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Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

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Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Sun Aug 26, 2012 8:20 pm

Tony's feature article today suggests we move Ubaldo Jimenez in the offseason.

Here's a few reasons why we should not ...

1. Our pitching will improve IF we can fix our offense with established professional hitters. Tony is correct when he
wrote the Indians filled their roster with bargain basement players to begin 2012. No starting pitcher in baseball
today could have a good year with this team, none. They would lucky to be .500 including Weaver.

2. Ubaldo has great stuff ... his ball moves, his command can be adjusted / fixed. It will happen.

3. Who could we get to replace him with the limited resources we have?

4. Remember and study the careers of these three ex-Indian starting pitchers -- Luis Tiant, Dennis Martinez and Gaylord
Perry. All were great pitchers who had more than one or two down years early in their careers.

Ubaldo is NOT the Indians problem. No pitching staff can win consistently with no support. Worst, yes the worst, Indians offense I've seen since 1962.

Trade Ubaldo to a team with offensive firepower and a team that doesn't impose the pressure of the entire franchise and he can win again. He's got better than average stuff and is healthy. Get him some run support here, trading him would be a huge mistake, but isn't that what the Indians do? They make poor talent evaluations time after time.

Tony did you have the Indians taking Pomeranz over Sale in the draft or did you just report what you were told?
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ClevelandBlues » Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:33 pm

Except Ubaldo is the problem. I agree that he still has good stuff, but he has been one of the worst starters in baseball. The offense is mediocre, but they are in the middle of the pack as a team in most offensive categories. I am sure a lot of teams out there would love to have the likes of Choo, Cabrera, Santana and Kipnis. Of the 97 starting pitchers who have enough innings to qualify, Ubaldo ranks the following:

era-94th
opposing ops-93rd
opposing obp-96th
opposing ba-80th
opposing slg-85th
k/bb-92nd
whip-96th
walks-3rd
losses-3rd

The only pitchers in baseball having a worse year than Ubaldo are Derek Lowe and Jeremy Guthrie. It might be worthwhile to trade him while he still has some value. There is a chance he could turn it around, but if he keeps pitching like he has I could also see the Atlantic League in his future in a few years. A journeyman minor leaguer could give us pretty much the same performance that Ubaldo has been giving us.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby Edible14 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 3:48 am

I've been thinking that perhaps the AL/NL distinction is bigger than I previously thought. In 2011, Ubaldo was an above average pitcher... in Colorado. In Cleveland, he instantly became a replacement player or worse. And that continued this year. And supposedly he's much happier in Cleveland. I'm thinking that either that's because Coors is somehow a good ballpark for him (and he does actually have better numbers there), or it's because the NL is a much more pitcher-friendly league. Could also help explain why Derek Lowe regressed so mightily (though age is most certainly also a factor there).

The problem I see is that Jimenez isn't likely to help this team in any way next year. If he continues to be awful, and it's likely he will, he won't have trade value and he'll just continue to take up starts that could be going to guys that might be here in 2014/15/16. Even if, by some miracle, he rights himself into a suitable #3 starter... he'll be taking up a significant portion of the available payroll next year to be... maybe slightly better than Jeanmar Gomez? If we're committing to scrapping contending plans next year, keeping him around makes no sense. If you're looking to contend... then we need to free up money to take shots on guys who are better bets. Jimenez at this point is a long shot to get better.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby indians1 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:35 am

The indians have had over a year to fix ubaldo and he is even worse now than he was in colorado. His velocity is down. Think about the trade. The indians gave up their top 2 pitching prospects for a guy that everybody knew needed fixing. Think about that. What team does that? What team trades prospects with great value for a guy not ready to help the team right away?

The excuse about offense is just an excuse. Good pitchers always have years with bad run support. Remember kevin milwood when he was here. He had horrible run support in 2005 and had one of the best ERA's.

Good pitchers find ways to keep their team in games and right now our pitchers suck. Our rotation is made up of a bunch of 3's, 4's and 5's. Masterson is a #3 pitcher on a good team not an ace.

Our situation is as bad as it has been in years. This organization is on the brink of being irrelevant again and going back to the pre 90's days.

the dolans have to make big moves which means firing the FO.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:39 am

Not arguing he has been bad overall, just saying he can bounce back because of his stuff. Location is his problem and that can be fixed. Yes, they have been trying, but as long as he's willing to work at it, things will eventually click provided there are no arm issues. Possibly the people trying to fix him aren't of the highest quality?

Indians14 wrote, This organization is on the brink of being irrelevant again and going back to the pre 90's days.

Believe we are already there.

How many here believe the Giants will trade Tim Lincecum this off-season? At the moment he's 7-14 with a 5+ ERA.

Similar situation with Ubaldo.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:00 pm

ironmike wrote:Tony's feature article today suggests we move Ubaldo Jimenez in the offseason.

Here's a few reasons why we should not ...

1. Our pitching will improve IF we can fix our offense with established professional hitters. Tony is correct when he
wrote the Indians filled their roster with bargain basement players to begin 2012. No starting pitcher in baseball
today could have a good year with this team, none. They would lucky to be .500 including Weaver.


