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2011 Amateur Draft

Talk shop about the various prospects and teams that make up the Cleveland Indians organization.

Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Tondo » Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:16 pm

Ok guys, here's THE "plan" :s_yes

My Indians "wet dream" mock...staying inside with BA's Top 200 with every pick to make it as realistic as possible:

8: I'm sold on Archie...and we have the "time" for a HS arm...if Bauer is gone, take him or Barnes at 8 or Jungmann as good consolation prize

Pick: HS RHP A.Bradley

67: After Archie, I'm looking for a College bat here, the value is at SS imho...Brad Miller or Jece Peterson, 1 of them should be available, both really good contact hitters with good eye and speed

Pick: SS B.Miller

97: You know by now how much I like Noe Ramirez, but he's at 93 in BA's list, so he's gone. There are some interesting HS arms and bats to go in this range but signability is always a ? If we go College arm in 1st I expect a HS arm here, for my mock though I'm looking to add an advanced College arm....Ramirez, Andriese and B.Smith just didn't make the "cut" but are all possibilities if there but I'm going with a personal fav here, who I almost like as much as Ramirez

Pick: RHP L.Verrett

128: Ok, I now have HS arm, Collge contact hitting/speed MIF, College arm...looking to add some power with this pick or next. 3B Asche and OF Robinson just missed the cut and are def. possibilities here...but the value seem to be pitching here...my pick here is a signability risk with College committment and thus could go earlier if someone is willing to pay, with that said we could go 3B Buechele, OF P.Tucker too for College power or speed again with a guy I really like too: OF B.Myles...but the high upside risk-pick here is:

Pick: HS C/1B Kevin Cron

158: Could go so many ways here...really like RHP Pill, RHP Gaviglio, HS 2way J.Cave, OF N.Martini, C Hicks, C Maynard, OF Ruettiger, 1B/3B Stubbs, 3B Buechele, 1B/OF Tucker...but the pick is:

Pick: RHP M.Pope

188: Gotta go with anotehr high upside/high risk/signability pick here, who could go much earlier:

Pick: HS LHP A.Garrett

In rounds 7 to 10 I'd go with at least 3 "cheap" College bats...possibilities: 3B/1B M.Skole, C Ogle, 3B/OF Woodward, 3B Torrez, 1B Seitzer, 1B T.Ard, C Kometani, 2B Paolini, 1B Hoilman, 3B Tanis, OF Dugas, INF Hinson

My Mock overview:

6 HS RHP A.Bradley
67 SS B.Miller
97 RHP L.Verrett
128 HS C/1B Kevin Cron
158 RHP M.Pope
188 HS LHP A.Garrett

What do you think?
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Thu Jun 02, 2011 7:59 pm

FYI.. Jim Callis tweeted at me that he believes the Indians will ultimately draft a college arm. Take it for what it's worth. If that's the case, I want it to be Bauer/Barnes.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:32 pm

draftsite.com latest moak has the Tribe going Barnes, 8 and Dominic Jose-OF in rd 2. Thought it was interesting. Sounds like the tribe will go pitcher at 8 probably Bauer, Barnes, ABradley, JBradley in that order is my guess.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby TribeTalk01 » Fri Jun 03, 2011 3:49 pm

Keith Law has the Indians taking Joe Ross at #8 (brother of the A's Tyson). Alson linking us to Sonny Gray, Archie Bradley, Javier Baez, and Jed Bradley as other possibilities
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Fri Jun 03, 2011 3:52 pm

TribeTalk01 wrote:Keith Law has the Indians taking Joe Ross at #8 (brother of the A's Tyson). Alson linking us to Sonny Gray, Archie Bradley, Javier Baez, and Jed Bradley as other possibilities


Just seen that and immediately thought in my mind, "Ah, crap." Joe Ross is a nice selection and all... but at 8? Really?
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby ChadS17 » Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:19 pm

A.Zajac wrote:FYI.. Jim Callis tweeted at me that he believes the Indians will ultimately draft a college arm. Take it for what it's worth. If that's the case, I want it to be Bauer/Barnes.


I know nothing about the draft, so would someone care to explain to me why they would take a pitcher instead of a bat?
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:22 pm

Matt Barnes getting lit up in regional play.. Anthony Meo has the UConn Huskies crying for mama....
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:24 pm

Second round potential, Preston Tucker 1B/OF from the Gators.. 3-3 with two homers and five RBI's in a Gator gouging of the Manhattan College Jaspers.. wtf is a Jasper?..
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:28 pm

ChadS17 wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:FYI.. Jim Callis tweeted at me that he believes the Indians will ultimately draft a college arm. Take it for what it's worth. If that's the case, I want it to be Bauer/Barnes.


I know nothing about the draft, so would someone care to explain to me why they would take a pitcher instead of a bat?
Chad.. you focus on need in the MLB draft.. you focus on Best Player Available.. The amount of time it takes most selections to make it through the minor league system makes need today a glut tomorrow.. IF you always draft the best available.. you eventually have as much talent as the parent club can handle.. maybe..

When it comes to the ML roster.. you can never have enough of, in this order:

1. Starting Pitching
2. Pitching in General
3. Good Catching..
4.Strong defense up the middle including catcher, SS, 2B and CF..

After that.. if you need something other than 1 through 4, then you should quit watching baseball...
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby petes999 » Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:42 pm

ChadS17 wrote:
A.Zajac wrote:FYI.. Jim Callis tweeted at me that he believes the Indians will ultimately draft a college arm. Take it for what it's worth. If that's the case, I want it to be Bauer/Barnes.


I know nothing about the draft, so would someone care to explain to me why they would take a pitcher instead of a bat?


It goes back to some talk around the trade deadlines the last few years that young front line starters are not made available on the trade market for rent-a-players. We did get Carrasco, Klubler and Knapp. Yet, Bucholz and others who were more ready were off limits. Thus, the thinking is maybe .... if we have a plethora of quality starters, we can pry that hitter when the time comes as we got preferrable assets to trade away.

Also, you may think about it in terms of who have we done well on drafting more -- college pitching or high school hitters? We may have stronger pitching instructors ... thus going pitching may be our best use of internal assets. Or, if our scouts are better judge of pitching than hitting, why gamble -- assuming you can trade a good AAA pitcher for a good AAA hitter when the time comes?

