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Rule 5 Draft 2011

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Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby 3ProspectsAndaPTBNL » Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:10 pm

Hello everyone,

I'm just started an account on this website. I usually post on indians.com's message boards, but the negativity is unbearable, idiotic, and whiny. My username over there is indiansfan787. I'm still going to post there, perhaps just less often.

Anywho. I just read Tony's nice piece on Beau Mills resurgence. (Wouldn't that be great if he could turn into a .280-20-90 hitter?) I understand that he could be left unprotected in the rule 5 draft? Who else could be unprotected, and how many can we protect?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby Edible14 » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:17 pm

List of who's eligible to be drafted is here.

Notables:
Scott Barnes - LHSP - I'd say he's a lock
Rob Bryson - RHRP - Not a lock, but close
Adam Miller - RHRP - Won't be added after the season, but I don't think he'd be removed if he was added during the season
Zach Putnam - RHRP - Lock
Bryce Stowell - RHRP - Would be a lock in any other system given his fastball, but he's not here
Alexander Perez - RHSP - Probably not, and probably safe given his injury and highest level of competition faced
Roberto Perez - C - Probably not, since he hasn't played above High A yet. But if you consider his defense "major league ready right now", it's not impossible that he gets taken. I mean, if Jose Flores can be taken...
Beau Mills - 1B - I'd give it a 50/50 chance he's protected if he continues to hit
And pretty much every outfielder from Akron and Columbus except for Jordan Henry, many of which are also 6 year free agents (Huffman, Head, Drennan, Goedert, Padron and Copeland are IIRC)

Right now there's an extra spot (assuming you think Crowe won't end up back on the 40 at season's end). There are a number of guys that probably won't be here do to expiring contracts (Durbin, Hannahan, Fukudome). There's the Grady situation, but I assume if they let him go that he'll be replaced by a free agent outfielder of some sort. Duncan and Valbuena are probably DFA candidates, though each arguably has some value to the team (Valbuena as middle infield depth, Duncan for his lefty-smashing abilities)

I'd assume that they'd keep around Duncan, Valbuena or whoever else might be a DFA candidate until they want to sign a free agent of some sort. So I think that 4 spots is probably what they'll be working with. In that case, I'd say that after Barnes and Putnam, you can fill the other two spots with some mix of Bryson, Stowell and Mills. There's an off chance that either Miller or Head is on the 40 at some point this year, and that would cloud things further, but I wouldn't assume that either of those moves are happening given that there are other viable options at their positions already on the 40 (Judy for Miller, Neal for Head).
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby daingean » Sat Aug 13, 2011 6:47 pm

There are currently 39 on the 40 man roster (including Crowe who is on the 60). All below have a chance to be taken off during the off-season.

Kelvin De La Cruz * ?
Chad Durbin
Hector Rondon *
Jack Hannahan
Luis Valbuena * ?
Trevor Crowe Disabled List 60-day DL **
Shelley Duncan
Kosuke Fukudome
Grady Sizemore Disabled List 15-day DL * ?

That's 6 openings + 3 question marks (Note Crowe is not on the 40 but would have to be added on if he was not DFA'd). I would expect 2 openings for FA's (although they could keep Grady and only 1 FA). That about leeds to maybe 7 players added (depending on the 3 question marks).

Note: Thomas Neal will almost assuredly be added.

Edit: I used this URL: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=cle
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby jellis » Sat Aug 13, 2011 6:59 pm

daingean wrote:There are currently 39 on the 40 man roster (including Crowe who is on the 60). All below have a chance to be taken off during the off-season.

Kelvin De La Cruz * ?
Chad Durbin
Hector Rondon *
Jack Hannahan
Luis Valbuena * ?
Trevor Crowe Disabled List 60-day DL **
Shelley Duncan
Kosuke Fukudome
Grady Sizemore Disabled List 15-day DL * ?

That's 6 openings + 3 question marks (Note Crowe is not on the 40 but would have to be added on if he was not DFA'd). I would expect 2 openings for FA's (although they could keep Grady and only 1 FA). That about leeds to maybe 7 players added (depending on the 3 question marks).

Note: Thomas Neal will almost assuredly be added.

Edit: I used this URL: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=cle

been discussed before neal is already on the 40
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby Edible14 » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:06 pm

I'd say there's no way they DFA Rondon given his potential. There's nobody that they can add that can impact the big league team more than he can. Similar thoughts to DLC, but less so.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby daingean » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:08 pm

Edible14 wrote:I'd say there's no way they DFA Rondon given his potential. There's nobody that they can add that can impact the big league team more than he can. Similar thoughts to DLC, but less so.


