RSS Twitter Facebook YouTube
Expand Menu

Indians sign Kotchman

Talk about the Cleveland Indians, Major League Baseball, and other sports.

Indians sign Kotchman

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Feb 02, 2012 5:25 pm

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS:
kotchman is heading to the #indians
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3139
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby GoTribe028 » Thu Feb 02, 2012 5:36 pm

I can live with it....assuming it's not for too much
Follow me on Twitter @GoTribe028 for useless and random tweets.
GoTribe028
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1165
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:44 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby GoTribe028 » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:02 pm

Heyman reporting 3 million plus incentives....ugh....
Follow me on Twitter @GoTribe028 for useless and random tweets.
GoTribe028
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1165
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:44 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:06 pm

GoTribe028 wrote:Heyman reporting 3 million plus incentives....ugh....


I'm pleased with those figures actually... Plus, plus defender. Contact guy who will get on base. I like it. Pena wanted $7-8 million for almost the same thing.. Pena has power, terrible contact.. Kotchman average power, great contact. I'll gladly take it..

Adds another lefty to the lineup, though...
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3139
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby GoTribe028 » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:11 pm

A.Zajac wrote:
GoTribe028 wrote:Heyman reporting 3 million plus incentives....ugh....


I'm pleased with those figures actually... Plus, plus defender. Contact guy who will get on base. I like it. Pena wanted $7-8 million for almost the same thing.. Pena has power, terrible contact.. Kotchman average power, great contact. I'll gladly take it..

Adds another lefty to the lineup, though...


I guess I'm just weary of his career year last year....not overly convinced he'll duplicate near those numbers...

...Could be like having Jack Hanahan playing both 1st and 3rd base at the same time though...
Follow me on Twitter @GoTribe028 for useless and random tweets.
GoTribe028
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1165
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:44 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:14 pm

GoTribe028 wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:
GoTribe028 wrote:Heyman reporting 3 million plus incentives....ugh....


I'm pleased with those figures actually... Plus, plus defender. Contact guy who will get on base. I like it. Pena wanted $7-8 million for almost the same thing.. Pena has power, terrible contact.. Kotchman average power, great contact. I'll gladly take it..

Adds another lefty to the lineup, though...


I guess I'm just weary of his career year last year....not overly convinced he'll duplicate near those numbers...

...Could be like having Jack Hanahan playing both 1st and 3rd base at the same time though...


Hey, I mean, with the type of pitchers that we have who are more contact pitchers, it's not always a bad thing to have plus defenders out there.
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3139
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Prosecutor » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:22 pm

Gotta love the .378 OBP last year. He's not just a platoon guy, either, he hit .289/.709 against lefties and .313/.838 against righties. Looks like LaPorta spends the year in Columbus.

Kotchman went 10-for-23 against the Indians. He obviously made an impression.

My concern is that despite hitting .306 he had only 48 RBI in 500 AB's. Not much production for a 1st baseman batting in the 5-7 spots in the order. A closer examination shows he hit .305 with the bases empty and .307 with runners on. You'd think he'd have more RBI, except his average dropped to .250 with RISP and a Mendoza-like .197 with RISP and two out. He was a human rally killer. With the bags juiced he hit only .231. Looks like he was pressing in those situations.

I checked his 2010 splits and he actually hit .341 with RISP/2 out, so maybe 2011 was a fluke. He hit only .217 overall in 2010, so he rebounded from a horrible season to have a very good one last year, except for the RBI's.

I think we can expect numbers closer to what he put up in 2008 and 2009, which were more consistent:

2008 .273/.738
2009 .268/.721

My guess is that 2010 and 2011 were anomalies, in different directions. He'll probably return to being a .270/.730 guy in 2012.

Last year he was hitting .320 at the end of August, but faded down the stretch and hit only .244 in September when the Rays were chasing down the Red Sox. I don't know if he got dinged, worn down, or just let the pressure of a pennant race get to him.

Overall it's hard to argue against this signing, but I'd prefer to give LaPorta one more chance. He hit .333 in September when he started going up the middle and to right field. I think he can hit .270/.730 if he stops trying to pull everything over the left field wall.
Prosecutor
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 961
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:51 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby daingean » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:36 pm

I watched the guy for a year in Atlanta. Not worth it offensively even 3 Mil. Even last year which was a career year he scored 44 runs and drove in 48. Those numbers are pathetic for a 1B. I don't care if he does get on base if all you can do for a playoff team is account for 92 runs in your best year.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1538
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby danh8 » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:37 pm

I was hoping this would be the guy we would end up getting for 1st base this offseason. We need that plus fielder at 1st base that he will provide, and he hits right and left handers equally as well. I've always felt he would be a very good fit in the two hole in a team's lineup as well... He just fits this team very well with what he can do.
danh8
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 320
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 12:49 am

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby jellis » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:51 pm

the defense upgrade he brings with this staff will be good for 2-3 wins vs laporta out there. Plus people should remember he is only a year older than laporta I believe, not an old man, yet some how people think laporta will develop still
jellis
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3016
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 5:34 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby TheWord » Thu Feb 02, 2012 7:01 pm

daingean wrote:I watched the guy for a year in Atlanta. Not worth it offensively even 3 Mil. Even last year which was a career year he scored 44 runs and drove in 48. Those numbers are pathetic for a 1B. I don't care if he does get on base if all you can do for a playoff team is account for 92 runs in your best year.


How can you blame him for runs scored and RBI if he hit .306 with an OBP over .375

That seems to be more indicative of the team around him.
TheWord
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Sep 25, 2008 7:06 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby daingean » Thu Feb 02, 2012 7:07 pm

TheWord wrote:
daingean wrote:I watched the guy for a year in Atlanta. Not worth it offensively even 3 Mil. Even last year which was a career year he scored 44 runs and drove in 48. Those numbers are pathetic for a 1B. I don't care if he does get on base if all you can do for a playoff team is account for 92 runs in your best year.


How can you blame him for runs scored and RBI if he hit .306 with an OBP over .375

That seems to be more indicative of the team around him.


Look at his numbers throughout his career. The problem with Kotchman is that he can't score from 1B on a double and seldom drives a guy in from 1B or home plate. I really am basing my opinion of him offensively from when he played for Atlanta. We acquired a Harvey Kuenn. BTW, last year he was on a team that made the playoffs so he had guys around him that could hit. Stats can be deceiving until you watch the guy play.

I do like his glove and think that alone is the best thing he brings to the team.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1538
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby TheWord » Thu Feb 02, 2012 7:29 pm

He's not your typical style of player for a 1B.

Of course, the Indians are getting above average production from other positions like catcher, second base and shortstop which could outweigh some of that.