If you look at our position players too, we are weak in the minors. However, the areas we need to address are OF and SS (for when Siezemore, Hafner, Cabrera and Choo leave). However, even if we draft an infielder now, like Lindor, that SS won't be ready to replace Cabrera when he leaves. Springer may be an option, but even then someone who is drafted now, he has 2012 and 2013 to get ready to replace Choo ... not a whole lot of time. Thus, the thinking is if this year's group of college pitchers are more ready like a White or Pom type, they will be valuable trade chips in 2 years (trade pitching for hitting if we are in contention) than try to develop Springer by then. Also it is harder to try to trade OF/SS that you draft now that is in high-A/AA for a more ready OF in AAA to replace Choo.... If a team has excess OF, they won't want a OF back as the hackbone of the trade. They want to look for their weakness to bolster. Indians may see getting a strength to trade for a weakness (P for OF) is easier to pair up with another team than trading an OF to a team that has excess OFers (but may need pitching).

So, if pitching is a strength from a scouting and coaching perspective than a high school hitter, why go against your strength? I know if this is the case, you should look at getting better choaches and scouts. But, in the end, it goes to draft BPA ... and if that is pitching, which this draft has on top, you got to go for it than to try to draft on your perceived needs in 2-3 years.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Fri Jun 03, 2011 7:24 pm

A.Zajac wrote:
TribeTalk01 wrote:Keith Law has the Indians taking Joe Ross at #8 (brother of the A's Tyson). Alson linking us to Sonny Gray, Archie Bradley, Javier Baez, and Jed Bradley as other possibilities


Just seen that and immediately thought in my mind, "Ah, crap." Joe Ross is a nice selection and all... but at 8? Really?



from law
Slight? Really good prospect, though, athletic, great delivery, has present stuff, good feel, good makeup ... I'm a fan, and many evaluators I respect absolutely love the kid.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Fri Jun 03, 2011 8:21 pm

Here's a mock I thought was worth checking out.
http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2011/06/01/t ... -volume-v/
This includes clickable names ht, wt projectIon.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:14 pm

Jim Callis in his latest mock draft has us taking Jed Bradley. Meh. He also has Sonny Gray going a pick before us. It seems like him and Keith Law are worlds apart in their opinions right now.

EDIT: And at this point, I feel that Keith Law's mock is closer to what we'll see on Monday than Callis.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Lloyd Christmas » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:52 pm

A.Zajac wrote:Jim Callis in his latest mock draft has us taking Jed Bradley. Meh. He also has Sonny Gray going a pick before us. It seems like him and Keith Law are worlds apart in their opinions right now.

EDIT: And at this point, I feel that Keith Law's mock is closer to what we'll see on Monday than Callis.


Yeah Rendon at 2 and Starling at 6 are the only top 8 picks they agree on. Callis seems convinced they will take a college arm.

It is kind of funny that both have spent the last week constantly on the phones talking with people from each organization and they get this many differing opinions.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Lloyd Christmas » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:57 pm

Law just tweeted "Hearing Sonny Gray to Cleveland at #8 quite a bit this morning."
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sat Jun 04, 2011 1:10 pm

Lloyd Christmas wrote:Law just tweeted "Hearing Sonny Gray to Cleveland at #8 quite a bit this morning."


And with that I say, "NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!"
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GoTribe028 » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:19 pm

A.Zajac wrote:
Lloyd Christmas wrote:Law just tweeted "Hearing Sonny Gray to Cleveland at #8 quite a bit this morning."


And with that I say, "NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!"


I just can't see it. Not at number 8. I'm not a draft expert but I don't understand what about Gray makes him a top 10 pick. Is it because he's considered safe, MLB ready? Seems like a low ceiling, high floor pick to me. Too much upside in this draft to pass up based on everything I've gathered.

I'm not especially enamored with Fransisco Lindor but I'd perfer him at this pick.

There seems to be a lot of differing opinions on who's looking at who, I tweeted Tony today that I hope this is a bit of deception on the Indians part, they're always so quiet about this stuff.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:20 pm

I like Gray but not with the 8th pk. If I stacked the tribes board it would be...
Trevor Bauer
Matt Barnes
Archie Bradley
Francisco Lindor
Jed Bradley
Javier Baez
Taylor Jungmann
Joe Ross- whose been connected with the Tribe.
Alex Meyer
Josh Bell
Sonny Gray
That's about 10 guys before I'd pk Gray, assuming also that Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, Bundy, Starling are all gone. Id almost rather see them go George Springer, Levi Michael, and Jose Fernandez.
This just be a smoke screen, always lots of rumors flying around hrs before the draft. We would be kicking ourselves if he's Billy Wagner or Roy Oswalt. Gray is similar in stature to Austin Adams.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby JP_Frost » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:33 pm

I think Gray gets a bit underrated by some. Sure he's small and his command needs some work, but he's got a devastating fastball and curve, plus he has a good feel for his changeup. His upside is a TOR starter. Same goes for Jed Bradley.

I'd go with Archie Bradley or Matt Barnes fwiw, but both Gray and Bradley would be solid picks.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GoTribe028 » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:36 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:I like Gray but not with the 8th pk. If I stacked the tribes board it would be...
Trevor Bauer
Matt Barnes
Archie Bradley
Francisco Lindor
Jed Bradley
Javier Baez
Taylor Jungmann
Joe Ross- whose been connected with the Tribe.
Alex Meyer
Josh Bell
Sonny Gray
That's about 10 guys before I'd pk Gray, assuming also that Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, Bundy, Starling are all gone. Id almost rather see them go George Springer, Levi Michael, and Jose Fernandez.
This just be a smoke screen, always lots of rumors flying around hrs before the draft. We would be kicking ourselves if he's Billy Wagner or Roy Oswalt. Gray is similar in stature to Austin Adams.


This x1000. Thank you. I was putting together a list of pitchers alone that could still be on board when the Indians pick with potentially Springer/Starling available as well.

I was just thinking of Austin Adams, despite his age, he's fairly new(ish) to pitching is very similar to Gray physically. Good fastballs, good curves. Adams as a fifth rounder was a fine selection you'd be hard pressed to find fault with given his results so far as pitcher. Gray at #8 overall just seems foolish to me.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:44 pm

JP_Frost wrote:I think Gray gets a bit underrated by some. Sure he's small and his command needs some work, but he's got a devastating fastball and curve, plus he has a good feel for his changeup. His upside is a TOR starter. Same goes for Jed Bradley.

I'd go with Archie Bradley or Matt Barnes fwiw, but both Gray and Bradley would be solid picks.


Disagree with you somewhat here, JP. Yes, he COULD be maybe a #2, but to me, he projects more as a reliever/closer. I just don't think his body can hold up to be a starter. And I completely disagree with you about Jed Bradey. Bradley to me is a MOR starter 2/3. Definitely don't feel that he can be an ace.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:57 pm

was reading some goldstein comments, and I think we are not on barnes at all or springer, we had no contingents at some of the bigger games.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:21 pm

A.Zajac wrote:
JP_Frost wrote:I think Gray gets a bit underrated by some. Sure he's small and his command needs some work, but he's got a devastating fastball and curve, plus he has a good feel for his changeup. His upside is a TOR starter. Same goes for Jed Bradley.

