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Indians offseason moves

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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby TonyIBI » Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:50 am

Duncan is a solid role player and should be a part of the 2012 Indians as a guy off the bench. Nice RH stick in that role. But if he is an every day guy we are in trouble. He's just not that kind of player. His warts at the plate will surface, and his below average defense in left field and first base will also show more as well. Having him in the OF a game or two a week is just fine....but you start putting him out there 5-6 games a week and you are begging for trouble.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GhostofTedCox » Sat Dec 17, 2011 12:27 pm

Cunningham is out of options?????

If that's the case, I don't see the beauty in this deal. Burns will play MLB someday. On the bright side, I guess, if Cunningham under-performs in ST, it's not likely anybody would claim him.

What a way to build a roster.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby criznit2009 » Sat Dec 17, 2011 2:34 pm

TonyIPI wrote:Duncan is a solid role player and should be a part of the 2012 Indians as a guy off the bench. Nice RH stick in that role. But if he is an every day guy we are in trouble. He's just not that kind of player. His warts at the plate will surface, and his below average defense in left field and first base will also show more as well. Having him in the OF a game or two a week is just fine....but you start putting him out there 5-6 games a week and you are begging for trouble.


I think this is ultimately true and just continues to illustrate the tribes need to aqcuire a solid RH bat to compliment the everyday line-up. However - if the tribe for some reason fails to upgrade 1B going into to ST I hope he would get a fair shot to win the "starting" 1B base job, that being 3-5 games duncan 1-3 LaPorta/Santana. If he has a hot spring and we haven't traded for Trumbo or Lee :pardon: I think he gets a shot (a very short one) to play most everyday in some capacity. Offensively I think he is capable of 25HR's 250/335/490 if he puts it all together. Thats not ideal, and only berates the fact - WE NEED A RH HITTER. Now if LaPorta has the hot spring and the FO doen'ts trade for a 1B he gets the aforementioned "starting" job. IMO - if we don't add a RH bat LaPorta and Duncan will get a pretty equal shot to wrestle control of the spot. And yes because of that we are most likely in trouble. :smile:
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat Dec 17, 2011 2:37 pm

Acq. Cunninngham is a low cost risk. I don't like the price (burns) but let's face it he may be a marginal ML arm. I believe he can pitch on that level but more as a middle / Joe Smith type. He probably won't be as good as Smith, personally I'd preferred to have dealt Judy instead.

Aaron Cunningham appears to be a Austin Kearns type... The RH bat 4th OF/ PH /PR off the bench.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Sat Dec 17, 2011 5:03 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Acq. Cunninngham is a low cost risk. I don't like the price (burns) but let's face it he may be a marginal ML arm. I believe he can pitch on that level but more as a middle / Joe Smith type. He probably won't be as good as Smith, personally I'd preferred to have dealt Judy instead.

Aaron Cunningham appears to be a Austin Kearns type... The RH bat 4th OF/ PH /PR off the bench.
Most of the Padres fans are claiming that Aaron Cunningham (AC) is more than a 4th OF'er. It's just that he really didn't get much of a chance at playing every day. They further state that the kid is a GAMER and plays like his hair is on fire. More of a Grady Sizemore-Lite kind of kid... AC's minor league numbers say he's a pretty decent prospect, not a lot of power.. and still just 25 years old...

The cost, Cory Burns, was further complicated with the potential loss of Josh Judy. It would be a surprise if ANYONE would claim him.. but there's always that chance...
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby jellis » Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:14 pm

why the Trumbo love fest, does anyone realize he an an OBP under 300, thats horrid, yes there is some power. But you need to get on base and he does not do it at all, one of the worst regulars in baseball about getting to first.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:55 pm

jellis wrote:why the Trumbo love fest, does anyone realize he an an OBP under 300, thats horrid, yes there is some power. But you need to get on base and he does not do it at all, one of the worst regulars in baseball about getting to first.


If you want to see a "Trumbo-fest".. go to the MLB Trade Rumors "What Jerry DiPoto" thread has been saying.. The group of mostly rabid and non-thinking Angels fans have valued Trumbo to the extent that they'd be willing to trade him 'One for One' for Evan Longoria or Ryan Zimmerman..

I can't imagine why the Nats or the Rays or haven't jumped at that !!..Can you?
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby jellis » Sat Dec 17, 2011 11:53 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
jellis wrote:why the Trumbo love fest, does anyone realize he an an OBP under 300, thats horrid, yes there is some power. But you need to get on base and he does not do it at all, one of the worst regulars in baseball about getting to first.


If you want to see a "Trumbo-fest".. go to the MLB Trade Rumors "What Jerry DiPoto" thread has been saying.. The group of mostly rabid and non-thinking Angels fans have valued Trumbo to the extent that they'd be willing to trade him 'One for One' for Evan Longoria or Ryan Zimmerman..

I can't imagine why the Nats or the Rays or haven't jumped at that !!..Can you?



I dont get it at all sub 300 OBP, never walks, meh defender, he hit 29 home runs so thats all people see. He is a one tool player who well on his way in my mind to being Bob Hamlin part deux.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Dec 18, 2011 10:47 am

...Right now LaPorta is all but certain to open the 2012 season at Triple-A Columbus...


