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2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship team

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2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship team

Postby ironmike » Sat Jan 26, 2013 8:10 pm

The current Indians are coming off a horrendous offensive season. With the off-season additions wanted to compare the Indians projected 2013 line up to our 1995 Indians line up in just 3 critical offensive areas, batting average, runs scored and K-BB.


Batting Average / Runs / K-BB

Catchers:

Santana .252 / 72 / 101-91
Alomar Jr .300 / 32 / 31-25 (injured most of season)

First Base:

Reynolds .221 / 65 / 159-73
Sorrento .235 / 50 / 71-51

Second Base:

Kipnis .257 / 86 / 109-67
Baerga .314 / 87 / 35-31

Shortstop:

Cabrera .270 / 70 / 99-52
Vizquel .266 / 87 / 59-59

Third Base:

Chisenhall .268 / 16 / 27-8
Thome .314 / 92 / 113-97

Designated Hitter

Murray .323 / 68 / 65-39
N/A

Left Field:

Brantley .288 / 63 / 56-53
Belle .317 / 121 / 80-73

Center Field:

Stubbs .213 / 75 / 116-42
Lofton .310 / 93 / 49-40

Right Field:

Swisher .272 / 75 / 141-77
Ramirez .308 / 85 / 112-75

The most glaring overall offensive weakness is easy to spot. Plus, we have major holes
to fill at 3B and DH. The high K-BB ratio of Kipnis, Reynolds, Stubbs, Swisher and Chisenhall
which represents more than 50% of our line up must improve dramatically if the Indians
expect to contend even if they have high HR totals.


In this comparision left off HR totals of the 1995 Indians purposely because it would be no contest.

If Kipnis cuts down on his K's and gets on base more he can climb toward Baerga production.

Stubbs and Lofton no comparision.

Brantley needs to fnd ways to get on base more and score more runs.

We are in dire need of a productive DH. A cast of characters trying to fill the role is just an admission
of a lack of talent. We still need another professional hitter in our batting order to really improve our offense.

Cabrera needs to walk more.

Reynolds cut his K's down last year by 50, needs to continue to improve in this area. The guy only had one way to go.

Santana demonstrates great plate discipline and should be ready to have a big year and a great career. His K-BB ratio is very impressive and he can score 100 runs in a season with a good team surrounding him.

The 1995 Indians also led the AL in ERA so I'm not going there.

For the Indians to contend they need to get on base more often and score more runs any way they can.
It all starts with less K's. Just duck when the front office says home runs are more important than K's, runs
are what win games. It takes the right combination to have offensive balance and that includes walks,
moving runners and good base running which are all key components in the run scoring process.

Bottom line the high whiff totals are very concerning.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GhostofTedCox » Sat Jan 26, 2013 8:45 pm

I don't see any comparison with the 95 Indians at all. At 100-44, the 95 Indians remain one of the most underrated teams of all time. There should be some HOF'ers from that team, and could've been more.

Actually, there might be a closer comparison to the 97 Indians. That team had 3 regulars with over 100 SO's (Thome, Matt Williams, and Manny.)

In the end, I think the 2013 Indians are improved, but won't remind anybody of the A.L. Champs.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby 7foot3 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:40 pm

I know this is Mike, and all the caveats that come with that, but really? Even if we could compare across eras like that, we should gnash our teeth that this offense isn't as talented as maybe the best in team history?

In regards to the era, in 1995, the average AL team has a .771 OPS and scored 5.06 runs a night. In 2012 those numbers were .731 and 4.45. There's been a huge dropoff in offense if we just look at the league numbers. Also, for some reason, Jacobs/Progressive has turned into quite the pitcher's park. In 2012, the Indians were 5th in OPS+ and 8th in wRC+, two offensive measures that are adjusted for the park. Their 100 and 97 marks, respectively, were both right around league average. The offense wasn't great, and won't remind people of championship teams, but to say they were horrendous offensively is not paying attention to everything else that was happening.

The Indians, despite their home park, were still above league average last year in OBP. Sure, getting on base more often is never a negative, but that's not a particular team weakness (like say the rotation or defense). And home runs are more important than K's. Even if we only want to parse specific data out instead of looking at the whole, like you're doing here, I'm not sure why you value K's more than HR's.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2617

The correlation between strikeouts and runs scored is nearly zero.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... he-masses/

Meanwhile, the correlation between HRs and runs scored is pretty strong.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:05 pm

Value a solid walk to K ratio and runs scored. If you notice, in most cases, 1995 Indians K-BB ratio aside from Sorrento were far superior to the 2013 Indians projected line up. And those tighter ratios allowed the 1995 Indians to have far superior run production. If this present Indians team could improve in that area (K-BB) there offensive production would increase significantly.

With that said, our front office is proclaiming it is okay to K if a player hits home runs, not so. The 2013 Indians all except for Santana and Brantley drastically need to improve their K-BB ratios for this team to contend.

Robbie Alomar scored 138 runs for the Tribe in 1999. He K'd 96 times and walked 99 times in almost 700 AB's. In 1996, he scored 132 runs for the Orioles and struck out only 65 times while walking 90 times. Excellent. All that is being pointed out here is the present projected Cleveland Indians line up for 2013 looks like a disaster waiting to happen with the skewed K-BB ratio from the 2012 season.

Good offensive players don't have huge differentials between walks and strike outs. At the moment we do. Huge red flag. Don't want to argue the point, let's just wait until the games start.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:34 pm

Ronnie Cedeno has signed with the St Louis Cardinals on a major league contract. It looks like Jon Mozielak & Chris Antonetti could not find a happy compromise for an Asdrubal trade at this time... The notes do say that Furcal may miss the start of the 2013 season.. so, something odd is going on....we'll see..
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:45 pm

Geronimo, for a good starting pitcher or their top prospect RH pitcher, (his name escapes me) it would be okay to move Cabrera. Play Aviles at SS for 2013 and Lindor is coming fast. We are down the food chain in the AL Central at the moment.

We need more impact players and that includes starting pitching.

Cabrera would flourish with STL, good trade for both teams.

EOM
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:59 pm

In March of 2012, Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs using his ZIPS Projection system projected the Indians to finish in fourth place of the AL Central while scoring 652 runs. The Cleveland Indians scored 667 runs and finished in fourth place in 2012 The latest Fangraphs projection for 2013 has the Indians scoring 761 runs while finishing in third place. A projected increase of over 100 runs with this "flawed" team or this team that is projected to score "only" 94 more runs than they did in 2012, should be a pretty good improvement. Projections, being what they are.. have some value.. but, not a lot.. and should be taken with a grain of salt...

The Cardinals, with Carpenter coming to the end of his contract and Wainwright looking at a long extension and the potential loss of Jake Westbrook to age and/or Jaime Garcia with his should issues makes a trade with the Cardinals somewhat dodgy at present. While the Cardinals could and would obviously find great utility with the acquisition of Asdrubal, their deep pitching prospects can dry up in a hurry if they were to lose three of the four names mentioned.. For that reason, it appears that John Mozielak and the Cardinals are going to KEEP their pitchers.. and try to make a go of it with the trio of Furcal, Kozma and, now, Cedeno. A revisit may be coming down the road, but at present.. a trade with the Cardinals for an impact SP appears to be on a back burner..

The name is Shelby Miller.. I believe...
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:20 pm

7foot3 wrote:I know this is Mike, and all the caveats that come with that, but really? Even if we could compare across eras like that, we should gnash our teeth that this offense isn't as talented as maybe the best in team history?

In regards to the era, in 1995, the average AL team has a .771 OPS and scored 5.06 runs a night. In 2012 those numbers were .731 and 4.45. There's been a huge dropoff in offense if we just look at the league numbers. Also, for some reason, Jacobs/Progressive has turned into quite the pitcher's park. In 2012, the Indians were 5th in OPS+ and 8th in wRC+, two offensive measures that are adjusted for the park. Their 100 and 97 marks, respectively, were both right around league average. The offense wasn't great, and won't remind people of championship teams, but to say they were horrendous offensively is not paying attention to everything else that was happening.

The Indians, despite their home park, were still above league average last year in OBP. Sure, getting on base more often is never a negative, but that's not a particular team weakness (like say the rotation or defense). And home runs are more important than K's. Even if we only want to parse specific data out instead of looking at the whole, like you're doing here, I'm not sure why you value K's more than HR's.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2617

The correlation between strikeouts and runs scored is nearly zero.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... he-masses/

Meanwhile, the correlation between HRs and runs scored is pretty strong.


+1, well said
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:25 pm

1995 team was better offensively than this team....but the pitching staffs had a wider gap IMO.

1995 Indians led the AL in team ERA at 3.83. No other AL team was under 4.30 that year.

The offense of this current tribe team should not be he problem. Pitching looks to be...
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:14 pm

Hermie, you are correct comparing the pitching of the two teams is a far wider gap. Didn't go there for that reason. Same with the home run totals. 2013 Indians could not compete. We won our division by 40 games in 1995.

This 2013 offense for it to be improved enough to contend needs a drastic improvement from Stubbs overall and the addition of another professional bat. Carlos Lee or Jim Thome both would be gambles the Indians might take to fill the DH role on a part time basis. Both have had excellent K-BB ratio in the past. Thome is 42 and Lee is 36. Lee has been spiraling down hill for the past 3 years, not sure if he would agree just to DH and what kind of condition he is in. However, an impact hitter like these guys both were would really help the 2013 Indians. Lee played for the Marlins last year and looked to be out of shape.

Signing either of these guys would still allow for line up flexibility with other regulars taking their turns as a DH to rest from time to time. Not in favor at all of having a DH by committee with unproven tweeners like Federoff or Franscisco. Rayburn has excellent tools to be a fourth outfielder and he's scrappy and can play multiple positions. At times in the past Rayburn was decent. Very good chance to make Indians if he is healthy

There is hope for Stubbs. He has agreed to drop his high leg kick which promotes eye level movement and adopt the toe tap in the batters box. That little adjustment might be just what he needs to start seeing pitches better and the ability to handle breaking and off-speed pitches better. Stubbs has all the physical tools to be special but would not make changes suggested by Red's coaching staff Reds per Walt Jocketty. In other words they gave up on him so maybe the wake up call is sinking in. Let's hope so.

If Stubbs can hit .260 and cut down on his K's and we get another good hitter then we can compete. They have made some improvements, but again, not enough to compete for a division title. What good is it to field a team to start the season that can win the division? Not fair to the fans. They have choices with their entertainment dollars. To make an economic success of the team the Indians ownership need to draw outside of their sphere of diehards. Only winning will accomplish that. They went this far see no reason they can't spend another $5-$10 million and get the job done correctly.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:25 pm

Just curious Iron Mike how would you like to see them spend that $5-10 M? I'll name drop a bit...Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Jim Thome, Travis Hafner, Carlos Lee?

I'd like to see them offer out a few more minor deals to Ryan Theriot, Casey Kotchman, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Carlos Zambrano, Chris Young and Manny Parra.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:42 am

HAFH, not Hafner, but there are other players available who are proven that could be acquired via trade. Lohse? Not sure about him due to his age, pitching back in the AL and the costs involved including draft picks. Agree with Geronimo, we match up good with a few NL teams and could afford to move Cabrera to improve our pitching.

Big problem with this team is lack of our own young talent coming up through the system. Very concerned and not sold on Grant as our farm director. Time will tell.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby adaree » Tue Jan 29, 2013 12:08 pm

I know you made this thread to be just a fun exercise but I'm just wondering...don't you think it might be a little more relevant to compare our 2013 roster to that of say, the 2007 club? Or even 2008 when we were 7th in MLB in Runs Scored? I feel like comparing this club to a team that played in the 90's is a bit misleading, because the run environment has changed so drastically. And maybe instead of looking at what our players did last year, look at what they are projected to do in 2013. I just don't think it makes a lot of sense to think that Chisenhall is going to have that poor of a K/BB ratio simply based on the tiny sample size we saw him in last year. Let's compare the 2008 club, probably the best offense we've had since the 90's, to our projected 2013 lineup based on the Bill James projections:

Again using AVG/R/BB/K ratio

Santana: .261/86/ .90
Martinez: .278/30/.75 (hurt much of the year)

Chisenhall: .262/75/.37
Blake: .289/46/.49 (traded part way through the year, Carroll got majority of playing time after that)

Cabrera: .277/82/.49
Peralta: .276/104/.38

Kipnis: .274/100/.63
Carroll: .277/60/.52 (Cabrera and Barfield got time here too)

Reynolds: .231/85/.40
Garko: .273/61/.52

Brantley: .279/78/.90
Dellucci: .238/41/.32

Stubbs: .246/85/.34
Sizemore: .268/101/.75

Swisher: .256/ 82/ .60
Choo: .309/68/.56

Leaving out DH because in 2008 it was a total mess, and this year we don't know exactly how it'll shake out as far as playing time. Looking at these numbers, we actually stack up pretty well. Obviously we were much stronger in CF but other than that I don't see anywhere that the 2008 was considerably better, and looking at the difference in LF and 2B, that should be an improvement.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby 7foot3 » Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:29 pm

ironmike wrote:Value a solid walk to K ratio and runs scored. If you notice, in most cases, 1995 Indians K-BB ratio aside from Sorrento were far superior to the 2013 Indians projected line up. And those tighter ratios allowed the 1995 Indians to have far superior run production. If this present Indians team could improve in that area (K-BB) there offensive production would increase significantly.

With that said, our front office is proclaiming it is okay to K if a player hits home runs, not so. The 2013 Indians all except for Santana and Brantley drastically need to improve their K-BB ratios for this team to contend.

Robbie Alomar scored 138 runs for the Tribe in 1999. He K'd 96 times and walked 99 times in almost 700 AB's. In 1996, he scored 132 runs for the Orioles and struck out only 65 times while walking 90 times. Excellent. All that is being pointed out here is the present projected Cleveland Indians line up for 2013 looks like a disaster waiting to happen with the skewed K-BB ratio from the 2012 season.

Good offensive players don't have huge differentials between walks and strike outs. At the moment we do. Huge red flag. Don't want to argue the point, let's just wait until the games start.


I'll get suckered in again. I know you'll just respond with the nonsense about bb/k ratio though. Ugh.

I respond with a couple articles on what actually correlates to scoring runs. You just ignore them. How do you square up your obsession over bb-k ratio with the lack of correlation? Of course you don't want to argue the point, because you pulled your opinion out of you know where. And yet you steadfastly clutch on to this rate as it if were be-all, end-all.

And there were other factors that led to the 1995 Indians having superior run protection. I mentioned them. The league was a higher scoring environment, and the park was more friendly to hitters then. You, again, completely ignore what I said. Also, 1999 saw AL teams score 5.2 runs a game, an incredibly high number. A big reason that Alomar scored a lot of runs was because he got to bat near the top of great lineup in a great environment. Yes, he's a clear HoF talent, but you cherry picked some of the best circumstances.

I know, I know, you're going to arrogantly talk past me again, ignoring anything I say to tell me how great your opinions on baseball are. Sure, improving the bb-k ratio won't hurt, but you haven't stumbled over some kind of secret sauce. You're willfully ignoring big parts of the picture here.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:35 pm

ironmike wrote:HAFH, not Hafner, but there are other players available who are proven that could be acquired via trade. Lohse? Not sure about him due to his age, pitching back in the AL and the costs involved including draft picks. Agree with Geronimo, we match up good with a few NL teams and could afford to move Cabrera to improve our pitching.

Big problem with this team is lack of our own young talent coming up through the system. Very concerned and not sold on Grant as our farm director. Time will tell.


I have always been a fan of Travis Hafner, but it's time to move on from him / his type of player...DH only. So I agree completely there.

I've been a proponent of the Tribe making another move for a Kyle Lohse / Michael Bourn type - of course at the right numbers. Ask a lot of teams around MLB if they would sign either at the cost of a third round pk and pool money and I think you'd get an...absolutely! As for keeping them around, that's another story, only IF the Tribe is seriously competing for the AL Central.

Bourn is a professional hitter, solid leadoff man and good defender. Signing him is not a priority but I think they should at least have conversations. Signing Bourn and potentially trading him in July for a cpl B type prospects would go a long way in helping rebuild the farm system. Obviously, landing a cpl of solid prospects is better than picking one.

Lohse could further solidify the rotation. Yes at 34 there are concerns he will wear down or get injured but a short deal say 2 yrs with a vesting option for a 3rd yr could protect the Tribe, but offer Lohse some of the length he reportedly wants (4yrs). The Tribe could even throw out a team option on the fourth yr again offering him the length he wants but the protection the Tribe wants.

As for Brad Grant, I think he's done well. No, not great but he's had a few solid drafts with some big time talents yet to fully develop. The upper levels lack that big league talent but there are certainly a few guys worthwhile moving quickly towards the big leagues. Overall, I'm optimistic where the club is going. Personally, Id like to see the Tribe make a few moves with guys like ACab and CPerez to improve the team now and land a few high level talented arms in return.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:15 pm

Seven Three, not a secret sauce, just a component that has stood the test of time in baseball.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 29, 2013 7:34 pm

7 foot 3.. Don't get your panties in a bunch w/r to Rusty Mike.. he's sort stuck in the mud about his favorite ratio, even more so since Hermie chastised him about what the actual ratio was.. (i.e. not BB to K ratio.. the converse.. and not the shoes). In following Occam's Razor, i.e. the simplest explanation is almost always the most correct, mike has hit on one of the more simplistic approaches to projecting runs, and thereby, wins for the Indians. In selecting this ratio, he's. perhaps, selected the least credible indicator, but, it is a historically accurate indicator, none the less.

Personally, I've been a fan of Bill James' Runs Created stat... that is, the combined number of hits and walks multiplied by total bases, then divided by plate appearances. The issue that this stat removes is the reliance on only partial information (BB's and K's). If you have a player who doesn't walk much.. and makes a lot of contact, Mike's ratio unfairly depicts that player as a good contributor when in reality, he's Jhonny Peralta rolling his wrists over on that curve ball that starts in the middle of the plate and falls down & away, off the plate. Jhonny almost always hits that slow roller to the second baseman.. There's too much uncertainty created by just this ratio, imho.. A speed demon gets four to ten singles by legging it out, thereby raising the runs created stat. Jhonny Peralta's last single he legged out involved the opponents second baseman being hit in the eye by a post Thanksgiving Feast dropping from a seagull.

The Dbax have made it a point to get more and more guys that fit the speed demon profile. The Indians, not so much..They're approaching their runs created targets with the Earl Weaver three run homer and the bullpen mafia holding down the fort.

Which way will be better?.. it all depends on those first six innings.. That said..It should be another interesting season on the north coast.. if for no other reason than.. both methods of scoring runs.. have worked in the past.. Sadly.. when teams try to be one..they usually end up being the other.. <shrugs>...
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby 7foot3 » Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:47 pm

ironmike wrote:Seven Three, not a secret sauce, just a component that has stood the test of time in baseball.



This is a BS response and you know it. You're not even trying to have a discussion.

And Geronimo, no bunches here. I just feel it's important to get the facts out there when such nonsense gets posted.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:46 pm

7foot3 wrote:
ironmike wrote:Seven Three, not a secret sauce, just a component that has stood the test of time in baseball.



This is a BS response and you know it. You're not even trying to have a discussion.

And Geronimo, no bunches here. I just feel it's important to get the facts out there when such nonsense gets posted.

7 foot 3.. it's not really a bs response for him..it's the best he wants to give for now.. He'll think it through and comeback with either an intuitive response or he'll repeat his nonsense.. Betting would be massively in favor a repeat of his previous comments, but, that's how he rolls...

Onto another looney toons point, the "panties in a bunch" comment was uncalled for on my behalf..you have my sincere apology..

So, you don't have a comment on which of the indicators you have a preference in using as it relates to runs scored and wins. hmm.. I would have thought, at the very least, you'd comment to the extent that each of the projections have merit, however simplistic some of them are... Silly me..

Now..here's how this relates to the subject matter of the this thread: Projected Line Up.. as opposed to another Homer/GSon we should trade fantasy / proposal.. The projected lineup starts with an OBP guy, someone with some speed, a table setter.. Who do the Indians want to set the table with?.. Michael Brantley, Drew Stubbs or Jason Kipnis? Who of these three has the best chance to exploit Bill James' Run Created stat and give the Indians their best chance to score a run in the first inning of each game?.

Remember.. take away every stat that you can think of and come to the following conclusion: the team that scores first.. is the one that always has the best chance to win the game.. and it's not even close!!..
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:44 am

If you want to call Al Lopez, one of the very best baseball managers of all time "non-sense" fine by me. I didn't invent this, just passsing it on. Woefully out of practice at trying to change the minds of others and telling them their egos are their own self-made land mines.

Just wait when this line up faces Verlander and the other top pitchers in baseball. Those pitchers and teams with good bullpens will be racking up on average 14-16 K's per game against our Tribe. And don't be surprised if we have a game or two where we whiff 18 times or more. Then we shall see how important it is to have balance between K-BB. A walk is as good as a hit and you gotta get to first base first in order to score runs. How complicated is that? Right now, we might be slightly better than the Twins in our division. Which puts us in the bottom 25% of all teams in baseball. Hardly a contender for 2013 with very few, if any, impact players coming from our system. How could any Tribe fan be happy with that?

Home runs? Joe Carter, Cory Snyder and Mel Hall, remember the year we were picked by SI to win it all? We lost almost 100 games. Heard and seen all this before. Teams with the best balanced offenses wins and that starts with impact players with balanced intangibles. Bottom line is our front office doesn't know how to put a winning team on the field. Their grasping for straws (again) because their jobs could be in jeapordy and would be with any other owner other than Dolan. They have no formula in place for winning, their searching for one. They had one handed to them but Shapiro was sleeping at the wheel and in way over his head.

Many times witnessed all this hype, which is only for one reason, sell tickets. This is not a contending team by a long shot. We are HOPING Stubbs and Reynolds can be productive. We are HOPING our starting pitching can improve. We are HOPING Chisenhall produces. Lot of hoping here. What this team needes this off-season was Swisher and two more, experienced, proven impact position players. We did not get them. We always stop short. Plus, our farm system is not producing. Stubbs has a chance, we shall see. We need two more starting pitchers. We are HOPING McAlister and Carrasco can contribute. We are HOPING Masterson and Jimenez can rebound. We need all of things to exceed our expectations in order for this team to contribute. It rarely happens.

Peace brothers. Respect the fact you are die hard fans, but this ain't the year you will be rewarded. IMO don't even see it on the horizon.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby Rocky55 » Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:42 pm

Don't know why anyone would get upset over Mike's posts. So he's the board curmudgeon, so what? Room for everyone here. Kinda reminds me of my Dad. My Dad as a hitting instructor: "Keep your eye on the ball and time it." Worked too.

Mike's right about everything he says. The team is flawed. Too many K's. Holes in the lineup. The SP's are a huge question mark. Almost everything would have to break right for us to contend. However, we did contend with a worse team last season for more than half of the season and we are looking a whole lot better, so I have hope. Plus: !Tito! Mike's just ignoring the fact that we don't have/won't spend the money needed to do what he thinks needs doing. In a perfect world...

My main question of the day though is: How do you measure intangibles? Because they're not. Tangible.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby adam30 » Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:51 pm

I think this club has a chance to hit every bit as well as they did in 2008, when they were 7th in runs scored and scored over 800 runs. I really don't think our BB:K ratio is going to be bad, not great, but not awful either. And our power production should be 2nd best in the division behind Detroit.

Problem is, our pitching very well could be as bad as it was in 2008, which was a big reason for us being out of the race by midseason.

All in all though, I think we did about as much as we could've hoped for in one offseason. We filled 3 holes in the starting lineup and at least 2 on the bench, and we filled two holes in the starting rotation. Are we relying on Masterson and Jimenez to rebound and Carrasco to be healthy? Yes, absolutely, but we would've been doing that anyways. It's nearly impossible to do everything we did on the offensive side of things AND completely remake a starting rotation all in one offseason.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:31 pm

adam30 wrote:I think this club has a chance to hit every bit as well as they did in 2008, when they were 7th in runs scored and scored over 800 runs. I really don't think our BB:K ratio is going to be bad, not great, but not awful either. And our power production should be 2nd best in the division behind Detroit.

Problem is, our pitching very well could be as bad as it was in 2008, which was a big reason for us being out of the race by midseason.

All in all though, I think we did about as much as we could've hoped for in one offseason. We filled 3 holes in the starting lineup and at least 2 on the bench, and we filled two holes in the starting rotation. Are we relying on Masterson and Jimenez to rebound and Carrasco to be healthy? Yes, absolutely, but we would've been doing that anyways. It's nearly impossible to do everything we did on the offensive side of things AND completely remake a starting rotation all in one offseason.


One more move is still needed.. and the pieces to make that move are here...
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby 7foot3 » Wed Jan 30, 2013 9:04 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
7foot3 wrote:
ironmike wrote:Seven Three, not a secret sauce, just a component that has stood the test of time in baseball.



This is a BS response and you know it. You're not even trying to have a discussion.

And Geronimo, no bunches here. I just feel it's important to get the facts out there when such nonsense gets posted.

7 foot 3.. it's not really a bs response for him..it's the best he wants to give for now.. He'll think it through and comeback with either an intuitive response or he'll repeat his nonsense.. Betting would be massively in favor a repeat of his previous comments, but, that's how he rolls...

Onto another looney toons point, the "panties in a bunch" comment was uncalled for on my behalf..you have my sincere apology..

So, you don't have a comment on which of the indicators you have a preference in using as it relates to runs scored and wins. hmm.. I would have thought, at the very least, you'd comment to the extent that each of the projections have merit, however simplistic some of them are... Silly me..

Now..here's how this relates to the subject matter of the this thread: Projected Line Up.. as opposed to another Homer/GSon we should trade fantasy / proposal.. The projected lineup starts with an OBP guy, someone with some speed, a table setter.. Who do the Indians want to set the table with?.. Michael Brantley, Drew Stubbs or Jason Kipnis? Who of these three has the best chance to exploit Bill James' Run Created stat and give the Indians their best chance to score a run in the first inning of each game?.

Remember.. take away every stat that you can think of and come to the following conclusion: the team that scores first.. is the one that always has the best chance to win the game.. and it's not even close!!..


It is a BS response. He doesn't want to have a discussion, he wants to tell us how wise he is about the game and expect us to fall in line. He gives you his few metrics and doesn't respond to any challenges. The guy who is right just because he tells you so is the one saying others have an ego? Huh?

But don't worry, Mike can add this
Bottom line is our front office doesn't know how to put a winning team on the field. Their grasping for straws (again) because their jobs could be in jeapordy and would be with any other owner other than Dolan. They have no formula in place for winning, their searching for one. They had one handed to them but Shapiro was sleeping at the wheel and in way over his head.


How useful.

As far as the metrics I like? wOBA, wRC+ and OPS+. As I've made clear, I'm a big fan of being able to adjust a guys numbers for the environment he plays in. It was a lot easier to score runs in 1999 than it was in 2011. We have to adjust for that.

As far as the top of the order? I'd go Brantley, Cabrera, Kipnis, Santana against RHP. Against LHP, I'd bump Brantley down to the bottom of the order. I'd be fine with any permutation of Cabrera, Swisher, Stubbs at one and two then.

And in regards to scoring first, obviously a lot depends on how early in that game the first run is scored. But if its in the first inning (which you seem to be planning for), one run swings the odds in your favor by about 10%. Not overwhelming, but an important get.

http://tangotiger.net/innwin2.html
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby adam30 » Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:21 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:One more move is still needed.. and the pieces to make that move are here...


I assume you mean moving Cabrera and/or Perez for pitching. I have been in favor of this type of move all along, but the bottom line is if teams aren't offering what we're looking for, we shouldn't be dealing. Both of those guys will have plenty of trade value at the deadline if we're out of the race. It would be a mistake to move them if we don't love the return we're getting. Wait for somebody to blow us away like what happened in the Choo deal. Closers are usually worth more in season anyways, and if Cabrera has a hot first half like he has the previous two seasons there will be a great market for him. Something tells me the Cardinals aren't going to be happy with their SS situation all season.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:17 am

..Remember.. take away every stat that you can think of and come to the following conclusion: the team that scores first.. is the one that always has the best chance to win the game.. and it's not even close!!.. ..And in regards to scoring first, obviously a lot depends on how early in that game the first run is scored. But if its in the first inning (which you seem to be planning for), one run swings the odds in your favor by about 10%. Not overwhelming, but an important get....


While it may have been inferred that it's the first inning, scoring first in any inning of the game qualifies.. be that the top of the first in an away game to the bottom of the 8th in a home game...

As far as the ego and BS response.. welcome to his world..where the marmalade skies are rainbow.. He's been posting the same less than realistic comments for as long as I can recall.. TBH, there is a very slight amount of merit to the comments..The biggest issue lies with the fact that he only presents half an idea.. i.e.. the Front Office blows, so it needs a new.. but, no indication or naming of front office members that don't blow, unless you consider dead guys.. <shrugs>.. While it might be enticing, Hank Peters isn't coming back from the dead to lead the front office.. Richard Jacobs ledership as owner won't be happening anytime soon.. RIP.. These guys aren't available.. Neither are the ALL of the impact players that have been suggested.. The closest 'projection' that I've seen coming from him is the possibility of Drew Stubbs getting his batting average up over .260, however unlikely that is..

The foundation of his claims are based on unreachable goals. When they're not met, then the "I told you so" follows directly and repugnantly, immediately thereafter.. It's how he rolls.. and rolls.. and rolls.. and rolls..

Adam30: While the Cardinals middle infield situation is, at best, unsettled, the Mariners, Blue Jays and Dodgers may be three other teams that could be trade partners with the Indians.. Chris Antonetti, bless his heart, has made it very clear, the Indians will not take less than a bona fide Shin-soo Choo-like return for any of the remaining trade chips.. Until such time as an offer befitting that level or return is proffered, there will be NO DEAL..
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby 7foot3 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:31 am

GeronimoSon wrote:While it may have been inferred that it's the first inning, scoring first in any inning of the game qualifies.. be that the top of the first in an away game to the bottom of the 8th in a home game...


I inferred the first inning because you mentioned the top of the order. After the first inning, the thing that you should be be far and away most concerned with is getting your best hitters up sooner. That's why I'd be more than happy to see Swisher at that #2 spot.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:07 am

7foot3 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:While it may have been inferred that it's the first inning, scoring first in any inning of the game qualifies.. be that the top of the first in an away game to the bottom of the 8th in a home game...


I inferred the first inning because you mentioned the top of the order. After the first inning, the thing that you should be be far and away most concerned with is getting your best hitters up sooner. That's why I'd be more than happy to see Swisher at that #2 spot.


Earlier in the order gives your best hitter(s) more at bats over a season. Bunching your best hitters gives you the best chance to generate/manufacture a run or more.. This "bunching", btw, takes precedence over the L-R-L-R-L-R balancing..

So, you'd be inclined, against a RHSP to go with Michael Brantley leading off follow by a bunch of switch hitters or:

Brantley LF
Swisher RF
Asdrubal SS
Santana C
Kipnis 2B
Reynolds 1B
Chisenhall 3B
Stubbs CF
McGuiness DH

and get more of the RH hitters against LHSP's?
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:20 am

Congratulations Geronimo you have joined forces with yet another ankle biter. If it makes you feel good so be it, but your insecurities continue to shine through brightly.

Any time, place you'd like to debate issues let me know. The funds go to a charity of choice and we will use the venue to promote Tony's books.

Bring some extra clothes because you'll feel real naked when its over.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:59 pm

ironmike wrote:Congratulations Geronimo you have joined forces with yet another ankle biter. If it makes you feel good so be it, but your insecurities continue to shine through brightly.

Any time, place you'd like to debate issues let me know. The funds go to a charity of choice and we will use the venue to promote Tony's books.

Bring some extra clothes because you'll feel real naked when its over.
SMH.....

Any debate with you will prove to be futile..Your credibility having been emasculated to the extent it has, leaves you with no foundation from which to pontificate.. In short, a debate would be nothing more than you whining and repeating you want the Indians to populate their ranks with DEAD GUYS and UNAVAILABLE GUYS or close facsimiles so as to "SHOW" how the business of baseball should be done in Cleveland. To think that money would be involved only makes your proposal that much more preposterous. Grow up Mike.. Learn a very hard lesson: when you're dealing with your superior, contrition and submission will be the actions you will become accustomed to..
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby 7foot3 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:48 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:Earlier in the order gives your best hitter(s) more at bats over a season. Bunching your best hitters gives you the best chance to generate/manufacture a run or more.. This "bunching", btw, takes precedence over the L-R-L-R-L-R balancing..

So, you'd be inclined, against a RHSP to go with Michael Brantley leading off follow by a bunch of switch hitters or:

Brantley LF
Swisher RF
Asdrubal SS
Santana C
Kipnis 2B
Reynolds 1B
Chisenhall 3B
Stubbs CF
McGuiness DH

and get more of the RH hitters against LHSP's?


I'm fine with the bunching, as long as it is at the very top of the order. And I'm a fan of the balancing. Not worried about this year's lineup in regards to that though.


And of course Mike would resort to tough-guy insults. You won't even debate here. Repeating the same opinion, with little in regards to facts to back it up is not a debate.

With regards to Al Lopez, he was a bright baseball guy, but the game is more than a bit different from when he retired in 1969. He managed for about two months in the lowered mound era, and never with a DH. Teams from the 60s hit about 130 HR a season and struck out less than 6 times per 9. Teams now are hitting 160-170 HR a season and strike out over 7.5 times per 9. Parks have changed, the strike zone has changed, training regimens have changed. It's a different game, and if you're using strategy from the 1960s, you're well outdated.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:10 am

PT Barnum, never underestimate the ignorance of the American public, for sure that never got outdated.
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby ironmike » Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:14 am

Geonimo, which means?

Geronimo, you're the coward. Typical flowery answer another tall tale constructed from the canyon walls of your imagination. You should be a staffer at the Peterman catalog. You could be the person who walks, doubt if you could run, down to the corner of Columbia and 7th Avenue to get coffee at Starbucks for the real writers.

Anytime you want to get out from hiding behind that keyboard let me know. Tony knows how to contact me. I'll be waiting, for a long time right?

Come on Geronimo, let's do it for charity. Bring it on. I'll get Triv over at WTAM to help promote. We can set a live feed via Skype. Get your bio ready and your credentials for a press kit. If you have any. All proceeds to the Boys & Girls Club of Cleveland and, Tony can give free books to the kids too to promote his site and next edition. Come on Geronimo, bring it on.

Here's your chance. I'll give you to Monday, February 4th to respond.

For charity, come on Geronimo.

YJCKR
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby GeronimoSon » Sat Feb 02, 2013 2:36 pm

ironmike wrote:Geonimo, which means?

Geronimo, you're the coward. Typical flowery answer another tall tale constructed from the canyon walls of your imagination. You should be a staffer at the Peterman catalog. You could be the person who walks, doubt if you could run, down to the corner of Columbia and 7th Avenue to get coffee at Starbucks for the real writers.

Anytime you want to get out from hiding behind that keyboard let me know. Tony knows how to contact me. I'll be waiting, for a long time right?

Come on Geronimo, let's do it for charity. Bring it on. I'll get Triv over at WTAM to help promote. We can set a live feed via Skype. Get your bio ready and your credentials for a press kit. If you have any. All proceeds to the Boys & Girls Club of Cleveland and, Tony can give free books to the kids too to promote his site and next edition. Come on Geronimo, bring it on.

Here's your chance. I'll give you to Monday, February 4th to respond.

For charity, come on Geronimo.

YJCKR


You're an idiot..
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Re: 2013 Indians projected line up compared to championship

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 2:43 am

7foot3 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:While it may have been inferred that it's the first inning, scoring first in any inning of the game qualifies.. be that the top of the first in an away game to the bottom of the 8th in a home game...


I inferred the first inning because you mentioned the top of the order. After the first inning, the thing that you should be be far and away most concerned with is getting your best hitters up sooner. That's why I'd be more than happy to see Swisher at that #2 spot.


Would like to see Swisher hitting 2nd as well
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