I'd go with Archie Bradley or Matt Barnes fwiw, but both Gray and Bradley would be solid picks.


Disagree with you somewhat here, JP. Yes, he COULD be maybe a #2, but to me, he projects more as a reliever/closer. I just don't think his body can hold up to be a starter. And I completely disagree with you about Jed Bradey. Bradley to me is a MOR starter 2/3. Definitely don't feel that he can be an ace.

Watching Jed pitch right now. He cruised through 6, started to lose it in the 7th, batting practice in the eighth. He seemsed to lose the feel for his breakng ball & his fastball command was non-existent. It's hot here in the ATL area but he was only @ 70 pitches when all of this started. Even the outs were crushed. He was leaving his FB over the plate.
He didn't look as good today as he did earlier in the year(he tired around the 7th in that game too). Have to agree with Andrew here. Jed looks like a #3 to me. Good pitcher, dominant at times, but not consistently.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:03 pm

If the tribes scouts are doing their homework now, we and they are in serious trouble, they track many of these guys very early in their careers. Now they should be stacking the board and mtg. Getting a conscensus from the scouting dept.

Can't really see Springer as the tribes pk but that's part of the point. Barnes on the other hand is not off the board unless their is a medical concern we hadn't heard about. Don't think they even have access at this point.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:17 pm

Agreed that Jed Bradley is a 3 maybe a 2 but can't see it yet. Barnes is probably a 2 maybe a 3 if he struggles with his command. Archie Bradley is probably a 2 maybe a 3 potentially an ACE. Gray is possibly a 3 maybe a 4-5 or at worst a dominate bully. Alex Meyer probably a 3 maybe just maybe a 2. Jose Fernandez is potentially 2. Joe Ross potentially 2. Trevor Bauer is probably a 2, potentially a one at worst a 3. Taylor Jungmann maybe a 2 probably a good 3. Danny Hultzen 2 maybe 3. Gerrit Cole is potentially an ACE maybe a 2. Dylan Bundy potentially an ACE maybe a 2 at worse a 3.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:18 pm

Rawnsley on PG has his latest mock up. Has the Tribe picking Jungmann at #8.Tell you what guys, after the inconsistencies with Bradley, Barnes, & Gray, Jungmann's looking pretty good. If we have to go college pitching, & those four are the only guys left, I'll take Jungmann. Hell, he's only given up 13ER in 122.2IP. When I saw him pitch in the CWS 2 years ago I predicted he'd go top 3 in this years' draft. He won't but it's not his fault. He's just been the most successful college pitcher over the last 2 years.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby JP_Frost » Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:31 pm

I'm not entirely sold on Jungmann. That delievery scares me.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sat Jun 04, 2011 11:06 pm

JP_Frost wrote:I'm not entirely sold on Jungmann. That delievery scares me.


Agree with you here, JP. I'm not entirely sold on Jungmann earlier. High character kid, but the delivery scares the hell out of me too. Has TJ all over it. Plus, IMO, Jungmann projects as a 3 in our rotation. We'll see.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby elrod enchilada » Sun Jun 05, 2011 10:24 am

This piece on ESPN is persuasive. Let some other chump blow the top picks on pitchers. Draft HS position players and sign them. Make it Starling, Lindor or Bell.

Top-of-the-draft philosophy: Take the hitter!
June, 5, 2011
Jun 5
8:01
AM ET

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By Jim Bowden
My philosophy on building a baseball team is the same as most. I would begin with five No. 1 starting pitchers, all capable of 20 wins and an ERA under 2.00 with WHIPs under 1.00, followed by three impact hitters in the middle of the order who would have an OPS over 1.100 with 140-RBI potential who would also win Gold Glove awards at catcher, shortstop and center field, an impact closer who converts every save opportunity and a leadoff hitter with a .400 OBP who could steal 50 bases and score 120 runs. I would take the proven ace pitcher over the best hitter every time. If we could all implement this philosophy, world championships would follow.

This blueprint is pretty simple. There are 30 teams that would like to carry out this plan. Logic says that when it comes to the first five selections in the draft, clubs should choose starting pitchers. History, however, says that is high risk and usually not successful.

In fact, since 1990 the only top pitchers taken in the top 5 of the draft who lived up to the scouting reports were Mark Mulder, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, David Price and Stephen Strasburg (who is now injured). That's exactly five pitchers out of a possible 105 draft picks.

Here is a list of pitchers who were taken with one of the top five selections in the draft since 1990: Kurt Miller, Brien Taylor, James Henderson, Billy Wallace, Jeff Granger, Wayne Gomes, Dustin Hermanson, Ariel Prieto, Matt Anderson, Jeff Austin, Adam Johnson, Mike Stodolka, Justin Wayne, Dewon Brazelton, Chris Gruler, Kyle Sleeth, Greg Reynolds and Daniel Moskos.

In most cases the clubs weren't wrong to draft them. The stuff was there, so was their proven track records -- and in many cases they had good makeup. However, some of the pitchers were either later injured, their physical abilities regressed or their off-field behavior and lifestyle changed for the worse. Of course, some of the failures also had to do with poor scouting of deliveries, lack of deception, intelligence and overall makeup.

Position players have a much better track record, especially those whose best tool was the "hit" tool. For example, look no further than Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, Evan Longoria, Buster Posey and future stars like Eric Hosmer, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the first overall pick in this year's draft. Gerrit Cole, a right-handed pitcher from UCLA, Danny Hultzen, a left-handed pitcher from the University of Virginia, and Dylan Bundy, a right-hander from Owasso High School in Oklahoma, are considered by some scouting directors to be the top three players in this year's draft. Each has the potential to be 12-15 game winners in the major leagues. However, most scouts rate their potential below a Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg or David Price.

Therefore, based on history, the Bucs should be debating between the sure-thing college bat of Anthony Rendon, a third baseman from Rice who can really hit and whose power wasn't seen this year only because of an injured shoulder, or the high-risk, high-reward athlete in this year's draft: Bubba Starling, the high school center fielder from Kansas who has comitted to Nebraska to play football.

In my opinion, the Pirates should have learned from draft history and taken shortstop Manny Machado last year over Jameson Taillon with the second overall pick. This year, they should draft Rendon over Cole, Hultzen or Bundy. Pittsburgh should then use the rest of its draft picks to stockpile pitching. That doesn't mean that Rendon or Machado have more talent or potential compared to Cole, Bundy or Hultzen; it just means they're not pitchers.

Impact position players who can hit like Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. and Chipper Jones sure do make an organization look smart for taking them in the top 5 of the first round for a long, long time. When you draft some of the best potential pitchers like Kris Benson, Ben McDonald or Mark Prior, an organization can look dumb in a hurry, even though they were scouted and ranked high on almost all 30 draft boards.