Sort of like Paul Sorrento wasn't the bopper but provided great defense and an intelligent stick.
TheWord
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Sep 25, 2008 7:06 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby ClevelandBlues » Thu Feb 02, 2012 7:33 pm

Not really a fan of this signing. He did put up a nice obp last year, but it was about forty points higher than his career average. I'll take his defense and low strikeout rate though.
ClevelandBlues
Draft Prospect
 
Posts: 149
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:49 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby OhioBaseball » Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:31 pm

I've always liked Casey Kotchman (for about a decade now!). I remember when he was a high schooler at Seminole High School on a team with other highly touted prospects, Ryan Dixon and Bryan Bass, at the time. Kotchman was extremely well thought of -- scouts called him one of the best pure hitters they could remember seeing and loved his defensive ability. This guy is a talented baseball player and at 29 years old he's right in his prime.

I know he hasn't lived up to the hype and I don't know how to explain that, but last year was very encouraging and this is a relatively young bat that gets on base and makes good contact. I don't think his swing is of the power type, but I'm happy with this signing.

Kotchman has really nice potential that's just now seeming to reach. This is not just some AAAA guy that people always doubted and lucked his way into a good season. He's always been highly thought of. The shine has wore off over the years, but it's not too late for him as a 29 year old coming off a very solid 2011 season.
Last edited by OhioBaseball on Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 654
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby GhostofTedCox » Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:32 pm

At the very least, by signing Casey Kotchman the Indians are a deeper team. The lack of depth last season killed us when the injuries hit. Our lineup had more Columbus Clippers than Indians.

I can see this years team as a collection of "good" players, with Santana being the only slugger. I don't think there will be a set lineup. Not because of platooning, as most everybody is LH. But there are other circumstances.

Kotchman should play the majority of games at 1B. (Him and Hannahan at the corners should be as good as it gets.) But Santana will play plenty of 1B too, with Marson at C. Santana must be in the daily lineup.

Hannahan should play most of the games at 3B. But I can see a healthy Jason Donald and maybe Canzler getting a chance too. I think Chiz will start in Columbus with LaPorta, but will return for the 2nd half.

In LF, I could see a little platoon with Brantley and Canzler.
In CF, we hope for the best with Sizemore. But we know for sure he will not be playing every day. Maybe Cunningham?

So Kotchman should allow for a lot of contributing pieces to play, with little drop-off.
User avatar
GhostofTedCox
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 726
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 11:24 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:53 pm

I like the defense. Hanny & Kotchman on the corners are going to take away lots of XBH's. Kotchman should especially help Chiz with his wild throws. I like the low K's & I'll be really happy if he can keep the OBP as high as last yr. Understand what daingean is saying; if he's not going to knock himself in via the HR he would be a better option if he could utilize every opportunity to score runs. Thome couldn't score from 2nd on most singles but scored a lot of runs just trotting around the bases.

As was noted earlier, this signing should make the pitching staff happy. Signed pretty cheap with incentives. Pretty good job by Antonetti. Not a difference maker with the bat but should be an over all plus to the club.
Rocky55
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1645
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:13 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby webba2000 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:42 am

Who will be removed form the 40Men roster?
De la Cruz? Diaz? Salazar?

If it is Diaz/Salazar now I understand why they protected them...so they could be removed easily :rolleyes:
webba2000
Draft Prospect
 
Posts: 126
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 11:14 am
Location: Turin, Italy

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby ClevelandBlues » Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:28 am

It would seem that Shelley Duncan would be the odd man out with the signing of Kotchman. It would be a shame to lose him, because he is a good bench player. I could also see Weglarz being the guy. I would think with his injury history and performance last year, a lot of teams would be hesitant to spend a 40 roster spot on him, so I think there is a good chance he might make it through waivers. The competition for bench spots should be interesting this spring. Marson has his spot locked up but Hannahan, Donald, Lopez, Duncan, Cunningham, Laporta, Spillborghs, Laroche, Lewis, Pie, Canzler and Carrera will all be fighting it out for the last three spots.
ClevelandBlues
Draft Prospect
 
Posts: 149
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:49 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby GoTribe028 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:39 am

ClevelandBlues wrote:It would seem that Shelley Duncan would be the odd man out with the signing of Kotchman. It would be a shame to lose him, because he is a good bench player. I could also see Weglarz being the guy. I would think with his injury history and performance last year, a lot of teams would be hesitant to spend a 40 roster spot on him, so I think there is a good chance he might make it through waivers. The competition for bench spots should be interesting this spring. Marson has his spot locked up but Hannahan, Donald, Lopez, Duncan, Cunningham, Laporta, Spillborghs, Laroche, Lewis, Pie, Canzler and Carrera will all be fighting it out for the last three spots.


I don't see how Duncan is the odd man out. He's contributed more at times than LaPorta really ever has. LaPorta likely goes to Columbus with Canzler.

If it weren't for the fact that Canzler was just acquired (for nothing really) I would expect him to get the boot. Wouldn't be shocked if KDLC, Kluber or Diaz takes it in the end. I wonder if Thomas Neal could be booted but believe overall that he's safe.

I suppose it's possible there could be a small deal worked that would open a space up but it's not likely IMO.
Last edited by GoTribe028 on Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
Follow me on Twitter @GoTribe028 for useless and random tweets.
GoTribe028
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1165
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:44 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby JP_Frost » Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:44 am

Meh.

Better glove than LaPorta and likely a slightly better offensive output, but really not much of an upgrade. Hopefully he has another career year or an even better one, because if he returns to his career norm I'd much rather have the money spent elsewhere.
User avatar
JP_Frost
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2117
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:01 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:24 am

The difference in the glove could be the biggest change that Casey Kotchman brings. Kotchman is also considered one of the best 'clubhouse' guys around, another facet of this player.

One thing to not expect from Casey Kotchman: run production.. and that's a bit scary.

Could the Indians still shock the baseball world with signing a 'potential' real run producer (Yoenis Cespedes) or make a trade for a run producer (The Washington Nationals have a dire need for a CF'er like Michael Brantley)? We shall see.. With the nearly two dozen or so NRI's and a packed 40 man roster, Spring Training, set to begin in 17 days, is going to be quite a battle site. Look out for carnage. STO is slated to air about a half dozen or so games. There are some online regional broadcasts that can be found to double that number. It should be entertaining..
GeronimoSon
MLB Rookie
 
Posts: 3917
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:17 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby daingean » Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:03 am

GhostofTedCox wrote:Hannahan should play most of the games at 3B. But I can see a healthy Jason Donald and maybe Canzler getting a chance too. I think Chiz will start in Columbus with LaPorta, but will return for the 2nd half.


