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2011 Player Projections

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Dec 19, 2010 9:52 pm

Just wanted to start a post to get a feel where others on this board feel some of the Tribe's players end up statistically this upcoming season. Also give some of the Tribe's minor leaguer's projections such as stats and also possible level promotions.

Here's a couple from me:

Fausto Carmona 15-10 3.65 era 200 ip and an All-Star appearance.
Carlos Carrasco 12-9 3.85 era.
Chris Perez 35 svs 2.35 era.
Sin-Soo Choo 25 hrs 20 sb .300 ba and an All-Star appearance.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby theshow » Mon Dec 20, 2010 3:36 am

Grady Sizemore .185 1 hr 8 rbi's 0 sb and a DL appearance
Adam Everrett .129 0 hr 5 rbi's and a waivers appearance
Justin Masterson 4-14 W/L 5.93 ERA and a bullpen appearance
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby danh8 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 9:39 am

Matt LaPorta .262 22HR 76RBI

Fausto Carmona 15-10 3.44 era

Jayson Nix .210 11hr 29rbi

Asdrubal Cabrera .287 4hr 51rbi

Grady Sizemore .240 15hr 47rbi

Shin Soo Choo .308 27HR 102RBI
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:35 pm

danh8 wrote:Matt LaPorta .262 22HR 76RBI

Fausto Carmona 15-10 3.44 era

Jayson Nix .210 11hr 29rbi

Asdrubal Cabrera .287 4hr 51rbi

Grady Sizemore .240 15hr 47rbi

Shin Soo Choo .308 27HR 102RBI


hmm, fair enough but unless you don't think Nix is gonna start much, I think he's gotta get more than 29 RBIs even if it's by dumb luck, especially with 11 HRs and if LaPorta hits .262 in front of him (not to mention Hafner and Santana).


If LaPorta hits .260 with 20 HRs, I'd be one happy man :drinks:
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:37 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Just wanted to start a post to get a feel where others on this board feel some of the Tribe's players end up statistically this upcoming season. Also give some of the Tribe's minor leaguer's projections such as stats and also possible level promotions.

Here's a couple from me:

Fausto Carmona 15-10 3.65 era 200 ip and an All-Star appearance.
Carlos Carrasco 12-9 3.85 era.
Chris Perez 35 svs 2.35 era.
Sin-Soo Choo 25 hrs 20 sb .300 ba and an All-Star appearance.



props for attempting some projections this early. My only thing here is that unless you think the Tribe is gonna be competing or at least playing near .500 baseball at the break, think you're being too optimistic on 2 all-star reps from Cleveland. Even if Carmona and Choo are both worthy, it'll be tough. They were both worthy this past year...and even if Choo was healthy, he wouldn't have gotten in. If you're bad, you will have a hard time getting more than the required 1 guy in. Sucks but the way things go typically.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby osueddy » Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:04 pm

Bill James Projections from The Bill James Handbook

Michael Brantley - .268-5-46 - 32 sb

Asdrubal Cabrera - .292-8-59 - 13 sb

Shin-Soo Choo - .299-20-85 - 19 sb

Trevor Crowe - .256-3-30 - 16 sb

Jason Donald - .261-5-29 - 10 sb

Travis Hafner - .268-16-61 - 373 at bats

Austin Kearns (NYY) - .246-7-32

Matt LaPorta - .257-22-77

Lou Marson - .241-3-21 - 212 at bats

Jayson Nix - .237-9-28 - 262 at bats

Carlos Santana - .280-22-91 - .854 OPS

Grady Sizemore - .265-23-81 - 23 sb

Luis Valbuena - .245-11-51 - 454 at bats (not sure how he'll get that many ab's with Cabrera/Donald)


I could really live with all of those numbers. If we can get that, maybe we can go .500 (which is my prediction for the year anyway).
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby GhostofTedCox » Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:15 pm

Hafner - .275 BA, 15 HR, 60 RBI.

I actually see him as slightly improved. But this year he will be sharing the position with Carlos Santana. The Indians can't play Santana every day at C with a repaired knee (and chance of further injury).
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby osueddy » Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:16 pm

Pitching Projections from The Bill James Handbook
Fausto Carmona: 11-14, 4.26 - 33 starts

Carlos Carrasco: 4-6, 4.45 - 17 starts

Jeanmar Gomez: 4-7, 4.89 - 20 starts

Justin Germano: 3-4, 4.16 - 41 games

Frank Herrmann: 3-3, 4.02 - 45 games

David Huff: 2-4, 4.67 - 10 starts

Aaron Laffey: 2-2, 4.89 - 20 games

Jensen Lewis: 2-2, 3.75 - 38 games

Justin Masterson: 9-10, 4.11 - 26 starts

Chris Perez: 4-3, 3.23 - 31 saves

Rafael Perez: 4-4, 3.82 - 70 games

Anthony Reyes: 4-5, 4.22 - 16 starts

Tony Sipp: 4-4, 3.71 - 71 games

Joe Smith: 3-3, 3.56 - 62 games

Mitch Talbot: 6-9, 4.73 - 25 starts

Josh Tomlin: 7-8, 4.08 - 20 starts


He has us at 74-88 based on his pitching projections (I deleted Ambriz who was 2-3). We have to hope for more from our starting pitching. I really think that we can get to 81-81.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Dec 20, 2010 7:21 pm

If Chris Perez pitches next yr like he did the second half I think he could find a way on the All Star roster as an extra arm in the pen.