This part is pretty laughable.

I guess none of the pitchers on the Oakland A's staff could be .500 guys here...I mean, their offense has only been worse than ours this year...

Rays have outscored us...by 14 runs. I'd bet most of their rotation could be .500 on this team. Not that pitcher recrods mean anything...
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby Rocky55 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:16 pm

ironmike wrote:Not arguing he has been bad overall, just saying he can bounce back because of his stuff. Location is his problem and that can be fixed. Yes, they have been trying, but as long as he's willing to work at it, things will eventually click provided there are no arm issues. Possibly the people trying to fix him aren't of the highest quality?

Indians14 wrote, This organization is on the brink of being irrelevant again and going back to the pre 90's days.

Believe we are already there.

How many here believe the Giants will trade Tim Lincecum this off-season? At the moment he's 7-14 with a 5+ ERA.

Similar situation with Ubaldo.

B-Pro's John Perrotto on what a couple of un-named ML scouts told him about Ubaldo:

"It seems like most of the time he wants to be anywhere in the world but on the mound. He doesn't give 100 percent very often. He's become an embarassment to himself with his lack of focus and effort."

Doesn't sound like he is in fact "willing to work at it...". That's a deal breaker for me. If he can't put out the effort with the amount of money that he's making, the sooner we dump him the better.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby Edible14 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:20 am

ironmike wrote:How many here believe the Giants will trade Tim Lincecum this off-season? At the moment he's 7-14 with a 5+ ERA.

Similar situation with Ubaldo.


Those two are not entirely similar situations. Lincecum has had ONE bad year where he still has peripherals and advanced stats that suggest he's not quite as bad as his surface stats. Ubaldo has had 2 consecutive years of significant decline. Also, Lincecum is making $22M next year no matter what, so it's not like there's going to be lots of suitors. Ubaldo, on the other hand, has virtually nothing positive in his favor. His surface stats are bad, his advanced/peripherals just confirm that news, scouts say he doesn't have it, velocity trackers say he doesn't have it, just about every baseball person in the universe right now says Jimenez is bad and unlikely to get better.

There's a long list of pitchers with "good stuff" who end up being hacks. Why should Ubaldo be any different?
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby daingean » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:04 am

Ubaldo can rebound. He does have the stuff. The big question is "Is it worth a $4.75 mil gamble ($5.75 -$1 to decline option)? I think he's got 1 more month to show off his skills. It might be worthwhile to pursue a decline and resign at a lower amount.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:14 am

Rocky55, those scouts could be right. Just seen lots of guys from the past have great years, fall off and then mature and find it again. Tiant, Gaylord, Dennis Martinez and there are to many more to name. What I'm saying for whay his option costs next year, it is worth the gamble. Who we gonna replace him with? Jason Johnson? Another Mark Shapiro innings eater? We don't need innings eaters, we need wins. Just another BS strategy Shapiro came up with to cover up and smooth over his incompetence. Most MLB pitchers would feel the same Ubaldo does trying to win with no offense. He is in a funk, so is Masterson. Like Rick Manning said last nite, our pitchers gave up 8 runs to the Yankees in 3 games, we should have won 2 out of 3. Can't expect pitchers to hold the teams to 3 runs and less every single game. His and Masterson's command issues are coming from trying to be to perfect because they know they can't make a mistake - game over. Lot of truth in that.

Put Ubaldo and Masterson on winning teams and I'm betting they produce. Keep them both and rebuild the offense and it is going to take good talent evalution from a GM and money. If not, then the pitching won't improve either because the lack confidence in their teammates. Ubaldo pitched lousy games this year, but some very good ones too. I'd be very careful about giving up on him, very careful. His stuff is good, the situation he's in is not.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby Prosecutor » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:07 am

Ubaldo hasn't pitched well in over two years. He's 94th out of 97 in ERA. He sucks, period, according to the numbers and according to the scouts. And it's not because of the offense; Masterson had a 3.21 ERA last year with no run support.

AFAIC Ubaldo has very little trade value right now. I'd release him at the end of the season except for the fact that the Indians have nobody ready to step in. Tomlin is done for 2013 and Carnandez blows. The one thing Ubaldo can do is take the ball every 5th game and give you five innings before he hits 110 pitches.

The Indians might as well pick up his option and hope he has a pretty good first half similar to what Lowe did this year, then trade him to a contender. If he doesn't improve next year, well, we wouldn't have gotten anything decent for him anyway.

If he had good stuff his ERA and WHIP wouldn't be at the bottom of all ML pitchers.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby Edible14 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:10 pm

ironmike wrote:Put Ubaldo and Masterson on winning teams and I'm betting they produce.