I would hope that the signing of Kotchman means Chiz will get most of the games at 3B as he will provide more offense. Kotchman is a good defensive 1B and Chiz's defensive weakness is on his throws so it becomes a wash. NOTE: I am not for just giving 3B to Chiz (he has to earn it) but I hope the signing means that Chiz will get every opportunity to play at 3B.

Also note Kotchman is good defensively but not great but he catches what comes his way (very high fielding %).
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1538
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby daingean » Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:11 am

Rocky55 wrote:I like the defense. Hanny & Kotchman on the corners are going to take away lots of XBH's. Kotchman should especially help Chiz with his wild throws. I like the low K's & I'll be really happy if he can keep the OBP as high as last yr. Understand what daingean is saying; if he's not going to knock himself in via the HR he would be a better option if he could utilize every opportunity to score runs. Thome couldn't score from 2nd on most singles but scored a lot of runs just trotting around the bases.

As was noted earlier, this signing should make the pitching staff happy. Signed pretty cheap with incentives. Pretty good job by Antonetti. Not a difference maker with the bat but should be an over all plus to the club.


The difference between Thome and Kotchman (offensively) is that Thome could drive in guys from 1B. I don't care what your OBP is if you can't score from 1B on a double or drive in guys from 1B then you are neither a run producer or run scorer. In 2011, Kotchman accounted or 92 runs (44 scores 48 rbi's) in 563 plate appearances (on a playoff team playing in a hitter's park) while Matt LaPorta accounted for 87 runs (34/53) in 385 plate appearances. I'm just saying that for $3mil, we should get more offensively than that.
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1538
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Edible14 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 12:24 pm

daingean wrote:The difference between Thome and Kotchman (offensively) is that Thome could drive in guys from 1B. I don't care what your OBP is if you can't score from 1B on a double or drive in guys from 1B then you are neither a run producer or run scorer. In 2011, Kotchman accounted or 92 runs (44 scores 48 rbi's) in 563 plate appearances (on a playoff team playing in a hitter's park) while Matt LaPorta accounted for 87 runs (34/53) in 385 plate appearances. I'm just saying that for $3mil, we should get more offensively than that.


First off, runs and RBIs are terrible stats to measure a player's talent.

Second, $3MM doesn't get you much in today's MLB. Usually, it can get you a utility infielder or a 5th or 6th inning bullpen guy. While I don't think anyone is claiming that Kotchman is the cure to all of the Indians' problems, he's an upgrade over LaPorta and a worthy starting 1B. $3MM for that is actually a pretty good deal.

Kotchman brings something to the team that is badly needed: an eye. It's exactly what I wanted Nick Johnson to bring to the team last year. This team doesn't really draw a lot of walks outside of Santana, and they don't really get pitchers to stretch out their pitch counts as a result. That's going to help tire out the starters and get to the relievers a bit quicker.

Kotchman has some value. There might be about 15 better 1B than him, but it's not like he's Aubrey Huff out there.
User avatar
Edible14
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1058
Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 11:49 am

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 1:05 pm

Yeah I don't really see how you can not like this deal. $3M is a bit more than I'd have liked but within reason. I guess too I don't buy into the "career year" thing with Kotchman from a year ago. 2011 was not his best year as a MLer. He posted a better fWAR, bWAR, OPS, and wOBA in 2007 as opposed to last year. Also put up more RBIs (for those that care), a higher ISO, and more HRs despite 50+ fewer plate apperances. Also had a higher walk rate and lower K-rate that year.

Kotchman also had a solid stretch with the Braves in 2009 before being dealt to the Red Sox. He has shown multiple times that he can be an effective bat. He's definitely a risk for regression and isn't the ideal 1B due to lack of power, but should make a solid platoon partner of sorts with Marson.

Bottom line, the Indians are a better team today than they were a couple days ago. :drinks:
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby daingean » Fri Feb 03, 2012 1:08 pm

Edible14 wrote:
First off, runs and RBIs are terrible stats to measure a player's talent.

Second, $3MM doesn't get you much in today's MLB. Usually, it can get you a utility infielder or a 5th or 6th inning bullpen guy. While I don't think anyone is claiming that Kotchman is the cure to all of the Indians' problems, he's an upgrade over LaPorta and a worthy starting 1B. $3MM for that is actually a pretty good deal.

Kotchman brings something to the team that is badly needed: an eye. It's exactly what I wanted Nick Johnson to bring to the team last year. This team doesn't really draw a lot of walks outside of Santana, and they don't really get pitchers to stretch out their pitch counts as a result. That's going to help tire out the starters and get to the relievers a bit quicker.

Kotchman has some value. There might be about 15 better 1B than him, but it's not like he's Aubrey Huff out there.


I don't think runs and RBI's are terrible stats.......they are what offense is all about.....now single year stats yes but look at his runs and RBI's.....this shows you something about him....he's neither a run scorer or run producer.....

I still maintain that the majority of my opinion of Kotchman offensively is what I saw every day when he played in Atlanta. Which = disappointment....
daingean
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1538
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 12:06 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby petes999 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 3:31 pm

webba2000 wrote:Who will be removed form the 40Men roster?
De la Cruz? Diaz? Salazar?

If it is Diaz/Salazar now I understand why they protected them...so they could be removed easily :rolleyes:


When can we start stashing guys on the 60 day DL? Just wondering if Indians can hold onto the call on who to remove until we need to make room for the 1 or 2 non-roster invites to make our 25-man roster by stashing Carrasco on 60-day DL. I remember a few years ago Twins or someone using the DL to stash someone before or right at the start of spring training to sign a FA. Just wondering if Feb 1 is the day ...
petes999
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 559
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 6:02 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby hoof32 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:28 pm

Someone above mentioned that 'Shelly Duncan would be the odd man out,' off the 40 man.

I beg to differ: Shelly Duncan is a gamer, he's got a big RH stick. has three-run homer power, and he improved a lot over 2010. Cut down on his strikouts.

That guy is too valuable for the TRIBE to give up on, and he'd get snapped up in a heartbeat, it says here.

Gonna hafta rethink that 'odd man out' thing, especially with Corey Kluber around.

...and I hope I'm right, Shelly Duncan's AB's always get my attention.
hoof32
Draft Prospect
 
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2010 1:35 am

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Edible14 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:51 pm

hoof32 wrote:Someone above mentioned that 'Shelly Duncan would be the odd man out,' off the 40 man.

I beg to differ: Shelly Duncan is a gamer, he's got a big RH stick. has three-run homer power, and he improved a lot over 2010. Cut down on his strikouts.

That guy is too valuable for the TRIBE to give up on, and he'd get snapped up in a heartbeat, it says here.

Gonna hafta rethink that 'odd man out' thing, especially with Corey Kluber around.