I think the Tribe pitching staff could surprise next season. I'm looking for a strong campaign from Carmona, Perez, Carrasco and improved season from Masterson.

I'm looking for 75 wins next season.

Masterson 10-12 w/l 4.10 era 185 ip.
ACabrera .285 ba 8hr.
Sizemore .240 ba 12 hr 15 sb.
Hafner .265 ba 15 hr.
Santana .285 ba 22 hr 90 rbi.
Kearns .265 12 hr and another midseason trade :s_smile
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Dec 20, 2010 7:36 pm

Alex White 12-8 3.50 era and a solid season at AAA. White would be best in the pen IMO but will make a solid 2-3 by 2012. White could be a mid season call up by June. I wouldnt be surprised to see White struggle early at AAA but quickly adjust.

Drew Pomeranz 12-7 3.25 era at AA. White and Pomeranz will provide a solid 2-3 lefty righty combo for the Tribe by 2012. Pomeranz could be a huge surprise and arrive late this yr or at least by mid season next.

Jason Kipnis .295 ba 15 hr. Kipnis should see the big league club by mid-summer. Kipnis is quickly improving in the infield but if Phelps continues to produce at a high level too Kipnis could see time in the OF IMO.

Lonnie Chisenhall .295 ba 18 hr I expect Chisenhall to develop into a very solid 3b.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Rocky55 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 7:40 pm

Carmona: 19-11/3.30
Carrasco: 15-10/4.05
Masterson: 12-14/4.35
Gomez: 5-7/4.44
Tomlin: 7-8/4.22
Huff: 0-7/5.94
White: 9-1/2.86
Kluber: 2-0/3.49
Pomeranz: 1-0/4.62
Perez: 0-1/2.16, 41 saves

Sizemore: .265/22HR/84RBI
Choo: .314/28HR/118RBI
Santana: .295/18HR/106RBI
Hafner: .270/15HR/77RBI
LaPorta: .265/20HR/80RBI
Marson: .222/2HR/22RBI
Brantley: .281/8HR/50RBI
Cabrera: .302/4HR/42RBI
Phelps: .329/14HR/89RBI(ROY)
Crowe: .102/0HR/2RBI
Kearns: .252/9HR/38RBI(traded mid-season)
Chisenhall: .268/15HR/72RBI

Kipnis: .348/16HR/77RBI in Columbus; traded to Tampa for Matt Moore
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby A.Zajac » Mon Dec 20, 2010 8:27 pm

Rocky55 wrote:Carmona: 19-11/3.30
Carrasco: 15-10/4.05
Masterson: 12-14/4.35
Gomez: 5-7/4.44
Tomlin: 7-8/4.22
Huff: 0-7/5.94
White: 9-1/2.86
Kluber: 2-0/3.49
Pomeranz: 1-0/4.62
Perez: 0-1/2.16, 41 saves

Sizemore: .265/22HR/84RBI
Choo: .314/28HR/118RBI
Santana: .295/18HR/106RBI
Hafner: .270/15HR/77RBI
LaPorta: .265/20HR/80RBI
Marson: .222/2HR/22RBI
Brantley: .281/8HR/50RBI
Cabrera: .302/4HR/42RBI
Phelps: .329/14HR/89RBI(ROY)
Crowe: .102/0HR/2RBI
Kearns: .252/9HR/38RBI(traded mid-season)
Chisenhall: .268/15HR/72RBI

Kipnis: .348/16HR/77RBI in Columbus; traded to Tampa for Matt Moore


No offense intended, but man are you an optimist and inflate your numbers. 19 wins for Carmona? Man. Phelps ROY? White 9-1? In the bigs...?
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Rocky55 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 9:11 pm

A.Zajac wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:Carmona: 19-11/3.30
Carrasco: 15-10/4.05
Masterson: 12-14/4.35
Gomez: 5-7/4.44
Tomlin: 7-8/4.22
Huff: 0-7/5.94
White: 9-1/2.86
Kluber: 2-0/3.49
Pomeranz: 1-0/4.62
Perez: 0-1/2.16, 41 saves

Sizemore: .265/22HR/84RBI
Choo: .314/28HR/118RBI
Santana: .295/18HR/106RBI
Hafner: .270/15HR/77RBI
LaPorta: .265/20HR/80RBI
Marson: .222/2HR/22RBI
Brantley: .281/8HR/50RBI
Cabrera: .302/4HR/42RBI
Phelps: .329/14HR/89RBI(ROY)
Crowe: .102/0HR/2RBI
Kearns: .252/9HR/38RBI(traded mid-season)
Chisenhall: .268/15HR/72RBI

Kipnis: .348/16HR/77RBI in Columbus; traded to Tampa for Matt Moore


No offense intended, but man are you an optimist and inflate your numbers. 19 wins for Carmona? Man. Phelps ROY? White 9-1? In the bigs...?

