy" or, I might be reading that he is truly attempting to get on base via the walk while being able to see as many pitches as possible.. Something to consider if Bourn has any physical issues during the season...


Unfortunately, think you're off a bit on the rotation schedule....

By my count we will need our 5th starter (barring any rain-outs/snow-outs) on Tuesday, April 8th...not April 9th. We'd also need that 5th starter again long before April 26th as a result. The #5 guy will be needed for Sunday, April 13th and again on Saturday, April 19 and Thursday April 24th (or could be a day sooner each time). Only 2 off days from March 31st thru April 30th...actually a rough April (again though, assuming no postponements which with Cleveland is probably not a good assumption).

For arguments sake, assume no rainouts/snowouts and a rotatoin order of Masterson, Kluber, McAllister, Salazar and Carrasco...here's how March/April would play out (at least the easiest scenario):

Mon, 3/31 @ Oak: Masterson
Tue, 4/1 @ Oak: Kluber
Wed, 4/2 @ Oak: McAllister
Thu, 4/3 OFF DAY
Fri, 4/4 vs Min: Salazar (home opener)
Sat, 4/5 vs Min: Masterson, 4 days rest (normal rest)
Sun, 4/6 vs Min: Kluber, 4 days rest
Mon, 4/7 vs SD: McAllister, 4 days rest
Tue, 4/8 vs SD: Carrasco, 1st start (Salazar would have to go on 3 days rest, not happening in April)
Wed, 4/9 vs SD: Salazar, 4 days rest
Thu, 4/10 @ CWS: Masterson, 4 days rest
Fri, 4/11 @ CWS: Kluber, 4 days rest
Sat, 4/12 @ CWS: McAllister, 4 days rest
Sun, 4/13 @ CWS: Carrasco, 4 days rest
Mon, 4/14 OFF DAY

Order of who slots where could change but barring a postponement you will need your 5th starter 2 times in the first two weeks of the season. Things could get interesting come that Detroit series that starts on the 15th...in theory you could skip Salazar and give him 9 days rest (wouldn't pitch til the 19th) and protect that young arm of his (and couldn't fault the Tribe for doing that IMO). But I'd personally like to see them go with him coming out of that off day as you'd get your three best pitchers in that Detroit series...

Tue, 4/15 @ Det: Salazar, 5 days rest (1 extra)
Wed, 4/16 @ Det: Masterson, 5 days rest
Thu, 4/17 @ Det: Kluber, 5 days rest
Fri, 4/18 vs Tor: McAllister, 5 days rest
Sat, 4/19 vs Tor: Carrasco, 5 days rest
Sun, 4/20 vs Tor: Salazar, 4 days rest (normal)
Mon, 4/21 vs KC: Mastesron, 4 days rest
Tue, 4/22 vs KC: Kluber, 4 days rest
Wed, 4/23 vs KC: McAllister, 4 days rest
Thu, 4/24 vs KC: Carrasco, 4 days rest
Fri, 4/25 @ SF: Salazar, 4 days rest
Sat, 4/26 @ SF: Masterson, 4 days rest
Sun, 4/27 @ SF: Kluber, 4 days rest
Mon, 4/28 @ LAA: McAllister, 4 days rest
Tue, 4/29 @ LAA: Carrasco, 4 days rest
Wed, 4/30 @ LAA: Salazar
Thu, 5/1 OFF DAY

Head into May with the top of your rotation again....


At least this is how I'd like to see it. Scheduled is bound to get screwed up due to weather though and may see a double header in here and need Bauer for a start too.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:22 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:I wouldn't sign Santana on a one-year deal and lose a pick for that. No thanks. I also wouldn't sign him on a four year deal either. I'd give him two or three years tops... but he's not worth a one year rental and I don't trust him enough for four years.



I believe at present, the Indians have 3 picks before the 2nd round. I would call the Indians drafting ability as spotty (to put it kindly.) Its not likely they draft, sign, and develop 3 good players.

But the Indians are good at finding some FA on the cheap. Adding Santana more than replaces what Ubaldo did last season. Based on the positive pitching results from Goodyear, this would even give the Indians ammunition for a trade.


Personally not a fan of the "we draft poorly" argument for giving up draft picks. You have to believe if you're Cleveland you can draft better. Plus having extra picks give you a better chance of landing a star.