...and I hope I'm right, Shelly Duncan's AB's always get my attention.


As a big guy, I like Shelley a lot. But, to be perfectly honest, he's not significantly better as a lefty-killer than either Donald or Cunningham, at least according to the advanced statistics (Donald is actually a little better), and that's virtually all the value he brings to the table. He's pretty much a negative defensively, even if you stick him in LF. Whereas those two provide good defense as multiple positions. So Duncan has two things going against him. 1) He wouldn't necessarily be sorely missed and 2) He's probably one of the least likely to get claimed, given the lack of value outside of his bat.

I don't think runs and RBI's are terrible stats.......they are what offense is all about.....now single year stats yes but look at his runs and RBI's.....this shows you something about him....he's neither a run scorer or run producer.....


The point of sabermetrics is to look beyond context. Both runs and RBIs have a lot of context around them that influences them. If you're not batting behind people who get on base, you're not going to record a lot of RBIs. If you're batting lower in the order where the guys behind you likely won't get you in that often, you won't score a lot of runs. Yes, runs are the goal... but that's the same logic that's used to justify using wins and saves, which are also terrible stats to judge a player's talent, because they don't measure the mechanisms that generate the goal. That's a bit like saying "this person makes the most money, so obviously he's done the most to make that money".
User avatar
Edible14
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1058
Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 11:49 am

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby TonyIBI » Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:16 pm

petes999 wrote:
webba2000 wrote:Who will be removed form the 40Men roster?
De la Cruz? Diaz? Salazar?

If it is Diaz/Salazar now I understand why they protected them...so they could be removed easily :rolleyes:


When can we start stashing guys on the 60 day DL? Just wondering if Indians can hold onto the call on who to remove until we need to make room for the 1 or 2 non-roster invites to make our 25-man roster by stashing Carrasco on 60-day DL. I remember a few years ago Twins or someone using the DL to stash someone before or right at the start of spring training to sign a FA. Just wondering if Feb 1 is the day ...


There is no 60-day DL in the offseason. Can't use that until April when the season starts (I think it is the day or two days before the season starts when rosters are official).
User avatar
TonyIBI
MLB Rookie
 
Posts: 5056
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:03 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby ironmike » Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:23 pm

Kotchman had a better batting average and a better on base percentage than any regular player we had on the team last year don't know how that adds up to pathetic.
User avatar
ironmike
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 656
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2010 5:28 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:14 pm

TonyIPI wrote:
petes999 wrote:
webba2000 wrote:Who will be removed form the 40Men roster?
De la Cruz? Diaz? Salazar?

If it is Diaz/Salazar now I understand why they protected them...so they could be removed easily :rolleyes:


When can we start stashing guys on the 60 day DL? Just wondering if Indians can hold onto the call on who to remove until we need to make room for the 1 or 2 non-roster invites to make our 25-man roster by stashing Carrasco on 60-day DL. I remember a few years ago Twins or someone using the DL to stash someone before or right at the start of spring training to sign a FA. Just wondering if Feb 1 is the day ...


There is no 60-day DL in the offseason. Can't use that until April when the season starts (I think it is the day or two days before the season starts when rosters are official).


Did this change with the new CBA?

Because the Indians absolutely used the 60-day DL in February 2010. They signed Branyan and on February 24th put Anthony Reyes on the 60-day DL....

Either way, yeah too early for Carrasco's 60-day DL move. Thought it was sometime early in ST you could start using it?
Last edited by Hermie13 on Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:16 pm

daingean wrote:I don't think runs and RBI's are terrible stats.......they are what offense is all about.....now single year stats yes but look at his runs and RBI's.....this shows you something about him....he's neither a run scorer or run producer.....

I still maintain that the majority of my opinion of Kotchman offensively is what I saw every day when he played in Atlanta. Which = disappointment....


Curiosity here...

Had Kotchman not been the main piece in the Teix deal...and had the Braves not giving up a TON to get Teixeira a year early, would your opinion of how he played in Atlanta been different?

Kotchman is far from an ideal 1B, but he played well early in 2009 for Atlanta IMO (not great but solid) if you take out the above context.
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:26 pm

I may be in the minority here....but am I the only one that would like to see Kotchman hitting in the 2-hole (at least against righties)?

He isn't a run producer, I think we all agree there whether you think this was a good signing or not...but he does do a good job of putting the ball in play and making contact. He's a good hit-n-run guy to have at the plate. I'd like to see Grady hitting leadoff with Kotch behind him. Grady has obviously lost a step and isn't a base stealing threat, but some hit-n-runs could work nicely. Kotch is a groundball guy, it's why he hits into so many DPs...if we can't outslug teams, need to some good situational hitting and use speed (be it hit-n-runs or stealing).
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby indianinkslinger » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:15 pm

Hermie13 wrote:I may be in the minority here....but am I the only one that would like to see Kotchman hitting in the 2-hole (at least against righties)?

He isn't a run producer, I think we all agree there whether you think this was a good signing or not...but he does do a good job of putting the ball in play and making contact. He's a good hit-n-run guy to have at the plate. I'd like to see Grady hitting leadoff with Kotch behind him. Grady has obviously lost a step and isn't a base stealing threat, but some hit-n-runs could work nicely. Kotch is a groundball guy, it's why he hits into so many DPs...if we can't outslug teams, need to some good situational hitting and use speed (be it hit-n-runs or stealing).

Not much in favor of having two base cloggers at the top of the lineup, Hermie. Neither can run at all unless you feel that Sizemore will somehow regain the speed he obviously lost last year, even when he was healthy. Even if Sizemore shows a return of form which warrants his return to the leadoff spot, I would much rather have someone with better speed, like Kipnis or Brantley, in the two spot. I think it is too early to make this decision but I envision Kotchman more in the 6/7 slot after Hafner/Duncan to not slow down the top of the order. There is not much productive speed on the Indians and what there is needs to be utilized and not slowed down by the one base at a timers unless they have productive power. For my part, it is hard for me to understand why you would want to block Sizemore's return to 30/30 of days past by slowing him down and I agree with most of your post. :pleasantry:
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby ClevelandBlues » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:30 pm

hoof32 wrote:Someone above mentioned that 'Shelly Duncan would be the odd man out,' off the 40 man.

I beg to differ: Shelly Duncan is a gamer, he's got a big RH stick. has three-run homer power, and he improved a lot over 2010. Cut down on his strikouts.

That guy is too valuable for the TRIBE to give up on, and he'd get snapped up in a heartbeat, it says here.

Gonna hafta rethink that 'odd man out' thing, especially with Corey Kluber around.

...and I hope I'm right, Shelly Duncan's AB's always get my attention.