C'mon Andrew, this is all in good fun.

But really, Carmona could never win 19, right? Phelps, White, & Chiz are my fave minor leaguers. White's talented enough with good defense behind him to go 9-1. Why not? Chad Ogea went 8-3/3.05 in '95. White's way better than Ogea.

Phelps has been proving the doubters wrong since he walked on at Stanford. The whole player is greater than the sum of his parts. He puts the bat on the ball. After that anything can happen.

What do you think of the rest of my predictions? When do we get to see yours?
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby osueddy » Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:03 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Alex White 12-8 3.50 era and a solid season at AAA. White would be best in the pen IMO but will make a solid 2-3 by 2012. White could be a mid season call up by June. I wouldnt be surprised to see White struggle early at AAA but quickly adjust.

Drew Pomeranz 12-7 3.25 era at AA. White and Pomeranz will provide a solid 2-3 lefty righty combo for the Tribe by 2012. Pomeranz could be a huge surprise and arrive late this yr or at least by mid season next.

Jason Kipnis .295 ba 15 hr. Kipnis should see the big league club by mid-summer. Kipnis is quickly improving in the infield but if Phelps continues to produce at a high level too Kipnis could see time in the OF IMO.

Lonnie Chisenhall .295 ba 18 hr I expect Chisenhall to develop into a very solid 3b.


Very optimistic. I wish just 2 of things would happen. Pomeranz won't get enough starts to have 19 decisions at Akron though I hope that he pitches well enough at Kinston to move up. No way he arrives late this year to Cleveland.

I hope that Kipnis can make it by mid-summer along with Chiz too (I think that is everyone's hope).

If you think White will make a solid 2-3 by 2012, why in the heck would you want him in the pen? We don't have a solid 2 on our major league roster.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby A.Zajac » Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:10 am

Rocky55 wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:Carmona: 19-11/3.30
Carrasco: 15-10/4.05
Masterson: 12-14/4.35
Gomez: 5-7/4.44
Tomlin: 7-8/4.22
Huff: 0-7/5.94
White: 9-1/2.86
Kluber: 2-0/3.49
Pomeranz: 1-0/4.62
Perez: 0-1/2.16, 41 saves

Sizemore: .265/22HR/84RBI
Choo: .314/28HR/118RBI
Santana: .295/18HR/106RBI
Hafner: .270/15HR/77RBI
LaPorta: .265/20HR/80RBI
Marson: .222/2HR/22RBI
Brantley: .281/8HR/50RBI
Cabrera: .302/4HR/42RBI
Phelps: .329/14HR/89RBI(ROY)
Crowe: .102/0HR/2RBI
Kearns: .252/9HR/38RBI(traded mid-season)
Chisenhall: .268/15HR/72RBI

Kipnis: .348/16HR/77RBI in Columbus; traded to Tampa for Matt Moore


No offense intended, but man are you an optimist and inflate your numbers. 19 wins for Carmona? Man. Phelps ROY? White 9-1? In the bigs...?

C'mon Andrew, this is all in good fun.

But really, Carmona could never win 19, right? Phelps, White, & Chiz are my fave minor leaguers. White's talented enough with good defense behind him to go 9-1. Why not? Chad Ogea went 8-3/3.05 in '95. White's way better than Ogea.

Phelps has been proving the doubters wrong since he walked on at Stanford. The whole player is greater than the sum of his parts. He puts the bat on the ball. After that anything can happen.

What do you think of the rest of my predictions? When do we get to see yours?


Everything I bolded I believe is a fairly good prediction. As for mine, when I find the time within the next few days, I'll post it.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby TitoFrancona » Tue Dec 21, 2010 12:52 pm

Rocky55 wrote: C'mon Andrew, this is all in good fun. But really, Carmona could never win 19, right? Phelps, White, & Chiz are my fave minor leaguers. White's talented enough with good defense behind him to go 9-1. Why not? Chad Ogea went 8-3/3.05 in '95. White's way better than Ogea.

Phelps has been proving the doubters wrong since he walked on at Stanford. The whole player is greater than the sum of his parts. He puts the bat on the ball. After that anything can happen.What do you think of the rest of my predictions? When do we get to see yours?


I have loved Phelps since he was drafted. And I, like you, believe he is for real. Unfortunately, he apparently hasn't proven a thing to most posters and many analysts who all envision him as simply a uif'er at very best. All you have to do is read the posts to understand that.