Bottom line: If you are a Pirates fan, hope for Rendon or embrace the high risk and high reward of Starling rather than drafting another Bobby Bradley, Daniel Moskos or Bryan Bullington.

Here is a breakdown of some draft history that supports the "If it's close, take the hitter" philosophy:


1990: Braves took Chipper Jones over pitcher Todd Van Poppel.
1991: Yankees chose LHP Brien Taylor over Manny Ramirez.
1992: Pitchers Paul Shuey and Billy Wallace were selected over Derek Jeter.
1993: Mariners took Alex Rodriguez over Darren Dreifort.
1994: Pitchers Paul Wilson, Dustin Hermanson and Doug Million were all drafted before Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Varitek and Troy Glaus.
1995: Todd Helton was passed over for pitchers Jonathan Johnson and Ariel Prieto.
1996: Seth Greisinger and Matt White went before Eric Chavez and Jimmy Rollins.
1997: Matt Anderson went ahead of J.D. Drew; Jason Grilli ahead of Vernon Wells; Geoff Goetz ahead of Michael Cuddyer; Dan Reichert ahead of Lance Berkman.
1998: Jeff Austin went ahead of J.D. Drew and Ryan Mills ahead of Adam Dunn.
1999: Josh Hamilton and Josh Beckett went 1-2; but pitchers Josh Girdley, Kyle Snyder and Bobby Bradley all went before Albert Pujols, Carl Crawford and Alex Rios.
2000: Marlins took Adrian Gonzalez over pitcher Adam Johnson but Mike Stodolka, Justin Wayne, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland, Mark Phillips, Joe Torres all went ahead of Chase Utley, Grady Sizemore and Yadier Molina.
2001: Twins chose Joe Mauer over Mark Prior, Dewon Brazelton and Gavin Floyd. Those three pitchers were all taken ahead of Mark Teixeira, David Wright, Ryan Howard and Kevin Youkilis.
2002: Pitchers Bryan Bullington, Chris Gruler, Adam Loewen, Clint Everts were selected before Prince Fielder, James Loney, Denard Span, Brian McCann and Curtis Granderson.
2003: Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks went 1-2 in the draft.
2004: Pitchers Matthew Campbell and Eric Hurley were drafted right ahead of Andre Ethier.
2005: Wade Townsend, Mike Pelfrey both got drafted ahead of Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutchen.
2006: Luke Hochevar and Greg Reynolds were drafted ahead of Evan Longoria.
2007: Daniel Moskos was drafted ahead of Matt Wieters and Jason Heyward.
2008: Brian Matusz got drafted just ahead of Buster Posey.
2009: 15 pitchers were drafted ahead of Mike Trout. Two years later, Trout is the second-best prospect in baseball to Bryce Harper.
2010: Jameson Taillon got drafted just ahead of Manny Machado.
2011: More pitchers will be drafted in the first round and never throw a single pitch in the major leagues.


Three reasons why pitchers have more risk at the top of the first round:

1. Injuries: If a pitcher's throwing shoulder blows out, you could have nothing to show for your top pick. A position player will recover.

2. Physical changes: A player's physical size, strength and abilities can change significantly from ages 18-21. These changes usually don't adversely affect high school hitters like it does pitchers. Highly-rated high school bats like Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones usually will add home run power, but have little risk in going backwards. High school pitchers' shoulders and muscles can change dramatically, resulting in changes in delivery, deception and release points that can result in losses of both velocity and command. Of course, it can also have the opposite effect like the case of Stephen Strasburg, who wasn't even drafted out of high school. Strasburg's physical changes led him to becoming one of the best pitching prospects in baseball just three years later.

3. Signability: Teams have taken lesser talent and drafted a pitcher over a position player only because of signability. Drafting players based on signability over talent is a philosophy that never works.

You win championships with top-of-the-rotations starters. It's not very often that baseball has found them at top of the amateur draft.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby jellis » Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:52 am

here is an issue with that article when it mentions failed pitchers it is often comparing them to guys who where taken much later and where not thought to be near the same. You could write the same article in reverse if you were allowed to take the field and show it as opposed to one hitter. Bowden has pretty much mismanaged every team he has run in the last decade, so I defiantly think anything he said should be taken with a grain of salt
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby ClevBuck » Sun Jun 05, 2011 12:09 pm

In order, who are the most likley to be picked 8th tomorrow?
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sun Jun 05, 2011 12:20 pm

ClevBuck wrote:In order, who are the most likley to be picked 8th tomorrow?


Tough to say and honestly depends on who is available. There's a lot of variables. THEIR big board is somewhat difficult to even try and put together because many national "experts" have some widely different reports what they believe the Indians will do.

We've been linked to so many names... Sonny Gray, Joe Ross, Jed Bradley, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Archie Bradley, Matt Barnes, Javier Baez, Taylor Jungmann....

With that said, I would imagine their board goes something like this:
1. Bauer
2. A. Bradley
3. Gray
4. J. Bradley
5. Lindor
6. Jungmann
7. Barnes
8. Ross
9. Baez

If I had say in who they would draft, my board would go:
1. Bauer
2. A. Bradley
3. Lindor
4. Ross
5. Barnes
6. Gray
7. J. Bradley
8. Jungmann
9. Baez
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby daingean » Sun Jun 05, 2011 12:31 pm

elrod enchilada wrote:2. Physical changes: A player's physical size, strength and abilities can change significantly from ages 18-21. These changes usually don't adversely affect high school hitters like it does pitchers. Highly-rated high school bats like Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones usually will add home run power, but have little risk in going backwards. High school pitchers' shoulders and muscles can change dramatically, resulting in changes in delivery, deception and release points that can result in losses of both velocity and command. Of course, it can also have the opposite effect like the case of Stephen Strasburg, who wasn't even drafted out of high school. Strasburg's physical changes led him to becoming one of the best pitching prospects in baseball just three years later.


I still am in the BPA camp. But yes, physical changes certainly affect a player. SS grow into 3B, 3B grow into 1B, CFers grow into RFers. SP adding strength/bulk or height only helps them though (as long as the strength/bulk is good).

Now when it comes to how you rate BPA. The Tribe values pitchers and really plays it conservative by going HS pitchers. I expect them to go that route. My only preferences are in a pitcher:

1. clean smooth delivery
2. stuff to stay in the rotation
3. size to stay in the rotation

At 8 (in this draft) we should get a FOR pitcher. If we take a hitter or a prep arm then I'm all for it.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Sun Jun 05, 2011 3:12 pm

This doesn't pertain to the the Indians all that much, but one thing that stands out to me as crazy is that Levi Michael looks like he'll be a 1st round pick. I'm a fan of the UNC program, but come on. He's got a nice swing from the left side (not as a righty, though), but this guy is way overrated. Any team that takes him in the 1st round is making a mistake.

Speaking of college infielders...

One of the guys I'd love to see the Indians take in the 2nd round is St. John's SS Joe Panik. I think Panik has some infield skills (needs to improve, but likely will) and the guy can hit. Think he's a guy that will turn doubles power into 20 HR power at baseball physical maturity (26-29 years old). More athletic than Cord Phelps.

Another infielder I really like is Texas HS shortstop Trevor Story, but I would not expect him to be there for the Indians in the 2nd round. His bat, athleticism and projection are very intriguing.
Last edited by OhioBaseball on Sun Jun 05, 2011 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Jun 05, 2011 3:52 pm

I'm with you on Trevor Story. Like this kid but think he gets snagged up in the sandwich rd.

I'm gonna have some brass say the Tribe goes Archie Bradley tomorrow... Or Francisco Lindor.
Something stood out in Grants comments the other day... Grant said the club could go high schooler with the depth this system has, they can afford a bit of the risk and also noted he could go above slot. It's hard to find ACE potential pitching and Bradley has it, to go along with a FB that sits 95 and has touched 101. Not only was his team able to beat Dylan Bundys team in the state chsmpionship but Bradley outpitched him head to head and threw harder than the much ballyhooed Bundy.

Grant also noted the tribe needed talent of different capabilities, levels, etc to form an org. The team has to put the right guys together with different abilities. We are likely to see dome gambles followed by safer pks, much like last yr... The tribe doesn't need to bring in 20-25 guys from this draft there is depth present already and this provides the team/ system the ability to go after upper talented guys and snag a few safer pks to boot. It wouldn't harm the system if only 15-20 guys sign from this draft unless they are all "safe" pks.

IMO Archie Bradley offers great upside but also great ability now. IMO Archie Bradley is as good or better right now than many of the top college arms.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Jun 05, 2011 4:09 pm

Anybody else want to see Sonny Gray off the draft board by the Royals 5, Nationals 6, or Dbax 7 ?
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sun Jun 05, 2011 4:34 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:Anybody else want to see Sonny Gray off the draft board by the Royals 5, Nationals 6, or Dbax 7 ?


Yes, please.

EDIT: Jed Bradley too.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Jun 05, 2011 4:52 pm

I recently heard Joe Ross connected with the tribes pk. Ive also heard he was quietly climbing draft boards... The little bro of Tyson Ross throws 95 has a good mix of pitches including a sinker (?) sounds like the kind of pitcher the tribe loves. Joe Ross is 6'2 180 with some good upside could be a potential 2, he would be a bit of a reach at 8 but has good upside.

Regardless of what happens the next 72 hrs... IMO Brad Grant and staff have earned the benefit of doubt. :good:
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sun Jun 05, 2011 5:01 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:I recently heard Joe Ross connected with the tribes pk. Ive also heard he was quietly climbing draft boards... The little bro of Tyson Ross throws 95 has a good mix of pitches including a sinker (?) sounds like the kind of pitcher the tribe loves. Joe Ross is 6'2 180 with some good upside could be a potential 2, he would be a bit of a reach at 8 but has good upside.

Regardless of what happens the next 72 hrs... IMO Brad Grant and staff have earned the benefit of doubt. :good:


I posted my "big board" or wish list a few posts ago and Ross came in at four behind Bauer, A. Bradley, and Lindor. Much rather us take Ross than J. Bradley/Gray.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Sun Jun 05, 2011 5:16 pm

OhioBaseball wrote:This doesn't pertain to the the Indians all that much, but one thing that stands out to me as crazy is that Levi Michael looks like he'll be a 1st round pick. I'm a fan of the UNC program, but come on. He's got a nice swing from the left side (not as a righty, though), but this guy is way overrated. Any team that takes him in the 1st round is making a mistake.

Speaking of college infielders...

One of the guys I'd love to see the Indians take in the 2nd round is St. John's SS Joe Panik. I think Panik has some infield skills (needs to improve, but likely will) and the guy can hit. Think he's a guy that will turn doubles power into 20 HR power at baseball physical maturity (26-29 years old). More athletic than Cord Phelps.

Another infielder I really like is Texas HS shortstop Trevor Story, but I would not expect him to be there for the Indians in the 2nd round. His bat, athleticism and projection are very intriguing.

Amen re Michael OB. Can't see a 1st Round guy there but maybe they're hoping for/projecting Pedroia. Don't see it. Kolten Wong I like. Picking Michael over Wong would be nuts, IMO.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby GeronimoSon » Sun Jun 05, 2011 5:37 pm

The Big Board sets the tone for the entire draft.. Someone mentioned wanting or expecting to see this guy or that guy gone by the time the Indians pick.. Sonny Gray would be a fine addition to the Indians system if he were available but not until the Indians were prepared to take the 67th pick in the 2011 Rule IV Draft. Here is a go at my personal "Big Board":

1. Gerrit Cole P
2. Trevor Bauer P
3. Danny Hultzen P
4. Anthony Rendon 2B/3B
5. Bubba Starling OF
6. Archie Bradley P
7. Dylan Bundy P
8. Alex Meyer P
9. Taylor Guerrieri P
10. Francisco Lindor SS
11. Matt Barnes P
12. Jed Bradley P
13. Jose Fernandez P
14. George Springer OF
15. Taylor Jungmann P
16. Josh Bell OF
17. Dillon Howard P
18. Javier Baez SS
19. Sonny Gray P
20. Miki Mahtook OF
21. Travis Harrison 3B/OF
22. Cory Spangenberg OF
23. Joe Ross P
24. Kolten Wong 2B
25. Matt Purke P
26. Brandon Nimmo OF
27. C.J. Cron 1B
28. Andrew Susac C
29. Anthony Meo P
30. Robert Stephenson P

If any of the 29 names on this list that are not already drafted by the Indians (It is w/ certainty that you can say the Indians WILL select someone on this list of 30) with the overall 8th selection and they are available for the 67th pick, then, any one of the remaining names would make Brad Grant look like a genius.. There is little likelihood any names on the "G'Son Big Board" will be there when the Indians make the 67th pick imho..(I know.. big stretch)..but Kent States Andrew Chafin, or Tyler Beede or Josh Osrich might be there.. Osrich would be a SWEET pick up for the Wahoo's at # 67...
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sun Jun 05, 2011 9:34 pm

For what it's worth, I'm hearing Archie Bradley more and more tonight for the Tribe. Not sure how much it'll hold true for tomorrow, but I'm hearing if Bradley is there, he'll be the pick. We'll see what national experts have to say tonight/early tomorrow (Law, Gallis, Goldstein..)
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Jun 05, 2011 10:23 pm

Future Shock
Mock Draft: The Zero Issue
by Kevin Goldstein



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Minor League Update
Kevin Goldstein with the latest news on the hottest Minor League prospects.
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Last Update: June 3 What you see below is my current mock draft. Instead of big write-ups, which I’m saving for my final mock draft on Monday, these are the notes from calls and texts in my latest mock worksheet with source names removed. I hope it's a fun look at how the sausage is made.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA. This is still a lean at best. Not only does nobody know, but the Pirates almost seem to be enjoying the reaction to their indecisiveness.