That would have been me, and while I would hate to lose Duncan, I just don't see where he fits on the 25 man roster. We have four bench spots and I would say Marson is the backup catcher, Donald is the favorite for the utility infielder spot, Cunningham is the favorite for the fourth outfielder, and the last spot likely goes to Hannahan. We just picked up Canzler, who is a similar player, who also has minor league options left. If Duncan were to make it through waivers I would be all for offering him a minor league contract. I wouldn't write off Kluber just yet, while he has not been very good as a starter, he has the type of stuff that could translate well in the bullpen. After losing Judy, Burns and Putnam he might be a guy worth keeping.
ClevelandBlues
Draft Prospect
 
Posts: 149
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:49 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby TonyIBI » Sat Feb 04, 2012 6:27 am

Hermie13 wrote:Did this change with the new CBA?

Because the Indians absolutely used the 60-day DL in February 2010. They signed Branyan and on February 24th put Anthony Reyes on the 60-day DL....

Either way, yeah too early for Carrasco's 60-day DL move. Thought it was sometime early in ST you could start using it?


Nothing changed. Always been the rule. There is no DL in the offseason. Reyes was DFAed the previous November and resigned to a non-roster deal in December, two months before Branyan was signed (Gimenez was the one DFAed for Branyan).
User avatar
TonyIBI
MLB Rookie
 
Posts: 5056
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:03 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Hermie13 » Sat Feb 04, 2012 12:45 pm

TonyIPI wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:Did this change with the new CBA?

Because the Indians absolutely used the 60-day DL in February 2010. They signed Branyan and on February 24th put Anthony Reyes on the 60-day DL....

Either way, yeah too early for Carrasco's 60-day DL move. Thought it was sometime early in ST you could start using it?


Nothing changed. Always been the rule. There is no DL in the offseason. Reyes was DFAed the previous November and resigned to a non-roster deal in December, two months before Branyan was signed (Gimenez was the one DFAed for Branyan).


http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100224&content_id=8131506&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

Yes, the Tribe signed him to a minor league deal that December; however, he had an opt out and was re-added to the 40-man (when Gimenez was DFAed) on February 24th 2010 as I said...he was then immediately put on the 60-day DL, thus re-opening a 40man spot for Branyan.

http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2010/02/indians-officially-sign-branyan.html
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby OhioBaseball » Sat Feb 04, 2012 1:13 pm

I know people aren't too excited about Kotchman, but Kotchman was a +2.8 WAR player last year and Matt LaPorta was -0.8. That's a pretty big difference and a material upgrade.

This signing is kind of like pretending that the Indians 2003 first round pick (Michael Aubrey) wasn't a complete bust b/c, while they are different physically, Kotchman is basically the player that Michael Aubrey was supposed to be; good contact, good average, good OBP, good defense, below average MLB 1B power.

At $3mm base salary, I think Kotchman was a great signing.
OhioBaseball
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 654
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby artgold » Sat Feb 04, 2012 2:57 pm

I think some folks are underestimating Casey Kotchman.

I've read here, and elsewhere, about his performance last year being well above his historical norm.

However, that really isn't true, he performed well within his historical performance range.

Take a look at his first full season, 2007, and you see a slash line of .296/.372/.467/.840 with 11 HRs. If you take a look at his next season, before he was dealt to Atlanta August 1st, he had a slash line of .287/.327/.448/.774 and was on a pace to hit 17 HRs. After the trade, his performance tanked, but up to the trade he was doing rather well.

Again in 2009, up until he was dealt at mid-season, his slash line was .282/.354/.409/.764 and was on a pace to hit 11 HRs. Again his performance tanked after the trade.

His 2010 performance with Seattle was just a bad year, but his strikeout rate didn't spike despite his struggles.

So in 2011, he goes with a slash line of .306/.378/.422/.800 with Tampa, and hits 10 HRs.

I believe that his performance is actually pretty consistent, and if allowed to play full time for the Indians he would put up numbers in the range of .300/.380/.440 with about 15 HRs. Though somewhat better against righties, he hits lefthanded pitching pretty well too, so I see no reason to sit him at all.

Frankly, I just wish we had signed him for a longer term, I think he will turn out to be a Sean Casey or Dmitri Young type of hitter if just left alone.
artgold
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1101
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:00 am

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Hermie13 » Sat Feb 04, 2012 7:42 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:I may be in the minority here....but am I the only one that would like to see Kotchman hitting in the 2-hole (at least against righties)?

He isn't a run producer, I think we all agree there whether you think this was a good signing or not...but he does do a good job of putting the ball in play and making contact. He's a good hit-n-run guy to have at the plate. I'd like to see Grady hitting leadoff with Kotch behind him. Grady has obviously lost a step and isn't a base stealing threat, but some hit-n-runs could work nicely. Kotch is a groundball guy, it's why he hits into so many DPs...if we can't outslug teams, need to some good situational hitting and use speed (be it hit-n-runs or stealing).

Not much in favor of having two base cloggers at the top of the lineup, Hermie. Neither can run at all unless you feel that Sizemore will somehow regain the speed he obviously lost last year, even when he was healthy. Even if Sizemore shows a return of form which warrants his return to the leadoff spot, I would much rather have someone with better speed, like Kipnis or Brantley, in the two spot. I think it is too early to make this decision but I envision Kotchman more in the 6/7 slot after Hafner/Duncan to not slow down the top of the order. There is not much productive speed on the Indians and what there is needs to be utilized and not slowed down by the one base at a timers unless they have productive power. For my part, it is hard for me to understand why you would want to block Sizemore's return to 30/30 of days past by slowing him down and I agree with most of your post. :pleasantry:


Speed doesn't (or shouldn't) matter though at all when picking a leadoff hitter. That's an old fashion way of thinking. It's all about OBP. Brantley is faster than Grady now unfortunately he's a pretty terrible base runner. And while Grady did struggle in the OBP department, he at least has shown the ability to get on base at the ML level. Brantley shouldn't be hitting higher than 6th really. He actually is a very good fit for the 6-hole in front of Hafner IMO. Has speed (better to steal down there actually than leading off), hit better with RISP and less strikeouts. Not sure what you mean by blocking Sizemore's return to 30/30 days by slowing him down? How am I slowing him down by batting him leadoff? Personally don't see him ever returning to those levels, though would be nice. I do think he could have a season similar to 2009 though (less steals though probably). I just can't see Brantley putting up a .340 OBP....I know you will say I'm too hard on him/down on him, and you may be right but just can't see putting Brantley in the leadoff spot til he proves he belongs there. I do understand why many don't want Grady there, I just think it's the spot that makes the most sense (against righties at least).