I'm not sure I buy that with Ubaldo. Unless you're trying to make a "magic of synergy" argument that he'd somehow be allowing less runs on a better team because he'd be happier/more motivated/in a winning culture. Ubaldo has said he's really happy here (at least compared to Colorado), so I'm not sure that the mental argument works for him. But it doesn't really matter what team is behind him. If you walk as many people as he walks, while striking out as few people as he strikes out, you're not going to be a very good pitcher. Here's an exhaustive list of qualifying AL pitchers who have a worse k/bb ratio:

Derek Lowe, Ricky Romero, Luis Mendoza, Henderson Alvarez

If you're arguing run support, that's wrong for two reasons. One, his run support hasn't been that bad (40th out of 66 pitchers in the AL, best on the Indians aside from Lowe and McAllister). Just better run support wouldn't mean much. He'd win a few more games, sure, but you can make the same argument for literally every pitcher in existence. You could put me on the mound and argue "if he just got better run support, he'd win more games" and that would be true, but it wouldn't mean I was good. That wouldn't mean it wouldn't be a good idea to replace me. Ubaldo is by some measures one of the worst starters in baseball. If we're still trying to contend next year, it makes no sense to spend a significant chunk of your available free agent budget on a guy that has such a small chance to rebound. It's worthwhile to explore other options, especially if they're cheaper and likely to be with the team longer. And if we're not going to contend, what good does keeping him around do?

The Indians need solutions at pitcher. Jimenez is probably not one of them. I'd rather spend time figuring out if Gomez, Kluber, Barnes, McAllister, Adams, McFarland, and Packer could possibly be those solutions instead.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:36 pm

Prosecutor you've been a quick trigger on Ubaldo all year because you are prospect happy. When Ubaldo pitches a good game you're silent. Ubaldo's got a chance to turn it around. He does have good movement / stuff, just big time location issues at the moment that could be corrected with the right coaching. Seen many guys have bad years like Ubaldo over the years and then get it back again. Made mention of examples including Luis Tiant and Dennis Martinez As bad as the celebrated, over exaggerated farm system is, he's still better than anything that disaster has to offer.

The truth often hurts, but this will be a lesson for all, less HYPE & BS starting from the top, the executives, STO, the writers and more emphasis on top notch evaluation and winning. They should scrap every single promotion for next year just to prove to the fans they are serious about winning. Don't believe it will happen under Dolan.

Best thing short term Dolan could do is fire Shapiro and bring back John Hart as President of the team. Give Hart full control of baseball operations with the budget he needs and let him make ALL the baseball decisions. At least it would give the fans hope and a conduit back to winning that we once enjoyed.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby indians1 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:35 pm

ubaldo had a good June and that is about it. He has been bad the other months.

Face it, the indians were horribly wrong in their evaluation of ubaldo. I heard on the radio one of the owners talk about why they made the trade for gonzales and beckett. he said that they want to get back to setting up the dodgers tradition and re-establish the pipeline of talent through their farm system. It will take a few years but they will get back to building their talent from within.
They made the trade so they have some talent over the next few years and then they can draft and develop those guys to come in and play in a few years.

That was so refreshing to hear an owner/president take owenrship of their mission and lay out a direct plan.

Does anybody have a clue what the indians' plan is? They said they were going to build their team around pitching and they have been one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball for 2 years straight. 23rd last year and 27th this year.

There is no quick fixes. This organization is broken and not one or 2 moves is going to change that. Our farm system is not producing the impact players we need to compete year in and year out. The dolans have accepted that we have to be bad for a few years to hopefully compete for a 2 or 3 year window.

What ever sense that makes. tony is not wrong. The dolans should shed as many bad contracts and sell the team to an owner that knows how to hire competent FO people to draft and develop the talent. That is the only way we are going to be good.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby TonyIBI » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:38 pm

Ubaldo definitely has the stuff to turn it around. Of course, we've been saying the same thing about Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez the past few years too. Sometimes guys are just mental midgets and do not have the work ethic and drive to get better. Ubaldo is just not a very good pitcher anymore, and right now, no amount of coaching within this current framework is going to change things. His value in the industry is extremely low right now, so a trade is not much of an option because other teams see him as a problem child for any contending team's rotation. The Rockies were quick to dump him and his performance has cratered the last two years, and he has shown bouts of immaturity on the mound and looks like he could care less how things go. The sooner they move on from Ubaldo the better.

If Ubaldo goes on to have success elsewhere, so be it, because it just is not going to happen in Cleveland. If he tanks in 2013 his mutual option for 2014 is declined by the Indians and he becomes a FA. If he does well in 2013 then he declines the mutual option and becomes a FA in 2014. Either way, he's likely gone after next season....and I don't see how this team is contending next season and how he makes that much of a difference. Cut him loose.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Mon Sep 17, 2012 8:36 am

Tony, will debate you on this any time, any place regarding ... you make your decisions based on what others tell you and not with your own eyes. Jimeneze has the best stuff of any pitcher on our present staff, he's having location problems which I'm certain is frustrating to him. He goes out there and competes every fifth day and will eventually find it. Who in the Hell do we have to replace him???

You don't trade pitchers like Masterson and Jimenez when you have NO prospects to replace them with if you are trying to sell tickets, and secure sponsors and partners. Build on what you have. They have no chips to trade, no impact players to promote. You are blaming Jimenez, the guys you should be blaming you don't because they write you a monthly check? Just asking.