WRONG...
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Dec 18, 2011 2:56 pm

Reports have the tribe trying to sign Mike Cameron -RH hitting CF and RH hitting INF. Andy LaRoche. Both to minor league deals. It's not overly inspiring... Cameron is a serviceable vet at the end of his career and LaRoche a decent backup infielder (2b, 3b, 1b).

Personally the Tribe can use the depth. I wouldn't mind either or both signings. If the Tribe cannot acquire a bat anyone else think they should sign a pitcher... maybe Malholm or Francis for trade depth?
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby danh8 » Sun Dec 18, 2011 3:03 pm

I'm positive that the Dolan's will spend big on a right handed power bat before the season starts. They have always said they would spend when the time comes to contend, and these next two years are the years for that this decade. I'm sure they won't let us down.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby Edible14 » Sun Dec 18, 2011 4:18 pm

danh8 wrote:I'm positive that the Dolan's will spend big on a right handed power bat before the season starts. They have always said they would spend when the time comes to contend, and these next two years are the years for that this decade. I'm sure they won't let us down.


Simply by signing all of the guys to arbitration deals, they will be spending big. The payroll is probably going to jump by a good $20M this off season.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Dec 18, 2011 4:32 pm

Personally, I'm not sure why the FO isn't trying to lock up some of these young guys to long term deals. I know they have briefly talked with Choo, but ACab, and Justin Masterson should get consideration for long term 3-4 yr deals with options.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Dec 18, 2011 6:22 pm

danh8 wrote:I'm positive that the Dolan's will spend big on a right handed power bat before the season starts. They have always said they would spend when the time comes to contend, and these next two years are the years for that this decade. I'm sure they won't let us down.


Set up comments like what you've stated are more welcome at Cleveland.dumb... Paul Hoynesites would be proud...
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby daingean » Sun Dec 18, 2011 7:11 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
...Right now LaPorta is all but certain to open the 2012 season at Triple-A Columbus...


WRONG...


I think it is a pretty good possibility that LaPorta is sent to AAA. If Tony's theory is true that the Indians (should have) wanted him to play winter ball and he chose not to. I think that the Indians will acquire a 1B somewhere but I think that LaPorta would be the first guy called up when Hafner spends his usual time on the DL (they would be unwise not to upgrade the 1B position).
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Dec 18, 2011 10:29 pm

daingean wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
...Right now LaPorta is all but certain to open the 2012 season at Triple-A Columbus...


WRONG...


I think it is a pretty good possibility that LaPorta is sent to AAA. If Tony's theory is true that the Indians (should have) wanted him to play winter ball and he chose not to. I think that the Indians will acquire a 1B somewhere but I think that LaPorta would be the first guy called up when Hafner spends his usual time on the DL (they would be unwise not to upgrade the 1B position).

Agree on the platoon situation for 1B.. a stable lineup written in ink is most desirable.. As far as "punishing" a player for not playing winter ball.. not gonna happen.. not if you want players, especially Latin players, to feel welcome in Cleveland.. ( and yes, I realize many Latin players look forward to playing in their home countries)... MLBPA would have a hissy fit if there was retribution for not playing in what is supposed to be a voluntary activity, as well..

The Hafner DL Schedule memo must have been routed to a different location.. my copy is missing... and the cynicism is palpable..
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby daingean » Sun Dec 18, 2011 11:41 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
daingean wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
...Right now LaPorta is all but certain to open the 2012 season at Triple-A Columbus...


WRONG...


I think it is a pretty good possibility that LaPorta is sent to AAA. If Tony's theory is true that the Indians (should have) wanted him to play winter ball and he chose not to. I think that the Indians will acquire a 1B somewhere but I think that LaPorta would be the first guy called up when Hafner spends his usual time on the DL (they would be unwise not to upgrade the 1B position).

Agree on the platoon situation for 1B.. a stable lineup written in ink is most desirable.. As far as "punishing" a player for not playing winter ball.. not gonna happen.. not if you want players, especially Latin players, to feel welcome in Cleveland.. ( and yes, I realize many Latin players look forward to playing in their home countries)... MLBPA would have a hissy fit if there was retribution for not playing in what is supposed to be a voluntary activity, as well..

The Hafner DL Schedule memo must have been routed to a different location.. my copy is missing... and the cynicism is palpable..


Not saying punishment but in my opinion if they wanted him to go down and he chose not to, they will feel to have a competitive team they will acquire a 1B. And with LaPorta's 2011 season, they would really have little choice if they want to be competitive. If they do acquire a Carlos Lee or Derek Lee then Matt will really have to have a good ST to win his position. Really going down to winter ball would have given the Tribe some confidence in him (if he played well). If the Indians want to compete in 2012, they can't go into ST with a big question at 1B (and that is what LaPorta is after his 2011 season).
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:10 pm

CONGRATS TO DROOOBS....