Tribe has done well on finding cheap FAs, agree there...but $14M for Santana isn't exactly "cheap". Also not sold Santana replaces Ubaldo. Last season was his best season since 2008...and Ubaldo was actually better than him. I would not mind Santana but at $14M...that's pushing it. Not a big believer in "projections" but for what it's work, ZiPS only projects him as a 1.7 WAR guy and Oliver only has him at 1.4 WAR...that's not worth $14M.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby daingean » Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:57 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
Personally not a fan of the "we draft poorly" argument for giving up draft picks. You have to believe if you're Cleveland you can draft better. Plus having extra picks give you a better chance of landing a star.



Agreed but you have to ask....is it drafting, developing or a bit of both. We have drafted a bit better recently but still we get an F on drafting/developing pitching. Howard and Brown were both premium picks that haven't taken a step forward. Since Grant took over, he's focused on position guys that are middle of the diamond guys (drafting athletes). I don't mind spending 2 and 3 round picks on arms but until we develop a pitcher, spend the ultra premium picks on bats and trade for arms when you can. that strategy can work if you do splurge on resigning your arms to longer term contracts (i.e. Masterson) but right now i feel drafting an arm w/one of our first rounders is a waste of assets.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Mar 11, 2014 2:00 pm

daingean wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
Personally not a fan of the "we draft poorly" argument for giving up draft picks. You have to believe if you're Cleveland you can draft better. Plus having extra picks give you a better chance of landing a star.



Agreed but you have to ask....is it drafting, developing or a bit of both. We have drafted a bit better recently but still we get an F on drafting/developing pitching. Howard and Brown were both premium picks that haven't taken a step forward. Since Grant took over, he's focused on position guys that are middle of the diamond guys (drafting athletes). I don't mind spending 2 and 3 round picks on arms but until we develop a pitcher, spend the ultra premium picks on bats and trade for arms when you can. that strategy can work if you do splurge on resigning your arms to longer term contracts (i.e. Masterson) but right now i feel drafting an arm w/one of our first rounders is a waste of assets.

A bit of both.. For the most part, if a prospect pitcher can throw a 90+ mph FB and has at least a clue about one or more off speed pitches, then it's more dependent upon or about development. If a prospect can throw a 86+ mph FB (but projects to have more!), then it's clearly a fault of BOTH with a possible majority on the draft selection. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear... Getting the right lump of clay to mold is only the start.. Passing over the right lump of clay is a weakness that cannot be tolerated..
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Mar 13, 2014 1:53 pm

Jason Giambi is gonna be out of action for 3-4 weeks with a fractured rib....a rib he fractured nearly a week ago when hit by a pitch.

Pretty much eliminates him from the Opening Day bench it would seem. Similar thing happened last year, probably gonna open on the DL now opening the door for someone else to step up (Morgan, LaHair, Johnson, Frenchy, a catcher).
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby A.Zajac » Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:22 pm

Jose Iglesias out at least four months for the Tigers... hear they'll push to sign Drew.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:54 am

A.Zajac wrote:Jose Iglesias out at least four months for the Tigers... hear they'll push to sign Drew.
:cry

Since the end of the season, the Tigers have now lost their entire infield save for moving Miguel Cabrera from his ill suited spot of 3B to 1B. The Tigers have also lost their closer, one starting pitcher (Fister),their starting LF'er and their primary back up catcher & OF'er (Pena and Garcia). Putting this in numbers... The Tigers have:

Lost: 2500+ AB's, 50+ Home Runs, 275 RBI's, 30+ Starts, & 30 + Saves

They've replace them with Ian Kinsler, Joe Nathan and some internal candidates. So, with nearly 40 % of their roster being turned over, can inconsistency be far behind?..

The Tigers signing of Stephen Drew, would be step backwards. Iglesias hit better than Drew and fielded better than just about anyone not named Simmons at SS in MLB last year.. The Tigers are also getting MUCH MUCH older. Both DH (VMart ) and RF'er (Torii) are no longer spring chickens.. This is a team that could be looking up at the Royals by the time the leaves on the trees begin to change color....

just saying....
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:26 am

GeronimoSon wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:Jose Iglesias out at least four months for the Tigers... hear they'll push to sign Drew.
:cry

Since the end of the season, the Tigers have now lost their entire infield save for moving Miguel Cabrera from his ill suited spot of 3B to 1B. The Tigers have also lost their closer, one starting pitcher (Fister),their starting LF'er and their primary back up catcher & OF'er (Pena and Garcia). Putting this in numbers... The Tigers have:

Lost: 2500+ AB's, 50+ Home Runs, 275 RBI's, 30+ Starts, & 30 + Saves

They've replace them with Ian Kinsler, Joe Nathan and some internal candidates. So, with nearly 40 % of their roster being turned over, can inconsistency be far behind?..