You read all the time where they think this season was a fluke and I wouldn't at all be surprised that if he won ROY, they would say that it was also a fluke. He's just one of those players who's going to have to prove himself to those people over and over again.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 21, 2010 3:02 pm

White could be an excellent closer IMO but the tribe already has Chris Perez back there. White still needs another plus pitch but I think he's working on it and has the ability and mentality to be a solid 2-3. I'm not saying all-star type but very good. In the pen he potentially could be an all star type closer IMO.
The minor league stats were combined I was saying he would end the yr in AA. Personally I wouldn't be shocked if pomeranz is the better of the 2 by a slim margin and I expect he will move along fairly quickly despite the pitching depth the club has.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby daingean » Tue Dec 21, 2010 3:31 pm

TitoFrancona wrote:
I have loved Phelps since he was drafted. And I, like you, believe he is for real. Unfortunately, he apparently hasn't proven a thing to most posters and many analysts who all envision him as simply a uif'er at very best. All you have to do is read the posts to understand that.

You read all the time where they think this season was a fluke and I wouldn't at all be surprised that if he won ROY, they would say that it was also a fluke. He's just one of those players who's going to have to prove himself to those people over and over again.


There is 1 thing that I have come to understand is that can't miss prospects DO MISS. The Indians have 4 possible candidates (AAA or higher) for the 2B of the future in (in order) Kipnis, Phelps, Donald, and Valbuena (still has that potential). All have future All-Star potential. We will see how the dust settles on all of this. I like Phelps but I like Kipnis a little more but it would not suprise me that Phelps emerges of the four and it wouldn't suprise me if Donald emerges. This year (IMO) is a big year for the candidates to either step up or step out of the 2B derby.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Edible14 » Wed Dec 22, 2010 1:02 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Alex White 12-8 3.50 era and a solid season at AAA. White would be best in the pen IMO but will make a solid 2-3 by 2012. White could be a mid season call up by June. I wouldnt be surprised to see White struggle early at AAA but quickly adjust.

Drew Pomeranz 12-7 3.25 era at AA. White and Pomeranz will provide a solid 2-3 lefty righty combo for the Tribe by 2012. Pomeranz could be a huge surprise and arrive late this yr or at least by mid season next.

Jason Kipnis .295 ba 15 hr. Kipnis should see the big league club by mid-summer. Kipnis is quickly improving in the infield but if Phelps continues to produce at a high level too Kipnis could see time in the OF IMO.

Lonnie Chisenhall .295 ba 18 hr I expect Chisenhall to develop into a very solid 3b.


I doubt White gets called up to the bigs this year. He's spent all of a half of a year above A-ball thus far, and he's not even up for roster protection after the season. No need to put him up in the bigs, especially when you've got 6 starters on the 40 man who will start the season in the minors (likely Gomez, Huff, Kluber, McAllister, Hagadone and DeLaCruz), who all could use a shot at it.

Similar thoughts on Kipnis, as the Tribe has Phelps/Chisenhall not on the 40 who would likely get a shot before him (Kipnis doesn't have to be rostered to avoid the Rule 5), in addition to the multiple IF options they have on the 40. I can see Kipnis being called upon if there's a rash of injuries, but that's about it. Remember, for the Indians, keeping your players under club control is valuable. What's of more value: half a season of Kipnis this year, or a full season of Kipnis' prime? I think the timetable for both him and White has to be mid-season 2012.

Pomeranz, I would not be shocked if he spent all of 2011 at high-A, mostly due to the depth in the system. I think the first guy promoted out of Kinston this year has to be Knapp, and promotions might be hard to come by unless there are lots of injuries. That being said, I do think Pom will get promoted at some point. But I don't expect him to be spending the bulk of his season at Akron.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Hermie13 » Wed Dec 22, 2010 1:13 pm

Edible14 wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Alex White 12-8 3.50 era and a solid season at AAA. White would be best in the pen IMO but will make a solid 2-3 by 2012. White could be a mid season call up by June. I wouldnt be surprised to see White struggle early at AAA but quickly adjust.

Drew Pomeranz 12-7 3.25 era at AA. White and Pomeranz will provide a solid 2-3 lefty righty combo for the Tribe by 2012. Pomeranz could be a huge surprise and arrive late this yr or at least by mid season next.

Jason Kipnis .295 ba 15 hr. Kipnis should see the big league club by mid-summer. Kipnis is quickly improving in the infield but if Phelps continues to produce at a high level too Kipnis could see time in the OF IMO.

Lonnie Chisenhall .295 ba 18 hr I expect Chisenhall to develop into a very solid 3b.


I doubt White gets called up to the bigs this year. He's spent all of a half of a year above A-ball thus far, and he's not even up for roster protection after the season. No need to put him up in the bigs, especially when you've got 6 starters on the 40 man who will start the season in the minors (likely Gomez, Huff, Kluber, McAllister, Hagadone and DeLaCruz), who all could use a shot at it.