It was nice to see Asdrubal being recognized for his defensive wizardry at shortstop in winning the Defensive Player of the Year / GiBBY.. This isn't just a popularity contest/award.. it's four equal parts including the fans and baseball purists who came to this conclusion..
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby danh8 » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:59 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
danh8 wrote:I'm positive that the Dolan's will spend big on a right handed power bat before the season starts. They have always said they would spend when the time comes to contend, and these next two years are the years for that this decade. I'm sure they won't let us down.


Set up comments like what you've stated are more welcome at Cleveland.dumb... Paul Hoynesites would be proud...



Huh ? Not sure what you're getting at.. Even STO, andBruce Drennan have said this will be a big offseason for us where we'll be adding the needed pieces to contend. It's pretty much a forgone conclusion. I don't think it's coming in the way of free agency though... I thin it will come like Jimenez ...via trade. Patience.

Lowside, someone like Lee ....but I have a gut feel that a bigger deal is coming. One that may include Tomlin/Perez/Laporta and bringing in a strong RH bat. No way they leave a team as structurally flawed intact heading into this season like last year ..no way...they aren't that cheap or dumb..
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:20 pm

danh8 wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
danh8 wrote:I'm positive that the Dolan's will spend big on a right handed power bat before the season starts. They have always said they would spend when the time comes to contend, and these next two years are the years for that this decade. I'm sure they won't let us down.


Set up comments like what you've stated are more welcome at Cleveland.dumb... Paul Hoynesites would be proud...



Huh ? Not sure what you're getting at.. Even STO, andBruce Drennan have said this will be a big offseason for us where we'll be adding the needed pieces to contend. It's pretty much a forgone conclusion. I don't think it's coming in the way of free agency though... I thin it will come like Jimenez ...via trade. Patience.

Lowside, someone like Lee ....but I have a gut feel that a bigger deal is coming. One that may include Tomlin/Perez/Laporta and bringing in a strong RH bat. No way they leave a team as structurally flawed intact heading into this season like last year ..no way...they aren't that cheap or dumb..


Perhaps it's more about 'who' said the Indians would be making changes.. as opposed to what the changes are.. Bruce Drennan's job is to entertain a fan base.. Staying the course, keeping patient, not rocking the boat, doesn't excite the fans of his show..

The structural flaws of this can be corrected by the pieces that exist on the team:

(1)Catching: Santana has to improve his footwork and throwing mechanics.. his BA needs to be up a bit, but, otherwise, he's a wonderful offensive player.

(4)The Infield: The defensive player of the year, Drooobs is flanked by two rookies Kipnis and Chisenhall. None of these guys will have advanced defensive metrics that praise them much, for whatever they're worth. First base is WAAAAAAY too changeable. The Indians had it right to start the 2011 season: They decided on LaPorta and should have STUCK WITH THE PLAN. Unforeseen circumstances prevented this from happening. In 2012, there should be nothing unforeseen.. The infield defense is going to be a growing/learning process. All of these guys can hit.. It's time to see it..

(3)The Outfield: Healthy, Choo, Sizemore and Brantley were pretty good, not great. At this time, taking healthy and pretty good will have to do. When healthy, this is a 60 homer/300 runs scored group. That should be more than adequate offensive production from this threesome.

(5-6)The Bench: There is nothing Lou Marson does poorly defensively. He needs to learn to pull the ball in order to drive it some.His spot on the roster is as BACKUP CATCHER (please ignore the IPI depth chart placing Lou into the starters role behind the plate). New acquisition Aaron Cunningham is a lot like Grady with the way he plays defense. Given enough opportunity with the bat, he should be a fine fourth OF'er. Jason Donald will be the teams primary tweener.. consider Aaron Cunningham and JD the indians gamers. Jack Hannahan will spell Chisenhall, LaPorta and Hafner. Shelly Duncan will get the rest of the the ABs where ever they come from. The extra 1B may be considered the most expendable as there are four guys (Duncan, LaPorta, Hannahan, & Carlos) who can play 1B..

This team has enough pieces to contend if they remain healthy. The biggest problem, there appears to be one too many position players.. unless the Indians go with an 11 man pitching staff, someone will not be opening the season with the parent club.. It's just a numbers thing..
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby theshow » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:11 am

surprised the name Cody Ross is not floated around more. He sort of seems to fit the bill of what we need. Coming of a down year so could probably be had for fairly cheap.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby MadThinker88 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:29 am

theshow wrote:surprised the name Cody Ross is not floated around more. He sort of seems to fit the bill of what we need. Coming of a down year so could probably be had for fairly cheap.


I understand your interest but as long as Ross is looking for a 3 yr deal worth around 6MM annually, I think the Tribe is better off looking in another direction.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:51 am

daingean wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
...Right now LaPorta is all but certain to open the 2012 season at Triple-A Columbus...


WRONG...


I think it is a pretty good possibility that LaPorta is sent to AAA. If Tony's theory is true that the Indians (should have) wanted him to play winter ball and he chose not to. I think that the Indians will acquire a 1B somewhere but I think that LaPorta would be the first guy called up when Hafner spends his usual time on the DL (they would be unwise not to upgrade the 1B position).