Now Kipnis...I agree there that he may end up being the best option for the leadoff. I just think to start the year he should be hitting down around the 8 spot. Ease him in and if he starts off well you then could move him up. If he hits like he did last year, would profile very well up there, and I do think he is the leadoff hitter by the 2nd half.

I also agree it's too early to truely nail down a lineup. Lots can happen this spring and really don't even know who all will be in the lineup (but personally feel pretty confident it'll be Hanny over Chiz).

That said, this is a forum for throwing out ideas....personally I'd like to see (as of right now) a lineup against righties of:

1. Grady
2. Kochman
3. Cabrera
4. Santana
5. Choo
6. Brantley
7. Hafner
8. Kipnis
9. Hannahan


I like Grady leadoff for reasons stated. He seems to be more comfortable there too. plus..he was God-awful with RISP last year. And as you would agree, strikeouts WAY too much. According to studies, the leadoff guy comes to the plate with men on less than 40% of the time, less than any other spot in the lineup (by a good margin). To me, if you're going to strikeout, do it with no one on. No difference between striking out or flying out with no one on. Strikeouts are the worst with a guy on 2nd and no out or guy on 3rd and less than 2. Must put the ball in play there. Grady in the leadoff spot would minimize the effect of his K's....though it would also minimize his power....then again, he sucked with men on base...

Kotchman in the 2-hole would really only slow down Cabrera...who if he's hitting for the power he did, isn't that big an issue. Single hitters who put the ball in play are what the 2-hole is typically about...that pretty much sums up Kotchman. High OBP skills too so while he may slow down Cabrera, he at least gives Cabrera and Santana a man to drive in. This said...I do think he'll end up 6th or 7th in the lineup.

Cabrera and Santana 3-4 doesn't need much explaining. Santana is our best power hitter and Cabrera really busted out as an offensive player.

Choo 5th...gives Santana some protection while still having some pop. Some would argue you want the better hitter in the 5-hole than 3-hole...and you could argue Choo is the better hitter (when healthy) than Cabrera.

I have Brantley 6th in front of Hafner because there to better utilize his speed. He hits well with runners in scoring position too and with Santana and Choo in front, should get lots of opportunities. You want your speed in front of singles hitters too...and really that's what Hafner has become.

I have Kip in the 8 spot....I could see him leadoff or the 2-hole...and would not be surprised if he is there and Kotchman is down here. But I am not a fan of putting too much on young kids. He did play well last year so may not need any kid-gloves. I think the Tribe is gonna hit Grady near the top to start if healthy. The talk of the Tribe promising him CF makes me thin that the leadoff spot may have been part of the negotiations o bring him back too (though that is just speculation on my part).

And lastly Hanny....I still say he starts and Chiz is in AAA....we'll see though. Bench would be Marson, Donald, Duncan, and Cunningham (or Spill).

I think a more interesting debate would be who hits leadoff against lefties.....I think a strong case could be made for Donald actually. Posted an OBP of .424 against them last year. Yes, a small sample size...but even if that drops 70 pts, he'd really be the best option....
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby ironmike » Sat Feb 04, 2012 8:32 pm

In professional sports there is no substitute for speed and athleticism.
User avatar
ironmike
Single-A Phenom
 
Posts: 656
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2010 5:28 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby Hermie13 » Sat Feb 04, 2012 8:33 pm

ironmike wrote:In professional sports there is no substitute for speed and athleticism.


Except talent :s_tongue
Hermie13
MLB All Star
 
Posts: 7120
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 am
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby indianinkslinger » Sat Feb 04, 2012 9:12 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:I may be in the minority here....but am I the only one that would like to see Kotchman hitting in the 2-hole (at least against righties)?

He isn't a run producer, I think we all agree there whether you think this was a good signing or not...but he does do a good job of putting the ball in play and making contact. He's a good hit-n-run guy to have at the plate. I'd like to see Grady hitting leadoff with Kotch behind him. Grady has obviously lost a step and isn't a base stealing threat, but some hit-n-runs could work nicely. Kotch is a groundball guy, it's why he hits into so many DPs...if we can't outslug teams, need to some good situational hitting and use speed (be it hit-n-runs or stealing).

Not much in favor of having two base cloggers at the top of the lineup, Hermie. Neither can run at all unless you feel that Sizemore will somehow regain the speed he obviously lost last year, even when he was healthy. Even if Sizemore shows a return of form which warrants his return to the leadoff spot, I would much rather have someone with better speed, like Kipnis or Brantley, in the two spot. I think it is too early to make this decision but I envision Kotchman more in the 6/7 slot after Hafner/Duncan to not slow down the top of the order. There is not much productive speed on the Indians and what there is needs to be utilized and not slowed down by the one base at a timers unless they have productive power. For my part, it is hard for me to understand why you would want to block Sizemore's return to 30/30 of days past by slowing him down and I agree with most of your post. :pleasantry:


Speed doesn't (or shouldn't) matter though at all when picking a leadoff hitter. That's an old fashion way of thinking. It's all about OBP. Brantley is faster than Grady now unfortunately he's a pretty terrible base runner. And while Grady did struggle in the OBP department, he at least has shown the ability to get on base at the ML level. Brantley shouldn't be hitting higher than 6th really. He actually is a very good fit for the 6-hole in front of Hafner IMO. Has speed (better to steal down there actually than leading off), hit better with RISP and less strikeouts. Not sure what you mean by blocking Sizemore's return to 30/30 days by slowing him down? How am I slowing him down by batting him leadoff? Personally don't see him ever returning to those levels, though would be nice. I do think he could have a season similar to 2009 though (less steals though probably). I just can't see Brantley putting up a .340 OBP....I know you will say I'm too hard on him/down on him, and you may be right but just can't see putting Brantley in the leadoff spot til he proves he belongs there. I do understand why many don't want Grady there, I just think it's the spot that makes the most sense (against righties at least).
Now Kipnis...I agree there that he may end up being the best option for the leadoff. I just think to start the year he should be hitting down around the 8 spot. Ease him in and if he starts off well you then could move him up. If he hits like he did last year, would profile very well up there, and I do think he is the leadoff hitter by the 2nd half.

I also agree it's too early to truely nail down a lineup. Lots can happen this spring and really don't even know who all will be in the lineup (but personally feel pretty confident it'll be Hanny over Chiz).

That said, this is a forum for throwing out ideas....personally I'd like to see (as of right now) a lineup against righties of:

1. Grady
2. Kochman
3. Cabrera
4. Santana
5. Choo
6. Brantley
7. Hafner
8. Kipnis
9. Hannahan


I like Grady leadoff for reasons stated. He seems to be more comfortable there too. plus..he was God-awful with RISP last year. And as you would agree, strikeouts WAY too much. According to studies, the leadoff guy comes to the plate with men on less than 40% of the time, less than any other spot in the lineup (by a good margin). To me, if you're going to strikeout, do it with no one on. No difference between striking out or flying out with no one on. Strikeouts are the worst with a guy on 2nd and no out or guy on 3rd and less than 2. Must put the ball in play there. Grady in the leadoff spot would minimize the effect of his K's....though it would also minimize his power....then again, he sucked with men on base...