The Tigers signing of Stephen Drew, would be step backwards. Iglesias hit better than Drew and fielded better than just about anyone not named Simmons at SS in MLB last year.. The Tigers are also getting MUCH MUCH older. Both DH (VMart ) and RF'er (Torii) are no longer spring chickens.. This is a team that could be looking up at the Royals by the time the leaves on the trees begin to change color....

just saying....


Drew definitely hit better than Iglesias last year. Better OPS, wBA, wRC+, etc. Iglesias is a better defender though Drew is a good defender at short himself. He'd be an upgrade for them for sure. Plus Drew could in theory slide to 3B once Iglesias is healthy, moving Castellanos back to the OF where he played exclusively last year in the minors. Hunter is a free agent after this season...Cast could replace him in RF.


I think the issue for the Tigers in signing Drew is budget constraints. Their payroll is already well over what it was last year and at it's highest it's ever been. Some people in media seem to think the Tigers will just spend, spend, spend but I don't think their owner has an unlimited budget like some think.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:29 am

Hermie13 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:Jose Iglesias out at least four months for the Tigers... hear they'll push to sign Drew.
:cry

Since the end of the season, the Tigers have now lost their entire infield save for moving Miguel Cabrera from his ill suited spot of 3B to 1B. The Tigers have also lost their closer, one starting pitcher (Fister),their starting LF'er and their primary back up catcher & OF'er (Pena and Garcia). Putting this in numbers... The Tigers have:

Lost: 2500+ AB's, 50+ Home Runs, 275 RBI's, 30+ Starts, & 30 + Saves

They've replace them with Ian Kinsler, Joe Nathan and some internal candidates. So, with nearly 40 % of their roster being turned over, can inconsistency be far behind?..

The Tigers signing of Stephen Drew, would be step backwards. Iglesias hit better than Drew and fielded better than just about anyone not named Simmons at SS in MLB last year.. The Tigers are also getting MUCH MUCH older. Both DH (VMart ) and RF'er (Torii) are no longer spring chickens.. This is a team that could be looking up at the Royals by the time the leaves on the trees begin to change color....

just saying....


Drew definitely hit better than Iglesias last year. Better OPS, wBA, wRC+, etc. Iglesias is a better defender though Drew is a good defender at short himself. He'd be an upgrade for them for sure. Plus Drew could in theory slide to 3B once Iglesias is healthy, moving Castellanos back to the OF where he played exclusively last year in the minors. Hunter is a free agent after this season...Cast could replace him in RF.


I think the issue for the Tigers in signing Drew is budget constraints. Their payroll is already well over what it was last year and at it's highest it's ever been. Some people in media seem to think the Tigers will just spend, spend, spend but I don't think their owner has an unlimited budget like some think.


No.. Drew didn't hit better.. Iglesias hit better.. hit for a higher average.. was on base more.. scored more runs.. played more games and was a better defender.. IDK why you have disagree with every single posting.. Drew has been a shortstop since he was a sperm. He's never EVER played 3B, anywhere. I don't even think he's taken ground balls there.. There is no theoretical anything that supports a move to 3B for Drew.. Additionally, as a LF'er, Castellanos makes an average 3B. He's just too clumsy to be out in wide open spaces. By next season.. Andy Dirks will be back. So will Iglesias. and you'll start hearing about a 22 year old named Stevie Moya.. big rangy athletic outfielder with a BIG arm that looks & plays a lot like the straw-man...
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:42 am

GeronimoSon wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:Jose Iglesias out at least four months for the Tigers... hear they'll push to sign Drew.
:cry

Since the end of the season, the Tigers have now lost their entire infield save for moving Miguel Cabrera from his ill suited spot of 3B to 1B. The Tigers have also lost their closer, one starting pitcher (Fister),their starting LF'er and their primary back up catcher & OF'er (Pena and Garcia). Putting this in numbers... The Tigers have:

Lost: 2500+ AB's, 50+ Home Runs, 275 RBI's, 30+ Starts, & 30 + Saves

They've replace them with Ian Kinsler, Joe Nathan and some internal candidates. So, with nearly 40 % of their roster being turned over, can inconsistency be far behind?..