Similar thoughts on Kipnis, as the Tribe has Phelps/Chisenhall not on the 40 who would likely get a shot before him (Kipnis doesn't have to be rostered to avoid the Rule 5), in addition to the multiple IF options they have on the 40. I can see Kipnis being called upon if there's a rash of injuries, but that's about it. Remember, for the Indians, keeping your players under club control is valuable. What's of more value: half a season of Kipnis this year, or a full season of Kipnis' prime? I think the timetable for both him and White has to be mid-season 2012.

Pomeranz, I would not be shocked if he spent all of 2011 at high-A, mostly due to the depth in the system. I think the first guy promoted out of Kinston this year has to be Knapp, and promotions might be hard to come by unless there are lots of injuries. That being said, I do think Pom will get promoted at some point. But I don't expect him to be spending the bulk of his season at Akron.


Why? He's younger than Pom and less advanced pitch wise. Unless Pom bombs at Kinston, he should be at Akron by the end of the year regardless of depth. You drafted him 5th overall and he's an advanced college pitcher. He should move pretty quick through the system.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Edible14 » Wed Dec 22, 2010 9:57 pm

Hermie13 wrote:Why? He's younger than Pom and less advanced pitch wise. Unless Pom bombs at Kinston, he should be at Akron by the end of the year regardless of depth. You drafted him 5th overall and he's an advanced college pitcher. He should move pretty quick through the system.


Point taken. I guess I'm just impatient with Knapp. I'm anxious to see him excel and start moving up the organizational ladder, as I view him as the top pitching prospect in the system. He is probably going to need to be rostered after 2012 (Pom won't need to be rostered for 3 years) so I'd like him to be at least in Columbus by then, hopefully at least close to major-league ready. It's probably a moot point, as I expect injuries/trades/ineffectiveness to prompt both of them to end up in Akron at some point.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Wed Dec 22, 2010 10:04 pm

Disagree about Pomeranz if he pitches well I think he will move, there's plenty of arms but injuries can and will occur --Hector Rondon--.

If kipnis is hitting .300+ and showing improvement at 2base and others struggle Kip could get a shot.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Wed Dec 22, 2010 10:38 pm

Edible14 wrote:(Pom won't need to be rostered for 3 years)

I think you're being a bit too even handed with all prospects/minor leaguers... painting them with the same brush. The rules and time-tables are going to be different for different players. High ceiling/priority guys like Knapp and Pomeranz usually don't have to wait for roster opportunities to open up at the level above them. When they're ready for promotion, they'll get the promotion, and some lesser player will be the odd man out (moved into another role, demoted, etc).

Plus, not all high ceiling/priority guys are going to be treated the same either. Knapp is young and has some questions about his health/durability, so I'm sure the organization will be a bit less aggressive in pushing and promoting him than Pomeranz. It doesn't much matter that he's already been in the system or whether he needs roster protection sooner than Pomeranz. They're likely to use most of Knapp's option years to develop and transition him to the major league roster. Roster protection should be a non-factor in Pomeranz's assent to the majors. He's a 22-year-old college product taken high in the first round and should advance quickly. There's no point holding Pomeranz back just because he wouldn't need to be rostered. Three years from now he's either going to be on the major league roster or be considered a bust (just look to Alex White, who stands a very good chance of being on the major league roster before the end of his second pro season).
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Edible14 » Wed Dec 22, 2010 10:49 pm

I don't have a problem with rostering White sometime in 2012, but I don't think you need to do it this year given that there's 11 starters on the 40 who could all use the time in the bigs (not including Rondon or Laffey). Especially considering you'd be pushing him up to start now - in a year where you don't expect to contend - at the expense of a year you could otherwise have him under club control during his "peak" years. Pomeranz I can see being put on a similar timetable depending on how he does: 2 1/2 years in the minors, called up mid 2013. That changes, of course, if the Indians are contending and Pomeranz is blowing everyone away in the minors.

The goal is not "get him here as soon as possible" in my book, it's "have him here when he's going to be at his best".
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Wed Dec 22, 2010 11:25 pm

Edible14 wrote:The goal is not "get him here as soon as possible" in my book, it's "have him here when he's going to be at his best".

Doesn't seem to jibe with your wish for Knapp to be promoted quickly and take the slow road with Pomeranz, but anyway…

I think that's where the June "super 2 deadline" comes into play. You can push back some of the consequences of the service clock by waiting until then, but I think pushing back a kid's major league arrival by a year or more becomes counterproductive, and if it's really obvious, could even bring up some questions/trouble for your organization. There's no way I'd add Alex White (or any prospect of that ability) to the roster and call him up before June, unless the team is desperately in win now mode and needs him (which obviously won't be the case in 2011). However, you have to consider that for future years as well. So if White is dominating AAA hitters in July, are you going to start his time clock this year, wait until next April (which I don't believe would really reap any further benefits), or risk letting him stagnate in AAA until June 2012?
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Edible14 » Thu Dec 23, 2010 3:49 am

Pork Chop Pough wrote:
Edible14 wrote:The goal is not "get him here as soon as possible" in my book, it's "have him here when he's going to be at his best".