What needs to be done is the organization all the way down and through their media outlets need to stop SELLING hope, writing propaganda. The sour wine they are tasting right now should be a great lesson for all involved. Next year, drop all the added attractions and tell the fans all revenue is going to be spent on finding ways to win. Hire a consultant like Pat Gillick to assist Anonetti or hire a baseball guy like Rick Manning to replace him and revamp the entire organizational structure regarding talent evaluation.

Bad owner, poor business model, poor hiring of incompetent executives leads to poor internal hirings, bad drafting a not so good trading record, lousy teams and poor attendance. Brett Larkin came real close this week in writing the REAL story. My question to you is ... who has the balls to write the real story.

Enough of the propaganda. The same people who failed, hired Brad Grant. Don't see his previous track record as extraordinary and that is what is required. Right now we have a real weakness compared to our competitors in player evaluation, don't see that changing with the same people involved.

Been saying all of this for the past 5 years regarding Shapiro and finally people are beginning to see the light. It can be fixed, just bring in good baseball people to fix it. Really simple. However, it is going to take 3-4 years to get it all done.

Sooner or later reality must take over the situation and it finally did.

PS Still remember Hawk Harrelson telling Bruce Drennan the Indians would never contend in 2012. The look on Drennan's face was a site to be seen. He's the kind of paid mouth piece that spreads the STO propaganda set down by the Indians marketing / business office.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby daingean » Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:04 am

I'm basically on the fence about Ubaldo and F-Bob. On one hand, I think Ubaldo's loss of velocity is the difference between him being able to regain his dominance and what we see today. If that is the case then continuing to spend money on him is just throwing it away. On the other hand, if he can learn to pitch then maybe his value will increase which would allow the tribe to flip him for a prospect. Still think the odds of that are remote though.

With regard to F-Bob, I think he's a better gamble. Again F-Bob needs to transform himself into a pitcher instead of a thrower. He still has the velocity and maybe a half year off maybe he learned how much baseball means to him.

In the end, I think the Indians bring both back (wise or not) and our best hope is a new pitching coach that can reach these guys. With so many sinker ball pitchers in the rotation (assuming they all return), the Indians should look to a pitcher that had success as a sinker baller.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby adaree » Mon Sep 17, 2012 12:45 pm

ironmike wrote:Tony, will debate you on this any time, any place regarding ... you make your decisions based on what others tell you and not with your own eyes. Jimeneze has the best stuff of any pitcher on our present staff, he's having location problems which I'm certain is frustrating to him. He goes out there and competes every fifth day and will eventually find it. Who in the Hell do we have to replace him???

You don't trade pitchers like Masterson and Jimenez when you have NO prospects to replace them with if you are trying to sell tickets, and secure sponsors and partners. Build on what you have. They have no chips to trade, no impact players to promote. You are blaming Jimenez, the guys you should be blaming you don't because they write you a monthly check? Just asking.


I don't get where this "Jimenez has the best stuff of any pitcher on the staff" nonsense is coming from. His ball moves, sure, but he has no idea where it's going and he often cannot even control the ball, let alone command it within the strike zone. His velocity is in an extreme downward trend, almost 4 mph slower than where it was just two years ago. In 2010, he was generating a swing and miss with his fastball 10% of the time, now it's below 5%. In fact, his swinging strike rate is down about 2% (at least) on all of his pitches, and he doesn't seem to have any idea how to fix it. Radinsky spent a ton of time working with Ubaldo in the offseason and in between starts this year, and it resulted in him being one of the worst starters in baseball.

You say we have no prospects to replace him, I say we have about 4-5 pitchers who are more than capable of replacing a 5.08 FIP and 5.43 ERA. We aren't going to trade him obviously because NOBODY wants him, but I definitely would not be paying him 6 million next year when a guy like Gomez, Kluber, Barnes, or heck even David Huff could give you roughly the same results (or better) for close to the league minimum.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:15 am

Adaree, no prospect or suspect can replace Ubaldo in the Indians system at the present time. You've been brainwashed by the hope, spin and hype carefully calculated by Tony Lastoria / Ross Atkins.

By the way, the lack of enough minor league talent coming out of the Indians farm system since 2001 proves this without a shadow of a doubt.

If you go back and read all the hype attached to these guys you would think we would win 100 games every year.

I say, duck and believe about 10% of what you read and hear.

Ubaldo, only a short while ago was the best pitcher in baseball. He can get it back and win with the stuff he has.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby adaree » Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:40 am

I haven't been "brainwashed" about anything...Ubaldo is just not a good pitcher anymore. Look at the numbers, numbers do not lie. You really don't think Gomez, Huff, Kluber, McFarland, Barnes, Soto, House, etc. etc. are capable of putting up an ERA around 5.50?? I don't think any of the guys I just listed are better than #4 starters at this level, but at this point, Ubaldo isn't even that. There's only 3 starters with an ERA worse than him in baseball right now, and his peripheral numbers don't leave much room for hope.