The Tigers signing of Stephen Drew, would be step backwards. Iglesias hit better than Drew and fielded better than just about anyone not named Simmons at SS in MLB last year.. The Tigers are also getting MUCH MUCH older. Both DH (VMart ) and RF'er (Torii) are no longer spring chickens.. This is a team that could be looking up at the Royals by the time the leaves on the trees begin to change color....

just saying....


Drew definitely hit better than Iglesias last year. Better OPS, wBA, wRC+, etc. Iglesias is a better defender though Drew is a good defender at short himself. He'd be an upgrade for them for sure. Plus Drew could in theory slide to 3B once Iglesias is healthy, moving Castellanos back to the OF where he played exclusively last year in the minors. Hunter is a free agent after this season...Cast could replace him in RF.


I think the issue for the Tigers in signing Drew is budget constraints. Their payroll is already well over what it was last year and at it's highest it's ever been. Some people in media seem to think the Tigers will just spend, spend, spend but I don't think their owner has an unlimited budget like some think.


No.. Drew didn't hit better.. Iglesias hit better.. hit for a higher average.. was on base more.. scored more runs.. played more games and was a better defender.. IDK why you have disagree with every single posting.. Drew has been a shortstop since he was a sperm. He's never EVER played 3B, anywhere. I don't even think he's taken ground balls there.. There is no theoretical anything that supports a move to 3B for Drew.. Additionally, as a LF'er, Castellanos makes an average 3B. He's just too clumsy to be out in wide open spaces. By next season.. Andy Dirks will be back. So will Iglesias. and you'll start hearing about a 22 year old named Stevie Moya.. big rangy athletic outfielder with a BIG arm that looks & plays a lot like the straw-man...


You know it's ok to admit you're wrong sometimes right? No one will think less of you :smile


As far as Drew at 3B. Don't get why you're getting your panties all up in a bunch. This wasn't my idea, it's one many prominent sports writers/baseball people have said is something they see is a very real possibility. Drew and his agent Scott Boras have come out and said Drew will be willing to play positions other than SS. Alex Rodiguez had exactly zero professional innings at 3B before the Yanks moved him there. Are you really acting like a good defensive SS can't move to 3B? It's not an easy move but for someone as talented as Drew it shouldn't be too difficult.

Same goes for Castelllanos in the OF...a position he played exclusively during the minor league season last year. Many baseball people have suggested he could stay in the OF and eventually replace Hunter if the Tigers sign Drew long-term.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:10 pm

Good lord....add Jarrod Parker to the ever growing list of guys heading for Tommy John Surgery. Scheduled to go under the knife for the procedure (2nd time) in about a week, ending his 2014 season before it starts. Big, big blow to the A's.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GhostofTedCox » Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:24 pm

Indians sign Adam Miller to a minor league contract.
Yes, that Adam Miller.
His chances of making it back are close to zero. But maybe he can show some hotshot kids about attitude and opportunity.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Prosecutor » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:01 am

Any word on whether they're negotiating with Jason Knapp?

It's looking like Sizemore is the washed up former Indian they should have signed.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Prosecutor » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:02 am

If it comes down to Blake Wood or CC Lee for the last bullpen spot, who do you like?
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:21 am

Prosecutor wrote:If it comes down to Blake Wood or CC Lee for the last bullpen spot, who do you like?

Wood.. the guy throws bb's.. is a candidate to be a closer.. and isn't a raw/green rookie.. CC Lee, could be the goods.. could make a place in this pen for himself in the future. Some more time at AAA won't help him that much, if at all, but it will help the club, overall..
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:24 am

Prosecutor wrote:Any word on whether they're negotiating with Jason Knapp?

It's looking like Sizemore is the washed up former Indian they should have signed.

pros.. It's nice to see Grady playing.. sad that it's with the Red Sox..

inre Jason Knapp: The Texas Rangers signed free-agent SP Jason Knapp (Indians) to a minor league deal Friday, Feb. 14.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:25 am

Prosecutor wrote:Any word on whether they're negotiating with Jason Knapp?

It's looking like Sizemore is the washed up former Indian they should have signed.

pros.. It's nice to see Grady playing.. sad that it's with the Red Sox..

inre Jason Knapp: The Texas Rangers signed free-agent SP Jason Knapp (Indians) to a minor league deal Friday, Feb. 14.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:08 am

GeronimoSon wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:If it comes down to Blake Wood or CC Lee for the last bullpen spot, who do you like?

Wood.. the guy throws bb's.. is a candidate to be a closer.. and isn't a raw/green rookie.. CC Lee, could be the goods.. could make a place in this pen for himself in the future. Some more time at AAA won't help him that much, if at all, but it will help the club, overall..


Agree on Wood over Lee at this point. Think Atchison is a legit option as well...could be this years' Matt Albers (vet reliever who previously pitched for Francona in Boston).
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby nubballguy » Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:08 pm

GhostofTedCox wrote:Indians sign Adam Miller to a minor league contract.
Yes, that Adam Miller.
His chances of making it back are close to zero. But maybe he can show some hotshot kids about attitude and opportunity.


Hey Ghost, do we know anything about what he's looked like with the Indy league Skeeters? Any way to compare him to what Kazmir was able to do down there?

If he shows enough to get the opportunity and performs successfully (I'm thinking first stop would be Akron) don't you think that would get him back on the map? In other words, won't performance dictate opportunity? Or do you just think there's nothing left there to tap in to?
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby nubballguy » Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:13 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:If it comes down to Blake Wood or CC Lee for the last bullpen spot, who do you like?

Wood.. the guy throws bb's.. is a candidate to be a closer.. and isn't a raw/green rookie.. CC Lee, could be the goods.. could make a place in this pen for himself in the future. Some more time at AAA won't help him that much, if at all, but it will help the club, overall..


Agree on Wood over Lee at this point. Think Atchison is a legit option as well...could be this years' Matt Albers (vet reliever who previously pitched for Francona in Boston).



I like Wood too. No knock on Lee but would love to see former KC hand figure it out and excel with Tribe. In the battle of the pens, an effective Wood could really swing the needle over to the Indians vs. the Royals excellent relief corps. Especially with Pestano looking to rebound and Axford coming through. Granted big ifs but, possible. We shall see...
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GhostofTedCox » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:08 pm

nubballguy wrote:
GhostofTedCox wrote:Indians sign Adam Miller to a minor league contract.
Yes, that Adam Miller.
His chances of making it back are close to zero. But maybe he can show some hotshot kids about attitude and opportunity.


Hey Ghost, do we know anything about what he's looked like with the Indy league Skeeters? Any way to compare him to what Kazmir was able to do down there?

If he shows enough to get the opportunity and performs successfully (I'm thinking first stop would be Akron) don't you think that would get him back on the map? In other words, won't performance dictate opportunity? Or do you just think there's nothing left there to tap in to?


Back in the day, Miller could touch 100. Arm problems moved him to the pen. But after all the finger surgerys, he had to learn to grip and pitch all over. In a previous comeback attempt it was reported, (here on IPI, I think), that he touched 90.
In 2013 he was 4-4 with a 4.79. Kazmir was 3-6 and 5.34 in 64 IP.
But the reality is Miller is now 29 years old. A modern day Roy Hobbs. If there's one area the Indians system is deep, it's probably pitching.

In the end, if he shows he can get people out, he will get a chance.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:01 pm

Roster starting to take shape...

Elliot Johnson won a job recently (David Adams DFAed and lost to the Orioles). Chisenhall has also been informed he's made the team and I'd assume has won the starting 3B job (at least against righties). Nyjer Morgan has made the team too (though haven't seen who is getting the boot for him....Hermmann?). Bourn to the DL made Morgan on the team pretty easy. Pestano also is on the team.

No official word yet but sounds like they may be going with an 8-man pen too....question is does that mean Carrasco in the pen and Tomlin in the rotation? Or is Carrasco in the rotation and Wood and one of Lee/Atchison on the team in addition to the other 6 (Pestano, Axford, Shaw, Allen, Outman, Scrabble)?

And just how long will they go with 8 guys? Giambi probably opens on the DL...but will his stay be long? Same with Bourn as it sounds like he may only miss 4 games (on the DL retroactive to March 21st). Do they just cut Morgan after 4 games? I wouldn't bet on that as he does provide defense and speed off the bench.

Still some big questions left to be answered...
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby El Em » Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:25 pm

As one who was very hopeful about a Masterson extension, I find myself feeling not too put off by the Tribe walking away from a (reported) Masterson offer of 2/35 or 3/51. It would not be a gross overpay for Masty, but it is not a great deal for the Indians either. As opposed to other seasons, I actually think this is a situation where the Indians work something out after the season...Short of a great season by Masterson, the QO will likely suppress his free agent $. I know the man on the street sentiment is that "Dolan is cheap", and that Indians are "already shopping him", but I think neither is true. I believe it is good business to pass on the rumored offers, and that unless the Indians received a staggering trade offer, Masty will be here all season with the QO looming.

If the Indians bumped up his 2014 salary to 13, he might consider another 2-3 years at that sort of (13m) salary...I am sure the Indians would want a option on the last year. With the QO system in place,I think the Reds paid Bailey too much...we shall see if that plays out, and if it has repercussions on the market.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Edible14 » Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:02 am

They'll need to send someone down once Bourn is healthy. I would not be surprised in the slightest if that ended up being Chisenhall. Seems to me like you wouldn't make a 40 man move just to get Morgan on the roster for less than a week. Ditto Elliot Johnson, and Aviles and Raburn going anywhere. Seems like there would be no need for an 8 man pen for the first week either.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Mar 25, 2014 9:08 am

Edible14 wrote:They'll need to send someone down once Bourn is healthy. I would not be surprised in the slightest if that ended up being Chisenhall. Seems to me like you wouldn't make a 40 man move just to get Morgan on the roster for less than a week. Ditto Elliot Johnson, and Aviles and Raburn going anywhere. Seems like there would be no need for an 8 man pen for the first week either.


I would be a bit surprised if it was Chisenhall actually. I know reports on Santana have been positive but not convinced the Tribe is ready to give him more than half the playing time at 3B. And as good as Aviles and Johnson were this spring, don't see them being everyday players at 3B.

I think they drop a bullpen arm when Bourn is ready if they don't want to let Morgan go.


I agree on the 8-man pen...especially when you consider Salazar is gonna be on the team but not pitching the first week. If you really needed an arm to give you 2 innings he could do it. He'll need to throw a simulated game/bullpen session to stay sharp anyways. In a way you're looking at a 9-man pen that first week. Big time overkill IMO, but not something that is all that surprising. I expect things to go like last year though...once the offensive players get healthy we'll see a full 4-man bench and only a 7-man pen like we saw for most of last year. Odd man out may be Wood then?
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Mar 25, 2014 9:10 am

El Em wrote:As one who was very hopeful about a Masterson extension, I find myself feeling not too put off by the Tribe walking away from a (reported) Masterson offer of 2/35 or 3/51. It would not be a gross overpay for Masty, but it is not a great deal for the Indians either. As opposed to other seasons, I actually think this is a situation where the Indians work something out after the season...Short of a great season by Masterson, the QO will likely suppress his free agent $. I know the man on the street sentiment is that "Dolan is cheap", and that Indians are "already shopping him", but I think neither is true. I believe it is good business to pass on the rumored offers, and that unless the Indians received a staggering trade offer, Masty will be here all season with the QO looming.

If the Indians bumped up his 2014 salary to 13, he might consider another 2-3 years at that sort of (13m) salary...I am sure the Indians would want a option on the last year. With the QO system in place,I think the Reds paid Bailey too much...we shall see if that plays out, and if it has repercussions on the market.



Been wondering if this would be a route the Tribe would go as well. They did this with Westbrook (bumped up his 2007 salary by about $2-3M). Could be a way of alleviating some of the payroll constraints in 2015 and beyond. $13M may be a bit much but $11-12M may be doable.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby El Em » Tue Mar 25, 2014 11:08 am

I agree that it is a bullpen arm that will likely go when Bourn comes back, though Morgan's status is not, and should not be especially solid. To the contrary, I believe (and hope) Chis still gets a good bit of time in the early season before there is any notion of sending him down. ..would be due to lengthy poor performance, rather than a numbers game.

I know Giambi brings good intangibles, and came up with a number of clutch hits last season, but I hope he takes his time returning to active duty...no need to rush!
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:46 pm

Well...according to reports, Santana has been named the everyday 3B. But also is named the backup catcher (meaning he has to start there 30-40 times minimum)....

Not sure where this leaves Chiz....DHing? If he's not starting at 3B though I'd rather have seen him in the minors. Perhaps he will be (as some above speculated) the guy sent down when Bourn is ready?
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby El Em » Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:55 pm

Sounds like I am off base regarding Chis, if Santana is getting the bulk of the starts. I am sort of sorry that is the case, but on the plus side it signals that the Tribe/Terry is planning on winning...forsaking a little development opportunity for playing what they see as their most productive lineup right now. I can get behind that.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:32 pm

El Em wrote:Sounds like I am off base regarding Chis, if Santana is getting the bulk of the starts. I am sort of sorry that is the case, but on the plus side it signals that the Tribe/Terry is planning on winning...forsaking a little development opportunity for playing what they see as their most productive lineup right now. I can get behind that.


This is what I don't get though...isn't Chiz in the lineup right now your most productive lineup? Who is your DH against RHP if Santana is at 3B? Is Raburn really gonna play everyday? And even if he does, with Bourn out he may be in the OF against RHP. Chiz is likely your best option to DH now against RHP...guess I just don't see Santana at 3B an upgrade over Chiz. Lineup-wise things don't change, simply the position next to Chiz and Santana's name.

When Bourn is back...guess we do see Raburn playing everyday? Which seems odd since Francona was so against Raburn playing everyday last year (or so it seemed by the lack of playing time he got despite how good he was hitting). Is Morgan gonna DH against RHP when Bourn is back? Elliot Johnson? Giambi when he is back? Chiz was used as a strict platoon in September of last year...and he rose to the challenge.

So again, if we are really going to put our best lineup forward...shouldn't Chiz be in there everyday vs RHP?
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:54 pm

With Bourn out.. the Indians will use Nyger Morgan in CF.. LF is Dr Smooth's every day.. save for the odd game here and there when Mike Aviles gets a LF start. David Murphy sees most of the action in RF.. Raburn gets used like you've said.. w/ about 250 to 350 AB's.. some at DH.. some in RF.. some at 2B.. Tito used him effectively last year.. no reason to change the program..

When Bourn returns.. Nyger is at risk unless he's having a killer season (which is doubtful)..

As far as 3B goes & Santana/Chis goes.. there are about 600 AB's there, Santana should get about 350.. give him another 120 or so behind the plate and 60 to 80 as 1B / DH.. and that gives him his 500 plus full season at bats.. Chisenhall gets to earn his 250 or so at bats plus whatever he can offer w/r to DH.. It's not the time in Chisenhall's career to feel entitled.. it's time for him to step up.. this is the means to the end..

While watching Blake Wood work on Monday (in the pen and on the hill)..you can't help but think.. "..wow.. the Indians have uncovered a diamond in the rough.." he just brings it... Same game.. Carrasco's outing.. was better than the line showed.. in the past.. when he'd give up a string of hard hit balls, some for hits.. some for miscues.. some for outs.. he's get out of sorts and let the inning get away from him.. He is not the same guy...
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Edible14 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:25 pm

They also said Giambi was making the team, though starting on the DL. So that's two guys who will need to be sent down shortly into the season. Probably a bullpen guy and Chis. Since they've said Santana is not platooning and will be the everyday 3B, it seems like it's probably better for Chis to be sent down at this point. Aviles and Johnson can cover backup responsibilities.
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Re: Spring Training Notes and Comments

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:50 pm

Yeah I agree that once Bourn and Giambi are healthy and on the team (which could be within the first week or two) that the likely changes are Chiz to AAA and a bullpen arm removed (IMO it would Wood as he has an option).

Just don't think Chiz can get the at-bats needed on the big league club. When Bourn is back in CF it allows Raburn to DH some against RHP as he hit them well last year and has actually been ok against them in his career. Giambi can DH at times too there. Chiz just won't see any at-bats. Let him play everyday in AAA and be ready in the event of injury or Santana struggling at 3B.

Morgan could get the boot over a bullpen guy, but the Tribe actually went with only 7 bullpen guys more than not last year and just can't imagine the Tribe would cut a guy from the 40-man for Morgan just to then turn around and cut Morgan after two weeks.

Really think this is a reason the Tribe just let Francouer go. While he would have been a good fit while Bourn was out, platooning with Morgan....just doesn't make a ton of sense to cut a guy from the 40-man to then go an dump Frenchy when Bourn is back. Think a similar logic applies to Morgan. He still provides some value as a bench guy. A bit of a Stubbs type...can platoon if needed, has speed, can play all 3 OF spots, and plays solid defense. No guarantee that even when back Bourn will be 100% or even if he is, that the hammy won't go out on him again. Believe Morgan is safe for at least the first couple months, though I very easily could be wrong here (never thought Chiz would make the club and not be the starting 3B).
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