Doesn't seem to jibe with your wish for Knapp to be promoted quickly and take the slow road with Pomeranz, but anyway…


I'm not advocating for Knapp to be in Cleveland anytime in the next 2 years, I'd just like to see him in Akron by year's end, and Columbus at some point next year. If he starts pitching like a FOR starter like we all hope he will, I think it'll happen. I think you might be right about Pomeranz being first up, but I'd hope they're both close to the front of the line for that promotion. I make a big distinction in my head between A-ball and AA/AAA, in terms of the competition you face. Ideally, I'd like to see both facing major league-type hitters soon

So if White is dominating AAA hitters in July, are you going to start his time clock this year, wait until next April (which I don't believe would really reap any further benefits), or risk letting him stagnate in AAA until June 2012?


No point in losing a year of the guy's prime while you're not contending. White still has some things to work on, such as building up his endurance and working on his secondary stuff. Even if he does really well, I think you can justify keeping a guy between AA and AAA for a year and a half (half of 2010, all of 2011). Especially when there's already 11 starting options on the 40. I guess I just don't think that keeping him in AAA all this year counts as "stagnating" his progress. If anything, it's getting him used to being a professional pitcher.

If White is lights-out at AAA this year, I think you wait for ST. If he outperforms the other starters there, then you make room on the roster. If you think you have better options, or that he needs to still work on things, you wait. But I'm saying no way White should be up in Cleveland in 2011.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Dec 23, 2010 8:10 am

Alex White could follow the path of Carlos Carrasco.. A full season in the upper minors followed by a September callup, followed by starting the 2012 season in AAA Columbus with a post super 2 call up in Late May/Early June. Along with continued development of his considerable physical talents, the mental confidence he'll need when facing MLB level hitters will also be developed.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Dec 23, 2010 10:46 am

GeronimoSon wrote:Alex White could follow the path of Carlos Carrasco.. A full season in the upper minors followed by a September callup, followed by starting the 2012 season in AAA Columbus with a post super 2 call up in Late May/Early June. Along with continued development of his considerable physical talents, the mental confidence he'll need when facing MLB level hitters will also be developed.

You could well be right but I would tend to think that White would stay in Cleveland or return to Columbus depending upon his success. I am not sure I see much similarity between Carrasco and White but I like both as potential MOR-FOR pitchers in Cleveland's future. :pleasantry:
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Dec 23, 2010 4:43 pm

If either or both end up as MOR-FOR or evern BOR.. I'll be thrilled...
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Dec 23, 2010 9:52 pm

@ G' Son... personally I wouldnt be surprised to see Carrasco emerge as the best pitcher on the staff in a cpl yrs.

White IMO could be a dominate bullpen arm, but should be a successful 2-3.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Dec 27, 2010 9:32 pm

I'm wavering on Nick Weglarz.... Is he going to be an impact bat in the lineup or a perennial prospect. His bat could equate to 30-40 hrs if he could stay healthy... His injury history is concerning when they continually mount up a red flag goes up. Hopefully Weglarz becomes the Adam Dunn of the tribes lineup, at worst he could be another Russ Branyan, as much as I hate to say it.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby osueddy » Tue Dec 28, 2010 12:30 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:I'm wavering on Nick Weglarz.... Is he going to be an impact bat in the lineup or a perennial prospect. His bat could equate to 30-40 hrs if he could stay healthy... His injury history is concerning when they continually mount up a red flag goes up. Hopefully Weglarz becomes the Adam Dunn of the tribes lineup, at worst he could be another Russ Branyan, as much as I hate to say it.


Where would you rank Weglarz and Washington in terms of prospect rankings (comparing the two)?
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby artgold » Tue Dec 28, 2010 2:08 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:I'm wavering on Nick Weglarz.... Is he going to be an impact bat in the lineup or a perennial prospect. His bat could equate to 30-40 hrs if he could stay healthy... His injury history is concerning when they continually mount up a red flag goes up. Hopefully Weglarz becomes the Adam Dunn of the tribes lineup, at worst he could be another Russ Branyan, as much as I hate to say it.


Wow, I think you might be a little bit high on his ceiling, but I certainly hope you are right.

Frankly, I have him down more in the potential range of Matt Stairs, who was quite a decent hitter when he was younger:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ma01.shtml
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Dec 28, 2010 7:08 pm

I ranked Washington 4 overall, and weglarz 7th overall. I love Washington speed and bat and if he was solid defensively I would probably move him up to the second spot overall. I like Weglarz and think he could put up Dunn like numbers 30- 40 hrs with 200 k's or or similar to Russ Branyan a late bloomer with 20- 30 hrs. Washington speed, bat and good power are intriguing for a possible top of the lineup hitter. Personally I believe Weglarz is a high ceiling guy and a high floor....20 hrs is pretty good but I think everyone expects better.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Dec 29, 2010 9:51 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:@ G' Son... personally I wouldnt be surprised to see Carrasco emerge as the best pitcher on the staff in a cpl yrs.

White IMO could be a dominate bullpen arm, but should be a successful 2-3.
It would be thrilling to see Alex White become a dominating bullpen arm.. or successful M.O.R... preferably the latter....
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Dec 29, 2010 9:53 am

artgold wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:I'm wavering on Nick Weglarz.... Is he going to be an impact bat in the lineup or a perennial prospect. His bat could equate to 30-40 hrs if he could stay healthy... His injury history is concerning when they continually mount up a red flag goes up. Hopefully Weglarz becomes the Adam Dunn of the tribes lineup, at worst he could be another Russ Branyan, as much as I hate to say it.


Wow, I think you might be a little bit high on his ceiling, but I certainly hope you are right.

Frankly, I have him down more in the potential range of Matt Stairs, who was quite a decent hitter when he was younger:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ma01.shtml
If you're going to comp Weglarz ceiling high.. how about the next Thome?
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:17 pm

I didn't even think about Thome, although I'd agree that could be a good comp., my guess is Branyan is the better comparison.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:48 pm

Who gets called up first Cord Phelps or Jason Kipnis?
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby GeronimoSon » Mon Jan 03, 2011 4:17 pm

Probably Phelps.. he's had some time at AAA.. Kipnis is still pretty raw...defensively...
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Jan 03, 2011 6:11 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Who gets called up first Cord Phelps or Jason Kipnis?

Phelps seems a bit more likely to me although neither needs to be rushed. I do not think it is beyond the realm of possibility that Phelps opens at 3B although that is not in keeping with the Indians' recent promotions. :pleasantry:
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:42 am

Personally I think it could go either way. I'd rather see Phelps in Cleveland than Nix, if Nix is only a bench player fine but his batting avg. and defense will leave a lot to be desired. Phelps a 2b by trade and above avg. hitter would provide more stability at 3B IMO than Nix. Nix's lone positive is his power.
Kipnis caught on quickly to 2b and a mid season callup would not be surprising. He will hit for avg. and provide a little pop too. He could be a spark plug for the offense once he breaks in.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:31 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Who gets called up first Cord Phelps or Jason Kipnis?


Most likely Phelps, who may even make the opening day roster. There is some talk of playing Donald at 3B in order to allow Phelps to play 2B to start the year.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat Jan 08, 2011 2:31 pm

Is David Huff set for a break out season or will he flame out?

IMO he's a aaaa pitcher and is out of the org. At the end of the yr. Hopefully for him he's a late bloomer... But I don't expect it.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Hermie13 » Mon Jan 10, 2011 1:17 pm

TonyIPI wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Who gets called up first Cord Phelps or Jason Kipnis?


Most likely Phelps, who may even make the opening day roster. There is some talk of playing Donald at 3B in order to allow Phelps to play 2B to start the year.


Heard this a few times too but sounded like it was to allow Nix to play 2B since he's an above average 2B. Phelps beating him out though would be fine by me.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby indianinkslinger » Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:54 pm

Hermie13 wrote:
TonyIPI wrote:
homerawayfromhome wrote:Who gets called up first Cord Phelps or Jason Kipnis?


Most likely Phelps, who may even make the opening day roster. There is some talk of playing Donald at 3B in order to allow Phelps to play 2B to start the year.


Heard this a few times too but sounded like it was to allow Nix to play 2B since he's an above average 2B. Phelps beating him out though would be fine by me.

This talk about 2B/3B doesn't feel quite right to me. This is just my opinion of these guys but it seems to me that Donald is the best defensive MI at both positions other than Cabrera in the upper organization right now. Donald does not profile as a 3B IMO nor does Kipnis. Phelps, on the other hand, probably fits the physical and skill profile defensively at 3B better than anyone in the majors, including Nix. He might fit that better than 2B where, in spite of his improvements, he is never going to have the defensive upside of Donald or Kipnis in the future. Phelps probably has the best hands and technique of any 2B, including Donald, but, mostly because of his size, he is unlikely to ever have the quickness to be an elite 2B. For the life of me, I cannot see a good reason to use valuable time investing in our future at 2B on Nix with these other options. 3B is a different story. Until someone with a future in the organization steps up to take the position away, he looks like an option to cause the least damage there and simple to cut at the time he is no longer necessary. :pleasantry:
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:56 pm

Agreed Phelps is probably better suited for 3rd than anyone one else considered for the position right now (except Chisenhall).