Have it on good authority that unless someone gets hurt or he just flat out wows this spring he is going to Columbus. They want to take full advantage of his last option and try to get him right.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:56 am

danh8 wrote:I'm positive that the Dolan's will spend big on a right handed power bat before the season starts. They have always said they would spend when the time comes to contend, and these next two years are the years for that this decade. I'm sure they won't let us down.


I'm not sure why people always felt that "spending" equalled "spending on big time free agents". It was a poor choice of words by Dolan back in the day that was very vague and just opened him up to the criticism he has received since, and deservedly so. But they have never been a big spender in FA, even in the 90s. They have brought in FAs in the Dolan years much like the Jacobs years getting guys on 2-3 year deals or in the twilight of their careers. People forget that a lot of the Indians big acquisitions in the 90s came via trade.

The spending thing is something that I have always maintained was more for supporting the team with a higher payroll, be it keeping players or supplementing the team via free agency or trade. I felt they did that in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. THey extended the likes of Westbrook and Hafner, signed Byrd, Wood, etc to FA deals, and picked up some guys in trade like DeRosa making money.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:57 am

GhostofTedCox wrote:Cunningham is out of options?????

If that's the case, I don't see the beauty in this deal. Burns will play MLB someday. On the bright side, I guess, if Cunningham under-performs in ST, it's not likely anybody would claim him.

What a way to build a roster.


I think it is a fair exchange. Burns is a middle of the road prospect, and a fringe ML reliever. I had him no higher than #45 in my early drafts for my Top 100 listing. Good pitcher, but very gimmicky and really has little room for error. I hope I am wrong on him, but I don't think the Indians will miss him.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:23 am

Anybody heard anything on Josh Judy? I haven't heard any news which makes me think he could be dealt ($).
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:50 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Anybody heard anything on Josh Judy? I haven't heard any news which makes me think he could be dealt ($).

Seven days to go before he clears waivers.. so far.. no one has officially claimed him..
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:31 am

Thanx, G'son.

Josh Judy is a guy I like but frankly, there are a lot of arms just like his out there. He's a guy I consider a bit of an overachiever, and it could be we Tribe fans are a bit bias with our prospects. But that's okay we already face a harsh reality in spending, so let us die hard fans think guys like Dillon Howard and Francisco Lindor will become the next AL MVP, AllStar, GG and Cy Young award winners. Afterall it is all we have and hey why not it is prospects.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:55 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Thanx, G'son.

Josh Judy is a guy I like but frankly, there are a lot of arms just like his out there. He's a guy I consider a bit of an overachiever, and it could be we Tribe fans are a bit bias with our prospects. But that's okay we already face a harsh reality in spending, so let us die hard fans think guys like Dillon Howard and Francisco Lindor will become the next AL MVP, AllStar, GG and Cy Young award winners. Afterall it is all we have and hey why not it is prospects.


The first reaction to Josh Judy being DFA'd was... so Aaron Cunningham could potentially cost both Cory Burns and Josh Judy?.. and AC doesn't have any options left?.. what is wrong with this picture?. Then, after some consideration, the thought came across as: why would anyone else claim a guy with a 14 innings of ML experience and minimal to negative success?.. Pretty easy to see, two major league quality pitches.. a low / mid nineties fastball and a wicked / nasty breaking slider that he throws for strikes at any time.. If Josh Judy is lost, then the AC acquisition would be a mistake.. if he isn't lost, then the AC acquisition makes his ability to stick with the Indians all that much more important..

Either way, it doesn't look like a wise use of the forty man roster..
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:47 pm

Agreed when you put it in that perspective... The Tribe could lose both guys to add Cunningham than it is a higher price to pay. Another way to look is Cunningham is/was and would be available considering the Padres made the Latos trade the next day.

Cunningham is a good risk / reward guy. Personally I thought the Tribe should have sent Judy or Kluber back for Cunningham.

My understanding of the DFA process is somewhat limited but doesn't the Tribe have 10 days to work out a deal, with a claiming team or outrighting him (Judy) to AAA if he goes unclaimed.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby daingean » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:21 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Agreed when you put it in that perspective... The Tribe could lose both guys to add Cunningham than it is a higher price to pay. Another way to look is Cunningham is/was and would be available considering the Padres made the Latos trade the next day.

Cunningham is a good risk / reward guy. Personally I thought the Tribe should have sent Judy or Kluber back for Cunningham.

My understanding of the DFA process is somewhat limited but doesn't the Tribe have 10 days to work out a deal, with a claiming team or outrighting him (Judy) to AAA if he goes unclaimed.


They have 10 days to trade, release, or waive Judy. If they do lose him then yeah I think they overpaid for Cunningham but if they can send him back to AAA or work out a trade then I like the deal. My guess is they won't put him on waivers until day 7 or try to pass him through over Christmas.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby OhioBaseball » Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:06 pm

One of the more interesting things I think with the Indians right now are the valuations of Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez. I just read Tony's inbox. He went from saying, relievers are "fungible", "usually volatile (from year to year)" and if the Indians get a good offer for "any" reliever, they should "strongly consider it". I agree with this statement.

