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2011 Prospect rankings

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby TonyIBI » Thu Jan 27, 2011 11:39 am

I may have missed it, but did BA release their 2011 org rankings yet?
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Big League Choo » Thu Jan 27, 2011 3:28 pm

From Keith Law's chat today:

"Steve (Cleveland)

You mentioned on your blog that Indians fans are upset at the ranking, are you getting that many angry messages? How much of the drop in ranking is just a result of graduating guys, and how much is a decline in talent of the players still within the system?
Klaw (1:23 PM)

I've gotten one angry message - from a guy who said he's going to use other rankings in the future. Talk about forum-shopping. They graduated their best prospect; Rondon blew out; White looks more like a reliever today than he did a year ago; I didn't love their draft in 2010, and I like Levon less now than I did six months ago. I'm not here to bury their system - I did rank them 17th - but I couldn't see any argument for them to be top 10. The organizational strength right now seems to be in power arms who project as relievers."
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby martyinnewyork » Thu Jan 27, 2011 4:08 pm

What did poor Levon do to drop in the offseason? Jeez, that's harsh... what an ass...
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby GeronimoSon » Thu Jan 27, 2011 5:10 pm

Big League Choo wrote:From Keith Law's chat today:

"Steve (Cleveland)

You mentioned on your blog that Indians fans are upset at the ranking, are you getting that many angry messages? How much of the drop in ranking is just a result of graduating guys, and how much is a decline in talent of the players still within the system?
Klaw (1:23 PM)

I've gotten one angry message - from a guy who said he's going to use other rankings in the future. Talk about forum-shopping. They graduated their best prospect; Rondon blew out; White looks more like a reliever today than he did a year ago; I didn't love their draft in 2010, and I like Levon less now than I did six months ago. I'm not here to bury their system - I did rank them 17th - but I couldn't see any argument for them to be top 10. The organizational strength right now seems to be in power arms who project as relievers."
Yeah.. making 25 starts with 150 IP and a combined 2.45 ERA over High A and AA says reliever more now that ever.. :s_dunno
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Jan 27, 2011 5:23 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
Big League Choo wrote:From Keith Law's chat today:

"Steve (Cleveland)

You mentioned on your blog that Indians fans are upset at the ranking, are you getting that many angry messages? How much of the drop in ranking is just a result of graduating guys, and how much is a decline in talent of the players still within the system?
Klaw (1:23 PM)

I've gotten one angry message - from a guy who said he's going to use other rankings in the future. Talk about forum-shopping. They graduated their best prospect; Rondon blew out; White looks more like a reliever today than he did a year ago; I didn't love their draft in 2010, and I like Levon less now than I did six months ago. I'm not here to bury their system - I did rank them 17th - but I couldn't see any argument for them to be top 10. The organizational strength right now seems to be in power arms who project as relievers."
Yeah.. making 25 starts with 150 IP and a combined 2.45 ERA over High A and AA says reliever more now that ever.. :s_dunno


I didn't see Rondon as our second best prospect even when he was healthy... What the hell did Levon do to hurt his stock? Uhh.. nothing. To me, Kipnis improved his stock a hell of a lot more. Pomeranz... I mean, come on now. We graduated Santana, but bring back everyone else back with a few more guys coming into the mix. Gee, I wonder why he's getting hate messages. What a tool.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby daingean » Thu Jan 27, 2011 5:34 pm

A.Zajac wrote:I didn't see Rondon as our second best prospect even when he was healthy... What the hell did Levon do to hurt his stock? Uhh.. nothing. To me, Kipnis improved his stock a hell of a lot more. Pomeranz... I mean, come on now. We graduated Santana, but bring back everyone else back with a few more guys coming into the mix. Gee, I wonder why he's getting hate messages. What a tool.


Magic Eightball said when Law asked about Levon "Outlook is unclear" so Law moved him down to a 2 star prospect.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby indianinkslinger » Thu Jan 27, 2011 5:35 pm

Hey guys, you know I am not big on these "experts" who publish all these rankings but law is a special case. He was shitcanned by MLB and could not get a job if he paid them. I have been told by people familiar with his situation that he really could not evaluate players like his scouts and he was lazy. Just my thoughts and nothing more. From what I see of his evaluations, and it isn't much, that does not look far off to me. :pleasantry:
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Jan 27, 2011 5:37 pm

daingean wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:I didn't see Rondon as our second best prospect even when he was healthy... What the hell did Levon do to hurt his stock? Uhh.. nothing. To me, Kipnis improved his stock a hell of a lot more. Pomeranz... I mean, come on now. We graduated Santana, but bring back everyone else back with a few more guys coming into the mix. Gee, I wonder why he's getting hate messages. What a tool.


Magic Eightball said when Law asked about Levon "Outlook is unclear" so Law moved him down to a 2 star prospect.


If Law would have provided a legit explanation, then I'd say, alright, may still not agree, but I can see his point. But, his explanation was just plain weak.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby petes999 » Thu Jan 27, 2011 6:02 pm

I can see our want to have Cleveland farm system rated higher - with the despair of our major league team. But, to me, I also can see how a Law or others can rate our system so low - but 17?

When I rated the top 30, I rated based on hope of some of them coming back from off seasons like Rondon, A. Perez and De La Cruz. As Tony says, we have pitching depth but a lot of question marks and potential relievers like Hagadone, Knapp, White and Adams. So, there isn't two or three players that will make you sit back and say we will see them in Cleveland after Chisenhall and Kipnis. And, even then, they are solid prospects but not wow ....