•Everything indicates Cole, but I think it's Dany Hultzen.
•Hultzen not Boras (CAA), might be calling for a pre-draft feel (early ask was eight figures) – forget that.
•Rendon leading
•Hearing Cole
•Rendon third of three
•Hultzen favored by many, backlash fear
2. Seattle Mariners: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. Rendon is still Seattle's focus, but the Francisco Lindor rumors grow by the hour. He still looks like Plan B, but a shock here is possible.

•Cole might be backup
•Bubba Starling in mix, Jack Z. likes more than scout dept.
•Huge heat at recent Lindor games
•Lindor in SEA on Thursday, impressive workout, easy plan B, maybe more
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia. Nothing but college arms seemingly in the mix, and Hultzen has been the focus all year. If he's gone, Trevor Bauer looks like their second choice.

•All over Hultzen
•UCLA arms backup
•Could come down to money
•Willing to pay Bundy/Bubba-level cash?
•Taylor Guerreri—up on everyone's board
•Could be in position to take any pitcher they want
4. Baltimore Orioles: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK). Bundy remains strongly connected to Baltimore, but if calls over the weekend don't give them a clearer view of how much money it will take to sign Bundy, they could switch to Bauer.

•Bundy makes too much sense
•Cole backup over Bauer.
•Could have choice of many arms, money will be a factor – not pure slot, but won't go crazy
5. Kansas City Royals: Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA. The focus is on pitching, specifically guys who can catch up to their upper level prospects quickly, and Bauer fits the bill. Ignore the long-toss hype, they'll take him.

•Cole, Bundy, Bauer
•Focus on pitching—Guerreri surprise in mix, but focus is on college and quick movers
•Long toss stuff heavily overhyped
•Matt Barnes?
•Rendon, Lindor, Hutlzen, Bundy, Cole, Starling, Bauer, ??? (Archie Bradley)
•Starling thing is product of fans and media
6. Washington Nationals: Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner Edgerton HS (KS). The Nationals have seen what a high-profile prospect can do for fan interest, and they want to make another splash despite not having the top pick.

•If big guy drops, they'll pounce
•Kicking tires on Starling
•Lindor
•No Starling = best college arm
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde Academy (FL). While this pick is unprotected, Arizona is not expected to be overly conservative like some teams. That said, Archie Bradley could be too rich for their blood, and Lindor's arrival could line up well with the loss of Stephen Drew to free agency.

•Lindor could land here if signable
•Lesser college arm who will sign (Barnes, Sonny Gray)
•Bauer might be too expensive, hard to get feel for money on him.
8. Cleveland Indians: Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS (OK). The Indians are the first big wild card. They've been attached to names in every quadrant except high school bats. A high school arm is out of character, but Bradley could be too good to pass up.

•Archie Bradley – need to dig on money more
•Love UCLA arms
•Guerreri zooming
•Barnes/Springer – NO. Cleveland NOT heavy at big east tourney
•Jed Bradley? (No relation to Archie)
•Taylor Jungmann/best of college arms
9. Chicago Cubs: Taylor Guerreri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (SC). The next highly unpredictable pick in the top ten. Late rumors have the Cubs hoping a big college arm falls to them, but the highest upside high school arm could be the plan.

•Could surprise with Springer
•Not afraid of Starling
•Lindor/Baez in HS mix
•Guerreri/Bradley
•Late run on Guerreri
10. San Diego Padres: Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticut. This pick is unprotected, and Barnes fits well in this slot as a safe, affordable pitcher who could move quickly.

•Jungman/Sunny Gray
•Barnes fits well—on him at Big East tourney
•George Springer
11. Houston Astros: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt. The Astros want a pitcher, and indications are that they believe Gray can stick as a starter.

•Arms: Archie Bradley, ton of college guys
•Gray
•Jungman
•Barnes
•Jed Bradley
12. Milwaukee Brewers: George Springer, OF, Connecticut. The Brewers have been attached to nearly every arm that fits in this slot, but with literally no one who even resembles a position prospect in the system, an up-the-middle-talent with upside like Springer's could add some zip to an otherwise moribund system.

•Best player on board
•Guerreri
•Gray
•Jungman
•Really, whatever college pitcher is left
•Up the middle talent could make a difference
13. New York Mets: Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas. While many have assumed a safe college position player, their focus seems to be on pitching. Jungmann shouldn't be a difficult sign, and has the polish to breeze through the system and catch up to Matt Harvey and Juerys Familia's timetable.

•Jungman, Gray, and Barnes
•Mikie Mahtook
•Javier Baez/Levi Michael – in lead, like the SS thought
•Hearing nothing but pitching of late
•Go crazy and shock if there is a drop? Mixed.
14. Florida Marlins: Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU. While the Marlins tend to go the high school route, with their system in such dire straits it seems as if they are more focused on college players this year. One possible surprise here is Florida high school product Javier Baez.

•No way Lindor gets past them, Baez could be pan B
•Cory Spangenberg possible (might just be FLA connection)
•Mahtook/C.J. Cron for safety
•College hitter
•Heard they're downplaying risk.
15. Milwaukee Brewers: Levi Michael, SS, University of North Carolina. The Brewers will play it safe with an unprotected pick. With Yuni Betancourt in the big leagues and nothing resembling a real shortstop in the system, Michael is a bit of an overdraft but almost makes too much sense.

•Safe, college: Michael/Mahtook
•All you hear.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers: Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra HS (CA). High school southpaw Daniel Norris scared them off with his $4 million bonus demands; their financial situation will not allow for aggressiveness here. They love Stephenson, and more importantly, they can sign him.

•All over Robert Stephenson
•Norris preferred, money scared off
17. Los Angeles Angels: Javier Baez, SS, Arlington County Day School (FL). The Angels have been attached to pretty much every high school arm that fits around here, but they also are rumored to have some interest in Baez, who would be a nice find this late in the draft. A current crazy rumor has them making a run at Josh Bell, but this is too early for such a gambit.

•Baez
•Guerreri
•Daniel Norris
•Dillon Howard
•Bell? (no way)
18. Oakland Athletics: Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill HS (TN). The Athletics taking a high school pitcher in the first round? Not the best marketing move with the Moneyball movie around the corner, but they have been heavy at Norris’s games and he's clearly in the mix. If they don't want to risk taking him due to the bonus demands, junior college speedster Cory Spagenberg would be the likely pick.