The next paragraph goes on to say that the best reliever the Indians had last year, Vinnie Pestano, is "borderline untouchable". Isn't this contradictory? To me, Pestano sounds like exactly the guy a team should trade if they truly believe relievers are volatile and fungible. Are we letting our emotions get in the way of our logic?

Pestano is a 6-foot right handed reliever without any impressive physical attributes; he was a 20th round draft pick out of Cal State Fullerton -- nobody cared when he signed, nobody really noticed him when he was in the minor leagues -- he had a good 2010, but never was a top prospect. Suddenly, he busts onto the scene as a 26 year old and has an excellent 2011. He was absolute death on right handed hitters with a low-arm slot.

I think most major league teams would be interested in this guy. Lots of K's, very good ERA, WHIP, etc. and he's very cheap for years to come. This is a guy whose value has skyrocketed and nobody expected it. Seems like an obvious sell candidate if you really believe relievers are volatile from year to year.

The thing is none of us know who has a higher trade value; we don't know whats on the table for Chris Perez or Vinnie Pestano. I do think that the market is likely soft for Perez after a less than stellar year, but is probably as good as it ever was (and likely will ever be) for Vinnie Pestano. If you just built a simple regression equation with WAR and salary as the two variables, Pestano has a lot of value -- it's 450k or whatever next year for 1.5 WAR (big time bargain). Certainly more attractive than Chris Perez at 3.5 million (guess on arbitration) and 0.1 WAR (career high is 0.9). It's a simple back of the envelope calculation, but I estimate that Pestano's trade value is considerable right now. We don't know the WAR either guy has next year, but if you believe in reversion to the mean, as I do, Chris Perez probably outperforms his 2011 year next year and Pestano under-performs.
Last edited by OhioBaseball on Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:43 pm

I'd agree it would be hard for Pestano to duplicate his numbers same can be said for Smith and Sipp too.

Chris Perez would be hard pressed to hold that closers role IMO if he continues to struggle into this season. Perez actually dealt with some elbow soreness to begin the season. We tribe fans are encouraged to give Jimenez a pass bc of the trade, injuries why not do the same for Chris Perez. Just Saying.

Btw im not a CPerez fan, was but after some of his comments on twitter (re: Tebow and Christianity) I say trade him while he still has reasonable high value.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:50 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:I'd agree it would be hard for Pestano to duplicate his numbers same can be said for Smith and Sipp too.

Chris Perez would be hard pressed to hold that closers role IMO if he continues to
Struggle into this season. Perez actually dealt with some elbow soreness to begin the season. We tribe fans are encouraged to give Jimenez a pass bc of the trade, injuries why not do the same for Perez. Just Saying.


What struggle? 90 % save conversion rate is not struggling.. So friggan what, his k/9 rate went down.. Batters put more balls in play.. a K or a put out is still an out..too much statistical crapola is the source of CP's 'poor' year.. Every closer needs to have poor years like CP's.. smh...
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:23 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:I'd agree it would be hard for Pestano to duplicate his numbers same can be said for Smith and Sipp too.

Chris Perez would be hard pressed to hold that closers role IMO if he continues to
Struggle into this season. Perez actually dealt with some elbow soreness to begin the season. We tribe fans are encouraged to give Jimenez a pass bc of the trade, injuries why not do the same for Perez. Just Saying.


What struggle? 90 % save conversion rate is not struggling.. So friggan what, his k/9 rate went down.. Batters put more balls in play.. a K or a put out is still an out..too much statistical crapola is the source of CP's 'poor' year.. Every closer needs to have poor years like CP's.. smh...


Come on man, are you serious?

Perez' K rate went down, he still waked 4 batter per 9 innings and he had a very low babip. No to mention the fact that his velocity decreased. When a ball is put in play it has a much better chance of becoming a hit, so I don't get why you would say that it's no big deal that he hardly struck out anyone. Either you truly don't understand or don't want to understand. I guess it's the latter because you seem like a smart enough guy.

I don't see any reason why Pestano's numbers would take a big hit. Sure some of his rate stats could change, but based on his 2011 campaign, there's nothing that would suggest his performance was a fluke. Obviously relievers are volatile which could mean a terrible year for Vinnie and a great one for Perez, but as it stands right now, Perez was a very mediocre closer who was more lucky than good and Pestano was one of the more dominant relievers in baseball.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby OhioBaseball » Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:36 pm

JP_Frost wrote:but as it stands right now, Perez was a very mediocre closer who was more lucky than good and Pestano was one of the more dominant relievers in baseball.


JP, this sounds a bit short-sighted.

It's no secret Chris Perez had a bad 2011. His trade value has gone down and deservedly so. Velo and K's were down.

The thing is, twelve months ago the tune was waaaay different on Chris Perez. He was coming off a 2010 where he had a 1.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, nearly a K an IP. Who was pounding the table on trading Perez in December 2010? A LOT, LOT less than there are now after he just had a bad 2011.

Selling relievers after good years and buying them after bad ones is certainly not always going to work out, but a contrarian philosophy is probably going to work out best on these guys with a large enough sample size.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:46 pm

JP_Frost wrote:
GeronimoSon wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:I'd agree it would be hard for Pestano to duplicate his numbers same can be said for Smith and Sipp too.

Chris Perez would be hard pressed to hold that closers role IMO if he continues to
Struggle into this season. Perez actually dealt with some elbow soreness to begin the season. We tribe fans are encouraged to give Jimenez a pass bc of the trade, injuries why not do the same for Perez. Just Saying.


What struggle? 90 % save conversion rate is not struggling.. So friggan what, his k/9 rate went down.. Batters put more balls in play.. a K or a put out is still an out..too much statistical crapola is the source of CP's 'poor' year.. Every closer needs to have poor years like CP's.. smh...


Come on man, are you serious?

Perez' K rate went down, he still waked 4 batter per 9 innings and he had a very low babip. No to mention the fact that his velocity decreased. When a ball is put in play it has a much better chance of becoming a hit, so I don't get why you would say that it's no big deal that he hardly struck out anyone. Either you truly don't understand or don't want to understand. I guess it's the latter because you seem like a smart enough guy.

I don't see any reason why Pestano's numbers would take a big hit. Sure some of his rate stats could change, but based on his 2011 campaign, there's nothing that would suggest his performance was a fluke. Obviously relievers are volatile which could mean a terrible year for Vinnie and a great one for Perez, but as it stands right now, Perez was a very mediocre closer who was more lucky than good and Pestano was one of the more dominant relievers in baseball.


You're absolutely on the right track about being a smart enough guy..

The statistics that are being used to denegrate CP's performance for his season are just that..statistics.. and we all know there are liars, there are damn liars and there are statistics.. :dunno:
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:46 pm

Perez was anything but reliable, in fact he was an AllStar by default. I'm not saying he was awful or is awful just had a bad yr and his velo. was down. Pestano was lights out and really one or two bad outings by himself and others blew up his numbers.
Perez is s talented back of the pen arm but if his woes continued, he would be hard pressed to keep the closers role IMO. Perez struggled? To say he wasn't struggling through large portions of last yr is ridiculous.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:55 pm

Why would I trade Perez?
His value should be high, but his cost ($$$) should be going up too. There are numerous arms in the pen that could take his role and btw if Perez struggled and is / was replaced is assuming Pestano others could replace him. I'm certain there are some arms (pestano, hagadone, lee, putnam) in the pen that could at some point.
Btw I never quoted any stats... Just stated the obvious Perez had his struggles.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:03 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:but as it stands right now, Perez was a very mediocre closer who was more lucky than good and Pestano was one of the more dominant relievers in baseball.


JP, this sounds a bit short-sighted.

It's no secret Chris Perez had a bad 2011. His trade value has gone down and deservedly so. Velo and K's were down.

The thing is, twelve months ago the tune was waaaay different on Chris Perez. He was coming off a 2010 where he had a 1.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, nearly a K an IP. Who was pounding the table on trading Perez in December 2010? A LOT, LOT less than there are now after he just had a bad 2011.

Selling relievers after good years and buying them after bad ones is certainly not always going to work out, but a contrarian philosophy is probably going to work out best on these guys with a large enough sample size.


That's why I said "as it stands now". I'm not saying that Perez is an awful pitcher or that he can't rebound from last year's performance (though there are some red flags), but fact of the matter is that he had a bad year, despite the number of saves.

GeronimoSon wrote:You're absolutely on the right track about being a smart enough guy..

The statistics that are being used to denegrate CP's performance for his season are just that..statistics.. and we all know there are liars, there are damn liars and there are statistics.. :dunno:


I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Do you think I'm cherry picking stats? Should've used the save conversion rate :bad:
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:27 pm

JP_Frost wrote:
OhioBaseball wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:but as it stands right now, Perez was a very mediocre closer who was more lucky than good and Pestano was one of the more dominant relievers in baseball.


JP, this sounds a bit short-sighted.

It's no secret Chris Perez had a bad 2011. His trade value has gone down and deservedly so. Velo and K's were down.

The thing is, twelve months ago the tune was waaaay different on Chris Perez. He was coming off a 2010 where he had a 1.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, nearly a K an IP. Who was pounding the table on trading Perez in December 2010? A LOT, LOT less than there are now after he just had a bad 2011.

Selling relievers after good years and buying them after bad ones is certainly not always going to work out, but a contrarian philosophy is probably going to work out best on these guys with a large enough sample size.


That's why I said "as it stands now". I'm not saying that Perez is an awful pitcher or that he can't rebound from last year's performance (though there are some red flags), but fact of the matter is that he had a bad year, despite the number of saves.

GeronimoSon wrote:You're absolutely on the right track about being a smart enough guy..

The statistics that are being used to denegrate CP's performance for his season are just that..statistics.. and we all know there are liars, there are damn liars and there are statistics.. :dunno:


I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Do you think I'm cherry picking stats? Should've used the save conversion rate :bad:

The number 1 job of a closer is to close the game..i.e. convert the save. This is calculated by the statistic: Save conversion percent. w/r to saves, every other pitching stat combined.. however indicative of whatever form of insightfullness you want to impart.. doesn't equal the importance of that one stat. CP had a GOOD save conversion percent in 2010.. CP had a GREAT save conversion percent in 2011 in this most crucial statistic for a Closer. Don't get me wrong.. there are several areas in baseball that are not nearly as empirically well defined. In other words, sabermetricians have their place in baseball, but not when it comes to closing games.. This area of specialization is uniquely illustrated in this one most important statistic...
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:31 pm

What about a starters W/L record? What are your thoughts on that?
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:45 pm

Disagree that Pestano was sort of an afterthought, under the radar-type draftee. I remember Pestano being a highly thought of closer out of Fullerton. IIRC he was either drafted injured & needing surgery or had just had surgery. Would probably been drafted higher if not for that. Lots of boardies liked that pick.

As far as his being a short RH reliever, David Robertson is pretty much the same size. Different motions/better stuff maybe, but their stats are pretty comparable. Bet the Yankees aren't going to try "trading high" on Robertson.

JMO but I have a hunch that if we keep both guys (VP&CP) Vinnie will end the year as the more valuable & I've been a fan of CP since his UM days.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:05 pm

I was kinda hoping we might go after Kubel. A LH guy, I know, but could have filled a couple of holes. Pretty reasonable contract too.

Now, after hearing about his signing & the comments of how much his power will play up after getting out of Minn/Target, it got me thinking; what happens to Willingham"s numbers next year? Twinks might have overpaid for a guy to hit 15-18 HRs next year. I don't believe that those kind of numbers make up for the losses of Cuddyer & Kubel. I wonder why they even signed the guy. They can't be expecting to compete.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:24 pm

To get better teams have to make hard decisions. I'm not sure if the Tribe is hesitant to sign guys bc of the arb process with the 7 guys or if they just won't / don't have it in the budget after acq. Lowe, and r/s Sizemore. I thought since the Tribe missed out on Willingham and since the Tribe claimed Kubel on waivers there might be genuine interest. Apparently, there was not or the Tribe didn't want to add the LH bat to the lineup already heavy that way.
Here's where I'm really going... If the Tribe had signed Kubel why not trade off a guy like Raffy Perez or Joe Smith. The Tribe would potentially save $1.5 -$2 mil and possibly acq. a useful part. I'm not implying a salary dump, rather using that money to offset the signing and possibly add a RH bat for the future, maybe a young RH / Switch hitting OF.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby OhioBaseball » Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:47 pm

Rocky55 wrote:Disagree that Pestano was sort of an afterthought, under the radar-type draftee. I remember Pestano being a highly thought of closer out of Fullerton. IIRC he was either drafted injured & needing surgery or had just had surgery. Would probably been drafted higher if not for that. Lots of boardies liked that pick.

As far as his being a short RH reliever, David Robertson is pretty much the same size. Different motions/better stuff maybe, but their stats are pretty comparable. Bet the Yankees aren't going to try "trading high" on Robertson.

JMO but I have a hunch that if we keep both guys (VP&CP) Vinnie will end the year as the more valuable & I've been a fan of CP since his UM days.


I don't remember Pestano in college, but I'll take your word for it b/c you know what you're talking about on this stuff and are a great resource.

I just don't remember Pestano ever being a prospect coming up through the system. He never cracked Tony's top 30. Not really a top prospect, top 5 round kind of talent.

The Yankees aren't looking to move Robertson, but maybe they should. In retrospect, they should have traded an "untradeable" Joba Chamberlain after 2007 or 2008 (on the other side, good thing they didn't trade Mariano Rivera after his first year!). All that said, there's a long list of short-lived success in middle relief roles in MLB.

We'll see. I don't remember what we were saying about Rafael Perez after 2007 (1.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 62K/15BB), but we probably viewed him similarly to what we currently think of Pestano right now. Perez followed it up with a good 2008, but after that he sucked bad for 2 years after rebounding to be a pretty good middle reliever last year (although he's missing a lot less bats now). I just don't think it'd be that surprising to see Pestano follow the Rafael Perez career path, so cashing in on him now could be a nice play.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pestano has a good 2012 and trading him now solely to take advantage of his strong value now isn't smart b/c the right piece may not be available in the trade market. If we have an opportunity to get a good bat for him, I think its something that seriously needs to be considered. A good, young RH bat that we could play at 1B is very desirable for this team b/c its a glaring hole right now. We've got other young middle relief arms -- I think Pestano is expendable.
Last edited by OhioBaseball on Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:54 pm

JP_Frost wrote:What about a starters W/L record? What are your thoughts on that?



Wins and losses for starters are a poor stat to use to evaluate them.. W's and L's don't reflect the effort and the ability of the pitcher directly like a closer closing the game..
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby JP_Frost » Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:25 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:What about a starters W/L record? What are your thoughts on that?



Wins and losses for starters are a poor stat to use to evaluate them.. W's and L's don't reflect the effort and the ability of the pitcher directly like a closer closing the game..