I see this year as a potential break-out year for the Indians system where we can see what a House, Hagadone, Knapp and others can become. If next year, we don't have a top 5 system, we are in trouble as we should have had a better system after trading away all our vets.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jan 27, 2011 6:09 pm

If you list the guys who would be thought to have improved their stock:

Chiz, White, Kipnis, Phelps, Chen, Wegz, Gardner, Knapp, Urshela, Henry, Greenwell, Bryson, Stowell, Packer...How many are there?

Guys who have fallen: Rondon, KDLC, both recovering from injury, Haley, maybe Hagadone...

Add a really nice draft.

I was ambivalent but now that I think about it, Law is an idiot.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby petes999 » Thu Jan 27, 2011 6:44 pm

Rocky55 wrote:If you list the guys who would be thought to have improved their stock:

Chiz, White, Kipnis, Phelps, Chen, Wegz, Gardner, Knapp, Urshela, Henry, Greenwell, Bryson, Stowell, Packer...How many are there?

Guys who have fallen: Rondon, KDLC, both recovering from injury, Haley, maybe Hagadone...

Add a really nice draft.

I was ambivalent but now that I think about it, Law is an idiot.


Risen that are high on prospect charts- Chiz and Kipnis that is it.... White had a good year but hasn't missed many bats which gets dissed by the scouts. Chen, I think can be the next Santana ... don't know why he isn't getting much love other than scouts wanting a 2nd year. Gardner .... we need to see if his sinker is all he has. Urshela is too low for a person like Law to know about. Knapp still coming back from injury and dominated low A but scouts want to see high A this year as he was old and experienced already at A level. Henry and Greenwell are 4th outfielders. Bryson and Stowell are relievers - both positions don't get much love. Packer ... we will see this year but dominated low A because of his secondary pitches and pitched 6 games well at AA but not enough to get the attention for Law.

Weglarz had injury thus is a question mark for scouts ... He supposedly has power but can only get doubles ... I don't see that he has risen as most scouts took him off their lists.

Sorry but I see a lot of hidden talent in our group. I am waiting for them to break out and get the attention that they deserve. But, understand why they are not.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Thu Jan 27, 2011 6:45 pm

petes999 wrote:I can see our want to have Cleveland faorm system rated higher - with the despair of our major league team. But, to me, I also can see how a Law or others can rate our system so low - but 17?

When I rated the top 30, I rated based on hope of some of them coming back from off seasons like Rondon, A. Perez and De La Cruz. As Tony says, we have pitching depth but a lot of question marks and potential relievers like Hagadone, Knapp, White and Adams. So, there isn't two or three players that will make you sit back and say we will see them in Cleveland after Chisenhall and Kipnis. And, even then, they are solid prospects but not wow ....

I see this year as a potential break-out year for the Indians system where we can see what a House, Hagadone, Knapp and others can become. If next year, we don't have a top 5 system, we are in trouble as we should have had a better system after trading away all our vets.

Pete, really don't see Knapp & White as relievers. Both look like starters to me. I also believe that Wegz could be in Cleveland before Chiz & Kip. Wegz put up a near .900 OPS over the two highest levels of the minors in over 300 AB. Plus of course Phelps & Goedert might start the year in Cleveland. Phelps & Goedert are solid prospects, IMO. Wegz might be Thome version 2. If so, I'd call that a wow.

Edit: maybe Wegz never develops Thome-like power. If he ends up being a 50 doubles/25 HR's/100RBI at 1B with a .900 OPS and great plate discipline, I'd settle for that too. Wow!
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:36 pm

Rocky55 wrote:If you list the guys who would be thought to have improved their stock:

Chiz, White, Kipnis, Phelps, Chen, Wegz, Gardner, Knapp, Urshela, Henry, Greenwell, Bryson, Stowell, Packer...How many are there?

Guys who have fallen: Rondon, KDLC, both recovering from injury, Haley, maybe Hagadone...

Add a really nice draft.

I was ambivalent but now that I think about it, Law is an idiot.

I have my doubts that guys like Urshela, Henry, Greenwell, Packer, De La Cruz or Haley even factored into Law's analysis. They graduated Santana, Brantley and Carrasco (I suppose Gomez if he was considered a factor last year), but added at least two consensus top 10's through the draft with Pomeranz and Washington, and Wolters is a consensus top 15 if not top 10. I think that a healthy and effective Knapp (which wasn't the case 12 months ago) should definitely be a point in favor of the current system. The one other prospect I thought might be a reason for the drop in ranking was Hagadone, but apparently he didn't even mention him in his reasoning. As others have already pointed out, it makes no sense to dock Washington over the past 6 months when the only he's done during that time is sign a contract. Regardless of what one thinks of White, it's undeniable that he's more of a legitimate starting option now than he was when Law ranked the system #4 a year ago.