•Strong on Norris, but $4 mil letter.
•Springer
•Michael
•Spangenberg
•Not on Jed Bradley
19. Boston Red Sox: Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky. The Red Sox drafted Meyer out of high school three years ago and made a big run at signing him, so the interest is certainly there and it's doubtful they will get another shot at him seven picks later.

•Best player available
•Hoping someone drops
•Could pay for Brandon Nimmo/Blake Swihart. Nimmo wants $3 mil.
•Swihart in mix, but not with first pick
20. Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah. It's very rare to hear one name connected so often with a team drafting so late in the first round, but that's the case with Cron and the Rockies. He can't run, can't throw, and can't field, but he's also the college bat most likely to hit in the middle of a big league lineup.

•College position-player focus, would love Mahtook but know it's doubtful.
•Cron?
•Cron!
•Love Cron
•Kolten Wong
21. Toronto Blue Jays: Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech. Toronto plays it notoriously close to the vest, but rumors have them looking at pitching, and Bradley is just a guy who I have to get off the board.

•Pitching—college guy who could fall, heavy on Norris
22. St. Louis Cardinals: Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy HS (AR). The Cardinals have very few names attached to them other than the usual list of high school pitching suspects expected to go in this area. Howard is a semi-local product who has gotten some attention from St. Louis. They have also been aggressive at times of late, and could make a surprising run at a big bonus player.

•Arm
•“All the usual high school suspects”
•Howard
•Could surprise, willing to spend
23. Washington Nationals: Cory Spagenberg, 3B, Indian River State. The Nationals would love to make another splash here, but Springer will cost enough as is. Athletes and upside fit the bill, and Spagenburg would slide in with that thinking.

•Wouldn't mind making splash with both picks
•Not hearing pitching, hearing more athletes
24. Tampa Bay Rays: Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (FL). Indications are that the Rays will play it safe with the first of their record-number of early picks, then take risks later. They won't be thinking under slot as much as simply the best available player who isn't expected to produce troublesome negotiations. Fernandez is a local product, and the team is very familiar with his abilities.

•Might actually be the most conservative of their picks
•Wong, Cron
•HS power arm if left, especially Fernandez
•Upside athletes come later
25. San Diego Padres: Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii. No direction on this pick, but the system is quite short on up-the-middle players. Wong could be a perfect fit.

•High school arm—several Cali names
•Stephenson
•Henry Owens
•Joe Ross
•Some movement towards up the middle player
•“Whatever is there”
26. Boston Red Sox: Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS (NM). The Red Sox usually save their big money for after the first round, but with many players dropping big bonus demands, they'll have to move a little earlier. Any high school player wanting big money is in the mix here. This could be a landing spot for Josh Bell and Brandon Nimmo as well, and they might go in a different direction at #19 hoping Meyer can still be here.

•Still looking to pounce
•If Meyer keeps falling, he goes well here or #19
•Could kick tires on Nimmo cash
•Bell could tempt
27. Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon State. The Reds seems to be looking at pitching, specifically something left from the college crop that can move quicker than a prep player. Anderson fits well here.

•Pitching, primarily focus on what's left from college.
28. Atlanta Braves: Trevor Story, SS, Irving HS (TX). The Braves seem to be focusing on high school pitching and athletes. They like local product Dwight Smith, Jr., but this is too high for him. They've been busy in Texas over the last few years, and Story is an athletic up-the-middle player that could appeal to them.

•Like Smith Jr. but willing to wait
•no way Spangenburg gets here
•Prefer arms and athletes
29. San Francisco Giants: Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (CA). I've heard nothing but high school arms here, but Tyson's younger brother has come up often.

•Joe Ross, other HS arms
•Ross
•All over Ross
30. Minnesota Twins: Kyle Winkler, RHP, Texas Christian. The Twins seems to be looking at pitching, specifically something left from the college crop, with the usual focus on fastball command. Winkler isn't the sexiest guy on a scouting level, but he's throws strikes, misses bats, and had an outstanding spring..

•Anderson fits
•Wong fits
•Winker fits
31. Tampa Bay Rays: Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami-Dade JC. The Rays are expected to focus on athletes with many of their picks, but they might stay within normal slot range here with Goodwin and hope that some of the bigger names that drop fall all the way to the supplemental round.

•High Upside Athlete
32. Tampa Bays Rays: Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Bishop Verot HS (FL). While the Rays are expected to continue their run on tools, late rumors had them interested in Vogelbach with one of their first-round picks. He fits well in a system that lacks power prospects, although a pre-draft letter indicated that he was looking for a $1.65 million bonus.

•Athlete
•definite interest in Vogelbach
33. Texas Rangers: Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State. There is some thought that the Rangers will spend big on a player like Josh Bell, but that also might be a ploy best used in the later rounds. Their location just might give them a leg up on landingBell, but Osich is a name that has been in the rumor mill for a while. One name I've yet to hear is their 2009 first-round pick, left-hander Matt Purke.

•Lots of Osich talk
•Bell, but not here—Texas connect could help chances.
•No Purke
Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby homerawayfromhome » Sun Jun 05, 2011 10:38 pm

I know it's not my money but I'd go $3.5 million for Archie Bradley if they do take him. That's $2.65 for Pomeranz and $750k for Cole Cook for perspective sake which is about $3.5. Bradley would slot in as a potential ACE and thats something this system as deep as it is doesn't boast (maybe KNAPP) and something they did make a priority to acq. when they acq. him from the Phillies. Signing a kid like Bradley would def. be good for the fan base, seeing the Tribe add a top of the rotation arm never hurts and shelling out to do so wouldn't hurt the reputation.

I'm calling the pk Archie Bradley-RHP HS Okla. True FOR potential. :yahoo:

if it's not him I'm guessing they could go Francisco Lindor-SS HS Fla. Omar version 2.0 ? :s_cool

Why 2 HS guys simply bc the depth of the system allows the brass to take a chance on a kid with superstar potential and not be rushed to develop them right away. The Tribe sign Bradley and send him out to AZ extended for awhile hold him back next yr to limit his innings and build him up slowly, no hurry but not impede his maturation and progress at the same time.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:29 pm

homerawayfromhome wrote:I know it's not my money but I'd go $3.5 million for Archie Bradley if they do take him. That's $2.65 for Pomeranz and $750k for Cole Cook for perspective sake which is about $3.5. Bradley would slot in as a potential ACE and thats something this system as deep as it is doesn't boast (maybe KNAPP) and something they did make a priority to acq. when they acq. him from the Phillies. Signing a kid like Bradley would def. be good for the fan base, seeing the Tribe add a top of the rotation arm never hurts and shelling out to do so wouldn't hurt the reputation.