Kotchman in the 2-hole would really only slow down Cabrera...who if he's hitting for the power he did, isn't that big an issue. Single hitters who put the ball in play are what the 2-hole is typically about...that pretty much sums up Kotchman. High OBP skills too so while he may slow down Cabrera, he at least gives Cabrera and Santana a man to drive in. This said...I do think he'll end up 6th or 7th in the lineup.

Cabrera and Santana 3-4 doesn't need much explaining. Santana is our best power hitter and Cabrera really busted out as an offensive player.

Choo 5th...gives Santana some protection while still having some pop. Some would argue you want the better hitter in the 5-hole than 3-hole...and you could argue Choo is the better hitter (when healthy) than Cabrera.

I have Brantley 6th in front of Hafner because there to better utilize his speed. He hits well with runners in scoring position too and with Santana and Choo in front, should get lots of opportunities. You want your speed in front of singles hitters too...and really that's what Hafner has become.

I have Kip in the 8 spot....I could see him leadoff or the 2-hole...and would not be surprised if he is there and Kotchman is down here. But I am not a fan of putting too much on young kids. He did play well last year so may not need any kid-gloves. I think the Tribe is gonna hit Grady near the top to start if healthy. The talk of the Tribe promising him CF makes me thin that the leadoff spot may have been part of the negotiations o bring him back too (though that is just speculation on my part).

And lastly Hanny....I still say he starts and Chiz is in AAA....we'll see though. Bench would be Marson, Donald, Duncan, and Cunningham (or Spill).

I think a more interesting debate would be who hits leadoff against lefties.....I think a strong case could be made for Donald actually. Posted an OBP of .424 against them last year. Yes, a small sample size...but even if that drops 70 pts, he'd really be the best option....

Just call me old-fashioned, Hermie. Not only is it true but I do not buy your argument. It is hard for me to imagine a lineup that would bog Sizemore down any more than Hannahan in front of him and Kotchman behind unless you include Hafner in one slot or the other. If getting on base and stealing base is as unimportant as you say then why did your argument for Kotchman consider that? Awfully hard for a singles hitter with no value to be effective with no one on base, which is likely to be most of the time with Sizemore's BA/OBP. There was a 40+ point difference in BA and fewer BBs, 13 fewer SBs and more Ks in favor of Brantley. While Sizemore hit more HRs, which is my point, he actually hit fewer 2B/3B. It would seem to me Sizemore would be more effective with the DH or one of the switchhitters behind but that's probably old fashioned as well. If Sizemore does bat leadoff, I probably would put Brantley in the 9th spot and put the turtles ahead of him. However, there is a long way to opening day. Is it oldfashioned to worship Sizemore for what he was and hate Brantley for what he is? :rolleyes:
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby A.Zajac » Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:24 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:
Hermie13 wrote:I may be in the minority here....but am I the only one that would like to see Kotchman hitting in the 2-hole (at least against righties)?

He isn't a run producer, I think we all agree there whether you think this was a good signing or not...but he does do a good job of putting the ball in play and making contact. He's a good hit-n-run guy to have at the plate. I'd like to see Grady hitting leadoff with Kotch behind him. Grady has obviously lost a step and isn't a base stealing threat, but some hit-n-runs could work nicely. Kotch is a groundball guy, it's why he hits into so many DPs...if we can't outslug teams, need to some good situational hitting and use speed (be it hit-n-runs or stealing).

Not much in favor of having two base cloggers at the top of the lineup, Hermie. Neither can run at all unless you feel that Sizemore will somehow regain the speed he obviously lost last year, even when he was healthy. Even if Sizemore shows a return of form which warrants his return to the leadoff spot, I would much rather have someone with better speed, like Kipnis or Brantley, in the two spot. I think it is too early to make this decision but I envision Kotchman more in the 6/7 slot after Hafner/Duncan to not slow down the top of the order. There is not much productive speed on the Indians and what there is needs to be utilized and not slowed down by the one base at a timers unless they have productive power. For my part, it is hard for me to understand why you would want to block Sizemore's return to 30/30 of days past by slowing him down and I agree with most of your post. :pleasantry:


Speed doesn't (or shouldn't) matter though at all when picking a leadoff hitter. That's an old fashion way of thinking. It's all about OBP. Brantley is faster than Grady now unfortunately he's a pretty terrible base runner. And while Grady did struggle in the OBP department, he at least has shown the ability to get on base at the ML level. Brantley shouldn't be hitting higher than 6th really. He actually is a very good fit for the 6-hole in front of Hafner IMO. Has speed (better to steal down there actually than leading off), hit better with RISP and less strikeouts. Not sure what you mean by blocking Sizemore's return to 30/30 days by slowing him down? How am I slowing him down by batting him leadoff? Personally don't see him ever returning to those levels, though would be nice. I do think he could have a season similar to 2009 though (less steals though probably). I just can't see Brantley putting up a .340 OBP....I know you will say I'm too hard on him/down on him, and you may be right but just can't see putting Brantley in the leadoff spot til he proves he belongs there. I do understand why many don't want Grady there, I just think it's the spot that makes the most sense (against righties at least).

Now Kipnis...I agree there that he may end up being the best option for the leadoff. I just think to start the year he should be hitting down around the 8 spot. Ease him in and if he starts off well you then could move him up. If he hits like he did last year, would profile very well up there, and I do think he is the leadoff hitter by the 2nd half.

I also agree it's too early to truely nail down a lineup. Lots can happen this spring and really don't even know who all will be in the lineup (but personally feel pretty confident it'll be Hanny over Chiz).

That said, this is a forum for throwing out ideas....personally I'd like to see (as of right now) a lineup against righties of:

1. Grady
2. Kochman
3. Cabrera
4. Santana
5. Choo
6. Brantley
7. Hafner
8. Kipnis
9. Hannahan


I like Grady leadoff for reasons stated. He seems to be more comfortable there too. plus..he was God-awful with RISP last year. And as you would agree, strikeouts WAY too much. According to studies, the leadoff guy comes to the plate with men on less than 40% of the time, less than any other spot in the lineup (by a good margin). To me, if you're going to strikeout, do it with no one on. No difference between striking out or flying out with no one on. Strikeouts are the worst with a guy on 2nd and no out or guy on 3rd and less than 2. Must put the ball in play there. Grady in the leadoff spot would minimize the effect of his K's....though it would also minimize his power....then again, he sucked with men on base...