Saves, wins, win percentage or save percentage are basically the same kind of stat. You know what reflects the ability of a pitcher (any pitcher)? K rate, BB rate, HR rate to an extent, so really all defense independent stats. Save conversion percentage isn't in that category.

But whatever. We obviously view things differently when it comes to evaluating pitchers.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:29 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:Disagree that Pestano was sort of an afterthought, under the radar-type draftee. I remember Pestano being a highly thought of closer out of Fullerton. IIRC he was either drafted injured & needing surgery or had just had surgery. Would probably been drafted higher if not for that. Lots of boardies liked that pick.

As far as his being a short RH reliever, David Robertson is pretty much the same size. Different motions/better stuff maybe, but their stats are pretty comparable. Bet the Yankees aren't going to try "trading high" on Robertson.

JMO but I have a hunch that if we keep both guys (VP&CP) Vinnie will end the year as the more valuable & I've been a fan of CP since his UM days.


I don't remember Pestano in college, but I'll take your word for it b/c you know what you're talking about on this stuff and are a great resource.

I just don't remember Pestano ever being a prospect coming up through the system. He never cracked Tony's top 30. Not really a top prospect, top 5 round kind of talent.

The Yankees aren't looking to move Robertson, but maybe they should. In retrospect, they should have traded an "untradeable" Joba Chamberlain after 2007 or 2008 (on the other side, good thing they didn't trade Mariano Rivera after his first year!). All that said, there's a long list of short-lived success in middle relief roles in MLB.

We'll see. I don't remember what we were saying about Rafael Perez after 2007 (1.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 62K/15BB), but we probably viewed him similarly to what we currently think of Pestano right now. Perez followed it up with a good 2008, but after that he sucked bad for 2 years after rebounding to be a pretty good middle reliever last year (although he's missing a lot less bats now). I just don't think it'd be that surprising to see Pestano follow the Rafael Perez career path, so cashing in on him now could be a nice play.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pestano has a good 2012 and trading him now solely to take advantage of his strong value now isn't smart b/c the right piece may not be available in the trade market. If we have an opportunity to get a good bat for him, I think its something that seriously needs to be considered. A good, young RH bat that we could play at 1B is very desirable for this team b/c its a glaring hole right now. We've got other young middle relief arms -- I think Pestano is expendable.

Not saying you're wrong about trading Pestano. By all means if you get good value & fill a need. I read it like you were undervaluing him, which was probably me reading that meaning into your post. You could be right about Robertson too. Last season could be an outlier. It's either that or only one of a pretty good career. His stuff is filthy but so is Fausto's. I'm thinking we could get more for CP & that Vinnie could move right in to the closer slot. Doesn't look like much of a market for closers right now though, at least until Bailey finally lands somewhere.
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Re: Indians offseason moves

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:40 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:Disagree that Pestano was sort of an afterthought, under the radar-type draftee. I remember Pestano being a highly thought of closer out of Fullerton. IIRC he was either drafted injured & needing surgery or had just had surgery. Would probably been drafted higher if not for that. Lots of boardies liked that pick.

As far as his being a short RH reliever, David Robertson is pretty much the same size. Different motions/better stuff maybe, but their stats are pretty comparable. Bet the Yankees aren't going to try "trading high" on Robertson.

JMO but I have a hunch that if we keep both guys (VP&CP) Vinnie will end the year as the more valuable & I've been a fan of CP since his UM days.


I don't remember Pestano in college, but I'll take your word for it b/c you know what you're talking about on this stuff and are a great resource.

I just don't remember Pestano ever being a prospect coming up through the system. He never cracked Tony's top 30. Not really a top prospect, top 5 round kind of talent.

The Yankees aren't looking to move Robertson, but maybe they should. In retrospect, they should have traded an "untradeable" Joba Chamberlain after 2007 or 2008 (on the other side, good thing they didn't trade Mariano Rivera after his first year!). All that said, there's a long list of short-lived success in middle relief roles in MLB.

We'll see. I don't remember what we were saying about Rafael Perez after 2007 (1.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 62K/15BB), but we probably viewed him similarly to what we currently think of Pestano right now. Perez followed it up with a good 2008, but after that he sucked bad for 2 years after rebounding to be a pretty good middle reliever last year (although he's missing a lot less bats now). I just don't think it'd be that surprising to see Pestano follow the Rafael Perez career path, so cashing in on him now could be a nice play.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pestano has a good 2012 and trading him now solely to take advantage of his strong value now isn't smart b/c the right piece may not be available in the trade market. If we have an opportunity to get a good bat for him, I think its something that seriously needs to be considered. A good, young RH bat that we could play at 1B is very desirable for this team b/c its a glaring hole right now. We've got other young middle relief arms -- I think Pestano is expendable.

I watched Pestano pitch a few times in college and he was a real load before the surgery. It is difficult to predict college closers but I thought he would probably go in the first three rounds but that ended with the injury. He really did not start to throw the same way with the Indians until Akron IMO. He also seemed to throw harder in college. Without looking at my notes, I seem to recall a fastball in the mid 90s but with less movement. Great makeup then and now. RPs are all squirrels but he seems like a keeper to me, especially healthwise to this point. :pleasantry:
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