If he still had a 96 mph fastball and was still striking out over 8 guys per 9 innings, you could live with his walks. But he doesn't. His stuff has rapidly declined without any reason to believe there's an injury behind it that he can recover from...he just lost it. It has nothing to do with Tony ragging on him or anybody else hyping up prospects. Look at this article from FanGraphs, a national media source with no organizational bias: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... th-ubaldo/

"After hovering in the 46%-50% groundball range for several seasons, Jimenez has just a 39% groundball rate this year. Unfortunately, over half of the difference has shown up in the line drive column. The remainder has turned into flyballs that are turning into homers at a 13% clip. From 2008-10, and prior to his mid-season trade to the Indians last year, Jimenez’s HR/FB never rose above 8.9%.

Batters are handling him better because his stuff isn’t as nasty and he has had issues locating. His once-electric 96 mph fastball now averages 92.7 mph on the radar gun. He isn’t locating the curve as frequently, and it isn’t fooling hitters either. His former 86 mph slider is now being thrown more often despite now barely topping 83 mph. The same is true of the changeup. His slider is barely moving vertically this season. His other offerings have picked up some horizontal movement, but hitters have been able to pick them up more quickly given the reduced velocity. As a result, they haven’t been as inclined to swing out of the zone, and have increased contact within the zone.

It’s important to cite plate discipline metrics in the appropriate context(s), and in this case Jimenez is not only faring much worse than he ever has, but he ranks as the worst in the American League, or one of the worst, in a few key areas.

The league average O-Swing% is 30.6%, while Jimenez has a 22.6% rate. His 7% SwStr% is below the 9% league average as well. Batters have contacted 88.5% of his in-zone pitches, compared to an 87.3% league average. He has thrown first strikes just 53.2% of the time, compares to the 59.9% league.

His 22.6% O-Swing% is the worst in the junior circuit. C.J. Wilson ranks behind him with a 25.9% mark. That ‘race’ isn’t even close. Jimenez also has the 5th-lowest SwStr% in the league and the lowest rate of throwing first strikes. He isn’t just below average in these areas. He’s essentially the very worst in the American League. And it isn’t as cut-and-dried as assuming his struggles are related to the league switch, because his numbers (K%, BB%, GB%, SIERA) over 11 starts with the 2011 Indians were almost identical to those before the trade.

It sure seems like Jimenez’s problems are related to the natural decline of his repertoire
. Perhaps it’s the wear and tear on his body. After all, starters don’t tend to average 96 mph throughout their entire careers, and his wind-up has always been viewed as being potentially problematic down the road. His ‘stuff’ isn’t the same, but he hasn’t made the appropriate adjustments to pitch in a way more suitable for what he has to work with now. Whether he can make those adjustments will shape his career trajectory from this point on. The Rockies likely chalked last year’s trade up as a win as they were able to shed salary and acquire top prospects, but it’s safe to say the Indians didn’t expect that one of the best would instantly become one of the worst."
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby Prosecutor » Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:20 am

And it isn’t as cut-and-dried as assuming his struggles are related to the league switch, because his numbers (K%, BB%, GB%, SIERA) over 11 starts with the 2011 Indians were almost identical to those before the trade....The Rockies likely chalked last year’s trade up as a win as they were able to shed salary and acquire top prospects, but it’s safe to say the Indians didn’t expect that one of the best would instantly become one of the worst."


If his 11 starts for Cleveland in 2011 were almost identical to those before the trade, then he didn't go from one of the best to one of the worst after coming to Cleveland. He was already one of the worst when the Indians gave up Pomeranz and White for him. A huge gamble that blew up in their faces. They thought they could tweak his mechanics and get him back to being a #1 starter, but they didn't realize that it's not his mechanics. His arm just isn't what it was. Pitching in Colorado is hard on arms, which is why they're not letting their young pitchers like White and Pomz go more than four innings at a time.

Pomeranz and White are both being limited to 80 pitches per start. They're throwing four innings and then being taken out. The Rockies have realized that pitching at altitude destroys arms, especially if you let them pitch deep into a game consistently. That's why they were willing to trade Ubaldo. They could see the drop in velocity and the reduced biting action on the slider before they traded him. They knew his best days were behind him. What's left is the 94th best starter out of 97.

Tony says that even if Ubaldo has a good month or two next spring he won't bring anything in a trade. Teams have no faith that he can sustain success for any length of time. So his only asset at this point is his ability to take the ball every fifth day and throw 100 pitches. If they need a placeholder while the future starters in the farm system work their way up the ladder, he can fill that role. Whether he's worth $6 million next year to give up 4 runs in 6 innings every time out is the question.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby BrianM » Tue Sep 18, 2012 12:39 pm

daingean wrote:I'm basically on the fence about Ubaldo and F-Bob.


F-Bob...that is beautiful. Im actually hoping F-Bob comes back next year just so I can call him F-Bob all year.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby adaree » Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:28 pm

Prosecutor wrote:
Tony says that even if Ubaldo has a good month or two next spring he won't bring anything in a trade. Teams have no faith that he can sustain success for any length of time. So his only asset at this point is his ability to take the ball every fifth day and throw 100 pitches. If they need a placeholder while the future starters in the farm system work their way up the ladder, he can fill that role. Whether he's worth $6 million next year to give up 4 runs in 6 innings every time out is the question.



Very well said. I didn't think Derek Lowe was worth $5 million just to "eat innings" if every time he went out was a complete disaster, so I can't say I feel any differently about Ubaldo. I understand why the Indians made the trade, I don't blame them for it, but at this point it is time to cut our losses and move on. $6 million isn't a ton, but it's more than what Kluber or Gomez or Slowey any other of our plethora of #5 starters would be making in his place.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby artgold » Wed Sep 19, 2012 12:56 pm

After thinking it over a bit I've come down on the side of keeping Ubaldo for next season. I think if you look at him as an ace who has been a failure it is easy to want to discard him, but if looking at him as a #3 or #4 starting pitcher his performance isn't horrible. His cost isn't steep for what a #3 or #4 veteran would normally be today.

Also, if he does half decent and the team stinks, you possibly could deal him for another young asset. Just to close out this issue though, since I know how many folks are disappointed with Jimenez, I want to point out that Alex White and Drew Pomeranz are now 3-17 with Colorado, have a combined ERA above 5.00, and have generally had poor starts despite being able to pitch very limited innings (meaning they aren't getting hit around when tired, or exposed for the 3rd or 4th time through the lineup).

So it isn't like I felt when my Phillies dealt Fergie Jenkins to the Cubs a few years ago.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:02 pm

Art Gold, well said. Ubaldo can serve a purpose in 2013.

Gripe sakes, I thought Pomeranz and White were the second coming of Koufax and Drysdale or Don Sutton, per Tony.

The REAL story is why we drafted Pomeranz versus Chris Sale. Guess the answer is the same reason we also drafted other soft tossing lefties, Huff, Sowers, Laffey and I missed a few.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:51 pm

First, I think it's qk to pass judgment on Pomeranz and White, both are 23 and hardly seasoned vets.

Second, I'm not against bringing Jimenez back myself, but I would choose between him and Hernandez pk one and opt out on the other and take that savings and use it toward his replacement or a bat depending on the returns via Choo and CPerez trades.

Jimenez does have good stuff, sometimes too good, same can be said for Hernandez but the Tribe just can't run these guys out there. Personally I'd pk Jimenez of the two bc of his stuff, but also the hope that he gets it together, which. Is highly unlikely but the practical purpose that he will log some innings---good or bad that does have value for a bad team. Yes he's had a few bright moments but so did Shelley Duncan.

Finally, I'd prefer to see the Tribe go major overhaul opt out on Hafner, Jimenez, Hernandez, decline RPerez arb, decline Hannahan arb, let Grady and Kotchman walk w/o thoughts, trade Choo and CPerez, and explore moves of Masterson, ACab, Marson and Joe Smith.
Id try to get some now talent in return for both Choo and CPerez and a cpl prospects too. Then I'd target a guy like Mike Napoli and Anibal Sanchez in FA and look to add some moving parts as well. The Tribe has to act aggressively on at least a few guys, make a cpl good solid trades and just be aggressive in the trade, and FA mkt shopping for steals.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby go_tribe » Thu Sep 20, 2012 1:25 am

ironmike wrote:Art Gold, well said. Ubaldo can serve a purpose in 2013.

Gripe sakes, I thought Pomeranz and White were the second coming of Koufax and Drysdale or Don Sutton, per Tony.

The REAL story is why we drafted Pomeranz versus Chris Sale. Guess the answer is the same reason we also drafted other soft tossing lefties, Huff, Sowers, Laffey and I missed a few.


Drew Pomeranz is not a soft tossing lefty, and other teams passed on Sale as well. There were and still are concerns about his durability and if he can stick in the rotation. Hell, even this season the White Sox moved him from the bullpen to the rotation back to the bullpen and back to the rotation again, not based on performance either, but based on his whether he could hold up. I bet he never comes close to repeating this years success.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:52 am

Go Tribe, doesn't matter other teams passed on Sale, we didn't select him and should have. Just another example of the poor evaluation issues hurting the team. Hard to argue the truth.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby daingean » Thu Sep 20, 2012 9:10 am

ironmike wrote:Go Tribe, doesn't matter other teams passed on Sale, we didn't select him and should have. Just another example of the poor evaluation issues hurting the team. Hard to argue the truth.