Kotchman in the 2-hole would really only slow down Cabrera...who if he's hitting for the power he did, isn't that big an issue. Single hitters who put the ball in play are what the 2-hole is typically about...that pretty much sums up Kotchman. High OBP skills too so while he may slow down Cabrera, he at least gives Cabrera and Santana a man to drive in. This said...I do think he'll end up 6th or 7th in the lineup.

Cabrera and Santana 3-4 doesn't need much explaining. Santana is our best power hitter and Cabrera really busted out as an offensive player.

Choo 5th...gives Santana some protection while still having some pop. Some would argue you want the better hitter in the 5-hole than 3-hole...and you could argue Choo is the better hitter (when healthy) than Cabrera.

I have Brantley 6th in front of Hafner because there to better utilize his speed. He hits well with runners in scoring position too and with Santana and Choo in front, should get lots of opportunities. You want your speed in front of singles hitters too...and really that's what Hafner has become.

I have Kip in the 8 spot....I could see him leadoff or the 2-hole...and would not be surprised if he is there and Kotchman is down here. But I am not a fan of putting too much on young kids. He did play well last year so may not need any kid-gloves. I think the Tribe is gonna hit Grady near the top to start if healthy. The talk of the Tribe promising him CF makes me thin that the leadoff spot may have been part of the negotiations o bring him back too (though that is just speculation on my part).

And lastly Hanny....I still say he starts and Chiz is in AAA....we'll see though. Bench would be Marson, Donald, Duncan, and Cunningham (or Spill).

I think a more interesting debate would be who hits leadoff against lefties.....I think a strong case could be made for Donald actually. Posted an OBP of .424 against them last year. Yes, a small sample size...but even if that drops 70 pts, he'd really be the best option....


I have a slightly different take of a potential lineup...

1. Sizemore
2. ACab
3. Kotchman
4. Santana
5. Choo
6. Hafner
7. Kipnis
8. Hannahan
9. Brantley

Few reasons for this... I don't believe they would move Asdrubal to the three hole, although it's possible. I think him and Kotchman are interchangeable. I also think they slide Brantley to the nine hole for the speed element.
Follow me on Twitter!
@AndrewIPI
User avatar
A.Zajac
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3139
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 10:31 am
Location: Struthers, OH

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby jellis » Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:33 am

artgold wrote:I think some folks are underestimating Casey Kotchman.

I've read here, and elsewhere, about his performance last year being well above his historical norm.

However, that really isn't true, he performed well within his historical performance range.

Take a look at his first full season, 2007, and you see a slash line of .296/.372/.467/.840 with 11 HRs. If you take a look at his next season, before he was dealt to Atlanta August 1st, he had a slash line of .287/.327/.448/.774 and was on a pace to hit 17 HRs. After the trade, his performance tanked, but up to the trade he was doing rather well.

Again in 2009, up until he was dealt at mid-season, his slash line was .282/.354/.409/.764 and was on a pace to hit 11 HRs. Again his performance tanked after the trade.

His 2010 performance with Seattle was just a bad year, but his strikeout rate didn't spike despite his struggles.

So in 2011, he goes with a slash line of .306/.378/.422/.800 with Tampa, and hits 10 HRs.

I believe that his performance is actually pretty consistent, and if allowed to play full time for the Indians he would put up numbers in the range of .300/.380/.440 with about 15 HRs. Though somewhat better against righties, he hits lefthanded pitching pretty well too, so I see no reason to sit him at all.

Frankly, I just wish we had signed him for a longer term, I think he will turn out to be a Sean Casey or Dmitri Young type of hitter if just left alone.



totally agree with you
jellis
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 3016
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 5:34 pm

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby theshow » Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:37 am

indianinkslinger wrote:I have a slightly different take of a potential lineup...

1. Sizemore
2. ACab
3. Kotchman
4. Santana
5. Choo
6. Hafner
7. Kipnis
8. Hannahan
9. Brantley

Few reasons for this... I don't believe they would move Asdrubal to the three hole, although it's possible. I think him and Kotchman are interchangeable. I also think they slide Brantley to the nine hole for the speed element.


No disrespect, but I think you a insane to want to put Kotchman in the 3 hole. This is a severe overvaluing of a player. You want your best player to hit 3rd and to me that is still Choo. Kotchman is a guy who was signed to a minor league deal just one year ago, who won't even hit 10 home runs. You really want that in the 3-hole. I know it makes the rest of the lineup seem good, because everyone else is pushed down a slot, but Casey Kotchman is a 7, 8 or 9 hitter. Period.
theshow
Rookie Baller
 
Posts: 372
Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2009 12:00 am

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby artgold » Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:51 am

theshow wrote:No disrespect, but I think you a insane to want to put Kotchman in the 3 hole. This is a severe overvaluing of a player. You want your best player to hit 3rd and to me that is still Choo. Kotchman is a guy who was signed to a minor league deal just one year ago, who won't even hit 10 home runs. You really want that in the 3-hole. I know it makes the rest of the lineup seem good, because everyone else is pushed down a slot, but Casey Kotchman is a 7, 8 or 9 hitter. Period.


I don't agree with you at all, I think Kotchman is a #3, 5 or 6 batter in our lineup.
artgold
Double-A Hot Shot
 
Posts: 1101
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:00 am

Re: Indians sign Kotchman

Postby indianinkslinger » Sun Feb 05, 2012 5:39 am

theshow wrote:
indianinkslinger wrote:I have a slightly different take of a potential lineup...

1. Sizemore
2. ACab
3. Kotchman
4. Santana
5. Choo
6. Hafner
7. Kipnis
8. Hannahan
9. Brantley

Few reasons for this... I don't believe they would move Asdrubal to the three hole, although it's possible. I think him and Kotchman are interchangeable. I also think they slide Brantley to the nine hole for the speed element.


No disrespect, but I think you a insane to want to put Kotchman in the 3 hole. This is a severe overvaluing of a player. You want your best player to hit 3rd and to me that is still Choo. Kotchman is a guy who was signed to a minor league deal just one year ago, who won't even hit 10 home runs. You really want that in the 3-hole. I know it makes the rest of the lineup seem good, because everyone else is pushed down a slot, but Casey Kotchman is a 7, 8 or 9 hitter. Period.

Hey, I did not write that or even think it. It depends on the starting lineup but I think Kotchman fits best in the 6th slot with the DH in the 7 hole. Certain lineups he might even be in 7 but I don't think he belongs at 2, 3, 4, or 5. :pleasantry:
indianinkslinger
Triple-A Stud
 
Posts: 2493
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:11 pm

Next

Return to Beyond The Minors

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron