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Decisions that Need to Be Faced

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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Edible14 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:31 am

Hermie13 wrote:Problem is the Tribe isn't getting above average production from those 4 up the middle spots. Yes from catcher and 2B they are but Cabrera has been anything but above average at SS and Bourn has not been above average in CF. I agree a bit that you don't necessarily need a big bat in RF...but the Tribe lacks any big bat in any of their OF spots (when Brantley, Bourn, and Stubbs start). Need at least one big bopper in the mix IMO.


I tend to react negatively to the thought that any team *needs* a "big bopper". I think that's a mentality that fits more with the late 90s/early aughts when baseball was at a big offensive peak. The Giants have won 2 of the last 3 world series without a prototypical slugger. The closest thing they have to a slugger is their catcher, whose career high of 24 HRs is less than Santana's career high of 27. It's a different era of baseball. Perhaps that's not what you're arguing, but I've seen entirely too many people suggest that we need some reincarnation of Jim Thome or Manny Ramirez in order to succeed. We don't.

I'd love a better bat in the lineup. Maybe Morales is the guy we're hoping on, to put in on a rotational basis with Santana, Gomes, Swisher and Stubbs (and maybe Bourn as well). Although if he costs a first round pick and is looking north of $15M, which would both be true if he gets and declines a QO as expected, then I'd pass on him. I think that unless the Indians trade/non-tender Perez or trade Cabrera, they're unlikely to be able to make any big moves, which means ruling out the likes of Morales, Corey Hart, Loney, Pence, and Beltran.

The Indians I think will barely have enough money to give arbitration raises to their guys, and they'll have to increase payroll if they want to resign Smith, Kazmir, Ubaldo or Albers. I'd expect that they'll probably stay away from the big money names given the costs, but I wouldn't be surprised if they made a move or two in the $4-8M range. Kazmir and Smith would be options 1 and 2 on that note. I Juan Uribe would also be a good candidate for that amount of money.

I fully expect the Indians to sign a few guys on flier-type contracts like they handed to Giambi, Raburn and Kazmir. Wilson Betemit, Freddy Sanchez, and Cody Ransom are guys I'd be interested in seeing in Spring Training. They've had success with it, and I while I don't expect them to find another Raburn and another Kazmir, it's not unreasonable to think they can pluck one or two useful pieces. I can imagine Betemit taking over the Giambi role, with Ramirez, Aviles, Raburn and Gomes rounding out the bench/DH spots. That idea does not terrify me.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:41 am

Edible14 wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:Problem is the Tribe isn't getting above average production from those 4 up the middle spots. Yes from catcher and 2B they are but Cabrera has been anything but above average at SS and Bourn has not been above average in CF. I agree a bit that you don't necessarily need a big bat in RF...but the Tribe lacks any big bat in any of their OF spots (when Brantley, Bourn, and Stubbs start). Need at least one big bopper in the mix IMO.


I tend to react negatively to the thought that any team *needs* a "big bopper". I think that's a mentality that fits more with the late 90s/early aughts when baseball was at a big offensive peak. The Giants have won 2 of the last 3 world series without a prototypical slugger. The closest thing they have to a slugger is their catcher, whose career high of 24 HRs is less than Santana's career high of 27. It's a different era of baseball. Perhaps that's not what you're arguing, but I've seen entirely too many people suggest that we need some reincarnation of Jim Thome or Manny Ramirez in order to succeed. We don't.

I'd love a better bat in the lineup. Maybe Morales is the guy we're hoping on, to put in on a rotational basis with Santana, Gomes, Swisher and Stubbs (and maybe Bourn as well). Although if he costs a first round pick and is looking north of $15M, which would both be true if he gets and declines a QO as expected, then I'd pass on him. I think that unless the Indians trade/non-tender Perez or trade Cabrera, they're unlikely to be able to make any big moves, which means ruling out the likes of Morales, Corey Hart, Loney, Pence, and Beltran.

The Indians I think will barely have enough money to give arbitration raises to their guys, and they'll have to increase payroll if they want to resign Smith, Kazmir, Ubaldo or Albers. I'd expect that they'll probably stay away from the big money names given the costs, but I wouldn't be surprised if they made a move or two in the $4-8M range. Kazmir and Smith would be options 1 and 2 on that note. I Juan Uribe would also be a good candidate for that amount of money.

I fully expect the Indians to sign a few guys on flier-type contracts like they handed to Giambi, Raburn and Kazmir. Wilson Betemit, Freddy Sanchez, and Cody Ransom are guys I'd be interested in seeing in Spring Training. They've had success with it, and I while I don't expect them to find another Raburn and another Kazmir, it's not unreasonable to think they can pluck one or two useful pieces. I can imagine Betemit taking over the Giambi role, with Ramirez, Aviles, Raburn and Gomes rounding out the bench/DH spots. That idea does not terrify me.


This isn't a 90s/early 00s thought though. It's been around for 50+ years. Tribe had big boppers in the OF in the 80s (Snyder, Carter) when they were bad and back when they were winning/going to World Series (Doby). Now the amount of power definitely changed in the 90s (agree there), but teams have always wanted power in the OF. Giants haven't had the best offenses, but they have had some power in their OFs when they won their two World Series. In 2010 they got Pat Burrell who slugged over .500 for them. Last year they got Pence who hit 24 HRs on the year. One thing to remember too is their park is much bigger than Cleveland's so can't truly compare power numbers there. That said...

Last year the OFers that played the most were Melky-LF, Pagan-CF, and Pence-RF...they had OPS+s of 136, 120, and 90. Blanco played a lot too...posted an OPS+ of 94.

Tribe's 3 OFers (Brantley, Bourn, Stubbs) have OPS+s of 100, 86, and 87. Obviously shouldn't ignore Raburn who does have a 173 OPS+ but he's been a backup all year and still doesn't have even 250 PAs on the year.

Maybe saying "big bopper" wasn't the right way to say it, but the Tribe absolutely needs more offense from their OF, even if you move Swisher back out there. Tribe is getting below average production from their outfielers plan and simple. Looking at wOBA doesn't make things better. Bourn has a .292 wOBA...that ranks DEAD LAST among all 18 qualified CFers in baseball, and ranks 30th out of 38 with a min of 300 PAs. Michael Brantley has a .311 wOBA...that ranks 13th out of 16 qualified LFers in all of baseball and ranks 28th out of 43 with a min of 300 PAs. Drew Stubbs has a .294 wOBA...that ranks 38th out of 40 RFers in baseball (min 300 PAs). Tribe OF has been pretty terrible this year, one of the worst in all of baseball. Brantley has been good at times and hits well with men on base, hasn't been a problem but when he's your best hitting OFer, you got issues.


I agree with you on Morales. No way do I touch him if he has a qualifying offer attached to him and is looking at $14M or more. I really don't think he declines the offer should he get one. He's been solid but really don't see a team that'd be willing to commit the years and money to him if it means a draft pick too. Maybe a team like Cleveland last winter that has their 1st rounder protected next year (Mets?)

I still prefer a guy like Ibanez as think he'd be cheaper and less years (obviously on years). Would be like a Reynolds signing. Sure could backfire but he has a better track record of late. The Raburn/Kazmir signings were obviously great but hoping for lightning to strike back to back years may be asking much. Plus Raburn being resigned, not sure you need to go out and sign another bench bat similar to him. If you don't trade Cabrera then there really isn't any room for a guy like Betimit unless Raburn is starting somewhere (though I do think AC will be traded). Personally think the Tribe needs to get an established bat capable of getting 400plus PAs. Whether that be thru trade or free agency remains to be seen though.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby nubballguy » Tue Sep 17, 2013 3:31 pm

I recently heard on the radio about Vladimir Balentien breaking the Nippon league HR record with his 57th HR. I know nothing at all about it or him other than that he played for the Reds and Mariners before going out to Japan. Did notice it has him listed as a 29 y/o (so in the prime years of his career) and is an OF, an area we could use an upgrade in power. Of course, I'm sure I'm not the only one who's heard of this, nor would the Indians be the only team that would be interested in bringing him back to the US.
Is he a potential power upgrade that's worth pursuing? Wonder what kind of deal it would take?
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:08 pm

nubballguy wrote:I recently heard on the radio about Vladimir Balentien breaking the Nippon league HR record with his 57th HR. I know nothing at all about it or him other than that he played for the Reds and Mariners before going out to Japan. Did notice it has him listed as a 29 y/o (so in the prime years of his career) and is an OF, an area we could use an upgrade in power. Of course, I'm sure I'm not the only one who's heard of this, nor would the Indians be the only team that would be interested in bringing him back to the US.
Is he a potential power upgrade that's worth pursuing? Wonder what kind of deal it would take?


Minor league deal.

Don't get me wrong, it's an accomplishment what he did, but nothing to get carried away over. Remember Alex Ramirez? Played for the Tribe some back in the 90s. Went to Japan and hit 40 HRs three times (including 49 once). No big league clubs went after him. Akinorki Iwamura hit 44 HRs as a 25 year old and 32 HRs as a 27 year old in Japan...hit 16 career big league HRs. Kosuke Fukudome hit 101 HRs in the 4 seaons prior to coming stateside...hit 42 in 5 big league seasons. Just can't compare the Japanese leagues to the bigs, no matter what some sports writers (and Bobby Valentine) say.

Wouldn't be surprising if he just stays over there. Will make more over there for sure. If he came back to the states I wouldn't hesitate to offer him a minor league deal, but that'd be it.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby nubballguy » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:07 am

Very interesting. Thanks for the analysis Hermie!
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby theshow » Wed Sep 25, 2013 11:24 am

This is kind of a buzzkill question since we are in the thick of a pennant race, however I am a little unclear about compensation after the season for players. When Ubaldo declines his 8M option, and some other team gives him a big pay day, are we going to get compensation? Additionally, if we failed to resign Kazmir, do we get any compensation? How about Joe Smith?
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:29 pm

theshow wrote:This is kind of a buzzkill question since we are in the thick of a pennant race, however I am a little unclear about compensation after the season for players. When Ubaldo declines his 8M option, and some other team gives him a big pay day, are we going to get compensation? Additionally, if we failed to resign Kazmir, do we get any compensation? How about Joe Smith?


Only way you get compensation with the new rules is if you make a qualifying offer to the player and they decline. This year looks like the Qualifying Offer will be for about $14M (slight bump from last winter). Only a couple players got offers last year and same will go for this year. $14M is just a lot to give to a player. Pretty much rules out all relievers from now on (Mariano would have gotten one if he was't retired I'm sure, but that's about it). So we will get nothing for Smith if he leaves. Some may disagree, but I think it's a lock now that the Tribe extends Ubaldo a QO. $14M is a lot obviously but with how he has pitched and the state of the FA pitching market...I think he declines and gets a nice deal, and subsequently nets the Tribe a comp pick at the end of the 1st round.

Kazmir...this will be the interesting one I think. $14M is too much for him, but would 1yr/$10M be that crazy? I don't think so, so why not just risk the extra $4M? I doubt we end up with a comp pick for him as I bet he accepts the offer, but would be a way to guarantee he's around next year. Just cause he accepts doesn't mean you can't work out a 2yr/$20M deal or something along those lines.

So to sum it up (and to easier answer your question)...

Tribe is pretty much guaranteed to get a comp pick for Ubaldo (if he leaves)
Tribe is definitely not getting one for Joe Smith.
And it's a safe bet we will not be getting one on Kazmir either.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby theshow » Wed Sep 25, 2013 2:15 pm

Hermie13 wrote: theshow wrote:This is kind of a buzzkill question since we are in the thick of a pennant race, however I am a little unclear about compensation after the season for players. When Ubaldo declines his 8M option, and some other team gives him a big pay day, are we going to get compensation? Additionally, if we failed to resign Kazmir, do we get any compensation? How about Joe Smith?



Only way you get compensation with the new rules is if you make a qualifying offer to the player and they decline. This year looks like the Qualifying Offer will be for about $14M (slight bump from last winter). Only a couple players got offers last year and same will go for this year. $14M is just a lot to give to a player. Pretty much rules out all relievers from now on (Mariano would have gotten one if he was't retired I'm sure, but that's about it). So we will get nothing for Smith if he leaves. Some may disagree, but I think it's a lock now that the Tribe extends Ubaldo a QO. $14M is a lot obviously but with how he has pitched and the state of the FA pitching market...I think he declines and gets a nice deal, and subsequently nets the Tribe a comp pick at the end of the 1st round.

Kazmir...this will be the interesting one I think. $14M is too much for him, but would 1yr/$10M be that crazy? I don't think so, so why not just risk the extra $4M? I doubt we end up with a comp pick for him as I bet he accepts the offer, but would be a way to guarantee he's around next year. Just cause he accepts doesn't mean you can't work out a 2yr/$20M deal or something along those lines.

So to sum it up (and to easier answer your question)...

Tribe is pretty much guaranteed to get a comp pick for Ubaldo (if he leaves)
Tribe is definitely not getting one for Joe Smith.
And it's a safe bet we will not be getting one on Kazmir either.


Thanks Hermie! I agree we would be crazy not to give Ubaldo a Qualifying offer. I know there was talk of Kazmir taking a slight hometown discount, because he appreciates how the opportunity in Cleveland helped revive his career. I would love Kazmir on a 2 year 18 or so million dollar deal.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby El Em » Wed Sep 25, 2013 6:03 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
theshow wrote:This is kind of a buzzkill question since we are in the thick of a pennant race, however I am a little unclear about compensation after the season for players. When Ubaldo declines his 8M option, and some other team gives him a big pay day, are we going to get compensation? Additionally, if we failed to resign Kazmir, do we get any compensation? How about Joe Smith?


Only way you get compensation with the new rules is if you make a qualifying offer to the player and they decline. This year looks like the Qualifying Offer will be for about $14M (slight bump from last winter). Only a couple players got offers last year and same will go for this year. $14M is just a lot to give to a player. Pretty much rules out all relievers from now on (Mariano would have gotten one if he was't retired I'm sure, but that's about it). So we will get nothing for Smith if he leaves. Some may disagree, but I think it's a lock now that the Tribe extends Ubaldo a QO. $14M is a lot obviously but with how he has pitched and the state of the FA pitching market...I think he declines and gets a nice deal, and subsequently nets the Tribe a comp pick at the end of the 1st round.

Kazmir...this will be the interesting one I think. $14M is too much for him, but would 1yr/$10M be that crazy? I don't think so, so why not just risk the extra $4M? I doubt we end up with a comp pick for him as I bet he accepts the offer, but would be a way to guarantee he's around next year. Just cause he accepts doesn't mean you can't work out a 2yr/$20M deal or something along those lines.

So to sum it up (and to easier answer your question)...

Tribe is pretty much guaranteed to get a comp pick for Ubaldo (if he leaves)
Tribe is definitely not getting one for Joe Smith.
And it's a safe bet we will not be getting one on Kazmir either.


Not that you need affirmation, but I concur with most all the above.
I would not offer Kaz the QO, but would seriously look at offering 2/18 or maybe 2/20...he's still a risk moving forward, but much better upside than many recent FA options.
I hope we keep Smith, but there is only so much loot to go around, and he might get a three year deal that is just too good for hm to pass up. We're the Indians, so we will need to get production from more of our Minor league arms soon.
I too think we must give Ubaldo the QO...he is likely going to get a three year offer from somebody in the 3/30 range...if not, it is still a worthy gamble for us at 1/14.

Certainly it would be a boost if we can make the money work to retain Kaz or Ubaldo for next season, even if I'm hopeful that Bauer has a revelation in the off season. :cool
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Chiefroy » Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:56 am

Not too long ago, the thought of paying Ubaldo 14 million dollars for a single season would've sounded ludicrous. But I agree that making a qualifying offer makes sense. No doubt he'll decline his player option. If he can get a better 1-year deal or something longer, then adios....I'll take the draft pick.

IIRC, his problems with Colorado started when Tulo was given a large contract and one was not offered to him. Whether this contributed to his decline in performance or not, I'm not sure. But his pouting over his contract led to his becoming trade bait. Obviously Colorado made a good choice NOT to offer him a huge long-term deal. If he had pitched in 2011 and 2012 like he has this season, he would be looking at a BIG money deal. Somebody may offer him 3 years, 30 million. But he may be better off in the long run to gamble on himself. Take 1 year at 14 million, be grateful, and then go EARN it. Then see what is offered....might be the last deal he'll ever need.

14 million for Kazmir is not going to happen yet, imo. Not from Cleveland, not from anybody. I think he may come back even better next season, but he needs to show he can put up more quality starts and be consistent. 180-200 innings and sub 4 ERA and then we talk 14 million. I'd offer 1 year, 7 million...maybe 2-years, 15 million.

I'm as much a "pitching first" kind of guy as anyone, I just don't think we should get carried away with these guys. I'd like to re-sign both of them, but if we risk a qualifying offer on Ubaldo and he accepts it, we may not have the cash for Kazmir. If he refuses and signs elsewhere, we make an offer to Kaz. If Kaz signs elsewhere, so be it. My main objective would be getting Masterson signed to a longer deal and freeing up cash at SS and closer. And I wish we could keep Joe Smith, too...but oh well.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Sep 26, 2013 10:01 am

El Em wrote:Not that you need affirmation, but I concur with most all the above.
I would not offer Kaz the QO, but would seriously look at offering 2/18 or maybe 2/20...he's still a risk moving forward, but much better upside than many recent FA options.
I hope we keep Smith, but there is only so much loot to go around, and he might get a three year deal that is just too good for hm to pass up. We're the Indians, so we will need to get production from more of our Minor league arms soon.
I too think we must give Ubaldo the QO...he is likely going to get a three year offer from somebody in the 3/30 range...if not, it is still a worthy gamble for us at 1/14.

Certainly it would be a boost if we can make the money work to retain Kaz or Ubaldo for next season, even if I'm hopeful that Bauer has a revelation in the off season. :cool


I'm on the fence with the QO to Kazmir honestly. My reasoning for saying give it to him...what's better for him...1yr/$14M or 2yr/$20M? Basically with the latter you'd be guaranteeing him $10M in 2014, with the QO $14M. Is that $4M really too much? I do think $14M is too much for Kaz...however....the QO does guarantee Kaz will be back (no way he turns it down as no team would give up a 1st or probably even a 2nd for him). Is the $4-5M overpay worth it to guarantee him back? That's the debate I think....arguments can be made both ways .

I have figured out a payroll next year with Kazmir having a $14M salary...it's doable. Not ideal, but doable. Tribe would have to let Perez go (which I think is a given) and not re-sign Ubaldo or Smith (or Albers, Hill, Myers, Kubel). Would (by my estimates) but the payroll around $88-89M. Higher than this year but not o my god high (Tribe was around $82-83M this year). That is also still including Asdrubal's $10M, which I think is likely to be moved. Also includes a $3.5M arby estimate for Stubbs, which I think can be moved too. Tribe could still get some breathing room to add a modestly priced bat and bullpen arm.

Again, $9-10M for Kaz is definitely better as that $4-5M could be huge (Smith's salary right there), but $14M doesn't kill the Tribe's offseason IMO. Plus...just because he accepts the QO, doesn't mean he will get $14M. You could still work out a 2 year deal or (preferably) a 1 year deal plus vesting option.


For the record too, I'm with ya on Bauer. I think he breaks out next year. We saw pitching specs who were being written off bounce back this year...Teahran in Atlanta for one, Perez in Texas for another. Kluber came out of no where this year too....Bauer is capable...attitude could get in the way though...
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby nubballguy » Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:26 am

I know this is a rather pointless exercise at this point and with the season being fully in the moment but I'm just thinking to next year so thought I'd spit this out:
Masterson
Kluber
McCallister
Salazar
(UJ/Kaz?)
Carrasco
Tomlin (assuming he an Car are out of options)
Rzepsczinski
Hagadone
CC Lee
B Wood
Shaw
Allen (is that one too many pitchers?)
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby BrianM » Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:39 am

nubballguy wrote:I know this is a rather pointless exercise at this point and with the season being fully in the moment but I'm just thinking to next year so thought I'd spit this out:
Masterson
Kluber
McCallister
Salazar
(UJ/Kaz?)
Carrasco
Tomlin (assuming he an Car are out of options)
Rzepsczinski
Hagadone
CC Lee
B Wood
Shaw
Allen (is that one too many pitchers?)


I think we have carried 13 pitchers most of the year do to the versatility of our bench. With Rzepsczinski, I don't know if Hagadone is a sure thing. If another lefty is needed they could turn to Soto or Crockett instead. Guilmet will probably get a very fair crack at making the team out of spring. Lee, Guilmet, Wood, and Hagadone will probably fight for 3 spots unless we lose out and Kazmir/Ubabldo and one of CarCar/Tomlin gets inserted into the rotation.

Now, which one of these Goonies can close?
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby nubballguy » Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:41 am

Sorry, cut myself off there:
I was going to note that for various reasons (mainly cost) players such as Perez (no tears I'm sure) Hill (likewise) Albers (solid but expendable due to age/cost) and Smith (tough one!) won't be back but that opens things up for others that need to fill the pipeline. Pestano I'd like to see if he can regain his form before counting him in as a rostered player. If we fail to retain one of UJ/Kaz, I would be fine with Tomlin as our 5th starter. Considering we went into the '13 season with Myers as our #3, that's a major upgrade to me!
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby nubballguy » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:00 pm

BrianM wrote:
nubballguy wrote:I know this is a rather pointless exercise at this point and with the season being fully in the moment but I'm just thinking to next year so thought I'd spit this out:
Masterson
Kluber
McCallister
Salazar
(UJ/Kaz?)
Carrasco
Tomlin (assuming he an Car are out of options)
Rzepsczinski
Hagadone
CC Lee
B Wood
Shaw
Allen (is that one too many pitchers?)


I think we have carried 13 pitchers most of the year do to the versatility of our bench. With Rzepsczinski, I don't know if Hagadone is a sure thing. If another lefty is needed they could turn to Soto or Crockett instead. Guilmet will probably get a very fair crack at making the team out of spring. Lee, Guilmet, Wood, and Hagadone will probably fight for 3 spots unless we lose out and Kazmir/Ubabldo and one of CarCar/Tomlin gets inserted into the rotation.

Now, which one of these Goonies can close?


Brian, good point on the roster setup for the Tribe this season and how that worked to # of pitchers. As to the lefties, you mention two other potential possibilities but I think they should be "on call" in Columbus while Hagadone HAS to establish himself and hopefully he will. For some reason, I tend to think Guilmet will wind up as trade fodder in some deal. I see Tomlin as first man up in case of a vacant 5th slot and Carrasco as the #6- Jake Westbrook long man turns the corner into reliable starter while Bauer continues to work it out in Columbus.

As for closer role- I think while talented, Wood and Hagadone are just too wild to hold that critical role. Scrabble isn't it either and Carlos I just don't think has the mental side to hold it down. So I think the options are CC, Shaw and Allen clearly. Can't see Lee getting the job straight away and while I've been promoting Shaw since mid-season, everyone would point to Allen I would imagine and maybe it is his time but, as crazy as it sounds, the guy I'd MOST like to see in the role? Salazar. Yup. I think he could be that absolutely lock down closer though clearly you don't turn a prospective FOR starter into a reliever, not even a Mariano Rivera type. Do you???
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:04 pm

nubballguy wrote:I know this is a rather pointless exercise at this point and with the season being fully in the moment but I'm just thinking to next year so thought I'd spit this out:
Masterson
Kluber
McCallister
Salazar
(UJ/Kaz?)
Carrasco
Tomlin (assuming he an Car are out of options)
Rzepsczinski
Hagadone
CC Lee
B Wood
Shaw
Allen (is that one too many pitchers?)


FYI...Josh Tomlin does still have options remaining. I believe he still has all 3 left actually.

Think Pestano is getting written of a bit too soon here. He'll need a good spring but think he makes the club. May be on a short leash though.

I think Hags will be given a fair shot at making this club too. Really hasn't been any worse than Hill this year in the bigs (could argue he's been better). At some point just gotta give him a shot...a real shot, not a week or 2 week trial. Shouldn't be handed a spot though.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby BrianM » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:39 pm

nubballguy wrote:
BrianM wrote:
nubballguy wrote:I know this is a rather pointless exercise at this point and with the season being fully in the moment but I'm just thinking to next year so thought I'd spit this out:
Masterson
Kluber
McCallister
Salazar
(UJ/Kaz?)
Carrasco
Tomlin (assuming he an Car are out of options)
Rzepsczinski
Hagadone
CC Lee
B Wood
Shaw
Allen (is that one too many pitchers?)


I think we have carried 13 pitchers most of the year do to the versatility of our bench. With Rzepsczinski, I don't know if Hagadone is a sure thing. If another lefty is needed they could turn to Soto or Crockett instead. Guilmet will probably get a very fair crack at making the team out of spring. Lee, Guilmet, Wood, and Hagadone will probably fight for 3 spots unless we lose out and Kazmir/Ubabldo and one of CarCar/Tomlin gets inserted into the rotation.

Now, which one of these Goonies can close?


Brian, good point on the roster setup for the Tribe this season and how that worked to # of pitchers. As to the lefties, you mention two other potential possibilities but I think they should be "on call" in Columbus while Hagadone HAS to establish himself and hopefully he will. For some reason, I tend to think Guilmet will wind up as trade fodder in some deal. I see Tomlin as first man up in case of a vacant 5th slot and Carrasco as the #6- Jake Westbrook long man turns the corner into reliable starter while Bauer continues to work it out in Columbus.

As for closer role- I think while talented, Wood and Hagadone are just too wild to hold that critical role. Scrabble isn't it either and Carlos I just don't think has the mental side to hold it down. So I think the options are CC, Shaw and Allen clearly. Can't see Lee getting the job straight away and while I've been promoting Shaw since mid-season, everyone would point to Allen I would imagine and maybe it is his time but, as crazy as it sounds, the guy I'd MOST like to see in the role? Salazar. Yup. I think he could be that absolutely lock down closer though clearly you don't turn a prospective FOR starter into a reliever, not even a Mariano Rivera type. Do you???


Ive thought about Salazar in the Closers role a number of times. If he can start, he needs to start, but the closers role seems to be the most logical spot for him considering his size and injury history. I'm not sure he can maintain his 96mph average fastball velocity for an entire season as a starter and definitely don't think he can sustain it through the life of his contract. However, I'm also not sure he is a guaranteed "shut down" closer. I think he will have his dominant outings, but if there is one thing that has hurt him this year, it has been the long ball. I know he must have a two-seem fastball he mixes in because every once in a while His velocity drops around 92 and there is a little sink to it. But when he is throwing the heater between 97-100, its coming in awfully straight. He generally has very good command, but has shown that he can lose it from time to time and home runs with runners on base would be killer in the ninth.

I'm not saying that he couldn't be a premier closer, but if I could pick a pitcher to fill that role, I would want the guy who can consistently prevent batters from squaring up on the ball, just like Rivera. Strikeouts aren't that important if your giving up the long ball in between out (ask Mad Rage Perez). I think Alex White had the repertoire to be a 9th inning guy. I don't think he changed speeds very well, but he had the hard sinking fastball, hard slider, and the hard Split. He didn't fool a lot of hitters, but it was very hard to square up the ball against him before all his injuries. For now, this is why I like the idea of having Shaw and his cutter coming out for the 9th.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:13 pm

There is no way you go with Salazar in the closers role next year, no way. Maybe in 2-3 years if he struggles as a starter, but even if he only ends up a decent #3, that's way more valuable than a closer. Give me 5-6 innings of Salazar vs 1 any day of the week and twice on Tuesdays.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby nubballguy » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:07 pm

Brian, I get what you say about Salazar being susceptible to the long ball and Hermie, I agree, utilizing Salazar in the relief role deliberately is a misappropriation of talent and he does deserve a slot in the rotation. So realistically, based only on what's currently on hand, Allen and Shaw seem to be the frontrunners for the role. Regardless as to who ultimately seizes the job, I look forward to seeing someone new in the 9th.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby BrianM » Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:57 pm

nubballguy wrote:Brian, I get what you say about Salazar being susceptible to the long ball and Hermie, I agree, utilizing Salazar in the relief role deliberately is a misappropriation of talent and he does deserve a slot in the rotation. So realistically, based only on what's currently on hand, Allen and Shaw seem to be the frontrunners for the role. Regardless as to who ultimately seizes the job, I look forward to seeing someone new in the 9th.


:cool cheers to that sir.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Edible14 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:57 am

I think it's pretty much a lock that Perez is not coming back now. So that leaves Allen and Shaw as the only for-sures from the right-handed side for next year. Scrabble is locked in to one of the lefty spots. Everything else in the bullpen is an open contest. I hope they can find a way to bring back Smith. Reasonable guess is that it'll be Shaw, Allen, Pestano, Carrasco and one other (Tomlin, Lee, Guilmet, Wood all being possibilities, as well as a free agent signing of some sort) as righties, with Ctrl+C and Hagadone/Barnes/free agent as lefties (whoever wins here is realistically just a placeholder for an eventual Crockett promotion).

Your rotation is Masterson/Kluber/Salazar/McAllister/FA (Kazmir?), with Tomlin, Bauer and House providing immediate minor league depth.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:14 am

Edible14 wrote:I think it's pretty much a lock that Perez is not coming back now. So that leaves Allen and Shaw as the only for-sures from the right-handed side for next year. Scrabble is locked in to one of the lefty spots. Everything else in the bullpen is an open contest. I hope they can find a way to bring back Smith. Reasonable guess is that it'll be Shaw, Allen, Pestano, Carrasco and one other (Tomlin, Lee, Guilmet, Wood all being possibilities, as well as a free agent signing of some sort) as righties, with Ctrl+C and Hagadone/Barnes/free agent as lefties (whoever wins here is realistically just a placeholder for an eventual Crockett promotion).

Your rotation is Masterson/Kluber/Salazar/McAllister/FA (Kazmir?), with Tomlin, Bauer and House providing immediate minor league depth.


Agree with most of this but I don't see Tomlin really being considered at all for the bullpen. He's got multiple options left and his value is as inning eating starter. He goes to AAA and works as a starter there and is a depth option. Carrasco I can see in the pen though (out of options).

Think Hags is being written off a bit too early still too but he definitely needs to improve.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Sep 30, 2013 11:22 am

ahhhh....decisions, decisions... hard to argue that there will be some that will have a GINORMOUS effect on the team going into 2014.. (the continuation of the 2013 should have a dramatic and lasting effect on these decisions, so, some or all of the following and above may need to be revisited..).. There are a few things that are going to be pretty much set in stone..

1. Leadership.. from Tito on down.. this is a group that cares to together and shares together.. The only 'reduction' may come from the loss of one of Tito's best.. Santos Jr may become a target for one of a handful of managerial spots that could open up now that the regular season has been completed.. In this regard.. it would not be a huge surprise to see Big G being shown some interest in that regard as well..

2. Pitching..will be come a series of questions and fill in the blanks.. It comes down to the U being given a QO or being extended.. Kazmir being given a QO or being signed to a multi-year contract.. Joe Smith being signed to a new contract.. CP being tendered a contract.. The rest of the staff, near ml staff, etc is deep and talented. There is no reason to make wholesale changes to something that isn't broke.. Standing pat in the face of a deep run could be what Indians fans see.. and want to see. There is no doubt that the Indians making this an "October to remember" will have the biggest effect on this area of the club. In short..if the Indians go deep & CP is 'reasonable' (i.e. wants to stay and will take discount that reflects his capability), then EVERYONE returns.. EVERYONE... and yes.. this is wildly optimistic......

3. Position players.. other than 3rd base. the Indians are about as solid across the board as it gets. Perhaps a better back up catcher if CSan is seeing more time at 1B?. IDK>. not a lot to do here, especially with the kids that are coming at A+ & AA...some of whom would have had a cuppa coffee this fall just to see if they're ready for that HUGE jump.. winning out being the priority sort of put a damper on that..

Thoughts?..
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby go_tribe » Mon Sep 30, 2013 12:43 pm

I think with the history of Cleveland and FOR starters in recent years, a change needs to be made. Hopefully the Tribe has learned from the CC and Lee setbacks that really good pitching doesn't come along often. They have a chance to keep this group together and really give this team a solid window of competing. Ubaldo needs to be kept period
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby nubballguy » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:33 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:ahhhh....decisions, decisions... hard to argue that there will be some that will have a GINORMOUS effect on the team going into 2014.. (the continuation of the 2013 should have a dramatic and lasting effect on these decisions, so, some or all of the following and above may need to be revisited..).. There are a few things that are going to be pretty much set in stone..

1. Leadership.. from Tito on down.. this is a group that cares to together and shares together.. The only 'reduction' may come from the loss of one of Tito's best.. Santos Jr may become a target for one of a handful of managerial spots that could open up now that the regular season has been completed.. In this regard.. it would not be a huge surprise to see Big G being shown some interest in that regard as well..

2. Pitching..will be come a series of questions and fill in the blanks.. It comes down to the U being given a QO or being extended.. Kazmir being given a QO or being signed to a multi-year contract.. Joe Smith being signed to a new contract.. CP being tendered a contract.. The rest of the staff, near ml staff, etc is deep and talented. There is no reason to make wholesale changes to something that isn't broke.. Standing pat in the face of a deep run could be what Indians fans see.. and want to see. There is no doubt that the Indians making this an "October to remember" will have the biggest effect on this area of the club. In short..if the Indians go deep & CP is 'reasonable' (i.e. wants to stay and will take discount that reflects his capability), then EVERYONE returns.. EVERYONE... and yes.. this is wildly optimistic......

3. Position players.. other than 3rd base. the Indians are about as solid across the board as it gets. Perhaps a better back up catcher if CSan is seeing more time at 1B?. IDK>. not a lot to do here, especially with the kids that are coming at A+ & AA...some of whom would have had a cuppa coffee this fall just to see if they're ready for that HUGE jump.. winning out being the priority sort of put a damper on that..

Thoughts?..


My thoughts are that cost constraints have to be taken into consideration. With the increases in contracts to currently signed and returning players for '14 (I believe Bourn's contract was back loaded and thus escalates, not sure if Swisher's does too), the expected increases in arb $ for some and the expected costs to buy out arb years and extend players like Masterson, it seems to me like savings will have to be made with more expensive vets being pushed out and replaced by younger talent in the pipeline. Therefore, I don't see even deserving players like Smith coming back. I especially don't see CP coming back! No way. It's in the team's best interest and his best interest for him to start fresh elsewhere. Not to mention that for a team as cost constrained as the Indians are, spending up to $10 million on a reliever such as he is not a wise appropriation of funds. To say the least!
I think they make a QO on UJ if only for the compensatory draft pick. If he takes it, well then, you've got even more creative cost cutting to come up with. I'd like them to make a run at Kazmir. I believe in him and like his being a lefty. We'll just have to see what the market will be to return him. My guess is it's going to get expensive, most likely too much so unfortunately. But bottom line, even if we lose both UJ and Kaz, we have internal options to fill the void with the losses of even both of them. Not saying I want to, but we can still present a solid rotation with Salazar and (Car/Tomlin) stepping in. Carrasco has to get the shot and I trust he will be given the full opportunity to be the '14 iteration of Kluber. Beyond him, I'll take Tomlin as my team's 5th starter anytime, he's a solid innings eater who will give his team a chance to win every time he's on the mound. Meanwhile, Bauer will hopefully put it together in Columbus while guys like House, Adams and Anderson provide depth.
With the ascendancy of Ramirez, I would feel even more comfortable moving on from AsCab and going with Aviles as a placeholder till Lindor is ready to step up. I believe Chiz gets another, and perhaps final, shot at holding down the job at third base. And I will say that I'd move AsCab only if I got an offer that was compelling in return. Otherwise I'd keep him and maybe even consider sliding him over to 3rd when Lindor arrives if Chiz proves he's not capable of being the team's 3rd baseman.
It's going to be another interesting off-season for CA and the Indians. Let's just hope that it's off for sometime to come!
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Edible14 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 2:08 pm

I'm not sure I'd bring back Perez unless he's willing to take < $5M, which he won't be. The guy has seemed malcontent with the Indians and their fans for the last two years. If you non-tender him, I think he's gone. So how do you replace him?

I'm not a fan of the closer-by-committee, because I think that doing matchups in the 9th when teams are most likely/able to pinch hit players is silly. So going to Smith/Scrabble wouldn't work. I think there are realistically four internal options. Pestano is one of them, but he has to show he's back to form before that happens (and even then, he has splits issues so I don't think he's a good idea for closer). Cody Allen has identical wOBAs versus righties and lefties, but whether or not he's mentally a closer is something we don't really have access to as fans. Shaw has looked good as of late, but he has a pronounced split (OPS difference of 173, wOBA of 62), which is not surprising given his reliance on the slider. Besides, Shaw is arguably more valuable in his 6th/7th inning role, where he often pitches multiple innings effectively.

Carrasco is the interesting one. His career numbers suggest a modest split (39 point wOBA difference), but throughout his career he's been increasing the use of his slider, and given that it's been his most effective pitch to date, you could reasonably expect to see more of it in a closer role (this has also increased his split dramatically, to a career high of 98 point wOBA difference). What's curious is that his fastballs are his *worst* pitches (hitters have an OPS of 900+ against both 4 and 2 seam versions, but this is deceptive in that your fastball is usually the pitch that gets hit hardest because it's the "get one over" pitch). Perhaps moving to the bullpen will allow him to exert more effort and make these pitches better, but that could be said for any of his pitches. Instead, it's arguable that he should be relying more on his cutter (2nd best pitch by wOBA/OPS/WRC+) and changeup (3rd best). Those pitches are usually split-resistant, so if he does that you'd be talking about a guy who could be tough on any hitter. It just depends what kind of mix of pitches he decides to throw once he moves to the bullpen. If he decides he's just going to throw the 4-seamer, 2-seamer and changeup, and occasionally a slider, he's probably a Shaw-type releiver who shouldn't be near the closing role. If he mixes in more cutters and sliders, he has a chance at being a really devastatingly good reliever who should be closing. But it would be strange for a guy to move to the bullpen and mix his pitches *more*.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Bearcatbob » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:28 am

We need a bat. To add a bat to the order and to do so someone who was a starter this year will have to go. It will be interesting to see what happens.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby timdav » Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:16 am

None of us are really happy today, Tribe fans.

The overriding thought came to me this morning is, how incredibly important having a productive, minor league organization is.

You just can't reliably build a championship-caliber major league team primarily through trades & free agency. Risk and cost is too high.

The strength is in numbers: have a high-quality scouting & development department....and heavily invest in young, self-developed talent. Play the numbers. Much easier to do than trades & signing free agents for the core of your team.

Up until about 3 or 4 years ago, the Indians had a mediocre at best record in player development. The Indians are still paying the price for that error in judgement by the Dolans & their front office.

Hopefully the current batch of Indians young players at Carolina & below are stronger than what the system has turned out in the past 10 years.
Last edited by timdav on Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:19 am

timdav wrote:None of us are really happy today, Tribe fans.

The overriding thought came to me this morning is, how incredibly important having a productive, minor league organization is.

You just can't reliably build a championship-caliber major league team primarily through trades & free agency. Risk and cost is too high.

The strength is in numbers: have a high-quality scouting & development department....and heavily invest in young, self-developed talent. Play the numbers. Much easier to do than trades & signing free agents for the core of your team.

Up until about 3 or 4 years ago, the Indians had a mediocre at best record in player development. The Indians are still paying the price for that error in judgement by the Dolans & their front office.


What error in judgement by the Dolans are you talking about??

And why is it that whenever the Tribe loses, it's somehow brought back onto the owner and front office...but when they are winning they get no credit?
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby timdav » Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:26 am

The error in judgement should be obvious: a poor farm system created so many holes at the major league level, the Indians had no choice but to sign free agents and make trades....which is difficult with a limited budget. Up until 3 or 4 seasons ago, this organization's minor league system stunk on their watch. It's their team. They approve the team's business plan during those years. They are paying for that judgement to this day. Hey, it's not like the Indians are the only team with poor minor league systems (up until 3 or 4 seasons ago). The front office did a very good job with what they had to work with...limited resources. You can't fill 4 or 5 key holes with 2 free agent signings. But, this organization realistically isn't championship-caliber....yet. Build through the draft...that's mainly my point.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:44 am

timdav wrote:The error in judgement should be obvious: a poor farm system created so many holes at the major league level, the Indians had no choice but to sign free agents and make trades....which is difficult with a limited budget. Up until 3 or 4 seasons ago, this organization's minor league system stunk on their watch. It's their team. They approve the team's business plan during those years. They are paying for that judgement to this day. Hey, it's not like the Indians are the only team with poor minor league systems (up until 3 or 4 seasons ago). The front office did a very good job with what they had to work with...limited resources. You can't fill 4 or 5 key holes with 2 free agent signings. But, this organization realistically isn't championship-caliber....yet. Build through the draft...that's mainly my point.


If the sentiment being expressed is aiming at both Larry and Paul Dolan as the 'buck stops at their respective desks', then, you're not saying anything new or unique or news worthy. Every year, there are 29 franchises in MLB that have an owner or ownership group that could have / should have / might have made a different decision based on projecting what an 18 or 20 year old kid just coming out of high school or as a draft eligible college kid would become. Suffice is to say, the crystal ball from four and six years ago cannot be changed.. Building a minor league system begins with talent evaluation. To achieve perfection in this inexact discipline is impossible. To achieve a one percent success rate (success being measured by having the player or players drafted & going to the minor leagues where they develop & become part of the winning World Series MLB Team) is phenomenal.

Making a claim after the fact is boorish and fraught with nothing more than hindsight.. If it was easy.. it would have already been done.. Mind you, there are some decisions that could have made a HUGE difference.. There always are..
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:59 am

timdav wrote:The error in judgement should be obvious: a poor farm system created so many holes at the major league level, the Indians had no choice but to sign free agents and make trades....which is difficult with a limited budget. Up until 3 or 4 seasons ago, this organization's minor league system stunk on their watch. It's their team. They approve the team's business plan during those years. They are paying for that judgement to this day. Hey, it's not like the Indians are the only team with poor minor league systems (up until 3 or 4 seasons ago). The front office did a very good job with what they had to work with...limited resources. You can't fill 4 or 5 key holes with 2 free agent signings. But, this organization realistically isn't championship-caliber....yet. Build through the draft...that's mainly my point.


Aren't these two things kind of contradictory?

And how are either of these things Dolan's fault? Unless you're saying he should have fired the entire front office?
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Edible14 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:16 pm

He may be speaking to the Indians' decision over the course of most of the early aughts to be frugal with draft signing bonuses. It's a common complaint - we drafted the "safe" picks like Beau Mills and Trevor Crowe instead of risking more money for bigger upside players (although the Indians did make those kind of picks at times - Sowers comes to mind). The Indians only really started spending heavy on the draft right before it was too late and the rules changed (and the early returns on those drafts aren't bad. 2011's looks like our best draft in quite some time). By comparison, the top spender in the 2007-2011 drafts was Pittsburgh. Granted, they had a lot of high picks to inflate that number. But the Pirates are reaping those rewards this year, and will continue to as Taillon and others ascend to the majors.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:39 pm

..the top spender in the 2007-2011 drafts was Pittsburgh...


hmm... here are the outstanding players / results of the Pirates drafts that are currently playing in the NLDS...

2007 No one

2008 Pedro Alvarez 3B First Round, Jordy Mercer Third Round

2009 No one

2010 No one

2011 Gerritt Cole

Granted, from the 2008 draft, Tanner Scheppers is pitching out of the Rangers bullpen and Robbie Grossman is playing part time for the Twins..and some guys are bouncing between the majors and minors for the Pirates.. There are a number of guys that have been drafted by the Pirates that are in their minor league system that could impact the club next year... or in future years, but, for the most part.. the drafting has been pretty much what Indians & theirfans have seen with their drafts.. a guy here and there.. a special talent that blossoms.. a surprise prospect that overcomes adversity to become special.. There is some star potential for some top picks coming up for the Pirates.. while there has to be a wait and see w/r to several more.. Example.. I think Tyler Glasnow has a chance to be a very good to superb middle rotation ML starter.. some day.. Josh Bell could become a middle of the order bat.. etc.

What this posting basically arrives at is that the Pirates have had some successes .. Yet, even with the highest picks and the most money spent, the rate of success isn't exceptional..
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:37 pm

Interesting note at MLB Tr.. not sure what the prevailing opinion would be.. but, if he's similar to his historical numbers.. he answers the biggest question the Indians have regarding non-resigning players..

Here's the note:

...It has been suggested that the Brewers could trade Ryan Braun, but finding someone willing to take on his baggage and lucrative deal could be tricky. “I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Someone would have to take a big chance and nobody’s doing that on PED guys, especially for that length of contract,” said one exec....


Thoughts?
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:28 am

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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:50 pm



Not bad. Sounds like what a few of us have been saying for weeks now. In order to add to this roster, some cuts/trades are gonna have to be made.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:04 pm

This doesn't really belong here (but didn't think it needed it's own thread either)...but Charles Nagy has been fired as the Diamondbacks pitching coach.

Kinda surprised by this. Sure their staff took a step back but had some bright spots (Corbin). Would love to see Nagy come back to Cleveland as the old "special assistant to the GM" or a minor league pitching instructor.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:53 pm

Hermie13 wrote:This doesn't really belong here (but didn't think it needed it's own thread either)...but Charles Nagy has been fired as the Diamondbacks pitching coach.

Kinda surprised by this. Sure their staff took a step back but had some bright spots (Corbin). Would love to see Nagy come back to Cleveland as the old "special assistant to the GM" or a minor league pitching instructor.


IDK recall.. was Nagy ever part of Tito's staff while in Boston?.. There may be more than a single tie.. Any former tie to Tito has to carry some 'weight' (could be beneficial.. or detrimental..). He also knows more about Shaw, Albers and Bauer than the current pitching staff..

It's a good thought...
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:01 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:This doesn't really belong here (but didn't think it needed it's own thread either)...but Charles Nagy has been fired as the Diamondbacks pitching coach.

Kinda surprised by this. Sure their staff took a step back but had some bright spots (Corbin). Would love to see Nagy come back to Cleveland as the old "special assistant to the GM" or a minor league pitching instructor.


IDK recall.. was Nagy ever part of Tito's staff while in Boston?.. There may be more than a single tie.. Any former tie to Tito has to carry some 'weight' (could be beneficial.. or detrimental..). He also knows more about Shaw, Albers and Bauer than the current pitching staff..

It's a good thought...


I don't think Nagy was ever on staff with Tito. I do recall he served in the minor league system for San Diego and Cleveland (AAA Columbus). I wonder if he would be interested AAA Columbus again or bullpen coach here.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:02 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:This doesn't really belong here (but didn't think it needed it's own thread either)...but Charles Nagy has been fired as the Diamondbacks pitching coach.

Kinda surprised by this. Sure their staff took a step back but had some bright spots (Corbin). Would love to see Nagy come back to Cleveland as the old "special assistant to the GM" or a minor league pitching instructor.


IDK recall.. was Nagy ever part of Tito's staff while in Boston?.. There may be more than a single tie.. Any former tie to Tito has to carry some 'weight' (could be beneficial.. or detrimental..). He also knows more about Shaw, Albers and Bauer than the current pitching staff..

It's a good thought...


I don't recall Nagy ever being in the Red Sox organization honestly.

Would be interesting to hear what his take on Bauer is. May be some issues there from last year or maybe he was a guy that wasn't on board with trading him.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:04 pm

Hermie13 wrote: Would be interesting to hear what his take on Bauer is. May be some issues there from last year or maybe he was a guy that wasn't on board with trading him.


On that I agree. I would love to hear Nagy's thoughts on Bauer.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:37 am

If the U decides to decline a QO & see what a long term FA contract will bring.. how about

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/f ... qus_thread

in his place?
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:00 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:If the U decides to decline a QO & see what a long term FA contract will bring.. how about

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/f ... qus_thread

in his place?


Tim Hudson wouldn't be a bad add on a 1 year deal, but I probably wouldn't go more than that. If Ubaldo leaves, I'd still try and retain Kazmir first. Masterson, Kluber, Kamir, Salazar, and McAllister is a solid 5 so no need for Hudson. Now if both Ubaldo and Kaz leave...then maybe you consider a guy like Hudson.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:17 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:If the U decides to decline a QO & see what a long term FA contract will bring.. how about

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/f ... qus_thread

in his place?


Tim Hudson wouldn't be a bad add on a 1 year deal, but I probably wouldn't go more than that. If Ubaldo leaves, I'd still try and retain Kazmir first. Masterson, Kluber, Kamir, Salazar, and McAllister is a solid 5 so no need for Hudson. Now if both Ubaldo and Kaz leave...then maybe you consider a guy like Hudson.


The article goes on to say that Hudson's projected to sign a one year deal with someone who has a chance to win for around $ 9 MM.. That shouldn't be a number that the Indians should have a problem with...depending on the U and Kaz. BTW..a solid 5 is at least 2 too few.. 3 too few is more likely.. Just looking at the FA's that are being declared and or players who are rumored to be "on the block" There are a lot out there..

Would Johan Santana give the Indians the market for all ML level Santana?.. does that matter?.. FWIW..I'd love to see the Indians make another trade with the Dodgers.. Alex Santana could be a throw in?????...

How about a little David Price?.. no?.. too Price-y for you blood..

Would Max Scherzer maximize the Indians' chances? ( he is clearly in another league..Geez, I hope the Tigers trade him...)

Others?..
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:33 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:If the U decides to decline a QO & see what a long term FA contract will bring.. how about

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/f ... qus_thread

in his place?


Tim Hudson wouldn't be a bad add on a 1 year deal, but I probably wouldn't go more than that. If Ubaldo leaves, I'd still try and retain Kazmir first. Masterson, Kluber, Kamir, Salazar, and McAllister is a solid 5 so no need for Hudson. Now if both Ubaldo and Kaz leave...then maybe you consider a guy like Hudson.


The article goes on to say that Hudson's projected to sign a one year deal with someone who has a chance to win for around $ 9 MM.. That shouldn't be a number that the Indians should have a problem with...depending on the U and Kaz. BTW..a solid 5 is at least 2 too few.. 3 too few is more likely.. Just looking at the FA's that are being declared and or players who are rumored to be "on the block" There are a lot out there..

Would Johan Santana give the Indians the market for all ML level Santana?.. does that matter?.. FWIW..I'd love to see the Indians make another trade with the Dodgers.. Alex Santana could be a throw in?????...

How about a little David Price?.. no?.. too Price-y for you blood..

Would Max Scherzer maximize the Indians' chances? ( he is clearly in another league..Geez, I hope the Tigers trade him...)

Others?..


I don't disagree here...but you still have Bauer, Carrasco, Tomlin and others at AAA/in the pen as options. Those 5 would just be the big league guys. I wouldn't sign a pricey free agent just to add depth. If you added Hudson on top of Kaz...what, you bump McAllister to AAA?

I'm not sure Hudson would view the Indians as the team for him though if he wants to win. Think a team like the Dodgers, Altanta, Washington, etc would be more likely. Not sure he'd switch to the AL though you never know.


Price would be a great add...but at what cost? Lindor would almost certainly be demanded by the Rays plus more. Salary/specs just make him too expensive IMO.

Scherzer...obviously the Tigers won't deal him to us...I think Knobler article was pretty ridiculous in the first place too. Whole article was based off the Scherzer making $20M in 2014 and being too pricey....no way in hell he is making $20M next year. If he gets $15M I'd be shocked. Made less than $7M this year...had an amazing year, but arbitration doesn't work the way Knobler seems to think it does.


At the end of the day, I just don't see the need for the Indians to acquire a starter if they bring back one of Kaz/Ubaldo. They are 5 strong. Sure bring in a depth guy on a cheap deal or something. I'd love to see a guy like Bruce Chen brought in. Can pitch out of the pen or start, plus is a lefty. Great guy to have around.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby BrianM » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:05 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:If the U decides to decline a QO & see what a long term FA contract will bring.. how about

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/f ... qus_thread

in his place?


Tim Hudson wouldn't be a bad add on a 1 year deal, but I probably wouldn't go more than that. If Ubaldo leaves, I'd still try and retain Kazmir first. Masterson, Kluber, Kamir, Salazar, and McAllister is a solid 5 so no need for Hudson. Now if both Ubaldo and Kaz leave...then maybe you consider a guy like Hudson.


The article goes on to say that Hudson's projected to sign a one year deal with someone who has a chance to win for around $ 9 MM.. That shouldn't be a number that the Indians should have a problem with...depending on the U and Kaz. BTW..a solid 5 is at least 2 too few.. 3 too few is more likely.. Just looking at the FA's that are being declared and or players who are rumored to be "on the block" There are a lot out there..

Would Johan Santana give the Indians the market for all ML level Santana?.. does that matter?.. FWIW..I'd love to see the Indians make another trade with the Dodgers.. Alex Santana could be a throw in?????...

How about a little David Price?.. no?.. too Price-y for you blood..

Would Max Scherzer maximize the Indians' chances? ( he is clearly in another league..Geez, I hope the Tigers trade him...)

Others?..


I don't disagree here...but you still have Bauer, Carrasco, Tomlin and others at AAA/in the pen as options. Those 5 would just be the big league guys. I wouldn't sign a pricey free agent just to add depth. If you added Hudson on top of Kaz...what, you bump McAllister to AAA?

I'm not sure Hudson would view the Indians as the team for him though if he wants to win. Think a team like the Dodgers, Altanta, Washington, etc would be more likely. Not sure he'd switch to the AL though you never know.


Price would be a great add...but at what cost? Lindor would almost certainly be demanded by the Rays plus more. Salary/specs just make him too expensive IMO.

Scherzer...obviously the Tigers won't deal him to us...I think Knobler article was pretty ridiculous in the first place too. Whole article was based off the Scherzer making $20M in 2014 and being too pricey....no way in hell he is making $20M next year. If he gets $15M I'd be shocked. Made less than $7M this year...had an amazing year, but arbitration doesn't work the way Knobler seems to think it does.


At the end of the day, I just don't see the need for the Indians to acquire a starter if they bring back one of Kaz/Ubaldo. They are 5 strong. Sure bring in a depth guy on a cheap deal or something. I'd love to see a guy like Bruce Chen brought in. Can pitch out of the pen or start, plus is a lefty. Great guy to have around.


I don't expect us to make any of the type deals this year with our current rotation. Being in the terrible situation we were in last winter with our pitching, we had the opportunity to sign a boatload of guys because they knew they would have a chance at cracking the rotation. It was pretty fun actually. If our rotation was even decent, we probably never would have gotten our hands on Kazmir. This year, I would not expect any of those mid tier type guys to want to go anywhere that did not guarantee them a spot in the rotation, and I don't think any of those guys are obviously better than what we have.

I expect the FO to approach the SP market this winter just like they did at the trade deadline. They won't go after anything unless they see it as a definite upgrade in the rotation, and the guys that can provide that will likely cost to much. Unless someone suffers the same FA fate as Lohse, it will probably be a quiet offseason in regards to starting pitchers.

This is all assuming that we resign Kazmir.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:50 am

Tim Lincecum has turned down a two year offer from the SF Giants and will test the market as a free agent at the conclusion of the 2013 world series.

Any interest in bringing in the Freak?.. It would cost the Indians their first, first round pick (about # 24 overall, depending on free agent signings) in what is shaping up to be a significantly talented draft.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:57 am

GeronimoSon wrote:Tim Lincecum has turned down a two year offer from the SF Giants and will test the market as a free agent at the conclusion of the 2013 world series.

Any interest in bringing in the Freak?.. It would cost the Indians their first, first round pick (about # 24 overall, depending on free agent signings) in what is shaping up to be a significantly talented draft.


Zero interest in bringing him in.

Maybe if he wasn't tied to a draft pick but even then I'd be worried. Hasn't been himself the last few seasons and while he wasn't bad this year, going from the National League (and the park he pitches in) to the American League just doesn't seem like a great recipe for 2014 success to me.
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Re: Decisions that Need to Be Faced

Postby GhostofTedCox » Fri Oct 18, 2013 3:54 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:Tim Lincecum has turned down a two year offer from the SF Giants and will test the market as a free agent at the conclusion of the 2013 world series.

Any interest in bringing in the Freak?.. It would cost the Indians their first, first round pick (about # 24 overall, depending on free agent signings) in what is shaping up to be a significantly talented draft.


Zero interest in bringing him in.

Maybe if he wasn't tied to a draft pick but even then I'd be worried. Hasn't been himself the last few seasons and while he wasn't bad this year, going from the National League (and the park he pitches in) to the American League just doesn't seem like a great recipe for 2014 success to me.


I think losing Ubaldo but gaining Lincecum would be a wash - both in contract dollars, and the draft pick. But it did seem to take Ubaldo about 2 seasons to adjust to the AL. Wouldn't want to do that all over with Lincecum.
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