I agree. Rondon should have had a ? on but yes it's doubtful.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby entertheshoe » Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:25 pm

I'm surprised that Roberto Perez doesn't get more love. Sure he's batting .239 but his OBP is .380. For a catcher whose BA is that low, it is really pretty damn good - tops on Kinston in fact. It's too bad he's blocked from Akron by Chen because he deserves a promotion in my opinion, especially if his defense is as solid as I hear it is.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby TonyIBI » Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:52 pm

entertheshoe wrote:I'm surprised that Roberto Perez doesn't get more love. Sure he's batting .239 but his OBP is .380. For a catcher whose BA is that low, it is really pretty damn good - tops on Kinston in fact. It's too bad he's blocked from Akron by Chen because he deserves a promotion in my opinion, especially if his defense is as solid as I hear it is.


Haven't even looked into Rule 5 stuff yet, but you better believe Perez will get strong roster consideration. He is major league ready right now as a backstop. Remember, they rostered Toregas even though he was coming out of High-A.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby Tondo » Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:40 am

I actually like Perez a lot and hope we roster him. Next season at AA will tell the story but his OBP is tops in the Carolina League (he doesn't qualify but is close)...his bat will never come close to even ML AVG but if he can keep up his OBP north of .350 in the higher levels he could be another Marson...he's an overachiever for sure and easy to like, hope he keeps improving
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby Edible14 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:51 am

entertheshoe wrote:I'm surprised that Roberto Perez doesn't get more love. Sure he's batting .239 but his OBP is .380. For a catcher whose BA is that low, it is really pretty damn good - tops on Kinston in fact. It's too bad he's blocked from Akron by Chen because he deserves a promotion in my opinion, especially if his defense is as solid as I hear it is.


I'm giving him plenty of love. I'd say he's in the top 10 as far as "guys who are likely to be added this off-season". It would make a lot of sense for him to be added given the fact that we only have 2 rostered catchers at the moment. I would put him on the outside of the conversation if there's only around 4 spots for newly rostered players, though. Assuming Barnes and Putnam are locks, he would have to be added in favor of Mills, Stowell and Bryson if there are 3-5 roster spots, and while I'd say that's possible, I wouldn't put money on it.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby petes999 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:31 pm

If you are thinking about adding someone like Perez due to defense, what about Diaz who is one level higher and another premium position (SS)? Really, if there were more spaces, I would add a Perez. However, it will come down to the cost of the right handed bat that we trade for in the offseason (how many of these fringe prospects you can package in).

I wouldn't add him because we only have 2 catchers as you can always do a AAAA catcher like Carlin as we did last offseason. In addition, Satana and Marson aren't going anywhere soon.

Based on who we have
Starters (11) – Carmona, Carrasco, Masterson, Tomlin, Jimenez, Huff, Gomez, McAllister, Klubler, De La Cuz, Rondon
Rule 5 eligible -- Barnes, Wright, A. Perez, Berger, MacFarland,

Relievers (9) – Sipp, Perez, Perez, Smith, Pestano, Durbin, Judy, Hermann, Hagadone
Rule 5 eligible – Putnam, Price, Landis, Langwell, Bryson, Stowell, Miller

Catchers (2) – Marson and Santana
Rule 5 eligible – Roberto Perez

Infield (8) – Chisenhall, Laporta, A. Cabrera, Kipnis, Phelps, Hannahan, Donald, Valbuena
Rule 5 eligible – Juan Diaz, Beau Mills

Outfield/DH (9) – Brantley, Carrera, Choo, Crowe, Duncan, Fukudome, Sizemore, Weglarz, Hafner
Rule 5 eligible – Fedroff, Greenwell, Hufmann, Drennen, Head

40-man count without DL is 39 (38 with Crowe on 60-day DL)

There is a little room to trim fat.
Cuts – Durbin, Hanahan or Valbuena, Duncan, Fukudome
Adds – Barnes, Stowell, Putnam, Bryson, (one RH bat on FA or trade to replace Duncan)

Left unprotected – MacFarland, Miller, Fedroff, Price, Langwell, Diaz, Mills, Perez

Who can be carved off:
Crowe (even though he is a switch hitter, he is weaker from the right side),
Valbuena (we would still need a utility guy if we get rid of Hanahan),
Klubler, Rondon, DeLaCruz (Rondon and DeLaCruz would probably be picked up as a reliever)

From upside potential, MacFarland, Mills, Rondon and De La Cruz has more upside than Perez - so why add Perez unless we trade enough others for a RH bat for 2012/2013 run to create room for him?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby daingean » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:37 pm

petes999 wrote:If you are thinking about adding someone like Perez due to defense, what about Diaz who is one level higher and another premium position (SS)? Really, if there were more spaces, I would add a Perez. However, it will come down to the cost of the right handed bat that we trade for in the offseason (how many of these fringe prospects you can package in).

I wouldn't add him because we only have 2 catchers as you can always do a AAAA catcher like Carlin as we did last offseason. In addition, Satana and Marson aren't going anywhere soon.

Based on who we have
Starters (11) – Carmona, Carrasco, Masterson, Tomlin, Jimenez, Huff, Gomez, McAllister, Klubler, De La Cuz, Rondon
Rule 5 eligible -- Barnes, Wright, A. Perez, Berger, MacFarland,

Relievers (9) – Sipp, Perez, Perez, Smith, Pestano, Durbin, Judy, Hermann, Hagadone
Rule 5 eligible – Putnam, Price, Landis, Langwell, Bryson, Stowell, Miller

Catchers (2) – Marson and Santana
Rule 5 eligible – Roberto Perez

Infield (8) – Chisenhall, Laporta, A. Cabrera, Kipnis, Phelps, Hannahan, Donald, Valbuena
Rule 5 eligible – Juan Diaz, Beau Mills

Outfield/DH (9) – Brantley, Carrera, Choo, Crowe, Duncan, Fukudome, Sizemore, Weglarz, Hafner
Rule 5 eligible – Fedroff, Greenwell, Hufmann, Drennen, Head

40-man count without DL is 39 (38 with Crowe on 60-day DL)

There is a little room to trim fat.
Cuts – Durbin, Hanahan or Valbuena, Duncan, Fukudome
Adds – Barnes, Stowell, Putnam, Bryson, (one RH bat on FA or trade to replace Duncan)

Left unprotected – MacFarland, Miller, Fedroff, Price, Langwell, Diaz, Mills, Perez

Who can be carved off:
Crowe (even though he is a switch hitter, he is weaker from the right side),
Valbuena (we would still need a utility guy if we get rid of Hanahan),
Klubler, Rondon, DeLaCruz (Rondon and DeLaCruz would probably be picked up as a reliever)

From upside potential, MacFarland, Mills, Rondon and De La Cruz has more upside than Perez - so why add Perez unless we trade enough others for a RH bat for 2012/2013 run to create room for him?


Your forgetting Thomas Neal who is on the 40 man although not listed on the MLB website. Plus Hanrahan signed a non-roster w/ST invite (like Duncan did) and I would expect him to get the same offer in the off-season.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby criznit2009 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:43 pm

I am not concerned about protecting Perez - already got 3 much better (all around) guys in front of him and Monsalve is right behind if not even.
If some team wants to pick him and try to carry him all year on their 25 man roster...... I say let em. It isn't going to happen.

Now someone might pick him hoping to trade for his full rights, (much more likely) and if that happens we will see. Otherwise he will be returned. Despite his D and OBP - he isn't good enough to be an ML player.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby Tondo » Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:03 pm

Yeah, Perez probably isn't the 1st in line of those "projected" right now to be left unprotected but would still hate to lose him...that said I fully expect us to trade some rule 5 candidates and/or 40man players (ie Carmona) to make that decisions easier...it just makes too much sense...we absolutely would have to add McFarland, but I think he isn't Rule 5 eligible yet, isn't he? 4years in the org as HS pick...HS picks have an extra year or 2 right?
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby petes999 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:29 pm

McFarland was drafted in 2007, thus including that year (even if he didn't play), 2011 is his 5th year and thus needs to be protected. I actually see him being included in a trade for a young AAA bat that battles Neal for 3rd/4th OF role. And, yes, forgot about Neal, so that makes the rostering even a bit harder especially with Mills hitting over the past 10 games.

We will have to leave off a Langwell, Perez, Diaz and just hope that they are not drafted as I think a player being drafted and sent back is a death sentence (they press too hard to make the team that it stunts their development if they crash and burn -- as the 1-2 months of spring training is a waste as they don't want to change their pitching or swing and risk not making the team.
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby Tondo » Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:55 pm

McFarland is a must add then...gotta keep him, he'd be a 99% pick, since he's a LHP, has good splits and is at worst a LOOGY/long man stash on many rosters...would hate to lose guys like Langwell, Mills, Diaz and Perez for no return, so I fully expect some trades this offseason taking advantage of this depth
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Re: Rule 5 Draft 2011

Postby Hermie13 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:03 pm

A lil random....but has there been any talk (whether total rumor or not) about the Rule 5 draft and the new CBA? I don't recall anything, but that doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

Bring it up cause I thought last time they renewed the CBA they changed the Rule 5 draft slightly (added an extra year for players to eligible?). Could be something to watch/listen for....
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