Your data is incomplete. See me in 2 years if Sale hasn't broken down. He was and still is a poor bet. If you break down his delivery and compare it to Anthony Reyes they look exactly the same. Come to think of it, you just might want to do some research on the inverted W before you start throwing out Sale out there.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Sep 20, 2012 9:23 am

ironmike...
I was one of the few ppl on here who said draft Sale or Choice, I also qualified that with IF you want a pitcher closer to the majors draft Pomeranz...I'm not a Pomeranz fan, nor am I close enough to the situation to be brained washed by the smoke screen the media, etc put out there. I'd consider myself very removed partly bc I live a few states away from Ohio now and I don't get my info from Tribe "boosters" but this system is not as devoid of talent as some suppose, and it's still early in the evaluation process for White and Pomeranz. Personally, I liked White better than Pomeranz but I think the finger injury has had a lasting affect on White. I no longer see him as a SP bc of it. Maybe it's one of those things where the further he gets from injury the more success / confidence he has in it. Pomeranz and White are both only 23 and should just now be hitting the big leagues but both were forced up by necessity and through their own minor league affectiveness.
The were real concerns with Chris Sale...arm slot, reliever / starter. The Tribe has to get it right, and with a small margin for error they went with the "safer" pk, and may I add that Pomeranz had been consider the best prospect entering the draft at one point. All of that said the Tribe has to take chances and has to hit on occasion with guys like Sale. Overall, I don't think we can seriously evaluate these guys for several yrs.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby adaree » Thu Sep 20, 2012 1:39 pm

I agree with this. Sale is one of the rare pitchers who has made a funky arm slot like that work over the course of a season in the starting rotation. For every Chris Sale, there's about a dozen other players who are successful in the amateur ranks but simply cannot stay in a big league rotation long term due to their delivery.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby daingean » Thu Sep 20, 2012 1:56 pm

adaree wrote:I agree with this. Sale is one of the rare pitchers who has made a funky arm slot like that work over the course of a season in the starting rotation. For every Chris Sale, there's about a dozen other players who are successful in the amateur ranks but simply cannot stay in a big league rotation long term due to their delivery.


It's really not about what success Sale has had but his durability. Guys with that bad of a delivery seldom last long (see Anthony Reyes who is the closest to his delivery). Plus, he would have been sent to Colorado for Ubaldo anyway.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:18 am

Daingean, you forget, Sale made it the White Sox quickly and CONTRIBUTED immediately, while Pomeranz was still the feature of Tony's minor league stories. Huge difference. No, he would not have been involved in the Ubaldo trade. Pomeranz was moved because it was accurately projected he would not help the team in Shapiro's 2012 window.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby theshow » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:45 am

TonyIPI wrote:If Ubaldo goes on to have success elsewhere, so be it, because it just is not going to happen in Cleveland. If he tanks in 2013 his mutual option for 2014 is declined by the Indians and he becomes a FA. If he does well in 2013 then he declines the mutual option and becomes a FA in 2014. Either way, he's likely gone after next season....and I don't see how this team is contending next season and how he makes that much of a difference. Cut him loose.


If Ubaldo is having success at the trade deadline, he is a trade chip who could net us an excellent prospect. Isn't that in and of itself worth it?
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:40 pm

I'm not a fan of Ubaldo, didn't like the trade then / now.

I disagree Sale would have been helping the Tribe in '12. The Tribe often slows the progression of their top prospects. While it is appealing to dump Jimenez, I don't think they will. It would mark a mistake first, second can they get 'that type of production' for the same $$$.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:38 pm

theshow wrote:
TonyIPI wrote:If Ubaldo goes on to have success elsewhere, so be it, because it just is not going to happen in Cleveland. If he tanks in 2013 his mutual option for 2014 is declined by the Indians and he becomes a FA. If he does well in 2013 then he declines the mutual option and becomes a FA in 2014. Either way, he's likely gone after next season....and I don't see how this team is contending next season and how he makes that much of a difference. Cut him loose.


If Ubaldo is having success at the trade deadline, he is a trade chip who could net us an excellent prospect. Isn't that in and of itself worth it?


There is a lack of faith in him throughout the industry. Plus, it is hard to believe that he will suddenly put it all together and have a very good year. I think the realistic approach is to hope that since he essentially is in a free agent year that he will be more focused and actually give a crap out there because his future depends on it. If he rebounds and does well, you probably get a middle of the road prospect for him....not an elite prospect.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:39 pm

ironmike wrote:Go Tribe, doesn't matter other teams passed on Sale, we didn't select him and should have. Just another example of the poor evaluation issues hurting the team. Hard to argue the truth.


The Indians choice for the pick was actually between Sale and Pomeranz. They went with Pomeranz obviously, and I have no problem with the pick in hindsight, especially since we probably would have included Sale in the Jimenez trade anyway (Sale would have been on the same progression in the minors as Pomeranz).
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Fri Nov 09, 2012 10:18 am

Tony you miss the point entirely. Good savvy baseball evaluator selects Sale, the lesser selects Pomeranz. The good savvy baseball evaluator puts Sale in the ML's like the White Sox did, the lesser tries to refine and polish for the sake of making their system exist.

Isn't that one of the main reason we are a team that can't compete. We not only get beat on the field, we get out-witted by our competitors front office staff.

For your own education, go buy the book, Endless Summers by Jack Torry. Part of being a baseball writer is educating about oneself about the history of the franchise and winning models whick lies beyond correct grammar and hype. No really, no put down, educate yourself. Maybe someday you right the next chapter.

Regarding Jimenez, as Francona said yesterday, he has a mechanical problem. He tilts backwards, gets his front shoulder high which creates a consistency problem for his release point. His stuff is well above average, his ball moves all over the place. When he can consistently leverage the ball down with a good release point and deliver the ball low in the zone he'll be okay. Saw this with Tiant, Eckersley, Sutcliffe and a few other pitchers the Indians gave up on. If the guy has good stuff you keep him and get him coached up. He must be the top priority.

Besides what other choices do the Indians have? They drafted all those soft-tossers in the high rounds for 5 years, now there is what you should be writing about. How and the hell could a team keep making the same mistake over and over again? Plus, we still have the same people making those selections. If they were competent in the first place, savvy, they would not have made those mistakes. Mirabelli, Grant, your buddy Atkins, Shapiro all of them, inferior results, outside if they are good guys or not.

Until Shapiro mans up, apologizes, steps down and takes the blame for what happened the past 10 years we will keep hammering him. Antonetti is in the middle of it, but he will look back in the future and say why the hell didn't I go to STL when I had the chance.

Terry Francona is a great manager, solid baseball guy, so was Manny Acta, but he won't make an impact until we start funneling exceptional, impactful young talent to him on an annual basis.

Also, what is the real reason Manny was let go, I'm sure he was frustrated not getting the players he was promised. Right now we have no LF, IB or DH, 1/3 of a lineup. Now what manager do you know could win with that situation?
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Nov 09, 2012 1:28 pm

ironmike wrote:Tony you miss the point entirely. Good savvy baseball evaluator selects Sale, the lesser selects Pomeranz. The good savvy baseball evaluator puts Sale in the ML's like the White Sox did, the lesser tries to refine and polish for the sake of making their system exist.

Isn't that one of the main reason we are a team that can't compete. We not only get beat on the field, we get out-witted by our competitors front office staff.

For your own education, go buy the book, Endless Summers by Jack Torry. Part of being a baseball writer is educating about oneself about the history of the franchise and winning models whick lies beyond correct grammar and hype. No really, no put down, educate yourself. Maybe someday you right the next chapter.

Regarding Jimenez, as Francona said yesterday, he has a mechanical problem. He tilts backwards, gets his front shoulder high which creates a consistency problem for his release point. His stuff is well above average, his ball moves all over the place. When he can consistently leverage the ball down with a good release point and deliver the ball low in the zone he'll be okay. Saw this with Tiant, Eckersley, Sutcliffe and a few other pitchers the Indians gave up on. If the guy has good stuff you keep him and get him coached up. He must be the top priority.

Besides what other choices do the Indians have? They drafted all those soft-tossers in the high rounds for 5 years, now there is what you should be writing about. How and the hell could a team keep making the same mistake over and over again? Plus, we still have the same people making those selections. If they were competent in the first place, savvy, they would not have made those mistakes. Mirabelli, Grant, your buddy Atkins, Shapiro all of them, inferior results, outside if they are good guys or not.

Until Shapiro mans up, apologizes, steps down and takes the blame for what happened the past 10 years we will keep hammering him. Antonetti is in the middle of it, but he will look back in the future and say why the hell didn't I go to STL when I had the chance.

Terry Francona is a great manager, solid baseball guy, so was Manny Acta, but he won't make an impact until we start funneling exceptional, impactful young talent to him on an annual basis.

Also, what is the real reason Manny was let go, I'm sure he was frustrated not getting the players he was promised. Right now we have no LF, IB or DH, 1/3 of a lineup. Now what manager do you know could win with that situation?


And what players was he promised? I know your Dolan look-a-like at McDonalds (or whatever it was) said things but owners/GMs don't promise managers players (at least they shouldn't when you're a small market club). As far as a manager that could win in a situation like that...Joe Maddon has holes at SS, catcher, and DH (and has for a while) and could even argue 1B now, and was without his all-star 3B for a good chunk of the year....he finds ways to win. Obviously has a much better pitching staff though. Not bashing Manny Acta, but having 3 holes in a lineup doesn't mean you can't win. Pitching is vastly more important.


Shapiro should apologize right after Hart apologizes for the shitty drafts he had (Shuey over Jeter) and terrible trades that set this club back and gutted the system (Sean Casey, Brian Giles, Jeremy Burnitz, Jeff Kent, Richie Sexson, etc). Shapiro actually did a good job in the early part of the decade fixing the mess of a farm system we had. Drafting never got better though unfortunately.

Tribe has recognized issues in Ubaldo's delivery before, yet nothing has changed. Maybe yet another pitching coach can finally get him going but there's one common factor with Ubaldo's struggles and that's Ubaldo. I do think he could have a bounceback year like Carmona did in 2010 but not expecting miracles.
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Re: Tony's got Ubaldo on the Move - Big Mistake

Postby ironmike » Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:20 pm

Hermie, sorry you struggle so much with reality and a lack of self-esteem, can't help you with either.
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