I'm calling the pk Archie Bradley-RHP HS Okla. True FOR potential. :yahoo:

if it's not him I'm guessing they could go Francisco Lindor-SS HS Fla. Omar version 2.0 ? :s_cool

Why 2 HS guys simply bc the depth of the system allows the brass to take a chance on a kid with superstar potential and not be rushed to develop them right away. The Tribe sign Bradley and send him out to AZ extended for awhile hold him back next yr to limit his innings and build him up slowly, no hurry but not impede his maturation and progress at the same time.


You and I are on the same brain wave, home. Assuming Bauer is off the board, I want either Archie or Lindor. :good:
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Falcons115 » Mon Jun 06, 2011 12:31 am

this is my first post here, thought i registered awhile ago but i guess not, anyway the 3 guys, i want to Tribe to take but 2 will not be there is Dylan Bundy, Trevor Bauer, and Archie Bradley, and lately all the "draft experts" have been hearing Sonny Gray, and Jed Bradley, but i dont see as much upside in them as Bradley, so im glad people are hearing Bradley now
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby OhioBaseball » Mon Jun 06, 2011 12:39 am

I get the impression the price tag on Archie Bradley will be significantly higher than $3.5 million. I hate buying guys out of football scholarships b/c it's hollow value, but I think he may cost $5 million or so just on talent. My opinion, but Bradley compares favorably to Jameson Taillon, 2nd overall selection last year that got $6.5 million. Taillon was the 2nd overall pick, whereas the Indians pick 8th overall, so that's a difference, but both are 6'4"-6'5", strong-bodied pitchers that are athletic, can throw mid 90s and have advanced breaking balls. I'd even argue that Bradley's delivery is more simple as well as polished and he's more advanced than Taillon at similar ages. Bradley might be less projectable, but I think a fair amount of scouts would like Bradley more than Taillon, or consider them equals. I've never seen either in person, but judging off various videos, I think Taillon's delivery is a little higher effort and has more moving parts, which might contribute to command problems -- I prefer Bradley b/c that delivery should be conducive to very nice command. You could argue that Taillon got too much money from the Pirates at $6.5 million (I would argue this), but regardless the precedent has been set and it matters. I think Bradley's price tag will be in excess of $5 million. You've also got Dylan Bundy out there but he may be off the board at 8.

The question is; spend $5 million on one 18 year old, or draft and sign Jungmann for half that amount and invest the additional $2.5 million in another two HS arms that fell into later rounds (or invest that saved money in the major league team)? The Indians of yesteryear would have done the latter, but perhaps it will be different this time around?

Just me thinking out loud.

BTW, Keith Law recently said he does not expect Trevor Bauer to last beyond the third overall selection.
Last edited by OhioBaseball on Mon Jun 06, 2011 12:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Mon Jun 06, 2011 12:45 am

Falcons115 wrote:this is my first post here, thought i registered awhile ago but i guess not, anyway the 3 guys, i want to Tribe to take but 2 will not be there is Dylan Bundy, Trevor Bauer, and Archie Bradley, and lately all the "draft experts" have been hearing Sonny Gray, and Jed Bradley, but i dont see as much upside in them as Bradley, so im glad people are hearing Bradley now


Welcome to the boards! What makes you say Archie Bradley won't be available? From everything I've been reading, he'll be there. In no certain order, the six I'm hearing before us will be Cole, Rendon, Bauer, Hultzen, Bundy, Starling for sure.. then there's the one wild card kicker that I'm hearing could be Barnes or Lindor. That would leave Archie still on the board. We'll see.
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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby Rocky55 » Mon Jun 06, 2011 12:47 am

It's Draft Day on the East Coast!!!

I agree with the Archie fans. He'd be a great add to the system. Lindor...not so much(IMO, & I'm in the minority here). I like a SS with great D. I believe Lindor will be GG caliber. I'm not convinced he'll hit. If he's the pick I'll be a big fan but I think #8 is too high for a defensive specialist. Now in Round 2, with Julius Gaines available...

I mentioned Jake Lowery, a catcher from James Madison, a couple of pages ago. PG likes him a lot & says he impressed scouts with his bat speed, arm strength, & overall athletic ability. Kid hit 23HR's this year while batting close to .360 & over 80 RBI. Heard he needs help defensively, blocking balls, etc. Bet there might be somebody on the Tribe staff that could help him.


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Re: 2011 Amateur Draft

Postby A.Zajac » Mon Jun 06, 2011 12:50 am

OhioBaseball wrote:I get the impression the price tag on Archie Bradley will be significantly higher than $3.5 million. I hate buying guys out of football scholarships b/c it's hollow value, but I think he may cost $5 million or so just on talent. My opinion, but Bradley compares favorably to Jameson Taillon, 2nd overall selection last year that got $6.5 million. Taillon was the 2nd overall pick, whereas the Indians pick 8th overall, so that's a difference, but both are 6'4"-6'5", strong-bodied pitchers that are athletic, can throw mid 90s and have advanced breaking balls. I'd even argue that Bradley's delivery is more simple as well as polished and he's more advanced than Taillon at similar ages. Bradley might be less projectable, but I think a fair amount of scouts would like Bradley more than Taillon, or consider them equals. I've never seen either in person, but judging off various videos, I think Taillon's delivery is a little higher effort and has more moving parts, which might contribute to command problems -- I prefer Bradley. You could argue that Taillon got too much money from the Pirates at $6.5 million (I would argue this), but regardless the precedent has been set and it matters. I think Bradley's price tag will be in excess of $5 million. You've also got Dylan Bundy out there but he may be off the board at 8.

The question is; spend $5 million on one 18 year old, or draft and sign Jungmann for half that amount and invest the additional $2.5 million in another two HS arms that fell into later rounds (or invest that saved money in the major league team)? The Indians of yesteryear would have done the latter, but perhaps it will be different this time around?

Just me thinking out loud.

BTW, Keith Law recently said he does not expect Trevor Bauer to last beyond the third overall selection.


Disagree with you. Taillon is way ahead of where I have Archie Bradley. I really like Bradley, don't get me wrong.. but I'd take Taillon every day of the week. I also don't believe it's going to take upwards of 5 million to sign him. To me, he's a lot more signable than people think. I don't view his football scholarship as much of a road block. If I had to guess, I'd say his contract, if he ends up at 8, would be roughly $4.75 million. Dylan Bundy will be long off the board by the time we select.

I would MUCH rather take Bradley at 8 and spend the money than select Jungmann. Jungmann has been great this year in college, but I view him as a MOR starter in the bigs, where as Bradley is a FOR. Complete night and day difference, in my eyes. Definitely worth the extra cash.
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