IMO Phelps would easily better Nix's BA and could match his power numbers over the course of a season. I wouldn't be too shocked if Nix flames out, hopefully he wont and becomes a useful UT INF with some pop but he was a waiver wire pickup for a reason.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:31 am

homerawayfromhome wrote:Agreed Phelps is probably better suited for 3rd than anyone one else considered for the position right now (except Chisenhall).

IMO Phelps would easily better Nix's BA and could match his power numbers over the course of a season. I wouldn't be too shocked if Nix flames out, hopefully he wont and becomes a useful UT INF with some pop but he was a waiver wire pickup for a reason.

Batting average & OBP of Phelps should surpass Jason Nix without a lot of difficulty.. matching power.. not in your wildest imagination.. Nix has a classic upper cut swing that allows the ball to fly out of the yard when he's making contact.. But that's the issue.. "..when he's making contact.." Nix would remain a useful part of the club as part of a multiple position infielder (2B/3B) .. The starters could be Donald 2B/SS/3B, Droobs SS/2B, Phelps 3B/2B/SS.. If and when Kipnis 2B/LF is ready to go, then he can take over the Nix role while adding c-OF to his position flexibility.. In effect, the Indians could have four players that can each play any one of two positions, and some three positions. This would allow Manny Acta the chance to rest these kids.. play them together, discipline them..etc.. a good situation, all around..
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Jan 11, 2011 4:18 pm

@ GeronimoSon disagree about Phelps power if both were every day players I think Phelps could match Nix's hr's simply bc his contact and avg will be about .50+ points higher. For example Phelps could hit .285 with 15 hrs compared to Nix who could post a .225 avg with 15 hrs. Nix has more power potential but if he misses consistently and he will, and Phelps performs according to his potential his consistant contact and avg. would make up for the overall power.
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Jan 11, 2011 6:23 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:@ GeronimoSon disagree about Phelps power if both were every day players I think Phelps could match Nix's hr's simply bc his contact and avg will be about .50+ points higher. For example Phelps could hit .285 with 15 hrs compared to Nix who could post a .225 avg with 15 hrs. Nix has more power potential but if he misses consistently and he will, and Phelps performs according to his potential his consistant contact and avg. would make up for the overall power.
Projecting Phelps' power output versus Nix's power output is a difficult nut to crack.. While it's clear, everyone would take the 50 more BA points with the same power production, Nix's potential and history show that he'll outslug young Mr Phelps.. but it would be nice.. I just don't see it..
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Re: 2011 Player Projections

Postby Hermie13 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:24 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:This talk about 2B/3B doesn't feel quite right to me. This is just my opinion of these guys but it seems to me that Donald is the best defensive MI at both positions other than Cabrera in the upper organization right now. Donald does not profile as a 3B IMO nor does Kipnis. Phelps, on the other hand, probably fits the physical and skill profile defensively at 3B better than anyone in the majors, including Nix. He might fit that better than 2B where, in spite of his improvements, he is never going to have the defensive upside of Donald or Kipnis in the future. Phelps probably has the best hands and technique of any 2B, including Donald, but, mostly because of his size, he is unlikely to ever have the quickness to be an elite 2B. For the life of me, I cannot see a good reason to use valuable time investing in our future at 2B on Nix with these other options. 3B is a different story. Until someone with a future in the organization steps up to take the position away, he looks like an option to cause the least damage there and simple to cut at the time he is no longer necessary. :pleasantry:


Donald may turn into the best defensive 2B....but he's still got work to do. Was pretty bad last year, Phelps looks MUCH better especially at turning the DP. Again though, Donald was basically playing the position for the 1st time so suppose he should get a pass of sorts. Nix is by far better at 2B than Donald though (and Phelps). If Nix played 2B 162 games a year, he could challenge for a gold glove, he's that good.


I disagree with your assessment on Phelps profiling better at 3B. Donald being a SS has the stronger arm (though he needs to work on his release). The Phillies and GM Amaro actually commented several times on how they felt Donald would make a very good ML 3B in the future. Neither Phelps nor Donald are ideal 3Bs as they don't have the power, but Donalds swing and overall skill set fits there better than Phelps'.


Also, not saying invest time on Nix at 2B....I don't see Donald, Phelps, or Nix being long-term answers at either 2B or 3B. Personally, I tihnk Kipnis could and will beat Chisenhall to the MLs. While he's a year behind in pro-ball development, he's a full year and a half older and had way more college experience. Donald at 3B, Cabrera at SS, and Kipnis at 2B could be the lineup by the All-Star game IMO (Phelps could sneak in there too). And if Chisenhall does push out Donald, so be it.

At least that's my thinking....and from what I've read, wondering if that's Antonetti and the Tribe's thinking too. At teh end of the day they probably will stick with Nix at 3B and Donald at 2B, but the defense would be better in reverse....and Antonetti has commented on improving the defense multiple times this offseason...
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