I got this second hand, but I believe this is Law's Top 10 for the Tribe (with Top 100 rankings in parentheses):

1. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B (39)
2. Jason Kipnis, 2B (56)
3. Drew Pomeranz, LHP (60)
4. Alex White, RHP
5. Jason Knapp, RHP
6. Nick Weglarz, LF
7. Bryce Stowell, RHP
8. Joe Gardner, RHP
9. Cord Phelps, LF
10. Levon Washington, LF

(Phelps' position being an obvious typo)
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:42 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:
Big League Choo wrote:From Keith Law's chat today:

"Steve (Cleveland)

You mentioned on your blog that Indians fans are upset at the ranking, are you getting that many angry messages? How much of the drop in ranking is just a result of graduating guys, and how much is a decline in talent of the players still within the system?
Klaw (1:23 PM)

I've gotten one angry message - from a guy who said he's going to use other rankings in the future. Talk about forum-shopping. They graduated their best prospect; Rondon blew out; White looks more like a reliever today than he did a year ago; I didn't love their draft in 2010, and I like Levon less now than I did six months ago. I'm not here to bury their system - I did rank them 17th - but I couldn't see any argument for them to be top 10. The organizational strength right now seems to be in power arms who project as relievers."
Yeah.. making 25 starts with 150 IP and a combined 2.45 ERA over High A and AA says reliever more now that ever.. :s_dunno


While I don't agree with Law, looking at only stats doesn't tell you anything really about whether a guy is a future starter or reliever. If White doesn't develop a 3rd pitch, then he is in fact a reliever. Law stated in his writeup that he doesn't see White's breaking ball developing to the point it needs to in order to be a starter either (he listed White as one of his top 5 pitchers to miss the top 100 by the way).

Again, i don't agree with Law's assessment, but if you look at White and don't see a 3rd pitch, then yes, he would look more like a reliever today than he did a year ago before he pitched in pro ball.


As far as the rest....I kind of agree with Law on the Indians 2010 draft. I did like it...but didn't love it. I may be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure Law was one of the people that saw Wolters as a future 2B and not SS, so that would take the 2010 draft down a lot as we are loaded with 2B guys. Pomeranz was a good get...but in a good year, he wouldn't have gone 5th. And with how Levon looked this spring and the lingering shoulder issue, I again can see why he didn't like him as much....though he did like him enough to rank him the Tribe's 10th best prospect. But he did list him as a LFer...so probably doesn't like his arm in CF right now. Levon's bat in LF......not a good 2nd round pick. In CF though is a different story.


I do think 17 was a bit low though, agree with people there...but with how he ranked guys, I can understand being out of the top 10. Indians top guys have way too many question marks.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Hermie13 » Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:43 pm

Pork Chop Pough wrote:I got this second hand, but I believe this is Law's Top 10 for the Tribe (with Top 100 rankings in parentheses):

1. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B (39)
2. Jason Kipnis, 2B (56)
3. Drew Pomeranz, LHP (60)
4. Alex White, RHP
5. Jason Knapp, RHP
6. Nick Weglarz, LF
7. Bryce Stowell, RHP
8. Joe Gardner, RHP
9. Cord Phelps, LF
10. Levon Washington, LF

(Phelps' position being an obvious typo)


This is Law's top 10 for Cleveland......I was about to post about Phelps' position. That is what is listed on ESPN (LF).....not sure if it is a typo or if Law is projecting him to LF (would be odd since he has Weglarz and Levon in LF).
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:50 pm

The one thing I will say about Law is that he basically said of Kipnis that at worst he's an everyday second baseman, but can also very well be an all-star caliber player.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby OhioBaseball » Fri Jan 28, 2011 12:37 am

Come on, guys. Does Law have any reason to disparage Indians prospects? No, he just gave his honest opinion of the Indians farm system. Scouts have different opinions on players and just b/c his doesn't jive with what you think doesn't mean ESPN is out to get the Indians. Alex White isn't a slam dunk pitching prospect; some guys aren't going to like him. Prospects don't always work out how you hope. Go back and look old Indians top prospect lists. We all probably expect the same out of Alex White that we expected from Jeremy Sowers five years ago. I expect White will be more successful, but who knows? Most prospects will fail and you've got to look at them critically. Michael Aubrey was going to be Sean Casey at worst. Adam Miller and Chuck Lofgren were the Indians #1 and #2 prospects, respectively, in 2007 and 2008 (BA rankings). Might not be fair to criticize Miller, but I'd bet people would have taken offense to someone saying Lofgren would be lucky to ever get a major league middle relief gig three or four years ago.

Law is a really smart guy. He studied econ at Harvard, got an MBA from a strong school and worked his way into a personnel position with a major league team. None of that is easy to do. I do think he lacks charisma, but the guy knows what he's talking about. I'm not saying his word is gospel (far from it), but its OK to be critical sometimes.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Pork Chop Pough » Fri Jan 28, 2011 3:30 am

OhioBaseball wrote:Come on, guys. Does Law have any reason to disparage Indians prospects? No, he just gave his honest opinion of the Indians farm system. Scouts have different opinions on players and just b/c his doesn't jive with what you think doesn't mean ESPN is out to get the Indians. Alex White isn't a slam dunk pitching prospect; some guys aren't going to like him. Prospects don't always work out how you hope. Go back and look old Indians top prospect lists. We all probably expect the same out of Alex White that we expected from Jeremy Sowers five years ago. I expect White will be more successful, but who knows? Most prospects will fail and you've got to look at them critically. Michael Aubrey was going to be Sean Casey at worst. Adam Miller and Chuck Lofgren were the Indians #1 and #2 prospects, respectively, in 2007 and 2008 (BA rankings). Might not be fair to criticize Miller, but I'd bet people would have taken offense to someone saying Lofgren would be lucky to ever get a major league middle relief gig three or four years ago.

Law is a really smart guy. He studied econ at Harvard, got an MBA from a strong school and worked his way into a personnel position with a major league team. None of that is easy to do. I do think he lacks charisma, but the guy knows what he's talking about. I'm not saying his word is gospel (far from it), but its OK to be critical sometimes.


I won't speak for anyone else, but my problem isn't so much with his ranking the system 17th as it is with his complete lack of logic in doing so after he ranked it 4th just a year ago. However, he's also going to be alone in ranking the system so low. Sickels has already rated the Cleveland system 7th best in the game, and while Goldstein hasn't released organizational rankings, he stated in his top 10: "An excellent 2010 draft adds more talent to one of the deepest in the game"... so it's not a stretch to think he'll have them much higher than 17th.

Law might be a "really smart guy", and I do like that he'll go out a limb and say what he thinks. That said, he's also an ass and has certainly made his share of bad predictions and arguments in the past. Having seen how he interacts in a private forum for a couple months a few years ago, I'll attest that the general opinions of him are true - he doesn't play well with others, and he'll usually choose to look dumb rather than learn from his mistakes and change his mind.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby petes999 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 4:38 am

Rocky55 wrote:Pete, really don't see Knapp & White as relievers. Both look like starters to me. I also believe that Wegz could be in Cleveland before Chiz & Kip. Wegz put up a near .900 OPS over the two highest levels of the minors in over 300 AB. Plus of course Phelps & Goedert might start the year in Cleveland. Phelps & Goedert are solid prospects, IMO. Wegz might be Thome version 2. If so, I'd call that a wow.

Edit: maybe Wegz never develops Thome-like power. If he ends up being a 50 doubles/25 HR's/100RBI at 1B with a .900 OPS and great plate discipline, I'd settle for that too. Wow!


Rocky -- I didn't really want to get into an argument about our prospects. I agree with most of what you say. My point was there are enough red flags that came up with our prospects that will keep the casual national scout leary. It is not like Atlanta or Royals farm system where their top prospects had banner years. Thus, without getting into deep into each prospects, I can see why a Law will ding us. I expect much better year this year. And for those who say Knapp is healthy. He played for what 2 months or so. Scouts want to see more (a full year). So my point is that while we have some great prospects coming up. They really didn't have their best year (those who were suppose to). Those that had the best years numbers wise (Goedert, Phelps and Packer) weren't and aren't considered the top prospects. Gardner had the best year and became a legit prospect but still had questions on secondary pitches that stops him from being in the top 3 pitcher.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby danboone2006 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:44 am

What is with the Alex White hate by all these national writers and "experts"?

I've only been following the minor league systems closely for about 5 years, but I've seen many big name pitchers against the Aeros, Clippers, and Hens etc. and I honestly don't think I've seen a pitcher just look like he's overmatching his opponents like Alex White. The games I watched him pitch he was downright filthy, saw hitter going back to the dugout shaking their heads.

I'm assuming the hate might be coming from one thing- Laziness in reporting- They see 10-10 and assume that he didn't have a good season. But we all know that the defense in Akron left a lot to be desired as did the offense minus Kipnis and Lonnie.

His fastball is solid, the splitter is nasty, and the slider seemed to be a little inconsistent but deadly against lefties. Only thing I think would help is a changeup, not necessarily to use all the time, but just for something extra for hitters to think about.

In comparison: Kyle Drabek was way high on all these lists (which I think is due to national exposure from the Futures game and the trade talks he was involved in, and eventually ended up being in.)

Drabeks year in 2010 in AA: 14-9 2.94 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, 126 H, 53 ER, 12HR, 68 BB, 132 K's
White's year in 2010 in AA (+8 starts in A) 10-10 2.45 ERA 1.122 WHIP, 123 H, 41 ER 12HR, 46 BB, and 117 K's.

Oh, and White's a year younger this was his first pro year, and hasn't had a major elbow surgery.

What am I missing?
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby GoTribe028 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:17 am

danboone2006 wrote:What is with the Alex White hate by all these national writers and "experts"?

I've only been following the minor league systems closely for about 5 years, but I've seen many big name pitchers against the Aeros, Clippers, and Hens etc. and I honestly don't think I've seen a pitcher just look like he's overmatching his opponents like Alex White. The games I watched him pitch he was downright filthy, saw hitter going back to the dugout shaking their heads.

I'm assuming the hate might be coming from one thing- Laziness in reporting- They see 10-10 and assume that he didn't have a good season. But we all know that the defense in Akron left a lot to be desired as did the offense minus Kipnis and Lonnie.

His fastball is solid, the splitter is nasty, and the slider seemed to be a little inconsistent but deadly against lefties. Only thing I think would help is a changeup, not necessarily to use all the time, but just for something extra for hitters to think about.

In comparison: Kyle Drabek was way high on all these lists (which I think is due to national exposure from the Futures game and the trade talks he was involved in, and eventually ended up being in.)

Drabeks year in 2010 in AA: 14-9 2.94 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, 126 H, 53 ER, 12HR, 68 BB, 132 K's
White's year in 2010 in AA (+8 starts in A) 10-10 2.45 ERA 1.122 WHIP, 123 H, 41 ER 12HR, 46 BB, and 117 K's.

Oh, and White's a year younger this was his first pro year, and hasn't had a major elbow surgery.

What am I missing?


I wonder if SOME (certainly not all) of the love that Kyle Drabek gets is due to daddy being a former Cy Young winner himself. I have nothing to really base it off of, but it's just a feeling I get. Like a lot these writers grew up watching Doug Drabek when they were boys/young men themselves.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 12:28 pm

danboone2006 wrote:What is with the Alex White hate by all these national writers and "experts"?

I've only been following the minor league systems closely for about 5 years, but I've seen many big name pitchers against the Aeros, Clippers, and Hens etc. and I honestly don't think I've seen a pitcher just look like he's overmatching his opponents like Alex White. The games I watched him pitch he was downright filthy, saw hitter going back to the dugout shaking their heads.

I'm assuming the hate might be coming from one thing- Laziness in reporting- They see 10-10 and assume that he didn't have a good season. But we all know that the defense in Akron left a lot to be desired as did the offense minus Kipnis and Lonnie.

His fastball is solid, the splitter is nasty, and the slider seemed to be a little inconsistent but deadly against lefties. Only thing I think would help is a changeup, not necessarily to use all the time, but just for something extra for hitters to think about.

In comparison: Kyle Drabek was way high on all these lists (which I think is due to national exposure from the Futures game and the trade talks he was involved in, and eventually ended up being in.)

Drabeks year in 2010 in AA: 14-9 2.94 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, 126 H, 53 ER, 12HR, 68 BB, 132 K's
White's year in 2010 in AA (+8 starts in A) 10-10 2.45 ERA 1.122 WHIP, 123 H, 41 ER 12HR, 46 BB, and 117 K's.

Oh, and White's a year younger this was his first pro year, and hasn't had a major elbow surgery.

What am I missing?

Finally, a guy who sees White the way I see him. :drinks:
I'd add that the guts, the competetiveness, lack of fear & the way he goes after hitters is something that you have to see to appreciate. I understand that someone who just sees the numbers, which are very good but not eye-popping might not share the enthusiasm. Watch him pitch. Watch him run that four seamer up under somebody's chin. He's still rough but with solid coaching I expect a long & successful career as a SP. Picture Don Drysdale in a Tribe uni.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Jan 28, 2011 2:06 pm

... Picture Don Drysdale in a Tribe uni...
High praise, indeed. His splitter was as deceptive as any pitch I've seen at the MLB level, it just fell off the table when it actually got near the plate. The velo difference was baffling to hitters. He only threw his third pitch, the late breaking slider a few of times (I thought it was a pitch he should have thrown more), each time, when it was near the strike zone.. the batters were hopelessly in front of it. He's got a helluva future as a starter, perhaps as soon as 2011.. .. :good:
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby fallclassic » Fri Jan 28, 2011 2:18 pm

Baseball America Top 30: Cleveland Indians 2011

1. Lonnie Chisenhall
2. Alex White
3. Jason Kipnis
4. Drew Pomeranz
5. Nick Weglarz
6. Jason Knapp
7. LeVon Washington
8. Tony Wolters
9. Joe Gardner
10. Nick Hagadone
11. Kyle Blair
12. Alex Lavisky
13. Felix Sterling
14. T.J. House
15. Hector Rondon
16. Jordan Henry
17. Zach Putnam
18. Bryce Stowell
19. Josh Judy
20. Cord Phelps
21. Chen Lee
22. Chun Chen
23. Matt Packer
24. Kelvin de la Cruz
25. Luigi Rodriguez
26. Corey Kluber
27. Jess Todd
28. Tyler Holt
29. Rob Bryson
30. Giovanny Urshela
*31. Zach McAllister
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby petes999 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 3:34 pm

Find the BA list interesting how high they rated Blair and Lavisky but ahead of Chun Chen????

Also they list Todd ahead of Bryson. Go figure.

At least they kept to their draft prospect list - Pom, Wash, Wolters, Blair, Lavinsky in order then a big drop before Holt is added - but only 40 on their draft list between Lav and him.

Kind of show you how others like Law may be trashing us if we have 5 draftees in the top 12. Usually you see a late first make it around 6-9 spot on a decent team for BA. So, we basically have 5 first round choices (making it in the top 12) -- don't believe that. But, these experts aren't giving House, Chen and others the respect yet and moving them ahead of Blair and Lavinsky who haven't shown anything yet.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 4:14 pm

Agree with pete, Chen & Bryson seem like the guys they downrate(is that a word?) the most. I wouldn't be surprised if Bryson turns out to be the best of our minor league relief cadre. Also agree that Lavisky is too high. Seems like he needs some work but if they have seen him once, that's more than I have, so what do I know. BA has always over rated the newly drafted guys.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby osueddy » Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:11 pm

Baseball America has us as the 7th best system.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby danboone2006 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 7:51 pm

GoTribe028 wrote:I wonder if SOME (certainly not all) of the love that Kyle Drabek gets is due to daddy being a former Cy Young winner himself. I have nothing to really base it off of, but it's just a feeling I get. Like a lot these writers grew up watching Doug Drabek when they were boys/young men themselves.


Absolutely. I think most players who have a major league father/family get some extra hype. Drabek being a former Cy Young winner certainly didn't hurt the hype. ESPN really did a great job getting his bandwagon going during the Futures game in '09. I remember a convo I had after the Tribe traded Lee, the convo went something like this "How could you send a Cy Young winner to Philly and not get Drabek in return?" My reply..."Had you heard of Drabek before the futures game?" Convo ended. I also think ESPN got on his bandwagon because of Papa Drabek.

Rocky55 wrote:Finally, a guy who sees White the way I see him. :drinks:
I'd add that the guts, the competetiveness, lack of fear & the way he goes after hitters is something that you have to see to appreciate. I understand that someone who just sees the numbers, which are very good but not eye-popping might not share the enthusiasm. Watch him pitch. Watch him run that four seamer up under somebody's chin. He's still rough but with solid coaching I expect a long & successful career as a SP. Picture Don Drysdale in a Tribe uni.


Agreed. He wants to win. He wants to prove every doubter wrong. On draft day when he was interviewed and someone mentioned being moved to a reliever you could see the fire in his eyes, he wasn't gonna be a reliever unless they physically picked him up and moved him into the bullpen. He pounds the strike zone, I honestly can't think of seeing many/any 1-0, 2-1, or 3-2 counts when I saw him. Maybe I saw him on the best games of the year, but still...not in the top 50? Crazy
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby artgold » Sun Jan 30, 2011 7:58 pm

Interesting that BA doesn't have Barnes in their top 30 prospects anymore. I thought his K rate at Akron, and his age at that level, might keep him in their top 30 listing. He was 6th in K's, and 13th in WHIP, so I suspected he would still end up near the end of their listing.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Edible14 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:09 am

Rocky55 wrote:Finally, a guy who sees White the way I see him. :drinks:
I'd add that the guts, the competetiveness, lack of fear & the way he goes after hitters is something that you have to see to appreciate. I understand that someone who just sees the numbers, which are very good but not eye-popping might not share the enthusiasm. Watch him pitch. Watch him run that four seamer up under somebody's chin. He's still rough but with solid coaching I expect a long & successful career as a SP. Picture Don Drysdale in a Tribe uni.


White guy intangibles!

Sorry, that's probably a bit harsh, but I love using that phrase to describe folks who love attaching things like "grittiness", "hustle", "heart" and "scrappiness" to players for no discernable reason. Usually applied to white athletes (see: Wes Welker, Austin Collie). The folks at Fire Joe Morgan (back in the day) would make fun of this kind of thing all the time, as commentators do it all the time.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby elrod enchilada » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:19 pm

Good point.

But Bob Gibson made Don Drysdale look like Sudden Sam McDowell in all the intangibles. He was off-the-charts.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Upper Box Woodchuck » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:35 pm

fallclassic wrote:Baseball America Top 30: Cleveland Indians 2011

1. Lonnie Chisenhall
2. Alex White
3. Jason Kipnis
4. Drew Pomeranz
5. Nick Weglarz
6. Jason Knapp
7. LeVon Washington
8. Tony Wolters
9. Joe Gardner
10. Nick Hagadone
11. Kyle Blair
12. Alex Lavisky
13. Felix Sterling
14. T.J. House
15. Hector Rondon
16. Jordan Henry
17. Zach Putnam
18. Bryce Stowell
19. Josh Judy
20. Cord Phelps
21. Chen Lee
22. Chun Chen
23. Matt Packer
24. Kelvin de la Cruz
25. Luigi Rodriguez
26. Corey Kluber
27. Jess Todd
28. Tyler Holt
29. Rob Bryson
30. Giovanny Urshela
*31. Zach McAllister


Am I alone in thinking that Urshela will be much higher up this list this time next year?
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby elrod enchilada » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:55 pm

In late March I will start a thread where we can predict which of the prospects Tony does not have in his top 50 will pull a Chun Chen in 2011 and end up in the top 20 for 2012; and which of the prospects not in Tony's top 30 will end up in the top 10 in 2012. There will be a couple at least.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:44 pm

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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby csowlfan26 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:42 pm

elrod enchilada wrote:In late March I will start a thread where we can predict which of the prospects Tony does not have in his top 50 will pull a Chun Chen in 2011 and end up in the top 20 for 2012; and which of the prospects not in Tony's top 30 will end up in the top 10 in 2012. There will be a couple at least.

Good idea, I can think of a couple of players who continually fly under the radar that I believe will have great years...again.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Feb 01, 2011 6:17 pm

Thanks AZajac that was an interesting clip.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby A.Zajac » Tue Feb 01, 2011 6:30 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Thanks AZajac that was an interesting clip.

Working with my video editor to get better quality.. came from my iPhone.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby buck84 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 11:14 am

Tony,

Your coundown list seems to includes three 2010 draftees so far. Are you focusing more on ceiling this year? Was the draft that good? Seems interesting that both Goodnight and Dischler rank higher than Cole.

Thanks for all the work.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby TonyIBI » Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:00 pm

buck84 wrote:Tony,

Your coundown list seems to includes three 2010 draftees so far. Are you focusing more on ceiling this year? Was the draft that good? Seems interesting that both Goodnight and Dischler rank higher than Cole.

Thanks for all the work.


Thanks.

Of all the guys in the ranking this year, to me it was very hard to rank Cole Cook, Goodnight, and Dischler. I like all three, and their ceiling right now as potential starters gets strong consideration in the rankings over the likes of Price, Herrmann, Burns, Langwell, and a host of other guys who have pitched well but are only relievers. Dischler is a guy I have a good feeling about. Some nice arm strength and lots of potential (and lots of potential to crater too!) as a starter. Like him a smidge better than Goodnight and Cook because of that. Cook may have been drafted higher, but the general consensus from those I have talked to feel he is the lesser of the three as far as ceiling goes. Maybe further along and more developed, but yeah, I am slanting more toward projection and ceiling this year.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:55 pm

TonyIPI wrote:
buck84 wrote:Tony,

Your coundown list seems to includes three 2010 draftees so far. Are you focusing more on ceiling this year? Was the draft that good? Seems interesting that both Goodnight and Dischler rank higher than Cole.

Thanks for all the work.


Thanks.

Of all the guys in the ranking this year, to me it was very hard to rank Cole Cook, Goodnight, and Dischler. I like all three, and their ceiling right now as potential starters gets strong consideration in the rankings over the likes of Price, Herrmann, Burns, Langwell, and a host of other guys who have pitched well but are only relievers. Dischler is a guy I have a good feeling about. Some nice arm strength and lots of potential (and lots of potential to crater too!) as a starter. Like him a smidge better than Goodnight and Cook because of that. Cook may have been drafted higher, but the general consensus from those I have talked to feel he is the lesser of the three as far as ceiling goes. Maybe further along and more developed, but yeah, I am slanting more toward projection and ceiling this year.

I like Dischler too. I had him ranked 15th. I like to rank at least one guy aggresively that I think has the potential for a big jump in the rankings. Dischler is the guy this year. As you say, Boom or Bust.

You have Bellows ranked almost exactly where I had him which should scare you. The prototype 3B. Hope the bat shapes up. With Chiz, Bellows & Urshela we should have 3B covered for a while.

Not to jump the gun but another guy who might exceed expectations is Kyle Blair, if only because nobody seems to expect much. Maybe I'm wrong about that but there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for Blair. I think that he's the type who could move through the system quickly. He's a talented kid.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby criznit2009 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:08 pm

Rocky55 wrote:
TonyIPI wrote:
buck84 wrote:Tony,

Your coundown list seems to includes three 2010 draftees so far. Are you focusing more on ceiling this year? Was the draft that good? Seems interesting that both Goodnight and Dischler rank higher than Cole.

Thanks for all the work.


Thanks.

Of all the guys in the ranking this year, to me it was very hard to rank Cole Cook, Goodnight, and Dischler. I like all three, and their ceiling right now as potential starters gets strong consideration in the rankings over the likes of Price, Herrmann, Burns, Langwell, and a host of other guys who have pitched well but are only relievers. Dischler is a guy I have a good feeling about. Some nice arm strength and lots of potential (and lots of potential to crater too!) as a starter. Like him a smidge better than Goodnight and Cook because of that. Cook may have been drafted higher, but the general consensus from those I have talked to feel he is the lesser of the three as far as ceiling goes. Maybe further along and more developed, but yeah, I am slanting more toward projection and ceiling this year.

I like Dischler too. I had him ranked 15th. I like to rank at least one guy aggresively that I think has the potential for a big jump in the rankings. Dischler is the guy this year. As you say, Boom or Bust.

You have Bellows ranked almost exactly where I had him which should scare you. The prototype 3B. Hope the bat shapes up. With Chiz, Bellows & Urshela we should have 3B covered for a while.

Not to jump the gun but another guy who might exceed expectations is Kyle Blair, if only because nobody seems to expect much. Maybe I'm wrong about that but there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for Blair. I think that he's the type who could move through the system quickly. He's a talented kid.


Blair is an interesting one - I ranked him 11th. If he is healthy and stays that way, I think his control/command issues will improve dramatically this season and with his curve potentially being one of the best out there - could have a spectacular season. Barring a total implosion he makes it to the big leagues anywhere from a MOR to quality BP guy.

I had Bellows right at 25 - looks like his bat wasn't all the way there last year IMO. If he can develop his power a bit look out as he plays an excellent 3B and probably could man 2B and OF no problem. If he has a good season at the plate could definitely turn some heads.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:51 pm

criznit2009 wrote:
Rocky55 wrote:
TonyIPI wrote:
buck84 wrote:Tony,

Your coundown list seems to includes three 2010 draftees so far. Are you focusing more on ceiling this year? Was the draft that good? Seems interesting that both Goodnight and Dischler rank higher than Cole.

Thanks for all the work.


Thanks.

Of all the guys in the ranking this year, to me it was very hard to rank Cole Cook, Goodnight, and Dischler. I like all three, and their ceiling right now as potential starters gets strong consideration in the rankings over the likes of Price, Herrmann, Burns, Langwell, and a host of other guys who have pitched well but are only relievers. Dischler is a guy I have a good feeling about. Some nice arm strength and lots of potential (and lots of potential to crater too!) as a starter. Like him a smidge better than Goodnight and Cook because of that. Cook may have been drafted higher, but the general consensus from those I have talked to feel he is the lesser of the three as far as ceiling goes. Maybe further along and more developed, but yeah, I am slanting more toward projection and ceiling this year.

I like Dischler too. I had him ranked 15th. I like to rank at least one guy aggresively that I think has the potential for a big jump in the rankings. Dischler is the guy this year. As you say, Boom or Bust.

You have Bellows ranked almost exactly where I had him which should scare you. The prototype 3B. Hope the bat shapes up. With Chiz, Bellows & Urshela we should have 3B covered for a while.

Not to jump the gun but another guy who might exceed expectations is Kyle Blair, if only because nobody seems to expect much. Maybe I'm wrong about that but there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for Blair. I think that he's the type who could move through the system quickly. He's a talented kid.


Blair is an interesting one - I ranked him 11th. If he is healthy and stays that way, I think his control/command issues will improve dramatically this season and with his curve potentially being one of the best out there - could have a spectacular season. Barring a total implosion he makes it to the big leagues anywhere from a MOR to quality BP guy.

I had Bellows right at 25 - looks like his bat wasn't all the way there last year IMO. If he can develop his power a bit look out as he plays an excellent 3B and probably could man 2B and OF no problem. If he has a good season at the plate could definitely turn some heads.

I had Blair 13th. He was 12th until the time that I posted but I had one last spasm of hope for Haley's electric arm. Not smart but there you have it.

Sickels had a blurb about Jason Knapp after he was told that he left the comments about Knapp out in his book. He mentioned that Knapp has the potential to crack his top 50 this coming season given good health. Sickels gives Knapp a B grade & calls him a potential #2 SP. As a typically optimistic Tribe fan I'm expecting Knapp to develop into our FOR guy about the time Fausto leaves.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby homerawayfromhome » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:07 pm

By the time Carmona is heading out of town several of these will probably have emerged. Throw in a cpl guys from the upcoming draft too and the Tribe could have a ton of arms knocking on the door.

Maybe a guy like Felix Sterling is ready to go or Alexander Perez recovers from TJ throwing mid 90's with a little more weight on his frame he might hit 97-98mph he's a guy I like and could really be as good or better once fully recovered.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby indianinkslinger » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:09 pm

Hi Rocky, I ranked Blair at 16 but, more importantly to me, he was the #3 RH starter in a pick'em with Gardner for #2. I have seen him pitch several times and am very impressed with his command and movement. He may be closer to a finished product than even Pomeranz but likely does not have the upside. I have also seen Cole Cook pitch once and he looks like he has some work to do but is an interesting "project". I have not seen Goodnight or Dischler in live action so comparison is not appropriate for me but i hope to correct that in Goodyear. From the tape, I would judge that Goodnight has the highest upside but not by much.

I think Blair is meant to start. IMO, he is not likely to become what Tony categorized as only a "reliever". If he is healthy, I think he gets 150-160 IP. :pleasantry:
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby Rocky55 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:28 pm

indianinkslinger wrote:Hi Rocky, I ranked Blair at 16 but, more importantly to me, he was the #3 RH starter in a pick'em with Gardner for #2. I have seen him pitch several times and am very impressed with his command and movement. He may be closer to a finished product than even Pomeranz but likely does not have the upside. I have also seen Cole Cook pitch once and he looks like he has some work to do but is an interesting "project". I have not seen Goodnight or Dischler in live action so comparison is not appropriate for me but i hope to correct that in Goodyear. From the tape, I would judge that Goodnight has the highest upside but not by much.

I think Blair is meant to start. IMO, he is not likely to become what Tony categorized as only a "reliever". If he is healthy, I think he gets 150-160 IP. :pleasantry:

I've seen Goodnight a couple of times. He's got the pro body & pro stuff but doesn't seem to have the focus. He kind of dithers around. You watch him overmatch guys & expect that he should do it all of the time. The potential is there.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby TonyIBI » Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:12 pm

Rocky55 wrote:You have Bellows ranked almost exactly where I had him which should scare you. The prototype 3B. Hope the bat shapes up. With Chiz, Bellows & Urshela we should have 3B covered for a while.

Not to jump the gun but another guy who might exceed expectations is Kyle Blair, if only because nobody seems to expect much. Maybe I'm wrong about that but there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for Blair. I think that he's the type who could move through the system quickly. He's a talented kid.


I like Bellows a lot as he has tons of ML ability with the defense and some good power. Really reminds me a lot as a potential Casey Blake type. The bat scares me though and I question whether he will be able to consistently hit and get on base enough in the higher levels, hence the lower ranking.

I like Blair a lot, as you will soon see. :biggrin:
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby GeronimoSon » Tue Feb 08, 2011 11:42 pm

I had Bells in the top thirty, mainly on his defense and athleticism.. The hitting his first two seasons showed some growth and maturity.. and he actually improved as his competition improved. Bells is a 3B through and through.. he has the frame, speed and, his best weapon, a laser guided howitzer for an arm.. that plays anywhere. All day.. everyday..

Having Bells in the system along with Urshela &, to a less degree, Cord Phelps (as a utility slot) makes this a depth position going forward over the next five to seven years..
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby TheWord » Wed Feb 09, 2011 12:50 am

Love Bellows.

If that kid would ever hit and get to the big leagues, he has the potential to be a Gold Glover.
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby GeronimoSon » Wed Feb 09, 2011 10:09 am

Interesting" quirks from the Gallery Consolidation spread sheet:

Outliers = Players with the highest "spread" in rankings.. e.g. chisenhall: highest ranking: 1, lowest ranking: 3 Spread: 2 (so not very much of a spread.. the results across the board are quite consistent)

Here is who isn't quite so consistent from the top ten:

Jason Knapp spread 18
Levon Washington spread 23
Nick Hagadone spread 24

So, it appears that these three guys, Knapp, Washington and Hagadone, are overall, well thought of, but also have a few posters who just don't like them or think way too highly of what they see..
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Re: 2011 Prospect rankings

Postby daingean » Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:01 pm

GeronimoSon wrote:Interesting" quirks from the Gallery Consolidation spread sheet:

Outliers = Players with the highest "spread" in rankings.. e.g. chisenhall: highest ranking: 1, lowest ranking: 3 Spread: 2 (so not very much of a spread.. the results across the board are quite consistent)

Here is who isn't quite so consistent from the top ten:

Jason Knapp spread 18
Levon Washington spread 23
Nick Hagadone spread 24

So, it appears that these three guys, Knapp, Washington and Hagadone, are overall, well thought of, but also have a few posters who just don't like them or think way too highly of what they see..


All 3 of these guys have ? marks. Each of us use different weights when taking these ? into our evaluation process. Who is right and who is wrong? No one really because "beauty is in the eye of the beholder".

I rated Knapp lower because shoulder surgeries scare me. The Indians said it was a simple operation yet he missed almost a whole year with that. I want to see him pitch 150 or so innings in a year before I rate him higher. I rated Hagadone higher because of the velocity and TJ surgery no longer scares me + I expect his control to improve. I had Washington lower because I want to see his arm strength improve before I rate him as a CF.

Others are intrigued by Knapps' potential and rate him higher but are scared off by Hagadone's control issues.
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